Chance to make playoffs? Draft lottery?

[bosn111]

Okay, I know it has been a difficult season to watch for Flames fans, but I wanted to look at and discuss how the remaining 16 games could play out for the team and how everything will likely end for the team this season.

 

Historically the wild card spot has taken around 95 points to earn, so I will make that the target for discussion here. The Flames currently have 71 points, meaning they need to get another 24 points (12 wins) out of the last 16 games or a win rate of 75%. This is a difficult ask for any team, let alone our inconsistent Flames.

 

The remaining schedule has the Flames playing 7 games against teams above them in the standings, including division / conference leaders. There are also games against Nashville and Winnipeg, the 2 teams most in competition with Calgary for the Wild Card spots.

 

All games are against Western Conference teams so all games are more valuable for final standings. St. Louis is currently 8 points back of the Flames, Vancouver 10, both with a game in hand in the west, while whole league, Ottawa, Buffalo and Detroit, are all within 4 points of the Flames with a game in hand.

 

So the Flames chances are slim to make the playoffs, but it is unlikely that they pick in the top 10 in the draft. It is most likely that they stay in the 11-14 range for picks, having missed the playoffs. Essentially the most likely scenario is the worst case one for this team. No playoffs but not lottery eligible for #1 overall. At best, the lottery could jump them 10 spots, into 2nd to 4th range, depending on final standings, but very unlikely. The Flames would need a full collapse with significant help from lower teams making runs, to get into a better lottery position.

 

In conclusion, don’t expect many happy Flames fans over the next while.

 

 

[travel_dude]

I won't get into lotto chances or what we will do in the final 16, just some observations.

14th worst as of this morning.

13th with a loss due to RW record.

12th with a regulation loss to Ottawa.

We then are just 2 ahead of Buffalo who will have 2 games in hand.

One win out of those two and we drop to 11th.

 

The placements change every game since the margins are so small.

Ottawa is like a 4 point game.

 

Any changes that have a positive impact to the team's record are pointless right now unless we win 12 or more games.

66 games into the season and you realize you had a problem?

A loss today MAY mean we abondon the belief that we make the playoffs and START evaluating the players we MAY want to keep.

And the prospects that SHOULD get a chance.

 

Bring in as many prospects that you can.

Bring up Phillips and Pettersen.

Play them in spots that have decent players that are playing decent.

Match their skills to those players we have.

Forget about the pending UFA's, there is no reason to continue the farse.

[The_People1]

Realistically speaking, we are looking at 87 to 91 points more or less.  Based on last year's standings, that's good for 13th, 14th, or 15th overall pick.

 

It's like the worst of the worst.  Not good enough for the playoffs and not bad enough to draft a blue chip prospect.

 

That said, this years crop of prospects seems decent... As in, that second cliff of talent extends into 15 to 16 picks deep.

[conundrumed]

Add in we don't know who's managing our draft.

This is definitely no man's land. Then of course we'll finish strong, miss the playoffs and use the strong finish as an excuse to do the same thing next year.

 

[Heartbreaker]

9 minutes ago, conundrumed said:

Add in we don't know who's managing our draft.

This is definitely no man's land. Then of course we'll finish strong, miss the playoffs and use the strong finish as an excuse to do the same thing next year.

 

 

Sounds about right.

 

Love.

[travel_dude]

5 hours ago, The_People1 said:

Realistically speaking, we are looking at 87 to 91 points more or less.  Based on last year's standings, that's good for 13th, 14th, or 15th overall pick.

 

It's like the worst of the worst.  Not good enough for the playoffs and not bad enough to draft a blue chip prospect.

 

That said, this years crop of prospects seems decent... As in, that second cliff of talent extends into 15 to 16 picks deep.

 

19 minutes ago, conundrumed said:

Add in we don't know who's managing our draft.

This is definitely no man's land. Then of course we'll finish strong, miss the playoffs and use the strong finish as an excuse to do the same thing next year.

 

 

I'm not really fooled by this team thinking we are going to win half or more of our games.

We win two games where the goalie doesn't look great or we manage a SO win because of an offside (DAL and MIN).

We beat a tired team with a rookie goalie (OTT).

 

Stranger things have happened, but I don't see the winning continuing.  The coaching hasn't adjusted, just the goalie is playing better.  We aren't beating Vegas or WPG or LA or NAS.  VAN loves to play spoiler for us.  And ARI is playing better; 7 of 8 points in the last 4, playing STL, NAS, COL and MIN.  My guess is 85 points.  That is 10th overall territory.

 

  

[cross16]

Smarter thing is to get into the lottery. Odd are small but man a blue chip prospect, especially at center ice, would be a game changer for this franchise. 

