2022 Offseason

[phoenix66]

The interesting ones will be Lucic and Monahan..

If I understand capfriendly right Lucic now only has a modified no trade he has to give us 10 teams he'll go to .so it may be doable ..

Monahan is a dilemma .. if we get him back healthy, then he's worth keeping..otherwise he has virtually no trade value..for sure negative trade value 

Plus if you cast him off that may be a tie in to Johnny resigning or not 

[The_People1]

38 minutes ago, phoenix66 said:

First to be clear I'm not promoting these changes, just pointing out that some unpopular ones may be necessary.. but at the same time I don't think we give Lindholm especially enough credit 

Personally I don't think Johnny goes anywhere unless he gets a close to home deal that he can't refuse 

 

It's just that if we lose Gaudreau, then we are closer to a full tear down than we are to a Cup and so we may as well tear it down.  I don't believe there is a scenario where we lose Gaudreau and actually get better.

[The_People1]

11 minutes ago, phoenix66 said:

The interesting ones will be Lucic and Monahan..

If I understand capfriendly right Lucic now only has a modified no trade he has to give us 10 teams he'll go to .so it may be doable ..

Monahan is a dilemma .. if we get him back healthy, then he's worth keeping..otherwise he has virtually no trade value..for sure negative trade value 

Plus if you cast him off that may be a tie in to Johnny resigning or not 

 

Lucic and Toffoli are best friends off the ice so same dilemma there.  If you move Lucic or Toffoli, then the guy who stays may not want to.  I think you move them both as a package.  And if I had to pick one to stay then I pick Lucic.  Toffoli could still have value and we can trade him before he has no more left.  That, and Lucic gives us the toughness that we need.

[The_People1]

44 minutes ago, phoenix66 said:

First to be clear I'm not promoting these changes, just pointing out that some unpopular ones may be necessary.. but at the same time I don't think we give Lindholm especially enough credit 

Personally I don't think Johnny goes anywhere unless he gets a close to home deal that he can't refuse 

 

Same same.  I'm just throwing ideas out there too.

 

In terms of Gaudreau, it probably comes down to PHI, NJ, NYR, NYI and Calgary.  Of these, NJ is in the best positioned to offer Gaudreau something in the $11-mil range.  We need to match or he's going home out East.

[The_People1]

1 hour ago, phoenix66 said:

Heck.. could we trade Markstrom knowing Vladar looked good and wolf could be ready for next step? Maybe good enough to even steal the spot?

 

In terms of this, Markstrom has a full NMC for four more years so it's unlikely he moves.  Lindholm is his best friend.  They both like it here.  They not going anywhere.

 

Next year though, Vladar has one more year on contract and Wolf is only 21-years-old.  Logic says play Wolf one more year in AHL and then let Vladar walk after his contract expires if he can't outplay Markstrom.  Otherwise, the 2023-24 season, we should see a Markstrom/Wolf tandem.

[The_People1]

1 hour ago, travel_dude said:

 

If we could get a #1 LD, then keep Hanifin with Tanev.

Trade Kylington at his highest value.

 

Yups this exactly.  Get a #1 LD.  Not easy of course.

[Thebrewcrew]

7 minutes ago, The_People1 said:

 

Same same.  I'm just throwing ideas out there too.

 

In terms of Gaudreau, it probably comes down to PHI, NJ, NYR, NYI and Calgary.  Of these, NJ is in the best positioned to offer Gaudreau something in the $11-mil range.  We need to match or he's going home out East.

The 8th year can keep the AAV down. I think 12x7 from an NJ is 10.5x8 from Calgary. 11x8 from Calgary is 12.57x7 from an NJ. They aren’t exceeding McDavid’s cap hit for Johnny

[travel_dude]

2 minutes ago, The_People1 said:

 

Yups this exactly.  Get a #1 LD.  Not easy of course.

 

Arizona doesn't have a real direction.

They have zero name brands there.

Might have interest in names like Monahan and Tkachuk.

We would need back a Chychrun and Crouse.

They have the money and roster space.

Send Shilly or Valimaki if it gets the deal done.

I think Tkachuk is easier to replace than Gaudreau.

Not the full package but the scoring.

 

We have to be careful not to strip down too much and improve the places we were exposed.

