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2022 playoff clinch tracker


bosn111

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10 minutes ago, The_People1 said:

 

No but, the NHL should send the doctor to the player for a full examination.  If not, then insurance companies should send a doctor.  General idea is, there should be third party review of injuries.

 

I know this could open a can of worms when it comes to teams keeping injuries secret. "Lower body injury" but want to hide the exact spot... With third party review, everyone will know the exact injury eventually.

 

But in the name of fairness and keeping teams honest with the cap, maybe this is the sacrifice that needs to be made.

 

If it's doctors reviewing doctors evaluation, there is zero chance the injury comes to light.  As it is, the NHL knows the injury status of every player on LTIR.  They don't repeat it.  You can't just tell the NHL he has a booboo.  I think you are bang on with the insurance companies review.  As much as I hate the idea of the vultures review, it's the only way to be sure, as it's an insurable injury.  They probably had to sign off on the Eichel surgery as it is.

 

Back to the present.  I can't imagine that other NHL teams will see the moves as good faith.  

 

And onto the Oilers.  They seem to be salivating at the guaranteed playoffs and the chance to run over an undermanned LA squad.  The Oilers magic number is 6.0, but the team plays 6 of 9 against playoff or bubble teams.  They are likely a lock to get another 6 points on the 3 non-playoff teams.  They have 5 home games left and 3 are against playoff or bubble teams.  LA has relatively easy schedules. LA only plays one game against a playoff team, but it's on the 2nd of a B2B.  VGK plays 4 non-playoff teams.  

 

It used to be that the East was tight, but this season, there is nobody battling for a WC spot there.  Not sure who I have hoping to fail more, EDM or Vegas.  EDM has as many 1st round wins as we do in the last decade.  And they didn't even win their play-in series.  Getting past anyone in the first round with the same two goalies as last year seems unlikely.  Vegas doesn't really deserve to get in, and the cap circumvention thing is real.  Magically, all of Smith, Brossoit, Carrier and Stone will be healthy.   

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3 minutes ago, travel_dude said:

 

If it's doctors reviewing doctors evaluation, there is zero chance the injury comes to light.  As it is, the NHL knows the injury status of every player on LTIR.  They don't repeat it.  You can't just tell the NHL he has a booboo.  I think you are bang on with the insurance companies review.  As much as I hate the idea of the vultures review, it's the only way to be sure, as it's an insurable injury.  They probably had to sign off on the Eichel surgery as it is.

 

Well, we already know team doctors are not honest.  Sometimes they tell guys to stay on IR until the playoffs per GM orders or, sometimes they drug their players with pain killers to get them back on the ice faster.  Having a third party review injuries (and not team doctor reports, like actually go see the patient), could help to standardize what is what so it's fair league-wide.

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6 minutes ago, travel_dude said:

It used to be that the East was tight, but this season, there is nobody battling for a WC spot there.  Not sure who I have hoping to fail more, EDM or Vegas.  EDM has as many 1st round wins as we do in the last decade.  And they didn't even win their play-in series.  Getting past anyone in the first round with the same two goalies as last year seems unlikely.  Vegas doesn't really deserve to get in, and the cap circumvention thing is real.  Magically, all of Smith, Brossoit, Carrier and Stone will be healthy.   

 

It would be nice if VGK makes the playoffs in the 8th spot and crosses over to the Central division.  VGK and DAL have a chance to knock off COL.

 

Unfortunately, VGK likely makes the playoffs at the expense of LAK and plays the Oilers first round.  I'd like to see a Flames/Oilers second round if possible but VGK should take out the Oilers first round.

 

I know getting ahead of myself.  Let's just make the playoffs first, then win the division.

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30 minutes ago, The_People1 said:

 

It would be nice if VGK makes the playoffs in the 8th spot and crosses over to the Central division.  VGK and DAL have a chance to knock off COL.

 

Unfortunately, VGK likely makes the playoffs at the expense of LAK and plays the Oilers first round.  I'd like to see a Flames/Oilers second round if possible but VGK should take out the Oilers first round.

 

I know getting ahead of myself.  Let's just make the playoffs first, then win the division.

 

Well, it depends on Dallas.  Can't really peg that team at all.

Could be out, with LA or Vegas in the WC2 spot.

Or the Oilers could plummet and take the WC1 or WC2 spot.

A LA-VGK series would be fun.

Prefer to let COL beat up on EDM in round 1.

We then only face the LA-VGK winner.

I think we can hang with Vegas, even with the reinforcements.

 

Too far ahead of course.  Want to see teams beat each other up over the remaining games.  

 

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I believe that the clinch number is down to 1.0 with the Vegas OTL.

Can Clinch as early as Thursday.

The Division clincher is down to 4.0 with the win and EDM loss.

They need a minimum of 5 wins out of 8 to get 100, which is basically a playoff spot.

They play NAS, VGK, DAL, COL and PIT, plus CBJ, SJS and VAN.

