Oilers

[jjgallow]

the Oilers are that kind of team where some games, they will look like they do not belong in the playoffs.

Both of their game ones, for instance.

 

then other games, they will look like world beaters.  like last game.

 

We we'll get commentary after bad games that they don't belong there, and commentary after good games that they are cup favorites.

 

I'm gonna keep it consistent and say that they are still aweful even after their good games.  

     Goaltending not there.

      Defence rented and questionable

      no depth.

 

They will get themselves knocked out and the team that beats them will be the Oilers.

[cross16]

It's really hard to pick a favorite right now because i'm not sure i'm seeing one team stand out. Everyone has their ups and downs so far in the playoffs and no one has been consistent. NHL wanted parity and they sure have it. 

 

For me I can't call Edmonton a favorite because of their goaltending. Skinner has been downright bad in these playoffs and I don't think you can win a cup with bad goaltending. Doesn't help that i don't think McDavid is 100% either. 

 

I think Vegas takes them out. 

[jjgallow]

1 hour ago, cross16 said:

It's really hard to pick a favorite right now because i'm not sure i'm seeing one team stand out. Everyone has their ups and downs so far in the playoffs and no one has been consistent. NHL wanted parity and they sure have it. 

 

For me I can't call Edmonton a favorite because of their goaltending. Skinner has been downright bad in these playoffs and I don't think you can win a cup with bad goaltending. Doesn't help that i don't think McDavid is 100% either. 

 

I think Vegas takes them out. 

 

It was a really weird first round, I usually look to the teams with the hot goalies and all the hot goalies got taken out in round 1.

 

Zero chance of that happening for another 3 rounds though.  

 

With this much parity I do think hot goalies will take next round or two.

[jjgallow]

[jjgallow]

 

Oilers doing their thing.... 

[jjgallow]

 

The golf course beckons.  

 

Oilers defeated by Oilers.

[medatswhoP]

I've said it all year, you cant win a cup with one line, to add mediocre defence and goaltending not much else Mclotto or Drai could do, can only carry a team so far.

Did someone say Golf!

[rocketdoctor]

[cross16]

Fascinating next 2 seasons for the Oilers here. 

 

I just don't see them as close to winning it all. The goaltending isn't there, they can't defend at a high enough level, and their 5 on 5 game is average at best. I just wonder how they go about improving

 

- They have 5.9 mill in cap space for 17 players signed but they have Evan Bouchard as an RFA and he isn't going to come cheap. Was arguably their best dman in the playoffs. The Bouchard-Ekholm pairing got the key mins/situations for the Oilers and rightfully so. Bouchard is a really good player. 

- Campbell has 4 more years a 5 mill per. who the heck is touching that? I think Skinner is a solid B but the Oilers don't have anything close to a number 1 goalie. Not sure how they find one. 

- They are too thin down the middle. I think they are going to bank on Holloway here but IMO he isn't a center, he's a winger (and he's bottom 6 at that). 

- They lack wingers who can forecheck effectively outside Hyman. They need a winger or two who are hounds on pucks, speed to get in behind D, and turn bad pucks into good ones. They have some ok puck possession wingers, but in the playoffs you've got to play north - south. Oilers forwards get exposed in that format. 

- That Nurse contract..... man. I don't see how you can ever get to a winning formula playing that guy 23-25 mins a night. Such a sub par defender. 

 

And on top of that, you've got Draisaitl a UFA in 2 and McDavid in 3. Clock is ticking and options seem limited. 

 

I can buy the argument the Leafs can just run it back but I don't se that argument for Edm. Every year it's the same formula as to why they lose. Feels like they need a big move to take the next step but what is that? I think the if the Oilers were smart they would be shopping Nurse but at the same time what's his value?

 

Can they keep Draisaitl?

 

Fascinating to me. 

 

[jjgallow]

1 hour ago, cross16 said:

Fascinating next 2 seasons for the Oilers here. 

