Blow It Up?

[robrob74]

6 hours ago, travel_dude said:

 

Pretty harsh.

Part of winning is being able to steal a game, and stay in the other games.

We did.

Yeah, there was a meltdown when we brought in Rittich.

2 goals should never have gone in.

Good team lose.

Bad teams don't belong.

Not saying we would be beating VGK, as they are a superior team in the West.

Then again, it's hard to get a sense of what the team is capable of.

I don't buy into the line that Dallas was just getting rolling.

They had a better defense for jumping into the play.

Ours had trouble exiting the zone.

There's your difference.

Fix the defense and this team could easily be considered a contender.

 

 

 

that’s where it’s easier said than done. Every other team wants to fix their defence. Most of the time defence is drafted and high end guys get them in a trade. 
 

can you use Monahan or Gaudreau to fix it? Is Lindholm basically a slightly better than Monahan at C? 

[The_People1]

2 hours ago, travel_dude said:

 

I don't think they are "satisfied".

They are willing to write big cheques to get FA's.

And buy out blunders.

But again, how do you improve enough to be a contender?

Need a solid #1D.

Not easy to get unless you trade a top player or sign in FA.

A decent goalie.

Well, you could say we had 2.

Not quite at the Lehner level, but good.

An impact forward.

Again, what do you have to give to get?

 

A rebuild is fine, but you need to keep some players that are young enough to become the vets.

Trading away Monahan and Guadreau only compounds the problem.

 

Ownership has no patience spending time rebuilding in the basement of the league.  They are satisfied in this range, even if it means never winning a Cup again. They would rather look for the next GM to take a mediocre team to the next level than to take a mediocre team through a rebuild again.

 

There's no appetite for a rebuild... a proper rebuild.

[cross16]

While likely wind up into a debate on semantics but I would agree I don't think the owners are "satisfied" or are simply in the business of making money. I am with Peeps though that they are just impatient and not willing to see multiple losing seasons and the potential of losing fans. 

 

I've said this before, but I think the 04 run had a big impact on Murray Edwards. if you have a good core you can get lucky with the right acquisition (Kipper) you can have a run. They are not willing to pass that up for years of being out of the playoffs and having no chance. 

 

My take anyway. 

[sak22]

34 minutes ago, The_People1 said:

 

Ownership has no patience spending time rebuilding in the basement of the league.  They are satisfied in this range, even if it means never winning a Cup again. They would rather look for the next GM to take a mediocre team to the next level than to take a mediocre team through a rebuild again.

 

There's no appetite for a rebuild... a proper rebuild.

There isn't an ownership group in the league that has patience, for a "proper rebuild" this isn't an exclusive Flames only thing. At least I haven't seen one.

[cross16]

14 minutes ago, sak22 said:

There isn't an ownership group in the league that has patience, for a "proper rebuild" this isn't an exclusive Flames only thing. At least I haven't seen one.

 

Well i guess it depends on how you define rebuild but in recent memory alone I can think of Toronto, Edmonton, Winnipeg, Rangers and now the Red Wings that have all either publicly declared themselves in a rebuild or actions speak to a patient rebuild as opposed to wanting to get back into the playoffs every year (as members of the Flames have). 

 

In the past Tampa is another franchise to was willing to do a more patient rebuild (ie be more patient and not chase big deals to get into the playoffs the next year)

 

 

[sak22]

42 minutes ago, cross16 said:

 

Well i guess it depends on how you define rebuild but in recent memory alone I can think of Toronto, Edmonton, Winnipeg, Rangers and now the Red Wings that have all either publicly declared themselves in a rebuild or actions speak to a patient rebuild as opposed to wanting to get back into the playoffs every year (as members of the Flames have). 

 

In the past Tampa is another franchise to was willing to do a more patient rebuild (ie be more patient and not chase big deals to get into the playoffs the next year)

 

 

Well I'd say, Toronto and New York expedited theirs with the Leafs signing Tavares while their 2 biggest guys were on ELC's, Rangers did the same with Panarin and lucked out pretty big on the lotto this year, also Toronto and New York are on a different stratosphere with market and team value.  So I would say their words and actions are quite different.

