2024 NHL draft - A New Hope

[conundrumed]

1 hour ago, cberg said:

Question for all you draft  experts:  How many players in this draft have a realistic/possible ceiling of a/ Top Line, b/ Top Pair D, c/Starting Goalie?  Who are they?  How many in the 1st Round?

Celebrini, of course. Helenius, Levshunov, Buium and Dickinson are virtually nails for me. Helenius should be a 1C, Levshunov a 1D, Dickinson and Buium at least top 2.

Levshunov is on another planet, honestly.

I can't speak for the Russians at all, I've seen so little of them. I'd just be the internet echo chamber. I've liked Helenius for a long time now. Aho-potential for me. Elite IQ and very good everything else. Gotta be a 2C floor. I'd love us to take him, if not a dman.

He takes virtually zero time to be noticeable in good ways.

I think Levshunov is the most NHL-ready. He is built like a brick Satoshi Nakamotohouse. I could see him with Anaheim next year. 2 years in NA. The guy's a frigging freak of nature. USHL was nothing, NCAA was nothing. This cat, I doubt anyone even knows his ceiling. It's wild that he arrived from Belarus and just took over in virtually no time. Are we sure this guy's only 18? lol

[cberg]

49 minutes ago, conundrumed said:

Celebrini, of course. Helenius, Levshunov, Buium and Dickinson are virtually nails for me. Helenius should be a 1C, Levshunov a 1D, Dickinson and Buium at least top 2.

Levshunov is on another planet, honestly.

I can't speak for the Russians at all, I've seen so little of them. I'd just be the internet echo chamber. I've liked Helenius for a long time now. Aho-potential for me. Elite IQ and very good everything else. Gotta be a 2C floor. I'd love us to take him, if not a dman.

He takes virtually zero time to be noticeable in good ways.

I think Levshunov is the most NHL-ready. He is built like a brick Satoshi Nakamotohouse. I could see him with Anaheim next year. 2 years in NA. The guy's a frigging freak of nature. USHL was nothing, NCAA was nothing. This cat, I doubt anyone even knows his ceiling. It's wild that he arrived from Belarus and just took over in virtually no time. Are we sure this guy's only 18? lol

So, I’m interpreting these 5 are your first ledge, albeit Celebrini might be at the top by himself, with little risk they will make it.  I’m guessing the next ledge would include several players, eg Catton and Silyov, others(?) who might make my criteria but there are too many unknowns, or too much risk they ever get there?  Continuing down the list the players either will never make it to that level, or perhaps are so late developing or have too many current warts/attributes, ie poor skating (Eiserman) that the risk/probability of achieving that high of a ceiling is unreasonably high (ie Gaudreau?)…. 
 

I’m trying to think through the likelihood of multiple top level hits the Flames might have, and how and whether that impact’s potential trades?  
 

of course, this is only top level players, hockey is a massively team sport and lower level players can be just as important to success, or lack thereof, looking at you TML.  

[conundrumed]

28 minutes ago, cberg said:

So, I’m interpreting these 5 are your first ledge, albeit Celebrini might be at the top by himself, with little risk they will make it.  I’m guessing the next ledge would include several players, eg Catton and Silyov, others(?) who might make my criteria but there are too many unknowns, or too much risk they ever get there?  Continuing down the list the players either will never make it to that level, or perhaps are so late developing or have too many current warts/attributes, ie poor skating (Eiserman) that the risk/probability of achieving that high of a ceiling is unreasonably high (ie Gaudreau?)…. 
 

I’m trying to think through the likelihood of multiple top level hits the Flames might have, and how and whether that impact’s potential trades?  
 

of course, this is only top level players, hockey is a massively team sport and lower level players can be just as important to success, or lack thereof, looking at you TML.  

I have not watched Russians this year, so my opinion is virtually zero. Whereas last year I watched a fair few with Michkov and Simashev. Just in reading, I don't think the top 2 this year are as good as the top 2 last year.

Artamonov seems like a total wildcard for where he might land.

 

As far as the Flames, I'd say they have 5 really solid bullets in the chamber. They should come away with a nice mix of skill and potential. Potential is definitely the most under-rated quality, as your trying to project guys 3-4 yrs out.

