2022 Offseason

[travel_dude]

7 minutes ago, cross16 said:

 

While not technically a PPG he was right there. 77 in 80 in in 2019 and then followed it up with 61 in 69 in 2020. There seems to be a theme developing that this pervious season was out of character for Tkachuk but it really wasn't. In a more defensive role and not on the top line he had back to back season of basically PPG play so even if he "reverts to the mean" the mean he has established is one of a top line player. 

 

I'm not disputing that he should look long term, I just think there is room for a conversation with a short team deal and then a long term deal in a rising cap. He could probably swing a 3 year 8-9 Mill AVV deal and then still be in position for 7 or 8 year deal with an AAV of 9+ IMO so it does wind up being more money. 

 

All i'm saying is I don't think it's as simple as he takes a 1 year deal or a long term deal. There is plenty of room for conversation in between those 2 scenarios. 

 

His outlier seasons were 48, 49, and 41 points.

He's otherwise, as you suggest, mostly a p/gp player.

Finally, he plays top line and his points were reflected in it.

 

Even if signing a 1 year deal makes some sense to walk to FA, there is risk.

As you suggest, he can get close to $9M over three.

In that case, there is likely more money in the long run.

Signing him to 8 years now would be a high ask from his camp.

Less likely to be discounted in the final years.

 

I'm just concerned that we can ice a good team with all the money needed.

I liked the team we brought into the playoffs.

Need to somehow replace Monahan's contract and position.

Heard the suggestion of buying him out then signing him to a league minimum contract.

Sort of like what we did with Stone.

Allows us to have him as a 3C or 4C option depending on how he recovers.

I doubt we can get Jarnkrok for less than $2.5M.

   

[The_People1]

21 minutes ago, cross16 said:

 

While not technically a PPG he was right there. 77 in 80 in in 2019 and then followed it up with 61 in 69 in 2020. There seems to be a theme developing that this pervious season was out of character for Tkachuk but it really wasn't. In a more defensive role and not on the top line he had back to back season of basically PPG play so even if he "reverts to the mean" the mean he has established is one of a top line player. 

 

I'm not disputing that he should look long term, I just think there is room for a conversation with a short team deal and then a long term deal in a rising cap. He could probably swing a 3 year 8-9 Mill AVV deal and then still be in position for 7 or 8 year deal with an AAV of 9+ IMO so it does wind up being more money. 

 

All i'm saying is I don't think it's as simple as he takes a 1 year deal or a long term deal. There is plenty of room for conversation in between those 2 scenarios. 

 

I think he's getting $10 x 8 right now.  No need to take 8-9 for 3 and then take $9+ x 7 later.  I mean, I guess it all comes down to the offer the Flames are making right now.  If it's $10 x 8, then there's no reason to do 1, 3 or any length other than 8.

[robrob74]

4 hours ago, conundrumed said:

I definitely want to keep Kylington. He really just broke out as a 24yo. Just turned 25.

I understand the gaffes but I'd also call it his 1st real NHL season so there will naturally be more progression in just getting smarter with experience.

Clean up his D with smarter reads, likely needs to figure out how to let the game come to him better. Also needs to read when he's too fast carrying the puck. Take that extra 2nd to see your options and he's still fast but reading the ice better.

I have a hard time believing we'd be selling high. Alternatively, he's just breaking out and will continue to progress is my opinion.

Sutter told him to come to camp ready, and dude came ripped.

The shoulder injury hampered him, I believe.

Not a fan of trading guys we brought up, showing progression an doing everything asked.

Kyl

Z

Gudbranson for me, in that order.

I'd move Hanifin, personally.

 

the other thing is, he was bound to get tired (my theory) because he’s played so little hockey in the last 2-3 years. While he’d have a lot “in the tank,” I think an 82+ game season is a grind. I think it’s why we saw a dip after the mid point. Also, the game is just so different after that too. Everything ramps up and everyone gets serious.

[travel_dude]

7 minutes ago, The_People1 said:

 

I think he's getting $10 x 8 right now.  No need to take 8-9 for 3 and then take $9+ x 7 later.  I mean, I guess it all comes down to the offer the Flames are making right now.  If it's $10 x 8, then there's no reason to do 1, 3 or any length other than 8.

