2023 Offseason

[The_People1]

49 minutes ago, Thebrewcrew said:

This is what I'd try to do with STL.

 

Hanifin

16th overall

Late round pick

To CGY

10th overall

One of STL's later 1st's

One of their two 3rd's

 

In my opinion, it will cost Hanifin + 16th just to move into the 10th spot.  And I don't think it's worth trading up because the gap in talent between 10 and 16 is too small.

 

I think STL will do Hanifin for their 30th pick all day long.  Maybe even the 29th.

 

Hanifin one year to UFA doesn't give the acquiring team enough long term security.  But also, it depends how teams view Hanifin.  He was great two years ago but looked very average this past year.  I personally view him as a 3/4 on the depth chart who has been challenged to play top pair and hasn't truly excelled.  He's more a second pair D.

[conundrumed]

St. Loo has 3 dmen longterm at $6.5 per, $6mil in cap space and need fwds and a solid backup goalie. There is zero chance they are taking on more cap for another dman.

Chicago for 2 2nds. They have 4.

Hanifin is going to cost an easy $6.5+, so decision time is lurking. Like every upcoming UFA.

[jjgallow]

9 hours ago, The_People1 said:

 

In my opinion, it will cost Hanifin + 16th just to move into the 10th spot.  And I don't think it's worth trading up because the gap in talent between 10 and 16 is too small.

 

I think STL will do Hanifin for their 30th pick all day long.  Maybe even the 29th.

 

Hanifin one year to UFA doesn't give the acquiring team enough long term security.  But also, it depends how teams view Hanifin.  He was great two years ago but looked very average this past year.  I personally view him as a 3/4 on the depth chart who has been challenged to play top pair and hasn't truly excelled.  He's more a second pair D.

 

I also don't personally see this trade as likely, in terms of St Louis objectives.   Admittedly the upgrades are hard this way because the needs of the teams picking in the top 10 are often not aligned.  There's some exceptions.

 

I'm interested in the hypothetical though.  It's not my favourite move but I Would do this move for Hanifin.   and I would do it over getting a straight-up 29th overall pick.   

 

Here's how I see, roughly, those picks:

 

10th Overall:  You're getting a Hanifin-caliber player.  Reinbacker or similar caliber likely availalble, who may actually have greater upside  (I don't like Hanifin lol).  50% or greater chance of success.

 

16th Overall:   On average, you're getting a mid-level NHLer here.  Some elite talent will drop but the chance of success is significantly lower.  50% chance of getting a reasonable player.   20% chance of a Hanifin-calibre player.

 

30th Overall:   On average, you're getting a role player.  5% chance of a Hanifin-calibre player.

 

 

These #s aren't perfect but you get the idea.    It's also a bit hard for me because I'm not a Hanifin fan.  But I acknowledge his elite skills.    

 

 

In terms of risk:

 

The riskiest thing you can do is keep Hanifin and then lose him for nothing or pennies.  It's also the most likely thing the Flames will do based on past experience.

 

The lowest risk thing you can do IMHO is go get that 10th overall.   On that move, you're basically saying you'll flip a coin, and if its heads, you get another younger Hanifin calibre player or potentially Better, at the start of their career.   50% isn't great but that's as good as it gets in the draft.   75% chance they'll be a serviceable NHLer, and good scouting can increase that 50% significantly.

 

The other suggested scenario of getting the 16th and 30th overall:   Even the two combined gives you maybe a 25% chance of getting another player of that calibre.    Sure yeah.  there is an incredibly small chance you'll get two Hanifins.  But basically that's not happening.  It's more likely to get no NHLers out of it at all than it is to get two Hanifins.

 

 

For me, that draft is mostly about finding those high calibre players.   Role players and even mid-level players can be acquired in many ways and are often free.    I mean yes it's nice to pick them up, but he draft is the only Sane way to acquire top talent and build teams around it.      So you do whatever gives you the best odds of accomplishing that.  Each draft has maybe 5-10 top players with low risk odds of success.  Then the risk increases exponentially from there.

