2020-2021 Fantastical Offseason: You be the GM

[ABC923]

Just throwing out a hypothetical scenario, assuming the season is over.  Given revenues will drop, I think it is safe to assume the cap will drop as well subject to negotiation.  So for the purposes of this exercise, let's assume a cap ceiling of 78M (~5% decrease), but with the league offering a one time compliance buy-out, which we would obviously use on Lucic.  The current cap situation is 58.445M committed next season under these circumstances, with 8 forwards, 4 defense and 1 goalie signed, which would leave just over 19.5M to sign 6 forwards, 3 defense, and a goalie.

 

Current RFAs: Jankowski, Mangiapane, Kylington

Current UFAs: Talbot, Stone, Gustafsson, Forbort, Hamonic, Brodie, Rinaldo, Rieder

 

The big questions I have for you.

1) What do you pay Mangiapane next season?

2) Pick 3 or fewer current UFAs to bring back.  What do you pay them?

3) Pick one player from the current roster you trade, and for what (specifics not needed, could be draft picks, forward help, defense, etc)

4) Pick one (and only one) UFA to pursue from elsewhere, who will bring in a contract of at least 5M per season.

5) Who's the coach next season?

 

Bonus question: Do we let Janko walk for free?

 

Curious to see your answers!

[Thebrewcrew]

 

1. Mangiapane signs for 3-3.25 on a 2 or 3 year deal

 

2. UFA's- Talbot, Lucic if he's bought out, I would imagine they sign him to a cheaper deal. Then I would try on Brodie to keep him, if not then Gustafson

 

3. I still think we see a substantial trade to shake things up. This is the summer where you make your decision on Gaudreau, you either trade him because the receiving team would get two seasons out of him, after the season starts his value drops massively, or you keep him and prepare for him to leave. I think either 13 or 23 are out the door this summer, in what will be a hockey trade

 

 

4. There aren't any UFA I like for a deal north of 5 mill, but I'll bite, Taylor Hall. The Flames offer him a massive deal to come to his hometown, and to be one of the faces of the franchise, with a new building on the horizon. 9.5x7

 

5. I really hope the Flames owners unstitch their wallets and commit to paying a top tier, proven coach. Laviolette or Gallant. BT needs to push for this, as it will be his last coaching hire in Calgary.

 

 

Jankowski will be non-tendered

[cross16]

1) My ideal for Mangiapane would be a 4 year deal at 3.5 Mil AAV give or take. If he is pushing for more then a 2 year deal just under 3AAv would be my counter. I'm not interested in 3 years as it walks him to UFA. 

2) Hard to answer the UFA questions because it all depends on the contract. the only one I really want back is Brodie but I suspect he is gone. If Gustafsson would take a 2 year deal at less than 4mill AAV I would consdier it but anymore and i'm not interested. If Forbot wants a 1 year deal i'm interested but not in term. While i'm not against brining Talbot back I would only do another 1 year deal and he may be shopping for more. 

I'd like to see Quine and Robinson back but could see Quine wanting to move on. 

3) I don't really 'want" to trade him necessarily but the player i would be putting out there the most to gauge interest is Monahan. Target would be a better skating center or an upside winger. 

4) If we are talking pure fantasy here, Alex Pietrangelo is my favorite FA out there. 

5) Honest opinion? Geoff Ward

 

Bonus: If it came to it yes. I still think someone will give you a late round pick for Janko but if the cap drops they'll have to non tender

[sak22]

1) Ideally I'd want 4 in the 3-4 million range

2) Depends on what happens with the cap, but I'd go with Talbot and Gustafsson if both can be signed for less term.

3) Without a trade request I don't believe any big guys go, my guess is someone like Hanifin, I think he's been out there a bit this season.  Despite the 2 vs. 1 year left on the contract I don't think its the year to trade Gaudreau because I think him coming off a down year and poor playoff teams will be lowballing, if you can get him back in the 80-100 point range next year I think you can still get a bidding war.

4) I was all aboard the Hall train before, but I'd only go for 5 years under 10.  If Talbot is leaving I would look towards a Lehner, either way IMO I don't believe Rittich is a #1A so we should get someone but I don't know how the market will play out and the only ones I like available are Talbot and Lehner.

5) I want Gallant, but I expect Ward

 

I say if the cap drops with no compliance buy-out Janko walks, if it drops with a Lucic buyout I think he is given his last chance.

[ABC923]

Here are my answers:

 

1) Agree with you guys, 4 years at 3.5 million sounds right.

