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Realistic (and unrealistic) Trades - 2024 Edition


travel_dude

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2 hours ago, cross16 said:

 

Devils have a lot of flexibility. They are not using Hamilton's LTIR so they have that and next year for 14 players they have 20 million in cap space. Outside of Toffoli and Mercer that's is a lot of money to fill out the roster. Neither Toffoli, nor Mercer are going to warrant that large of contracts right now. 

 

I think the Devils would want Vanacek in the deal to free up both the space and that cap, but they don't need to include Mercer for salary reasons.  

 

I don't think Mercer would ever be on th table.  We would need Vanacek just to have 2 actual NHL goalies.

 

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46 minutes ago, travel_dude said:

 

I don't think Mercer would ever be on th table.  We would need Vanacek just to have 2 actual NHL goalies.

 

My take is nobody is ever off the table ..the very fact we are having markstrom conversations shows that.. it comes down to how bad does a team want or need what you have .. if it's not uncomfortable, it's likely an underpay.. they're getting over 2 years of control for a difference maker goaltender .. you're not getting that for a pick and a B prospect ..or a 4th liner .. 

Trading markstrom should be a guarantee that wolf is up next year ..we don't need Vanacek..he can platoon with Vladar..but if it had to happen then vladar has to go 

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11 minutes ago, phoenix66 said:

My take is nobody is ever off the table ..the very fact we are having markstrom conversations shows that.. it comes down to how bad does a team want or need what you have .. if it's not uncomfortable, it's likely an underpay.. they're getting over 2 years of control for a difference maker goaltender .. you're not getting that for a pick and a B prospect ..or a 4th liner .. 

Trading markstrom should be a guarantee that wolf is up next year ..we don't need Vanacek..he can platoon with Vladar..but if it had to happen then vladar has to go 

 

I'm just saying that he is a future star on that team.  Already 50 something goals in 3 seasons.  He is probably the replacement for Haula in the near future or a top line RW.  Never say never, but this one seems to be the least possible scenaario.

 

Some news out from Frank.  Said that Markstrom was asked to waive and approved a trade to NJ.  That was before the breakdown.  It might signal the end of discussion or lead to something.

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1 hour ago, phoenix66 said:

My take is nobody is ever off the table ..the very fact we are having markstrom conversations shows that.. it comes down to how bad does a team want or need what you have .. if it's not uncomfortable, it's likely an underpay.. they're getting over 2 years of control for a difference maker goaltender .. you're not getting that for a pick and a B prospect ..or a 4th liner .. 

Trading markstrom should be a guarantee that wolf is up next year ..we don't need Vanacek..he can platoon with Vladar..but if it had to happen then vladar has to go 

 

If that picks is a first what goalie went for more?

 

The Avs gave up basically that package for Keumper for a year (more because they won the cup). Keumper was in his prime and not 34. 

Cory Schneider didn't return a roster player and he was traded as one of the best goalie in the league at the time. Many, many years of control. 

Semyon Varlamov cost a 1 and a 2nd and that was for years of control. 

 

The standard there is a 1, maybe 1 other pick and then at best a B/C prospect. sure you can counter and try to suggest Markstrom is worth more because of his play but IMO that is negated by the fact he's 34, had some injuries, and has a record of rocky play since coming to Calgary. 

 

There really is nothing out there to suggest that if the Flames are trading Markstrom they are going to get more than what you've outlined here. 

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1 hour ago, cross16 said:

 

If that picks is a first what goalie went for more?

 

The Avs gave up basically that package for Keumper for a year (more because they won the cup). Keumper was in his prime and not 34. 

Cory Schneider didn't return a roster player and he was traded as one of the best goalie in the league at the time. Many, many years of control. 

Semyon Varlamov cost a 1 and a 2nd and that was for years of control. 

 

The standard there is a 1, maybe 1 other pick and then at best a B/C prospect. sure you can counter and try to suggest Markstrom is worth more because of his play but IMO that is negated by the fact he's 34, had some injuries, and has a record of rocky play since coming to Calgary. 

 

There really is nothing out there to suggest that if the Flames are trading Markstrom they are going to get more than what you've outlined here. 

Ryan Miller who was only a rental got a haul.. Luongo to Vancouver ...  Roy to Colorado...  All were substantial returns..there's been a few more ..  

 

We're taking a guy who had one down year in three. Is playing Vezina quality in this one too .. again it's up to those teams to comvince us to part with him.. either way,he leaves for a haul or we keep him,  we win..

 

Schneider also got a top 5 pick in a deep draft .nj doesn't have that

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9 minutes ago, phoenix66 said:

Ryan Miller who was only a rental got a haul.. Luongo to Vancouver ...  Roy to Colorado...  All were substantial returns..there's been a few more ..  