 

This is why I don't like downgrades and I do like trading up, despite the cost.

 

[flames-fan-in-jets-land]

1 hour ago, jjgallow said:

 

I also don't personally see this trade as likely, in terms of St Louis objectives.   Admittedly the upgrades are hard this way because the needs of the teams picking in the top 10 are often not aligned.  There's some exceptions.

 

I'm interested in the hypothetical though.  It's not my favourite move but I Would do this move for Hanifin.   and I would do it over getting a straight-up 29th overall pick.   

 

Here's how I see, roughly, those picks:

 

10th Overall:  You're getting a Hanifin-caliber player.  Reinbacker or similar caliber likely availalble, who may actually have greater upside  (I don't like Hanifin lol).  50% or greater chance of success.

 

16th Overall:   On average, you're getting a mid-level NHLer here.  Some elite talent will drop but the chance of success is significantly lower.  50% chance of getting a reasonable player.   20% chance of a Hanifin-calibre player.

 

30th Overall:   On average, you're getting a role player.  5% chance of a Hanifin-calibre player.

 

 

These #s aren't perfect but you get the idea.    It's also a bit hard for me because I'm not a Hanifin fan.  But I acknowledge his elite skills.    

 

 

In terms of risk:

 

The riskiest thing you can do is keep Hanifin and then lose him for nothing or pennies.  It's also the most likely thing the Flames will do based on past experience.

 

The lowest risk thing you can do IMHO is go get that 10th overall.   On that move, you're basically saying you'll flip a coin, and if its heads, you get another younger Hanifin calibre player or potentially Better, at the start of their career.   50% isn't great but that's as good as it gets in the draft.   75% chance they'll be a serviceable NHLer, and good scouting can increase that 50% significantly.

 

The other suggested scenario of getting the 16th and 30th overall:   Even the two combined gives you maybe a 25% chance of getting another player of that calibre.    Sure yeah.  there is an incredibly small chance you'll get two Hanifins.  But basically that's not happening.  It's more likely to get no NHLers out of it at all than it is to get two Hanifins.

 

 

For me, that draft is mostly about finding those high calibre players.   Role players and even mid-level players can be acquired in many ways and are often free.    I mean yes it's nice to pick them up, but he draft is the only Sane way to acquire top talent and build teams around it.      So you do whatever gives you the best odds of accomplishing that.  Each draft has maybe 5-10 top players with low risk odds of success.  Then the risk increases exponentially from there.

 

This is why I don't like downgrades and I do like trading up, despite the cost.

 

Some parties may consider that the possible onset of the R word.

[jjgallow]

49 minutes ago, flames-fan-in-jets-land said:

Some parties may consider that the possible onset of the R word.

 

Exactly.     Especially for those who were ho-hum on the Gaudreau/Bennet/Monahan/Tkachuk exits, which were totally normal and not part of a rebuild at all.

 

[The_People1]

14 hours ago, jjgallow said:

 

I also don't personally see this trade as likely, in terms of St Louis objectives.   Admittedly the upgrades are hard this way because the needs of the teams picking in the top 10 are often not aligned.  There's some exceptions.

 

I'm interested in the hypothetical though.  It's not my favourite move but I Would do this move for Hanifin.   and I would do it over getting a straight-up 29th overall pick.   

 

Here's how I see, roughly, those picks:

 

10th Overall:  You're getting a Hanifin-caliber player.  Reinbacker or similar caliber likely availalble, who may actually have greater upside  (I don't like Hanifin lol).  50% or greater chance of success.

 

16th Overall:   On average, you're getting a mid-level NHLer here.  Some elite talent will drop but the chance of success is significantly lower.  50% chance of getting a reasonable player.   20% chance of a Hanifin-calibre player.

 

30th Overall:   On average, you're getting a role player.  5% chance of a Hanifin-calibre player.

 

 

These #s aren't perfect but you get the idea.    It's also a bit hard for me because I'm not a Hanifin fan.  But I acknowledge his elite skills.    

