2024 NHL draft - A New Hope

[conundrumed]

37 minutes ago, cberg said:

That would be a tough one, with Tij still on the board.  I’d have to keep telling myself “D wins championships”.  
 

So, btw, you claim he’s the best Canadian D but why did he not make the WJC this year, and who beat him out?

I think that it is more that they like to give the older players the seat, knowing the younger ones will have more opportunities. I would say the US also operates this way. Only a Bedard changes that.

[conundrumed]

6 minutes ago, conundrumed said:

I think that it is more that they like to give the older players the seat, knowing the younger ones will have more opportunities. I would say the US also operates this way. Only a Bedard changes that.

Should also add that I'm watching a lot of Dickinson and O'Reilly. The Knights are up 2-0 in the Conference Final.

Oliver Bonk QBs London's PP. Next year, Dickinson will. Just more graduating stuff. Dickinson and O'Reilly will likely explode next year as the other guys graduate. The other guys are mainly 1st and 2nd rders, so the Hunter's run a pretty tight grad process. Rarely a year the Knights aren't solid. It's annoying. lol

Dickinson pretty much never makes D-mistakes. Always in position and head on a swivel. The comp he's drawing is Pietrangelo. O'Reilly's pulling jacknife duty at C, occasionally RW. PK C, 2nd PP unit. Bouncing between lines 2 and 3. Plays hard every shift. I'd put Beaudoin ahead of him currently. But if that's the type of C you want in your system from rd 2 or 3, I'd say you can't go wrong with either as a mid C with a chance of untapped potential.

I really like that both already understand the 200' game really well. For me, that can be the hardest one to teach: create offence from defence. The best teams are doing exactly that. The downfall of the Leafs imho.

[The_People1]

2 hours ago, conundrumed said:

Just read a mock-up with Levshunov going 4th, then the D run starts at 6th and ends at 9th with us taking Dickinson. That would be fantastic. Tij goes to NJ next at 10th...

 

I feel it's either Dickinson or Silayev that remains at #9.

 

Levshunov should go top 4.  If not ANA, then CBJ.

 

MTL already drafted D in the past few drafts.  Probably goes for the best F available.  I hope it's Tij.

 

After that, OTT or ARZ will take Parekh because RHS.  The other will take Buium because he's arguably as good as Levshunov all around.  SEA wants D as well and has a choice between Dickinson and Silayev.  

[jjgallow]

@conundrumed  I got an idea for some of your 30 6th rounder picks this year, since you were desperately looking for scouts there.

 

My inspiration was your love of recruiting sons of former Flames, like Tij.

 

https://www.eliteprospects.com/player/599383/lucas-st-louis

 

For serious though, who is the Gold Standard in undrafted late-bloomers?  And the gold standard in exceptions to the size rule?

 

Now look at what the kids are doing and their trajectory.   Most notably Lucas.   Mason too early to tell.   I won't pretend that they are their Dad.   They aren't, this isn't a Tij story.   But, interestingly, I came across Lucas quite by accident, looking for undrafted statistical anomalies in the USHL.   The exact same kind of screen that would have picked up their Dad.  Lucas was at the top of it. 

 

 

 

[The_People1]

3 hours ago, conundrumed said:

edit

Also thinking that maybe the Flames should be attempting to use 2 of their first 3 picks at D.

 

Agreed.  I know the Flames have traded for some D prospects and Brzy Looks good but we could use more RHS RD in the system.  Henry Mews and Charlie Elick could be available with the Canuck's 1st.

[conundrumed]

2 hours ago, The_People1 said:

 

Agreed.  I know the Flames have traded for some D prospects and Brzy Looks good but we could use more RHS RD in the system.  Henry Mews and Charlie Elick could be available with the Canuck's 1st.

I kind of wonder how far Pulkkinen can fall as an overager. If you take a dman first, I might be inclined to take Misa with the Van pick. Or Beaudoin if there's enough noise there. I have little doubt we'll be in on Michael Misa next year. Maybe buy the set. lol

At our 2nd rder @ 41, there are going to still be some pretty promising dmen.

