2021 Offseason Thread

[The_People1]

2 hours ago, bosn111 said:

In reality, the Flames should be looking for at least 1 more middle experience RHD. A more experienced LHD who could help stabilize would be nice but less necessary. Cost to acquire that LHD would likely be prohibitive.

 

I feel that veteran RHS RD is Michael Stone.  If we can get him signed to $1-mil-per for 2-years... not bad because Sutter likes him and he did well under Sutter.  He is perfect 3rd pair RD for the price.  Anyone else via UFA will cost $4-mil-per and that's not ideal given our cap situation.

[The_People1]

6 minutes ago, bosn111 said:

As I have stated before, I am all about asset management for the betterment of the team short and long term. I don’t want an extended wallowing at the bottom waiting for high draft picks. As the cap will not likely increase much in the next few years, we won’t be able to retain all of Monahan, Gaudreau and Tkachuk while bringing in other big names. Simple math here folks.

 

So time to move at least some, if not all, for longer, cheaper contracts. Can keep middling short term while building for a brighter future. Don’t need to crash to get better.

 

My thoughts anyways.

 

It's unrealistic to win short and long term anything.  Pick one.

 

I also don't believe we need to wallow in the basement for long if we move all of our big assets for futures... like Gaudreau for Mercer.  Monahan for Foerster.  Just moving those two for pure high end prospects means we going to compete for bottom 3 next season.  Target Shane Wright or any of the top 3 Centers next season.  They all appear to be franchise level #1 Centers.

 

By 2024, we could compete again.

 

I really hate it when BT says "moves have to make sense" which literally translates into "moves have to help us win today, tomorrow, and forever".  Get outta here with that nonsense.  That's fantasy land.  Give up some today for tomorrow is realz.

[travel_dude]

3 hours ago, jjgallow said:

 

Just so that we are clear, Tampa is by definition the model of NHL teams whether you agree or disagree with how they rebuild.     They stole a cup from us, when we were both rebuilding.

 

Then the went and rebuilt while we were rebuilding,  did it properly and won two more.

 

There is no question as to whether they are the model right now.  I also fail to see how you poke holes in their drafting,  nearly all their top players winning the cup right now are Tampa drafted.

 

I agree with you that we would almost certainly fail in a rebuild,  if we kept BT.

But if we keep BT we're going to fail no matter what we do, so might as well embrace the inevitable rebuild

 

Bolded is ancient history.

 

They actually only have won one other cup since 2004 unless you are using the foregone conclusion they win this season.

 

The only part of their drafting that I was poking a hole in was that they have not drafted anyone of note since Point and Cirelli, both in the 3rd round.

Smart drafting to get those guys.

But they decided long ago that they would have a core of about 10 guys and trade/sign to build a winner.

That included passing up 1sts and 2nds to get other players.

And being on the money with 3rd rounders, otherwise they are not a cup winner last year.

Only took them from 2007 to get it right.  

 

Tampa lucked out with Kucherov, Cirelli, Point, Kilorn, Palat.

Hit with Vasilevskiy, Stamkos and Hedman.

Only took 12 years for Stamkos to play 1 game to winning a cup.

 

Model for building a NHL winner?

Not exactly.

An example of hitting on later picks that actually become your best players?  Trading picks for players to contribute? 

Trading a 1st rounder for a better 1st rounder? 

Absolutely.    

Only $5m over the cap for 21/22 with 19 players signed.

Thanks to perfect timing for LTIR recoveries for this year's cup.

[jjgallow]

19 minutes ago, travel_dude said:

 

Bolded is ancient history.

 

They actually only have won one other cup since 2004 unless you are using the foregone conclusion they win this season.

 

The only part of their drafting that I was poking a hole in was that they have not drafted anyone of note since Point and Cirelli, both in the 3rd round.

Smart drafting to get those guys.

But they decided long ago that they would have a core of about 10 guys and trade/sign to build a winner.

That included passing up 1sts and 2nds to get other players.

And being on the money with 3rd rounders, otherwise they are not a cup winner last year.

Only took them from 2007 to get it right.  

 

Tampa lucked out with Kucherov, Cirelli, Point, Kilorn, Palat.

Hit with Vasilevskiy, Stamkos and Hedman.

