Chance to make playoffs? Draft lottery?

[travel_dude]

18 minutes ago, flames-fan-in-jets-land said:

No matter what any Leaf fan says Matthews is not generational. The league needed to keep hopes up in the GTA as he would have been wasted going to Arizona. Much more lucrative to keep up the interests of Leaf Nation than try to gain more interest in the desert.  This time around theres other factors at stake.

 

Okay, so swap Draisaitl with Marner.

Leave out Draisaitl, and McDavid's numbers drop to high-normal.

Give Matthews a 2nd C, and maybe he gets those crazy numbers.

 

I do think that Matthews in ARI changes everything.

They got Strome.

At that time, they could have gone a different direction.

Strome was a dud. 

[robrob74]

5 hours ago, flames-fan-in-jets-land said:

It doesnt matter. Yotes are getting first pick. The conspiracy theorist in me thinks these lotto draws are all pre planned. A generational talent in Arizona either guarantees new arena approval OR ups the franchise value for cities looking for a relocated team. 

 

/removes tinfoil hat.

I read an article that quoted Friedman and said that Bettman might actually growing tired of the Coyotes. Maybe it's all GM doing and they might address it as cap circumvention, what they're doing with IR contracts. 
 

I wish back in the beginning of the "retool" Calgary did that but not to that extent. To gain draft picks...

[robrob74]

2 hours ago, conundrumed said:

I cling to the 1%ish chance that we jump 9 or 10 spots in the draft.lol

If not, I hope we don't play the common consent game and just "reach" on Nate Danielson. He'll likely be ranked around 20th.

 

7 hours ago, travel_dude said:

 

As Cross points out, we have a chance.  The ruies get adjusted every once in awhile, but are stable for now.

Our chances of making the playoffs are still okay, just due to the math.

I don't think you can calculate the odds, since we have the Sutter factor and team losing interest.

A loss to ARI and players might feel time to fold up the tent.

They know how many wins they need.

2-1 over three games doesn't cut it.

Has to be 3-1 in 4.  Or better.

oh, I just wanted to know if it is possible to still jump as high as ten spots even if we just miss out and are in the 12-15 spots. 

[jjgallow]

6 minutes ago, robrob74 said:

 

oh, I just wanted to know if it is possible to still jump as high as ten spots even if we just miss out and are in the 12-15 spots. 

 

https://www.tankathon.com/nhl/mock_draft

 

I got these results after clicking exactly 10 times on SIM LOTTERY.

 

Conclusion:  We are 100% getting Michkov.

 

sweet

 

[travel_dude]

So your conclusion is we win the draft lotto, but are 14th before.

Talk about dumb bad luck.

The old days of the 3 lotto changes is long gone too.

 

What I don't get is how MTL ends up 1st when they are not close to last place now.

How did they move up 4?

I thought we had one winner.

[jjgallow]

4 hours ago, travel_dude said:

So your conclusion is we win the draft lotto, but are 14th before.

Talk about dumb bad luck.

The old days of the 3 lotto changes is long gone too.

 

What I don't get is how MTL ends up 1st when they are not close to last place now.

How did they move up 4?

I thought we had one winner.

 

I'm assuming the simulator includes random new arena deals which then automatically land that team in first place regardless of lottery rules.

[travel_dude]

12 minutes ago, jjgallow said:

 

I'm assuming the simulator includes random new arena deals which then automatically land that team in first place regardless of lottery rules.

 

It's weird.  Like if we win the lotto and end up 4th, there is automatically a redraw.

Because it's impossible for us to improve our position.

[tmac70]

The prediction is we miss the playoffs but miss the 10th spot by 1 point to move into the lottery situation. Its just the way our season has gone. 

[travel_dude]

41 minutes ago, tmac70 said:

The prediction is we miss the playoffs but miss the 10th spot by 1 point to move into the lottery situation. Its just the way our season has gone. 

 

We can be 11th and get 1st overall.

Heck, we can move up 10 regardless.

That's the kind of lotto win we would get.

[robrob74]

5 hours ago, travel_dude said:

 

We can be 11th and get 1st overall.

Heck, we can move up 10 regardless.

That's the kind of lotto win we would get.

it would be nice to actually win it, not necessarily 1st overall. Just that we have never moved up, I don't think.

