Brad Treliving - GM Tracking & Evaluation

[travel_dude]

Trades:  A- (Hamilton, Shore, Kylington, Reinhart, Bollig, Baertchi)

Home Run winner(s), Toughness, moved Redundant/Disgruntled pieces...

 

UFA signings: B+ (Hiller, Ramo, Morrison, Nakladal, Engelland, Setoguchi, Raymond, Diaz, Schlemko, Hathaway, Frolik)

Meeting Cap Floor, Toughness, Scoring, D Depth & Upgrading Possession.  Underestimated Prospect Readiness.  

 

RFA signings: B+ (Bouma, Jooris, Byron, Agostino, Van Brabant)

Solid signings at good Cap rates

 

Prospect Signings: A (Carroll, Kylington, Kanzig)

Advancing potential key prospects

 

Contract Extensions: A+ (Giordano, Backlund, TJ Brodie, Hamilton, Ortio)

Core pieces for LT at Under Market Value

 

Prospect Advancement: A- (Jooris, Ferland(?), Gaudreau, Bennett, Granlund, Shore, Ortio)

 

Clearing Roster Spots: C+ (Potter, McGratton, Setoguchi)

Limited movement, dramatically more REQUIRED.

 

Drafting: A (Bennett, McDonald, Smith, Hickey, Carroll, Andersson, Kylington, Mangiapane...)

 

Cap Management: B+

Resisted overpaying vets except for Engelland, has a definite visible pathway forward to sign key Core pieces in the next two years. 

 

Overall I'd say BT has done an outstanding job his first full year on the job.  The one area of "weakness" has been clearing roster spots for emerging prospects which also happens to be his current most pressing need. He has a plethora of options for the team at all positions but may be hindered by too many guys, and too many contracts.  He currently needs to lose 2-3 contracts just for the status quo with limited prospect graduations, and even more should Hathaway, Poirier, Wotherspoon, Ortio and etc make a solid case for full-time NHL come Training Camp.  If no trades are made prior to season opening, several vets likely to be Waived (and potentially lost for nothing), and you plug the Prospect Pipeline when several players are prepped and ready to emerge.  

 

This was a foreseeable need last Summer and unfortunately Raymond and Setoguchi were added, though secondary scoring was an issue at the time and Jooris had not yet emerged.  This Summer it has become Critical and definitely needs to be addressed asap.

 

I can agree with some of your assessment:

Bollig is not a great piece, albeit it only cost a 3rd.  He's also on a 3 year deal.

Kylington was a great draft pick where he was taken, but would classify it as a huge win yet.

Engelland is not a good UFA signing.  Too much and too much term.

Raymond was not a good signing; he played in TO for $1m, but he gets a 3 year deal at triple the rate.

The Gooch wasn't too bad, except it was a waste of a position.

Bouma was not a great signing, as he came in pretty close to what he would have gotten in arbitration for a shorter period of time.

 

Overall, I rate the first summer as a learning experience.  He didn't think Johnny would be such a force, and signed some extra depth on defense.  This season and off-season, he made up for it in spades.  Solid trades for picks (2-3rds to get a second + Reinhart for a pick). Solid re-signings for Brodie, Backlund, Gio, most of the RFA's.  Good drafting (chose skill over size).  Good YFA to date with Frolik.

[cross16]

 

 

That isn't to say there isn't opportunity.  They might park a vet in the AHL or clear a spot via trade.  There is also opportunity when injury strikes.  But the roster is really full right now make the Flames a really tough team to make.  That is a legitimate concern on a team going through a rebuild. 

 

is this really a rebuild anymore though? As i've said before i get people have different defenitions but i'm not sure whatever definition you want would you classify the Flames as rebuilding. The Flames have their core, they've identified the main pieces, locked up their captain long term and have left themslves room to lock up the young core. They gave up picks to get another core piece and locked him up, and were active in free agent. Yes they have some holes on their roster but who doesn't? and for all of those holes they have they have young players potetnially available to fill the spots. I'm not saying they are a contending, but to me your rebulding when you are shipping guys out, not brining in.

 

i think the rebuild is over and now everything is about adding missing pieces needed to be a contender.this should be a tough team to make otherwise i would question the job Treliving has done. I get you are probably signalling out more the "dead weight" of Smid, Engelland and Raymond and while I do agree there is a bit of concern with those contracts i still would rather have a deep and competitive team then one where we are pencilling in rookies to the top line who havnt earned it yet.

