2023 Calgary Flames NHL Draft

[travel_dude]

3 hours ago, jjgallow said:

3/4 are Aweful to trade.    Hanifin's kinda useless imho.   

 

17 minutes ago, jjgallow said:

 

I never said Hanifin didn't have value lol.  He has huge value, I'm just not a huge fan.  The other 3, absolutely I am.

 

and I'm a huge fan of Backlund.  Yeah man if you can get a first for Backlund, do it.  But don't  waste your time for a 3rd rounder, he's more valuable within the organisation than that.

 

I read that as he has no value.  I wasn't sure who was aweful to trade or wgat that really means.

[jjgallow]

1 hour ago, travel_dude said:

 

 

I read that as he has no value.  I wasn't sure who was aweful to trade or wgat that really means.

 

fair.

 

Backlund's not going to get you a first rounder so imho he's got more value to the organization, he is after all our ironman now.  Find me a first rounder out of him my opinion changes.

 

Hanifin's gonna get you first+, and I think he is a defensive liability so a trade here could work well.

 

Toffoli, Lindholm, Rasmus are all high value assets for good reason, aweful to trade because they Suck to lose.

 

But they could take years off the rebuild we're "not having".    I don't expect the organisation to move quickly enough on them until it's too late.  I've already sort of prepared myself for that.   They are at that awkward age where the 3 of them is not enough to get us anywhere meaninful now, and they will be well outside of their peak, or retired, the next time we are contenders.  

 

Simply put, letting them compete for the cup elsewhere is a thank you to them, and an opportunity for us to become contenders sooner.    

 

But probably wont' happen because it is mega painful.   Thus "Aweful to trade".

[conundrumed]

So before we trade the whole team for picks and only have an AHL team left, is there anyone slated to go in rd 2 that anyone's interested in? Around the 45-50 mark. I wouldn't be against RD Cam Allen, although I'm not sure if he'll make it past 40ish.

We don't have a 3rd or 5th, but if there's a scouting group that can hit in the later rounds, I'd say ours is pretty stealthy.

The 1st rder can be a number of players to make a case for, the 2nd and 4th will be important.

I'll just say it now, I don't really see any Scandinavian fwds that impress me much.

And I'm not thinking that this draft is a lot deeper than your average draft. A coupla bonafide studs, a handful of high potential and then scout hard. Same as every draft. Next year will be the same. Queue the Mack Celebrini fanfare. What is up with these Van kids? Do we have to start scouting Atom there?lol

[robrob74]

Well, we could get passed by Pit, Nsh, or Buf. They're all still fighting for playoffs.

 

pit has 2 games left and 90 points. 1 behind us but the same winning percentage. Their games are Chi and CBJ. They want in so...

 

NSH and are 3 points from Wpg with 2 games left. Wpg also has 2 games left so I hope Nsh still has some hope. But we cannot catch Wpg.

 

Buf has 87 Points with 3 games left. If we tie in points, we have 30RW to Buf 29, but we have 35ROW to their 37ROW... I think we might beat a tie breaker due to the 30-29RW. But they may win a few more and leap us on the RW. We need that to overtake them.

 

We need the Islanders and the Panthers to continue to fight for a spot and if all that happens and we lose, best we do is 13th overall. 
 

does that mean the best we can draft in that scenario would be 3rd  or 4th overall?

 

 

 

 

 

 

[travel_dude]

56 minutes ago, robrob74 said:

Well, we could get passed by Pit, Nsh, or Buf. They're all still fighting for playoffs.

 

pit has 2 games left and 90 points. 1 behind us but the same winning percentage. Their games are Chi and CBJ. They want in so...

 

NSH and are 3 points from Wpg with 2 games left. Wpg also has 2 games left so I hope Nsh still has some hope. But we cannot catch Wpg.

 

Buf has 87 Points with 3 games left. If we tie in points, we have 30RW to Buf 29, but we have 35ROW to their 37ROW... I think we might beat a tie breaker due to the 30-29RW. But they may win a few more and leap us on the RW. We need that to overtake them.

 

We need the Islanders and the Panthers to continue to fight for a spot and if all that happens and we lose, best we do is 13th overall. 
 

does that mean the best we can draft in that scenario would be 3rd  or 4th overall?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Okay, so BUF currently has 29 RW to our 30.