Only took 12 years for Stamkos to play 1 game to winning a cup.

 

Model for building a NHL winner?

Not exactly.

An example of hitting on later picks that actually become your best players?  Trading picks for players to contribute? 

Trading a 1st rounder for a better 1st rounder? 

Absolutely.    

Only $5m over the cap for 21/22 with 19 players signed.

Thanks to perfect timing for LTIR recoveries for this year's cup.

 

Man I hate tampa too but three cups is three cups, we've been rebuilding that whole time.     You might think it's ancient history but what it is, is us not learning from it at all, and them beating us at it Again because we don't learn, an we're still not learning.   It's ancient history but nothing has changed with how we screw it up.

 

And yeah, 3 cups, I think basically everyone is at that foregone conclusion.   I'll be super happy if I'm wrong but let's not kid ourselves.

 

I'm sorry but they didn't just luck out, they drafted and developed well.  We can run odds on it but the shear amount of in-house talent is overwhelmingly clear and cannot be explained solely on luck (of course luck was involved).

 

We can have that convo about the differences between what they did and Edmonton did.  But I'll say now they can't be painted with the same brush.   They've done it right.      And, yeah, I agree with you, we do not have the personel to do it right, yet.

 

 

[travel_dude]

And to bring this back a bit, a rebuild could work if done right, we get lucky and add the right pieces at the right times.

 

[The_People1]

8 minutes ago, travel_dude said:

And to bring this back a bit, a rebuild could work if done right, we get lucky and add the right pieces at the right times.

 

 

Timing is pretty good with Shane Wright next year followed by Conor Bedard.  They highlight what is supposed to be back to back deep drafts.  So trade Gaudreau and Monahan for 2022 and 2023 first and second round picks or more.  Stack those picks.

[travel_dude]

2 minutes ago, jjgallow said:

I'm sorry but they didn't just luck out, they drafted and developed well.  We can run odds on it but the shear amount of in-house talent is overwhelmingly clear and cannot be explained solely on luck (of course luck was involved).

 

We can have that convo about the differences between what they did and Edmonton did.  But I'll say now they can't be painted with the same brush.   They've done it right.      And, yeah, I agree with you, we do not have the personel to do it right, yet.

 

Of course they lucked out.

Kucherov at 58 after choosing Namestnikov at 27?

Vasilevskiy at 19 after picking Koekkoek at 10?

A disgruntled Drouin swapped to a Francophone team for Sergachev?

Point at 79 and Cirelli at 72?

 

It's awesome that they managed to come oiut of those drafts with star players after missing on their 1st picks.

[The_People1]

41 minutes ago, travel_dude said:

 

Only took them from 2007 to get it right.  

 

Tampa lucked out with Kucherov, Cirelli, Point, Kilorn, Palat.

Hit with Vasilevskiy, Stamkos and Hedman.

Only took 12 years for Stamkos to play 1 game to winning a cup.

 

Model for building a NHL winner?

Not exactly.

An example of hitting on later picks that actually become your best players?  Trading picks for players to contribute? 

Trading a 1st rounder for a better 1st rounder? 

Absolutely.    

Only $5m over the cap for 21/22 with 19 players signed.

Thanks to perfect timing for LTIR recoveries for this year's cup.

 

Tanking for a #1 pick alone simply cannot get it done.  Can't rely SOLELY on that but also must acknowledge it helps.  Beyond picking top 2, we also need to nail the depth picks (something the Oilers fail to do).

 

Foregoing the top 2 picks... Can work but it's so hard.  StLouis Blues sorta did it.  Top 2 pick is almost an essential part of every Cup winning team in the last 15 to 20 years.

[travel_dude]

3 minutes ago, The_People1 said:

 

Timing is pretty good with Shane Wright next year followed by Conor Bedard.  They highlight what is supposed to be back to back deep drafts.  So trade Gaudreau and Monahan for 2022 and 2023 first and second round picks or more.  Stack those picks.

 

If only it was so easy to get that elusive 1st overall.

Even with multiple 1sts and 2nds in those year, you ain't trading for 1st overall.

Have to win two lotteries in a row.

 

 

[The_People1]

3 minutes ago, travel_dude said:

 

Of course they lucked out.

