Burn it Down?

[JTech780]

38 minutes ago, jjgallow said:

 

I agree, we're not going to get as much for Gaudreau now as we would have earlier.   Maybe at the trade deadline, or maybe as a package deal where we throw in more.

 

I thought Cater Hard would be a pretty nice catch.   Some one here are opposed to it lol, I think you're right that the greater issue is Philly would be opposed to it.

 

However, hart's had a rough season and if that continues for another month, things could change.  

 

buy low sell high

 

 

Wingers just generally don't have a ton of trade value regardless, even if we were trading him at his peak value, I don't think it would be much different than the value I stated.

[robrob74]

5 hours ago, travel_dude said:

 

Provide an example of a trade that provides us with sufficient return to make this work.

Capped teams can't offer us enough.

Player for player is unlikely as there are few that provide the value of a $6.75m deal with term.

Sorry but a couple of 1st from a contender doesn't cut it.

Brady Tkachuk for Gaudreau might be something realistic, but not from Ottawa's perspective.

He would be gone after his contract ended.

 

Much more realistic that they move on from Bennett, Backlund, and Gio.

Even then, the returns would not be that great.

 

Hischier plus a first!? 

[robrob74]

2 hours ago, JTech780 said:

 

Wingers just generally don't have a ton of trade value regardless, even if we were trading him at his peak value, I don't think it would be much different than the value I stated.

 

the thing is, Gaudreau might fit in better on a team that is better balanced. Our team has “depth”. I just don’t see us as deep as others do.

[The_People1]

2 hours ago, JTech780 said:

 

Wingers just generally don't have a ton of trade value regardless, even if we were trading him at his peak value, I don't think it would be much different than the value I stated.

 

At the 2nd/3rd/4th line level, ya wingers are dime a dozen.  At the extreme high end though, i think Wingers still hold a lot of trade value.  Teams will pay up for superstar talent.

[JTech780]

5 minutes ago, The_People1 said:

 

At the 2nd/3rd/4th line level, ya wingers are dime a dozen.  At the extreme high end though, i think Wingers still hold a lot of trade value.  Teams will pay up for superstar talent.

 

I look at what Ottawa got for Stone, Brannstrom (high end prospect), a 2nd and a pending UFA.

 

I think that's about where the market is for wingers, maybe change the 2nd to a 1st because Gaudreau has term, but I can't see us getting much more for Gaudreau.

[jjgallow]

18 minutes ago, The_People1 said:

 

At the 2nd/3rd/4th line level, ya wingers are dime a dozen.  At the extreme high end though, i think Wingers still hold a lot of trade value.  Teams will pay up for superstar talent.

 

True, agreed.

 

He is for sure at the least valuable position/side in hockey.   But at the highest level of it.

 

And, he's entertaining.

 

He might not win a cup on his own but he will fill seats.   He's big money to a big city.

 

Here's the thing...  if we had a solid core with a 1A goalie, a 1A RD, a 1A RW, and 1A center,

 

I'd say keep him.  Keep the guy.

 

But we don't.  We don't even have one of those filled.

[conundrumed]

WTF folks. Trade JG at the fist signs of struggles? Ridiculous.

[Thebrewcrew]

5 minutes ago, conundrumed said:

WTF folks. Trade JG at the fist signs of struggles? Ridiculous.

I don’t think they will right away, but now that the talking heads in Ontario have got wind, I think there’s at least smoke around the idea of it. I thought there was no chance they would trade dougie despite the chatter and the smoke ended up being fire 

 

Im only doing it for a similar player if I’m the Flames

[The_People1]

1 hour ago, conundrumed said:

WTF folks. Trade JG at the fist signs of struggles? Ridiculous.

 

I traded him many times this summer already.  So, Hah!

[The_People1]

2 hours ago, JTech780 said:

 

I look at what Ottawa got for Stone, Brannstrom (high end prospect), a 2nd and a pending UFA.

 

I think that's about where the market is for wingers, maybe change the 2nd to a 1st because Gaudreau has term, but I can't see us getting much more for Gaudreau.

 

Ya I think Gaudreau with term, and "good" term, makes his trade value go through the roof.  But we already have a stud LW in Tkachuk to replace Gaudreau... We really could use a RW or if lucky, someone would be willing to give us a young promising Center.

 

I always look at Philly and NJ because of his obvious ties.  Lots of options there.

[The_People1]

2 hours ago, jjgallow said:

 

True, agreed.

 

He is for sure at the least valuable position/side in hockey.   But at the highest level of it.

 

And, he's entertaining.

 

He might not win a cup on his own but he will fill seats.   He's big money to a big city.

 

Here's the thing...  if we had a solid core with a 1A goalie, a 1A RD, a 1A RW, and 1A center,

 

I'd say keep him.  Keep the guy.

 

But we don't.  We don't even have one of those filled.

 

I do think Tkachuk is a 1A so that's why we should consider trading Gaudreau.  Tkachuk is our points leader this season and he has rare ability to create something out of nothing on a consistent basis.  Among the top 7 or 8 LW in the NHL right now and trending up.

 

He doesn't have 99-point potential like Gaudreau but he brings so much more.

