Chance to make playoffs? Draft lottery?

[travel_dude]

31 minutes ago, robrob74 said:

4-0 now. 
 

must win tonight.

 

 

 

EVery game is a must win from here on in.

We can't depend on WPG and NAS to lose out.

[robrob74]

Looks like Nashville might be out of the race with their loss tonight. 
 

5 points out with a game in hand. Possibly 3 but they'd still be 1 point behind the Flames. They'd have to leapfrog two teams and it is just that much harder of a task...

[The_People1]

Flames

vs CHI

at WPG

at VAN

vs NSH

vs SJS

 

Jets

vs CGY

vs NSH

vs SJS

at MIN

at COL

 

Looking at the schedule, I think the Flames can realistically go 4-1 to end the season and hit 95-points.  Unfortunately, the loss might come against WPG because it's the second game of a back to back.  WPG can realistically go 3-2 and hit 95-points.  Only MIN and COL are playoff level teams who can beat WPG.  In Flames fashion, that would be the most heartbreaking way to go.  Tied with WPG with 95-points but miss the playoffs due to the tie-breaker rule.

 

And so that's my prediction.  That's how the Flames season comes to an end.  Like many others have predicted, the Flames play great to end the season to give them false hope for next season.  And simply ran out of run way to make the playoffs this time around.

[conundrumed]

The Hawks come in sporting an 8 game losing streak. What could possibly go wrong?

IF he's kept up in practice, I wouldn't be against Coronato drawing in.

Sutter himself said guys were having trouble getting moving last game, so...

Zero chance, same old meat grinder lineup.

[travel_dude]

9 hours ago, robrob74 said:

Looks like Nashville might be out of the race with their loss tonight. 
 

5 points out with a game in hand. Possibly 3 but they'd still be 1 point behind the Flames. They'd have to leapfrog two teams and it is just that much harder of a task...

 

Three back of us and they play WPG too.  They do have one game in hand.  

They get a win in that extra game and beat us, suddenly they are past us.

The harder task for them is they play 3 Central teams and 2 Pacific + CAR.

We play a lot 2 Pacific and 3 central teams.

 

I doubt that NAS was expecting to be in it this long.

WPG seems to have figured out some of the issues.

Schefele moved to the wing.

 

A win against CHI and WPG and suddenly we are much more likely to make it.

Two losses and it's pretty much out of reach.

[robrob74]

10 minutes ago, travel_dude said:

 

Three back of us and they play WPG too.  They do have one game in hand.  

They get a win in that extra game and beat us, suddenly they are past us.

The harder task for them is they play 3 Central teams and 2 Pacific + CAR.

We play a lot 2 Pacific and 3 central teams.

 

I doubt that NAS was expecting to be in it this long.

WPG seems to have figured out some of the issues.

Schefele moved to the wing.

 

A win against CHI and WPG and suddenly we are much more likely to make it.

Two losses and it's pretty much out of reach.

maybe even one loss and it is out of reach, as someone pointed out. Winnipeg only needs to go 3-2 in that scenario to be tied at 95 points.

[travel_dude]

13 minutes ago, robrob74 said:

maybe even one loss and it is out of reach, as someone pointed out. Winnipeg only needs to go 3-2 in that scenario to be tied at 95 points.

Might have been me. 

95 is the lowest I think we need.

WPG would need to go 2-2-1 for us to overtake them.

93 is possible to get in, but 2 of those points need to be against WPG.

And they need to go 1-3-1.  

 

I don't think I can stand a 1-1 against CHI and WPG.

Win both or lose both.

Crap or get off the pot.

[conundrumed]

https://community.fans.flames.nhl.com/topic/23660-2023-calgary-flames-nhl-draft/page/3/#comments

 

[travel_dude]

Think we are toast.

Then again, I have said that more than once in the past two weeks.  Still have a chance to hit 95 points, but now NAS is a single point back and an extra game; they can hit 96.  WPG can hit 99 or still lead even with a loss to us.  A loss to us and a loss to NAS, and they still are ahead of us.  

