20 21 season by series tracker

[JTech780]

No change for Calgary or Montreal today.

[cross16]

13 hours ago, JTech780 said:

There is no franchise altering player in this draft, and the best bets to be really good are college players.

 

No team with Darryl Sutter as the coach is going to tank. Also if there is a coach in this league to pull off a miracle run it's Darryl Sutter.

 

I just don't think tanking is in the DNA of guys like Treliving or Sutter.

 

The other thing is that the players we have needed to trade to go into tank mode, have term and you weren't going to get good value for players with term at this deadline.

 

I don't think it's in the DNA of the ownership group either, which is why Sutter was hired. 

 

It's not a miss opportunity too much for this draft as while there are good players, to your point not a lot of franchise altering ones and really tanking only makes sense if you can get that franchise altering talent. There are a few coming up. 

 

But with the rules changes you do have to be careful and what the Oilers did is no longer achievable IMO. Look at Detroit, they've stripped it down to rebuild and because of some poor lottery luck are now having to extend the plan. 

[travel_dude]

Another way to look at the battle between MTL and CGY to get to the dance is to look at the "magic" number.

As well there is a similar "tragic" number.

Or in this case, the tragic number.

Once we reach either, we are in or done.

 

Calgary's magic number is 18.5, a combination of CGY wins and MTL losses.  A CGY win over MTL reduces this by 2.  

Calgary's tragic number is 11.5, by the combination of CGY losses and MTL wins.  A MTL win over CGY reduces this by 2.

 

 

[zima]

Heads up I know the team would never lose to any team if they could do something about it I was just hoping we could finally get a good pick since we have lost so many firsts and second rounder.  So picking College players seems to be ok for this forum I don't understand why it is 70-30 chance of signing a quality player and it is 30 to use I myself do not like the percentage not worth the risk. This franchise puts a ton of time and money in getting these kids ready to play for us and we end up losing them I thibk things have changed a lot in the last 10 yrs kids don't care about who picked them they get to play for the team they have dreamed of playing for and 70% chance its not us. 

[travel_dude]

9 minutes ago, zima said:

Heads up I know the team would never lose to any team if they could do something about it I was just hoping we could finally get a good pick since we have lost so many firsts and second rounder.  So picking College players seems to be ok for this forum I don't understand why it is 70-30 chance of signing a quality player and it is 30 to use I myself do not like the percentage not worth the risk. This franchise puts a ton of time and money in getting these kids ready to play for us and we end up losing them I thibk things have changed a lot in the last 10 yrs kids don't care about who picked them they get to play for the team they have dreamed of playing for and 70% chance its not us. 

 

Not exactly sure what you are talking about.  Are you saying we draft college kids and lose them for nothing?

Every team has that risk.

They only get away from signing with their draft club if they stay the full 4 years.

They can sign any time before that with the drafting team.

And they can sign with their drafting team after that too.

 

What time and money are we spending on these kids in college?

None other than scouting during their years, and that assumes we can even travel there.

We spend zero dollars on their development in college.

 

[The_People1]

5 hours ago, cross16 said:

 

I don't think it's in the DNA of the ownership group either, which is why Sutter was hired. 

 

I wish it was the DNA of the NHL actually.  Time to move to fully unweighted draft lottery.  Force all teams to play to win to the very last game.

[sak22]

I think the whole tanking thing gets overblown.  If organizations set out to tank, why did Steve Tambellini, MacT, Ray Shero, Jason Botterill and Tim Murray get canned?  They did their job, don't think they took the job to be the fall guy and never get another opportunity

[bosn111]

Updated the main post

[Heartbreaker]

8 hours ago, sak22 said:

I think the whole tanking thing gets overblown.  If organizations set out to tank, why did Steve Tambellini, MacT, Ray Shero, Jason Botterill and Tim Murray get canned?  They did their job, don't think they took the job to be the fall guy and never get another opportunity

 

I don't know, Man... The Leafs set out to tank the year that Auston Matthews went first overall. Lupul has a scraped knee? Better take him out of the lineup... JVR has hurt feelings? Better take him out, too, etc... 

The Leafs finished exactly where they wanted to, and they got their man. Of course, I would argue, that the Jets won the draft lottery that year because they jumped from something like 7th to 2nd. I realize that they've since traded the player, but I felt like they picked him with some integrity. They played to the end. 

Love. 