[conundrumed]

13 hours ago, jjgallow said:

 

https://www.tankathon.com/nhl/mock_draft

 

I got these results after clicking exactly 10 times on SIM LOTTERY.

 

Conclusion:  We are 100% getting Michkov.

 

sweet

 

Bare in mind tankathon's rankings aren't great/are older. He's ranked 4th due to fear I think. So he may drop from there. How far who knows. But it will have nothing to do with hockey skills. He's the closest thing to Bedard imho.

[jjgallow]

21 minutes ago, conundrumed said:

Bare in mind tankathon's rankings aren't great/are older. He's ranked 4th due to fear I think. So he may drop from there. How far who knows. But it will have nothing to do with hockey skills. He's the closest thing to Bedard imho.

 

Yeah.   Almost a point per game in the KHL, and goal-heavy?   

 

There are no comparables.    If there are any imho it's Ovechkin / Federov.   An entire clear step above Tarasenko/Kucherov.  Not a bad floor.

 

Would be hilarious if he dropped, and yet not surprising.   People don't learn.

 

imho any team/scout who passes on either him or obviously Bedard, at any point, on any pick, should be fired on the spot.   But that's just me lol

[conundrumed]

13 minutes ago, jjgallow said:

 

Yeah.   Almost a point per game in the KHL, and goal-heavy?   

 

There are no comparables.    If there are any imho it's Ovechkin / Federov.   An entire clear step above Tarasenko/Kucherov.  Not a bad floor.

 

Would be hilarious if he dropped, and yet not surprising.   People don't learn.

 

imho any team/scout who passes on either him or obviously Bedard, at any point, on any pick, should be fired on the spot.   But that's just me lol

They'll look at his contract and forget that almost every prospect takes 3 years minimum. Developing in the K or SHL is better than the A.

[jjgallow]

1 hour ago, conundrumed said:

They'll look at his contract and forget that almost every prospect takes 3 years minimum. Developing in the K or SHL is better than the A.

 

Is it like Us College where the team could potentially lose him?   I guess that would be my only question.   the contract length itself is not an issue, it's not like he's going to set the world on fire in his first 2 years.   It's only one prime year lost.

[travel_dude]

24 minutes ago, jjgallow said:

 

Is it like Us College where the team could potentially lose him?   I guess that would be my only question.   the contract length itself is not an issue, it's not like he's going to set the world on fire in his first 2 years.   It's only one prime year lost.

 

I think that there's actually better protection that the NCAA players give us.

We own the rights in NA.

No other team can sign him.

If he never comes over, not much use though.

[conundrumed]

24 minutes ago, jjgallow said:

 

Is it like Us College where the team could potentially lose him?   I guess that would be my only question.   the contract length itself is not an issue, it's not like he's going to set the world on fire in his first 2 years.   It's only one prime year lost.

No. Russia and the NHL don't have a transfer agreement so they hold the rights indefinitely.

[conundrumed]

5 minutes ago, travel_dude said:

 

I think that there's actually better protection that the NCAA players give us.

We own the rights in NA.

No other team can sign him.

If he never comes over, not much use though.

There are really no examples of star Russians not coming to play in the NHL.

Especially now when all of their heroes have done it.

[jjgallow]

8 minutes ago, travel_dude said:

 

I think that there's actually better protection that the NCAA players give us.

We own the rights in NA.

No other team can sign him.

If he never comes over, not much use though.

 

Cool.   then imho less risk than drafting a US College player.

 

He signed during covid, and before Ukraine.  I can see how it might have seemed like risk management at the time.   Don't think you'd see him signing that now.

 

Would be cool to see him drop to the Flames. unless of course, yeah...they pass on him too and then I go completely nuts.

 

I don't see it happening.   But maybe if they got lucky in the lotto and a few teams above them got silly...

[travel_dude]

21 minutes ago, conundrumed said:

There are really no examples of star Russians not coming to play in the NHL.

Especially now when all of their heroes have done it.

 

Well, there is that famous D-man drafted by the flames Rushan Rafikov.

KHL since 2015.

Not a household name, but better than some of the crap we have had dress in the Flaming C.

[Heartbreaker]

6 hours ago, robrob74 said:

it would be nice to actually win it, not necessarily 1st overall. Just that we have never moved up, I don't think.

 

Could we move up, and then trade down for more assets?

 

Love.

