20 21 season by series tracker

[bosn111]

Habs beat the Oilers, now an 8 point difference with Montreal still having a game in hand. Any hope of the playoffs are quickly fading. 
 

How long until we see players getting shutdown due to “nagging injuries” as the Flames admit the playoffs are out of reach? And who has been playing hurt and for how long?

[MP5029]

When do they hit the point where they are mathematically eliminated? It’s gotta be very close now? 

[bosn111]

11 games remaining means a possible 22 points, being 8 points behind means mathematically there is still a ways to go. If the Flames lose all 3 games this weekend to Montreal, they will be down 14 points with 8 games (16 points) available. Still not mathematically eliminated, but basically 0 chance they run the table and Montreal would have to lose every game, same with Vancouver.

 

If Flames win all 3 games , they will only be 2 points back and it will take longer to be mathematically eliminated, if at all.

 

Canucks are only 2 points back of the Flames with 6 games in hand. Their next 4 games are vs the Senators and the Flames and Canucks still have 4 head to head matches.

 

A statistical analysis would say the Flames are likely eliminated already, but I am not that good with stats to say for sure.

 

Monday night, we will either have a clearer picture, or a tighter race. We will see what happens this weekend.

[JTech780]

I have to be honest, my interest in this season is starting wane. 

 

I am still hopeful that they can sweep Montreal and get into the playoffs, but they haven't shown any kind of consistency to suggest that they can pull that off.

[travel_dude]

12 hours ago, bosn111 said:

Habs beat the Oilers, now an 8 point difference with Montreal still having a game in hand. Any hope of the playoffs are quickly fading. 
 

How long until we see players getting shutdown due to “nagging injuries” as the Flames admit the playoffs are out of reach? And who has been playing hurt and for how long?

 

If we lose all three to MTL, then we only have a possible 1 loss + 1 MTL OTL before we are done.

We win all three, then MTL has to win about 50% of their remaining games and we win the majority.

That doesn't even consider VAN, who is an unknown right now.

Beating TOR isn't a big feat.  It was beating an inconsistent team like the Flames.

But they have the opportunity to pass MTL with games in hand and sets against OTT and CGY.

 

There is no benefit to sitting players right now.  They have 5 months before next season starts.

It would need to be a major surgery to sit someone now.

 

 

[bosn111]

Flames pull 2 points closer.

[The_People1]

With 10-games to go, let's say we split the remaining 2 with Montreal. Split with Edmonton, lose to the Jets and Sens... I feel we can beat the Canucks 3 of 4.

 

That's 5-wins remaining for us and gets us to 53-points.  We need the Habs to go on a terrible streak here.  They only need 2.5-wins to make this realistically out of reach for us.

[travel_dude]

10 minutes ago, The_People1 said:

With 10-games to go, let's say we split the remaining 2 with Montreal. Split with Edmonton, lose to the Jets and Sens... I feel we can beat the Canucks 3 of 4.

 

That's 5-wins remaining for us and gets us to 53-points.  We need the Habs to go on a terrible streak here.  They only need 2.5-wins to make this realistically out of reach for us.

That's apretty conservative estimate.

EDM is running out of tough guys to play.

The first game is a B2B game for them.

They are playing the Jets, which is a 4 pointer for them.

They would wrather lose to us than WPG, so we get Koskinen.

The 2nd game will be a HNIC tilt.

 

The SENS game only matters if we win 4/5 before that.

Not impossible, since we have beaten both teams more than once.

With the Nucks series, I suspect you see MArkstrom if we are still in the race.

For all games.

 

MTL has a tough end of season.

Us x 2, Leafs, WPG, OTT x 2, Leafs x 2 and Oilers on the last 2 games of their season.

The Oilers won't be resting players going into the playoffs; they don't have effective depth to do it.

 

Not that I have any confidence, just that it's one of those crazy seasons.

Kinda like the year we drafted Tkachuk.

We win one too many or lose one too many and we miss out on a lotto pick.

Or like the year COL made the playoffs on the last day and smoked us in round 1.

