2024 NHL draft - A New Hope

[conundrumed]

8 minutes ago, The_People1 said:

only Catton or Helenius.

Dude. Now you're racing your rebuild?

[robrob74]

23 minutes ago, The_People1 said:

 

It takes 4-years for some though.  Lafreniere is only starting to come around too.  Both Byfield and Lafreniere are getting their careers back on good trajectory.  But fair point I probably wouldn't trade the #9 for Byfield if Buium or Dickinson is still available.  I might do it if it's only Catton or Helenius.

 

Most players in the past were late bloomers. Being NHL ready sooner is recent. Top picks might have been closer, but I think it used to be common for players to take 2-3 years to be ready. Majority are, but in some cases it's later. 

[sak22]

24 minutes ago, The_People1 said:

 

It takes 4-years for some though.  Lafreniere is only starting to come around too.  Both Byfield and Lafreniere are getting their careers back on good trajectory.  But fair point I probably wouldn't trade the #9 for Byfield if Buium or Dickinson is still available.  I might do it if it's only Catton or Helenius.

Yeah I just find unless a #2 is established as a star than in 4 years you couldn't move that player for the current #2.  Probably couldn't trade Lafraniere, Power or Slavkovsky for #1 either, because you have a better understanding of what they are where you still need to believe the upside of Celebrini will be better.  4 years doesn't sound like a lot of time, but 3 years Griffin Reinhart went from being a #4 overall to worth #16 and a 2nd in a trade, 4 years took Sven from a mid round 1st to traded for a mid-late 2nd.  Picks can be like cars and lose value pretty quickly.

[The_People1]

42 minutes ago, sak22 said:

Yeah I just find unless a #2 is established as a star than in 4 years you couldn't move that player for the current #2.  Probably couldn't trade Lafraniere, Power or Slavkovsky for #1 either, because you have a better understanding of what they are where you still need to believe the upside of Celebrini will be better.  4 years doesn't sound like a lot of time, but 3 years Griffin Reinhart went from being a #4 overall to worth #16 and a 2nd in a trade, 4 years took Sven from a mid round 1st to traded for a mid-late 2nd.  Picks can be like cars and lose value pretty quickly.

 

A 10th overall could redraft as a top 5 in 3 years but it can also only fetch a mid-2nd rounder in a trade in 3 years.  But most teams would choose the potential upside of the deal.

 

Let's see what NSH decides to do.  The fact NJD is publicly putting the 10th overall on the table for the rest of the league to know, then I assume we see some trade action very soon.

[cross16]

2 hours ago, The_People1 said:

 

NSH was asking for Byfield from LAK... Former 2nd overall pick.  Maybe 10th overall doesn't get it done.  They want Celebrini/Demidov level of talent in return.

 

Ullmark feels like fair value here.  However, BOS may prefer an asset in their prime and doesn't want to draft and wait 2-4 years.  Could the Flames do some kind of 3-way trade here?  NJD gets Ullmark, and BOS gets some combo of Kadri, Andersson, Sharangovich, etc.

 

What is ANA doing?  Would they trade Gibson or do they feel their team is playoff ready next season?  I imagine they would want another top 10 pick but do they have a new Goalie ready to take over?  If not then their rebuild could go another 5-years and do they want that?

 

Markstrom + a time machine would work.  I agree 34/35 year old shouldn't be enough to get convos started.  If NJD is willing to move a 10th pick then they probably don't care to pick 28th either.  They simply want the best Goalie available on the market.  At the same time, is NJD desperate enough they would settle for Markstrom?  After all, Ullmark is 1-year to UFA and could walk for nothing after 1-year.

 

Martin Brodeur, who works for the Devils, named Markstrom in his top 5 of active goalies. I don't think they view Markstrom as "settling". 

 

Think context matters here. It's not like Fitzgerald is saying I want to move the top 10 pick. He's stated he wants a goalie and a reporter asked him in that pursuit would he consider parting with the top 10 pick and he said he he would but it would have to be significant.

 

I don't read that means that they are not interested in Markstrom but rather then are casting a wider net than the trade deadline. 

