2024 NHL draft - A New Hope

[jjgallow]

9 hours ago, The_People1 said:

 

ya.  I wish we can get another pick in the 12-15 range.  That's a good time to pick him.  

 

I am extremely torn on this.   I agree with you.  However,

 

I think Tij will get picked higher than than this, for all the wrong reasons as @conundrumed suggested.

 

Think of how much money Iginla made the Flames, and how early he did it.   GMs will for sure take into account:

-ticket draw

-the likelihood that Tij, as a relatively mature forward, will likely contribute before they get fired.  lol

 

 

Why I'm torn, is because I genuinely believe that's some very legit DNA and also that these kids were raised right.

Potent combo.

 

I see no reason why Tij can't do what his Dad did.   They have identical trajectories.    His younger brother is even better.

 

I think if we want him we will have to pay a premium.   But I also suspect we may not regret it.

 

 

Of course the biggest problem with all of this is that we Really, really, really, really, really need a defenceman lol.   It wouldn't be as dire if we'd made better choices in the last two drafts.  But now it's on.

[travel_dude]

7 hours ago, 420since1974 said:

Calgary is currently in 24th place after 49 games played.

I think that Chicago, San Jose, Anaheim, Ottawa, and Columbus probably have the bottom 5 spots locked up.

The Flames might be able to drop below Minnesota, Montreal, and Buffalo and end up with the #6 OA draft pick, which would give them the following lotto odds:

#1 = 7.5%

#2 + 7.7%

#3 = 0.2%

#4 = 0

#5 = 0

#6 = 34.1%

#7 = 41.4%

#8 = 9.1%

 

Bear in mind that even a top 10 spot has the chance of being bumped down one.

When the NHL doesn't like a result, they change the system.

 

 

[travel_dude]

2 hours ago, jjgallow said:

 

I am extremely torn on this.   I agree with you.  However,

 

I think Tij will get picked higher than than this, for all the wrong reasons as @conundrumed suggested.

 

Think of how much money Iginla made the Flames, and how early he did it.   GMs will for sure take into account:

-ticket draw

-the likelihood that Tij, as a relatively mature forward, will likely contribute before they get fired.  lol

 

 

Why I'm torn, is because I genuinely believe that's some very legit DNA and also that these kids were raised right.

Potent combo.

 

I see no reason why Tij can't do what his Dad did.   They have identical trajectories.    His younger brother is even better.

 

I think if we want him we will have to pay a premium.   But I also suspect we may not regret it.

 

 

Of course the biggest problem with all of this is that we Really, really, really, really, really need a defenceman lol.   It wouldn't be as dire if we'd made better choices in the last two drafts.  But now it's on.

 

How often is the son better than the father or even as good?

[jjgallow]

1 hour ago, travel_dude said:

 

How often is the son better than the father or even as good?

 

Basically 99.9% of the time in the NHL.

 

 

But, getting to the point you're trying to make, a lot of which are close to home:

 

William Nylander

Brett Hull

Elias Lindhom

The Tkachuks  (although I hate all 3, and for all the reasons that I like all the Iginlas)

Sam Reinhart

Jakob Chychrun

Sean Couturier

Jake Debrusk

Max Domi (this one is debatable but I'm going to give it to him)

Zach Paris

Paul Stastny's another one that's debatable but mentionable

 

 

There's more.   I don't have time.    I know there's also a long list that don't do it.

 

One of the reasons I think the Iginla situation is special:  

He made the NHL on almost pure genetics.    I mean, don't get me wrong, he was brought up well.   Really well.   but in terms of hockey, it was mostly his grandfather.   He didn't have that father-level support most NHLers had.

 

Jarome's kids, on the other hand, do have that father-level support, along with an ample supply of the genetics.

 

It's showing.

 

[Thebrewcrew]

Sam Dickinson is high on my wish list. He's smooth. The London Knights are an NHL factory.

 

Really like Carter Yakemchuk as well. Calgary kid. 20 goals already for a big RHD.

 

If/when the Flames acquire a late first, I'd like Tanner Howe.  No Bedard, no problem. The captain of the Pats is still well over a pt/g.

[MP5029]

On 1/28/2024 at 9:41 AM, jjgallow said:

 

I am extremely torn on this.   I agree with you.  However,

 

I think Tij will get picked higher than than this, for all the wrong reasons as @conundrumed suggested.