[robrob74]

We probably win tonight against the Jets in OT! Lol

[travel_dude]

1 hour ago, robrob74 said:

We probably win tonight against the Jets in OT! Lol

 

It's 50/50 at the best of times against them.  Our players know what we have behind them (Goalie).  They are going to give it what we expect, but it may not be enough.  Too much relies on perfection, since our goalies can't stop jack.  Helly may not be perfect, but most times you see his best.  I don't even know what Markstrom's best looks like now.  Minny game?  Well they actually scored on him and it didn't count.  

[travel_dude]

I really wish we had traded for Nemestnikov over Ritchie.  Sure it cost draft capital, but we may have been looking at playoffs over fighting WPG (and NAS) for last spot.  Perhaps a cheaper replacement for Backlundnext year.  Having the player going to UFA gives you a slightly better shot at re-signing him.  

 

9 points in 15 games.  Not bad replacement player.

[robrob74]

2 hours ago, travel_dude said:

I really wish we had traded for Nemestnikov over Ritchie.  Sure it cost draft capital, but we may have been looking at playoffs over fighting WPG (and NAS) for last spot.  Perhaps a cheaper replacement for Backlundnext year.  Having the player going to UFA gives you a slightly better shot at re-signing him.  

 

9 points in 15 games.  Not bad replacement player.

I kind of felt that way on deadline. I didnt want them to, but there were moves that were a little more than rentals. 

[Thebrewcrew]

The Flames need to win-out. Nothing is a given with this team so I have my doubts...

 

Winning out puts them at 95 points. WPG has four games left, NSH, SJ, MIN and COL. The Flames need two Jets losses, if they can win out. 

 

It's a long shot, but the Jets will be playing three hungry teams. Avs and Wild trying to win a division. NSH trying to make the playoffs in Poile's last season.

 

This thing is gonna come down to game 82. The Flames end their season a night before the Jets. Could be anxiously watching game 82 for WPG

 

[travel_dude]

17 minutes ago, Thebrewcrew said:

The Flames need to win-out. Nothing is a given with this team so I have my doubts...

 

Winning out puts them at 95 points. WPG has four games left, NSH, SJ, MIN and COL. The Flames need two Jets losses, if they can win out. 

 

It's a long shot, but the Jets will be playing three hungry teams. Avs and Wild trying to win a division. NSH trying to make the playoffs in Poile's last season.

 

This thing is gonna come down to game 82. The Flames end their season a night before the Jets. Could be anxiously watching game 82 for WPG

 

 

The VAN game is our Waterloo.

We don't get that and WPG only needs 4/8 points to win.

Doesn't really matter what we do with NAS.

[Thebrewcrew]

2 minutes ago, travel_dude said:

 

The VAN game is our Waterloo.

We don't get that and WPG only needs 4/8 points to win.

Doesn't really matter what we do with NAS.

I don't see Winnipeg winning three of four. They've been inconsistent.

 

The big issue is I don't see the Flames winning out either. Way this season has went, they'll win the next two and lose game 82 against SJ

[travel_dude]

So, NAS is starting to win again.  

88 points with 4 remaining games.

They are beating top teams.

Wins against BOS (in Boston), Vegas and CAR.

WPG and them could be a 3 point game.

The worst possible result for us.

Only one WC spot not decided yet.

 

Meanwhile, the other close teams in the East....

Pitts - 88 points with 3 left

NYI - 89 points with 3 left

FLA - 89 points with 3 left

BUF - 83 points with 5 left

 

The NAS game as our toughtest.

We struggle with their style and are yet to beat them.

VAN is going to be really tough, but we won there recently.

SJS could be anything.  If we need it to get in, they will embarass us.

[MP5029]

So the big question is…is it better to hope they make it or loose out? 
 

