bosn111 Posted March 26, 2022 Report Share Posted March 26, 2022 I know others on here are better at this than I am, especially making tables that are easily updated. With 18 games remaining in the regular season, I figured I would start this thread. Flames currently have 86 points in 64 games. Vegas is currently first spot out of the playoffs at 74 in 67 and Winnipeg second out with 72 in 66. So currently if both teams win out the season, they can each hit 104 points. This means the Flames need a 19 point differential to clinch a playoff spot. LA and Edmonton can each hit 111 points by winning out the season, so the Flames need a 26 point differential to clinch first in the division. Statistically the Flames have a better chance at both, but I don’t feel like doing the more in depth math lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
travel_dude Posted March 26, 2022 Report Share Posted March 26, 2022 I haven't seen the usual tables anywhere. The magic number is the one that I have seen. Pat Steinberg @Fan960Steinberg · 13h Magic number update!! #Flames into the single digits. With a 4-2 win over Arizona on Friday, Calgary’s magic number is down to 9.5. CGY wins or VGK/WPG regulation losses drop the number by 1. OT/SO losses on either side by 0.5. At zero, a playoff spot is clinched. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bosn111 Posted March 27, 2022 Author Report Share Posted March 27, 2022 After the win tonight, it is now 17 points to clinch playoffs and 24 to clinch the division. So in baseball format that is 8.5 and 12 games respectively. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_People1 Posted March 31, 2022 Report Share Posted March 31, 2022 96-points usually does it every year but with a weaker Conference this time around, maybe 92/93 will get it done (and ironically enough, the 9th best team in the Eastern Conference might not even get 85-poonts). I've got to think 4-wins more and we're in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
travel_dude Posted March 31, 2022 Report Share Posted March 31, 2022 44 minutes ago, The_People1 said: 96-points usually does it every year but with a weaker Conference this time around, maybe 92/93 will get it done (and ironically enough, the 9th best team in the Eastern Conference might not even get 85-poonts). I've got to think 4-wins more and we're in. I think the magic number is still 8.5, though I don't know if the LA SOL made any difference. Vegas won last 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Tribal Chief Posted March 31, 2022 Report Share Posted March 31, 2022 First Step is beating La tonight they are below us we win we make is less Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
travel_dude Posted March 31, 2022 Report Share Posted March 31, 2022 Without any impact of the other teams in the West, we go 8-7-1 and we clinch. That gets us to 105 points and pretty good chance at winning the division. That is also the current magic number of 8.5. EDM would need to go 12-2-0 to hit 105. LA would need to go 11-1-1 to hit 105. Vegas can only get to 104 with a 13-0-0 record. If we can't go 8-7-1 then we shouldn't be in the playoffs, even if we make it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robrob74 Posted April 2, 2022 Report Share Posted April 2, 2022 I’m getting a little concerned about the frequency of their off play. It’s becoming a trend again. I’d count about 3 or 4 games out of the last 5 or 6 where they’ve not come to play, or not having a good game. Do we chalk it up to not playing against “inferior” teams, not getting up for them, looking past them? I feel it was a fine game against Colorado. It’s almost like they think they’re in already and don’t have to do the work anymore. Why can’t they just play? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robrob74 Posted April 2, 2022 Report Share Posted April 2, 2022 On 3/31/2022 at 12:34 PM, travel_dude said: Without any impact of the other teams in the West, we go 8-7-1 and we clinch. That gets us to 105 points and pretty good chance at winning the division. That is also the current magic number of 8.5. EDM would need to go 12-2-0 to hit 105. LA would need to go 11-1-1 to hit 105. Vegas can only get to 104 with a 13-0-0 record. If we can't go 8-7-1 then we shouldn't be in the playoffs, even if we make it. we are starting to play at that pace. In the last 7 game stretch we are 3-2-2 if we go 7 game series as a barometer. 8 points out of a possible 14. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_People1 Posted April 2, 2022 Report Share Posted April 2, 2022 Looking at the Wildcard race, it looks like all of DAL, VGK, and NAS can reasonably reach 96-points. So 7.5 points sounds about right to clinch a playoff spot. It also looks like VAN is eliminated. They have to win out to hit 99-points and that's unlikely to happen. WPG needs 20-points with 13-games remaining... also mission impossible. Even VGK looking like 30% chance to make it since they played the most games and barely hanging onto the 8th spot. Too bad for them they cannot activate some of their star players off IR to help them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bosn111 Posted April 5, 2022 Author Report Share Posted April 5, 2022 Florida is the First team to clinch a playoff spot. Colorado is close, and in reality has clinched just not mathematically official yet. They have 104 points (Vegas maximum) but Dallas can hit 109 and are first team out of playoffs. LA can hit 106 and Edmonton can hit 109. I know realistically those numbers won’t happen, but it is the way the NHL goes about calling clinched or not. ( See Florida) Based on the tight race, the numbers to clinch playoffs and Division are very close for Calgary. 13 points (6.5 games) for playoffs (see Vegas), 18 points (9 games) for the Division title (See Edmonton). Flames have 2 games against Seattle, 1 against Arizona (both mathematically eliminated already), 1 Winnipeg, 1 Vancouver, 1 Anaheim, 1 San Jose, 2 Nashville, 1 Minnesota, 1 Chicago, 1 Vegas, 1 Dallas. (Not in order) The Vegas game may be the most important of them all based on Standings. Vegas is 4th in the division, so as long as the Flames remain ahead of them, they make playoffs ahead of Wildcard spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
travel_dude Posted April 5, 2022 Report Share Posted April 5, 2022 Clinch division 9.5 - combo of CGY wins and EDM losses. Clinch playoffs - 7.0 - combo of Flames wins and Vegas losses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_People1 Posted April 5, 2022 Report Share Posted April 5, 2022 I just looked at the VGK schedule. They play VAN 3 times in next 4 games and generally has an easy path to the end of the season. No one should be surprised if they go 8-3-0 down the stretch. https://www.nhl.com/goldenknights/schedule/2022-04-05/PT/list Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
travel_dude Posted April 5, 2022 Report Share Posted April 5, 2022 31 minutes ago, The_People1 said: I just looked at the VGK schedule. They play VAN 3 times in next 4 games and generally has an easy path to the end of the season. No one should be surprised if they go 8-3-0 down the stretch. https://www.nhl.com/goldenknights/schedule/2022-04-05/PT/list They have 7 games I would call difficult. CGY, EDM, WAS, DAL, CHI, STL. CHI will be a tough game due to the B2B on the road. I would add that the NJ game could be anything from a VGK blowout to a NJ blowout. There's really just 4 easy games. LA has EDM, MIN, COL, and a lot of games against weaker opponents like ANA, VAN, SEA, CHI, and CBJ. EDM has 7 tough games remaining. The spread between 2nd and 4th is very small. 4 points, and games played is almost even. LA is in the drivers seat, but need to beat EDM to stay there. A loss by EDM to SJS and LA put them in a huge hole. It gets harder for the next 6 games. Those are make or break it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bosn111 Posted April 7, 2022 Author Report Share Posted April 7, 2022 Flames win, Knights lose. Max points for Oilers remains 109 but Knights are now down to 102. So being at 93 points Flames are 9/10 points from clinching playoffs and 16/17 from clinching the division depending on tie breakers. Colorado has clinched a playoff spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
travel_dude Posted April 7, 2022 Report Share Posted April 7, 2022 Another way to look at it: I believe playoff magic number down to 5.0 That is any combination of CGY wins and Vegas losses = 5 Division clincher down to 8.5. That is any combination of CGY wins and EDM losses = 8.5 (OTL or SOL = 0.5). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bosn111 Posted April 8, 2022 Author Report Share Posted April 8, 2022 After last night the Flames now need 7 points to clinch a playoff spot (they hold the tie breaker for regulation wins over Vegas, 9 reg wins ahead with Knights having 9 games remaining) meaning 3.5 games. Down to 14 points to clinch Division over Edmonton (again tie breaker goes to Calgary, 5 reg wins ahead with Oilers only having 10 games remaining) so 7.0 games. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