 

We're taking a guy who had one down year in three. Is playing Vezina quality in this one too .. again it's up to those teams to comvince us to part with him.. either way,he leaves for a haul or we keep him,  we win..

 

Schneider also got a top 5 pick in a deep draft .nj doesn't have that

 

Schneider got the 9th pick, Bo Horvat.

Ryan Miller, who was also traded with Steve Ott returned Halak, Chris Stewart, William Carrier a 1st and a 3rd.  That essentially breaks down as 2 cap dumps, 1 good prospect and a 1 and a 3. Carrier was a good prospect at the time. Halak never actually played for the Sabres.  

If we are looking at Hall of fame goalies with several years of control to justify a big return I think that's just further proof that your not likely going to get a sizable haul here. 

 

I don't think it's 1 down year. Markstrom was ok his first year here, tremendous his 2nd, awful his 3rd and now is very good. Now a lot of that up and down is injury related, to be fair to him, but it also highlights why I question why people think a team is going to pay up for a 34 year old goalie with that injury/performance history. 

 

I get not everyone wants to move him but I think the Flames would be wise to do it either here at the TDL or in the offseason. I wouldn't run the risk of injury or a decrease in play to hold out for what looks like an unrealistic return. That is my point. 

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11 minutes ago, cross16 said:

 

Schneider got the 9th pick, Bo Horvat.

Ryan Miller, who was also traded with Steve Ott returned Halak, Chris Stewart, William Carrier a 1st and a 3rd.  That essentially breaks down as 2 cap dumps, 1 good prospect and a 1 and a 3. Carrier was a good prospect at the time. Halak never actually played for the Sabres.  

If we are looking at Hall of fame goalies with several years of control to justify a big return I think that's just further proof that your not likely going to get a sizable haul here. 

 

I don't think it's 1 down year. Markstrom was ok his first year here, tremendous his 2nd, awful his 3rd and now is very good. Now a lot of that up and down is injury related, to be fair to him, but it also highlights why I question why people think a team is going to pay up for a 34 year old goalie with that injury/performance history. 

 

I get not everyone wants to move him but I think the Flames would be wise to do it either here at the TDL or in the offseason. I wouldn't run the risk of injury or a decrease in play to hold out for what looks like an unrealistic return. That is my point. 

 

I see Markstrom as having two good years so far.

His first year was great then fell apart, and yes I can blame the injury but still.

The year he had 9 or 10 SO, he fell apart in the playoffs.

Lots of blame to go around, but that was the result.

The next year, not good.

This year great even though the losses say otherwise.

 

I don't see how we can expect to get a top return without some considerations.

Maybe it's a retention, but that's difficult to deal with longer than a year.

Maybe a lesser return, but it should be something worth it to us.

It means that we are in the summer without a NHL starter.

Maybe okay for toiling in the bottom of the league but has to be addressed.

 

If we are getting a solid offer, we should do as much as we can to make it happen.

Or just hold off and wait for the summer or next season.

 

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21 minutes ago, phoenix66 said:

Ryan Miller who was only a rental got a haul.. Luongo to Vancouver ...  Roy to Colorado...  All were substantial returns..there's been a few more ..  

 

We're taking a guy who had one down year in three. Is playing Vezina quality in this one too .. again it's up to those teams to comvince us to part with him.. either way,he leaves for a haul or we keep him,  we win..

 

Schneider also got a top 5 pick in a deep draft .nj doesn't have that

I think the Luongo back to Florida is a greater comparison for Markstrom, in which Markstrom was the actual only real hope for it being a decent return for Vancouver, and he was trending down at the time in Florida.  Luongo's contract was for 8 more years being the difference, but he didn't have significant drops in play year over year and had sub 2.50 GAA and .917%.  Not a great comp, there aren't many great comps to go off for goalies over 30 with term in the cap era or the salary retention era.

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Servalli is using the Hampus Lindholm as a comp for Hanifin:

That trade was done at TDL for:

1st in 2022, 2nd in 2023, 2nd in 2024, Urho Vaakanainen, John Moore.

Vaakanainen is still young, big and is playing for Anaheim.

Moore did not play after the trade that I can tell and was a cap dump of $2.75M.

 

That's a good trade for Anaheim and BOS was able to sign Lindholm.

Not sure that is the best comp, but it's reasonable.

 

 

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I think if there is a chance you get get a good, heck even decent, return for Markstrom I think the Flames need to be a bit more aggressive. The thought seems to be "well they have 2 years they can wait" but there is risk in that too. 