 

Think of how much money Iginla made the Flames, and how early he did it.   GMs will for sure take into account:

-ticket draw

-the likelihood that Tij, as a relatively mature forward, will likely contribute before they get fired.  lol

 

 

Why I'm torn, is because I genuinely believe that's some very legit DNA and also that these kids were raised right.

Potent combo.

 

I see no reason why Tij can't do what his Dad did.   They have identical trajectories.    His younger brother is even better.

 

I think if we want him we will have to pay a premium.   But I also suspect we may not regret it.

 

 

Of course the biggest problem with all of this is that we Really, really, really, really, really need a defenceman lol.   It wouldn't be as dire if we'd made better choices in the last two drafts.  But now it's on.

So your forgetting that if Tij gets drafted higher then the higher Rand D slip down 1 and into that 15-12 range…

 

I agree we do need D…and this is deep D draft…I’m of the mind set we should go all in for Tij and also the younger brother when he’s eligible heck if we had a woman’s team the sister is a fantastic player too from what I hear…

 

can’t go wrong with an Iginla on your hockey team!

 

while I agree any team that drafts Tij will see solid ticket sales…in Cgy it would be that much higher…

 

if I’m Conroy, given the mess Tre left to clean up, the smart move is to draft Tij and the brother…buys you time as the GM with the fan base and I’m sure he’s an easy sell to the owners 

[MP5029]

20 hours ago, jjgallow said:

 

Basically 99.9% of the time in the NHL.

 

 

But, getting to the point you're trying to make, a lot of which are close to home:

 

William Nylander

Brett Hull

Elias Lindhom

The Tkachuks  (although I hate all 3, and for all the reasons that I like all the Iginlas)

Sam Reinhart

Jakob Chychrun

Sean Couturier

Jake Debrusk

Max Domi (this one is debatable but I'm going to give it to him)

Zach Paris

Paul Stastny's another one that's debatable but mentionable

 

 

There's more.   I don't have time.    I know there's also a long list that don't do it.

 

One of the reasons I think the Iginla situation is special:  

He made the NHL on almost pure genetics.    I mean, don't get me wrong, he was brought up well.   Really well.   but in terms of hockey, it was mostly his grandfather.   He didn't have that father-level support most NHLers had.

 

Jarome's kids, on the other hand, do have that father-level support, along with an ample supply of the genetics.

 

It's showing.

 

Exactly and this is why Cgy needs to go all in for Tij now and his brother a little later…with Jarome in Mgt it almost seems like it, he’s part time this year…full time next year? He didn’t take an NHL job earlier because he wanted to coach his kids….mmmm Conroy, are you playing an angle here? I sure hope so! 

[The_People1]

Seems like Tij started the season ranked 30-40th overall but is moving up the charts weekly.  Some of the most popular mock draft sites have him in the 12-20 spot now.  Always like to see risers going into the draft as opposed to players dropping.  Shows promising trajectory.

 

By season's end, I'm guessing he's ranked 8-15 and the Flames pick him 6th overall.

[Thebrewcrew]

https://www.sportsnet.ca/nhl/article/scouts-analysis-ranking-the-top-32-prospects-for-the-2024-nhl-draft/
 

 

Interesting list from Bukala. 
 

Eiserman at 9 is interesting.

 

He’s got Iginla at 10. I actually don’t believe the Flames will take Iginla. With Jarome likely moving into a front office role, it’s probably something he doesn’t want. It would be very cool though.

 

I think if the Flames can get a top ten pick, they’ll get a player they’ll be very happy with.

[The_People1]

11 hours ago, Thebrewcrew said:

https://www.sportsnet.ca/nhl/article/scouts-analysis-ranking-the-top-32-prospects-for-the-2024-nhl-draft/
 

 

Interesting list from Bukala. 
 

Eiserman at 9 is interesting.

 

He’s got Iginla at 10. I actually don’t believe the Flames will take Iginla. With Jarome likely moving into a front office role, it’s probably something he doesn’t want. It would be very cool though.

 

I think if the Flames can get a top ten pick, they’ll get a player they’ll be very happy with.

 

Depends because Jarome insisted on coaching his son all this time.  He may want to continue to be there to guide his son's development.  

[sak22]

4 minutes ago, The_People1 said:

 

Depends because Jarome insisted on coaching his son all this time.  He may want to continue to be there to guide his son's development.  

