General NHL Stuff

[cross16]

I don't think Kadri's number impacts Lindholm in anyway, his number was already pretty established and I don't think the market moved at all based on Kadri's deal. I think even before Kadri signed Lindholm already started with an 8.

 

Tomas Hertl is at 8, Couturier at 7.75 (bump in cap puts LIndholm over 8), Sebastian Aho and he are similar the last few years. 

He's out producing Kopitar (10mill), Coture (8mill) Seguin (9.25).

 

Think it was pretty wishful thinking to believe this was coming in under 8 and the Horvat deal just confirms that IMO. You can debate how much of a number 1 center Lindholm is, but what it doesn't' matter. Number 1 centers (debatable or not) are not getting less than 8 mill AAV in this marketplace and haven't for a few seasons now. 

 

The problem for the Flames is they built this team to win for the next 3-4 years and they are not going to do that without Lindholm. He really isn't' a trade option, he is a must sign based on how their team is constructed. 

[Thebrewcrew]

Just looking at Karlsson to EDM on Capfriendly's Trade Simulator. It would have to be an absolutely massive trade. 

 

Edmonton would need San Jose to retain a significant amount of money. I went with 4.6, knocking the cap hit to 6.9x5. That requires the Sharks to be on the hook for 20 some mill over the next 5 years, that will drive the cost up quite a bit. 

 

To even get the ball rolling, EDM needs to send Puljujarvi, Foegele and Yamamoto to SJ. They've combined for 34pts this year, less than half of what EK has produced, they're cap dumps. I'd guess EDM is adding at least two 1st's and probably 2nd's or 3rd's. Probably Bourgault or Schaeffer as well.

 

To add another wrinkle, SJ has to send contracts to EDM as the Sharks are right up against the 50 limit. Of course, Edmonton is capped out so it would need to be minor leaguers. 

 

Here's what I came up with.

To EDM

Karlsson @ 6.9x5

Nutivaara- he's on LTI

Scott Reedy

CJ Suess- two guys that haven't played in the NHL this year, just to make it work

 

To SJ

Warren Foegele

Jesse Puljujarvi

Kailer Yamamoto

Xavier Bourgault

2023 1st round pick

2023 2nd round pick

2024 1st round pick

 

Both teams come out of this with 600-700k in cap space. Would be pretty cool to see a massive 11 piece deal in-season. EDM might as well do it, the 23 and 24 picks are realistically 4-5 years from contributing. 97 and 29 might be out of town by then.

 

Anyway, it was a fun exercise lol

[conundrumed]

11 hours ago, Thebrewcrew said:

Just looking at Karlsson to EDM on Capfriendly's Trade Simulator. It would have to be an absolutely massive trade. 

 

Edmonton would need San Jose to retain a significant amount of money. I went with 4.6, knocking the cap hit to 6.9x5. That requires the Sharks to be on the hook for 20 some mill over the next 5 years, that will drive the cost up quite a bit. 

 

To even get the ball rolling, EDM needs to send Puljujarvi, Foegele and Yamamoto to SJ. They've combined for 34pts this year, less than half of what EK has produced, they're cap dumps. I'd guess EDM is adding at least two 1st's and probably 2nd's or 3rd's. Probably Bourgault or Schaeffer as well.

 

To add another wrinkle, SJ has to send contracts to EDM as the Sharks are right up against the 50 limit. Of course, Edmonton is capped out so it would need to be minor leaguers. 

 

Here's what I came up with.

To EDM

Karlsson @ 6.9x5

Nutivaara- he's on LTI

Scott Reedy

CJ Suess- two guys that haven't played in the NHL this year, just to make it work

 

To SJ

Warren Foegele

Jesse Puljujarvi

Kailer Yamamoto

Xavier Bourgault

2023 1st round pick

2023 2nd round pick

2024 1st round pick

 

Both teams come out of this with 600-700k in cap space. Would be pretty cool to see a massive 11 piece deal in-season. EDM might as well do it, the 23 and 24 picks are realistically 4-5 years from contributing. 97 and 29 might be out of town by then.

