2022 Offseason

[phoenix66]

7 minutes ago, The_People1 said:

 

Would there be a conflict of interest then? 

Dave Lowry coached his own kid this year 

[The_People1]

Just now, phoenix66 said:

Dave Lowry coached his own kid this year 

 

Dave Lowry didn't sign his son's cheque though and didn't offer his son above market price to sign long term.

[Thebrewcrew]

7 minutes ago, The_People1 said:

 

Also, this draft class isn't particularly deep but by all accounts, it's stronger than last year's draft class.  There was no clear #1 last year and we saw many prospects fall.  Shane Wright would've gone #1 if he was in last year's draft.  And Slafkovksy also may have gone #1 if he was in the class of 2021.  Luke Hughes was picked #4 by the Devils who went off the board by 3 or 4 picks.  Hughes was ranked more like 6 to 8.

I think we're still seeing the effects of covid in the drafting process. There are going to be wild swings and misses, simply because lots of this kids have missed large chunks of playing time.

 

My biggest concern with having that 2nd pick is there are so many options. You could end up picking Sam Reinhart instead of Leon Draisaitl. Slafkovsky/Nemec/Jiricek/Cooley would all be in play. Who's going to be the best pro out of that group? I certainly don't know A guy like Slafkovsky has such variance, he could be a Rantanen, he could also be a Puljujarvi. If we were talking about the draft next year, you do that deal for the 2nd pick all day long. 

 

30 minutes ago, phoenix66 said:

that's why it would be First ++  , it just wouldn't be Hughes 

also if you're bringing back a bunch of salary it kind of defeats why you'd even consider it in the first place 

The Flames would have a chance to fleece NJ if this were to happen. The Devils have to win soon or the GM's job may be in jeopardy. They have missed the playoffs in 9 of 10 seasons. With now three lottery wins, there aren't anymore excuses.

 

Realistically though, I think Tkachuk signs a 4yr deal with the Flames. Giving him a shot at UFA at age 28

[sak22]

Just now, Thebrewcrew said:

 

 

Realistically though, I think Tkachuk signs a 4yr deal with the Flames. Giving him a shot at UFA at age 28

I had thought about that as well.  The expectation is the cap will finally get a decent bump in 25-26.  A 4 year deal would expire the same year as McDavid's next deal, and Draisaitl, Matthews, Marner, Mackinnon would have signed new deals.  I think by then there is a good chance there are a few contracts with a cap hit exceeding 15 million by then.  On the other side the CBA only goes to the 25-26 season, so who knows

[The_People1]

28 minutes ago, Thebrewcrew said:

Realistically though, I think Tkachuk signs a 4yr deal with the Flames. Giving him a shot at UFA at age 28

 

Why 4-year deal?  I think Tkachuk either takes 1-year and goes UFA or he signs 8-years.  Chances are he won't repeat 100-points within 4-years to get that big pay day.

[conundrumed]

I think NJ's on the right track. They aren't Buffalo. They've taken their time, that's a good up and coming team.

Like the Wings.

[The_People1]

35 minutes ago, Thebrewcrew said:

My biggest concern with having that 2nd pick is there are so many options. You could end up picking Sam Reinhart instead of Leon Draisaitl. Slafkovsky/Nemec/Jiricek/Cooley would all be in play. Who's going to be the best pro out of that group? I certainly don't know A guy like Slafkovsky has such variance, he could be a Rantanen, he could also be a Puljujarvi. If we were talking about the draft next year, you do that deal for the 2nd pick all day long. 

 

True.  This is always a valid risk. There are no guarantees. We picked Tkachuk #6 and he's panned out as good as advertised.  Can't ask for more.  It should be worth a lot.

 

I admittedly scouted this year's prospects very little because the Flames weren't picking high all season.  Outside of Shane Wright, there's going to be no gaurantees.