Jiri Fischer's kid, Lukas, comes to mind. Plays for the Sting. He's an honest 6'3" right now, but is likely not done growing. Chances are better than avg that he'll top out at least 6'5". That would change the dynamic of his ranking right now. So they say he's raw. He has great skills, but it's expected that he's still growing. He likely won't be around at the Dallas pick, but I'd give him heavy consideration if he was.

Because there is a lot of potential there, and lineage, of course plays into it. Jiri's like 6'6" and his older bro is 6'7" if I remember correctly.

So it's pretty fickle between what a kid is now vs @ 23yo.

I don't envy NHL scouts, it's such a fine line.

For the record, I still think Kerins and Stromgren are our best prospects. People tend to write things off way too early. I also think Sam Morton is a sneaky good add. Older, but hey, if he wants to be a bottom 6 C at 26-27, I'm all for it.

You can't just have 4 top 2 dmen in a cap world, or you better be deciding which ones to trade to boost other areas that will undoubtedly be weaknesses.

Look no further than the Leafs and Oilers. You can be very O-centic if you like, but you're going to have big problems with D-centric teams and stellar goalies. A big problem.

Kind of obvious, I know. You need to account for more than potential stars when drafting.

[robrob74]

1 hour ago, conundrumed said:

I have not watched Russians this year, so my opinion is virtually zero. Whereas last year I watched a fair few with Michkov and Simashev. Just in reading, I don't think the top 2 this year are as good as the top 2 last year.

Artamonov seems like a total wildcard for where he might land.

 

As far as the Flames, I'd say they have 5 really solid bullets in the chamber. They should come away with a nice mix of skill and potential. Potential is definitely the most under-rated quality, as your trying to project guys 3-4 yrs out.

Jiri Fischer's kid, Lukas, comes to mind. Plays for the Sting. He's an honest 6'3" right now, but is likely not done growing. Chances are better than avg that he'll top out at least 6'5". That would change the dynamic of his ranking right now. So they say he's raw. He has great skills, but it's expected that he's still growing. He likely won't be around at the Dallas pick, but I'd give him heavy consideration if he was.

Because there is a lot of potential there, and lineage, of course plays into it. Jiri's like 6'6" and his older bro is 6'7" if I remember correctly.

So it's pretty fickle between what a kid is now vs @ 23yo.

I don't envy NHL scouts, it's such a fine line.

For the record, I still think Kerins and Stromgren are our best prospects. People tend to write things off way too early. I also think Sam Morton is a sneaky good add. Older, but hey, if he wants to be a bottom 6 C at 26-27, I'm all for it.

You can't just have 4 top 2 dmen in a cap world, or you better be deciding which ones to trade to boost other areas that will undoubtedly be weaknesses.

Look no further than the Leafs and Oilers. You can be very O-centic if you like, but you're going to have big problems with D-centric teams and stellar goalies. A big problem.

Kind of obvious, I know. You need to account for more than potential stars when drafting.

I wonder if it is a coincidence that Conroy traded for a bunch of Russians and have Russians in mind for the draft or signings?  Might start fostering a community comfort for some up and coming prospects.

[cberg]

1 hour ago, conundrumed said:

I have not watched Russians this year, so my opinion is virtually zero. Whereas last year I watched a fair few with Michkov and Simashev. Just in reading, I don't think the top 2 this year are as good as the top 2 last year.

Artamonov seems like a total wildcard for where he might land.

 

As far as the Flames, I'd say they have 5 really solid bullets in the chamber. They should come away with a nice mix of skill and potential. Potential is definitely the most under-rated quality, as your trying to project guys 3-4 yrs out.

Jiri Fischer's kid, Lukas, comes to mind. Plays for the Sting. He's an honest 6'3" right now, but is likely not done growing. Chances are better than avg that he'll top out at least 6'5". That would change the dynamic of his ranking right now. So they say he's raw. He has great skills, but it's expected that he's still growing. He likely won't be around at the Dallas pick, but I'd give him heavy consideration if he was.