We have a possible 31 RW and 36 ROW.

BUF has a possible 32 RW and 40 ROW.

In a tie where they get at least 2 RW to our 1 but still get 3 wins, they overtake us.

 

NAS and WPG are still fighting for their lives.

Even BUF is there.

I would forgo playing new guys in game 82 or even starting Wolf.

Not the right atmosphere to bring those guys in.

It's pretty toxic now.

 

[jjgallow]

8 hours ago, conundrumed said:

So before we trade the whole team for picks and only have an AHL team left, is there anyone slated to go in rd 2 that anyone's interested in? Around the 45-50 mark. I wouldn't be against RD Cam Allen, although I'm not sure if he'll make it past 40ish.

We don't have a 3rd or 5th, but if there's a scouting group that can hit in the later rounds, I'd say ours is pretty stealthy.

The 1st rder can be a number of players to make a case for, the 2nd and 4th will be important.

I'll just say it now, I don't really see any Scandinavian fwds that impress me much.

And I'm not thinking that this draft is a lot deeper than your average draft. A coupla bonafide studs, a handful of high potential and then scout hard. Same as every draft. Next year will be the same. Queue the Mack Celebrini fanfare. What is up with these Van kids? Do we have to start scouting Atom there?lol

 

Agreed with the whole general idea above,

 

A few points:   On the massive teardown that I propose every year that looks like more tempting each year lol:

     IMHO go big or go home, if we're doing that we're hopefully getting some 1sts.

 

On Scandinavians this year:  Yeah.

 

On the 2023 draft:   We don't necessarily need to trade for 2023 draft picks.  We Should consider trading for picks...of ...  Any year.  The reason to argue for trading now is not this year's draft, rather because our last 4 valuable players are not getting any younger and neither is their contract term.

  - With the exception of Michkov.  He's worth gunning for.

 

On 2nd + rounders:  Yeah I see good stuff.  But like you say, not seeing much different from other years.  I initially expected to.

 

 

[travel_dude]

5 minutes ago, jjgallow said:

 

Agreed with the whole general idea above,

 

A few points:   On the massive teardown that I propose every year that looks like more tempting each year lol:

     IMHO go big or go home, if we're doing that we're hopefully getting some 1sts.

 

On Scandinavians this year:  Yeah.

 

On the 2023 draft:   We don't necessarily need to trade for 2023 draft picks.  We Should consider trading for picks...of ...  Any year.  The reason to argue for trading now is not this year's draft, rather because our last 4 valuable players are not getting any younger and neither is their contract term.

  - With the exception of Michkov.  He's worth gunning for.

 

On 2nd + rounders:  Yeah I see good stuff.  But like you say, not seeing much different from other years.  I initially expected to.

 

 

 

If you are able to get a 1st for anyone not named Lindholm (since you are signing him), I would suggest that 2024 is a better gamble.  Teams may fall from grace.  At worst, you end up with a similar pick to the Flames.  

 

I just don't see anyone being worth that.  And I don't see a teardown even possible.  To do so, you have to trade anyone and everyone you can.  There is a list of players you can't trade and that's due to recent deals.  

[jjgallow]

2 hours ago, travel_dude said:

 

If you are able to get a 1st for anyone not named Lindholm (since you are signing him), I would suggest that 2024 is a better gamble.  Teams may fall from grace.  At worst, you end up with a similar pick to the Flames.  

 

I just don't see anyone being worth that.  And I don't see a teardown even possible.  To do so, you have to trade anyone and everyone you can.  There is a list of players you can't trade and that's due to recent deals.  

 

I was initially very big on this year but more recently, I agree. 2024 is fine and would probably get a better deal out of it.

[travel_dude]

3 minutes ago, jjgallow said:

 

I was initially very big on this year but more recently, I agree. 2024 is fine and would probably get a better deal out of it.

 

Teams already know their seeding for rounds 2-7.  May be some movement in Round 1.  Either way, teams are not taking chances before the draft.  Not unless it's a steal.