 

I just don't see them as close to winning it all. The goaltending isn't there, they can't defend at a high enough level, and their 5 on 5 game is average at best. I just wonder how they go about improving

 

- They have 5.9 mill in cap space for 17 players signed but they have Evan Bouchard as an RFA and he isn't going to come cheap. Was arguably their best dman in the playoffs. The Bouchard-Ekholm pairing got the key mins/situations for the Oilers and rightfully so. Bouchard is a really good player. 

- Campbell has 4 more years a 5 mill per. who the heck is touching that? I think Skinner is a solid B but the Oilers don't have anything close to a number 1 goalie. Not sure how they find one. 

- They are too thin down the middle. I think they are going to bank on Holloway here but IMO he isn't a center, he's a winger (and he's bottom 6 at that). 

- They lack wingers who can forecheck effectively outside Hyman. They need a winger or two who are hounds on pucks, speed to get in behind D, and turn bad pucks into good ones. They have some ok puck possession wingers, but in the playoffs you've got to play north - south. Oilers forwards get exposed in that format. 

- That Nurse contract..... man. I don't see how you can ever get to a winning formula playing that guy 23-25 mins a night. Such a sub par defender. 

 

And on top of that, you've got Draisaitl a UFA in 2 and McDavid in 3. Clock is ticking and options seem limited. 

 

I can buy the argument the Leafs can just run it back but I don't se that argument for Edm. Every year it's the same formula as to why they lose. Feels like they need a big move to take the next step but what is that? I think the if the Oilers were smart they would be shopping Nurse but at the same time what's his value?

 

Can they keep Draisaitl?

 

Fascinating to me. 

 

 

tick-tock indeed.

 

Rentals.  This is how it goes.

 

Long story short, they are toast.  I doubt McDavid re-signs.   His absolute peak playing years are limited.  His ability to control their destiny single-handedly is, not going to last forever.

 

Simply put, they would need to buck up and buy some players out.   They got bad contracts.  I don't see it happening.

 

Their forwards are likely over-valued due to their proximity to McDavid.

 

Yes.  This includes Draisaitl.     Only way out of it I can see is a combination of:

1.  Buying out contracts or financially contributing to it in trades

2. Shopping Nurse around

3.  Yup.  Shopping Draisaitl around.  Buy low sell high.  He's the only asset with enough value to change things.

 

Draisaitl's not a pylon but he's also not McDavid.

 

He admittedly impressed me in the playoffs.  His value, however, is correspondingly high.

 

 

None of #1-#3 are likely to happen.

[The_People1]

2 hours ago, cross16 said:

Fascinating next 2 seasons for the Oilers here. 

 

I just don't see them as close to winning it all. The goaltending isn't there, they can't defend at a high enough level, and their 5 on 5 game is average at best. I just wonder how they go about improving

 

- They have 5.9 mill in cap space for 17 players signed but they have Evan Bouchard as an RFA and he isn't going to come cheap. Was arguably their best dman in the playoffs. The Bouchard-Ekholm pairing got the key mins/situations for the Oilers and rightfully so. Bouchard is a really good player. 

- Campbell has 4 more years a 5 mill per. who the heck is touching that? I think Skinner is a solid B but the Oilers don't have anything close to a number 1 goalie. Not sure how they find one. 

- They are too thin down the middle. I think they are going to bank on Holloway here but IMO he isn't a center, he's a winger (and he's bottom 6 at that). 

- They lack wingers who can forecheck effectively outside Hyman. They need a winger or two who are hounds on pucks, speed to get in behind D, and turn bad pucks into good ones. They have some ok puck possession wingers, but in the playoffs you've got to play north - south. Oilers forwards get exposed in that format. 

- That Nurse contract..... man. I don't see how you can ever get to a winning formula playing that guy 23-25 mins a night. Such a sub par defender. 

 

And on top of that, you've got Draisaitl a UFA in 2 and McDavid in 3. Clock is ticking and options seem limited. 