It would be near impossible to not consider Wallenius, Freij or Mews at mid-to-late 20's though. That's going to be a really difficult pick to decide on. BPA is good and well, but there are 6 positions on the ice. So a best C and a best D are not the same category. So it's kind of a cop-out.

I think you pretty much have to have some form of projection for next year also. Like, what strengths do this year's draft have vs 2025 and vice versa.

Let's face it, we need everything, so it won't get solved in one draft.

All I know is, it's just nice to have these conversations, because we haven't traded our picks away. Such a breath of fresh air.

[cberg]

4 hours ago, conundrumed said:

Should also add that I'm watching a lot of Dickinson and O'Reilly. The Knights are up 2-0 in the Conference Final.

Oliver Bonk QBs London's PP. Next year, Dickinson will. Just more graduating stuff. Dickinson and O'Reilly will likely explode next year as the other guys graduate. The other guys are mainly 1st and 2nd rders, so the Hunter's run a pretty tight grad process. Rarely a year the Knights aren't solid. It's annoying. lol

Dickinson pretty much never makes D-mistakes. Always in position and head on a swivel. The comp he's drawing is Pietrangelo. O'Reilly's pulling jacknife duty at C, occasionally RW. PK C, 2nd PP unit. Bouncing between lines 2 and 3. Plays hard every shift. I'd put Beaudoin ahead of him currently. But if that's the type of C you want in your system from rd 2 or 3, I'd say you can't go wrong with either as a mid C with a chance of untapped potential.

I really like that both already understand the 200' game really well. For me, that can be the hardest one to teach: create offence from defence. The best teams are doing exactly that. The downfall of the Leafs imho.

I appreciate your perspective especially since you are watching them actively.  In my limited viewing and readings, it seems to me there are better puck handling D, and ones with a higher vision/IQ.  Contrasting that Dickinson may be the most rounded.  Thoughts?

[conundrumed]

56 minutes ago, cberg said:

I appreciate your perspective especially since you are watching them actively.  In my limited viewing and readings, it seems to me there are better puck handling D, and ones with a higher vision/IQ.  Contrasting that Dickinson may be the most rounded.  Thoughts?

I doubt Dickinson is really behind anyone in that regard. Bear in mind, London wants Bonk to be their offensive d-man catalyst, which is fine and the right call. He's D+1 and a 1st rd pick. Dickinson plays the all-roles D-first guy. Bonk will graduate next year, Dickinson will be their 1D. His numbers will go way up offensively. He's a pretty finished product. The skating is exceptional. All 4 directions. The D play is top shelf, he rarely gets caught out of position.

It seems people complain about his offence. They shouldn't. He's just doing as he's told. If they're down a goal and 'ol Dale cuts him loose, he's a very big problem. He could maybe work on his shot some, but he's still maturing physically. Kind of like, "well sure, every kid needs to". The mental and IQ part, he is a significant player.

Dale will put him into PP QB next year, expect more O. I say, look out. This guy is near the perfect package of D play, skating, puck-moving and creativity.

He's drawing Pietrangelo comps for good reason. He's really solid at everything.

[The_People1]

23 minutes ago, conundrumed said:

I doubt Dickinson is really behind anyone in that regard. Bear in mind, London wants Bonk to be their offensive d-man catalyst, which is fine and the right call. He's D+1 and a 1st rd pick. Dickinson plays the all-roles D-first guy. Bonk will graduate next year, Dickinson will be their 1D. His numbers will go way up offensively. He's a pretty finished product. The skating is exceptional. All 4 directions. The D play is top shelf, he rarely gets caught out of position.

It seems people complain about his offence. They shouldn't. He's just doing as he's told. If they're down a goal and 'ol Dale cuts him loose, he's a very big problem. He could maybe work on his shot some, but he's still maturing physically. Kind of like, "well sure, every kid needs to". The mental and IQ part, he is a significant player.

Dale will put him into PP QB next year, expect more O. I say, look out. This guy is near the perfect package of D play, skating, puck-moving and creativity.

He's drawing Pietrangelo comps for good reason. He's really solid at everything.

 

Would you rather take Dickinson or Buium?