travel_dude Posted April 8, 2022 Report Share Posted April 8, 2022 I believe playoff magic number down to 4.0 That is any combination of CGY wins and Vegas losses = 4 Division clincher down to 7.5. That is any combination of CGY wins and EDM losses = 7.5 (OTL or SOL = 0.5). At least we have been winning to keep the gap going and get closer to clinching. Tkachuk feels it's too close and is not taking it lightly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bosn111 Posted April 8, 2022 Author Report Share Posted April 8, 2022 Thank you for adding in TD. I think your numbers are half game high due to tie breaker. As long as Flames end up with equal points to Edmonton and Vegas, they win the tie breaker based on more regulation wins. Getting that extra point would be nice, but is unnecessary to clinch. I could be wrong though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_People1 Posted April 8, 2022 Report Share Posted April 8, 2022 Coyotes in VGK will be interesting because one team has no reason to exist while the other team has to win no matter what. Seems primed for an upset. I just like how the whole world is cheering against VGK because one more loss and the rest of the Conference breathes easier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
travel_dude Posted April 8, 2022 Report Share Posted April 8, 2022 48 minutes ago, bosn111 said: Thank you for adding in TD. I think your numbers are half game high due to tie breaker. As long as Flames end up with equal points to Edmonton and Vegas, they win the tie breaker based on more regulation wins. Getting that extra point would be nice, but is unnecessary to clinch. I could be wrong though. Well if EDM got 3 wins and the rest losses and we failed to win a single game, we would be tied. Can really say the 2nd formula make sense then. By the 2nd formula, we would need an OTL or SOL to clinch the division. But only if Vegas lost at least 4 games due to the first formula. I suspect that the Who part changes as the lead changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bosn111 Posted April 9, 2022 Author Report Share Posted April 9, 2022 Sorry my math was slightly off. There are only a couple of situations where Edmonton could overtake Calgary for the regulation wins tie breaker, it involves the Flames losing almost all remaining games in overtime. Edmonton needs to win 6 games in regulation of their final 10 games to pass the Flames for that tie breaker. Flames are currently 5 regulation wins up. In the case that the Flames went 0-5-6 in the final 11, they would end up tied and oilers would win tie breaker. For Vegas, they would need to win out their last 9 games with Flames not winning another game in Regulation to tie the regulation wins tie-breaker. So to create a tie situation, Flames would need to lose 7 in overtime and lose 4 outright for that situation to even come into play. Even 1 game going to overtime or lost in regulation and Vegas could no longer win that tie breaker. So officially possible, but really unlikely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
travel_dude Posted April 10, 2022 Report Share Posted April 10, 2022 I believe playoff magic number down to 3.0 That is any combination of CGY wins and Vegas losses = 3 Division clincher down to 6.0. That is any combination of CGY wins and EDM losses = 6.0 (OTL or SOL = 0.5). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmac70 Posted April 10, 2022 Report Share Posted April 10, 2022 I am going to go out on a limb and predict CGY wins the division. The Coilers will finish 2nd and I belive Vegas 3rd and LGK get the 8th and final spot. As much as it would the best series to watch if Vegas and Colorado played the first round, I just have a gut feeling that Vegas slids in to the 3rd spot. COL- LA CGY- NSH ST LOUIS- MINNY COILERS-VEGAS I see COL,CGY,VEGAS and BLUES Coming out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redfire11 Posted April 10, 2022 Report Share Posted April 10, 2022 6 minutes ago, tmac70 said: COL- LA CGY- NSH ST LOUIS- MINNY COILERS-VEGAS I see COL,CGY,VEGAS and BLUES Coming out. COL- Dal CGY- NSH ST LOUIS- MINNY COILERS-Cannuts I see COL,CGY, Coilers and BLUES Coming out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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