 

I can buy the argument the Leafs can just run it back but I don't se that argument for Edm. Every year it's the same formula as to why they lose. Feels like they need a big move to take the next step but what is that? I think the if the Oilers were smart they would be shopping Nurse but at the same time what's his value?

 

Can they keep Draisaitl?

 

Fascinating to me. 

 

The Nurse contract might be even worse than Huberdeau's contract.  At least Huberdeau has produced at an elite rate at one point and simply had a down year so one could believe he'll get back to that level with a change in scenery.  Nurse, on the other hand, has never been elite and was paid for his trajectory to become elite one day.  Yet, it's more clear by the day that Nurse doesn't have it in him and there's no reason to believe he will ever get to that level.  So that contract is about $5-mil overpaid.  He's only Hanifin's level... so a second pairing talent.  Imagine paying Hanifin $9.25-mil.  Ouch.

 

Campbell maybe worse than Markstrom as well.  At least Markstrom was Vezina-level recently.  If Flames retain some cap then he can be moved.  I think no one will want Campbell at $5-mil x 4-more as a backup.

 

But the Ekholm move was a good one.  They need one more.

 

But like you said, they need to pay Bouchard and then will have no more cap space remaining.  Nurse and Campbell need to be traded... They eat up $14-mil and preventing them from completing their team.

[cross16]

I thought Draisaitl was awesome in the first round, but he wasn't good against Vegas when it matters. 

 

Games 2 to 6 2 goals 3 points and a minus 6. Can't blame the slash for that IMO. 

 

It's part of the problem they have for sure. I get why they wouldn't want to move him but Draistal away from McDavid is just ok. So ideally if you have that 1-2 punch you build around both guys (Penguins model) but I don't think you can with Draisaitl. Can always pair him with McDavid, but they are both similar in that they are more finesse players, so who on that line plays the North -south, forecheck/dig out pucks game you need in the playoffs. 

 

I think taking calls on Draisaitl would make a lot of sense and the you use the pices to build around McDavid. I can't see how they can afford both of them anyway. But I also can't see why McDavid stays there. 

 

9 minutes ago, The_People1 said:

 

The Nurse contract might be even worse than Huberdeau's contract.  At least Huberdeau has produced at an elite rate at one point and simply had a down year so one could believe he'll get back to that level with a change in scenery.  Nurse, on the other hand, has never been elite and was paid for his trajectory to become elite one day.  Yet, it's more clear by the day that Nurse doesn't have it in him and there's no reason to believe he will ever get to that level.  So that contract is about $5-mil overpaid.  He's only Hanifin's level... so a second pairing talent.  Imagine paying Hanifin $9.25-mil.  Ouch.

 

Campbell maybe worse than Markstrom as well.  At least Markstrom was Vezina-level recently.  If Flames retain some cap then he can be moved.  I think no one will want Campbell at $5-mil x 4-more as a backup.

 

But the Ekholm move was a good one.  They need one more.

 

But like you said, they need to pay Bouchard and then will have no more cap space remaining.  Nurse and Campbell need to be traded... They eat up $14-mil and preventing them from completing their team.

 

Nurse is one of the worst contracts in the league and IMO it is much worse than the Huberdeau deal. Nurse was a masterclass in how you don't negotiate a contract. They ahd a chance to go term on him and pay for potential but they settled for a bridge. Then during that bridge deal he puts up some high end numbers, mostly due to the fact he plays on a stacked PP, and they fell for it and signed him for elite money in stead of waiting 1 more year to see the real impact. Yes Huberdeau got paid after a career year (never ideal) but at the same time he's been an elite player most of his time in the NHL. Nurse had 1 high end year and the rest is meh. 

 

All you had to do was watch Campbell in Toronto and know he wasn't the guy. I don't love the Markstrom deal but he carried a bad Vancouver team into the playoffs and kept them relevant for multiple years. Campbell but up avg numbers playing behind an elite defensive team. 