[The_People1]

2 hours ago, travel_dude said:

That's apretty conservative estimate.

EDM is running out of tough guys to play.

The first game is a B2B game for them.

They are playing the Jets, which is a 4 pointer for them.

They would wrather lose to us than WPG, so we get Koskinen.

The 2nd game will be a HNIC tilt.

 

The SENS game only matters if we win 4/5 before that.

Not impossible, since we have beaten both teams more than once.

With the Nucks series, I suspect you see MArkstrom if we are still in the race.

For all games.

 

MTL has a tough end of season.

Us x 2, Leafs, WPG, OTT x 2, Leafs x 2 and Oilers on the last 2 games of their season.

The Oilers won't be resting players going into the playoffs; they don't have effective depth to do it.

 

Not that I have any confidence, just that it's one of those crazy seasons.

Kinda like the year we drafted Tkachuk.

We win one too many or lose one too many and we miss out on a lotto pick.

Or like the year COL made the playoffs on the last day and smoked us in round 1.

 

If we can go on a 8-2 run and the Habs finish 4-7...

 

It's possible we sweep the Canucks because they will have a congested end to their season schedule due to missed games.  I'm sure most of their team, psychologically speaking, probably just wants to pack their bags and go home.  I think they've had enough of this season.

 

After that, we have to win both Habs games and not let it go to OT.  If we can do that, and if we can finally beat the Sens for once... There's a path to the playoffs but all has to go right.

 

The Habs are playing some bad hockey right now so that certainly helps.

[travel_dude]

11 hours ago, The_People1 said:

 

If we can go on a 8-2 run and the Habs finish 4-7...

 

It's possible we sweep the Canucks because they will have a congested end to their season schedule due to missed games.  I'm sure most of their team, psychologically speaking, probably just wants to pack their bags and go home.  I think they've had enough of this season.

 

After that, we have to win both Habs games and not let it go to OT.  If we can do that, and if we can finally beat the Sens for once... There's a path to the playoffs but all has to go right.

 

The Habs are playing some bad hockey right now so that certainly helps.

 

I do think the path to the playoffs is easier now than a week ago.

Habs have a single game in hand.

 

One possibility I have thought about, but not sure it's possible is the Oilers getting bumped.

Flames go 8-2 as you suggest, beating MTL in the remaining games.

Habs go 4-7 with 2 wins against EDM.

EDM goes 0-11 with 5 losses to Nucks.

Nucks go 5-11.

 

That would mean CGY 59, MTL 58, EDM 57.

Oh how sweet that would be.

 

[bosn111]

Updated the post after the win

[The_People1]

This is getting interesting

[The_Tribal Chief]

The thing that im hoping is mtl cant handle all the game in a row they have to play cause it is alot have hopefully we can win and they lose alot more then they win with those game cause it is alot of games they have to play

[travel_dude]

Who would have throught there would be a three team race for the final spot.

VAN is making it interesting right now.

Their win percentage is 500, MTL is 533 and ours is 479

It's deceiving, though.

Tough schedule to finish the season.

 

Even if we win all 9 remaining games (1 x MTL and 4 x VAN), we are not guaranteed a spot.

MTL and VAN still finish aheah of us if they win all their other games.

That's a tall task for either team, so just win all your own games.

 

[bosn111]

6 points back again with 8 games remaining.

[travel_dude]

11 hours ago, bosn111 said:

6 points back again with 8 games remaining.

 

3 wins to tie MTL.

They lose all remaining games we are ahead of them.

VAN is a wild card though.

 

I don't hold much hope.

MTL wins and CGY losses adding up to 5.5 and we are done.

As early as May 3, we could be done.

MTL plays 4 games and we play 2 by then.

Realistically, we have to win 2 against EDM and MTL has to lose all 4.

 

Might as well evaluate some of the young players and sit Nesterov.

Buddy and Ritchie are what they are, so I don't think you need to evaluate them.

We could use functional toughness of Ritchie, so re-sign him.