 

Detroit is now in one, but they made every effort to hang on to their old glory with Holland so much they are riddled with unmovable deals.  I don't even want to get into it with Edmonton I still remember when they were touting and up and coming team of Cogliano, Gagner and Tom Gilbert with their big UFA signings to push them over the top of Khabibulin and Souray with Pat Quinn as HC, and Winnipeg probably couldn't even be a player in UFA if they wanted to they are essentially the Tampa Bay Rays of the NHL.  Tampa Bay I'd give you that one, but the ownership there changed like 3 times in 4 years, Koules and Barrie had started it and got them Hedman and Stamkos, but seemed like they would have been on a different path had they kept the team, Vinik to his credit stayed the course despite being one win away from the finals in 2011.

[cross16]

6 minutes ago, sak22 said:

Well I'd say, Toronto and New York expedited theirs with the Leafs signing Tavares while their 2 biggest guys were on ELC's, Rangers did the same with Panarin and lucked out pretty big on the lotto this year, also Toronto and New York are on a different stratosphere with market and team value.  So I would say their words and actions are quite different.

 

Detroit is now in one, but they made every effort to hang on to their old glory with Holland so much they are riddled with unmovable deals.  I don't even want to get into it with Edmonton I still remember when they were touting and up and coming team of Cogliano, Gagner and Tom Gilbert with their big UFA signings to push them over the top of Khabibulin and Souray with Pat Quinn as HC, and Winnipeg probably couldn't even be a player in UFA if they wanted to they are essentially the Tampa Bay Rays of the NHL.  Tampa Bay I'd give you that one, but the ownership there changed like 3 times in 4 years, Koules and Barrie had started it and got them Hedman and Stamkos, but seemed like they would have been on a different path had they kept the team, Vinik to his credit stayed the course despite being one win away from the finals in 2011.

 

Good points. Chicago is another club i would add to the list that were patient in accumulating assets. 

 

I guess to add context to my original point and my criticism of the Flames ownership group. From everything i've seen/read/heard the Flames owners will tolerate 1 bad season but the mandate is to get back into the playoffs the next year. They are not okay with multiple losing seasons in order to accumulate the assets or being patient with it taking upwards of 3 seasons to get back into contention. That, IMO, is on the impatient side of things and can be detrimental to a franchise long term if your goal is to win and win on a consistent basis. I don't think the Flames owner are content to to slow play a rebuild like some of those other clubs i listed did. So this is where you get into a bit of debate of want quantifies a rebuild. 

 

Where I will agree is that no ownership group is going to okay the type of rebuild where you have the "however long it takes" attitude and while I have criticism of the Flames owners and do believe they should be more patient, i don't believe that has anything to do with what has led to today. The Flames not finding a number one center during their rebuild has more to do with bad luck and foreseen circumstances than it does anything else. 

[cross16]

20 hours ago, ABC923 said:

So Dallas has the Avs on the ropes. Just curious, if Dallas wins in 5, or makes it to the finals this year, does that change anyone’s opinion on whether our team needs major changes?

 

Goaltending is a major story there. Injuries mean the Avs are down to the 3rd stringer and have not been getting saves. Be a different story if they were.

 

Shouldn't change the narrative at all IMO. 

[The_People1]

4 hours ago, cross16 said:

 

Good points. Chicago is another club i would add to the list that were patient in accumulating assets. 

 

I guess to add context to my original point and my criticism of the Flames ownership group. From everything i've seen/read/heard the Flames owners will tolerate 1 bad season but the mandate is to get back into the playoffs the next year. They are not okay with multiple losing seasons in order to accumulate the assets or being patient with it taking upwards of 3 seasons to get back into contention. That, IMO, is on the impatient side of things and can be detrimental to a franchise long term if your goal is to win and win on a consistent basis. I don't think the Flames owner are content to to slow play a rebuild like some of those other clubs i listed did. So this is where you get into a bit of debate of want quantifies a rebuild. 

 

Where I will agree is that no ownership group is going to okay the type of rebuild where you have the "however long it takes" attitude and while I have criticism of the Flames owners and do believe they should be more patient, i don't believe that has anything to do with what has led to today. The Flames not finding a number one center during their rebuild has more to do with bad luck and foreseen circumstances than it does anything else. 

 

We could also add the Senators to the list of owners who will tolerate an extended rebuild...  Melnyk triggers his own rebuilds.