[AlbertaBoy12]

http://flamesnation.ca/2015/8/26/how-giordano-s-extension-creates-possibilities

 

As much as I dont like some of the deals, this is great article highlighting how much cap space is possible to have going into the 2016-17 season at this point and then further on down the line. I do agree that some players have to go, but I think in terms of BTs long term plan he is winning there. If he can clear out even one or two of these contracts we want to go this season, it will be a win in my opinion.

[Flame111]

I am really glad we are doing the BT review in real time. I personally think the Gio contract will come to haunt the Flames. Certainly decent value in real time but as the years march on the signing of Gio to such a long term will likely come to be seen as a misstep... 

 

Just my view, nothing he could do about it today... 

[Wreckening]

To be fair none of us really knows the future and what will happen. Injuries, trades, a zombie apocalypse, anything could happen. Is he going to be worth the contract when he's 39? History would say no, but history is known to have it's moments too with D-men who have solid careers up to their 40's. Giordano could have the longevity of a Bourque or Chelios or Stevens and leave his own mark (sorry for the pun) on the NHL history books. I think the organization learned their lesson with Iginla. Giordano's contract is by no means anything that handcuffs this team. Its a tradable contract, the dollar value is good considering what he could have been paid in FA. Can't blame a guy for wanting stability for his family. Any one of us would do the same if afforded the opportunity. I know I would. In my opinion, weighing everything, this is a good value contract both in dollars and term. I believe BT hit a homerun on this one.

[Flame111]

is this really a rebuild anymore though? As i've said before i get people have different defenitions but i'm not sure whatever definition you want would you classify the Flames as rebuilding. The Flames have their core, they've identified the main pieces, locked up their captain long term and have left themslves room to lock up the young core. They gave up picks to get another core piece and locked him up, and were active in free agent. Yes they have some holes on their roster but who doesn't? and for all of those holes they have they have young players potetnially available to fill the spots. I'm not saying they are a contending, but to me your rebulding when you are shipping guys out, not brining in.

 

i think the rebuild is over and now everything is about adding missing pieces needed to be a contender.this should be a tough team to make otherwise i would question the job Treliving has done. I get you are probably signalling out more the "dead weight" of Smid, Engelland and Raymond and while I do agree there is a bit of concern with those contracts i still would rather have a deep and competitive team then one where we are pencilling in rookies to the top line who havnt earned it yet.

 

I also agree the rebuild is over. except for Goaltending, which lets face it, is one of the most important positions. The Flames on paper should be able to compensate for it with the solid and deep D they have.

So many people were calling the Flames the Leafs and Avs, a team that defied the stats and is destined for regression this season. I disagree, BT has quite literally gone out and addressed exactly what we need. As you said the Core is solidified and the team very may be a season away from the Contender status. Clearing some of the "dead weight" as you say may be the final work of this season but prospects should be ready or close to ready to filling those holes. 

We will know a lot by Dec of this season. Is the team there or not? Are our young stars continuing to evolve or not? Does Johnny, Monny and Sam have a higher level? Is that D getting chemistry right down to the bottom pairing? How is the PP looking? Will possession numbers be where they need to be to please the adv stats guys?

 

This team is now an expected playoff team in my book and we will know by Dec if they are evolving to contender status. This is the most exciting upcoming season for the Flames in years and I can't wait for it to start...    

 

[420since1974]

Play-offs or not, the Calgary Flames have been very entertaining to watch for the last 1-1/2 seasons and Trevling has been one of the reasons for it.

 

He has helped gather players that buy into Hartley's "work hard, team first" attitude that has led to the major improvements we have seen lately.

 

In hindsight (always 20/20) his early contract signings were sub par, but he's been hitting it out of the park most times since then.

[cccsberg]

Play-offs or not, the Calgary Flames have been very entertaining to watch for the last 1-1/2 seasons and Trevling has been one of the reasons for it.

 

He has helped gather players that buy into Hartley's "work hard, team first" attitude that has led to the major improvements we have seen lately.

 

In hindsight (always 20/20) his early contract signings were sub par, but he's been hitting it out of the park most times since then.