4th line.  Top pairing D.  Down the middle.

We have depth at LW and in some respects RW.

Jarnkrok would be better suited on RW with a big C.

Toffoli would be better suited with a playmaker.

I think we can leave the Backlund line alone.

I would be inclined to use Jarnkrok as a 4th line RW and have a decent line with a big C.

 

Top line, if you lose Tkachuk, needs a N/S finisher.

 

[phoenix66]

32 minutes ago, The_People1 said:

 

It's just that if we lose Gaudreau, then we are closer to a full tear down than we are to a Cup and so we may as well tear it down.  I don't believe there is a scenario where we lose Gaudreau and actually get better.

There's always a scenario.. Tavares left nyi and they actually got better .

Sign and trade .. player like Huberdeau ..etc.  just sayin we don't know what options could present where it makes sense .. 

 

18 minutes ago, The_People1 said:

 

In terms of this, Markstrom has a full NMC for four more years so it's unlikely he moves.  Lindholm is his best friend.  They both like it here.  They not going anywhere.

 

Next year though, Vladar has one more year on contract and Wolf is only 21-years-old.  Logic says play Wolf one more year in AHL and then let Vladar walk after his contract expires if he can't outplay Markstrom.  Otherwise, the 2023-24 season, we should see a Markstrom/Wolf tandem.

Little different in the sensewe aren't dealing with Ufa here 

 

you can always move a nmc , they just limit your options ..gotta admit tho I'm reluctant to give up Vladar for nothing ..he really looks like something special 

[phoenix66]

19 minutes ago, Thebrewcrew said:

The 8th year can keep the AAV down. I think 12x7 from an NJ is 10.5x8 from Calgary. 11x8 from Calgary is 12.57x7 from an NJ. They aren’t exceeding McDavid’s cap hit for Johnny

No but new jersey might..

From a pure personal point of view why wouid I take the same money over 8 years when I can have it In 7? If I get offered 12.5 x 7 and it's all about $ , I want 12.5x8 from Calgary 

[The_People1]

1 hour ago, Thebrewcrew said:

The 8th year can keep the AAV down. I think 12x7 from an NJ is 10.5x8 from Calgary. 11x8 from Calgary is 12.57x7 from an NJ. They aren’t exceeding McDavid’s cap hit for Johnny

 

Fair point.  The 8th year means Gaudreau will be signed until 36.  If Gaudreau agrees that final year he will decline in production and takes a discount then we can bring down his AAV.  Otherwise, if he thinks he can be a 90-point player at 36, then there's no bargains to be given.

 

We just saw Pavelski and Malkin have stud years despite being 37 and 35... No reason for Gaudreau to accept he declines drastically at 36.

[The_People1]

1 hour ago, travel_dude said:

 

Arizona doesn't have a real direction.

They have zero name brands there.

Might have interest in names like Monahan and Tkachuk.

We would need back a Chychrun and Crouse.

They have the money and roster space.

Send Shilly or Valimaki if it gets the deal done.

I think Tkachuk is easier to replace than Gaudreau.

Not the full package but the scoring.

 

We have to be careful not to strip down too much and improve the places we were exposed.

4th line.  Top pairing D.  Down the middle.

We have depth at LW and in some respects RW.

Jarnkrok would be better suited on RW with a big C.

Toffoli would be better suited with a playmaker.

I think we can leave the Backlund line alone.

I would be inclined to use Jarnkrok as a 4th line RW and have a decent line with a big C.

 

Top line, if you lose Tkachuk, needs a N/S finisher.

 

No idea what ARZ wants to do.  They don't even have their own arena next season so probably wants to trim the budget as much as possible and can't give Tkachuk a big contract.

 

I like Clayton Keller too.  He can move back to Center and if given someone like Toffoli to finish his plays, then those two could work.

 

I don't know what's Tkachuk's trade value.  Can he land two studs like Chychrun + Keller?  Maybe we have to add Hanifin?

[The_People1]

Hypothetically speaking, at what price of an offer sheet do we not match for Tkachuk?