 

Ken Holland has no one to blame for this but himself. Has walked himself into problems when the data was obvious as to what the result was going to be. 

 

 

[cross16]

Seravelli speculating the Oilers could see some change this offseason. Holland to a POHO role and Staois as GM. 

 

Didn't realize Staois was in that org again. Did some really good work in the OHL

 

https://oilersnation.com/news/edmonton-oilers-off-season-moves-steve-staios-in-as-gm

[JTech780]

Not sure why Woodcroft kept going to Skinner in that series, it was pretty clear that he wasn’t getting it done. Campbell may not of fared much better, but at that point you have to at least try something different.

[The_People1]

15 minutes ago, cross16 said:

I thought Draisaitl was awesome in the first round, but he wasn't good against Vegas when it matters. 

 

Games 2 to 6 2 goals 3 points and a minus 6. Can't blame the slash for that IMO. 

 

It's part of the problem they have for sure. I get why they wouldn't want to move him but Draistal away from McDavid is just ok. So ideally if you have that 1-2 punch you build around both guys (Penguins model) but I don't think you can with Draisaitl. Can always pair him with McDavid, but they are both similar in that they are more finesse players, so who on that line plays the North -south, forecheck/dig out pucks game you need in the playoffs. 

 

I think taking calls on Draisaitl would make a lot of sense and the you use the pices to build around McDavid. I can't see how they can afford both of them anyway. But I also can't see why McDavid stays there. 

 

 

Nurse is one of the worst contracts in the league and IMO it is much worse than the Huberdeau deal. Nurse was a masterclass in how you don't negotiate a contract. They ahd a chance to go term on him and pay for potential but they settled for a bridge. Then during that bridge deal he puts up some high end numbers, mostly due to the fact he plays on a stacked PP, and they fell for it and signed him for elite money in stead of waiting 1 more year to see the real impact. Yes Huberdeau got paid after a career year (never ideal) but at the same time he's been an elite player most of his time in the NHL. Nurse had 1 high end year and the rest is meh. 

 

All you had to do was watch Campbell in Toronto and know he wasn't the guy. I don't love the Markstrom deal but he carried a bad Vancouver team into the playoffs and kept them relevant for multiple years. Campbell but up avg numbers playing behind an elite defensive team. 

 

Ken Holland has no one to blame for this but himself. Has walked himself into problems when the data was obvious as to what the result was going to be. 

 

Yes career year negotiations are traps.  But there was another factor at play... 

 

Part of the reason Nurse got paid so much was because there was a real threat he would leave Edmonton and go elsewhere.  The whole, "nobody wants to play in Edmonton" got real.

 

And well, Huberdeau and Weegar got what they got because "nobody wants to play in Calgary" was real.  The franchise had to make a statement that they can convince star players to stay in Calgary long term.

 

In regards to McDavid, I think he will leave as soon as he turns UFA.  It just so happens the Leafs lose Matthews and Tavares around the same time McDavid is UFA.  McDavid can go home to Toronto.

[The_People1]

15 minutes ago, JTech780 said:

Not sure why Woodcroft kept going to Skinner in that series, it was pretty clear that he wasn’t getting it done. Campbell may not of fared much better, but at that point you have to at least try something different.

 

This is a bad case of "going with the guy who got us here".  Clearly, Skinner wasn't working.  Give Campbell a start as he couldn't have been any worse.  Hindsight 20/20 I guess.

[cross16]

8 minutes ago, The_People1 said:

 

Yes career year negotiations are traps.  But there was another factor at play... 

 

Part of the reason Nurse got paid so much was because there was a real threat he would leave Edmonton and go elsewhere.  The whole, "nobody wants to play in Edmonton" got real.

 

And well, Huberdeau and Weegar got what they got because "nobody wants to play in Calgary" was real.  The franchise had to make a statement that they can convince star players to stay in Calgary long term.