[LouCifer]

On 6/3/2022 at 6:01 PM, Thebrewcrew said:

This 2nd overall pick just has so much risk. You'd be selling the idea of hope to the fans in exchange for a fan favourite player. If the Flames ended up with a Kakko or Nolan Patrick out of that deal, it wouldn't be viewed as a success.

Ok, so the suggestion was 2OA++ for Chucky, but there’s risk with who you pick 2OA…

Here’s an outside thought:

What if we flipped the 2OA for a significant “right now” return? And kept the “++” for ourselves? For example: Would 2OA help us get a Chychrun out of ARZ? That would give ARZ the 2OA and 3OA in the upcoming 2022 draft. Reduces their “risk” significantly as they get 2 shots to take 2 players they like. Or maybe the 2OA helps us get another 1D elsewhere? Or maybe a bonified 2C? 
 

We could also go vice-versa. Use the ++ in a trade and keep the 2OA for ourselves!
 

Sounds like we’d have some pretty great options either way. I’m sure there’s more than one team that would covet the 2OA. Just like there’d be more than one team that would covet Chucky. 
 

edit. There’s been talk that VAN may be talking to NJ about the 2OA speculating JT Miller going the other way. 

[Thebrewcrew]

Flames obviously doing their due diligence. Interesting, because Kasper is a top 15, maybe top 15 pick

[The_People1]

2 hours ago, Thebrewcrew said:

Flames obviously doing their due diligence. Interesting, because Kasper is a top 15, maybe top 15 pick

 

Well, he was asked which teams stood out and he said Calgary and Vancouver... and then elaborated by saying they didn't ask standard questions... sounds like the Flames were just casually talking to him because there is no chance they can draft him.  The Canucks are in that range so that's surprising the Canucks didn't get serious with him a bit more.

 

But still, the fact that 30 teams talked to him suggests to me that someone in that range (12-18) is trying to trade their pick away for immediate help.  

[cross16]

On 6/3/2022 at 5:20 PM, The_People1 said:

 

Why 4-year deal?  I think Tkachuk either takes 1-year and goes UFA or he signs 8-years.  Chances are he won't repeat 100-points within 4-years to get that big pay day.

Because ask Saks pointed out its expected The cap could take a big jump in 2025. I believe the players have repaid their escrow the new TV deals are done so once the agreement to keep the cap flat expires you could see the cap jump as much as 5-10 million I’ve heard. Tkachuk may not get 100pts again but he’s still a PPG player even without this season and a PPG player in his prime entering a market where teams will be flush with cash is a nice situation for Tkachuk. 

I know we assume Tkachuk is going to want to cash in but the market really isn’t going to allow it. Even if he takes his RFA and goes to the market next year it’s still not a market that sets up well for him maximizing his dollars. Flat cap means if money is his main objective he likely isn’t going to get it from a contending team. So Tkachuk is going to need to balance winning and getting paid because j don’t this this economic situation warranting both. 
 

some risk for sure but I can see that being an option for him and his agents. I think more than a few players are going to use that strategy 

[travel_dude]

10 hours ago, The_People1 said:

 

Well, he was asked which teams stood out and he said Calgary and Vancouver... and then elaborated by saying they didn't ask standard questions... sounds like the Flames were just casually talking to him because there is no chance they can draft him.  The Canucks are in that range so that's surprising the Canucks didn't get serious with him a bit more.

 

But still, the fact that 30 teams talked to him suggests to me that someone in that range (12-18) is trying to trade their pick away for immediate help.  

 

The Flames ask that kind of stuff all the time.  They did it with Pelletier.  But, they did it because yo don't close a door before you get there.  No point in talking to Wright, though.  He's not in any conversation of the pick being traded.  

[robrob74]

I don’t get the apprehension of picking 2nd overall. Those deals rarely happen, but in the end, to me, those worried tells me you’re worried more about our scouting. If it happens then it’s up to the Flames to pick the right player. Can they get it right? 
 