[The_People1]

20 minutes ago, cross16 said:

 

Martin Brodeur, who works for the Devils, named Markstrom in his top 5 of active goalies. I don't think they view Markstrom as "settling". 

 

Think context matters here. It's not like Fitzgerald is saying I want to move the top 10 pick. He's stated he wants a goalie and a reporter asked him in that pursuit would he consider parting with the top 10 pick and he said he he would but it would have to be significant.

 

I don't read that means that they are not interested in Markstrom but rather then are casting a wider net than the trade deadline. 

 

[cross16]

1 hour ago, The_People1 said:

 

 

That NJ acquires Markstrom? Yes

 

That they get the 10th pick highly, highly unlikely. 

[The_People1]

2 hours ago, cross16 said:

 

That NJ acquires Markstrom? Yes

 

That they get the 10th pick highly, highly unlikely. 

 

Is next year's draft better?  Maybe we should do Markstrom to NJD for next year's 1st round pick and gamble that NJD flops again.

[The_People1]

2 hours ago, cross16 said:

 

That NJ acquires Markstrom? Yes

 

That they get the 10th pick highly, highly unlikely. 

 

Also Markstrom at 50% retained for two years.  $3-mil x 2-years.

 

If NJD gets Saros, then i think $10-mil x 8-year extension is happening immediately.  NJD might not be able to afford that. Ullmark might be $8-mil x 8-years.

 

Can Flames sweeten this further?  Add Mange/Kuzmenko at 50%?  

[MP5029]

10 hours ago, sak22 said:

Neither of those guys were Hall of Famers who spent the majority of their careers in one market, and the kids all went somewhere they hadn't played.  

Does that really matter? 
 

the only pressures and or expectations on Tij will be those he places on himself,

which as a competitive type guy much like his dad will exist but also much like his dad that will make him great like his dad…and that will happen regardless if it’s Cgy, Dal, Mlt…I’d much prefer that it happens in Cgy

 

now that all

said,

no he’s not Jarome, he’s Tij and they have many similar but also different qualities that will make Tij every bit as good as his dad…but also in a different way.

[sak22]

10 minutes ago, MP5029 said:

Does that really matter? 
 

the only pressures and or expectations on Tij will be those he places on himself,

which as a competitive type guy much like his dad will exist but also much like his dad that will make him great like his dad…and that will happen regardless if it’s Cgy, Dal, Mlt…I’d much prefer that it happens in Cgy

 

now that all

said,

no he’s not Jarome, he’s Tij and they have many similar but also different qualities that will make Tij every bit as good as his dad…but also in a different way.

It does matter, the Dome is plastered with his dad, everyone here remembers the 500 goals, consecutive 30 goal seasons, the shift, etc., nobody talks about Keith Tkachuk here or Michal Nylander in Toronto.  Jarome was better than both so the bigger the shoe the harder it is to fill.  But you might not draw the comparisons and I think that’s great, I wish more were like you in that regard.  I just know many aren’t, and the outside noise is way louder and harder to ignore than it was in Jaromes days, and Tij’s generation is a lot different than Jaromes.

[cberg]

2 hours ago, sak22 said:

It does matter, the Dome is plastered with his dad, everyone here remembers the 500 goals, consecutive 30 goal seasons, the shift, etc., nobody talks about Keith Tkachuk here or Michal Nylander in Toronto.  Jarome was better than both so the bigger the shoe the harder it is to fill.  But you might not draw the comparisons and I think that’s great, I wish more were like you in that regard.  I just know many aren’t, and the outside noise is way louder and harder to ignore than it was in Jaromes days, and Tij’s generation is a lot different than Jaromes.

You can't(shouldn't) live your life in fear, fear of what could negatively happen... need to pick a highly skilled player, with a great attitude and potential and develop them to the best of their ability.  I have no fears of drafting Tij, we'll see how the picks work out.  Every year there are major surprises, just don't know what they will be this year.  Recent injuries to Demidov and Lindstrom, will they drop as a result?  Rapid, recent improvements, is the sustainable?  Lots to consider...

[travel_dude]

6 hours ago, The_People1 said:

 

Is next year's draft better?  Maybe we should do Markstrom to NJD for next year's 1st round pick and gamble that NJD flops again.