[cross16]

7 hours ago, Heartbreaker said:

 

I don't know, Man... The Leafs set out to tank the year that Auston Matthews went first overall. Lupul has a scraped knee? Better take him out of the lineup... JVR has hurt feelings? Better take him out, too, etc... 

The Leafs finished exactly where they wanted to, and they got their man. Of course, I would argue, that the Jets won the draft lottery that year because they jumped from something like 7th to 2nd. I realize that they've since traded the player, but I felt like they picked him with some integrity. They played to the end. 

Love. 

while this is fair, it’s really starting to look like the Leafs are the exception and not the norm. 
it happens, I just don’t think it’s the guaranteed success that many seem to argue. I think most teams wind up in worse shape than better. Comes down to a lot of luck and timing too. 

[MP5029]

51 minutes ago, cross16 said:

while this is fair, it’s really starting to look like the Leafs are the exception and not the norm. 
it happens, I just don’t think it’s the guaranteed success that many seem to argue. I think most teams wind up in worse shape than better. Comes down to a lot of luck and timing too. 

not really, Ottawa has traded away most of the team on a few occasions and grabbed up a bunch of draft picks and suddenly had a good team for a year or two...they need to do that mostly cause they can’t afford to keep those amazing players past the 4/5 year mark.

 

other teams have also done a complete tear down and grabbed a bunch of top draft picks and then become really good teams...col did it and found Mackinnon and a few others to build around...

 

I can’t remember if Stl did the same type of thing...LVK were smart in the expansion draft so they are kinda an exception to any rule..

 

but generally speaking, the best thing Cgy could Do is rip everything apart say for a few guys like Tachuck, Lindholm, Gio etc...

 

the thing is, the defence and G are pretty solid, if they were smart maybe bolster the d in this years draft with a few first round picks and also keeping in mind Tanev will age over the next few years so the D is pretty much 1/2 way built for the future with Valimaki, Hanifin And Anderson...so since the team sucks so bad this year may as well make use of a draft that could actually help solidify the back end...I’m only talking an extra 1st from this years draft should do it along with the picks they got at the TDL...

 

after that, I would say they need to trade everyone else for 2022 1st round pics (well those that should fetch a 1st) 

 

so basically we would be looking at:

 

2021 Draft:

 

Gaudreau for a 1st round pick, hopefully a top 10 pick or at the very least a top 15 pick and draft a decent D

 

Cgys first round pick draft a decent D and quite possibly a top 10 pick 

 

this way we could be looking at:

 

Valimaki/Anderson

Hanifin/Tanev 

2021 Cgy 1st/2021 pick from gaudreau trade

 

next year in 2022 (strong draft year)

 

cgy 2022 1st should definitely be a top 10 pick, hopefully get that franchise C

 

2022 1st from trading Monahan, take another crack at getting a top level Ctr

 

this would then have the top 2 lines looking kinda like:

 

Tachuck/2022 1st/ Lindholm 

 

manji/ 2022 1st from Mony trade/ RW from Backlund Trade

Not including any moves you could make to build the bottom 2 lines but we also have Zary and Pelletier coming so that’s possibly 2/3rds of a line there...

 

anyway a full tear down could be possible and have a team that could complete in 2023 and beyond 

 

The only other option would be maybe a Monahan/Gaudreau/and Cgy 2021 1st to Buffalo for Eichel and Reinhart...but that would still leave a lot of work to do on the D and forward lines, as Backlund is 31 nest year so he’s definitely 3rd line Ctr but for how long? And there would still be a huge RW hole on line 2 assuming you keep Lindholm as 2nd line Ctr and Manj as 2nd line LW

 

 

 

[travel_dude]

19 hours ago, sak22 said:

I think the whole tanking thing gets overblown.  If organizations set out to tank, why did Steve Tambellini, MacT, Ray Shero, Jason Botterill and Tim Murray get canned?  They did their job, don't think they took the job to be the fall guy and never get another opportunity

 

There are many ways that you get fired.

If you are tanking and somehow pick losers or make moves that are bad for the future, then you go.

 

[robrob74]

3 hours ago, cross16 said:

while this is fair, it’s really starting to look like the Leafs are the exception and not the norm. 
it happens, I just don’t think it’s the guaranteed success that many seem to argue. I think most teams wind up in worse shape than better. Comes down to a lot of luck and timing too. 

 

but I think it’s not guaranteed success if your scouting and management suck. The teams everyone quote as failures are because they can’t draft past their first round pick and then they do nothing to support that first pick.