 

Anyway, it was a fun exercise lol

Why would SJ want Edmonton's garbage NHLers? They'd get better offers elsewhere.

[cross16]

Interesting strategy the oilers are embarking on. Basically giving up on ability to defend in order to just outscore everyone to death apparently. Bold strategy with the goaltending they have 

 

could work for sure but it’s a peculiar strategy to me. Have to be able to defend in this league to win and the oilers are already not great at it so doubling down on it with a Karlsson acquisition would be an interesting case study. 

[Thebrewcrew]

On 2/12/2023 at 7:26 AM, conundrumed said:

Why would SJ want Edmonton's garbage NHLers? They'd get better offers elsewhere.

 

[travel_dude]

3 minutes ago, Thebrewcrew said:

 

 

That is just crazy.  Barrie is a cap dump.  Pooly is a player they need to get rid of that has about a 4th rounder value on the market.  Booch is a fave of McD's.  He is the cheaper, no defense version of Larlsson.  Bougault is a Phillips level production in the AHL, well actually less.  

 

That covers about $8M of the salary they want to trade away.

Add at least a 2nd to retain anything, but more like another 1st for 4 years of retained salary.

 

[Thebrewcrew]

Just now, travel_dude said:

 

That is just crazy.  Barrie is a cap dump.  Pooly is a player they need to get rid of that has about a 4th rounder value on the market.  Booch is a fave of McD's.  He is the cheaper, no defense version of Larlsson.  Bougault is a Phillips level production in the AHL, well actually less.  

 

That covers about $8M of the salary they want to trade away.

Add at least a 2nd to retain anything, but more like another 1st for 4 years of retained salary.

 

SJ is gonna have to decide what they wanted to do.

 

6 months ago EK looked untradeable. Now he might flirt with 100pts. He won't be doing that again in SJ. Now is the chance, or they will likely be stuck with the remainder of his deal.

[travel_dude]

3 minutes ago, Thebrewcrew said:

SJ is gonna have to decide what they wanted to do.

 

6 months ago EK looked untradeable. Now he might flirt with 100pts. He won't be doing that again in SJ. Now is the chance, or they will likely be stuck with the remainder of his deal.

 

I would argue that he would have more value in the summer.

The length of his contract makes it a big ask at TDL.

Teams just can;t make those kind of trades at TDL.

At least IMHO

[conundrumed]

19 minutes ago, Thebrewcrew said:

 

Oilers fangirl Stauffer...

[Thebrewcrew]

44 minutes ago, conundrumed said:

Oilers fangirl Stauffer...

They should not be trading Bouchard.

 

Stauffer is pretty well connected with that Oiler FO so it's probably not too far-off. 

[travel_dude]

1 hour ago, Thebrewcrew said:

They should not be trading Bouchard.

 

Stauffer is pretty well connected with that Oiler FO so it's probably not too far-off. 

 

They call it a media leak.

He eats hockey for breakfast (plus a few other meals).

[The_People1]

4 hours ago, Thebrewcrew said:

 

 

Will the Sharks retain any salary if this is the trade?  Don't think the Oilers can take on the full cap hit without adding Yamamoto or something.

 

If the Sharks can offload Karlsson's entire salary/cap hit then this is a major win for them.  They are essentially getting 2 first round picks (1st + Bourgault) + two former high 1st picks (Bouchard + Puljujarvi)... Barrie is just a cap dump.  But Karlsson was once thought of as untradable and one of the worst contracts in the NHL.  To turn around and be able to get this many young assets is a huge win and a step in the right direction for their rebuild.  I hope they also get Yamamoto in the deal.

 

As for the Oilers, this is an all-in move for the next 5 years.  Karlsson is a perfect fit for what they are building to be honest.  The Oilers do lack a #1 bonafide scoring D.  And Karlsson is RHS too.  Only problem for the Oilers is they may have to keep clearing cap this summer to keep their big ticket players but who cares about the future.  They only have McDavid for 3 more years after this so just blow the whole thing up at that point.  For now, they should go for it.