 

I see the Leafs as a team with RW depth, maybe willing to trade Marner (+Brodie to balance cap). Not crazy considering Gaudreau's bargain contract and the fact the Leafs targetted Brodie this summer.

 

When I look at Philly, I want Carter Hart too but like many say, I think he's untouchable.  But that's the main guy I want.  Sean Couturier is interesting if Philly is willing to move him.

 

NJ would probably want Gaudreau if they cannot bring back Hall.  I think they would trade Hischier for Gaudreau considering Hughes has the higher upside but Hischier is trending into the next RNH and that's not what everyone expected of him.  Tough trade with NJ.

[sak22]

2 hours ago, conundrumed said:

WTF folks. Trade JG at the fist signs of struggles? Ridiculous.

26 is the new 32 for declines I guess, once you fall you can never get back up.

[travel_dude]

Sure, lets trade the points leader from the team over the last 4 years.

Players scoring close to a p/gp are easy to replace.

Tkachuk will stick around during the rebuild.

He'll sign a bargain contract just to make sure we don't spend to the cap.

Won;t bother going UFA, will just sign.

Gio is more than capable of leading the team to the cup.

Then again he'll be drinking Margaritas in two years time on a beach.

 

 

[The_People1]

10 hours ago, sak22 said:

26 is the new 32 for declines I guess, once you fall you can never get back up.

 

3 hours ago, travel_dude said:

Sure, lets trade the points leader from the team over the last 4 years.

Players scoring close to a p/gp are easy to replace.

Tkachuk will stick around during the rebuild.

He'll sign a bargain contract just to make sure we don't spend to the cap.

Won;t bother going UFA, will just sign.

Gio is more than capable of leading the team to the cup.

Then again he'll be drinking Margaritas in two years time on a beach.

 

 

 

Not sure why there's always this idea we will get back less than what we trade away.

[cross16]

I don’t think Gaudreau gets traded for as much as most fans think,but that’s a normal disclaimer. In the majority of cases fans overrate the player. 
 

that being said I don’t think Stone is a good comparable. As a pending UFA, and it coming out later that he had a strong desire to go to Vegas, the market for that trade was small. Why I think Gaudreau would carry a pretty decent value is he’s signed for 2 more years at a bargain of a contract. That’s a huge incentive for a team that is close and wants that scoring boost, plus you get 2 year of trying to re sign him. Stone was a rental for basically every team but one which changes the return. 
 

Imo though you can’t trade Gaudreau until the summer, mid season won’t work well. I’m fine to discuss the merits but I also don’t think it’s going to be as easy or as positive for the team as some. 

[Sarasti]

13 minutes ago, cross16 said:

I don’t think Gaudreau gets traded for as much as most fans think,but that’s a normal disclaimer. In the majority of cases fans overrate the player. 
 

that being said I don’t think Stone is a good comparable. As a pending UFA, and it coming out later that he had a strong desire to go to Vegas, the market for that trade was small. Why I think Gaudreau would carry a pretty decent value is he’s signed for 2 more years at a bargain of a contract. That’s a huge incentive for a team that is close and wants that scoring boost, plus you get 2 year of trying to re sign him. Stone was a rental for basically every team but one which changes the return. 
 

Imo though you can’t trade Gaudreau until the summer, mid season won’t work well. I’m fine to discuss the merits but I also don’t think it’s going to be as easy or as positive for the team as some. 

 

I think you'd get a bigger return at the TDL if you're openly shopping Gaudreau.

Teams tend to overpay/panic when  trying to make that last minute deal.

[JTech780]

2 hours ago, The_People1 said:

 

 

Not sure why there's always this idea we will get back less than what we trade away.

 

Teams that trade away stars rarely gets stars back.

[JTech780]

3 minutes ago, Sarasti said:

 

I think you'd get a bigger return at the TDL if you're openly shopping Gaudreau.

Teams tend to overpay/panic when  trying to make that last minute deal.

 

This year, most teams that will be looking to add won't have cap space at the deadline. You also take 50% of the teams out of the equation when trading at the deadline as non playoff teams aren't looking to add at the deadline.

 

If you wait till the offseason you have the entire NHL to deal with and get a bidding war going. It is also easier for teams create cap space in the offseason. 

 

If we were going to trade Gaudreau the biggest return would come in the offseason.

[travel_dude]

3 hours ago, The_People1 said:

 

 

Not sure why there's always this idea we will get back less than what we trade away.

 

What did we get for Gilmour, Hull, Iggy, JBow?

Just because the GM sucked doesn't mean you do any better with a savy GM.

And I don''t think our GM is that savy.

He's made a decent multi-player deal once, and you could almost consider that overpaying.

 

If dreams of getting a Laine or Tarasenko exist, put those to bed.

Those trades don't happen.

 

[jjgallow]

38 minutes ago, JTech780 said:

 

This year, most teams that will be looking to add won't have cap space at the deadline. You also take 50% of the teams out of the equation when trading at the deadline as non playoff teams aren't looking to add at the deadline.

 

If you wait till the offseason you have the entire NHL to deal with and get a bidding war going. It is also easier for teams create cap space in the offseason. 