[conundrumed]

21 minutes ago, The_People1 said:

 

Would you rather take Dickinson or Buium?

And there it is. lol

So hard to distinguish between leagues. The NCAA was always kinda, yeah, whatever, but now it's going through amazing growth.

I'd likely stick with Dickinson, simply due to where he is and how much hockey he's playing, but I have zero against Buium. I assume both are still growing physically also, so that's a wash.

Dickinson is just so refined defensively, and I expect his O game to march forward, pretty much like an afterthought.

Buium is slick, fast and always a step ahead. Dickinson is more nuts and bolts, he could play that way, I assume.

Buium came from very specific "role" upbringings with the programs (Shattuck/USNTDP) he's been in, Dickinson has been more rounded out to do a bit of everything, regardless of situation.

Honestly, it's pretty much a saw off. So I'll err on the side of the Dman with better D mechanics that I'm certain will D vs the other team's best without being overwhelmed.

[The_People1]

4 hours ago, conundrumed said:

And there it is. lol

So hard to distinguish between leagues. The NCAA was always kinda, yeah, whatever, but now it's going through amazing growth.

I'd likely stick with Dickinson, simply due to where he is and how much hockey he's playing, but I have zero against Buium. I assume both are still growing physically also, so that's a wash.

Dickinson is just so refined defensively, and I expect his O game to march forward, pretty much like an afterthought.

Buium is slick, fast and always a step ahead. Dickinson is more nuts and bolts, he could play that way, I assume.

Buium came from very specific "role" upbringings with the programs (Shattuck/USNTDP) he's been in, Dickinson has been more rounded out to do a bit of everything, regardless of situation.

Honestly, it's pretty much a saw off. So I'll err on the side of the Dman with better D mechanics that I'm certain will D vs the other team's best without being overwhelmed.

 

Ya different leagues.  And then factor in Silayev.  Already playing against men in the KHL and setting records as a 17 year old.  How to compare to Juniors and US College?

 

Silayev skates well for a big guy and willing to jump on the offense... Just doesn't convert as often in a tougher league and get cast off as "not as offensive Dman".  But seems like Silayev is offensive when the opportunity is there.

 

Parekh for sures gone by Utah or OTT pick.  It will come down to Buium, Dickinson, and Silayev.  It should be fun.

[Thebrewcrew]

Dickinson's playing style reminds me of Heiskanen. Really smooth, well-rounded, responsible. There's probably more meat on the bone offensively.  But a really complete player.

 

Buium plays a similar game to Hughes. Really creative, dynamic and shifty. He projects to be an offensive catalyst, running a powerplay. 

 

It really comes down to preference IMO. I think either would be a good pick for the Flames.

[The_People1]

6 minutes ago, Thebrewcrew said:

Dickinson's playing style reminds me of Heiskanen. Really smooth, well-rounded, responsible. There's probably more meat on the bone offensively.  But a really complete player.

 

Buium plays a similar game to Hughes. Really creative, dynamic and shifty. He projects to be an offensive catalyst, running a powerplay. 

 

It really comes down to preference IMO. I think either would be a good pick for the Flames.

 

How about Silayev?  How to rank these 3?  Buium, Dickinson, and Silayev.

[conundrumed]

1 hour ago, The_People1 said:

 

How about Silayev?  How to rank these 3?  Buium, Dickinson, and Silayev.

Herein lies the problem. I've watched a lot of Dickinson, quite a bit of Buium, Levshunov and Parekh. I've watched about half a game that Silayev played in. Just haven't seen enough of him to offer anything tangible. I watched more of the K last year, but the early morn starts just didn't work for me this year.

Would Silayev come over and been as clearly dominant as Levshunov? I just don't know. Maybe he's the 2nd D taken? They have eyes over there and undoubtedly access to endless film.

We get all the high-end snippets that percolate all the positives.

We're going to find out, for sure.

Saginaw took it to London tonight, 6-2 to make the series 2-1 London. Saginaw hosts the Memorial Cup this year. Both teams are loaded. Parekh with 2 assists tonight, primary and secondary. Could be a great series. Lots of prospects and draft eligibles.