 

It's not to say rebuilds and patience are a guarantee of success but it's to say it's one of many typical requirements.

[The_People1]

This is my "blow it up" roster,

 

Lucic - Bennett - Dube

Mangiapane - Cozens - Lindholm

Jankowski - Ryan - Reider

Rinaldo - Ruzicka - Gawdin

X: UFA

 

Hanifin - Andersson

Valimaki - Gustafson

Mackey - Yelesin

X: Kylington

 

Rittich

X: Zagidulin

 

 

2023 roster,

 

Pelletier - Shane Wright - Lindholm

Mangiapane - Cozens - Mercer/Gunler/Jarvis

LW - Bennett - Dube

LW - Ruzicka - Gawdin

X: 

 

Valimaki - 2021 1st rnd pick

Hanifin - Anderson

Mackey - RD

X: 

 

Askarov

X: Rittich

[sak22]

8 hours ago, The_People1 said:

This is my "blow it up" roster,

 

Lucic - Bennett - Dube

Mangiapane - Cozens - Lindholm

Jankowski - Ryan - Reider

Rinaldo - Ruzicka - Gawdin

X: UFA

 

Hanifin - Andersson

Valimaki - Gustafson

Mackey - Yelesin

X: Kylington

 

Rittich

X: Zagidulin

 

 

2023 roster,

 

Pelletier - Shane Wright - Lindholm

Mangiapane - Cozens - Mercer/Gunler/Jarvis

LW - Bennett - Dube

LW - Ruzicka - Gawdin

X: 

 

Valimaki - 2021 1st rnd pick

Hanifin - Anderson

Mackey - RD

X: 

 

Askarov

X: Rittich

So how does this work, we trade Gio, Monahan, Gaudreau, Backlund and Tkachuk this year and in 3 years all we have to show is Cozens and another 1st from 2020.  Gio I've been saying for a while won't bring much, Backlund probably isn't a great piece either, but if you trade the other 3,  3 proven 30 goal scorers and have one unproven player (Cozens) and one other 2020 first, and nothing else that can make an impact in 2023 that is horrendous management.  If your going to run a hockey team on the basis of winning a future lottery why not throw your life savings towards Lotto Max, 60 million tonight.

 

[The_People1]

5 hours ago, sak22 said:

So how does this work, we trade Gio, Monahan, Gaudreau, Backlund and Tkachuk this year and in 3 years all we have to show is Cozens and another 1st from 2020. 

 

It's only showing the framework and foundation, don't worry.  Feel free to add the assets from Gaudreau, Tkachuk, or Monahan in there.  

[DirtyDeeds]

On 8/24/2020 at 9:46 PM, The_People1 said:

 

So basically keep the same team just pass the torch to the younger kids?  

Not quite. I think we stopped short of a great rebuild. The early success of johnny and mony gave management hope that that would be enough.

They aren't, we need a couple more key pieces (or upgrades)and top tier goaltending.

[The_People1]

3 hours ago, DirtyDeeds said:

Not quite. I think we stopped short of a great rebuild. The early success of johnny and mony gave management hope that that would be enough.

They aren't, we need a couple more key pieces (or upgrades)and top tier goaltending.

 

Well therein lies the problem.  These key pieces can only be attained with a top 10 pick.  Only can get there by trading a key peice away or by tanking.  We fluked with Gaudreau in the 3rd round.  So hard to rely on lightning striking twice.  

[robrob74]

4 minutes ago, The_People1 said:

 

Well therein lies the problem.  These key pieces can only be attained with a top 10 pick.  Only can get there by trading a key peice away or by tanking.  We fluked with Gaudreau in the 3rd round.  So hard to rely on lightning striking twice.  

 

or by a player falling (Barzal) to where you pick. But that’s so rare. Not often do you get a Gaudreau in the 4th round, and guys like Point or Pastranak are rare late as well. 
 

Mangiapane, Andersson and Dube are good finds In their positions and needed for team depth, but we can’t expect them to be Top6 saviours and if we are, we are not deep enough for a Cup. I think they’re great 3rd liners that can jump up in a pinch. They have heart, but I still think size that uses their kind of heart is important to winning Cups. 