[jjgallow]

4 minutes ago, travel_dude said:

 

Teams already know their seeding for rounds 2-7.  May be some movement in Round 1.  Either way, teams are not taking chances before the draft.  Not unless it's a steal.

 

Agreed.  Best time is TDL.  But, then we may never have seen Nick Ritchie's sick moves.  So, obviously, right decision made there.

 

Second best time is probably after the draft, and right before regular season when teams realizing they are desperate for certain pieces that the 2024 draft is not going to help them with.

[travel_dude]

4 minutes ago, jjgallow said:

 

Agreed.  Best time is TDL.  But, then we may never have seen Nick Ritchie's sick moves.  So, obviously, right decision made there.

 

Second best time is probably after the draft, and right before regular season when teams realizing they are desperate for certain pieces that the 2024 draft is not going to help them with.

 

For Backlund, the best times would be before UFA day and at TDL.  Same is true of Tanev and Hanifin.  I am actually okay with keeping Toffoli.  I think he and Lindholm would have had an even better season if they had Huberdeau once he was used to the team.  

 

We had nothing to trade last TDL.  Maybe it was the time to trade Vladar, since he was still cheap.  Dube probably holds similar value if not more than Backlund.  Not a great season, but he was not well used.  

 

None of this is due to wanting to strip the team down and rebuild.  This is about needing to get value for players while they have any.  Backlund's best season to date.  Hanifin looking good.  Tanev is the warrior that teams need, but may be better to trade at TDL.  The thing about TDL is we rarely sell.  We are always somehow still in it.  Even when we get eliminated, we are close.  There isn't the smart GM (and coach advice) that says sell regardless of where you are.  You have to prepare for next season and position yourself to win more than just a round.  

[travel_dude]

Not related to drafting, but I found this gem.  Rod's son.

 

Frank Seravalli

@frank_seravalli

 

Hearing @QU_MIH national champion Skyler Brind'Amour will not be signing with the #Oilers. Brind'Amour will become an unrestricted free agent on Aug. 15.

7:57 AM · Apr 11, 2023

[jjgallow]

 

So,

 

I know some of you on here focus too much on stats, and I've never liked it but learned to accept it.

 

Thing is,  point/goal totals often, very often, are extremely misleading.

 

But on the other hand, every year there's a couple surprises, guys like Jason Robertson, a 2nd round pick..

 

Robertson, for instance, if you just liked at his #s that year, he was at VERY least a  top 10 pick if not higher.  But for whatever reason, some on here will be able to explain it better than me, he went in the 2nd round.

 

On that note though, just as numbers can fail, it is sometimes possible for scouting to fail.  Who knows.   Bad parent interview.  Bad read on the skating.  I dunno.

 

But for what it's worth, I'm gong to make a short list of Some of the biggest statistical anomalies this draft.

 

Players ranked far lower than their stats suggest they should be.  For whatever reason.  comments welcome.

 

 

Colby Barlow:   https://www.eliteprospects.com/player/603562/colby-barlow

                   Ranked high, but not nearly as high as his stats would suggest.
                   Dunno why, I'm sure there's good reasons.  He's a LW, so that's one reason.

                         That said, for the Truly top elite players, I think they are rare in All positions, even LW.

 

Gabe Perrault:  https://www.eliteprospects.com/player/637625/gabe-perreault

                   The second-most known prospect on this list.

                     Hockey in his blood.   Hardly under-scouted.  Another LHS Winger like above,

                     USHL is a bit easier but his numbers are Crazy.  Barely ranked in the first round.  Quite the discount.

 

 

These next two guys are ranked in that "Jason Robertson" spot, low 1st round to high 2nd round:

    Both have earily similar stats, seemingly out-of-place for their ranking.  One is in the BCJHL though.

         Neither are eye-popping stats as Robertson.  The closest I see to that would be Perreault above.

https://www.eliteprospects.com/player/564977/koehn-ziemmer

https://www.eliteprospects.com/player/619153/bradly-nadeau

 

 

Last but possibly not leaset, Aydar Suniev:  https://www.eliteprospects.com/player/620335/aydar-suniev

             Ranked low 2nd round, or even 3rd.

          Insane #s, but again BCJHL, so hard to read.