 

https://www.capfriendly.com/offer-sheet-calculator

[tmac70]

For me you keep the top line together. Losing either of them creates major holes that you will neve fill internally.  I will still advocate that we have larger issues on D and 3rd 4th line. If we could get both Zadorov and Gubranson bad thats a plus, the holes we need to fill are the top 4. I am fine with Anderson and Tanev so that leaves Kylington and Hanifin as movable. Lucic should be moved, I am Ok with Jankrow but am on the fence with Mony, Dube, Toffolii an Mags. I see upside in Ruzicka as better option for Monhan and Calli. We know Backs is a good 2nd line center. 

 

To save cap space your going to have to promote from within. So do you bring up a Phillips, Deuhr, Zary or Pelltier to add some speed to the roster. Not saying he makes it but a Dman like Porier is what is need, threat on the blue line offensive guy.  As for Vali he just seems to pout don't like his entitled attitude. Stone was  a good 7th Dman this year. 

 

If your keeping Mony than he needs speed on the wings and playmkers to assist. Phillips or Pelliter seem to fit that mold. A line of Dube Mony Phillips could be good, or insert Pelltier. Line of Dube Ruzika Phillips could be good as well. If we lose Mags than you need to substitute 30 goals some where in the mix. Regardless there are going to be holes to fill, I prefer the not be on the top line, that is the only line that doesn't require repairs. 

[Thebrewcrew]

1 hour ago, phoenix66 said:

No but new jersey might..

From a pure personal point of view why wouid I take the same money over 8 years when I can have it In 7? If I get offered 12.5 x 7 and it's all about $ , I want 12.5x8 from Calgary 

If Gaudreau leaves, I don’t think it will be because he’s getting a McDavid deal. It’s to be closer to home and I think he would take a discount to do it.

 

Most players want the money over 8 years because it’s an extra year of big money and security. To us normal folks, 10.5x7 and 10.5x8 doesn’t seem like much of a difference, but it does to the players.

 

NJ gets thrown around a lot because his address is technically NJ, but he’s a Philly guy. Would be like Makar one day hitting UFA and choosing Edmonton over Calgary. He might end up in NJ but I think PHI would be his top choice . Flyers have some hoops to jump through to get it done though

[Thebrewcrew]

36 minutes ago, The_People1 said:

Hypothetically speaking, at what price of an offer sheet do we not match for Tkachuk?

 

https://www.capfriendly.com/offer-sheet-calculator

If it’s a team that’s unlikely to be successful in 2023, you consider not matching because Bedard or Michkov would be a real nice prize for losing Tkachuk. 
 

Hard to tell though, who woulda thought MTL would finish 32nd this season?

[The_People1]

19 minutes ago, tmac70 said:

For me you keep the top line together. Losing either of them creates major holes that you will neve fill internally.  I will still advocate that we have larger issues on D and 3rd 4th line. If we could get both Zadorov and Gubranson bad thats a plus, the holes we need to fill are the top 4. I am fine with Anderson and Tanev so that leaves Kylington and Hanifin as movable. Lucic should be moved, I am Ok with Jankrow but am on the fence with Mony, Dube, Toffolii an Mags. I see upside in Ruzicka as better option for Monhan and Calli. We know Backs is a good 2nd line center. 

 

To save cap space your going to have to promote from within. So do you bring up a Phillips, Deuhr, Zary or Pelltier to add some speed to the roster. Not saying he makes it but a Dman like Porier is what is need, threat on the blue line offensive guy.  As for Vali he just seems to pout don't like his entitled attitude. Stone was  a good 7th Dman this year. 

 

If your keeping Mony than he needs speed on the wings and playmkers to assist. Phillips or Pelliter seem to fit that mold. A line of Dube Mony Phillips could be good, or insert Pelltier. Line of Dube Ruzika Phillips could be good as well. If we lose Mags than you need to substitute 30 goals some where in the mix. Regardless there are going to be holes to fill, I prefer the not be on the top line, that is the only line that doesn't require repairs. 

 

Ideally we move heaven and earth to sign both Gaudreau and Tkachuk but the salary cap reality is, Gaudreau should be looking at $11.6-mil while Tkachuk will also ask for 100-point money... So that's as much as $11-mil x 8 for Tkachuk.  