The Oilers picked Draisaitl over Bennett who was supposed to go 1st overall. How many of us were laughing at them then? 
 

i get it’s a gamble. Did Pastranak fall or did Boston do some good scouting? Every team passed on Point. 
 

i get the apprehension, but isn’t this draft supposed to be one of the deepest?

 

there’s rarely moves to get into the top of the draft, if BT can do that then I’d be impressed…

[The_People1]

6 hours ago, cross16 said:

Because ask Saks pointed out its expected The cap could take a big jump in 2025. I believe the players have repaid their escrow the new TV deals are done so once the agreement to keep the cap flat expires you could see the cap jump as much as 5-10 million I’ve heard. Tkachuk may not get 100pts again but he’s still a PPG player even without this season and a PPG player in his prime entering a market where teams will be flush with cash is a nice situation for Tkachuk. 

I know we assume Tkachuk is going to want to cash in but the market really isn’t going to allow it. Even if he takes his RFA and goes to the market next year it’s still not a market that sets up well for him maximizing his dollars. Flat cap means if money is his main objective he likely isn’t going to get it from a contending team. So Tkachuk is going to need to balance winning and getting paid because j don’t this this economic situation warranting both. 
 

some risk for sure but I can see that being an option for him and his agents. I think more than a few players are going to use that strategy 

 

Tkachuk has never been point per game until this season so the risk is, all players regress back to the mean for the next four years... Johnny maybe 85-points and Tkachuk 70-points...

 

Sure, if the cap goes up, then a 70-point player can still net $9-mil-per long term so your point still stands. However, The Great Reinfection, Monkeypox, nuclear WW3, aliens, looming economic recession, US General Elections 2024 and civil war, etc.  No shortage of black swan events on the horizon.  NHL may be disrupted again soon.

 

Just saying, he's in the market for a $10-mil X 8-years right now.  He should take it.  Or take the 1-year and then go UFA to the team he wants.

[The_People1]

3 hours ago, travel_dude said:

 

The Flames ask that kind of stuff all the time.  They did it with Pelletier.  But, they did it because yo don't close a door before you get there.  No point in talking to Wright, though.  He's not in any conversation of the pick being traded.  

 

Ya no point in Wright and even Slafkovksy.  I wonder if the Flames interviewed Slafkovksy.  That would signal they are considering NJ's 2OA.  Otherwise why waste time.

[The_People1]

38 minutes ago, robrob74 said:

I don’t get the apprehension of picking 2nd overall. Those deals rarely happen, but in the end, to me, those worried tells me you’re worried more about our scouting. If it happens then it’s up to the Flames to pick the right player. Can they get it right? 
 

The Oilers picked Draisaitl over Bennett who was supposed to go 1st overall. How many of us were laughing at them then? 
 

i get it’s a gamble. Did Pastranak fall or did Boston do some good scouting? Every team passed on Point. 
 

i get the apprehension, but isn’t this draft supposed to be one of the deepest?

 

there’s rarely moves to get into the top of the draft, if BT can do that then I’d be impressed…

 

At the start of the season, this was supposed to be a deep year but I think next year's draft overshadows this year's.  Next year's is supposed to be super stacked.

 

That said, it seems this year is still better than last year.  Last year was one of the weakest in awhile.

[Thebrewcrew]

Find a new home for Lucic. Move futures if necessary. A cash-poor team will be interested.

If Monahan agrees, buy him out, if not work the phones to find a deal.

 

Gaudreau 11x8

Tkachuk 10.5x4. Allows him to be a UFA at age 28 and get another big deal

Mangiapane 5.4x5. Give him the Bjorkstrand deal.

 

The Defence could get interesting. 

 

What do you do with Kylington? Do the Flames commit to him? He's only a year away from being a UFA. If someone offers a pair of picks, would you move him? Mackey and Valimaki are both waiver eligible next year, maybe they could sneak Valimaki through waivers in camp, but it's a risk. Could one of them benefit from the "Tanev bump"? That being said, Tanev could miss up to a quarter of next year. Might need to sign two RHD in UFA. There are some options, the Flames could re-sign Kylington and Gudbranson, or they could deal Kylington and spend 3.5-4.2 on a Zadorov/Chiarot/Manson.