[The_People1]

36 minutes ago, robrob74 said:

 

or by a player falling (Barzal) to where you pick. But that’s so rare. Not often do you get a Gaudreau in the 4th round, and guys like Point or Pastranak are rare late as well. 
 

Mangiapane, Andersson and Dube are good finds In their positions and needed for team depth, but we can’t expect them to be Top6 saviours and if we are, we are not deep enough for a Cup. I think they’re great 3rd liners that can jump up in a pinch. They have heart, but I still think size that uses their kind of heart is important to winning Cups. 

 

If I remember correctly, Barzal came into the draft with a season ending knee injury/surgery... Or something like that.  So there was reason for his drop in the draft. 

 

I remember a similar thing happened to Dube and he fell to us in the second round.

 

Yes players do fall but usually because of a good reason.  Relying on that to find the next key piece is not the best course of action.  We should properly rebuild.  Do it right this time and don't rush it.

[cross16]

Barzal cracked his kneecap in his draft year and missed a few months. He was healthy at the draft but because he missed time he wasn’t able to answer some questions around his game/growth. 
 

At the same time he was so dominant at the under 18s that year his slide was still a surprise, but I agree it’s really tough to predict when players will slide. 

[Thebrewcrew]

10 hours ago, The_People1 said:

 

If I remember correctly, Barzal came into the draft with a season ending knee injury/surgery... Or something like that.  So there was reason for his drop in the draft. 

 

I remember a similar thing happened to Dube and he fell to us in the second round.

 

Yes players do fall but usually because of a good reason.  Relying on that to find the next key piece is not the best course of action.  We should properly rebuild.  Do it right this time and don't rush it.

Barzal also reportedly, rubbed some teams the wrong way in interviews. He's an extremely confident kid and that was mistaken for arrogance. He said something to the effect of "you'll regret not picking me". Give him credit, he's delivered on that. 

[Thebrewcrew]

I would just really caution going into another rebuild.

 

It's very difficult to win the lotto under this format, the last few years lotto winners have been;

2020

1. NYR- jumped from 11th to 1st

2. LA- jumped from 4th to 2nd

3. OTT via SJ, a rare occurrence of staying put.

2019

1. NJ- jumped from 3rd to 1st

2. NYR- jumped from 6th to 2nd

3. CHI- jumped from 12th to 3rd

2018

1. BUF- worst team in the league and stayed at pick #1.

2. CAR- jumped from 11th to 2nd

3. MTL- jumped from 4th to 3rd

 

 

 

Let's look back at the Flames last rebuild.

 

We'll say it started in 2013. 

 

2013 draft- No lotto luck

6th- Monahan. Absolutely the correct pick at the time and still is. Can't fault the team for this pick, no lotto luck, but to their credit they tried to trade up to #1. 

22nd- Poirier. This felt like a reach at the time and unfortunately it didn't pan out. 

28th- Klimchuk. They took Klimchuk right where he was slotted to go, I have a hard time being too critical of this one. I am a little surprised though that they went with 3 forwards in the 1st, especially in what was the 1st draft of the rebuild.

Unfortunately, the Flames whiffed on 7/8 picks. Hindsight, tells you though it wasn't a fantastic 1st round, the Flames have had 7 2013 1st rounders in their organization at one point or another and only 2 of them are legitimate NHLers. 

 

2014 draft- No lotto luck

4th overall- Bennett. This was the right pick at the time and to be honest, if the Flames picked 1st overall, he might have been the pick. Is he still the right pick? Probably not. There's blame to around between the team and player. 

The rest of this draft was ugly. The Flames went 1/6.

 

At this point, the Flames are 2 seasons into the rebuild and have went 2/14 in terms of drafting NHLers, both were their top picks. These drafts coincided with the end of Feaster and the start of Burke/Treliving. 

 

2015 draft- this is where things become very interesting IMO. The Flames were projected to be a bottom feeder, yet again and be in the McDavid/Eichel derby. Of course, they overachieved and made the playoffs. Anyways, the Flames acquired Noah Hanifin, it's not hard to see him being the pick if the Flames had struggled as everyone expected. 

For sake of the argument we will say they drafted Hanfin. This was a very good draft for the Flames, they draft Andersson, Kylington and Mangiapane. 