 

Tkachuk is RFA controlled but could sign an offer sheet.  Someone will offer I'm sure.  24-years-old 104-points, 40-goals, size, sandpaper, grit, trash talking, hate to play against, etc.  We should not be surprised if someone comes at Tkachuk with $10.4-mil x 5-years knowing we cannot match.

[travel_dude]

8 minutes ago, The_People1 said:

 

Ideally we move heaven and earth to sign both Gaudreau and Tkachuk but the salary cap reality is, Gaudreau should be looking at $11.6-mil while Tkachuk will also ask for 100-point money... So that's as much as $11-mil x 8 for Tkachuk.  

 

Tkachuk is RFA controlled but could sign an offer sheet.  Someone will offer I'm sure.  24-years-old 104-points, 40-goals, size, sandpaper, grit, trash talking, hate to play against, etc.  We should not be surprised if someone comes at Tkachuk with $10.4-mil x 5-years knowing we cannot match.

 

I think you can get away with 10x8 for Johnny.  He hates having to live up to some number.  The last deal he under performed except for two seasons.  

 

Tkachuk offer sheet is difficult to construct.  It needs to be attractive enough to Tkachuk to get him to possibly risk a letdown.  Jersey signs him to 5 years and he averages out as a 60 point player.  In 5 years has the cap gone up enough to warrant $10m+ for a 60 point player?  Doubt it.  That his risk.  He want 7 or 8 years now.  I think.  Or 1 and get another career year with Gaudreau.  Then it's UFA time.  

[The_People1]

18 minutes ago, travel_dude said:

 

I think you can get away with 10x8 for Johnny.  He hates having to live up to some number.  The last deal he under performed except for two seasons.  

 

Tkachuk offer sheet is difficult to construct.  It needs to be attractive enough to Tkachuk to get him to possibly risk a letdown.  Jersey signs him to 5 years and he averages out as a 60 point player.  In 5 years has the cap gone up enough to warrant $10m+ for a 60 point player?  Doubt it.  That his risk.  He want 7 or 8 years now.  I think.  Or 1 and get another career year with Gaudreau.  Then it's UFA time.  

 

Can NJ afford both Gaudreau and Tkachuk?  That would be crazy.  Jack Hughes is trending top 10 Center in the NHL so I doubt Tkachuk regresses playing on his wing.  Tkachuk can put up 100-points with Hughes.  I'm sure NJ wants his size to complement Hughes.

 

$10.4-mil probably breaks our bank.  But I can see someone offer that because the numbers this season justify it.

[sak22]

40 minutes ago, The_People1 said:

 

Ideally we move heaven and earth to sign both Gaudreau and Tkachuk but the salary cap reality is, Gaudreau should be looking at $11.6-mil while Tkachuk will also ask for 100-point money... So that's as much as $11-mil x 8 for Tkachuk.  

 

Tkachuk is RFA controlled but could sign an offer sheet.  Someone will offer I'm sure.  24-years-old 104-points, 40-goals, size, sandpaper, grit, trash talking, hate to play against, etc.  We should not be surprised if someone comes at Tkachuk with $10.4-mil x 5-years knowing we cannot match.

Keep in mind an offer sheet has to be signed, so it would have to be a team he'd want to play for.  There are teams that won't have the ability to sign him and teams he'd likely have no interest in signing with regardless of the money.  I think he'd want to go to a contender and most of them don't have the ability to.

[The_People1]

31 minutes ago, sak22 said:

Keep in mind an offer sheet has to be signed, so it would have to be a team he'd want to play for.  There are teams that won't have the ability to sign him and teams he'd likely have no interest in signing with regardless of the money.  I think he'd want to go to a contender and most of them don't have the ability to.

 

Yes true.

 

Maybe the Blues can sign him to a $10.4-mil x 5 and then dump Tarasenko immediately to free up the cap space.  Tkachuk is from St.Louis and they want to bring Tkachuk home.  The Blues are contenders.

 

Short of that, Tkachuk's qualifying offer is $9-mil for 1-year so he can take that and go UFA next year.  That's his bargaining chip so even though he's RFA protected, he still has lots of leverage.

 

Anyways, my point is there's no way we get a bargain on Tkachuk.  He's already indirectly stated this during Brady Tkachuk's negotiations.  He will get paid 104-point money and that's not going to be under $10-million.  Yet, $10-mil really makes it impossible for us to bring him back because Gaudreau will cost $11-mil or so.  And somehow we need money to get better elsewhere.  We are all talking like $9-mil-per is a mistake for Tkachuk so $10-mil makes it difficult to be happy with.