Unless Gaudreau is over $11M, Tkachuk should not come in over $9.9M.  

That's an opinion of course. 

The reason he signs for less than 8 years is due to the increasing cap in future years.

If he signs now for 8, he's 32 in his final season and unlikely to get $9M after that.

If he does a 3 year deal now, his 8 years will be higher when averaging the 11 years.  

 

If Tkachuk signs a 3 year deal, in effect it would be like Gaudreau last contract.  Allows him to sign a future deal for more money.

[travel_dude]

4 minutes ago, robrob74 said:

 

the other thing is, he was bound to get tired (my theory) because he’s played so little hockey in the last 2-3 years. While he’d have a lot “in the tank,” I think an 82+ game season is a grind. I think it’s why we saw a dip after the mid point. Also, the game is just so different after that too. Everything ramps up and everyone gets serious.

 

He had a few injuries over the course of the 2nd half.

Strangely enough, his play dropped off.

Possible concussion.

Possible shoulder injury.

With Tanev out for round 2, there was no way he would be comfortable.

Think of what Hanifin would be without Ras.

 

Overall, Kyl was +5 for the playoffs, and only a minus in one game (-1).

Not the biggest problem we had.

[cross16]

1 hour ago, The_People1 said:

 

I think he's getting $10 x 8 right now.  No need to take 8-9 for 3 and then take $9+ x 7 later.  I mean, I guess it all comes down to the offer the Flames are making right now.  If it's $10 x 8, then there's no reason to do 1, 3 or any length other than 8.

 

 

I don't think the Flames should be offering 10 though. 

 

I'm really struggling with the idea that Tkachuk is worth more than Kucherov, Stone and Mikko Rantanen and I think in a flat cap environment for the next 3 years just giving him whatever he wants is really challenging. I think there needs to be an acknowledgment from the player that if you want to play in great markets and for good teams you need to have some flexibility. Now I do understand the Marner contract is what throws a wrench in this but at the same time he signed that in a rising cap environment pre COVID so I think there needs to be some acknowledgment from the player that certain comps just won't work. That is why I mention the idea of differerent lengths. 

 

yes yes I know "Tkachuk's don't take discounts" and i won't pretend to know either way but I'm also not really suggesting he takes a discount i'm suggesting that he look at more recent comparable and not chase every single penny he can

[The_People1]

1 hour ago, cross16 said:

 

 

I don't think the Flames should be offering 10 though. 

 

I'm really struggling with the idea that Tkachuk is worth more than Kucherov, Stone and Mikko Rantanen and I think in a flat cap environment for the next 3 years just giving him whatever he wants is really challenging. I think there needs to be an acknowledgment from the player that if you want to play in great markets and for good teams you need to have some flexibility. Now I do understand the Marner contract is what throws a wrench in this but at the same time he signed that in a rising cap environment pre COVID so I think there needs to be some acknowledgment from the player that certain comps just won't work. That is why I mention the idea of differerent lengths. 

 

yes yes I know "Tkachuk's don't take discounts" and i won't pretend to know either way but I'm also not really suggesting he takes a discount i'm suggesting that he look at more recent comparable and not chase every single penny he can

 

100% about Kucherov, Stone, and Rantanen.

 

I did mention Point ($9.5m) and Barkov ($10m) contracts earlier in the thread.  They were both freshly signed last summer and their career totals are very comparable to Tkachuk.  All 3 are in the "virtually point per game" category.  Point and Barkov play Center so it's a more valuable position so there's that.  But Tkachuk brings valuable intangibles few in the league can match too so there's that as well.

 

I understand the whole "contracts only go up every year" argument so there's always an advantage to take a 4-year deal and then go at it again for more money.

 

I'm just saying, 40-goal and 104-points is $10-mil money any day of the week.  A regression to the mean for Tkachuk (30-G 75-pts) would put Tkachuk back into the $8-mil range.  He should cash in now since the market perception is that he is a 100-point player.  There's not much more to prove over the next 4-years that could raise his value that much more.  100-points is such an elite achievement and so hard to consistently produce.