He also knows the market and knows the expectations that will come with the name will be greater in this market than most others, maybe he wants him to carve his own path.  I don't draw a link on youth coaching to their adult lives, think Jarome just wanted to stay in hockey after retirement and do it without sacrificing the family time by taking a professional or tv job. 

[Thebrewcrew]

Justin Poirier - Stats, Contract, Salary & More (eliteprospects.com)

 

Jeremie Poirier's brother. 35 goals in 48 games.

 

He is small. Probably goes in the 2nd or 3rd range.

[The_People1]

8 hours ago, sak22 said:

He also knows the market and knows the expectations that will come with the name will be greater in this market than most others, maybe he wants him to carve his own path.  I don't draw a link on youth coaching to their adult lives, think Jarome just wanted to stay in hockey after retirement and do it without sacrificing the family time by taking a professional or tv job. 

 

Ya I guess it's a conversation Jarome has to have with Tij.  Sometimes it's better to not have dad there because of all the politics around it.  But from a business stand point, fans would love it.

[robrob74]

2 hours ago, The_People1 said:

 

Ya I guess it's a conversation Jarome has to have with Tij.  Sometimes it's better to not have dad there because of all the politics around it.  But from a business stand point, fans would love it.

depends too, all the kids (the team) played hard on the dad's trip. 
 

it's only beer league but I played harder when family and friends watched. Fans are one thing, but when it's someone I know well, there's something to prove. Well, there's always something to prove, but I was born super competitive, like the worst kind. 
 

my aunt would say that if my cousins and I were running in a circle, I'd stop and tell everyone I was in front. Some are just born that way. Some are Ruzicka.

 

what kind of kid is Tij? 

[Thebrewcrew]

I can’t argue that drafting Tij would be exciting. It’s probably something the owner would love.

 

If Jarome wasn’t in the organization, I think it would be more likely. I think Jarome is smart enough to realize that it’s in the best interest of his son to play elsewhere. The expectations would be through the roof in Calgary. Given that his dad is the best player in franchise history, he will likely never meet the impossibly high standard, that the fan base will set.

 

Fortunately, I believe there will be better players available when the Flames pick. Most likely on D. Levshunov/Dickinson/Buium/Parekh/Silayev/ Yakemchuk. 

 

If the Flames want the son of a former Flame, Byron Ritchie’s son is a pretty good player for PA. Late first, early 2nd type player.

[jjgallow]

8 hours ago, Thebrewcrew said:

I can’t argue that drafting Tij would be exciting. It’s probably something the owner would love.

 

If Jarome wasn’t in the organization, I think it would be more likely. I think Jarome is smart enough to realize that it’s in the best interest of his son to play elsewhere. The expectations would be through the roof in Calgary. Given that his dad is the best player in franchise history, he will likely never meet the impossibly high standard, that the fan base will set.

 

Fortunately, I believe there will be better players available when the Flames pick. Most likely on D. Levshunov/Dickinson/Buium/Parekh/Silayev/ Yakemchuk. 

 

If the Flames want the son of a former Flame, Byron Ritchie’s son is a pretty good player for PA. Late first, early 2nd type player.

 

Everything you are saying here makes complete sense.

 

This is why we know it won't happen

[travel_dude]

9 hours ago, Thebrewcrew said:

I can’t argue that drafting Tij would be exciting. It’s probably something the owner would love.

 

If Jarome wasn’t in the organization, I think it would be more likely. I think Jarome is smart enough to realize that it’s in the best interest of his son to play elsewhere. The expectations would be through the roof in Calgary. Given that his dad is the best player in franchise history, he will likely never meet the impossibly high standard, that the fan base will set.

 

Fortunately, I believe there will be better players available when the Flames pick. Most likely on D. Levshunov/Dickinson/Buium/Parekh/Silayev/ Yakemchuk. 

 

If the Flames want the son of a former Flame, Byron Ritchie’s son is a pretty good player for PA. Late first, early 2nd type player.

 

Let'd face it, 32 goal in 44 games is a good start.  Teams will look at his year and his play and evaluate.  No different than what we should be doing.  He is also a C, as opposed to a winger.  I don't care about the name at all, I want the best pick available at the time we use it.  I would prefer to have 3 picks in the top 32, so one of the later might be a good use for that guy.