 

This off-season Ilya Sorokin is a free agent with Valarmov already getting paid starter money. 

Swayman is an RFA in Boston and Ullmark only has 1 more left before UFA. Can they keep both? do they want to?

Saros is 1 year away from UFA with Askarov in the pipeline. If Nashville stays true to form I think they are putting Saros on the trade market this off-season. If you price our NJ I think Nashville is where they could pivot too. 

That's just some bigger names, let alone the countless roll the dice options you've got on the UFA market this year

 

This is part of trading a goalie I don't think many realize it's not exactly a massive drop down from the top to the middle. I think this is a big reason why you don't see goalies trading for premium packages, teams just can't justify it because there's cheaper options out there. Can argue that's the wrong approach but I think it's how the league works. 

 

I don't see this as a the Flames can name their price and let a team blow them away type scenario. Not saying they have to move him either but I'd be more aggressive if I were Conroy here.  Of course the return has to make sense, I just don't like the philosophy of waiting on such a volatile position/player. 

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The Flames were a bit wish washy in the off season about what they were going to do but something I think that is becoming pretty clear this week is that the Flames want to start building towards 2026/27 and the new building.  It sounds like the idea of them needing to get into the playoffs is taking a backseat to what can we do to get younger and better 2-3 years from now. I think the re tool is officially on. 

 

Don't think that means fire sale but I'm now in the camp that I will be shocked if Markstrom is a Flame by the start of next season. 

 

Edit: and right on cue there is a new number 1 on TSN trade bait board and it's Jacob Markstrom

 

 

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5 minutes ago, cross16 said:

The Flames were a bit wish washy in the off season about what they were going to do but something I think that is becoming pretty clear this week is that the Flames want to start building towards 2026/27 and the new building.  It sounds like the idea of them needing to get into the playoffs is taking a backseat to what can we do to get younger and better 2-3 years from now. I think the re tool is officially on. 

 

Don't think that means fire sale but I'm now in the camp that I will be shocked if Markstrom is a Flame by the start of next season. 

 

 

I agree but would love to see Marky mentoring Wolf. but if they can cash in on his performence... so dam do it. 55 probably gone... IMO he would have been re-signed if he desided to stay. but also there will be a nice return.

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14 minutes ago, cross16 said:

The Flames were a bit wish washy in the off season about what they were going to do but something I think that is becoming pretty clear this week is that the Flames want to start building towards 2026/27 and the new building.  It sounds like the idea of them needing to get into the playoffs is taking a backseat to what can we do to get younger and better 2-3 years from now. I think the re tool is officially on. 

 

Don't think that means fire sale but I'm now in the camp that I will be shocked if Markstrom is a Flame by the start of next season. 

 

Edit: and right on cue there is a new number 1 on TSN trade bait board and it's Jacob Markstrom

 

 

I probably scoffed a bit too much at the burn it down crowd, but the season has turned out to support the fact we are farther from being a contender than a basement dweller.  Two years in a row that we are trending in the wrong direction.  Marky has a good season and we are points out of a WC spot.  Marky had a lesser season and we were points out of a WC spot.  If the point is to get better, and we have already traded our "top" C, then we have to go deeper than just a Tanev or Hanifin.  

 

Huberdeau and Kadri will need to remain at a high level to bring along the kids and new prospects.  Whether we just go with Wolf and Vladar or pick up a more likely starter, we have to seriously consider trading Markstrom.  I don't know how much of his struggles are with the team in front or his usage or how he plays the puck.  I think he will last his contract, but then what.  By 2026, will he be that relevant?

 

I believe it's a matter of time before 2-3 players are traded.  It would be safer to trade Tanev now, but the offers may not be there yet.  Not much time for teams to deal, so they need to up their offers or risk losing out.  On our side, they also need to be careful they don't overplay him or wait too long.  Game of chicken.  Hanifin is in a weird space.  Like Lindholm, they know that he is wanting out (if he isn't signing).  But you can't lowball a 2/3 D-man.  

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16 minutes ago, flames-fan-in-jets-land said:

I think Mercer is being overvalued, at barely a .5 ppg he shouldnt be the main piece of a deal. As an RFA he should get a show me deal if anything.

 

It doesn't matter how we view the player as it does how NJ views him.  

1st year in the NHL 17 goals, 2nd 27 goals, 3rd 15 so far.

RHS C that can play the wing.

 

Zary may be close to him in numbers, but they are the same age; one in his 3rd NHL season.

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22 minutes ago, travel_dude said:

 

It doesn't matter how we view the player as it does how NJ views him.  

1st year in the NHL 17 goals, 2nd 27 goals, 3rd 15 so far.

RHS C that can play the wing.