 

In regards to McDavid, I think he will leave as soon as he turns UFA.  It just so happens the Leafs lose Matthews and Tavares around the same time McDavid is UFA.  McDavid can go home to Toronto.

 

I agree this is a thing (although I do think somewhat negated by the McDavid effect) but it is were the case, then don't bridge him. In 2020 he was an RFA and Holland gave him a 2 year deal walking him right to UFA. The very next summer he gave him the monster deal. 

 

6 minutes ago, The_People1 said:

 

This is a bad case of "going with the guy who got us here".  Clearly, Skinner wasn't working.  Give Campbell a start as he couldn't have been any worse.  Hindsight 20/20 I guess.

 

Are we sure? We saw Campbell in the regular season right?

 

Hindsight is always 20/20 and there I get the why not give it a try argument but I see why they didn't. There is really nothing out there to believe Campbell was going to fair based on both his play this season and his playoffs last year. 

 

I also don't think Skinner was to blame last night. 

[travel_dude]

36 minutes ago, cross16 said:

I thought Draisaitl was awesome in the first round, but he wasn't good against Vegas when it matters. 

 

Games 2 to 6 2 goals 3 points and a minus 6. Can't blame the slash for that IMO. 

 

It's part of the problem they have for sure. I get why they wouldn't want to move him but Draistal away from McDavid is just ok. So ideally if you have that 1-2 punch you build around both guys (Penguins model) but I don't think you can with Draisaitl. Can always pair him with McDavid, but they are both similar in that they are more finesse players, so who on that line plays the North -south, forecheck/dig out pucks game you need in the playoffs. 

 

I think taking calls on Draisaitl would make a lot of sense and the you use the pices to build around McDavid. I can't see how they can afford both of them anyway. But I also can't see why McDavid stays there. 

 

 

Nurse is one of the worst contracts in the league and IMO it is much worse than the Huberdeau deal. Nurse was a masterclass in how you don't negotiate a contract. They ahd a chance to go term on him and pay for potential but they settled for a bridge. Then during that bridge deal he puts up some high end numbers, mostly due to the fact he plays on a stacked PP, and they fell for it and signed him for elite money in stead of waiting 1 more year to see the real impact. Yes Huberdeau got paid after a career year (never ideal) but at the same time he's been an elite player most of his time in the NHL. Nurse had 1 high end year and the rest is meh. 

 

All you had to do was watch Campbell in Toronto and know he wasn't the guy. I don't love the Markstrom deal but he carried a bad Vancouver team into the playoffs and kept them relevant for multiple years. Campbell but up avg numbers playing behind an elite defensive team. 

 

Ken Holland has no one to blame for this but himself. Has walked himself into problems when the data was obvious as to what the result was going to be. 

 

 

 

I found it interesting that the analysts seemed to think EDM was so close and just needed to run it back next year.  That seems like they have no clue about the cap.  I agree that they have two players that are elite when they play together.  You can't touch them because they were very much like our top line last year.  They know where a player is and will be.  That implies one very good line there.

 

Nurse is a killer to the team.  Ekholm and Bouch are the pair that made a difference, but Bouch has a few years of steady growth ahead needed.  

 

Skinner is a study in a rookie goalie and how you can't just rely on them through a good stretch and all of the playoffs.  Overall, neither him nor Campbell were enough on their own to make a cup contender.  Played well then played like crap.  You might build on their recent performance, but they are as likely to take a step back next year.

 

Cap hell for them.  Yamamoto is not even worth it, Kane didn't have a good 2nd half, and Nuge is a huge price to pay for whatever he is considered to be.  2C or 3C or 2LW.  Not sure.  I think Hyman is their hardest working F.  Draisaitl looks lazy unless he is driving the net or one timing it.  

 

They need are-tool to go anywhere.

[travel_dude]

9 minutes ago, cross16 said:

Are we sure? We saw Campbell in the regular season right?