Because there is a lot of potential there, and lineage, of course plays into it. Jiri's like 6'6" and his older bro is 6'7" if I remember correctly.

So it's pretty fickle between what a kid is now vs @ 23yo.

I don't envy NHL scouts, it's such a fine line.

For the record, I still think Kerins and Stromgren are our best prospects. People tend to write things off way too early. I also think Sam Morton is a sneaky good add. Older, but hey, if he wants to be a bottom 6 C at 26-27, I'm all for it.

You can't just have 4 top 2 dmen in a cap world, or you better be deciding which ones to trade to boost other areas that will undoubtedly be weaknesses.

Look no further than the Leafs and Oilers. You can be very O-centic if you like, but you're going to have big problems with D-centric teams and stellar goalies. A big problem.

Kind of obvious, I know. You need to account for more than potential stars when drafting.

Yeah, D wins championships, but you also need enough offence to win games. I was thinking this morning how many SC champs over the past couple decades have been led by "superstars", versus not?  Not sure who are the superstars?  Crosby probably tops of them all.... 

 

Since 2000 these teams have won a SC:

NJD-Brodeur, Niedermayer

Colorado Avalanche-Roy, McKinnon, Forsberg, Sakic

Detroit-Zetterburg, Lidstrom

TBL-Stamkos, Vasilevski

Carolina-Brind'Amour

Anaheim-Pronger, Getzlaf

Pittsburg-Crosby, Malkin, Fleury

Chicago-Kane, Toews

Boston-Chara

LAK-Kopitar

Washington-Ovechkin

St Louis-

Vegas-Eichel

 

In this same time period Calgary had Iginla, Kiprusoff.... never quite put it together, although 2004 in retrospect should have been.  

 

PS: Great Stromgren game-winning goal for the Wranglers last night.  

 

 

[cberg]

22 minutes ago, robrob74 said:

I wonder if it is a coincidence that Conroy traded for a bunch of Russians and have Russians in mind for the draft or signings?  Might start fostering a community comfort for some up and coming prospects.

Agree, or at the least they've recognized a relatively untapped market, and with the current world situation, the prospects are probably thrilled for an opportunity here... 

[conundrumed]

24 minutes ago, cberg said:

PS: Great Stromgren game-winning goal for the Wranglers last night.

He's coming along, I think. I feel like he's our most under-rated. He was drafted on potential. He really hasn't had compelling ice-time for a few years. Only 21 in a few months. It seems sometimes that people are mad at him. lol

Hey, I'll take a solid mid-line LW all day in the 2nd rd. Knowing I'm waiting 5 years. I think he's going through growth atm. He has the size and ability, just have to wait out the maturity, like most prospects.

Mind you, I really liked Ronni too and saw him live a few times. Ouch.

[robrob74]

1 hour ago, cberg said:

Yeah, D wins championships, but you also need enough offence to win games. I was thinking this morning how many SC champs over the past couple decades have been led by "superstars", versus not?  Not sure who are the superstars?  Crosby probably tops of them all.... 

 

Since 2000 these teams have won a SC:

NJD-Brodeur, Niedermayer

Colorado Avalanche-Roy, McKinnon, Forsberg, Sakic

Detroit-Zetterburg, Lidstrom

TBL-Stamkos, Vasilevski

Carolina-Brind'Amour

Anaheim-Pronger, Getzlaf

Pittsburg-Crosby, Malkin, Fleury

Chicago-Kane, Toews

Boston-Chara

LAK-Kopitar

Washington-Ovechkin

St Louis-

Vegas-Eichel

 

In this same time period Calgary had Iginla, Kiprusoff.... never quite put it together, although 2004 in retrospect should have been.  

 

PS: Great Stromgren game-winning goal for the Wranglers last night.  

 

 

you can also add Makar to the Avs.

TBL also had Hedman and other pretty close to elite D,  and Point?

Pits had an in-prime Letang who was bordering on Elite. I dunno if some might consider him that. 
Didn't Anaheim also have Niedermayer when they won? Detroit also had Datsyuk. And Colorado, did they have Rob Blake when Sakic and Forsberg won?