[LouCifer]

24 minutes ago, The_People1 said:

100% about Kucherov, Stone, and Rantanen.

I'm just saying, 40-goal and 104-points is $10-mil money any day of the week.  A regression to the mean for Tkachuk (30-G 75-pts) would put Tkachuk back into the $8-mil range.  WE should cash in now since the market perception is that he is a 100-point player.  There's not much more to prove over the next 4-years that could raise his value that much more.  100-points is such an elite achievement and so hard to consistently produce.

 

Fixed 👍

[The_People1]

6 minutes ago, LouCifer said:

 

Fixed 👍

 

Yes, or this.

 

NJ fans are suggesting 2OA + Zacha + Stillman + Mukhamadullin for Tkachuk.

 

I would like 2OA + either Luke Hughes or Dawson Mercer 

[sak22]

41 minutes ago, The_People1 said:

 

I'm just saying, 40-goal and 104-points is $10-mil money any day of the week.  A regression to the mean for Tkachuk (30-G 75-pts) would put Tkachuk back into the $8-mil range.  He should cash in now since the market perception is that he is a 100-point player.  There's not much more to prove over the next 4-years that could raise his value that much more.  100-points is such an elite achievement and so hard to consistently produce.

[cross16]

23 hours ago, robrob74 said:

I don’t get the apprehension of picking 2nd overall. Those deals rarely happen, but in the end, to me, those worried tells me you’re worried more about our scouting. If it happens then it’s up to the Flames to pick the right player. Can they get it right? 
 

The Oilers picked Draisaitl over Bennett who was supposed to go 1st overall. How many of us were laughing at them then? 
 

i get it’s a gamble. Did Pastranak fall or did Boston do some good scouting? Every team passed on Point. 
 

i get the apprehension, but isn’t this draft supposed to be one of the deepest?

 

there’s rarely moves to get into the top of the draft, if BT can do that then I’d be impressed…

 

Not really. Trading an established star for a high pick is the ultimate mystery box challenge. I mean they could draft another Tkachuk right? Just like they've always wanted.

 

There is a lot that goes into picking a player that is outside the team's control so I don't think it's as simple as just "get it right". I don't necessarily have apprehension about trading Tkachuk for the number 2 pick but it should be understood that the odds of you using that pick and getting a player who is as good as Tkachuk are not super high and they are pretty low that you get a player who is better. For that reason, I don't really understand the point behind this. I understand the cap element of this, in terms of moving the salary, but that falls a little flat for me. You are not replacing Tkachuk in FA and even if you want to try you are likely going to wind up paying almost as much (or the same) for an inferior talent or worse contract. 

 

If you are talking the number 2 pick plus then ok but I also think we should temper expectations on what NJ would give up in addition to that pick. I don't see NJ giving up the number 2 pick AND more high end prospects. 

[travel_dude]

41 minutes ago, The_People1 said:

 

Yes, or this.

 

NJ fans are suggesting 2OA + Zacha + Stillman + Mukhamadullin for Tkachuk.

 

I would like 2OA + either Luke Hughes or Dawson Mercer 

 

Nothing against an unsigned NCAA player, but he "might" wait and go UFA if we traded for his rights.

A chance to play with his brother.

He's also a D, so it would take time to see the value.

Mercer on the other hand seems to be already headed in the right direction.

They would be stupid to trade him.

[cross16]

1 hour ago, The_People1 said:

 

Yes, or this.

 

NJ fans are suggesting 2OA + Zacha + Stillman + Mukhamadullin for Tkachuk.

 

I would like 2OA + either Luke Hughes or Dawson Mercer 

 

That's pretty reasonable honestly. I struggle to see NJ offering more than that. 

 

Flames shouldn't take it though. 

[phoenix66]

1 hour ago, The_People1 said:

 

Yes, or this.

 

NJ fans are suggesting 2OA + Zacha + Stillman + Mukhamadullin for Tkachuk.

 

I would like 2OA + either Luke Hughes or Dawson Mercer 

Something like that..