Tall task to win 5, but other teams chasing need to have basically perfect records to overtake them if they do. 

 

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Sadly it is officially 1.5 to Clinch playoffs still. With 2 OT loss by Calgary and Vegas win out, regulation wins would be tied, would go to ROW which Vegas would be ahead. However if Vegas loses even 1 game, or Flames win 1 then they clinch. So the number at this time is slightly complex depending on situation.

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10 minutes ago, bosn111 said:

Sadly it is officially 1.5 to Clinch playoffs still. With 2 OT loss by Calgary and Vegas win out, regulation wins would be tied, would go to ROW which Vegas would be ahead. However if Vegas loses even 1 game, or Flames win 1 then they clinch. So the number at this time is slightly complex depending on situation.

 

I'm not really counting 2 OTL as = 1.0 since it complicates things depending on who we lose to.

Vegas has 32 RW and CGY 40.  If Vegas wins out, we only need 1 RW to overtake them, right?

Vegas also has 36 ROW and CGY 43.  

They would have 40 and us 41.  Magic number of 1 is simplistic.  

 

So, the more simple thing to say is we are one win away from clinching.  

When you get into tie-breaking scenarios, we lose to Vegas in total wins (tie breaker 4).

Simple is win, you're in.

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On 4/12/2022 at 1:16 AM, conundrumed said:

Stone has been practicing with the 1st PP unit, so the 14 day stint thing would be total sketch. This entire sitch is total sketch, they're already running an $82,500 cap next year with only 10 forwards.

For the record, I don't like Vegas, but it could be any team. This pervasive cap manipulation and throwing away contracts (MAF) is really eroding it's way to becoming a mainstream thing to do. Because the managers won't stop it. Why would they? So now your managers meetings become a joke. The whole using LTIR cash (for guys you know are returning during this season) to make trades needs to get sewn up. Or address a playoff cap. It's only just beginning and potentially starts running rampant.

 


i think they said 11 teams were over the cap last year in the playoffs and so it wasn’t just a TB thing. While Tampa may have been pretty high over the cap though.

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8 minutes ago, robrob74 said:


i think they said 11 teams were over the cap last year in the playoffs and so it wasn’t just a TB thing. While Tampa may have been pretty high over the cap though.

 

Cap doesn't exist during the playoffs.  That's not the issue.  It's hiding players on LTIR to get to the playoffs that stands out.  Tampa was iffy, but Kucherov was a lot closer to having a legit reason.  By rights, if a player needed to go to LTIR for a month, they should have been forced to do it at the time, not do it to manage cap.  It's all legal, but only if every player on LTIR is valid.  Vegas will swear on a stack of bibles (from the Wedding Chapel and Strip Club) that they followed the CBA. 

 

I don't care for Vegas, but this is a loophole that was exploited.  Doesn't matter who.  If it's 100% valid, then sucks for the rest of the teams.  If they don't make the playoffs, they face a host of cap problems next season.

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14 minutes ago, travel_dude said:

 

Cap doesn't exist during the playoffs.  That's not the issue.  It's hiding players on LTIR to get to the playoffs that stands out.  Tampa was iffy, but Kucherov was a lot closer to having a legit reason.  By rights, if a player needed to go to LTIR for a month, they should have been forced to do it at the time, not do it to manage cap.  It's all legal, but only if every player on LTIR is valid.  Vegas will swear on a stack of bibles (from the Wedding Chapel and Strip Club) that they followed the CBA. 

 

I don't care for Vegas, but this is a loophole that was exploited.  Doesn't matter who.  If it's 100% valid, then sucks for the rest of the teams.  If they don't make the playoffs, they face a host of cap problems next season.

It's too bad we're in their division because they'll be giving away players like free candy again.

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The more you look at this playoff picture the more it appears it should stand as is. NSH has the hardest road but really  any of the teams in a playoff spot need only to play 500 hockey to secure a spot. Van needs to run the table and hope someone Satoshi Nakamotos the bed, Vegas needs to go on about a 70% winning, Vegas's best odds are catching LA. The magic number for cut off in the Pacific should be 96 points. 

LA needs to go 4-3 to get to 96

EDM needs to go 3-5 to get to 96

Vegas needs to go 5-1-1 to get to 96 

If Vegas can go 6-2 they may jump someone they have to play over 70% win percentage to do so

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2 hours ago, tmac70 said:

The more you look at this playoff picture the more it appears it should stand as is. NSH has the hardest road but really  any of the teams in a playoff spot need only to play 500 hockey to secure a spot. Van needs to run the table and hope someone Satoshi Nakamotos the bed, Vegas needs to go on about a 70% winning, Vegas's best odds are catching LA. The magic number for cut off in the Pacific should be 96 points. 

LA needs to go 4-3 to get to 96

EDM needs to go 3-5 to get to 96

Vegas needs to go 5-1-1 to get to 96 

If Vegas can go 6-2 they may jump someone they have to play over 70% win percentage to do so

If EDM ended up with 96, I think they might be looking from the outside.