[The_People1]

On 2/12/2023 at 8:46 AM, cross16 said:

Interesting strategy the oilers are embarking on. Basically giving up on ability to defend in order to just outscore everyone to death apparently. Bold strategy with the goaltending they have 

 

could work for sure but it’s a peculiar strategy to me. Have to be able to defend in this league to win and the oilers are already not great at it so doubling down on it with a Karlsson acquisition would be an interesting case study. 

 

If the rumoured players are the ones involved then the Oilers may have gotten better defensively moving from Barrie to Karlsson.  Barrie is a defensive liability all around.

 

Bouchard is still too young and prone to mistakes.

 

The only defensive player the Oilers lose would be Puljujarvi but he's a 4th liner this season.

 

All in all, I think Karlsson is the perfect target at the perfect time and a perfect fit.  You only have McDavid for 4 more runs.  You don't have 4 years for Bouchard and a 1st round pick to mature.  You can't even wait for Bourgault to be an impact player.  You go for it and then blow it all up after 4 years.

[cross16]

37 minutes ago, The_People1 said:

 

If the rumoured players are the ones involved then the Oilers may have gotten better defensively moving from Barrie to Karlsson.  Barrie is a defensive liability all around.

 

Bouchard is still too young and prone to mistakes.

 

The only defensive player the Oilers lose would be Puljujarvi but he's a 4th liner this season.

 

All in all, I think Karlsson is the perfect target at the perfect time and a perfect fit.  You only have McDavid for 4 more runs.  You don't have 4 years for Bouchard and a 1st round pick to mature.  You can't even wait for Bourgault to be an impact player.  You go for it and then blow it all up after 4 years.

 

So is Karlsson. 

 

I really hope the OIlers do that because I see that blowing up in their face personally. Karlsson has the points and it shouldn't be discounted how he's bounced back but you could argue that Bouchard is the better all around dman today. To give up him plus everything else for a soon to be 33 year old dman, i'm hear for it. 

[The_People1]

4 minutes ago, cross16 said:

 

So is Karlsson. 

 

I really hope the OIlers do that because I see that blowing up in their face personally. Karlsson has the points and it shouldn't be discounted how he's bounced back but you could argue that Bouchard is the better all around dman today. To give up him plus everything else for a soon to be 33 year old dman, i'm hear for it. 

 

Yes exactly they are both bad.  So where is the downgrade?   It's the same same to what they have.  Sideways move.  Bouchard can be replaced this season but of course he will continue to develop and become a top pair one day. That day the Oilers can't wait for.

 

I'm not saying the Oilers win the Cup with this move.  I just like the fit.  McDavid gone in 4 years.  Karlsson is at least good for 2 more years.  So they add a 90-point Dman.

[cross16]

4 minutes ago, The_People1 said:

 

Yes exactly they are both bad.  So where is the downgrade?   It's the same same to what they have.  Sideways move.  Bouchard can be replaced this season but of course he will continue to develop and become a top pair one day. That day the Oilers can't wait for.

 

I'm not saying the Oilers win the Cup with this move.  I just like the fit.  McDavid gone in 4 years.  Karlsson is at least good for 2 more years.  So they add a 90-point Dman.

 

I'm not saying it's a downgrade but my point is where does this move the needle? How does it make them a better team and a better cup contender? I think you are also underrating Bouchard here (see below)

 

If it doesn't than what's the point of giving up so many assets if you are not moving the needle?

 

 

[The_People1]

11 minutes ago, cross16 said:

 

I'm not saying it's a downgrade but my point is where does this move the needle? How does it make them a better team and a better cup contender? I think you are also underrating Bouchard here (see below)

 

If it doesn't than what's the point of giving up so many assets if you are not moving the needle?

 

 

 

Getting a 90-point player moves the needle at least a little bit, no?

[cross16]

1 minute ago, The_People1 said:

 

Getting a 90-point player moves the needle at least a little bit, no?

 

The Oilers problems are 3 fold IMO

1. They rely too much on McDavid

2. They are a below avg defending team

3. Their goaltneding is avg at best

 

The OIlers are already very good at:

1. McDavid/Draistil getting their points

2. The PP

 

Karlsson's main strengths are things the Oilers are already very good at so how does he address their deficiencies?