 

If we were going to trade Gaudreau the biggest return would come in the offseason.

 

I'm not necessarily disputing you, the offseason is sometimes better.   It's just.....more specifically LAST offseason would have been better.

 

With regards to cap space:   you're assuming two big things:

1.  No major injuries in the NHL between now and TDL

2.  That we know who the teams in contention are.

 

Around this time every year, cap space would suggest the TDL is limited.   What actually happens at TDL, however, is much different.  Especially when there's only a few weeks of cap hit left.   So TDLs can really come into play and Gaudreau really is elite.  

 

The only thing is that offseasons tend to place value more generally and TDLs are strictly playoff value.   Not sure what Gaudreau's playoff value is right now.   I suspect still high, but only to teams with the right composition to complement his skills.

 

 

[jjgallow]

8 minutes ago, travel_dude said:

 

What did we get for Gilmour, Hull, Iggy, JBow?

 

Of the players you listed, 3 out of the 4 were outside of their prime when we traded them and that is Exactly the point.   That is exactly why players in their prime make better trade candidates if you expect any kind of fair return at all.   This is Exactly the list of players we screwed up on by chickening out of making a good deal when it could be made.  Now we're sitting here with Two  1A LW's, and not much else.   It's just math.

 

Sooo many of us here asked to trade Iggy while still in his prime and had we done so, we would have continued a long line of successful trades dating back to Kent Nillson and resulting in Iginla.   

 

What about the Gary Roberts trade, where we got JS Giguere?    that was a winner, we just still managed to screw it up.

 

the Niewendyk trade, the Nillson trade, winners.

 

It wouldn't be a stretch to say the only trades we really Have done well on are when we sold players at high value. (their prime)

 

 

8 minutes ago, travel_dude said:

Just because the GM sucked doesn't mean you do any better with a savy GM.

And I don''t think our GM is that savy.

He's made a decent multi-player deal once, and you could almost consider that overpaying.

 

 Well I can't argue with that.

 

8 minutes ago, travel_dude said:

If dreams of getting a Laine or Tarasenko exist, put those to bed.

Those trades don't happen.

 

Yes they do.   As per above.

[robrob74]

31 minutes ago, travel_dude said:

 

What did we get for Gilmour, Hull, Iggy, JBow?

Just because the GM sucked doesn't mean you do any better with a savy GM.

And I don''t think our GM is that savy.

He's made a decent multi-player deal once, and you could almost consider that overpaying.

 

If dreams of getting a Laine or Tarasenko exist, put those to bed.

Those trades don't happen.

 

 

but they do happen. Rarely. 
 

Nashville got Forsberg for Erat.

 

its a deal that would need to be done with the future in mind and not the present. Therefore we get a young player that can turn into a top line guy. But that is a gamble, why you’d go for a Hischier or someone like that. 
 

it is akin to the Niewendyk deal. Future in mind. But that young guy has to be a sure thing.
 

For us, trading Bennett should’ve happened when Anaheim was interested. I didn’t want it. I still think he’s going to turn into a bit more, just not for the Flames.

 

I don’t think we should trade Gaudreau, not until he has one year left on his deal and if he let us know he wants to sign elsewhere.

[JTech780]

The trades where teams get a star for trading a star generally happen by mistake, either a GM makes a mistake like the Forsberg trade mentioned above, or a team hits a home run on a draft pick like the Nilsson trade, where we got Nieuwendyk with a 2nd round pick. 

 

Teams generally don't trade star players or future star players, even if they are getting a star player in return.

 

What happens most of the time is the team trading the star player gets a package of picks or prospects in return in the hopes that 1 of them hits, but the odds are stacked against that happening.

 

 

 

[The_People1]

44 minutes ago, travel_dude said:

 

What did we get for Gilmour, Hull, Iggy, JBow?

Just because the GM sucked doesn't mean you do any better with a savy GM.

And I don''t think our GM is that savy.

He's made a decent multi-player deal once, and you could almost consider that overpaying.

 

If dreams of getting a Laine or Tarasenko exist, put those to bed.

Those trades don't happen.

 

Me: Let's trade player A for player B.

You: What?!  Why would you want to trade Player A for Player C,D, and E?

Me: ....Huh?

 

No seriously lol... let's trade our best scorer in the last 4 years for another player who will be our best scorer for the next 4 years.  Okay?  I just don't understand the thought process.  Did i say let's trade our best scorer in the last 4 years and end there?

[The_People1]

23 minutes ago, JTech780 said:

The trades where teams get a star for trading a star generally happen by mistake, either a GM makes a mistake like the Forsberg trade mentioned above, or a team hits a home run on a draft pick like the Nilsson trade, where we got Nieuwendyk with a 2nd round pick. 

 

Teams generally don't trade star players or future star players, even if they are getting a star player in return.

 

What happens most of the time is the team trading the star player gets a package of picks or prospects in return in the hopes that 1 of them hits, but the odds are stacked against that happening.

 

Whether it happens by mistake, miscalculation, or sacrificing long term for short term, these trades do happen.  They do happen.  Let's make one of these happen.