His early signings were subpar, but he was trying to reach the Cap Floor, and our defence was tenuous at best.  I mean, come on.  Neither Giordano nor Brodie had completely broken out at that point and fully established themselves, Smid was like our number 3 with Wideman our number 4 and little if anything beyond that.  His problem was signing term to bad contracts rather than requiring to get a 1-2 year deal done and then reassessing.  Plus, with Engelland he was buying D protection for Gaudreau who a lot of people were excited about but paranoid he would get creamed his first game out of the chute....

 

BT has been doing great since and my, how things have changed.  And even as much as we want to complain about certain players, the team made the playoffs and won a round, their best finish since 1989 so perhaps even his early signings were great too, but we just don't realize it due to the parameters we are using as measuring sticks...?

[robrob1974]

How does Treliving measure up to other GMs? I guess we could only compare the new ones hired around the same time?

The only ones I can think of are:

Benning

T. Murray

Could we add the GMs for:

Dallas

Colorado

I can't remember who else are NKOTB.

[travel_dude]

How does Treliving measure up to other GMs? I guess we could only compare the new ones hired around the same time?

The only ones I can think of are:

Benning

T. Murray

Could we add the GMs for:

Dallas

Colorado

I can't remember who else are NKOTB.

 

NKOTB?

 

Donnie Wahlberg?

 

Seriously though, you must be forgetting Boston and Pittsburg (semi new kid).  Thank god we didn't get Benning.

[cccsberg]

Interesting comments from Elliot Frieman this morning about major trades and some GMs not even knowing that the player might be available. From his experience (with a couple anecdotes) the issue seems to be the ability to keep a potential trade quiet until completed and reluctance to shop players widely because some GMs can't keep it quiet which can lead to trouble if the deal isn't completed.

Although it is frustrating not hearing anything from the Flames about signings/trades until they are completed (e.g. Hamilton, Giordano), that exact thing along with BT's determination to talk to everyone is likely one of the main reasons why he seems to be successful. Friedman was relating that BB only found out about the Boston trade of Thornton 15 minutes before it was to be finalized and in spite of being very interested and making many players potentially available, it was too late and he lost out. Bet knowing what is potentially going down in the league was a high priority he reiterated with BT when he first came on board.

[rocketdoctor]

http://calgaryherald.com/sports/hockey/nhl/calgary-flames/johnson-minor-league-trial-by-fire-forged-flames-gm-treliving-into-big-time-talent

 

Good article

[420since1974]

Thank you for the link.

 

So Brad Trevling once fought Gino Odjick?

Apparently, our GM can be fearless.

[darth_henning]

Personally I prefer that BT has been keeping the information about trades and signings quiet. It leads to less fruitless speculation and media circus surrounding our players and distracting them from their point of being here: Winning games. 

 

I quite approve. 

 

Also, I think he's definitely improved massively this off season. 

 

Personally, I think he made a few decisions last off-season that suggest that he didn't have a lot of faith in our young players and gave out a few contracts at too high of a dollar value and term to ride out a long (well not compared to Edmonton I guess) rebuild. 

 

That said, none of us really expected the growth last season, r the optimism we'd be going into this season , so the weren't bad decisions, just not the best because they give us less flexibility than we need going forward. 

 

This off-season though, he's done an unquestionably excellent job. We gave up essentially nothing for two big upgrades in our top 6 and top 4. Hard to question that. Then add in signing Gio for a reasonable contract and term, at a price lower than pretty much any of us expected, and securing Ferland and Bouma for the near future, and it would be hard to ask for a better summer. 

 

This year will be interesting to watch to see if he can keep all the key pieces of the team and keep under the cap next year. 

[robrob1974]

Is Treliving overpaying too many players?

Raymond

Engelland

Bouma

Backlund

Hamilton

Frolik

Ramo

Hiller

Ramo is 1.5m over paid.

Raymond is at least 1m more than what he is worth. Engelland is the same. I would've paid Bouma and Backlund a million less too. Hamilton I would've paid about 0.75m less, and possibly the same with Frolik.

Although I understand the Frolik reasons.

[cross16]

Is Treliving overpaying too many players?

Raymond

Engelland

Bouma

Backlund

Hamilton

Frolik

Ramo

Hiller

Ramo is 1.5m over paid.