 

 

Ok so I only looked at North American here, that's all the time I got for now.

[Thebrewcrew]

1 hour ago, jjgallow said:

 

So,

 

I know some of you on here focus too much on stats, and I've never liked it but learned to accept it.

 

Thing is,  point/goal totals often, very often, are extremely misleading.

 

But on the other hand, every year there's a couple surprises, guys like Jason Robertson, a 2nd round pick..

 

Robertson, for instance, if you just liked at his #s that year, he was at VERY least a  top 10 pick if not higher.  But for whatever reason, some on here will be able to explain it better than me, he went in the 2nd round.

 

On that note though, just as numbers can fail, it is sometimes possible for scouting to fail.  Who knows.   Bad parent interview.  Bad read on the skating.  I dunno.

 

But for what it's worth, I'm gong to make a short list of Some of the biggest statistical anomalies this draft.

 

Players ranked far lower than their stats suggest they should be.  For whatever reason.  comments welcome.

 

 

Colby Barlow:   https://www.eliteprospects.com/player/603562/colby-barlow

                   Ranked high, but not nearly as high as his stats would suggest.
                   Dunno why, I'm sure there's good reasons.  He's a LW, so that's one reason.

                         That said, for the Truly top elite players, I think they are rare in All positions, even LW.

 

Gabe Perrault:  https://www.eliteprospects.com/player/637625/gabe-perreault

                   The second-most known prospect on this list.

                     Hockey in his blood.   Hardly under-scouted.  Another LHS Winger like above,

                     USHL is a bit easier but his numbers are Crazy.  Barely ranked in the first round.  Quite the discount.

 

 

These next two guys are ranked in that "Jason Robertson" spot, low 1st round to high 2nd round:

    Both have earily similar stats, seemingly out-of-place for their ranking.  One is in the BCJHL though.

         Neither are eye-popping stats as Robertson.  The closest I see to that would be Perreault above.

https://www.eliteprospects.com/player/564977/koehn-ziemmer

https://www.eliteprospects.com/player/619153/bradly-nadeau

 

 

Last but possibly not leaset, Aydar Suniev:  https://www.eliteprospects.com/player/620335/aydar-suniev

             Ranked low 2nd round, or even 3rd.

          Insane #s, but again BCJHL, so hard to read.

 

 

Ok so I only looked at North American here, that's all the time I got for now.

Barlow likely goes in the 7-12 range. The question with him will be his skating. Captain already. He will be long gone before Calgary picks.

 

I like Perreault. He should be on the board when the Flames pick. The NTDP kids are always tricky to evaluate. His production was excellent, but he did play with Will Smith. Smith is excellent and likely goes in the 4-6 range. I like Gabe's game much more than his older brother when he was eligible.

 

Ziemmer is a good player too. Skating is a concern though. 15th would be too early to take him IMO.

 

Personally, my #1 target is Heidt right now. But very much still going through the process of watching as much shift to shift video as I can.

[travel_dude]

7 minutes ago, Thebrewcrew said:

Barlow likely goes in the 7-12 range. The question with him will be his skating. Captain already. He will be long gone before Calgary picks.

 

I like Perreault. He should be on the board when the Flames pick. The NTDP kids are always tricky to evaluate. His production was excellent, but he did play with Will Smith. Smith is excellent and likely goes in the 4-6 range. I like Gabe's game much more than his older brother when he was eligible.

 

Ziemmer is a good player too. Skating is a concern though. 15th would be too early to take him IMO.

 

Personally, my #1 target is Heidt right now. But very much still going through the process of watching as much shift to shift video as I can.

 

Think positively.

We shall win the lotto and jump to 3-6th.

[jjgallow]

7 hours ago, travel_dude said:

 

Think positively.

We shall win the lotto and jump to 3-6th.

 

My thoughts too

[travel_dude]

57 minutes ago, jjgallow said:

 

My thoughts too

 

Rev up that simulator

[jjgallow]

25 minutes ago, travel_dude said:

 

Rev up that simulator

 

I think it's broken:  https://www.tankathon.com/nhl/mock_draft

 

believe you me, I've been doing my part.

 

it has us at 15th.  but it will Not move.

