2019-20 ROSTER PLANNING

[sak22]

2 hours ago, conundrumed said:

It was briefly enjoyable. lol

Should Brodie get the same range that we spent on Hamonic?

Brodie/4th for a 1st and 2 2nds?

 

I don't think its impossible, depends on the market.  IIRC Toronto was going for Hamonic as well.  I don't know if the market for picks will be great for the '19 draft, but once the Myers, Stralman, Gardiner fall off the UFA board his trade value probably increases for '20 draft picks.

[MAC331]

This is more for my thoughts and suggestions to see them lined up. One added thought would be keeping Stone if no trade materializes

FORWARDS
Gaudreau, Lindholm, Tkachuk

Monahan, Schenn, Kapanen  (alternative Dzingel at C)

Bennett, Backlund, Connolly  (alternative if Brodie traded to MON for Armia RW)

Dube, Ryan, Czarnik
Rychel           Lazar

DEFENSE
Giordano, Andersson

Hanifin, Hamonic

Valimaki, Stone

Kylington

GOALIES
Mrazek, Rittich. 

[JTech780]

If we plan for our main RFA's to take the higher end of what they will get on the next contract, we end being over the cap, assuming that the cap is $83,000,000 next year. This is before we make trades and with Gillies as the backup next, which can't happen.

 

Tkachuk 7x$8m: He might end up getting more than that, I think this is around where he will end up.

Bennett: 3x$3m: I would think he would get less than that, but he was really the only forward to show up in the playoffs and he has shown in the past to be one of our few big game players.

Andrew Mangiapane: 2x$1.25m: I think he will get less, just based on lack of a track record, but this is basically the same contract Czarnik just got.

David Rittich 3x$3.5m: I think this is the upper limit if what he will get, he had a good year, but he still needs to take another step.

 

We will need to trade players just to get under the cap let alone, to add anyone else. I don't think we can be players in the UFA market just because of cap space.

 

I think we will need to buyout Stone, that will save us around $2m in cap space next year, but then we would need to sign a defenseman to replace him as the 7th D cutting those savings in half.

 

If we then trade Brodie we would need another RD in return or would need to sign a RD.

 

If we traded Frolik for Zucker we would probably need to add Czarnik or Jankowski to make the cap work, as Zucker makes $1m more than Frolik.

[MAC331]

43 minutes ago, JTech780 said:

If we plan for our main RFA's to take the higher end of what they will get on the next contract, we end being over the cap, assuming that the cap is $83,000,000 next year. This is before we make trades and with Gillies as the backup next, which can't happen.

 

Tkachuk 7x$8m: He might end up getting more than that, I think this is around where he will end up.

Bennett: 3x$3m: I would think he would get less than that, but he was really the only forward to show up in the playoffs and he has shown in the past to be one of our few big game players.

Andrew Mangiapane: 2x$1.25m: I think he will get less, just based on lack of a track record, but this is basically the same contract Czarnik just got.

David Rittich 3x$3.5m: I think this is the upper limit if what he will get, he had a good year, but he still needs to take another step.

 

We will need to trade players just to get under the cap let alone, to add anyone else. I don't think we can be players in the UFA market just because of cap space.

 

I think we will need to buyout Stone, that will save us around $2m in cap space next year, but then we would need to sign a defenseman to replace him as the 7th D cutting those savings in half.

 

If we then trade Brodie we would need another RD in return or would need to sign a RD.

 

If we traded Frolik for Zucker we would probably need to add Czarnik or Jankowski to make the cap work, as Zucker makes $1m more than Frolik.

Hard to say right now who will remain or what the remaining will be signed at for now. We are all assuming things. Right now I am just trying to get us a team that will fit Peters style of play. I don't think it makes much sense to trade Frolik at 4.5M and bring back a longer commitment at 5.75M, lots of moving parts needs to happen. Personally I wouldn't even want Zucker.

[bosn111]

Ok, we have a lot of comments all over the place. Trying to bring everything together is a good idea.