Buddy seems to be incapable of playing at this level.

[robrob74]

1 hour ago, travel_dude said:

 

3 wins to tie MTL.

They lose all remaining games we are ahead of them.

VAN is a wild card though.

 

I don't hold much hope.

MTL wins and CGY losses adding up to 5.5 and we are done.

As early as May 3, we could be done.

MTL plays 4 games and we play 2 by then.

Realistically, we have to win 2 against EDM and MTL has to lose all 4.

 

Might as well evaluate some of the young players and sit Nesterov.

Buddy and Ritchie are what they are, so I don't think you need to evaluate them.

We could use functional toughness of Ritchie, so re-sign him.

Buddy seems to be incapable of playing at this level.

 

I guess you can't throw in the towel, but I would really like them to shut anyone down who is injured. It's obvious the culture in Calgary is to play through it. It's like that in hockey, but seems to be more so in Calgary, which is lead by Monahan. 

 

Possible injuries: Monahan, Tkachuk, and I wonder if Backlund is too. I don't want to give these guys excuses but I think that's the only way to describe the first two's play. I just wonder if there are any other injuries on the team. 

[travel_dude]

19 minutes ago, robrob74 said:

 

I guess you can't throw in the towel, but I would really like them to shut anyone down who is injured. It's obvious the culture in Calgary is to play through it. It's like that in hockey, but seems to be more so in Calgary, which is lead by Monahan. 

 

Possible injuries: Monahan, Tkachuk, and I wonder if Backlund is too. I don't want to give these guys excuses but I think that's the only way to describe the first two's play. I just wonder if there are any other injuries on the team. 

 

I guess what I was going on about was that we are are building to the future.

Even a 8-0 finish to the season doesn't guarantee us a playoff spot.

MTL only needs 5-3-1 to be ahead.

VAN needs 10-3-1 which is a tall order, and if we won all 8, then they can't pass us.

 

So, we have prospects that could be playing now, like Mackey and Kylington.

Or Ruzicka, Gawdin and Phillips that have excelled at the AHL level.

Not sure what the benefit is to have Nesterov and Buddy out there.

Is this BT's way of hiding the players from expansion?

 

[bosn111]

I think that the TDL was a good example of how Treliving is being expected to approach the season. The team needs to be expected to be playing for getting into the playoffs until they are officially eliminated. I am sure even then ownership will want the team to show that they “just missed” by playing as hard as they can.

 

 I don’t agree with this or think it should be this way, just what I feel ownership expects to see. Otherwise we would have seen more action at the TDL.

 

Just my thoughts.

[bigfaninlethbridge]

14 minutes ago, bosn111 said:

I think that the TDL was a good example of how Treliving is being expected to approach the season. The team needs to be expected to be playing for getting into the playoffs until they are officially eliminated. I am sure even then ownership will want the team to show that they “just missed” by playing as hard as they can.

 

 I don’t agree with this or think it should be this way, just what I feel ownership expects to see. Otherwise we would have seen more action at the TDL.

 

Just my thoughts.

you don't think that maybe it's because we overvalue our players?  we lucked out with bennet but it could very well be our ask for our players was higher than teams that were interested wanted to pay.  our problem is we know what these guys have done, but the question that the trade partners are asking is what have they done lately?

[travel_dude]

42 minutes ago, bosn111 said:

I think that the TDL was a good example of how Treliving is being expected to approach the season. The team needs to be expected to be playing for getting into the playoffs until they are officially eliminated. I am sure even then ownership will want the team to show that they “just missed” by playing as hard as they can.

 

 I don’t agree with this or think it should be this way, just what I feel ownership expects to see. Otherwise we would have seen more action at the TDL.

 

Just my thoughts.

 

28 minutes ago, bigfaninlethbridge said:

you don't think that maybe it's because we overvalue our players?  we lucked out with bennet but it could very well be our ask for our players was higher than teams that were interested wanted to pay.  our problem is we know what these guys have done, but the question that the trade partners are asking is what have they done lately?

 

We didn't have many bluechip players that fit the TDL mold of tradeable players.