[travel_dude]

42 minutes ago, The_People1 said:

 

Can NJ afford both Gaudreau and Tkachuk?  That would be crazy.  Jack Hughes is trending top 10 Center in the NHL so I doubt Tkachuk regresses playing on his wing.  Tkachuk can put up 100-points with Hughes.  I'm sure NJ wants his size to complement Hughes.

 

$10.4-mil probably breaks our bank.  But I can see someone offer that because the numbers this season justify it.

 

Maybe, but even with Hischier the Debbies didn't break 100 points.

Tkachuk has two 40 goal guys on his line and PP time with them as well.

Don't see him getting close with a building team.

 

$10.4M means that we have to trade him after a career year.

We can lve that way short term, and yes the cap % diminishes over time.

But, him staying here means he just gets better here.

We have to pay more at year 6.

I can see him wanting to keep the term down here.

But I think his playoff performance scares off a few teams.

[travel_dude]

10 minutes ago, The_People1 said:

 

Yes true.

 

Maybe the Blues can sign him to a $10.4-mil x 5 and then dump Tarasenko immediately to free up the cap space.  Tkachuk is from St.Louis and they want to bring Tkachuk home.  The Blues are contenders.

 

Short of that, Tkachuk's qualifying offer is $9-mil for 1-year so he can take that and go UFA next year.  That's his bargaining chip so even though he's RFA protected, he still has lots of leverage.

 

Anyways, my point is there's no way we get a bargain on Tkachuk.  He's already indirectly stated this during Brady Tkachuk's negotiations.  He will get paid 104-point money and that's not going to be under $10-million.  Yet, $10-mil really makes it impossible for us to bring him back because Gaudreau will cost $11-mil or so.  And somehow we need money to get better elsewhere.  We are all talking like $9-mil-per is a mistake for Tkachuk so $10-mil makes it difficult to be happy with.

 

You will notice that STL has to move into the 4x1st offer because they can't meet the terms of the 10.4M offer sheet.

 

Is it a smart move for 5 years?  Not al all.

You can argue that Tkachuk is worth 4 x 1sts, but I don't think you do it for 5 years.

No cost certainty.  No guarantee that the last year you gve up a pick he walks.

[sak22]

2 minutes ago, The_People1 said:

 

Yes true.

 

Maybe the Blues can sign him to a $10.4-mil x 5 and then dump Tarasenko immediately to free up the cap space.  Tkachuk is from St.Louis and they want to bring Tkachuk home.  The Blues are contenders.

 

Short of that, Tkachuk's qualifying offer is $9-mil for 1-year so he can take that and go UFA next year.  That's his bargaining chip so even though he's RFA protected, he still has lots of leverage.

 

Anyways, my point is there's no way we get a bargain on Tkachuk.  He's already indirectly stated this during Brady Tkachuk's negotiations.  He will get paid 104-point money and that's not going to be under $10-million.  Yet, $10-mil really makes it impossible for us to bring him back because Gaudreau will cost $11-mil or so.  And somehow we need money to get better elsewhere.  We are all talking like $9-mil-per is a mistake for Tkachuk so $10-mil makes it difficult to be happy with.

IMO it all depends on what happens with the cap and the expectation that it will be rising again, as the cap goes up so will the higher salaries, 10 million will never be a bargain but it could be easier to swallow once the cap gets in the 90's, but I'd expect when Matthews next contract comes up he will come in closer to 15 million and when McDavid is up the max for a player could be closer to 20 and I expect him to go for that range.

[cross16]

5 hours ago, phoenix66 said:

There's always a scenario.. Tavares left nyi and they actually got better .

Sign and trade .. player like Huberdeau ..etc.  just sayin we don't know what options could present where it makes sense .. 

 

 

They had Barzal though, a player who could fill the skill gap left by Tavares and they also hired Trotz. 
I don’t think the bottom would fall out of the Flames lost Gaudreau, they are probably still a playoff team but I’m with Peeps that I don’t see how they get better without him. Huge talent gap that they cannot fill internally.