 

So basically this is what the Flames have for next year (not in any line up order) based on positions listed / played this season

 

LW                                       C                                 RW

Gaudreau                      Monahan                          Lindholm

Czarnik                          Backlund                          Frolik

                                     Jankowski                         Neal

                                      Ryan           

Bennett (RFA)                Dube                                 Lazar (RFA)

Tkachuk (RFA)                

Mangiapane (RFA)         Quine (RFA)                      Hathaway UFA

 

Giordano.      Brodie

Hanifin           Hamonic

Valimaki         Andersson

Kylington       Stone

Fantenberg (UFA)

Prout (UFA)

 

Rittich RFA

Smith UFA

 

This shows that we have far too many D. I believe that the only D that does not need to clear waivers on the list next season is Valimaki. Even if Fanta and Prout are not re-signed (I would prefer they re-sign Fanta for sure), there is still another D who will need to be moved. They won't risk losing one for free to waivers unless they are unable to trade the likes of Stone or Brodie.

 

Without moving anyone, Centre is fairly set right now. Negotiations with FA's will adjust other needs just to fill out the roster. Quine may get moved instead of re-signed for low picks or some other prospect as he would be waiver eligible next season and is down on the list. While I would prefer to hang on to Hathaway at a reasonable price, for a 4th liner, he may price himself out in UFA. I would prefer to keep 4th liners at under a mil.

 

Lazar, Rychel and Valiev may be victims of the Waiver rules as well.

 

It will be interesting to see what happens, but the team fit does need to be adjusted.

[JTech780]

I think part of the reason Calgary has been rumoured to be heavily into the European market this year is two fold:

 

1. Hakan Loob, hiring him as a pro scout was a home run and one of those little things that will go under the radar. Loob is a hugely respected person in hockey circles and especially in European markets. He will help us tremendously in signing the bigger names.

 

2. We need cheap depth that can contribute as soon as next season. With us being up against the cap, we need more players who can contribute while on ELC's or low cost contracts.

[MAC331]

13 hours ago, JTech780 said:

I think part of the reason Calgary has been rumoured to be heavily into the European market this year is two fold:

 

1. Hakan Loob, hiring him as a pro scout was a home run and one of those little things that will go under the radar. Loob is a hugely respected person in hockey circles and especially in European markets. He will help us tremendously in signing the bigger names.

 

2. We need cheap depth that can contribute as soon as next season. With us being up against the cap, we need more players who can contribute while on ELC's or low cost contracts.

We will always have that need and Loob is starting to pay some dividends from his position there. Any further word on the Nygard LW kid ? He sounded close to being an immediate contributor or definite depth in Stockton.

[MAC331]

23 hours ago, bosn111 said:

Ok, we have a lot of comments all over the place. Trying to bring everything together is a good idea.

 

So basically this is what the Flames have for next year (not in any line up order) based on positions listed / played this season

 

LW                                       C                                 RW

Gaudreau                      Monahan                          Lindholm

Czarnik                          Backlund                          Frolik

                                     Jankowski                         Neal

                                      Ryan           

Bennett (RFA)                Dube                                 Lazar (RFA)

Tkachuk (RFA)                

Mangiapane (RFA)         Quine (RFA)                      Hathaway UFA

 

Giordano.      Brodie

Hanifin           Hamonic

Valimaki         Andersson

Kylington       Stone

Fantenberg (UFA)

Prout (UFA)

 

Rittich RFA

Smith UFA

 

This shows that we have far too many D. I believe that the only D that does not need to clear waivers on the list next season is Valimaki. Even if Fanta and Prout are not re-signed (I would prefer they re-sign Fanta for sure), there is still another D who will need to be moved. They won't risk losing one for free to waivers unless they are unable to trade the likes of Stone or Brodie.

 

Without moving anyone, Centre is fairly set right now. Negotiations with FA's will adjust other needs just to fill out the roster. Quine may get moved instead of re-signed for low picks or some other prospect as he would be waiver eligible next season and is down on the list. While I would prefer to hang on to Hathaway at a reasonable price, for a 4th liner, he may price himself out in UFA. I would prefer to keep 4th liners at under a mil.

 

Lazar, Rychel and Valiev may be victims of the Waiver rules as well.

 

It will be interesting to see what happens, but the team fit does need to be adjusted.

I know you did your structuring based on signed contracts so here are my thoughts based on who I think will still be here.

Gaudreau 6.8M, Lindholm 4.8M, Tkachuk 7.5M

Monahan 6.25M, ??/????, ????????