 

that’s why i think that if people say that then they don’t have faith in our management. It’s saying they don’t have faith they can surround a top pick with players. When you look at those franchises, that is their biggest flaws. They had horrible systems from the scouts up. Or they don’t listen to their scouts. 
 

Pittsburgh won how many Cups by tanking?

 

Five! They won Five cups. 
 

Lemieux draft was an ultimatum tank job, and the Crosby years. They were able to surround their players with supports enough to win the cup. 
 

Generational isn’t guaranteed, but the chances of a good to elite player gets heightened drafting in the top.

 

The problem with the Flames is they’ve not done a great job of finding an elite player outside of the first round. I don’t believe we have one elite player. Some are close.

 

Gaudreau is an elite skater with ok hockey sense and good passing abilities. Found late so it’s the only player we found outside that is bordering on elite.

 

Tkachuk is very good, but can’t take over a game so I don’t believe he is elite. 
 

Monahan has an elite release, but is injured a lot so he loses the rest. 
 

Bennett Blockchained up. 
 

but! The reason i would be confident in the flames tanking is that they have found players deep in drafts. They can find NHL players outside of the first round. 
 

Mangiapane, Gaudreau, Dube, Andersson, Kylington, Rittich, And maybe some up and coming players...

[travel_dude]

 

Calgary's tragic number is now 9.5, by the combination of CGY losses and MTL wins.  A MTL win over CGY reduces this by 2.

[Heartbreaker]

3 hours ago, cross16 said:

while this is fair, it’s really starting to look like the Leafs are the exception and not the norm. 
it happens, I just don’t think it’s the guaranteed success that many seem to argue. I think most teams wind up in worse shape than better. Comes down to a lot of luck and timing too. 

 

Yeah, I tend to agree with you. The Oilers are a pretty good example. In Edmonton they always talk about "five in seven!", and they almost matched it with draft picks. It wasn't really until this year that they've surpassed the Flames - and the only player that the Flames have that wasn't available to the Oilers is Sean Monohan. As for Matthews, well, I was living in Toronto at the time, and the whole thing felt really gross. 

The other thing that the Leafs have going for them is an influx of players that have always wanted to play there. The population in the region is huge compared to other Canadian centres, and unless you live in Quebec, you have had the option to watch the Leafs every Saturday night for your entire life. Whether we like it or not, the Leafs have by far the biggest fan base among Canadian hockey fans. Tavares was always going to land there, and I think that Brodie was always going to land there, too. There's a draw to playing for the Leafs that other teams really can't compete with. Jason Spezza and Joe Thornton play there for the league minimum for chrissakes - and I realize that's because they're competitive now, but those guys play in their bottom six. I would take those two at league minimum over anyone on our fourth line, up to two thirds of our third line, and anyone on our taxi squad. The Leafs are a Victor Hedman away from the cup... thankfully he's not from Southern Ontario. 

I do think that the Flames could have an inside track on Taylor Hall at some point, and if the Leafs fall out of contention, I could see Auston Matthews having an interest in playing in Arizona. I'm not trying to exaggerate the desire to play where you're from, but it can be a factor for some players, and a disproportionately large number of those players grew up cheering for the Leafs. 

Love.  

[Heartbreaker]

37 minutes ago, robrob74 said:

...

Generational isn’t guaranteed, but the chances of a good to elite player gets heightened drafting in the top.

...

Yeah, I think that this is the part that you have to keep in mind. If you look at round 1 of the 2014 draft, the Oilers selected Leon Draisaitl third overall. Reinhart and Bennett were both ranked higher, but they were thought to be "more of the same" in the mold of Ryan Nugent Hopkins. I think that he's absolutely the best player to come out of that round, and there are some good ones - Pastrnak, Larkin, Ekblad. 

Speaking of Nugent-Hopkins, do you think that he was the best player to come out of the 2011 draft? I don't. There were lots of misses in 2012, too - starting with first overall. The Flames would have selected the same players, and probably would have missed out on Draisaitl.

 

I think it really helps to have a few very high pedigree draft picks - but remember, Sam Bennett was projected to go first, and fell to the Flames at fourth. It's a crapshoot, Robbo. I think that you're absolutely right about development, and that the Flames haven't been very good in that department, but they are still dealing with 18-year-old hormonal teenage boys on the cusp of a huge payday. There are no guarantees at the top... with that all said, I'd really rather see the Flames pick third than fifteenth, but if tanking was the silver bullet, no one would ever win. 

Love.  