 

Markstrom would likely have a banner year this year, so I think you would be beeter off with the 2026 1st from NJ.  Assuming you expect to get a 1st.  

[phoenix66]

17 hours ago, cross16 said:

 

That NJ acquires Markstrom? Yes

 

That they get the 10th pick highly, highly unlikely. 

I think we are in the right realm now .. there is precedent now If you recall the Schneider deal.. Marky for the 10oa falls in the fair category..  you still have the options of some retention.. possibly throw in a second or a 50% mangiapane If they want to use age as a leverage 

[cross16]

2 minutes ago, phoenix66 said:

I think we are in the right realm now .. there is precedent now If you recall the Schneider deal.. Marky for the 10oa falls in the fair category..  you still have the options of some retention.. possibly throw in a second or a 50% mangiapane If they want to use age as a leverage 

 

Schneider was 27. I don't think this is near the same.

 

To each their own but I don't think Markstrom is going to generate that type of value. 

[cross16]

15 hours ago, The_People1 said:

 

Is next year's draft better?  Maybe we should do Markstrom to NJD for next year's 1st round pick and gamble that NJD flops again.

 

I don't know that next year's draft is better but I'd happily take that gamble. If for not other reason you'd have 2 firsts next year now too. I like the idea of spreading out assets like that. 

 

15 hours ago, The_People1 said:

 

Also Markstrom at 50% retained for two years.  $3-mil x 2-years.

 

If NJD gets Saros, then i think $10-mil x 8-year extension is happening immediately.  NJD might not be able to afford that. Ullmark might be $8-mil x 8-years.

 

Can Flames sweeten this further?  Add Mange/Kuzmenko at 50%?  

 

I think they could sweeten it but your now getting to the point are the Flames giving up too much for the devils pick? Retention should have a price in itself. 

 

I don't see Mang or Kuzmenko being interesting to the Devils. 

[sak22]

The quote from the article was 

Quote

"If we feel it helps us now and in the foreseeable future, then, yes, I'm listening," New Jersey general manager Tom Fitzgerald told NHL.com 

I do think the the foreseeable future extends past 2 years, so that was my takeaway from the article 2 years of Markstrom and 1 of Mange I don't see doing that.  

[The_People1]

45 minutes ago, sak22 said:

The quote from the article was 

I do think the the foreseeable future extends past 2 years, so that was my takeaway from the article 2 years of Markstrom and 1 of Mange I don't see doing that.  

 

 

Fitzgerald also mentioned some players had different contracts and questions how that should reprice... I think he's looking at Saros and Ullmark as pending UFAs who could walk away in 1-year.  That, or it's an expensive extension so how does that reprice in the trade market?

 

On the other hand, he could get Markstrom at $3-mil x 2-years.  

[The_People1]

1 hour ago, cross16 said:

I think they could sweeten it but your now getting to the point are the Flames giving up too much for the devils pick? Retention should have a price in itself. 

 

I don't see Mang or Kuzmenko being interesting to the Devils. 

 

Do we want to tank an extra year for a top 10 pick or retain $3 to $6 mil for one year?  Because getting an extra top 10 pick is basically a year's worth of tank. 

 

I know I'm not paying the bills so I think it's critical for the Flames to spend the millions to land this pick given where the Flames are at with their retool.

[The_People1]

11 hours ago, travel_dude said:

 

Markstrom would likely have a banner year this year, so I think you would be beeter off with the 2026 1st from NJ.  Assuming you expect to get a 1st.  

 

Markstrom should be worth a late 1st to a Cup contender at the TDL again next year.  Maybe a team loses a goalie during the season and desperately needs help to save their Cup chances.

[sak22]

37 minutes ago, The_People1 said:

 

Do we want to tank an extra year for a top 10 pick or retain $3 to $6 mil for one year?  Because getting an extra top 10 pick is basically a year's worth of tank. 

 

I know I'm not paying the bills so I think it's critical for the Flames to spend the millions to land this pick given where the Flames are at with their retool.