Remember , the only reason I brought up the point ..and the only reason the flames should/could consider it ..is the big picture 

In a perfect world we keep everybody..but that can't happen 

We sign Johnny, Matthew and to a lesser extent Mangiapane.. now we are crunched trying to fill 2-3 d spots and still need a #2 center ..we become like Edmonton and past seasons Toronto..top heavy with only a couple dmen who deserve their slotting 

 

Moving Tkachuk. For a low payroll return..(20oa.top.prospects etc) that's right away $9m minimum we don't pay next year .. that's a player like Kadri obtained with no assets out the door (or use another name .he's just the best example of a player i want there )

Now if you still want another top pair D , like a Chycrun..you still have assets to move that you didn't have to move in the center deal.. ..

 

Also..love the guy , again I'd have no qualms keeping him in a perfect world ..but we've seen the kind of speed we need to beat an Edmonton..a Colorado.. and he doesn't have it ..

He makes up for it in many ways , but hand injury or not once that speed racheted up against Edmonton he was a Step behind ..  but I'd only start to agree with a move like that In a situation like NJ could present 

 

I don't buy the "Johnny won't sign if x player is moved " ..he just want to see we are still committed to winning 

[Thebrewcrew]

1 hour ago, phoenix66 said:

 

I don't buy the "Johnny won't sign if x player is moved " ..he just want to see we are still committed to winning 

What does it say to Gaudreau if you move the best winger he's ever had though? 

 

If Gaudreau stays, it's because this is his best chance to win. Trading Tkachuk hurts the team in the immediacy, the Flames aren't replacing him in UFA.  Gaudreau is 28 and hasn't played on too many good teams, if they trade Tkachuk they will take a step-back in 22/23. He can go play on a mediocre team closer to home.

 

 

[redfire11]

3 hours ago, The_People1 said:

NJ fans are suggesting 2OA + Zacha + Stillman + Mukhamadullin for Tkachuk.

Wow excellent suggested return that would be for Tkachuk

NJ 2OA  Could trade down get back a lower 1st and a decent player

Zacha Might be a tough contract to do but could potentially be a #2 center

Stillman A potential top RW Power forward 

Mukham Big future russian D when we move on to another world distraction

 

As Peep's said there are other NJ prospects that are more preferable but ??? 

[phoenix66]

Another factor to consider .. is Chucky is a ripe offer sheet candidate .

Boston is missing their top line and has the room and picks , NJ and islanders have as well.. St Louis could easily clear a bit of room and they have the picks ..

Somebody offers him anything over 10.5 x7 there is no way we shouid match that.. I could see an offer of 12 over a shorter term , knowing we'd be silly to match it 

[phoenix66]

1 minute ago, Thebrewcrew said:

What does it say to Gaudreau if you move the best winger he's ever had though? 

 

If Gaudreau stays, it's because this is his best chance to win. Trading Tkachuk hurts the team in the immediacy, the Flames aren't replacing him in UFA.  Gaudreau is 28 and hasn't played on too many good teams, if they trade Tkachuk they will take a step-back in 22/23. He can go play on a mediocre team closer to home.

 

 

And brings in a player that makes us even better?

If we're so worried about his allegiances I'd be more worried about moving his best buddy Monahan if that were the case ..

 

Also.. if losing Chucky meant we get a Kadri and a Chycrun? (As example ) we're a better team 

[Thebrewcrew]

Just now, phoenix66 said:

And brings in a player that makes us even better?

If we're so worried about his allegiances I'd be more worried about moving his best buddy Monahan if that were the case ..

 

Also.. if losing Chucky meant we get a Kadri and a Chycrun? (As example ) we're a better team 

The 2nd overall pick isn't likely playing in the NHL this season. So you'd be talking about 2-4 seasons from now that pick is an impact maker.

 

The best free agents will never pick CGY over 31 other markets. Markstrom was a very rare exception due to his connection with Lindholm. Kadri had his chance to be a Flame and he vetoed it. Anyway, the Flames should stay away, he's going to be 32 and ask for 7-8 on a long term deal. Won't age well.

 

Regarding your last post, a 10.5x7 offersheet for Tkachuk will never happen. The compensation for that equals four 1st rounders. 

[phoenix66]

14 minutes ago, Thebrewcrew said:

The 2nd overall pick isn't likely playing in the NHL this season. So you'd be talking about 2-4 seasons from now that pick is an impact maker.