 

Flames could start the season looking like, without Tanev

Hanifin-Andersson                       Or            Hanifin-Andersson

Kylington-Stone                                           Mackey-Manson/Other UFA

Mackey/Valimaki-Gudbranson                     Valimaki-Stone

[sak22]

44 minutes ago, robrob74 said:

I don’t get the apprehension of picking 2nd overall. Those deals rarely happen, but in the end, to me, those worried tells me you’re worried more about our scouting. If it happens then it’s up to the Flames to pick the right player. Can they get it right? 
 

The Oilers picked Draisaitl over Bennett who was supposed to go 1st overall. How many of us were laughing at them then? 
 

i get it’s a gamble. Did Pastranak fall or did Boston do some good scouting? Every team passed on Point. 
 

i get the apprehension, but isn’t this draft supposed to be one of the deepest?

 

there’s rarely moves to get into the top of the draft, if BT can do that then I’d be impressed…

I'm not worried about our scouting, I just don't feel that strongly about this draft.  If we look at Tkachuk for example was #6 but 6 years in has outproduced the #2 from his draft by a pretty decent margin, along with #3,#4, and #5, probably not a team in the league would've taken Tkachuk over Laine back then.  As down as people get on Tkachuk, we should really be grateful he fell to us.  There are a lot of #2's who haven't been as productive as Tkachuk.  

[Thebrewcrew]

6 minutes ago, sak22 said:

I'm not worried about our scouting, I just don't feel that strongly about this draft.  If we look at Tkachuk for example was #6 but 6 years in has outproduced the #2 from his draft by a pretty decent margin, along with #3,#4, and #5, probably not a team in the league would've taken Tkachuk over Laine back then.  As down as people get on Tkachuk, we should really be grateful he fell to us.  There are a lot of #2's who haven't been as productive as Tkachuk.  

I love the draft, really enjoying following the progression of young players. If Tkachuk was traded for 2nd overall, it would lead to some fascinating discussions though.

 

I just don't think the Flames would make that trade right now. I'm of the belief that Gaudreau is gonna wait until the final few days before UFA to decide if he stays or goes. The Draft is a week before UFA, if the Flames deal Tkachuk for the 2nd overall pick, it makes it that much more difficult to sign Gaudreau. Whether or not that's the right decision is entirely up for debate though.

[conundrumed]

I definitely want to keep Kylington. He really just broke out as a 24yo. Just turned 25.

I understand the gaffes but I'd also call it his 1st real NHL season so there will naturally be more progression in just getting smarter with experience.

Clean up his D with smarter reads, likely needs to figure out how to let the game come to him better. Also needs to read when he's too fast carrying the puck. Take that extra 2nd to see your options and he's still fast but reading the ice better.

I have a hard time believing we'd be selling high. Alternatively, he's just breaking out and will continue to progress is my opinion.

Sutter told him to come to camp ready, and dude came ripped.

The shoulder injury hampered him, I believe.

Not a fan of trading guys we brought up, showing progression an doing everything asked.

Kyl

Z

Gudbranson for me, in that order.

I'd move Hanifin, personally.

[LouCifer]

2 hours ago, conundrumed said:

I'd move Hanifin, personally.

 

He was solid all year for us, but I agree. He was more exposed come playoffs. 

[sak22]

I'm in no rush to move Hanifin this year.  Personally it was Kylington's random falling over that drove me crazy, I don't have much trust in giving that guy an increased role.  I give Hanifin another year, if you can get similar production you gotta take that for his cap hit, after next year you look to move him as the next contract could be ugly thanks to Kenny's gift to Darnell.