[sak22]

13 hours ago, Heartbreaker said:

 

I don't know, Man... The Leafs set out to tank the year that Auston Matthews went first overall. Lupul has a scraped knee? Better take him out of the lineup... JVR has hurt feelings? Better take him out, too, etc... 

The Leafs finished exactly where they wanted to, and they got their man. Of course, I would argue, that the Jets won the draft lottery that year because they jumped from something like 7th to 2nd. I realize that they've since traded the player, but I felt like they picked him with some integrity. They played to the end. 

Love. 

That is true, but they hired their guys to take them out of it with Lou and Babcock.  Up in Edmonton I don't think Pat Quinn took that job to tank and leave coaching for good, same with Renney, they just overestimated their team based on finishing close to the playoffs the 2 years before, so many call it a tank but you don't hire Quinn and sign the Bulin Wall as a message to finish last.

 

[robrob74]

40 minutes ago, sak22 said:

That is true, but they hired their guys to take them out of it with Lou and Babcock.  Up in Edmonton I don't think Pat Quinn took that job to tank and leave coaching for good, same with Renney, they just overestimated their team based on finishing close to the playoffs the 2 years before, so many call it a tank but you don't hire Quinn and sign the Bulin Wall as a message to finish last.

 

 

didnt they hire Fletcher to be a consultant at the time as well? They did a few smart things to do the tear down quickly. They amassed a bunch of picks and turned it around faster. Was like a re-rebuild as Burkie didn’t do the greatest job right away. 
 

they also had a few coveted pieces which now for us could equate to Gaudreau or Monahan. 

[travel_dude]

Magic number for Flames is 17.5 (CGY wins + MTL losses).

Tragic number is 9.5 (CGY losses + MTL wins)

Pretty tight.

We play Ottawa, while MTL has two against the Oilers.

And then, basically the last chance for us with 3 games in a row.

[cross16]

20 hours ago, robrob74 said:

 

but I think it’s not guaranteed success if your scouting and management suck. The teams everyone quote as failures are because they can’t draft past their first round pick and then they do nothing to support that first pick.

 

that’s why i think that if people say that then they don’t have faith in our management. It’s saying they don’t have faith they can surround a top pick with players. When you look at those franchises, that is their biggest flaws. They had horrible systems from the scouts up. Or they don’t listen to their scouts. 
 

Pittsburgh won how many Cups by tanking?

 

Five! They won Five cups. 
 

Lemieux draft was an ultimatum tank job, and the Crosby years. They were able to surround their players with supports enough to win the cup. 
 

Generational isn’t guaranteed, but the chances of a good to elite player gets heightened drafting in the top.

 

The problem with the Flames is they’ve not done a great job of finding an elite player outside of the first round. I don’t believe we have one elite player. Some are close.

 

Gaudreau is an elite skater with ok hockey sense and good passing abilities. Found late so it’s the only player we found outside that is bordering on elite.

 

Tkachuk is very good, but can’t take over a game so I don’t believe he is elite. 
 

Monahan has an elite release, but is injured a lot so he loses the rest. 
 

Bennett Blockchained up. 
 

but! The reason i would be confident in the flames tanking is that they have found players deep in drafts. They can find NHL players outside of the first round. 
 

Mangiapane, Gaudreau, Dube, Andersson, Kylington, Rittich, And maybe some up and coming players...

This is not a Flames problem. How many elite players can you name that were taken outside the fist round? Heck how many outside the top 4-5 picks?

 

For me the problem is not that the flames have failed to find an elite player outside the first round, it’s the opposite. The problem is they didn’t get elite players when they were rebuilding and drafting low. That is the reason you rebuild and target those draft picks. 
 

my point also is not that the flames shouldn’t rebuild because it’s tough, rather that a rebuild via tanking needs to be strategic. You have to target the right drafts, you need to have a certain level or prospects already in your organization and you need to have a certain amount of luck on your side too especially now. Simply saying we need to tank and then we’ll be good is too simplistic and ignores too many factors imo, which is why I don’t think it’s universally successful. 
 

I think the Flames are well positioned to rebuild now if they want, but they are not going to. 

[robrob74]

3 hours ago, cross16 said:

This is not a Flames problem. How many elite players can you name that were taken outside the fist round? Heck how many outside the top 4-5 picks?