Raymond is at least 1m more than what he is worth. Engelland is the same. I would've paid Bouma and Backlund a million less too. Hamilton I would've paid about 0.75m less, and possibly the same with Frolik.

Although I understand the Frolik reasons.

 

What you would paid them does not equal what their market value is. 

 

The ones i bolded are all players that got paid according to market and in some cases less than market. Engelland isn't a fantastic deal but its not a bad one either becuaes a 5/6 dman who can step into the top 4 is going to make right around 3 or more. You tend to overpay guys on July 1 anyway.

 

Raymond and Ramo are the only contracts that i think you scratched your head when they were signed. For Raymond the $ amount wasn't bd it was the term and for Ramo I do agree that was a head scartcher but not a big deal IMO. IMO, you need to worry about term more than you do $ and given Ramo is only a 1 year term overpaying him isn't that big a deal. 

[robrob1974]

I don't agree.

But I think Bouma is definitely over paid. He is a 4th liner on a good team. He was lucky to be on the Flames.

Backlund never plays a full season. I really liked Backlund. He has been disappointing the last few years though.

I think Hamilton is overpaid. I think he should be 5M.

Frolik had to be overpaid to sign as a UFA though.

[cross16]

If you look at the market you would see that these players arn't overpaid. Again, you have to look at what is the market not what YOU feel they are worth becuase that is irrelevant. 

 

Bouma is probably a bit overpaid but again you have to look at the situation. he was 2 years away from being a UFA and had 16 goals so on a 1 year deal is worth at least 1.5. so you sign him to a 1 year deal becuae you don't think he will repeat but then next offseason you have to qualify him at 1.5 anway or he walks for nothing. If he repeats it an scores between 10-15 goals again then is worth probably 2.5 or more being thta clsoe to UFA So Treliving met him in the middle and settle at just over 2 million and got 1 UFA year out of it which was necessary in order to keep Lance bouma. if you are fine with letting bouma leave for nothing then you can dispute Treliving's process on how he arrived at what to pay him, but if you like Lance Bouma and want to keep him he got a deal that was a bit too high yes, but not unreasonable again given the circumstances. 

[AlbertaBoy12]

I don't agree.

But I think Bouma is definitely over paid. He is a 4th liner on a good team. He was lucky to be on the Flames.

Backlund never plays a full season. I really liked Backlund. He has been disappointing the last few years though.

I think Hamilton is overpaid. I think he should be 5M.

Frolik had to be overpaid to sign as a UFA though.

Hamilton is probably overpaid for how he is playing right now, but as he gets better I have a feeling his contract will look like a huge steal. Backlunds contract is tradeable, and personally if he was the 3rd line centre( like I think he should be), I dont mind the contract or player. Bouma wasent playing all that badly before the injury this year, tbh I still thought he was one of our best forwards thorugh the first 3 games. But I guess it all depends on point of view.

[travel_dude]

I don't agree.

But I think Bouma is definitely over paid. He is a 4th liner on a good team. He was lucky to be on the Flames.

Backlund never plays a full season. I really liked Backlund. He has been disappointing the last few years though.

I think Hamilton is overpaid. I think he should be 5M.

Frolik had to be overpaid to sign as a UFA though.

 

To be fair, I think you have said elsewhere that NHL players are overpaid as a whole.

 

$10m for Kane or Weber, or $6m for Johnny Hockey.  Sounds like a lot.  How do you go about valuing a player in the NHL though.  You can say a top 4 dman makes at least $4m, depending on the length of the deal.  A top 2 make about $6m.  A top goalie makes about $6m.  A top forward makes about $6m.  Intangibles play into it.  Shot blocker, heart and soul guy like Bouma gets more than his equivalent on another team.  I thought he was overpaid, but don't have a big problem with it.  

 

Hamilton is going to be worth the trade (by a long shot) and the salary.  Gio's may be harder to justify if he doesn;t return to form soon.  Monahan and Johnny will get market value when they sign.  $6m is likely the starting point.  Same for Bennett if he keeps it up.  Frolik was a steal.  WPG is missing him, for the sake of a $4m salary offer they could have made.  He is our most consistent player.  