2) Brodie (If he can be had for close to his current value, maybe 4x5), Forbort/Gustafsson for similar salaries to what they make currently on a 2-3 year deal (Only want Gus if Brodie leaves, otherwise Forbort is a good replacement for Hamonic), Talbot if the price is similar to this season (not sure we could afford much more)

3) I'd trade Johnny if we can get an elite prospect or equal talent coming back.  Same goes for Mony.

4) This one is the toughest for me, since it will depend on the first few questions what our needs are.  I'll go with Hall, assuming one of Johnny or Mony are moved.

5) Hoping for Gallant.

 

Janko probably walks if we have any cap concerns at all.  Maybe trade his rights for a late round pick.

[The_People1]

Pierre McGuire believes the NHL salary cap could drop 25% to 40% for next season.  That would be monster!

 

https://pittsburghhockeynow.com/mcguire-says-salary-cap-could-be-reduced-by-40-pittsburgh-penguins/

[redfire11]

1 hour ago, The_People1 said:

Pierre McGuire believes the NHL salary cap could drop 25% to 40% for next season.  That would be monster!

 

https://pittsburghhockeynow.com/mcguire-says-salary-cap-could-be-reduced-by-40-pittsburgh-penguins/

If the salary cap dropped by 40%

Players would have to take a salary reduction something like;

8m + - 40%

6m - 8m - 30%

4m - 6m -20%

2m - 4m -10%

1m - 2m -5%

 

That would put the Flames at (with this years roster no trades) at around $58m

[The_People1]

2 hours ago, redfire11 said:

If the salary cap dropped by 40%

Players would have to take a salary reduction 

 

But that's the thing, do they?

 

When the cap goes up 5% they don't all get 5% increases.

[cross16]

NHL has guaranteed contracts so the league would not be able to unilaterally lower salaries without some type of consent/negotiation. Big a pretty big carrot the NHL would have to dangle to the PA and the players to get them to be ok with that. 

 

I think it's highly unlikely you will see that large a drop in the cap. 

[The_People1]

9 minutes ago, cross16 said:

NHL has guaranteed contracts so the league would not be able to unilaterally lower salaries without some type of consent/negotiation. Big a pretty big carrot the NHL would have to dangle to get them to agree to that.

 

I think it's highly unlikely you will see that large a drop in the cap. 

 

Yups.

 

Last I read, the league risks to lose $350-mil if the season is lost.  The salary cap is calculated based on that so, we looking at 10% drop for starters.  I would imagine.  But let's not kid ourselves, even a 5% drop would devastate 75% of the teams.

[cross16]

7 minutes ago, The_People1 said:

 

Yups.

 

Last I read, the league risks to lose $350-mil if the season is lost.  The salary cap is calculated based on that so, we looking at 10% drop for starters.  I would imagine.  But let's not kid ourselves, even a 5% drop would devastate 75% of the teams.

 

almost half of the teams in the league already have 70 Mill or more committed to next year. So yes even a 5% drop is rough. https://www.spotrac.com/nhl/cap/2020/

 

The current year salary cap is based on revenue, but the next season involves projections (why the league has escrow). So a big drop in revenue this year does not necessarily provide the starting point for the cap next year. That's why this is going to be tricky and involve a negotiation. Lots to consider.  

[robrob74]

I am guessing that it's a different issue, and that it's not part of it, but what about Escrow? Don't they give back when the income doesn't match the cap? I dunno.

 

I mean, has anyone seen the Panarin story that he won't play if he has to take a big discount? I mean, even if he had to play for 5M I calculated, it would take me more than 50 years to make that as a teacher. My highest salary at the moment will be just over 80K. 

 

If they can't take a cut, then they're ridiculous. Most of the people everywhere are losing their jobs and businesses and restaurants are having to close.

[sak22]

The real questions

1) Will next season begin in October?

2) Will fans be able to attend?

3) When will they pull the plug on this season?  97% of fans will put an asterisk on any Stanley Cup awarded if it happened this summer, so whats the point.

[The_People1]

3 hours ago, cross16 said:

 

almost half of the teams in the league already have 70 Mill or more committed to next year. So yes even a 5% drop is rough. https://www.spotrac.com/nhl/cap/2020/

 

The current year salary cap is based on revenue, but the next season involves projections (why the league has escrow). So a big drop in revenue this year does not necessarily provide the starting point for the cap next year. That's why this is going to be tricky and involve a negotiation. Lots to consider.  