Ritchie, Nordstrom, Simon, Leivo, Bennett, Rittich, Stone, Nesterov, Ryan.

We managed to get value on two expiring contracts; pretty good value.

 

It's possible that teams shied away from a 3-4th line C making 3m which at best would be 1.6m trade.

So many available options for teams.

Ryan was having a decent season, not a great one.

Decent on the dot, but only 2 goals and 7 assists.

Well down from last year.

 

The only trades we could have gotten a decent return on are ones you don't make at TDL.

Gio would have been a tough sell.

Not a trade we win at TDL.

[The_People1]

3 hours ago, bosn111 said:

I think that the TDL was a good example of how Treliving is being expected to approach the season. The team needs to be expected to be playing for getting into the playoffs until they are officially eliminated. I am sure even then ownership will want the team to show that they “just missed” by playing as hard as they can.

 

 I don’t agree with this or think it should be this way, just what I feel ownership expects to see. Otherwise we would have seen more action at the TDL.

 

Just my thoughts.

 

It's hard to trade core guys with term at the TDL.  Other teams are looking for rentals like the Taylor Hall types.  The Flames didn't really have a choice but to keep their core into the off season.

 

And it all depends how we play down the stretch.  If we pull off a miracle and make the playoffs then I think BT will keep the core together.  Otherwise, the big moves have to wait till the offseason when all teams have cap space and more flexibility.

[MP5029]

On 4/22/2021 at 2:06 AM, bosn111 said:

Habs beat the Oilers, now an 8 point difference with Montreal still having a game in hand. Any hope of the playoffs are quickly fading. 
 

How long until we see players getting shutdown due to “nagging injuries” as the Flames admit the playoffs are out of reach? And who has been playing hurt and for how long?

Hopefully soon, got a feeling there are a lot of them on the team this year?

[bigfaninlethbridge]

3 hours ago, travel_dude said:

 

 

We didn't have many bluechip players that fit the TDL mold of tradeable players.

Ritchie, Nordstrom, Simon, Leivo, Bennett, Rittich, Stone, Nesterov, Ryan.

We managed to get value on two expiring contracts; pretty good value.

 

It's possible that teams shied away from a 3-4th line C making 3m which at best would be 1.6m trade.

So many available options for teams.

Ryan was having a decent season, not a great one.

Decent on the dot, but only 2 goals and 7 assists.

Well down from last year.

 

The only trades we could have gotten a decent return on are ones you don't make at TDL.

Gio would have been a tough sell.

Not a trade we win at TDL.

Exactly.  We THINK our guys are worth more, but they aren't.  This is a horribly built team, how Treliving continues getting a free pass is beyond me, because he built a team that is terrible.   Had we traded JG 2 years ago before his shortcomings were made blatantly apparent we would have easily won a trade involving him.  Monahan too.  Giordano should have been traded right after winning the Norris to cash in on him, we all knew he was aging and it was downhill from there... but THEN somebody would have paid.  Now, no way.

[cross16]

4 hours ago, bosn111 said:

I think that the TDL was a good example of how Treliving is being expected to approach the season. The team needs to be expected to be playing for getting into the playoffs until they are officially eliminated. I am sure even then ownership will want the team to show that they “just missed” by playing as hard as they can.

 

 I don’t agree with this or think it should be this way, just what I feel ownership expects to see. Otherwise we would have seen more action at the TDL.

 

Just my thoughts.

 

It's been the operating model here for a good 20 years. They want the playoffs every year and won't give up until they are certain it's over. They didn't even ok the trading of Iginla/Jbow etc until that 12/13 season started they were hoping to be in the playoffs that year. It's how ownership operates the team. 

 

I don't think it's necessarily that the Flames overvalue their own players, I mean everyone does to a certain extent, it's more that you don't tend to "win" hockey trades because your looking for equal value. Typically the best way to maximize your assets is to trade current value for future value and bet on the potential for appreciation but if the mandate is to be in the playoffs every year that option might not be on the table.