 

As far as contracts in general, it's an entertainment business.  Movie Stars get more.  A useless nobody like Kim Kardashian makes tons.  How much does Tome Brady make?  How about Beckham? Soccer players make way more money.  

[AlbertaBoy12]

To be fair, I think you have said elsewhere that NHL players are overpaid as a whole.

 

$10m for Kane or Weber, or $6m for Johnny Hockey.  Sounds like a lot.  How do you go about valuing a player in the NHL though.  You can say a top 4 dman makes at least $4m, depending on the length of the deal.  A top 2 make about $6m.  A top goalie makes about $6m.  A top forward makes about $6m.  Intangibles play into it.  Shot blocker, heart and soul guy like Bouma gets more than his equivalent on another team.  I thought he was overpaid, but don't have a big problem with it.  

 

Hamilton is going to be worth the trade (by a long shot) and the salary.  Gio's may be harder to justify if he doesn;t return to form soon.  Monahan and Johnny will get market value when they sign.  $6m is likely the starting point.  Same for Bennett if he keeps it up.  Frolik was a steal.  WPG is missing him, for the sake of a $4m salary offer they could have made.  He is our most consistent player.  

 

As far as contracts in general, it's an entertainment business.  Movie Stars get more.  A useless nobody like Kim Kardashian makes tons.  How much does Tome Brady make?  How about Beckham? Soccer players make way more money.  

On that note how much does a baseball player make to do next to nothing.

[travel_dude]

On that note how much does a baseball player make to do next to nothing.

 

I've always felt that a sport that everyone can play, drink before, during, and after should be something you pay to do, not get paid to do.  

[robrob1974]

You can't compare leagues until the NHL catches up in revenue. It's in relation to the Cap I have a problem with.

[sparky_the_welder]

To be fair, I think you have said elsewhere that NHL players are overpaid as a whole.

 

$10m for Kane or Weber, or $6m for Johnny Hockey.  Sounds like a lot.  How do you go about valuing a player in the NHL though.  You can say a top 4 dman makes at least $4m, depending on the length of the deal.  A top 2 make about $6m.  A top goalie makes about $6m.  A top forward makes about $6m.  Intangibles play into it.  Shot blocker, heart and soul guy like Bouma gets more than his equivalent on another team.  I thought he was overpaid, but don't have a big problem with it.  

 

Hamilton is going to be worth the trade (by a long shot) and the salary.  Gio's may be harder to justify if he doesn;t return to form soon.  Monahan and Johnny will get market value when they sign.  $6m is likely the starting point.  Same for Bennett if he keeps it up.  Frolik was a steal.  WPG is missing him, for the sake of a $4m salary offer they could have made.  He is our most consistent player.  

 

As far as contracts in general, it's an entertainment business.  Movie Stars get more.  A useless nobody like Kim Kardashian makes tons.  How much does Tome Brady make?  How about Beckham? Soccer players make way more money.  

Duncan Keith $5.538 million, Ekman-Larsen $5.5 million, Justin Faulk $4.833 million, Ryan McDonaugh $4.7 million, Hjalmarssen $4.1 million, Cam Fowler $3.966 million, Alec Martinez $4.0 million, Hamonic $3.85 million.  There are comparables.  If a player is the second highest paid on the team he needs to play like one of the best on the team.  It can't just be about potential.  I was glad to see he played better last night.  The NHL pays for performance so he needs to keep improving if his pay is to be justified.

[travel_dude]

Duncan Keith $5.538 million, Ekman-Larsen $5.5 million, Justin Faulk $4.833 million, Ryan McDonaugh $4.7 million, Hjalmarssen $4.1 million, Cam Fowler $3.966 million, Alec Martinez $4.0 million, Hamonic $3.85 million.  There are comparables.  If a player is the second highest paid on the team he needs to play like one of the best on the team.  It can't just be about potential.  I was glad to see he played better last night.  The NHL pays for performance so he needs to keep improving if his pay is to be justified.

 

If you are going to cherry pick players with similar cap hits, remember that some of those were signed a long time ago.  Keith was signed for 13 years, with a declining salary (from $8m - $1.5m).  Seabrooke signed for 5 years after consistently putting up good numbers.  He will be a UFA the end of the season and likely gets more than Gio.

 

It's not like we signed Hamilton without seeing results in past seasons.  We paid more for the extra years of UFA status.