Bennett 2.5M, Backlund 5.5M, ????????

Mangiapane 1.2M, Ryan 3.5M, Czarnik 1.2M

Dube 750K

DEFENSE

Giordano 6.75M, Andersson 950K

Hanafin 4.5M, Hamonic 3.85M

Valimaki 950K, ?????????
Kylington 650K

GOALIES

Rittich 2.0M

This has a starting point of adding to the roster at approximately 60M leaving 23M roughly to fill the holes. We need the following theoretically .

GOALIE 4.5M, 2nd line C, 5M, 2nd line RW 5M, 3rd line RW 2.5M, RSD 3rd pairing 1M and say another 1M for an extra forward = $18M
(edited : forgot 3rd line RW)

Rough numbers however these do have BT in good shape vs the cap if he can move out the excluded players.

[JTech780]

1 hour ago, MAC331 said:

I know you did your structuring based on signed contracts so here are my thoughts based on who I think will still be here.

Gaudreau 6.8M, Lindholm 4.8M, Tkachuk 7.5M

Monahan 6.25M, ??/????, ????????

Bennett 2.5M, Backlund 5.5M, ????????

Mangiapane 1.2M, Ryan 3.5M, Czarnik 1.2M

Dube 750K

DEFENSE

Giordano 6.75M, Andersson 950K

Hanafin 4.5M, Hamonic 3.85M

Valimaki 950K, ?????????
Kylington 650K

GOALIES

Rittich 2.0M

This has a starting point of adding to the roster at approximately 60M leaving 23M roughly to fill the holes. We need the following theoretically .

GOALIE 4.5M, 2nd line C, 5M, 2nd line RW 5M, RSD 3rd pairing 1M and say another 1M for an extra forward = $16.5M

Rough numbers however these do have BT in good shape vs the cap if he can move out the excluded players.

 

That's an extremely optimistic look at, it assumes that we can trade Brodie, Stone, Neal and Frolik without taking any salary back, which in all fairness is a next to impossible task.

[MAC331]

31 minutes ago, JTech780 said:

 

That's an extremely optimistic look at, it assumes that we can trade Brodie, Stone, Neal and Frolik without taking any salary back, which in all fairness is a next to impossible task.

Why ? would we be taking back salaries unaccounted for in the numbers I allotted for as needs ? As an example if we did a deal with CBJ Winnberg for Neal I don't think we are looking at carrying any money. Brodie and Frolik we can trade straight up..

[conundrumed]

On 5/9/2019 at 2:57 PM, JTech780 said:

If we plan for our main RFA's to take the higher end of what they will get on the next contract, we end being over the cap, assuming that the cap is $83,000,000 next year. This is before we make trades and with Gillies as the backup next, which can't happen.

 

Tkachuk 7x$8m: He might end up getting more than that, I think this is around where he will end up.

Bennett: 3x$3m: I would think he would get less than that, but he was really the only forward to show up in the playoffs and he has shown in the past to be one of our few big game players.

Andrew Mangiapane: 2x$1.25m: I think he will get less, just based on lack of a track record, but this is basically the same contract Czarnik just got.

David Rittich 3x$3.5m: I think this is the upper limit if what he will get, he had a good year, but he still needs to take another step.

 

We will need to trade players just to get under the cap let alone, to add anyone else. I don't think we can be players in the UFA market just because of cap space.

 

I think we will need to buyout Stone, that will save us around $2m in cap space next year, but then we would need to sign a defenseman to replace him as the 7th D cutting those savings in half.

 

If we then trade Brodie we would need another RD in return or would need to sign a RD.

 

If we traded Frolik for Zucker we would probably need to add Czarnik or Jankowski to make the cap work, as Zucker makes $1m more than Frolik.

Excellent point.

We have about $11-12 in space.

Tkachuk

Bennett

Mangia

Hathaway

Fanta

Rittich

We're outta space.

Buyout of Stone likely.

Our trades may have to be at the draft table for picks to create space and move fwd from there.

[MAC331]

22 minutes ago, conundrumed said:

Excellent point.

We have about $11-12 in space.

Tkachuk

Bennett

Mangia

Hathaway

Fanta

Rittich

We're outta space.

Buyout of Stone likely.