 

Chicago had an elite D in Keith, Seabrook great at defending.

 

Boston had Bergeron and the weasel guy .

 

LA had Doughty

 

Ovechkin had elite C with him and can't think of the D.

 

St Louis has close to elite D and a solid forward group. Probably as close as Calgary will get to if they skip ahead of the retooling.

 

 

Since it's the way the organization tends to trend, I think them and Dallas is kind of how I feel they should build, also Carolina.

 

 

Draft well and build and shore up a solid core, keep drafting well and only trade the tertiary players once those players can be supplanted by younger players.

 

i really think there's a solid foundation built on all those cup winners and a commitment to the elite players to add around them. What they all have in common are solid building and years of it.

 

in my mind, they built then sacrificed futures once the window opened up, and instead of sacrificing  future to fill holes quicker thus maintaining holes. 

[cberg]

1 hour ago, conundrumed said:

He's coming along, I think. I feel like he's our most under-rated. He was drafted on potential. He really hasn't had compelling ice-time for a few years. Only 21 in a few months. It seems sometimes that people are mad at him. lol

Hey, I'll take a solid mid-line LW all day in the 2nd rd. Knowing I'm waiting 5 years. I think he's going through growth atm. He has the size and ability, just have to wait out the maturity, like most prospects.

Mind you, I really liked Ronni too and saw him live a few times. Ouch.

Waiting several years is a challenge, but should be the normal expectation.  

[cberg]

52 minutes ago, robrob74 said:

you can also add Makar to the Avs.

TBL also had Hedman and other pretty close to elite D,  and Point?

Pits had an in-prime Letang who was bordering on Elite. I dunno if some might consider him that. 
Didn't Anaheim also have Niedermayer when they won? Detroit also had Datsyuk. And Colorado, did they have Rob Blake when Sakic and Forsberg won?

 

Chicago had an elite D in Keith, Seabrook great at defending.

 

Boston had Bergeron and the weasel guy .

 

LA had Doughty

 

Ovechkin had elite C with him and can't think of the D.

 

St Louis has close to elite D and a solid forward group. Probably as close as Calgary will get to if they skip ahead of the retooling.

 

 

Since it's the way the organization tends to trend, I think them and Dallas is kind of how I feel they should build, also Carolina.

 

 

Draft well and build and shore up a solid core, keep drafting well and only trade the tertiary players once those players can be supplanted by younger players.

 

i really think there's a solid foundation built on all those cup winners and a commitment to the elite players to add around them. What they all have in common are solid building and years of it.

 

in my mind, they built then sacrificed futures once the window opened up, and instead of sacrificing  future to fill holes quicker thus maintaining holes. 

I agree with those adds, where you draw the line is tough.  When I think back to the Flame’s SC, the team was totally stacked, with 6-8 Stars, at least, but no superstars.  They were an offensive juggernaut, had strong D and excellent goaltending.  It took them a whole decade to get there, adding 1-2 players every year, about half traded and the rest drafted.  Unless we win a lottery that’s probably going to be the same here.  Hopefully only 2-3 years till we become semi-competitive again, though with Bettman points it could be next year which would be unfortunate on several levels.

[Thebrewcrew]

Haven't got to see  ton of the u18 yet.

 

Haven't minded Adam Jecho though. The VAN pick might be a tough early for me, but could be worth a look at 41.

 

Liked Charlie Elick as well. Good skater, big. RHS. He's someone that I think will see a pretty big jump in production next year. 

[conundrumed]

11 hours ago, cberg said:

Waiting several years is a challenge, but should be the normal expectation.  

The Wings have some really great prospects. The wait is painful.

Only Seider and Raymond barged right in within 2 years.

Anticipation kinda sucks.

Danielson looked fantastic in camp last year. Piques the enthusiasm. Then in 2 yrs, it'll be, "Satoshi Nakamoto, I forgot we had him". lol

[cberg]

Just watched a mock draft via Gravitah..

 

Anaheim wins 1OA, Buffalo 2OA, Flames drop to 10OA.  Montreal picks Tij, Flames draft Ivan Demidov.  It’s going to be wild… 

[Thebrewcrew]

Tij has helped his draft stock. I don’t think he will be there at 9. Likely best case scenario for the Flames

 

4 hours ago, cberg said:

Just watched a mock draft via Gravitah..