Kucherov at 58 after choosing Namestnikov at 27?

Vasilevskiy at 19 after picking Koekkoek at 10?

A disgruntled Drouin swapped to a Francophone team for Sergachev?

Point at 79 and Cirelli at 72?

 

It's awesome that they managed to come oiut of those drafts with star players after missing on their 1st picks.

 

Yes we also need to nail those depth picks.   It JUST nailing those depth picks without picking top 2 doesn't get it done.

[travel_dude]

1 minute ago, The_People1 said:

 

Yes we also need to nail those depth picks.   It JUST nailing those depth picks without picking top 2 doesn't get it done.

 

If there was a path that would get us top 2 in the next two years plus not sacrifice depth picks, sign me on.

Unfortunately, to do so we probably have to give up players we would need for a cup run.

 

[The_People1]

3 minutes ago, travel_dude said:

 

If only it was so easy to get that elusive 1st overall.

Even with multiple 1sts and 2nds in those year, you ain't trading for 1st overall.

Have to win two lotteries in a row.

 

 

 

Yes much much harder now than ever before.  Plus, not allowed to win two lotteries in back to back years.  So yes, it's hard.  Need to literally be dead last and hope you keep your spot.

[The_People1]

Just now, travel_dude said:

 

If there was a path that would get us top 2 in the next two years plus not sacrifice depth picks, sign me on.

Unfortunately, to do so we probably have to give up players we would need for a cup run.

 

 

Lol we are absolutely NOT going to tank bro. I'm saying we SHOULD.  Give up going for the Cup next year.  

[travel_dude]

2 minutes ago, The_People1 said:

 

Yes much much harder now than ever before.  Plus, not allowed to win two lotteries in back to back years.  So yes, it's hard.  Need to literally be dead last and hope you keep your spot.

I thought it was you could only win two in a 5 year span, starting next year.

[travel_dude]

1 minute ago, The_People1 said:

 

Lol we are absolutely NOT going to tank bro. I'm saying we SHOULD.  Give up going for the Cup next year.  

 

Yes, I was being funny.

I know we won't even rebuild, so tank is not even a remote option for BT.

[jjgallow]

 

3 hours ago, travel_dude said:

 

Of course they lucked out.

Kucherov at 58 after choosing Namestnikov at 27?

Vasilevskiy at 19 after picking Koekkoek at 10?

A disgruntled Drouin swapped to a Francophone team for Sergachev?

Point at 79 and Cirelli at 72?

 

It's awesome that they managed to come oiut of those drafts with star players after missing on their 1st picks.

 

 

Lol....the tanking debate never gets old lol

 

Seriously, Tampa tanked and Tampa rebuilt from the ground up.  They did a lot of development and they made far smarter decisions.

 

They didn't just miss all their first round picks, they have multiple franchise players from those first round picks.   

 

Vasilevskiy, Stamkos, Hedman literally define them it's absurd to mock their first round returns.  Not even including the bank they made on DeAngelo, Druin, and many of the other active NHLers they got in the first round.

 

Yes, you need to do well past the first round.   And this gets into where they succeeded and Edmonton didn't.

 

If you take all of Tampa's first round picks, but they fail past the first round, you don't have a cup winner.  You have an Edmonton.

If you take all of Tampa's later picks, but exclude the first round, you have yourself an average team.  Not a cup winner.

 

There's no point in fingering where they got lucky, you win cups this frequently you have to be firing on all cylindars and they were doing just that.

 

 

Would Tampa have won these cups without tanking?  Not a chance.

Would Tampa have won these cups without great trades?  Not a chance.

Would Tampa have won these cups without great drafting and development in later rounds?  Not a chance.

 

 

A rebuild isn't the solution, it's just the starting point.  Fail to take that step and just accept being average forever IF you manage to get everything else perfect.

 

ps....I won't go through the whole list, but again those picks aren't just luck.

          Remember when we picked Wotherspoon, for absolutely no good reason at all?

          Remember who was picked next?  Kucherov.   Who was literally already succeeding in the KHL. 

          That's not luck.  That's us and a bunch of others being dummies.