I don't think anyone is against the idea, just debating the logic behind it, meaning I don't and I get the idea that cross also doesn't believe #10 will happen, I'd gladly eat my words if I'm wrong.  But from a planning perspective I think that thought process can get you in trouble as we shouldn't be expecting a franchise altering player at #9 adding #10 doesn't do much in that regard, could just speed up the path to mediocrity again.

[The_People1]

35 minutes ago, sak22 said:

I don't think anyone is against the idea, just debating the logic behind it, meaning I don't and I get the idea that cross also doesn't believe #10 will happen, I'd gladly eat my words if I'm wrong.  But from a planning perspective I think that thought process can get you in trouble as we shouldn't be expecting a franchise altering player at #9 adding #10 doesn't do much in that regard, could just speed up the path to mediocrity again.

 

There's really just three starting goalies on the market.  Saros, Ullmark, and Markstrom.  Maybe Gibson from ANA depending on what they are doing.

 

So if LAK beats NJD to Saros, and if BOS doesn't want picks for Ullmark... What other choice does NJD have?

 

There's also TOR looking for a starter.  Some suggest Marner for Saros as a possibility.

 

CAR is looking too.  Necas for Ullmark?

 

BUF and OTT also want G.  Maybe PHI and DET too.

 

Anyways, there's reason for Conroy to sell high... But I hope he doesn't overplay his hand.. the 10th being available shouldn't be a surprise to Conroy at this point.  Not sure what's the hold up.

[Thebrewcrew]

I feel like a Markstrom trade will end up being in the neighborhood of a 2nd and 3rd, maybe a 2nd and 4th. Would like to add some 2025 picks. The Flames only have six right now.

 

I think it's a complicated deal to land the 10th pick.

 

I think it starts with 50% retention. Knock the contract down to 3x2 on Markstrom. Then I think you're adding the Vancouver pick. I think it will cost some more though.

 

My best guess is

Markstrom at 3x2

28th

41st

 

For 10th. It's a very steep price I would think to trade up to a 10th overall pick.

 

 

I think it's more likely they circle back on Holtz. NJ has two 2nd's next year. Maybe Holtz, 2nd and 4th in 2025.

 

 

[The_People1]

36 minutes ago, sak22 said:

I don't think anyone is against the idea, just debating the logic behind it, meaning I don't and I get the idea that cross also doesn't believe #10 will happen, I'd gladly eat my words if I'm wrong.  But from a planning perspective I think that thought process can get you in trouble as we shouldn't be expecting a franchise altering player at #9 adding #10 doesn't do much in that regard, could just speed up the path to mediocrity again.

 

Also, #9/#10 isn't franchise altering... Perhaps.  But still going to be a core player moving forward. 

 

I expect the level of player to be like, Nylander, Horvat, Werenski, Larkin, Cozens, etc.  and small chance of Quinn Hughes and Rantanen which are franchise altering but not expected.  

[The_People1]

3 minutes ago, Thebrewcrew said:

I feel like a Markstrom trade will end up being in the neighborhood of a 2nd and 3rd, maybe a 2nd and 4th. Would like to add some 2025 picks. The Flames only have six right now.

 

I think it's a complicated deal to land the 10th pick.

 

I think it starts with 50% retention. Knock the contract down to 3x2 on Markstrom. Then I think you're adding the Vancouver pick. I think it will cost some more though.

 

My best guess is

Markstrom at 3x2

28th

41st

 

For 10th. It's a very steep price I would think to trade up to a 10th overall pick.

 

 

I think it's more likely they circle back on Holtz. NJ has two 2nd's next year. Maybe Holtz, 2nd and 4th in 2025.

 

My guess is NJD doesn't plan to draft if they are offering the 10th overall pick. They want NHL ready players because Fitzgerald will be fired if they miss the playoffs again next year.  The 28th + Markstrom is fair value but it's not what NJD is looking for.

 

Maybe Markstrom 50% + Kadri at $1-mil retained per year would interest them more.  Kadri gives them Cup winning experience for their young team.  Has grit. Can play behind Hughes and Hischier on the depth charts.  Flames aren't Cup contenders for the next 4+ years so just retain the $1-mil on Kadri since we have to hit the cap floor anyways.