 

Hindsight is always 20/20 and there I get the why not give it a try argument but I see why they didn't. There is really nothing out there to believe Campbell was going to fair based on both his play this season and his playoffs last year. 

 

I also don't think Skinner was to blame last night. 

 

What would keeping in Skinner have changed in the last two losses?  I don't know if Campbell would have been any better starting any of the games.  They didn't lose the series because of the goalie.  He didn't steal the last two games for them, but they sure waited long enough to start scoring goals.  17 shots to 8 and they had a one goal lead?  Sounded like Sutter score effect.  Vegas came back and was efficient.  EDM using the same two players to score and they weren't getting it done as a pair.  A 5 minute PP in game 5 and they only get one goal?  This after already losing Pietrangelo to suspension, so Vegas was not exactly stacked.

[Heartbreaker]

32 minutes ago, travel_dude said:

 

What would keeping in Skinner have changed in the last two losses?  I don't know if Campbell would have been any better starting any of the games.  They didn't lose the series because of the goalie.  He didn't steal the last two games for them, but they sure waited long enough to start scoring goals.  17 shots to 8 and they had a one goal lead?  Sounded like Sutter score effect.  Vegas came back and was efficient.  EDM using the same two players to score and they weren't getting it done as a pair.  A 5 minute PP in game 5 and they only get one goal?  This after already losing Pietrangelo to suspension, so Vegas was not exactly stacked.

 

Funny you say that. I watched the press conference with Jay Woodcroft after the game, and he said:

We scored two goals five-on-five. That should be enough to win.

 

I thought of Darryl Sutter immediately, and the objective to win the game 2-1.

 

Love.

[travel_dude]

2 minutes ago, Heartbreaker said:

 

Funny you say that. I watched the press conference with Jay Woodcroft after the game, and he said:

We scored two goals five-on-five. That should be enough to win.

 

I thought of Darryl Sutter immediately, and the objective to win the game 2-1.

 

Love.

 

LOL.  

I'm not sure, but I think he implied that their PP was gold so they only needed a couple of EV goals.

To me that is saying you expect to get 3-5 PP's per game and know you will score 2+.

That's the opposite of a game plan.

You try to win EV and whatever PP goals you get just puts you over the top.

They didn't get a PP goal so they didn't have a chance.

 

I think Jay is a decent coach, but that's like saying you are a good player playing with Connor.  The coaching mistakes were amplified by the sometimes poor performance of certain players.  

 

Anyway, suck it Oilers until next season.

[jjgallow]

4 hours ago, JTech780 said:

Not sure why Woodcroft kept going to Skinner in that series, it was pretty clear that he wasn’t getting it done. Campbell may not of fared much better, but at that point you have to at least try something different.

 

To be fair, Campbell was just aweful all year.  Like, really aweful.

 

Or was he?

 

Problem likely runs deeper than the goalies.  

 

And it's probably too late to fix at this stage with this core.

[jjgallow]

 

 

So this got some bad press.  lol

[Thebrewcrew]

Next year is massive for Edmonton, as others have mentioned.

 

Only 2yrs of Draisaitl at 8.5 is the big one. I think they almost have to make the finals next year. Otherwise I really don't see the incentive for him to extend a year out from UFA. This is more a small market Canadian team thing than an Oiler thing, but I don't see the German player wanting to spend 20yrs playing in one of the leagues smallest markets.

 

What they should do is try to sell high on RNH. He had 100pts and has a good cap hit. Issue is the NMC. It's not realistic though. They'll ship out Foegele and Yamamoto.

 

i expect they'll run back largely the same team. Wondering about Kane and his shelf-life. He tends to wear out his welcome and he was nowhere near as effective this year as last.

 

 

[tmac70]

Seeing Coilers lose out and TO was like an early Xmas gift. These two teams I just can't stand at all, it's more the announcers and bloody annoying fans that drive me nuts. Anyway, I can't lie was a glorious week seeing them fall flat.