 

The best free agents will never pick CGY over 31 other markets. Markstrom was a very rare exception due to his connection with Lindholm. Kadri had his chance to be a Flame and he vetoed it. Anyway, the Flames should stay away, he's going to be 32 and ask for 7-8 on a long term deal. Won't age well.

 

Regarding your last post, a 10.5x7 offersheet for Tkachuk will never happen. The compensation for that equals four 1st rounders. 

He was perfectly willing to play in Calgary only vetoed it cuz he thought it meant he'd stay in Toronto..  but again he's just an example ..

And don't kid yourself ..teams like Boston, NYI, St Louis ..don't care about first rounders..they're in it to win it every year .. other teams can pay it too but I'm making the assumption he'd only sign it if it's a winning team 

I'd be most worried about Boston..they have the room and the picks and their best players are out for the first few months of the season 

He's totally the player some team wouid take a serious run at .. he's good and teams know we don't have the room to match a too high offer 

 

Also , we don't care about 3-5 years down the road . Our window to win is now , and Kadri helps us do that 

[Thebrewcrew]

21 minutes ago, phoenix66 said:

He was perfectly willing to play in Calgary only vetoed it cuz he thought it meant he'd stay in Toronto..  but again he's just an example ..

And don't kid yourself ..teams like Boston, NYI, St Louis ..don't care about first rounders..they're in it to win it every year .. other teams can pay it too but I'm making the assumption he'd only sign it if it's a winning team 

I'd be most worried about Boston..they have the room and the picks and their best players are out for the first few months of the season 

He's totally the player some team wouid take a serious run at .. he's good and teams know we don't have the room to match a too high offer 

 

Also , we don't care about 3-5 years down the road . Our window to win is now , and Kadri helps us do that 

Tkachuk has to sign that offersheet though. He said in 2019 that he never considered signing one. Although whether or not one was on the table for him was never confirmed. 

 

The only team that would be of concern is STL, but unles they're giving up four #1's it's a number the Flames can match.

[phoenix66]

3 minutes ago, Thebrewcrew said:

Tkachuk has to sign that offersheet though. He said in 2019 that he never considered signing one. Although whether or not one was on the table for him was never confirmed. 

 

The only team that would be of concern is STL, but unles they're giving up four #1's it's a number the Flames can match.

If they make An offer it will be a high one with the picks ..teams know we will totally match anything up to the 10.x mark .. anything less than that and they've done us a favor 

 

2019 he wasnt the player he is now 

[cross16]

1 hour ago, phoenix66 said:

Another factor to consider .. is Chucky is a ripe offer sheet candidate .

Boston is missing their top line and has the room and picks , NJ and islanders have as well.. St Louis could easily clear a bit of room and they have the picks ..

Somebody offers him anything over 10.5 x7 there is no way we shouid match that.. I could see an offer of 12 over a shorter term , knowing we'd be silly to match it 

 

I don't think there is a team out there giving up 4 first round picks for Tkachuk. Bruins gave up their first this year for Lindholm so do this would be giving up 5 years of first round draft picks. 

 

No chance that happens IMO. 

[phoenix66]

4 minutes ago, cross16 said:

 

I don't think there is a team out there giving up 4 first round picks for Tkachuk. 

he's a 100pt winger just coming into his prime in the Mould of a Brad Marchand. to some teams he'd be a franchise player . I could see it , especially knowing there's a high chance we cant match 

and the teams that are most lethal are ones that trade away their firsts on a regular basis 

[The_People1]

1 hour ago, Thebrewcrew said:

The 2nd overall pick isn't likely playing in the NHL this season. So you'd be talking about 2-4 seasons from now that pick is an impact maker.

 

For this reason alone, we might as well full rebuild if we lose one of Gaudreau or Tkachuk because,

1. There is no equivalent or better upgrade via UFA.

2. If it's picks and prospects, then we're talking "years" before that player(s) can make an impact.

 

Which goes back to this past TDL.  If the plan all along was to rebuild then BT needs to get fired for not moving Gaudreau at the deadline for picks and now watching him walk away for nothing.