 

Where we struggle to make the best choice is anywhere between 12 and 32 besides the use of the 2nd rounder in most cases.  There is nothing wrong with Honzek or Pelletier or Zary or Coronato.  Were the best choice at the time is the question that needs to be asked.  Wyatt Johnston seems like a miss now, but it was difficult to scout him given his missed time.  Too early to tell anyway.

[Thebrewcrew]

 

Catton is someone to keep an eye on. 

 

Plays centre. 75pts in 46 games. Also worth mentioning that Spokane isn't all that talented. They have one NHL drafted player, that didn't get signed.

 

Pretty dynamic player in junior.

[KenHouston]

On 11/2/2023 at 1:40 PM, The_People1 said:

Hard to get excited about the draft right now.  Too early.

 

Also, Montreal might take our 1st round pick if it's 10-20.  So we might not even be picking very high in the first round, if at all.

That's actually wrong. Pick is for 2025. If Calgary picks 20-32 in 2024 then Habs can with 48hrs notice pre draft, can take it. Cant take a pick if its below 20 in 2024.

 

 

 

 

 

[The_People1]

On 2/5/2024 at 12:43 AM, KenHouston said:

That's actually wrong. Pick is for 2025. If Calgary picks 20-32 in 2024 then Habs can with 48hrs notice pre draft, can take it. Cant take a pick if its below 20 in 2024.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Thanks yes.  Flames project to be pretty bad again in 2025.  This could be a total disaster.

[cross16]

26 minutes ago, The_People1 said:

 

Thanks yes.  Flames project to be pretty bad again in 2025.  This could be a total disaster.

 

Only if Florida is also bad. As long as Florida isn't a bottom 10 team next year Flames would not lose their pick. 

[travel_dude]

57 minutes ago, The_People1 said:

 

Thanks yes.  Flames project to be pretty bad again in 2025.  This could be a total disaster.

 

40 minutes ago, cross16 said:

 

Only if Florida is also bad. As long as Florida isn't a bottom 10 team next year Flames would not lose their pick. 

 

The sub-scenarios get to me.

 

If FLA's 2025 pick is a lotto pick we get the 2026 pick from them.

If that's the case, and we got 1st overall in 2025, MTL gets the 2026 pick, whichever is better.

Only then is it possible for MTL to get a 1st overall from us.

 

Most likely outcome this year is MTL doesn't get CGY's pick.

We would have two 1st rounders this year.

Most likely outcome next year is that MTL takes FLA's pick.

Or the better of non-top 10 picks from FLA or us.

 

Really the big risk is that two teams are both historically bad for the next couple of years.

 

[cross16]

1 hour ago, travel_dude said:

 

 

The sub-scenarios get to me.

 

If FLA's 2025 pick is a lotto pick we get the 2026 pick from them.

If that's the case, and we got 1st overall in 2025, MTL gets the 2026 pick, whichever is better.

Only then is it possible for MTL to get a 1st overall from us.

 

Most likely outcome this year is MTL doesn't get CGY's pick.

We would have two 1st rounders this year.

Most likely outcome next year is that MTL takes FLA's pick.

Or the better of non-top 10 picks from FLA or us.

 

Really the big risk is that two teams are both historically bad for the next couple of years.

 

 

Small clarification. The decision point on the Florida pick is this year. If Florida is in the top 10 this year then they cannot complete the trade for Giroux, would keep their pick and send Philly their 2025 first. Be default that would give the Flames Florida 2026 first rounder. At that point, it no longer matters where Florida finishes. 

 

If, and this is looking to be the most likely scenario given Florida is already 13 points clear of the bottom 10 and playing well, Florida finishes outside the top 10 their 2024 first rounder goes to Philly and then the 2025 rounder goes to Calgary. 

 

Then the next decision point is next year's standings. If both CGY/Florida finish outside the top 10 Montreal gets the better of the 2. If CGY is top 10 and Florida isn't, Panthers pick goes to Montreal and it's done. 

 

so in order for the Flames to give up a top 10 pick, Florida essentially has to have a pretty epic collapse for the rest of the season. 

[zima]

So we don't have top 6 protection ? So if we picked between 1 and 6 they can take the pick ? As usual I'm confussed.

[Sarasti]

I hope I speak for everyone when I say conditional first rounders Blockchaining suck