 

 

In terms of risk:

 

The riskiest thing you can do is keep Hanifin and then lose him for nothing or pennies.  It's also the most likely thing the Flames will do based on past experience.

 

The lowest risk thing you can do IMHO is go get that 10th overall.   On that move, you're basically saying you'll flip a coin, and if its heads, you get another younger Hanifin calibre player or potentially Better, at the start of their career.   50% isn't great but that's as good as it gets in the draft.   75% chance they'll be a serviceable NHLer, and good scouting can increase that 50% significantly.

 

The other suggested scenario of getting the 16th and 30th overall:   Even the two combined gives you maybe a 25% chance of getting another player of that calibre.    Sure yeah.  there is an incredibly small chance you'll get two Hanifins.  But basically that's not happening.  It's more likely to get no NHLers out of it at all than it is to get two Hanifins.

 

 

For me, that draft is mostly about finding those high calibre players.   Role players and even mid-level players can be acquired in many ways and are often free.    I mean yes it's nice to pick them up, but he draft is the only Sane way to acquire top talent and build teams around it.      So you do whatever gives you the best odds of accomplishing that.  Each draft has maybe 5-10 top players with low risk odds of success.  Then the risk increases exponentially from there.

 

This is why I don't like downgrades and I do like trading up, despite the cost.

 

 

In this draft, it's not meaningful to trade up unless we trade up into the top 6 or 7.  But dream on because it's going to cost a super star player to trade into the top 6 or 7 and we don't have that.  The talent gap between 8 to 18 is too close to call so no need to move up or down.

 

And Hanifin is a good player.  Don't give him away for nothing.  The problem here is the time to trade for picks was the TDL... because when teams are going into the playoffs, they need to address injuries and add healthy fresh bodies for a long playoff run.  The price for fresh bodies at the TDL is 2x what it normally should be.

 

The worst time to trade for picks is between now and the draft floor.  The more draft scouting you do, the more FOMO you feel.  The more you want to add more picks.  Thus, the price for picks is 2x what it normally should be.

 

If we insist on trading Hanifin on the draft floor, don't expect very much.

[jjgallow]

21 minutes ago, The_People1 said:

 

In this draft, it's not meaningful to trade up unless we trade up into the top 6 or 7.  But dream on because it's going to cost a super star player to trade into the top 6 or 7 and we don't have that.  The talent gap between 8 to 18 is too close to call so no need to move up or down.

 

And Hanifin is a good player.  Don't give him away for nothing.  The problem here is the time to trade for picks was the TDL... because when teams are going into the playoffs, they need to address injuries and add healthy fresh bodies for a long playoff run.  The price for fresh bodies at the TDL is 2x what it normally should be.

 

The worst time to trade for picks is between now and the draft floor.  The more draft scouting you do, the more FOMO you feel.  The more you want to add more picks.  Thus, the price for picks is 2x what it normally should be.

 

If we insist on trading Hanifin on the draft floor, don't expect very much.

 

Yup, tdl was the time.   Thing about selling him to contenders though, they don't usually have top 10 picks.  at least not of current year.   Those trades gotta be made well in advance.

 

I haven't got around to making my draft list yet.   don't disagree that top 7 would be better.  

 

Trades can still happen though as there's always a team willing to make poor decisions with their picks

 

like us

[The_People1]

4 minutes ago, jjgallow said:

 

Yup, tdl was the time.   Thing about selling him to contenders though, they don't usually have top 10 picks.  at least not of current year.   Those trades gotta be made well in advance.

 

I haven't got around to making my draft list yet.   don't disagree that top 7 would be better.  

 

Trades can still happen though as there's always a team willing to make poor decisions with their picks

 

like us

 

Well, let's hope there's a team that likes Hanifin a lot.  I think the Flames should listen to any offers that includes a pick in this draft or the next.  