          
          Then you've got development.  When's the last time we drafted a player like Kucherov?    Backlund is when.
          So we take him and promote him and throw him on the fourth line and let him rot.
          Tampa made sure Kucherov never played a single minute away from the first line.
           As soon as it became clear that the KHL didn't know how to develop him, he was in the QMJHL, first line.
           Then, the AHL, first line.
            He was developed to succeed.   We have no idea what this is.

[jjgallow]

3 hours ago, The_People1 said:

 

Yes much much harder now than ever before.  Plus, not allowed to win two lotteries in back to back years.  So yes, it's hard.  Need to literally be dead last and hope you keep your spot.

 

[jjgallow]

On 7/5/2021 at 3:48 PM, Thebrewcrew said:

I don't really like the fit of a Gaudreau trade to any of the Northeast teams.

 

Boston- Nothing they'd be willing to move is all that interesting.

New Jersey- Same, it's really only Dawson Mercer that I'd want

NYR- Rangers won't be interested, they have Kakko, Lafreniere, Buchnevich, Kreider as LHS wingers, not to mention Panarin plays LW.

NYI- They are really capped out so I struggle to see them as a viable partner.

PHI- Probably the best fit for the Flames and for Johnny. Konecny and Sanheim interest me. I also like Morgan Frost. Philly has the pieces to do it. 

 

A sleeper could be Carolina. They have some really good prospects if that's the type of return the Flames want. 

 

I'd do picks, I can wait

[travel_dude]

12 hours ago, jjgallow said:

Would Tampa have won these cups without tanking?  Not a chance.

Would Tampa have won these cups without great trades?  Not a chance.

Would Tampa have won these cups without great drafting and development in later rounds?  Not a chance.

 

 

A rebuild isn't the solution, it's just the starting point.  Fail to take that step and just accept being average forever IF you manage to get everything else perfect.

 

 

We agree on most of above, but I think there is as many examples of teams that didn't tank and won.

Rebuild - a few that didn't.

Tank - more than a few that didn't.

 

Drafting and development don't always fit together.

A star player can get there without so called development.

If Point and Kucherov are examples of great development, then so is Gaudreau and Tkachuk.

I can get behind playing a player in a position to succeed, but it's less development once they get to the NHL.

 

Anyway, I'm bored so moving on.

[bosn111]

The_People1 I think you misread my statement. I never said winning now and later, I said middling as in flirting with first round playoffs the Flames have done for the past decade, while building for the future. This I do believe is possible by making the right moves.

 

JJ and others want a full collapse in hopes of grabbing Wright and Bedard. While that could be nice, we can see how well that has worked for Edmonton and to a lesser extent Toronto. Also look at floundering Buffalo. Yes it worked out for a few years for Pittsburg when they got Crosby and Malkin, but there are more teams that have stuck in the basement for far too long even with many high draft picks.

 

My idea is that the Flames could trade the likes of Gaudreau, Monahan, Tkachuk and Giordano for a combination of good to very good players, prospects and draft picks. The cap savings would allow the signing of good middle aged players which would allow the Flames to continue middle of the pack while allowing prospects to develop to become better. Also waiting on a higher cap to grab big names later.

 

While my suggested lineup may not scream cup contender, I see it as at least pushing consistently for the playoffs.

 

Mangiapane  / Lindholm / Necas (CAR)

Crouse (ARI) / Backlund / Kyrou (STL)

Dube / Zacha (NJD) / Phillips

Lucic / Ruzicka / Pospisil

 

Hanifin / Parayko (STL)

Valimaki / Tanev

Nemeth (UFA) / Andersson 

Mackey / Stone

 

Markstrom

??

 

Prospects to try and acquire in the trades:

 

NJD 

Mercer RW

Foote LW

 

CBJ

Dunne C

 

There are other prospects I know but I have typed enough already.

 

As I said, it may not be a cup contender, but it would likely push for the playoffs every year. Graduating a few prospects, and when Contracts end for the likes of Lucic, Backlund and Tanev, other prospects should be ready to step in. Players should have enough value to be traded to make room as well.

 

Basically it would be based on Tkachuk + to STL for Parayko and Kyrou. Gaudreau to NJD for Zacha + 1 of Mercer or Foote (both preferred even if Flames need to add). Giordano + to Arizona for Crouse. Monahan to Carolina for Necas.