 

Their odds of the playoffs are marginally better than their lottery odds at this point. Lottery would strengthen the franchise more than the playoffs. 

[travel_dude]

14 minutes ago, cross16 said:

Smarter thing is to get into the lottery. Odd are small but man a blue chip prospect, especially at center ice, would be a game changer for this franchise. 

 

Their odds of the playoffs are marginally better than their lottery odds at this point. Lottery would strengthen the franchise more than the playoffs. 

 

There are 9 team that don't have a chance at making the playoffs at all unless there was an epic collapse in both conferences.

They won't be winning much and at best will try to play spoiler.

There are 5 teams in the East that have a shot and 2 in the West.

We would likely need to push out EDM or SEA to make it.

Minny or COL or NAS will be in the WC.

 

It's not going to be like the Laine draft, where we come one short of getting 2nd overall or one too many to get 3rd.

But it's possible we have one win too many to get into the top 10.

And top 10 in the 2nd round.

A strong finish does nothing for this team.

[conundrumed]

1 hour ago, cross16 said:

Smarter thing is to get into the lottery. Odd are small but man a blue chip prospect, especially at center ice, would be a game changer for this franchise. 

 

Their odds of the playoffs are marginally better than their lottery odds at this point. Lottery would strengthen the franchise more than the playoffs. 

Hope you like 0.5 to 1.5% odds.

I hate the lottery. Just build in rules.

If you're last, you get 1st pick. Next year, the highest you draft is 6th, then 5th, then 4th, then 3rd, then you have a shot at 1st again.

If you get 2nd pick, the highest you get is 5th next year, then 4th, then 2nd.

There HAS to be a better algorithm.

What are we doing now? 10 teams fighting for a lottery pick?

I hate the lottery setup, and not just because Detroit gets cold-dicked with no grease every year.

It's poorly designed, pretty much a knee-jerk reaction against teams doing it on purpose.

Again with Detroit...dead last, by a lot. Not because they wanna be, but because they are that bad.

So they got punished for being horrendous. It's pretty ridiculous to say that they did it on purpose.

[travel_dude]

22 minutes ago, conundrumed said:

Hope you like 0.5 to 1.5% odds.

I hate the lottery. Just build in rules.

If you're last, you get 1st pick. Next year, the highest you draft is 6th, then 5th, then 4th, then 3rd, then you have a shot at 1st again.

If you get 2nd pick, the highest you get is 5th next year, then 4th, then 2nd.

There HAS to be a better algorithm.

What are we doing now? 10 teams fighting for a lottery pick?

I hate the lottery setup, and not just because Detroit gets cold-dicked with no grease every year.

It's poorly designed, pretty much a knee-jerk reaction against teams doing it on purpose.

Again with Detroit...dead last, by a lot. Not because they wanna be, but because they are that bad.

So they got punished for being horrendous. It's pretty ridiculous to say that they did it on purpose.

 

It's 11 teams, since you can move up a max of 10 spots.  10th has a 3.5% chance.  

But the system is just a fan thing.  Get them interested in another loser chance.

Tune in to see the ball drop, well more like an hour long show to see a card held up.

[The_People1]

49 minutes ago, conundrumed said:

Hope you like 0.5 to 1.5% odds.

I hate the lottery. Just build in rules.

If you're last, you get 1st pick. Next year, the highest you draft is 6th, then 5th, then 4th, then 3rd, then you have a shot at 1st again.

If you get 2nd pick, the highest you get is 5th next year, then 4th, then 2nd.

There HAS to be a better algorithm.

What are we doing now? 10 teams fighting for a lottery pick?

I hate the lottery setup, and not just because Detroit gets cold-dicked with no grease every year.

It's poorly designed, pretty much a knee-jerk reaction against teams doing it on purpose.

Again with Detroit...dead last, by a lot. Not because they wanna be, but because they are that bad.

So they got punished for being horrendous. It's pretty ridiculous to say that they did it on purpose.

 

Unweighted lottery is the only solution.  All teams try to win to the very last game of the season.  All teams who miss the playoffs get 1 ball in the lotto machine and we draw the draft order from that.

[The_People1]

4 hours ago, conundrumed said:

Add in we don't know who's managing our draft.

This is definitely no man's land. Then of course we'll finish strong, miss the playoffs and use the strong finish as an excuse to do the same thing next year.

 

That was the Vancouver Canucks trap last season.  They end up locking up JT Miller long term and lost Bo Horvat 7 months later.  They thought they were ready to be contenders just because they finished their season so strong.

 

That's exactly what we are going to do too.  We know it.