 

For me the problem is not that the flames have failed to find an elite player outside the first round, it’s the opposite. The problem is they didn’t get elite players when they were rebuilding and drafting low. That is the reason you rebuild and target those draft picks. 
 

my point also is not that the flames shouldn’t rebuild because it’s tough, rather that a rebuild via tanking needs to be strategic. You have to target the right drafts, you need to have a certain level or prospects already in your organization and you need to have a certain amount of luck on your side too especially now. Simply saying we need to tank and then we’ll be good is too simplistic and ignores too many factors imo, which is why I don’t think it’s universally successful. 
 

I think the Flames are well positioned to rebuild now if they want, but they are not going to. 

 

ya, I agree and I don’t think I am wrong either. Considering they failed at the beginning, they did supplement it by drafting Johnny but still didn’t find the guy to help and thus needed to in later rounds. Some teams do, but maybe not the norm, but it would’ve been nice to draft a point, or a Josi, or a Kucherov. Just quick memories of players that were there on the board while we picked someone who didn’t show up in the NHL or for very long.

[MP5029]

On 4/18/2021 at 3:33 PM, robrob74 said:

 

ya, I agree and I don’t think I am wrong either. Considering they failed at the beginning, they did supplement it by drafting Johnny but still didn’t find the guy to help and thus needed to in later rounds. Some teams do, but maybe not the norm, but it would’ve been nice to draft a point, or a Josi, or a Kucherov. Just quick memories of players that were there on the board while we picked someone who didn’t show up in the NHL or for very long.

Well they drafted Bennett and then nearly ruined him..he’s starting to catch on in Fla...maybe the Flames need to put some faith and give their high picks a chance to play a meaningful role, but not here in Cgy nope..we will give Lucic, an again Backlund and Gio..oh how about Brewer or Neil..like seriously I did say many times over way back as far as Brewer and maybe past that..play our young guys up...Bennett should have been the #2 Ctr the season after that play off run when he was drafted...Backlund should have been the #3 but nope I was crazy today that and now look weheee we are lost our highest and back then potentially best pick in years for what? 
 

man Sutter has some serious work to do in just 2 years, hopefully he and BT can clear out this core and get a new good young and hungry core in the next 2 years? 

[bosn111]

Looks like the next 3 games, all against the Habs, could decide the Flames playoff dreams. 11 games remaining, 6 points back. A sweep of the next 3 games would tie up the points and make things very tight. Lose all 3 and they would be 12 points back with 8 remaining including 2 Oilers and 1 Jets game. Could essentially make the Canucks games moot.

[robrob74]

5 hours ago, MP5029 said:

Well they drafted Bennett and then nearly ruined him..he’s starting to catch on in Fla...maybe the Flames need to put some faith and give their high picks a chance to play a meaningful role, but not here in Cgy nope..we will give Lucic, an again Backlund and Gio..oh how about Brewer or Neil..like seriously I did say many times over way back as far as Brewer and maybe past that..play our young guys up...Bennett should have been the #2 Ctr the season after that play off run when he was drafted...Backlund should have been the #3 but nope I was crazy today that and now look weheee we are lost our highest and back then potentially best pick in years for what? 
 

man Sutter has some serious work to do in just 2 years, hopefully he and BT can clear out this core and get a new good young and hungry core in the next 2 years? 

 

 

I think that we can see the mandate when it comes to skilled players. They target a lot of skilled players that are good at a few things, yet not extraordinary at them. They make it to the NHL, but they're not game-breakers. We have a hard time finding players that are the same, but that have size. We love the bite and energy from Dube and Mangiapane, but imagine if they were a few inches taller, and how many pounds does that add? 

 

Right now, if the team were a boat, they'd tip to the left side because all of the mid6 are lefties. Imagine if they Dube and Mangiapane were righties? It would be great if Mang was because he's playing at a 2nd liner level (while I think he's the perfect 3rd liner). 

 

I am like you, they should have developed Bennett as a C. They could have played him there instead of Jankowski. 

[travel_dude]

36 minutes ago, bosn111 said:

Looks like the next 3 games, all against the Habs, could decide the Flames playoff dreams. 11 games remaining, 6 points back. A sweep of the next 3 games would tie up the points and make things very tight. Lose all 3 and they would be 12 points back with 8 remaining including 2 Oilers and 1 Jets game. Could essentially make the Canucks games moot.

 

Unless we win all 3 against MTL, there is no realistic way we can make the playoffs.

Sure, it's possible that MTL loses every game but those.

With VANcouver not winning anything but the 4 against us, they still don't make it.

We make the playoffs with 47 points (tied with MTL, but we have more RW's).

That would be INSANE.