 

2016- no lotto luck, Flames regress as everyone expected and select 6th overall.

6th- Tkachuk. Steal of a pick, you got the face of the franchise and two rivals passed on him. 

This looks to have been a very good draft, the Flames were able to draft Dube and Fox(let's not discuss this) and Phillips. 

 

So for those wanting another rebuild, just take a look back at the 4 drafts from 2013-2016. High draft picks are fun and exciting, but far from a guarantee. The Flames have 5 players selected in the top 6 from 2013-2016 and as constructed, are probably a slightly above average team. The Flames could very well burn it down and end up in this very same spot in 6 or 7 seasons, just because you select high doesn't guarantee Cups.  

 

[robrob74]

2 hours ago, Thebrewcrew said:

I would just really caution going into another rebuild.

 

It's very difficult to win the lotto under this format, the last few years lotto winners have been;

2020

1. NYR- jumped from 11th to 1st

2. LA- jumped from 4th to 2nd

3. OTT via SJ, a rare occurrence of staying put.

2019

1. NJ- jumped from 3rd to 1st

2. NYR- jumped from 6th to 2nd

3. CHI- jumped from 12th to 3rd

2018

1. BUF- worst team in the league and stayed at pick #1.

2. CAR- jumped from 11th to 2nd

3. MTL- jumped from 4th to 3rd

 

 

 

Let's look back at the Flames last rebuild.

 

We'll say it started in 2013. 

 

2013 draft- No lotto luck

6th- Monahan. Absolutely the correct pick at the time and still is. Can't fault the team for this pick, no lotto luck, but to their credit they tried to trade up to #1. 

22nd- Poirier. This felt like a reach at the time and unfortunately it didn't pan out. 

28th- Klimchuk. They took Klimchuk right where he was slotted to go, I have a hard time being too critical of this one. I am a little surprised though that they went with 3 forwards in the 1st, especially in what was the 1st draft of the rebuild.

Unfortunately, the Flames whiffed on 7/8 picks. Hindsight, tells you though it wasn't a fantastic 1st round, the Flames have had 7 2013 1st rounders in their organization at one point or another and only 2 of them are legitimate NHLers. 

 

2014 draft- No lotto luck

4th overall- Bennett. This was the right pick at the time and to be honest, if the Flames picked 1st overall, he might have been the pick. Is he still the right pick? Probably not. There's blame to around between the team and player. 

The rest of this draft was ugly. The Flames went 1/6.

 

At this point, the Flames are 2 seasons into the rebuild and have went 2/14 in terms of drafting NHLers, both were their top picks. These drafts coincided with the end of Feaster and the start of Burke/Treliving. 

 

2015 draft- this is where things become very interesting IMO. The Flames were projected to be a bottom feeder, yet again and be in the McDavid/Eichel derby. Of course, they overachieved and made the playoffs. Anyways, the Flames acquired Noah Hanifin, it's not hard to see him being the pick if the Flames had struggled as everyone expected. 

For sake of the argument we will say they drafted Hanfin. This was a very good draft for the Flames, they draft Andersson, Kylington and Mangiapane. 

 

2016- no lotto luck, Flames regress as everyone expected and select 6th overall.

6th- Tkachuk. Steal of a pick, you got the face of the franchise and two rivals passed on him. 

This looks to have been a very good draft, the Flames were able to draft Dube and Fox(let's not discuss this) and Phillips. 

 

So for those wanting another rebuild, just take a look back at the 4 drafts from 2013-2016. High draft picks are fun and exciting, but far from a guarantee. The Flames have 5 players selected in the top 6 from 2013-2016 and as constructed, are probably a slightly above average team. The Flames could very well burn it down and end up in this very same spot in 6 or 7 seasons, just because you select high doesn't guarantee Cups.  

 

 

I think the one thing that needs to be considered is knowing the strength of upcoming drafts. The ability to project a draft to choose when to rebuild so its incumbent on your scouts to know how that looks. 
 

I think the Flames chose to wait too long on the Iginla rebuild, by about 1-3 seasons.

[Thebrewcrew]

27 minutes ago, robrob74 said:

 

I think the one thing that needs to be considered is knowing the strength of upcoming drafts. The ability to project a draft to choose when to rebuild so its incumbent on your scouts to know how that looks. 
 