 

Anaheim wins 1OA, Buffalo 2OA, Flames drop to 10OA.  Montreal picks Tij, Flames draft Ivan Demidov.  It’s going to be wild… 

That’s kinda crazy. It’s widely believed Demidov goes 2nd or 3rd. Comparisons to Kucherov and Kaprizov. 

[conundrumed]

1 hour ago, Thebrewcrew said:

Tij has helped his draft stock. I don’t think he will be there at 9. Likely best case scenario for the Flames

It's McKenna setting everyone up and driving play. Tij's been okay. I wouldn't say great. Ritchie's been really good. Aitcheson has looked pretty solid. Martone is a giant pita. lol Ex-Sting, traded last year for their big disappointing run.

[cberg]

1 hour ago, Thebrewcrew said:

Tij has helped his draft stock. I don’t think he will be there at 9. Likely best case scenario for the Flames

 

That’s kinda crazy. It’s widely believed Demidov goes 2nd or 3rd. Comparisons to Kucherov and Kaprizov. 

Yeah I agree, but it went Celebrini, Levshunov, Lidstrom… perhaps really fortunate for the Flames, there is no consensus on anyone past Celebrini and there is high likelihood Calgary will have the option of a player who has dropped from “BPA” at their pick.  The only way the Flames are in a “must pick THIS guy” scenario is if they win the lottery and get 1OA pick.  

[Thebrewcrew]

1 hour ago, conundrumed said:

It's McKenna setting everyone up and driving play. Tij's been okay. I wouldn't say great. Ritchie's been really good. Aitcheson has looked pretty solid. Martone is a giant pita. lol Ex-Sting, traded last year for their big disappointing run.

For sure.

 

Bigger picture though, I think a team will look at the production and bloodlines and pick him before CGY picks. I'm thinking Montreal or Ottawa. You've got Staios in OTT and St. Louis with MTL, both guys know Jarome. 

Anyway I hope it happens. I hope he's gone before the Flames pick. It's a gong show if not.

[Thebrewcrew]

1 hour ago, cberg said:

Yeah I agree, but it went Celebrini, Levshunov, Lidstrom… perhaps really fortunate for the Flames, there is no consensus on anyone past Celebrini and there is high likelihood Calgary will have the option of a player who has dropped from “BPA” at their pick.  The only way the Flames are in a “must pick THIS guy” scenario is if they win the lottery and get 1OA pick.  

That is fair.

 

Most people seem to have Celebrini and Demidov head and shoulders above the rest of the class. 

 

Most years it's lip service, but there is a legitimate chance that the player the Flames take 9th is the same player they would have considered if they were picking 3rd. Anywhere from 3-12 could be interchangeable in this draft. Not many drafts are like that. Often times you can pencil in the top 4 or 5 picks a month or so before the draft.

[cberg]

18 minutes ago, Thebrewcrew said:

That is fair.

 

Most people seem to have Celebrini and Demidov head and shoulders above the rest of the class. 

 

Most years it's lip service, but there is a legitimate chance that the player the Flames take 9th is the same player they would have considered if they were picking 3rd. Anywhere from 3-12 could be interchangeable in this draft. Not many drafts are like that. Often times you can pencil in the top 4 or 5 picks a month or so before the draft.

Yes, the "comparables"(potentially) for some of these kids is crazy... Leshunov-Hedman, Catton-Sakic, Buium-Makar, Iginla-Iginla, Silayev-Chara, Demidov-Kucherov and on it goes.  We shall see, but if a team does have this perspective it is easy to see why the picks may be all over the place.  

[Sarasti]

2 hours ago, cberg said:

Yes, the "comparables"(potentially) for some of these kids is crazy... Leshunov-Hedman, Catton-Sakic, Buium-Makar, Iginla-Iginla, Silayev-Chara, Demidov-Kucherov and on it goes.  We shall see, but if a team does have this perspective it is easy to see why the picks may be all over the place.  