They play a lot of playoff/bubble teams (5).

Vegas has a slightly easier schedule, in that they play STL on the last night.

STL will probably rest a few regulars.

LA plays a lot of non-playoff teams. with their toughest game tonight.

They have another B2B of SET/VAN.

I would almost expect them to hit 98.

The teams like Dallas and Nashville are likely both to get in.

Dallas plays 5 non-playoff teams.

Nashville has a tougher schedule, but has been playing well.

 

I'm not saying EDM gets ousted, but it's not set in stone either.

Their only impressive games recently were a SO loss to AVS (who played the night before), STL (who spotted them 4 in the first period with Binnington looking bad) and the LA Kings x 2.  More questions about goaltending and defense.  They play fast and generate a lot of shots, but it seems to be the same looks every time.  If you shut down McDavid, you win 9/10 times.

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1 hour ago, travel_dude said:

If EDM ended up with 96, I think they might be looking from the outside.

They play a lot of playoff/bubble teams (5).

Vegas has a slightly easier schedule, in that they play STL on the last night.

STL will probably rest a few regulars.

LA plays a lot of non-playoff teams. with their toughest game tonight.

They have another B2B of SET/VAN.

I would almost expect them to hit 98.

The teams like Dallas and Nashville are likely both to get in.

Dallas plays 5 non-playoff teams.

Nashville has a tougher schedule, but has been playing well.

 

I'm not saying EDM gets ousted, but it's not set in stone either.

Their only impressive games recently were a SO loss to AVS (who played the night before), STL (who spotted them 4 in the first period with Binnington looking bad) and the LA Kings x 2.  More questions about goaltending and defense.  They play fast and generate a lot of shots, but it seems to be the same looks every time.  If you shut down McDavid, you win 9/10 times.

I humbly disagree but to each his own. Vegas needs to win 5.5 games out of the 8 to hit 96 points, The Coilers need to win 3 out of the next 8 to get to 96.  Vancover needs to win 7 of 8, The only way EDM flaters is if they fall flat on their face and go 2 out of 8, which I would love to see. Vegas may catch LA or dive into a wild card spot but their best chance is a top 3 in the pacific

 

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It feels like VGK should be able to hit between 95-to-97-points after all is said and done.  VGK has a tougher schedule to end their season so that's one obstacle they have to overcome.  But otherwise, they are getting healthy and playing well at the right time.

 

Oilers just need to maintain .500 hockey to hit 98-points so it's doable.

 

LAK needs at least 4 wins in final 7 games to hit 96 and give themselves a chance.  They are the wildcard, literally. They lost Doughty for the season so it could go very badly down the stretch for them.  Wouldn't be surprised to see them go 2-4-1 to end their season and miss the playoffs.

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1 hour ago, tmac70 said:

I humbly disagree but to each his own. Vegas needs to win 5.5 games out of the 8 to hit 96 points, The Coilers need to win 3 out of the next 8 to get to 96.  Vancover needs to win 7 of 8, The only way EDM flaters is if they fall flat on their face and go 2 out of 8, which I would love to see. Vegas may catch LA or dive into a wild card spot but their best chance is a top 3 in the pacific

 

 

It's what I am seeing.

Last two games against tough opponents, McD held off the scoreboard.

NAS, VGK (healthy), DAL, COL and PITTS are not easy outs.

The final two are B2B.

 

I'm just saying that 3 teams are playing for 2 spots, with the WC being very remote.

You can probably chock up CBJ game as a win, along with one of SJS or VAN.

The rest of this week will determine if the Oilers are more than a beat easy/tired teams team.

They beat NAS or COL, then that is something.

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With LA losing last night, clinch magic number is now .5 since LA can only hit 100 points and Flames win tie via Regulation Wins. A win tonight against Vegas, or any win going forward, would guarantee top 2 in the Pacific division. Still some work to do to clinch the division.

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1 hour ago, bosn111 said:

With LA losing last night, clinch magic number is now .5 since LA can only hit 100 points and Flames win tie via Regulation Wins. A win tonight against Vegas, or any win going forward, would guarantee top 2 in the Pacific division. Still some work to do to clinch the division.

 

Sutter said the other day 100 gets you in, which is exactly the case today.

2 wins and 2 EDM losses would sew the division up this week.

I like that idea, but not sure of the other implications it sets up.

Other than:

VGK would be 87

NAS would be 91

We would be 103

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No change in the magic numbers for Calgary.


Colorado only needs 2 points to clinch the Western conference. Will they rest players to be ready for playoffs or keep up intensity?

 

Vegas, Vancouver, and Winnipeg can still numerically make the playoffs so the race remains tight.
 

In the east, it is almost complete for who is in the playoffs, magic numbers for Boston and Washington are .5 and 2 respectively, just need to determine final position. Lots of ability to move around.

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