[Thebrewcrew]

With Silayev, I think of Owen Power. Like a condor back there. Big, rangy. Very much still growing into their frame. 
 

It’s hard to watch Russian prospects, but he’s had a very impressive year. I think he’s long gone before the Flames are on the clock. The only downside I see with Silayev is he’s in Russia for another two years minimum. The club that drafts him gets no say in his development like they can with a CHL player. Not the end of the world though, if he’s good enough (he is), he will get a bigger role in the K in the next two years.
 

[cberg]

2 hours ago, The_People1 said:

 

How about Silayev?  How to rank these 3?  Buium, Dickinson, and Silayev.

Don’t really know, but trade valuations giving him a comparable of Chara.

 

Actually, I’m laughing.  This is supposed to be a so-so draft but here we are arguing between the top12-15 as if they may all be hall of famers.  Not likely, maybe 3-4?

[conundrumed]

2 hours ago, Thebrewcrew said:

Buium plays a similar game to Hughes.

While true, I think it gets a bit over-emphasized. Quinn Hughes has the best skating in the world. He probably laughs at Jack, who is an elite skater. So that comparison is a bit much to live up to.

So while Buium is a great skater and can create time and space due to his skating and IQ/vision, he's still a world away from Hughes. He's closer to Luke than he is Quinn, and I think Luke is a great player. Quinn's unreal skating puts him in the rarified air of Makar-level dman. Extremely rare.

I think only Levshunov has a chance to be a top 5 dman in the world in this class. Dude is a specimen, near all muscle. Not to say 6th to 20th best in time is anything to scoff at.

[conundrumed]

21 minutes ago, cberg said:

Don’t really know, but trade valuations giving him a comparable of Chara.

 

Actually, I’m laughing.  This is supposed to be a so-so draft but here we are arguing between the top12-15 as if they may all be hall of famers.  Not likely, maybe 3-4?

It's what we do. lol

Hard to not be over-excitable when we have picks for a change! And we're trending towards actually utilizing draft picks as more than trade fodder. What a concept!!

[jjgallow]

4 hours ago, conundrumed said:

It's what we do. lol

Hard to not be over-excitable when we have picks for a change! And we're trending towards actually utilizing draft picks as more than trade fodder. What a concept!!

 

It's actually a very exciting time.   We are for sure a bit over-excited in what by all accounts is not a very strong draft, but we have every reason to be over-excited, and all it really means is that we have to "get it right".   Even weak drafts have the same winners if you do the homework.

 

A lot of people felt like "making the playoffs" was the standard where we could sleep at night.   And we'd trade so many picks to make that happen each year.  I never felt any pride in this, it felt like buying an old Corvette at a shady used car dealer using a lien on their parents house.

 

I seen this debate on here many times over many years, but for me, pride is when we are meaningfully contributing to the future of hockey at and elite and at a community level.   Come the 2024 draft, we will be front and centre and not just in the top 10.   If we "get it right", and we let those kids develop properly, it sends us on a whole different path that I can sleep at night with and feel the City is more deserving of.

 

There was always some fear on here that if the Flames didn't make the playoffs all the fans would disappear.   On the contrary, I have some strong feels that this next phase will bring back a lot of people who maybe weren't the loudest but know when they see something worth their free time.

[conundrumed]

20 hours ago, jjgallow said:

@conundrumed  I got an idea for some of your 30 6th rounder picks this year, since you were desperately looking for scouts there.

 

My inspiration was your love of recruiting sons of former Flames, like Tij.

 

https://www.eliteprospects.com/player/599383/lucas-st-louis

 

For serious though, who is the Gold Standard in undrafted late-bloomers?  And the gold standard in exceptions to the size rule?

 

Now look at what the kids are doing and their trajectory.   Most notably Lucas.   Mason too early to tell.   I won't pretend that they are their Dad.   They aren't, this isn't a Tij story.   But, interestingly, I came across Lucas quite by accident, looking for undrafted statistical anomalies in the USHL.   The exact same kind of screen that would have picked up their Dad.  Lucas was at the top of it. 