[robrob74]

Can the Flames still move up 10 spots regardless of where they finish? That would also be a win. If we ended up in the 12-15 spots and moved up some, that would be best scenario considering we know they'll win as much as possible to miss anyway.

 

Or do they stay at their draft position if they're 11 or 12 and up?

[conundrumed]

The lottery is teams 1 through 16. The chance at #1oa ends at the 11th place team at 3% chance.

The chance to move up is 2.5% at 12th, 2% at 13th, 1.5% at 14 and 0.5% at 15 and 16.

Here's a probability chart if we finish 14th.

https://www.tankathon.com/nhl/pick_odds

 

[travel_dude]

6 hours ago, robrob74 said:

Can the Flames still move up 10 spots regardless of where they finish? That would also be a win. If we ended up in the 12-15 spots and moved up some, that would be best scenario considering we know they'll win as much as possible to miss anyway.

 

Or do they stay at their draft position if they're 11 or 12 and up?

 

As Cross points out, we have a chance.  The ruies get adjusted every once in awhile, but are stable for now.

Our chances of making the playoffs are still okay, just due to the math.

I don't think you can calculate the odds, since we have the Sutter factor and team losing interest.

A loss to ARI and players might feel time to fold up the tent.

They know how many wins they need.

2-1 over three games doesn't cut it.

Has to be 3-1 in 4.  Or better.

[flames-fan-in-jets-land]

It doesnt matter. Yotes are getting first pick. The conspiracy theorist in me thinks these lotto draws are all pre planned. A generational talent in Arizona either guarantees new arena approval OR ups the franchise value for cities looking for a relocated team. 

 

/removes tinfoil hat.

[travel_dude]

1 minute ago, flames-fan-in-jets-land said:

It doesnt matter. Yotes are getting first pick. The conspiracy theorist in me thinks these lotto draws are all pre planned. A generational talent in Arizona either guarantees new arena approval OR ups the franchise value for cities looking for a relocated team. 

 

/removes tinfoil hat.

 

It will come closer to the arena being built.

Ask EDM and PITTS.

 

If we were so fortunate to get Bedard, we would re-sign Lucic and play him on the 4th line together.

Or we would keep him in the CHL until he was old enough to play in the AHL.

As somebody once said, scoring in junior and AHL is not the NHL.

 

If we were fortunate enough to land Bedard, then we immediately need to can the entire coaching staff.

Successful coaches are let go all the time.  One that had a single year of success bookended by failure doesn't get a pass.

I don't see Sutter as a builder, just a win now, prospects don't factor into the cup type.

[Heartbreaker]

10 minutes ago, flames-fan-in-jets-land said:

It doesnt matter. Yotes are getting first pick. The conspiracy theorist in me thinks these lotto draws are all pre planned. A generational talent in Arizona either guarantees new arena approval OR ups the franchise value for cities looking for a relocated team. 

 

/removes tinfoil hat.

 

Nah, I think if that were true, Auston Matthews would have landed there.

 

Love.

[conundrumed]

3 hours ago, travel_dude said:

 

As Cross points out, we have a chance.  The ruies get adjusted every once in awhile, but are stable for now.

Our chances of making the playoffs are still okay, just due to the math.

I don't think you can calculate the odds, since we have the Sutter factor and team losing interest.

A loss to ARI and players might feel time to fold up the tent.

They know how many wins they need.

2-1 over three games doesn't cut it.

Has to be 3-1 in 4.  Or better.

*cough cough* What? Our chances of beating out Nashville aren't even okay.

We're a .500 team and have been for a long time. Not like we didn't have our chances and blew them already.

I applaud your positivity.

[travel_dude]

24 minutes ago, conundrumed said:

*cough cough* What? Our chances of beating out Nashville aren't even okay.

We're a .500 team and have been for a long time. Not like we didn't have our chances and blew them already.

I applaud your positivity.

 

I wasn't exactly being positive.  According to odds-makers (who do this for money), we have a 27.4% chance of making the playoffs, while NAS has 15.2%.

Our better odds are likely counted on strength of schedule.  NAS faces more playoff bound teams than we do.  

Okay odds is not good.  Just Okay.  

But I went on to say even good odds don't factor in the coach or the players.

Win then lose.  Win, win, lose takes it's toll.

The players are not going to give up after losing a game to Vegas or Dallas. 

Lose to ARI, then go into a barn we have never won in?

 

Anyway, we have better odds of making the playoffs than getting 1st overall right now.

I've given up on the former and hope for the latter.

I get really annoyed that they played hard in a B2B set and then lose to ANA at home.

Big deal, we beat Ottawa after they lost to VAN. 