 

I take draft comparables with a grain of salt.

Hell, Yakupov was compared to Pavel Bure back in 2012 and we all know how that turned out.

[Thebrewcrew]

20 minutes ago, Sarasti said:

 

I take draft comparables with a grain of salt.

Hell, Yakupov was compared to Pavel Bure back in 2012 and we all know how that turned out.

I think there is a bit of a misconception with player comparisons.

 

Craig Button compares Celebrini to Jonathan Toews. Awfully high expectaions. But to be clear, most scouts aren't comparing 17 and 18yr olds to peak Jonathan Toews. It's a comparison apples to apples, Celebrini to Toews at the same age.

[cberg]

2 hours ago, Sarasti said:

 

I take draft comparables with a grain of salt.

Hell, Yakupov was compared to Pavel Bure back in 2012 and we all know how that turned out.

Don’t disagree it is not an equal comparison, and lots of prospects don’t work out. However, nobody knows that before a draft and scouts/teams just have the comparable to consider as a prospect's max upside.  Certainly could be a significant factor in the draft evaluation.  

[jjgallow]

8 hours ago, Sarasti said:

 

I take draft comparables with a grain of salt.

Hell, Yakupov was compared to Pavel Bure back in 2012 and we all know how that turned out.

 

I couldn't stand Yakupov.  But that aside, I do believe he was an extremely talented player.   Injuries have historically played a major role in "bust" players.   Most specifically concussions, but also knees.  Yakupov had both.

 

By rights, he is a classic example of rushing a player into the NHL ASAP.  He was quite good his first year but a 5'10 18 year old being put into the situations he was?   And brought back on the ice as quickly as he was after injuries?   He was clearly never the same after that.  It was a very Oilers thing to do. 

 

The next 5'10 Russian sensation, Michkov, will most likely fair much differently.  If he ever makes it over sigh.   He's been given time to develop that he otherwise may not have, and develop he has, injury-free as his frame fills in and his smarts mature.

 

In a redraft that year, I would take him #1 or #2 overall, with consideration to Forsberg.  Forsberg, btw, who was 6'1 and afforded 2 years of development first.

[conundrumed]

Just read a mock-up with Levshunov going 4th, then the D run starts at 6th and ends at 9th with us taking Dickinson. That would be fantastic. Tij goes to NJ next at 10th...

Outside of Levshunov, I have little doubt Dickinson will become the 2nd best D in this class. He's been the best CDN dman in his age group for a couple of years now. They honestly should have taken him to the WJC this year.

Another year in London, then if he has reached physical maturity, he could foreseeably make the Flames/be a call-up as a 20yo.

 

edit

Also thinking that maybe the Flames should be attempting to use 2 of their first 3 picks at D.

I really don't want to hear, "high risk, high reward in their first 5 picks". That saying is so askew. More accurately: "High Risk, No Reward". Letourneau and Parascak come to mind. I just don't get the reasoning. If you have so many deficiencies in your game or competition level is so low, that is a lot more than "high risk". There is a point where a moderate risk (Eiserman, Hemming) increases to "impossible odds".

So if we take a C not named Celebrini or Helenius, I really hope that it's Beaudoin or O'Reilly. Both are solid all-around players with upside. Not, "boy, if this guy puts it all together". They generally don't. Having to play the right way will usually negate what made you enticing. We've had prospects like that. They get angry and stamp their feet, if I recall correctly.

[cberg]

1 hour ago, conundrumed said:

Just read a mock-up with Levshunov going 4th, then the D run starts at 6th and ends at 9th with us taking Dickinson. That would be fantastic. Tij goes to NJ next at 10th...

Outside of Levshunov, I have little doubt Dickinson will become the 2nd best D in this class. He's been the best CDN dman in his age group for a couple of years now. They honestly should have taken him to the WJC this year.

Another year in London, then if he has reached physical maturity, he could foreseeably make the Flames/be a call-up as a 20yo.

That would be a tough one, with Tij still on the board.  I’d have to keep telling myself “D wins championships”.  
 

So, btw, you claim he’s the best Canadian D but why did he not make the WJC this year, and who beat him out?