[travel_dude]

2 minutes ago, cross16 said:

 

The Oilers problems are 3 fold IMO

1. They rely too much on McDavid

2. They are a below avg defending team

3. Their goaltneding is avg at best

 

The OIlers are already very good at:

1. McDavid/Draistil getting their points

2. The PP

 

Karlsson's main strengths are things the Oilers are already very good at so how does he address their deficiencies?

 

It's the exact same thing they did before.  Have a good to great PP, add an offense-only D-man.  Don't hear much about Ceci being a stud now.  And you don't hear about how great an add Kulak was.  

 

The only thing Karlsson adds is name recognition.  A true #1 when he was on other teams.  Gives a nod to the guys that keep complaining the GM is hording 1st rounders and not spending on the now.  They are already paying #1 money to Nurse.  For what that team already has, they certainly don't look like a team with a guy leading the league with 97 points already.  42 goals, 97 points and he is a plus 4.  Holy crap.

[The_People1]

10 hours ago, cross16 said:

 

The Oilers problems are 3 fold IMO

1. They rely too much on McDavid

2. They are a below avg defending team

3. Their goaltneding is avg at best

 

The OIlers are already very good at:

1. McDavid/Draistil getting their points

2. The PP

 

Karlsson's main strengths are things the Oilers are already very good at so how does he address their deficiencies?

 

These are all valid points.  I would add that the Oilers also don't have a legit offensive Dman as Barrie, Ceci, and Bouchard haven't delivered consistently.  Lacking a top tier scoring D is one of their deficiencies as well.  Karlsson is in a class with Makar, Fox, etc.  He's a special player and will help alleviate dependency on McDavid to deliver all the offense.  Run support from the 2nd/3rd lines would get a tremendous boost.

 

There's the old saying that "the best defense is a good offense".  If the Oilers can land Karlsson, then they improve scoring.  The cost is their future but they don't have a future after McDavid leaves so they may as well go all in.

[cross16]

16 hours ago, The_People1 said:

 

These are all valid points.  I would add that the Oilers also don't have a legit offensive Dman as Barrie, Ceci, and Bouchard haven't delivered consistently.  Lacking a top tier scoring D is one of their deficiencies as well.  Karlsson is in a class with Makar, Fox, etc.  He's a special player and will help alleviate dependency on McDavid to deliver all the offense.  Run support from the 2nd/3rd lines would get a tremendous boost.

 

There's the old saying that "the best defense is a good offense".  If the Oilers can land Karlsson, then they improve scoring.  The cost is their future but they don't have a future after McDavid leaves so they may as well go all in.

offensively for sure but I don’t think I’d mention him with those guys. Those guys produce offense but also limit things defensively too. Karlsson gives up a ton when he’s on the ice.

 

Some fair points and I did admit it’s a case study for sure, I’m just skeptical it will work. I could be wrong but I just don’t think the outscore your opponents approach works in the playoffs. I have no problem with the oilers going all in, they really should have last year, I just think they are after the wrong target. 

[robrob74]

On 2/14/2023 at 7:53 AM, cross16 said:

 

So is Karlsson. 

 

I really hope the OIlers do that because I see that blowing up in their face personally. Karlsson has the points and it shouldn't be discounted how he's bounced back but you could argue that Bouchard is the better all around dman today. To give up him plus everything else for a soon to be 33 year old dman, i'm hear for it. 

 

how I view Karlson, a player who needs to be the only D on your team like him.  I wasn't surprised to see his improvement after Burns left. If Mc D is carrying the puck all the time, can that have an affect on Karlson's game?

[travel_dude]

6 minutes ago, robrob74 said:

 

how I view Karlson, a player who needs to be the only D on your team like him.  I wasn't surprised to see his improvement after Burns left. If Mc D is carrying the puck all the time, can that have an affect on Karlson's game?

 

I think he loves to make the stretch passes which benefits McD.

McD can just circle around in the N zone waiting for a pass.

I think he would be frustrated always just giving it to McD in the D zone.

[conundrumed]

This has turned into an Oilers thread.

[travel_dude]

4 minutes ago, conundrumed said:

This has turned into an Oilers thread.

 

Ptui