 

There may be tweaks needed, but those would be the basics of moves.

 

All of this adds size overall, gets younger, creates cap space, cap control and shows prospects that there is capacity to make the team.

 

But these are just my thoughts on how Flames don’t need to full on tank to have success.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[jjgallow]

23 minutes ago, bosn111 said:

JJ and others want a full collapse in hopes of grabbing Wright and Bedard. While that could be nice, we can see how well that has worked for Edmonton and to a lesser extent Toronto. Also look at floundering Buffalo. Yes it worked out for a few years for Pittsburg when they got Crosby and Malkin, but there are more teams that have stuck in the basement for far too long even with many high draft picks.

 

It's not so much that I Want a full collapse as much as I think we've been mismanaged for so long it'll be hard to avoid at this point, and that it will speed our recovery IF managed well.   I recognise that's not a given and I have always pushed for better management harder than I push for a rebuild.

 

For the record, I don't think teams should aim for a collapse.   Rather, they should invest far more than the Flames do in their scouting and development, and they should NEVER ever give up draft picks (exceptions have to be exceptional).    Instead they should aim to acquire more draft picks each year, and be prepared to let one or two veterans go each year in return for more draft picks.

 

Do that for 10 years and you will have a very young, very affordable, highly skilled and highly competitive team with a constant pipeline of talent, some of which you can sneak into the lineup when you go deep into the playoffs.    

 

If you don't like waiting the 10 years then I would suggest considering the "full collapse", although:

 

Quote

 

My idea is that the Flames could trade the likes of Gaudreau, Monahan, Tkachuk and Giordano for a combination of good to very good players, prospects and draft picks. The cap savings would allow the signing of good middle aged players which would allow the Flames to continue middle of the pack while allowing prospects to develop to become better. Also waiting on a higher cap to grab big names later.

 

 

A lot of the differences in what we discuss is semantics.   What you've described above is almost exactly what I would do.  I might go heavier on the picks than you but not by that much, there simply isn't a lot of play room, picks are gong to be that available commodity because value is always placed in the present.  The present is what keeps GMs employed.

 

The reality is that if we trade Gaudreau, Monahan, Tkachuk and Giordano, we are going to do a full collapse because we are simply not going to get the same performance level back.   Otherwise why would a team trade for them.    I don't see a salvage at this point, in terms of immediate improvement of results.   not without giving up future picks combined with blowing our cap, and none of us want to be in that business.

[robrob74]

On 7/6/2021 at 10:51 AM, travel_dude said:

The bolded is true if you are in a rebuild.

Unlikely given our penchant for cycling in and out of the playoffs.

As much as it appears that we are doing nothing to change that course, we actually do every year.

Every trade of more than a marginal player is meant to do something.

Every signing is for a purpose of improving.

 

The lack of planning is more of what we are trying to build.

Brouwer signed to add playoff experience and toughness.

Neal to add consistent goal scoring.

Markstrom to add a starter.

Tanev to add toughness and defensive ability.

On the surface, those moves sound like a direction we were going in.

Scouting either didn't identify the weaknesses or completely misjudged the players.

 

I've really got no issue with Markstrom or Tanev.

They probably prevent us from being a basement team and could actually result in cycling back into the playoffs.

A re-tool might get us closer to contender if combined with the right players and game plan.

A rebuild is almost guaranteed to fail, since the likelihood of keeping the right pieces and selecting the next franchise players are remote.

If Tampa is the team to be the model of NHL teams, they certainly spent a lot of time wallowing.

Choice picks of Point and Kucherov in 2013 and 14, but little since.

 

I think you’re right, but it means we keep picking at 12 or 16. And that window might be closing quick if we can’t get anything for Gaudreau and he walks. Tkachuk might just take the qualifying offer and then walk too. Monahan has a few years left. 
 

Unless BT can do something quick, I see the rebuild in 2 years not this next season. Why not get a head start on it?

 

It’s kind of interesting to see what happens. But I feel a mortgage the future situation coming on soon. I don’t think it is Eichel, but picks to add to what we have and not move any core.

[robrob74]

On 7/6/2021 at 2:59 PM, travel_dude said:

 

Bolded is ancient history.