[medatswhoP]

2 hours ago, The_People1 said:

 

Well, let's hope there's a team that likes Hanifin a lot.  I think the Flames should listen to any offers that includes a pick in this draft or the next.  

100% agree here... oops, make that 110% if there is such a thing.

[jjgallow]

8 hours ago, The_People1 said:

 

Well, let's hope there's a team that likes Hanifin a lot.  I think the Flames should listen to any offers that includes a pick in this draft or the next.  

 

I agree.

 

My only concern is that I feel the Flames will shop him around because they think they are loaded on D already.  which I don't feel is accurate.   I'm more coming from the angle that I don't think he's particularly good at D anyway.

 

Toffoli coming off an unusually good year would also make sense, or Lindholm etc.  That would go over like lead baloons of course.

[flames-fan-in-jets-land]

1 hour ago, jjgallow said:

 

I agree.

 

My only concern is that I feel the Flames will shop him around because they think they are loaded on D already.  which I don't feel is accurate.   I'm more coming from the angle that I don't think he's particularly good at D anyway.

 

Toffoli coming off an unusually good year would also make sense, or Lindholm etc.  That would go over like lead baloons of course.

Loaded no, but I dont think moving him and not replacing him sets them back too much. I dont follow any of the advanced stats and it was a limited viewing but I liked Stecher. If Hanifin goes (dont forget he has an 8 team no trade list) then you sign Stetcher to a 1 year term for the same money. Re sign Stone for the exact role and money hes had (Tanev is always an injury risk) and leave an open spot for one of the farm guys, they can be third pair with Tanev if needed.  Savings on Hanifins contract basically washes out with Hubies raise.

[travel_dude]

2 hours ago, jjgallow said:

 

I agree.

 

My only concern is that I feel the Flames will shop him around because they think they are loaded on D already.  which I don't feel is accurate.   I'm more coming from the angle that I don't think he's particularly good at D anyway.

 

Toffoli coming off an unusually good year would also make sense, or Lindholm etc.  That would go over like lead baloons of course.

 

Set on D is really just an opinion.  Yes, we have 6 D signed for next season.  Yes, they are capable D.  Yes, they are adequate D.  With a decent goalie, they would have been adequate (with Kylington).  I just think you always have to balance the team according to what you have for the rest of the team.  You don't need 4 stud D if you have 3 backchecking C's.  You don't need offensive D if you have guys that can move the puck.

 

You use your trade assets to build in another area.  It's the overall package that has to be balanced.  Lose an offensive D to get an offensive C or W.  Lose a offnsive winger to get a defensive D.  I think you can graduate the offensive D easier than the defensive D.  You almost need to go trade for those types.  Kuz maay be on his way to that, but still some time away from it.  Not sure about the othes we have on the farm.

 

Stone is a offensive guy with a good shot and is hard on other players, but not otherwise good defensively.

Hanifin is good with the puck, but not great holding liines or backchecking.  Not good near the blue paint.

Tanev is great except lacks size to ckear the front of the net.

Zaddy should be great in front of the net but seems to wander.  Good offensively.

Kyling is hybrid.  Probably has the better chance ast being good in all ares.

Decision making is sometimes suspect.

Strong on his skates and fast at both ends.

Ras is a bit smaller than the way he plays.

Weegar is pretty good all round.

Good in close.

 

Keep Stone as a 7th.

Trade Hanifin to upgrade somethng else.

Replace Tanev with a younger Tanev.

The rest are not the issue.

[flames-fan-in-jets-land]

50 minutes ago, travel_dude said:

 

Set on D is really just an opinion.  Yes, we have 6 D signed for next season.  Yes, they are capable D.  Yes, they are adequate D.  With a decent goalie, they would have been adequate (with Kylington).  I just think you always have to balance the team according to what you have for the rest of the team.  You don't need 4 stud D if you have 3 backchecking C's.  You don't need offensive D if you have guys that can move the puck.