 

Say we finish at 15th... we can move up to 5th, can we not?  That was my understanding, 3% chance.

[travel_dude]

7 minutes ago, jjgallow said:

 

I think it's broken:  https://www.tankathon.com/nhl/mock_draft

 

believe you me, I've been doing my part.

 

it has us at 15th.  but it will Not move.

 

Say we finish at 15th... we can move up to 5th, can we not?  That was my understanding, 3% chance.

 

I am still banking on 13th, but that looks remote.

Yes, we can move up 10.

[jjgallow]

3 minutes ago, travel_dude said:

 

I am still banking on 13th, but that looks remote.

Yes, we can move up 10.

 

Sometimes the Flames make a late surge for no useful reason at all.

 

But I don't see it this year.   There  is an animosity in the air.   I think they will go for that 13th.

 

Then we just need lady luck to give us 3rd overall.

 

I'm counting on it

[travel_dude]

Just now, jjgallow said:

 

Sometimes the Flames make a late surge for no useful reason at all.

 

But I don't see it this year.   There  is an animosity in the air.   I think they will go for that 13th.

 

Then we just need lady luck to give us 3rd overall.

 

I'm counting on it

 

Need Buff to win out and NAS to do the same.

[jjgallow]

9 minutes ago, travel_dude said:

 

Need Buff to win out and NAS to do the same.

 

I like our chances with Buf.    NAS doable.

[jjgallow]

9 hours ago, Thebrewcrew said:

Barlow likely goes in the 7-12 range. The question with him will be his skating. Captain already. He will be long gone before Calgary picks.

 

I like Perreault. He should be on the board when the Flames pick. The NTDP kids are always tricky to evaluate. His production was excellent, but he did play with Will Smith. Smith is excellent and likely goes in the 4-6 range. I like Gabe's game much more than his older brother when he was eligible.

 

Ziemmer is a good player too. Skating is a concern though. 15th would be too early to take him IMO.

 

Personally, my #1 target is Heidt right now. But very much still going through the process of watching as much shift to shift video as I can.

 

 

 

 

Cool.

 

So, yeah.   That's high producing.   Why didn't he come up in my list of statistical anomalies, you might ask?

 

Answer is it was weighted on goals.    In the NHL, Assists are extremely important.   but I seem to find with prospects that assists are just not very reliable.  Probably because of their greater dependence on the surrounding team.

 

From a goals perspective he has not shown much improvement year over year, where some of his peers have doubled their goal totals.

 

Could be lots of reasons for it, but that's why he didn't jump onto the list.

[Thebrewcrew]

8 hours ago, jjgallow said:

 

 

 

 

Cool.

 

So, yeah.   That's high producing.   Why didn't he come up in my list of statistical anomalies, you might ask?

 

Answer is it was weighted on goals.    In the NHL, Assists are extremely important.   but I seem to find with prospects that assists are just not very reliable.  Probably because of their greater dependence on the surrounding team.

 

From a goals perspective he has not shown much improvement year over year, where some of his peers have doubled their goal totals.

 

Could be lots of reasons for it, but that's why he didn't jump onto the list.

For me, with Heidt, I don't worry so much about goal scoring.

 

It's the ability to drive play, transport the puck and create plays I really like in his game.

 

The Flames don't have anyone on the NHL roster that's especially good at those things. It's not in the pipeline either.

 

Normally, I've been all in on taking a RHS or a D, they just haven't done a good job in that regard. I'd still be in favor of it, but right now Heidt is really interesting to me.

[robrob74]

13 minutes ago, Thebrewcrew said:

For me, with Heidt, I don't worry so much about goal scoring.

 

It's the ability to drive play, transport the puck and create plays I really like in his game.

 

The Flames don't have anyone on the NHL roster that's especially good at those things. It's not in the pipeline either.

 

Normally, I've been all in on taking a RHS or a D, they just haven't done a good job in that regard. I'd still be in favor of it, but right now Heidt is really interesting to me.

 

that's where I don't know if a true plan had been thought up. We've drafted better, but i might be ignorant; I just haven't seen a true plan of attack in drafting or team building. 
 

maybe they thought Johnny would be here longer, but we still need younger play-drivers if Johnny was still in Calgary.