 

They actually only have won one other cup since 2004 unless you are using the foregone conclusion they win this season.

 

The only part of their drafting that I was poking a hole in was that they have not drafted anyone of note since Point and Cirelli, both in the 3rd round.

Smart drafting to get those guys.

But they decided long ago that they would have a core of about 10 guys and trade/sign to build a winner.

That included passing up 1sts and 2nds to get other players.

And being on the money with 3rd rounders, otherwise they are not a cup winner last year.

Only took them from 2007 to get it right.  

 

Tampa lucked out with Kucherov, Cirelli, Point, Kilorn, Palat.

Hit with Vasilevskiy, Stamkos and Hedman.

Only took 12 years for Stamkos to play 1 game to winning a cup.

 

Model for building a NHL winner?

Not exactly.

An example of hitting on later picks that actually become your best players?  Trading picks for players to contribute? 

Trading a 1st rounder for a better 1st rounder? 

Absolutely.    

Only $5m over the cap for 21/22 with 19 players signed.

Thanks to perfect timing for LTIR recoveries for this year's cup.

 

they did what a lot of the recent cup winners did. They had a high pick in Stamkos (while isn’t a reason for their wins, but is still a good player). Drafted a Norris level elite D with, was it a 2nd overall pick. Drafted a bonafide #1 goalie at the right time, considering they had a deep team that was already drafted. And like you said yourself, they started trading away 1sts. But I think they waited for the right time to go for it as their core was ready and able to compete. They had most of the pieces to win and had to make a few overpriced deals to get over the top, which we would do in a heartbeat. 
 

but we are a bunch of pieces away from doing something like that. We don’t have one elite player on our team, an ok to sometimes good or very good starter, and a two 1st line LW and a first line RW who plays as our #1C but would be a #2C on a champ team… 

 

we are not Tampa & haven’t been close since 2004…

[robrob74]

Tampa,

Tampa,

St Louis, 

Washington

Pittsburgh 

Pittsburgh
Chicago

LA
Chicago
LA

Boston

Chicago

 

Boston might be the only team that didn’t tank in the last 12 years for a cup.
 

each of the other teams all have a top3 pick on them. It’s not the recipe, but those picks are a big part of those teams.  

 
maybe St. Louis wasn’t a huge tanker, but they were bad for awhile before they got consistent, kind of like Philly of the West… Or would that be Minnesota?

 

[travel_dude]

3 minutes ago, robrob74 said:

 

they did what a lot of the recent cup winners did. They had a high pick in Stamkos (while isn’t a reason for their wins, but is still a good player). Drafted a Norris level elite D with, was it a 2nd overall pick. Drafted a bonafide #1 goalie at the right time, considering they had a deep team that was already drafted. And like you said yourself, they started trading away 1sts. But I think they waited for the right time to go for it as their core was ready and able to compete. They had most of the pieces to win and had to make a few overpriced deals to get over the top, which we would do in a heartbeat. 
 

but we are a bunch of pieces away from doing something like that. We don’t have one elite player on our team, an ok to sometimes good or very good starter, and a two 1st line LW and a first line RW who plays as our #1C but would be a #2C on a champ team… 

 

we are not Tampa & haven’t been close since 2004…

 

Well the biggest difference betwee us and TBL is Vasilevskiy, Kucherov and Hedman.

Point is a star in the payoffs and will be soon their best player perhaps.

It's hard to really compare otherwise because we haven't gone into later rounds in like forever.

Can't really tell how impactful a player could be in one round.

 

That's the part that is frustrating.

We miss the playoffs in a year where we could have beat Toronto.

Can't say what WPG would be like, but we could bet them.

VGK, perhaps not.

 

We have not had a top D since JBow.

Sorry Gio, but your playoff work doesn't stack up to the greats.

Maybe I am missing the boat, but I don't think we will do anything until we replace the top D.

Perhaps Markstrom is not enough too make a difference, but he's been good for year behind a lesser D.

 

So, my wish list is:

A great 1b goalie in case Markstrom gets injured.

A top 2D; at this point I'm not sure who the partner would be now or in the future.

A big bruising D.

A top 6 RW.

A top 6 C.

4th line.