 

So next year's cap will be based on next year's projected revenue?  And this year's revenue will have no effect?

[cross16]

14 hours ago, robrob74 said:

I am guessing that it's a different issue, and that it's not part of it, but what about Escrow? Don't they give back when the income doesn't match the cap? I dunno.

 

Correct. League withholds a % of player's salary and either keeps it or gives it back depending on where revenues wind up at the end of the year as it has to be a 50/50 split. Last few years players have not been receiving their escrow back. 

 

12 hours ago, The_People1 said:

 

So next year's cap will be based on next year's projected revenue?  And this year's revenue will have no effect?

 

The current year revenue is the benchmark they use. However, the final number is negotiated based on whether or not escalator clauses are to be used. 

[cross16]

On this topic there has been some buzz that the cap will remain flat for next year. Lebrun disputes this but more of the reputable people are predicting a flat or close to it cap and not a massive drop

 

 

[The_People1]

2 hours ago, cross16 said:

On this topic there has been some buzz that the cap will remain flat for next year. Lebrun disputes this but more of the reputable people are predicting a flat or close to it cap and not a massive drop

 

 

 

"Recent call" yes, but the longer this drags out, the more it appears $350-mil will be lost.  And then next season may not begin on time (so probably reduced schedule/revenue).  

 

I'm biased though.  I want to see cap drop $10-million because the wreckage around the league would be glorious and entertaining.

[The_People1]

Byfuglien is UFA now.  Should we be interested?  I guess depends on costs assuming Brodie and Hamonic are goners.

 

 

[cross16]

Interesting part of that termination, Byfuglien left every single cent on the table. he walked away form all the money the Jets owed him on the contract. 

 

All the speculation right now is that he is either done with hockey, or needs to focus on other aspects of his life. 

[redfire11]

https://sports.yahoo.com/report-nba-and-players-association-agree-to-25-percent-pay-cuts-starting-may-15-191213500.html

[sak22]

3 hours ago, redfire11 said:

https://sports.yahoo.com/report-nba-and-players-association-agree-to-25-percent-pay-cuts-starting-may-15-191213500.html

The main difference here is that the NBA pays players bi-monthly year round where the NHL pays October-April meaning the NBA players are taking the cut whereas this is a period where the NHL would not be paying the players.  The NHL is the only league that does the escrow and is the most gate driven out of all major leagues, the players will be paying for lost revenue it just likely won't come with changes to the current contract structures.

[cross16]

There are ongoing discussions around the last payment owed to players as well. 

 

 

[cross16]

4 hours ago, redfire11 said:

https://sports.yahoo.com/report-nba-and-players-association-agree-to-25-percent-pay-cuts-starting-may-15-191213500.html

this is a very misleading headline. Players did not agree to a pay cut they agreed to withholding of payments in escrow, essentially adopting a similar system the NHL. Players will get their money back if the season resumes. 
 

 

[jjgallow]

 

1) What do you pay Mangiapane next season?

The only way I would consider keeping him is if we traded Gaudreau.

 

2) Pick 3 or fewer current UFAs to bring back.  What do you pay them?

I can't think of 3 to keep.   Brodie and Hamonic should be traded but failing that,if they stay, a lot less.

 

3) Pick one player from the current roster you trade, and for what (specifics not needed, could be draft picks, forward help, defense, etc)

Whoever put the one-player trade restriction in, I pick them         Failing that, Gaudreau.  For a Lot.  3 first rounders I would do.  Or world class prospects on D or in net.

 

4) Pick one (and only one) UFA to pursue from elsewhere, who will bring in a contract of at least 5M per season.

I don't see why we would want to purposely bring in a $5M contract that we don't have to.

 

5) Who's the coach next season?

Actually I like the current one.

[flames-fan-in-jets-land]

On 4/17/2020 at 3:13 PM, The_People1 said:

Byfuglien is UFA now.  Should we be interested?  I guess depends on costs assuming Brodie and Hamonic are goners.

 

 

If the opportunity came I would have to say no. Theres no arguing he could bring a part of the game no one else can plus being a great teammate, but he is pushing 36 years old. Not saying he couldnt contribute but it would reek of another reclaimation project. Plus popular opinion around here is he just didnt enjoy the game anymore. Personally I think he hangs them up unless someone grossly overpays him or another year or two.

 

Fun fact: I was second row from the glass in the corner for a game and to see and hear one of his hits from up close was nothing like I've seen/heard before.