I see this team just missing out, probably the worst case situation for the team moving forward and now…

 

Im kinda wishing they had not started a mini win streak it just kinda dragged the expected out come of this season

[travel_dude]

6 hours ago, MP5029 said:

So the big question is…is it better to hope they make it or loose out? 
 

I see this team just missing out, probably the worst case situation for the team moving forward and now…

 

Im kinda wishing they had not started a mini win streak it just kinda dragged the expected out come of this season

 

I don't think it really matters.  In the last 20 we are 11-6-3, so it's not really a mini streak.  Why the team started to play now is beyond me.  Then again, Huberdeau moved back to LW and at the same time (after the birth of his child) MArkstrom started winning games.  Not playing lights out just winning.  You could say the schedule we had made a big difference.  Playing teams out of it, or teams in tough schedules to our easy one.  But you need only look at the best players playing the best.  Toffoli was killing it.  Huberdeau starting to look better.  Weegar getting comfortable.  Ras getting back into form after the accident.  

 

A month ago, we had the chance to fall into lotto territory.  Now we have killed that to the point of 4-6th overall as the best we can manage.  The team wants the playoffs.  I want to see a team that deserved to be in the playoffs get in, not just a last ditch effort to play 4 games and lose.  

 

Since 1st WC spot is out of the question for us, it comes down to who we would play in round 1.  VGK, EDM, LA, COL or DAL.  Only DAL would be a chance to move on.  I don't think we beat VGK in more than 2 games.  Same with EDM.  COL we would be lucky to win a game.  LA no idea, but they are a tough team to beat.  

 

So, a 16th overall or 17th overall (if we make the playoffs and lose).  Not a big difference.  A 16th with a chance to move up to 6th?  A lot better.  A loss to VAN on Saturday, just throw in the towel.  I know it's still possible to get in, but really.  

[flames-fan-in-jets-land]

10 minutes ago, travel_dude said:

 

I don't think it really matters.  In the last 20 we are 11-6-3, so it's not really a mini streak.  Why the team started to play now is beyond me.  Then again, Huberdeau moved back to LW and at the same time (after the birth of his child) MArkstrom started winning games.  Not playing lights out just winning.  You could say the schedule we had made a big difference.  Playing teams out of it, or teams in tough schedules to our easy one.  But you need only look at the best players playing the best.  Toffoli was killing it.  Huberdeau starting to look better.  Weegar getting comfortable.  Ras getting back into form after the accident.  

 

A month ago, we had the chance to fall into lotto territory.  Now we have killed that to the point of 4-6th overall as the best we can manage.  The team wants the playoffs.  I want to see a team that deserved to be in the playoffs get in, not just a last ditch effort to play 4 games and lose.  

 

Since 1st WC spot is out of the question for us, it comes down to who we would play in round 1.  VGK, EDM, LA, COL or DAL.  Only DAL would be a chance to move on.  I don't think we beat VGK in more than 2 games.  Same with EDM.  COL we would be lucky to win a game.  LA no idea, but they are a tough team to beat.  

 

So, a 16th overall or 17th overall (if we make the playoffs and lose).  Not a big difference.  A 16th with a chance to move up to 6th?  A lot better.  A loss to VAN on Saturday, just throw in the towel.  I know it's still possible to get in, but really.  

I think Vegas would be easier to beat right now than Dallas. Ottenger is still a difference maker where Quick hasnt looked the same lately and Thompson doesnt look 100% back from injury. Also have to acknowledge that historically Pavelski has been kryptonite to the Flames. LA is a coin toss and the Oil rely on outscoring their lackluster goaltending (which the Flames would have real trouble with). Rightfully the Avs should be scaring everyone.