 

You use your trade assets to build in another area.  It's the overall package that has to be balanced.  Lose an offensive D to get an offensive C or W.  Lose a offnsive winger to get a defensive D.  I think you can graduate the offensive D easier than the defensive D.  You almost need to go trade for those types.  Kuz maay be on his way to that, but still some time away from it.  Not sure about the othes we have on the farm.

 

Stone is a offensive guy with a good shot and is hard on other players, but not otherwise good defensively.

Hanifin is good with the puck, but not great holding liines or backchecking.  Not good near the blue paint.

Tanev is great except lacks size to ckear the front of the net.

Zaddy should be great in front of the net but seems to wander.  Good offensively.

Kyling is hybrid.  Probably has the better chance ast being good in all ares.

Decision making is sometimes suspect.

Strong on his skates and fast at both ends.

Ras is a bit smaller than the way he plays.

Weegar is pretty good all round.

Good in close.

 

Keep Stone as a 7th.

Trade Hanifin to upgrade somethng else.

Replace Tanev with a younger Tanev.

The rest are not the issue.

I forgot all about Kylington. His status changes line up options alot.  I think Tanev would be the next in line to move out but where does that leave you defensively? Do you ship out your defence first veteran in hopes Kylington gets back up to game speed quickly? And does that leave any hope or room for anyone trying to make the jump from the Wranglers?

[jjgallow]

 

FWIW I think it best we not make any assumptions about Kylington at this time.

 

Player returns have their corresponding batting averages.  We lack info.

 

Probably best to not make any assumptions about whether Kylington can return to a form where he cracks the lineup.

 

If he ends up being our 1A then great, it's not going to hurt.

[travel_dude]

59 minutes ago, flames-fan-in-jets-land said:

I forgot all about Kylington. His status changes line up options alot.  I think Tanev would be the next in line to move out but where does that leave you defensively? Do you ship out your defence first veteran in hopes Kylington gets back up to game speed quickly? And does that leave any hope or room for anyone trying to make the jump from the Wranglers?

 

I'm not suggesting you need to trade Tanev today, just that his age and injury history makes him a weak link for the futire.  If he was as injury free as 21/22 (except the playoffs) I woulnd't be so worried.  But the injuries are starting to catch up with him and he is getting older.  Could be fine or he could be heading downward.  I would use Backlund to get you a younger defensive D and use Tanev to get you a decent C/W.  Trade has to be before he declines.

 

Sounds a bit scattered I get it.  You have to make trades while players still have value though.  Or they are just declining in importance and you keep them like TOR uses Gio.

[travel_dude]

Just now, jjgallow said:

 

FWIW I think it best we not make any assumptions about Kylington at this time.

 

Player returns have their corresponding batting averages.  We lack info.

 

Probably best to not make any assumptions about whether Kylington can return to a form where he cracks the lineup.

 

If he ends up being our 1A then great, it's not going to hurt.

 

If it's not physical, then it's just getting the IQ focused.  Who knows, it may have caused a decline in performance last season he played.  I don't presume anything, just that when a player appears to be mentally ready to play, it's shows up before the physical part.  In his cae, the physical part has never been in question.

[robrob74]

13 hours ago, jjgallow said:

 

Yup, tdl was the time.   Thing about selling him to contenders though, they don't usually have top 10 picks.  at least not of current year.   Those trades gotta be made well in advance.

 

I haven't got around to making my draft list yet.   don't disagree that top 7 would be better.  

 

Trades can still happen though as there's always a team willing to make poor decisions with their picks

 

like us

so do we trade to Cup contenders and ask for their 2028 first rounder? An example of when they may bottom out lol. 

[jjgallow]

1 hour ago, travel_dude said:

 

Yes, they are capable D.  Yes, they are adequate D. 

 

I'm not saying you're wrong about last year, it's really hard to say for certain.  I am less confident that they were adequate.