[conundrumed]

I cling to the 1%ish chance that we jump 9 or 10 spots in the draft.lol

If not, I hope we don't play the common consent game and just "reach" on Nate Danielson. He'll likely be ranked around 20th.

[jjgallow]

1 hour ago, travel_dude said:

 

I wasn't exactly being positive.  According to odds-makers (who do this for money), we have a 27.4% chance of making the playoffs, while NAS has 15.2%.

Our better odds are likely counted on strength of schedule.  NAS faces more playoff bound teams than we do.  

Okay odds is not good.  Just Okay.  

But I went on to say even good odds don't factor in the coach or the players.

Win then lose.  Win, win, lose takes it's toll.

The players are not going to give up after losing a game to Vegas or Dallas. 

Lose to ARI, then go into a barn we have never won in?

 

Anyway, we have better odds of making the playoffs than getting 1st overall right now.

I've given up on the former and hope for the latter.

I get really annoyed that they played hard in a B2B set and then lose to ANA at home.

Big deal, we beat Ottawa after they lost to VAN. 

 

I am really loving this new vibe of yours.   Looking at making an unconditional negativity thread

 

I mean, let's be honest, is it good if we barely make the playoffs and get blown out in the first round?   imho the question should never be "can we make the playoffs".

 

It should be "can we succeed in the playoffs".    To me the answer there is no unless a number of things change which are not going to change.

 

Obviously it is an excellent, excellent year to draft high, and it IS possible for a superstar to drop down to us.  Just not super likely.

 HOWEVER:   I have noticed that there are 3 high-skill defencemen who have all been pushed down in this thick draft.  One in each of Switzerland, Sweden, and Russia.    2/3 of those countries are poorly scouted.   There may be a superstar if you pick the right one of those 3 in the area we're currently headed for.

 

 

It's a tough spot.   I admit, nobody really wants a "let's tank" plan.  It's extreme, I know it.

 

Then again, imho, so is "win now".   "win now", is what got us here.

 

Finding a balance between those 2 extremes is tough.    But here's something positive:  things can't get MUCH worse.  maybe a little.  but not a lot worse. And we're all still here.

[travel_dude]

1 minute ago, conundrumed said:

I cling to the 1%ish chance that we jump 9 or 10 spots in the draft.lol

If not, I hope we don't play the common consent game and just "reach" on Nate Danielson. He'll likely be ranked around 20th.

 

My preference is to just continue to be the team we were all season long.

We don't deserve the playoffs based on the season results.

I don't care if we had bad luck, hit the posts or whatever.

We had bad goaltending, bad coaching, bad lines, bad games, and bad shooting.

If they continue the final 15 games the way we played the first 67, we end up with 87-89 points.

 

Most recently, we had 6 games in March and got 6 points.

11 games in February and got 12 points.

[travel_dude]

8 minutes ago, jjgallow said:

I am really loving this new vibe of yours.   Looking at making an unconditional negativity thread

 

I mean, let's be honest, is it good if we barely make the playoffs and get blown out in the first round?   imho the question should never be "can we make the playoffs".

 

It should be "can we succeed in the playoffs".    To me the answer there is no unless a number of things change which are not going to chang

 

Start one up if you like.  I have my dark days.

I am loathe to suggest how we do in this year's playoffs.

Seeding matters.  Injuries at the wrong time matter.

We came close to facing NAS last year and a weird flip of the coin and we get Dallas.

Would we be as bad in round 2 facing NAS in round 1?  Doubt it.

 

I can probably come up with a few teams we could beat in round 1 this year.

Doubt we face them.

Even if we do, we get Vegas in round 2.

Sucker bet.  Never beat them in Vegas and we play as many as 4 there.

 

The simple facts are we need Markstrom to win another 13 games to get to the playoffs.

Him doing that implies he is flawless and can face the playoff teams.

Him playing that many suggests he will be burned out completely.

Sutter is not going to use Vladar if we have a chance left, which is why I said the above.

 

I used to be of the belief that you play to game 82 and let the chips fall.

But we have been great at winning or losing the exact wrong games and the chips roll off the table.

We win a play-in series in a year we didn't make the main 16 team list.

We end up at 19th and WPG at 10th.

Too lazy to figure out whether it impacts NY winning the lotto.

[flames-fan-in-jets-land]

4 hours ago, Heartbreaker said:

 

Nah, I think if that were true, Auston Matthews would have landed there.

 

Love.

No matter what any Leaf fan says Matthews is not generational. The league needed to keep hopes up in the GTA as he would have been wasted going to Arizona. Much more lucrative to keep up the interests of Leaf Nation than try to gain more interest in the desert.  This time around theres other factors at stake.