[conundrumed]

4 minutes ago, Heartbreaker said:

 

Could we move up, and then trade down for more assets?

 

Love.

Might not be a bad plan actually. A better plan would have been Nashville's. Gather up picks for players. That seems to have sent a message to their team just fine.

"The red-hot team is 7-2-1 in their last 10 games, as the injection of youth following the trade deadline has made the playoffs possible".

Imagine that...

[robrob74]

1 hour ago, conundrumed said:

Might not be a bad plan actually. A better plan would have been Nashville's. Gather up picks for players. That seems to have sent a message to their team just fine.

"The red-hot team is 7-2-1 in their last 10 games, as the injection of youth following the trade deadline has made the playoffs possible".

Imagine that...

I think a lot of narratives us fans can cling to might not be as heavy on teams morale as we claim them to be. What message does it send? I think what is best for the team is the future, always! 
 

I think it is how Carolina does it, worry about and address the future now and the present will take care of itself. 
 

we don't need to rebuild if we continue with what we have, but focus on the Draft and development of players and prospects. The players we have now can mentor the youth, and if we adhere to the future methodology, eventually the youth take over. Waves! 
 

 

[travel_dude]

31 minutes ago, robrob74 said:

I think a lot of narratives us fans can cling to might not be as heavy on teams morale as we claim them to be. What message does it send? I think what is best for the team is the future, always! 
 

I think it is how Carolina does it, worry about and address the future now and the present will take care of itself. 
 

we don't need to rebuild if we continue with what we have, but focus on the Draft and development of players and prospects. The players we have now can mentor the youth, and if we adhere to the future methodology, eventually the youth take over. Waves! 
 

 

 

Wrong coach.  Have to be fully developed and capable of scoring goals.

The only two prospects to play longer than a "tryout" are Pelletier and Duehr.

One is a role player here, while the other should have been ready in October.

The limited view in camp and the bias to vets that don't need to prove anything will prevent that.

 

A selloff at TDL was very much deserved.

So was a firing of the coach.

Both groups should have expected being accountable for it.

Players were waiting for the call from the GM.

Instead the same approach used, like nothing happened.

Post a loss, see the same.

Clinging to the very things that proved you can't make it is the bigger problem.

 

Imagine what the players think when they look at a player scratched but see ones that should be scratched playing.

Or they hear a coach downplay a young player or make fun of a media guy for their opinions.

I'm not saying the room is broken.  I think the players all like one another.

But I do think that they have opinions that they won't say out loud.

[zima]

So we have the chance of getting a decent pick but choose to win enough to lose out on a quality pick why? even if we get into the playoffs we will be out in first round so what we now allow the Flams management get a playoff cash win but what good is that for the team it's self ? We don't gain a damn thing other than one 4-7 games so in others words one and done and get a top 20 - 25 pick but if we can manage to lose say the next 8 games we can perhaps get a over all 12th rounder next yr we have no firstsa or the next yr after that lets take advantage of option to get a top pick this yr I have no trouble with the team losing the next bunch of games if it gives us a chance top pick.

[jjgallow]

On 3/15/2023 at 2:12 PM, travel_dude said:

 

Wrong coach.  Have to be fully developed and capable of scoring goals.

The only two prospects to play longer than a "tryout" are Pelletier and Duehr.

One is a role player here, while the other should have been ready in October.

The limited view in camp and the bias to vets that don't need to prove anything will prevent that.

 

A selloff at TDL was very much deserved.

So was a firing of the coach.

Both groups should have expected being accountable for it.

Players were waiting for the call from the GM.

Instead the same approach used, like nothing happened.

Post a loss, see the same.

Clinging to the very things that proved you can't make it is the bigger problem.

 

Imagine what the players think when they look at a player scratched but see ones that should be scratched playing.

Or they hear a coach downplay a young player or make fun of a media guy for their opinions.

I'm not saying the room is broken.  I think the players all like one another.

But I do think that they have opinions that they won't say out loud.

 

I agree with most of this, in particular selling at tdl.

 

I might suggest though, as have before, that our prospect pool may not be as good as we think it is.    I mean, how many years now has BT been selling prospects/picks?

 

After a while you start to get used to it and think it's normal, and any sort of talent we see out of the system looks promising.

I'm not trying to discount all our prospects, or give Sutter a free pass.  Especially with Dustin Wolf.  But just saying.