I think the Flames chose to wait too long on the Iginla rebuild, by about 1-3 seasons.

There’s no guarantee though, a draft might look strong on paper, but we have to remember these are still kids that teams are drafting.

 

The 2013 draft was hyped up and many thought it was as deep as the 2003 class. Unfortunately, it wasn’t as deep as everyone thought 

[The_People1]

8 hours ago, Thebrewcrew said:

I would just really caution going into another rebuild.

 

The support for NOT going into a rebuild has to revolve around the idea that we will be able to find a #1 Center, a good enough Goalie, and upgrading RHS RD in the next two years.    Two years because Tkachuk, Gaudreau, and Giordano's contracts end in two years.  Tkachuk is RFA and I think will cost around $8.5-mil to retain long term.  Gaudreau will likely leave to the East coast and we lose a key asset.  Giordano... well, we will cheer for his retirement in two years but anyways...

 

Point is, too many missing pieces and too little time left before we are forced to make major roster moves anyways.  Either we start now or we start in two years.  I would caution not starting the rebuild right now.

 

8 hours ago, Thebrewcrew said:

The Flames could very well burn it down and end up in this very same spot in 6 or 7 seasons, just because you select high doesn't guarantee Cups.

 

Another thing i want to stress is, "rebuild" is really just trading Gaudreau and Monahan for futures rather than immediate help.  It doesn't necessarily mean a 90% turnover of the roster or anything that drastic.  I propose we also trade Tkachuk, Lindholm, Backlund, and Giordano but I would stop there.  We should hang onto Dube, Bennett, Mangiapane, Hanifin, Andersson, and Valimaki for sures.  They are still young.

 

And Tkachuk, i would only trade him to Ottawa for the 3rd overall pick because of the Tkachuk connection and because i think Byfield and Stutzle are two blue chip prospects that can play Center at the NHL level eventually... and play it as a #1 Center.  I believe Stutzle has Pettersson/Marner-level talent and can be a very elite play making Center.  A #1 Center is something we will struggle to find under any other method.  No one is giving us a #1 Center for Gaudreau or Monahan.  Tkachuk is our best asset to acquire one.  

 

Moreover, i think Byfield is emerging as a clear #2 overall pick meaning Ottawa chooses between Stutzle and Tkachuk... Stutzle plays more LW right now so maybe Ottawa doesn't see Stutzle as a Center.  If Stutzle goes #2 then i think OTT drafts Byfield and declines our Tkachuk offer.

 

Yes, the Flames could burn it down and end up in a similar spot in 6 or 7 years... so that statement by default concedes we suck right now, right?  We are not winning a Cup with this group, right?  This isn't any spot worth staying in because we are between a rock and a hard place.  We drafted Monahan and Bennett thinking we've got this.  We had the right idea but the targets didn't pan out as we would've liked.  It's too bad really.

[JTech780]

Absolutely agree that there is no guarantee that a rebuild will work. I just don't see this team competing till we get a number 1 center, a number 1 defenseman and a number 1 goalie. 

 

The only way I see us getting those pieces is through high draft picks, so if we can keep Gaudreau and Monahan and still draft in the top 10, preferably in the top 5, I am all for that plan.

[jjgallow]

16 hours ago, Thebrewcrew said:

I would just really caution going into another rebuild.

 

The reality is that BT made the decision for us to go into a rebuild when he traded away Hamilton, Fox, and our first round pick.

 

Really this thread is just about whether we embrace it, or let it happen to us (and it Will happen to us).

 

You don't need a first overall to have a successful rebuild.  Although if you have 3-4 rebuild seasons you could get one, and it helps.

 

If we "fight" the rebuild....we'll have 7-8 years of middling picks, missing the playoffs for most, and have Zero chance of a first overall.

[zima]

I am in for some kind of movement which allows to move from a first round and out but where do you start GH withers as soon \as the playoffs start and to big boys start to push him around and the whining starts. Now saying that in his defense the teams last few yrs did get away with breaking bones in his hands with no protection from refs or team mates but now he is scared to play his game for fear of being pasted by the big boys he just doesn't seem to have the same ability to skate circles around them like he use to. So again where do we start which will makes us better trade Gio GH mony and what would we get for players that play a soft game?