 

With them generally being not that young, I'm not expecting them to be adequate next year.  I could be wrong if Rasmus makes a major jump etc.  But on the whole, they old and getting slow

[robrob74]

Just now, travel_dude said:

 

If it's not physical, then it's just getting the IQ focused.  Who knows, it may have caused a decline in performance last season he played.  I don't presume anything, just that when a player appears to be mentally ready to play, it's shows up before the physical part.  In his cae, the physical part has never been in question.

my problem with Kylington is, up until Sutter, no other coaches liked him. He sat for them and then Sutter wouldn't put him in in the middle of a playoff run that we ultimately missed in the end, or lost in the Covid season. 
 

but he really only has one season under his belt, spent a good portion of seasons practicing... maybe not a lot of game time means a fresh body.

[robrob74]

7 minutes ago, travel_dude said:

 

I'm not suggesting you need to trade Tanev today, just that his age and injury history makes him a weak link for the futire.  If he was as injury free as 21/22 (except the playoffs) I woulnd't be so worried.  But the injuries are starting to catch up with him and he is getting older.  Could be fine or he could be heading downward.  I would use Backlund to get you a younger defensive D and use Tanev to get you a decent C/W.  Trade has to be before he declines.

 

Sounds a bit scattered I get it.  You have to make trades while players still have value though.  Or they are just declining in importance and you keep them like TOR uses Gio.

I get it, one team won't want to trade a c for a c so you go d for a c and then a d for a c. Only way they may want to go c for c is if they feel their c needs an upgrade. 

[jjgallow]

5 minutes ago, travel_dude said:

 

If it's not physical, then it's just getting the IQ focused.  Who knows, it may have caused a decline in performance last season he played.  I don't presume anything, just that when a player appears to be mentally ready to play, it's shows up before the physical part.  In his cae, the physical part has never been in question.

 

Could be.   the mental part is a big, wide ranging scope of possibilities.   Couldn't say.  if there is an inner circle on this one I am not in it lol

[robrob74]

1 hour ago, flames-fan-in-jets-land said:

I forgot all about Kylington. His status changes line up options alot.  I think Tanev would be the next in line to move out but where does that leave you defensively? Do you ship out your defence first veteran in hopes Kylington gets back up to game speed quickly? And does that leave any hope or room for anyone trying to make the jump from the Wranglers?

trade Tanev and Hanifin. Sign Stone. 

Sign Gudas if he didn't get a contract
 

Weegar, Andersson

Kylington, Gudas

Zadorov, Prospects

Stone.
 

call up the kids in and out to form third pair D? 
 

Andersson might be our best trade chip though.

[flames-fan-in-jets-land]

7 minutes ago, robrob74 said:

trade Tanev and Hanifin. Sign Stone. 

Sign Gudas if he didn't get a contract
 

Weegar, Andersson

Kylington, Gudas

Zadorov, Prospects

Stone.
 

call up the kids in and out to form third pair D? 
 

Andersson might be our best trade chip though.

The longer the Cats play the more Gudas's contract will cost, and at 33 years old I think thats the wrong direction the team needs. I'm hoping with a new direction in mgmt the Flames start straying away from those types of deals. 

[robrob74]

1 hour ago, flames-fan-in-jets-land said:

The longer the Cats play the more Gudas's contract will cost, and at 33 years old I think thats the wrong direction the team needs. I'm hoping with a new direction in mgmt the Flames start straying away from those types of deals. 

I think Tanev was always injury prone. That type of D isn't always bad. I liked Engelland when he was with the Flames. 
 

I think that type of D works when insulating youth. We don't really have that in the system ready next season. I wouldn't sign him long term, maybe a 3 year deal? 
 

I really like Tanev, but he's breaking down a lot. 

[travel_dude]

6 hours ago, robrob74 said:

I get it, one team won't want to trade a c for a c so you go d for a c and then a d for a c. Only way they may want to go c for c is if they feel their c needs an upgrade. 

 

Yeah, that is what I was thinking.  The value of Hanifin is to a team that doesn't have a young offensive D but has wealth of forwards.  The Backlund thingy is trading a vet to a young team that has lots of D.  It may not make us better in the interim.