[travel_dude]

3 hours ago, conundrumed said:

I'd move Hanifin, personally.

 

4 minutes ago, LouCifer said:

 

He was solid all year for us, but I agree. He was more exposed come playoffs. 

 

Hanifin was one of the guys you noticed for a lot of different things.  His gaffes leading to game losing goals or momentum shifting ones.  His adept shots from the point that created goals.  His inability to hold the O-zone and resulting odd-man rushes.  His wasted PP minutes.

 

Remove the blatant negatives and I am more of a Hani-fan.

Unfortunately, his game is so entrenched that improvement is unlikely.

He's never going to be an actual 1/2 guy.

Replacing him makes sense if we get at least a #2.

 

I would love to keep the D we had, and unless we upgrade the top LD, continue with all.

Zaddy was a nice surprise given the minutes and usage.

Guddy was solid and we need at least him to make up for a delayed start for Tanev.

We would have surplus on LD but none on RD.

Valimaki, Mackey, Kuz and Poirier all in various stages of development.

If Manson was available for cheap, that would be another RD to explore.

Some holes in his game, but solid most times.

Not worth $4m but who knows.

[The_People1]

3 hours ago, conundrumed said:

I definitely want to keep Kylington. He really just broke out as a 24yo. Just turned 25.

I understand the gaffes but I'd also call it his 1st real NHL season so there will naturally be more progression in just getting smarter with experience.

Clean up his D with smarter reads, likely needs to figure out how to let the game come to him better. Also needs to read when he's too fast carrying the puck. Take that extra 2nd to see your options and he's still fast but reading the ice better.

I have a hard time believing we'd be selling high. Alternatively, he's just breaking out and will continue to progress is my opinion.

Sutter told him to come to camp ready, and dude came ripped.

The shoulder injury hampered him, I believe.

Not a fan of trading guys we brought up, showing progression an doing everything asked.

Kyl

Z

Gudbranson for me, in that order.

I'd move Hanifin, personally.

 

Hanifin just turned 25.  You may want to compared both resumes side by side to see who has built up a solid base to propel further.  You can even compare who looked better paired with Tanev.  

 

And I'm not even a huge fan of Hanifin..  if we can move him for an upgrade, then I wouldn't hesitate.  But Hanifin is a solid 2nd pair guy who has been asked to play above his talents like, for example, stop McDavid.  Kylington isn't even good enough to be asked to do such things.

 

If any team believes Kylington is a late bloomers and can develop into a top pair Dman then let them trade us the assets.

[cross16]

19 hours ago, The_People1 said:

 

Tkachuk has never been point per game until this season so the risk is, all players regress back to the mean for the next four years... Johnny maybe 85-points and Tkachuk 70-points...

 

Sure, if the cap goes up, then a 70-point player can still net $9-mil-per long term so your point still stands. However, The Great Reinfection, Monkeypox, nuclear WW3, aliens, looming economic recession, US General Elections 2024 and civil war, etc.  No shortage of black swan events on the horizon.  NHL may be disrupted again soon.

 

Just saying, he's in the market for a $10-mil X 8-years right now.  He should take it.  Or take the 1-year and then go UFA to the team he wants.

 

While not technically a PPG he was right there. 77 in 80 in in 2019 and then followed it up with 61 in 69 in 2020. There seems to be a theme developing that this pervious season was out of character for Tkachuk but it really wasn't. In a more defensive role and not on the top line he had back to back season of basically PPG play so even if he "reverts to the mean" the mean he has established is one of a top line player. 

 

I'm not disputing that he should look long term, I just think there is room for a conversation with a short team deal and then a long term deal in a rising cap. He could probably swing a 3 year 8-9 Mill AVV deal and then still be in position for 7 or 8 year deal with an AAV of 9+ IMO so it does wind up being more money. 

 

All i'm saying is I don't think it's as simple as he takes a 1 year deal or a long term deal. There is plenty of room for conversation in between those 2 scenarios.