 

Zary may be close to him in numbers, but they are the same age; one in his 3rd NHL season.

No argument that he could be a very good player, hes just not at the point that hes the key piece coming back. If Tanev and Hanifin are gone then you need replacements

 

Markstrom + 3rd for Nemec + Vanacek

 

Jersey wants to win asap, make them pay.

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1 hour ago, flames-fan-in-jets-land said:

I think Mercer is being overvalued, at barely a .5 ppg he shouldnt be the main piece of a deal. As an RFA he should get a show me deal if anything.

 

His play goes beyond his points though. He's really solid in all areas and has a profile of a player that will eventually pop. A lot like Travis Konecky. 

 

Yes he may not be a top line PPG guy but I think he's the type of player GMs crave to have because of how many ways he can impact the game. 

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3 hours ago, cross16 said:

 

His play goes beyond his points though. He's really solid in all areas and has a profile of a player that will eventually pop. A lot like Travis Konecky. 

 

Yes he may not be a top line PPG guy but I think he's the type of player GMs crave to have because of how many ways he can impact the game. 

Thats fine and all but I think a main piece should be more of a difference maker since thats whats going the other way.

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11 minutes ago, flames-fan-in-jets-land said:

Thats fine and all but I think a main piece should be more of a difference maker since thats whats going the other way.

 

Good luck. I think you'll be holding on to Markstrom if that's the price tag. I don't think there is a team out there that is giving you that. 

 

I think the Flames are pushing for Mercer to be in the deal but I doubt the Devils flinch. Your for sure not getting Nemec. 

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I was dreaming last night about a mega trade with TML, that might put them over the top in the next 3 years as well as add top-level and younger players here.  Here goes:

 

To TML:

Roster=Hanifin-$5(sign 8yrs & trade), Tanev-$4.5(sign 4 yrs), Huberdeau-$10.5, Pelletier-$0.9, Oesterle-$0.9.  Futures=Yegorov, plus retained draft picks.

$21.8 total(2024)

 

To Flames:

Roster=Marner-$10.9, Liljegan-$1.4, Bertuzzi-$5.5.  Futures=Niemela-$0.8, Cowan-$0.9, Minten-$0.8

$20.3 total(2024)

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4 hours ago, cberg said:

I was dreaming last night about a mega trade with TML, that might put them over the top in the next 3 years as well as add top-level and younger players here.  Here goes:

 

To TML:

Roster=Hanifin-$5(sign 8yrs & trade), Tanev-$4.5(sign 4 yrs), Huberdeau-$10.5, Pelletier-$0.9, Oesterle-$0.9.  Futures=Yegorov, plus retained draft picks.

$21.8 total(2024)

 

To Flames:

Roster=Marner-$10.9, Liljegan-$1.4, Bertuzzi-$5.5.  Futures=Niemela-$0.8, Cowan-$0.9, Minten-$0.8

$20.3 total(2024)

 

Interesting trade fodder.  I've seen worse.

Marner has 1.3 years left on his contract and goes UFA last making $10.6M on the cap.

Bert is 28 and a UFA this summer, where he took the deal in TO to set up for next deal.

 

I can't really tell if the three new players make us better.

Re-signing for all three players:

2024 - Bert $5-7M depending on term.

2024 - Liljegren $2M ?

2025 - Marner $12M ?

 

That's a lot of cap for just 2 players not referred to as the best in the league.

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24 minutes ago, travel_dude said:

 

Interesting trade fodder.  I've seen worse.

Marner has 1.3 years left on his contract and goes UFA last making $10.6M on the cap.

Bert is 28 and a UFA this summer, where he took the deal in TO to set up for next deal.

 

I can't really tell if the three new players make us better.

Re-signing for all three players:

2024 - Bert $5-7M depending on term.

2024 - Liljegren $2M ?

2025 - Marner $12M ?

 

That's a lot of cap for just 2 players not referred to as the best in the league.

I was thinking that Huberdeau & Pelletier roughly balance out Marner & Bertuzzi, but much cheaper, and the big defensive improvement is paid for by the 3 young prospects.  They give the Flames some young talent with the option of either re-signing or trading Marner and Bertuzzi.  It also gives Tre a couple of high-end prospects and they keep all their picks.  

I know Toronto is infatuated with their “core 4” but it hasn’t worked and they need to improve on their defense.  If they want Markstrom too,  add in a trio of picks…

 

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So, just to add fuel to the fire....

Markstrom not on the ice today (optional skate for him).

Wolf in starter net and Vladar backing up.

Wolf was on an emergency recall due to Vladar being on IR.

So far Vladar still showing on IR.

But if he's on the ice?

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