 

 

 

Way more interested in Wings kids. lol

Especially when they're the youngest in the draft, not the oldest:

https://www.eliteprospects.com/player/692910/lukas-fischer

[conundrumed]

A nice camera pan to Conny and Iggy at the Swiss vs Sweden u18 game. They pointed out how fitting it is that Iggy's sitting on Conroy's right. lol

I wonder if Tanguay is sitting on Yzerman's left?

[jjgallow]

45 minutes ago, conundrumed said:

Way more interested in Wings kids. lol

Especially when they're the youngest in the draft, not the oldest:

https://www.eliteprospects.com/player/692910/lukas-fischer

 

you are super optimistic on 6th round availability yo 😅

 

I take him in the 6th round for sure.   But, for where they're ranked,

 

This guy, and Dickinson come across as guys who have matured early (even if they're young).   6'3 - 6'4, built, basically men, looking good against children, but still can't...score.

 

Defensive instincts are super important, but can be taught.   I'm on the same page with you regarding the importance of D, but seen a lot of 1st and 2nd round mis-fires drafting guys who can't quite put it together offensively against kids despite massive physical and maturity advantages.    Seider upside yes.  But not guaranteed and nothing higher.  High likelihood of making the NHL but low likelihood of becoming impact players.

 

In that range, these kids look way more skilled with higher ceilings even if maturity-wise they're further behind.  And they're not even in the amjhl lol.
https://www.eliteprospects.com/player/618996/alfons-freij
https://www.eliteprospects.com/player/577193/henry-mews

 

I'll straight up ask....is it possible to watch certain leagues/teams too much?  And start to rate some kids higher there as you do?   I think/hope Conroy would say yes, if he looked back on some picks from 2023.

[conundrumed]

51 minutes ago, jjgallow said:

 

you are super optimistic on 6th round availability yo 😅

 

I take him in the 6th round for sure.   But, for where they're ranked,

 

This guy, and Dickinson come across as guys who have matured early (even if they're young).   6'3 - 6'4, built, basically men, looking good against children, but still can't...score.

 

Defensive instincts are super important, but can be taught.   I'm on the same page with you regarding the importance of D, but seen a lot of 1st and 2nd round mis-fires drafting guys who can't quite put it together offensively against kids despite massive physical and maturity advantages.    Seider upside yes.  But not guaranteed and nothing higher.  High likelihood of making the NHL but low likelihood of becoming impact players.

 

In that range, these kids look way more skilled with higher ceilings even if maturity-wise they're further behind.  And they're not even in the amjhl lol.
https://www.eliteprospects.com/player/618996/alfons-freij
https://www.eliteprospects.com/player/577193/henry-mews

 

I'll straight up ask....is it possible to watch certain leagues/teams too much?  And start to rate some kids higher there as you do?   I think/hope Conroy would say yes, if he looked back on some picks from 2023.

Lousy team, he's still the shortest in his fam by a few inches. Freij and Mews are both borderline 1st rders, Fischer will be in the late 2nd - early 3rd, so not the same range. Dallas pick to our 3rd. Someone will be getting great potential with Fischer. Too funny if it's Detroit. "Sorry son, you were next on our list, honestly".

[conundrumed]

@The_People1

Am I going to regret telling you to check the OHL playoff scoring leaders?

That guy sure isn't hurting Sennecke's draft-stock, either.

I'm OHL-centric due to live viewing, so I was championing Musty, then this guy...

I still like the Honzek pick. There just really isn't much that separates 15-50 in most drafts, let alone 15-30.

I highly recommend watching the OHL semis and Finals, alongside the same from the dub.

Stoopid dub start times. But what, am I supposed to watch the Oilers/Van? I don't gaf about those teams. lol

[The_People1]

11 hours ago, Thebrewcrew said:

I think he’s long gone before the Flames are on the clock. 

 

It depends on MTL.  Most of us think they will go with a F because they have a ton of D prospects already.  But if they decide to go with D, then we could see 4 straight D gone before the Flames turn at 9.  Flames will be looking at Catton, Iginla, Eiserman, etc.  or reach for Yakemchuk/Jiricek.

 

If MTL takes a F, then I think there's reason to believe Parekh, Buium and Dickinson go before Silayev.