[travel_dude]

53 minutes ago, flames-fan-in-jets-land said:

I think Vegas would be easier to beat right now than Dallas. Ottenger is still a difference maker where Quick hasnt looked the same lately and Thompson doesnt look 100% back from injury. Also have to acknowledge that historically Pavelski has been kryptonite to the Flames. LA is a coin toss and the Oil rely on outscoring their lackluster goaltending (which the Flames would have real trouble with). Rightfully the Avs should be scaring everyone.

 

I think it's all for not.  NAS or WPG is going to stay ahead of us.  Even if we beat VAN, I still see one of the two or both passing us.  A 3 point game between NAS and WPG.  A WPG OT win and both teams pass us in standings.  NAS still has 3 remaining.  A NAS OT win and both teams are ajead.  Even a win in regulation by either team puts us at best behind one of them.  

 

Dallas is the one team we have handled and have been able to make Otter look human.

Oils are on a winning streak and their backup is playing well enough to take a 1st round series.

We would be using Lucic on the road against McD or the other top line.

Vegas scares me.  We won one game in Vegas the entire time they have been in the League.

 

[The_People1]

15 hours ago, MP5029 said:

So the big question is…is it better to hope they make it or loose out? 
 

I see this team just missing out, probably the worst case situation for the team moving forward and now…

 

Im kinda wishing they had not started a mini win streak it just kinda dragged the expected out come of this season

 

I doubt we draft a franchise altering talent at 15th overall anyways so might as well cheer for making the playoffs.  Drafting 15-20, no difference this year.

[conundrumed]

7 hours ago, The_People1 said:

 

I doubt we draft a franchise altering talent at 15th overall anyways so might as well cheer for making the playoffs.  Drafting 15-20, no difference this year.

Yup. There was no decision one way or the next so this is the one to cheer for. At least there is something for a reason to watch, however fleeting.

I have no faith that they'll pull it of, but I'll play along. They need 3 perfect games in a row and they've left me with zero faith that they are capable of that. Let alone the enormous perfection of help they need overcoming the other 2 teams.

My realist kicked in long ago. I'm a fan, but I'm not deaf, dumb and blind.

TIL, it's the anniversary of the SNL "Cowbell" sketch.lol

"Don't Fear the Reaper" song would be our ideal song if they dropped the "Don't".

[jjgallow]

11 hours ago, The_People1 said:

 

I doubt we draft a franchise altering talent at 15th overall anyways so might as well cheer for making the playoffs.  Drafting 15-20, no difference this year.

 

I feel there is a pretty massive difference between 15 and 20 this year, as there has been on other deep drafts.

 

all the same, cheering against them isn't how I want that to get done.  I still hope they win every game.  

 

In the big, big picture (next 5-7 years), it's a blip.

 

This off-season though, that's another story.  No need to be a sweetheart then.

[travel_dude]

4 hours ago, conundrumed said:

Yup. There was no decision one way or the next so this is the one to cheer for. At least there is something for a reason to watch, however fleeting.

I have no faith that they'll pull it of, but I'll play along. They need 3 perfect games in a row and they've left me with zero faith that they are capable of that. Let alone the enormous perfection of help they need overcoming the other 2 teams.

My realist kicked in long ago. I'm a fan, but I'm not deaf, dumb and blind.

TIL, it's the anniversary of the SNL "Cowbell" sketch.lol

"Don't Fear the Reaper" song would be our ideal song if they dropped the "Don't".

 

It's perhaps fitting that the aniversary has come and gone.  I haven't felt motivated to use it much in 2023.  Whether we make it by having 3 wins and look really good or fade as we have all season, My hope is that we consider the season an utter failure and make the right decisions.  Take a realistic look at the old core and the coaching that used them.  Look at the use of prospects.  Look at contracts that are coming up.  I have seen nothing to suggest that we have figured it all out.  This is not the cup winner STL finding its stride.

 

If we get in, I will cheer for the team.  I would rather face the Oilers in the first round and do what we do well; put a few of the players out of the game.  At least playing them, we aren't getting fooled into thinking we are a cup contender.  And we help expose the weaknesses they have to other teams.