Our trades may have to be at the draft table for picks to create space and move fwd from there.

Like what has been said lots will need to take place so not sure why people persist on pointing out what the situation is currently, things will not stay as is.

[conundrumed]

15 minutes ago, MAC331 said:

Like what has been said lots will need to take place so not sure why people persist on pointing out what the situation is currently, things will not stay as is.

I was agreeing with JTECH.

It appears to me a lot of the prescribed trades aren't taking cap issues into account. We have them.

May need Brodie gone for picks alone just to get a couple mil off of his contract to meet the Cap.

[Thebrewcrew]

RFA signings

• Tkachuk- this is gonna be a tricky and drawn out negotiation as BT tends to do. My guess is 8millx6
• Rittich- one year away from UFA, I look at the Grubauer deal of last season as a decent comparable at 3.33x3. He signed a prove it deal last year did just that, time to look after your future #1
• Bennett- it shouldn't be too tough a negotiation based on his counting numbers. My guess is another 2 year bridge in the 2.2-2.7 range.
• Mangiapane- should be the easiest RFA negotiation for Treliving, I like at the Garland deal in ARI as pretty similar 775k x2. Neither player has much NHL track record

 

Buyouts- I fully expect to see a buyout of Stone this summer

 

Flames UFA's

• Smith- maybe but how much will he be willing to make to stay here? Could be best for both parties to go separate ways.
• Fantenberg- coming off a league minimum contract, I'm sure he'd like at least 1 mill, I'd be ok with keeping him at a number you an bury in the minors without any effect on the cap
• Hathaway- I really doubt BT can keep him. Hathaway had a career year and has a chance to get a decent deal, he's never really made bug money either. Good for him, but if that number is north of 1.5 I think it's best to part ways

 

Trades

• Jon Gillies to Chicago for C/RW John Hayden

      - BT needs to move a goalie and it will most likely be Gillies, both guys have identical cap hits at 750k and CHI has been shopping Hayden for a while, he plays a similar game to Hathaway and could be his replacement.

• Brodie and Jankowski to Montreal for Danault

- I admit it is unlikely MTL moves Quebec native Danault, but he is the kind of player the Flames need in a Brodie trade. Habs need a partner to play with Weber, if Brodie can play well with Gio then he could do well with Weber. Jankowski could fill the hole vacated by Danault. Another target I would have for 3rd line C would be Eakin from Vegas or Tierney from OTT

• Frolik, Kylington and 26th overall pick in 2019 draft to Minnesota for Zucker and 42nd pick in the 2019 draft

- BT typically always circles back on deals that have fallen through, Hamonic, he tried to get Bishop twice etc.. I doubt he gives up on trying to get Zucker, adds speed which is an organizational weakness. It will cost more though as teams that weren't buyers  at the TDL will be bidding on Zucker. 42nd pick still gives the Flames a quality prospect to add to the system

 

Free agency

• Cam Talbot- could really be any backup but keep it under 3 if possible and 2 year term. What I like about Talbot is he can handle a heavy workload because at this point whether Rittich can play 50 games is unknown.
• Hendricks or Haley- for those that think the Flames are too soft

 

Lines

 

Gaudreau-Monahan-Lindholm

Tkachuk-Backlund-Zucker

Bennett-Danault-Neal

Mangiapane-Ryan-Czarnik

 

Giordano-Andersson

Hanifin-Hamonic

Valimaki-Fantenberg/veteran UFA signing

Rittich 

Talbot

 

Extras

Hendricks

Veteran UFA D let's say Bitteto

[Thebrewcrew]

Given the Flames reported interest in a number of Euro UFA’s I wonder if that means Foo and Lazar aren’t given QO’s, can’t really see much of a future here for either. 

[JTech780]

11 hours ago, Thebrewcrew said:

Given the Flames reported interest in a number of Euro UFA’s I wonder if that means Foo and Lazar aren’t given QO’s, can’t really see much of a future here for either. 

 

I think it's pretty much a given that both will be gone. I think keeping Lazar makes some sense, he could probably replace Hathaway if Hathway prices himself out of Calgary. That being said if I am Lazar I would be looking for opportunities elsewhere.

[Horsman1]

16 minutes ago, JTech780 said:

 

I think it's pretty much a given that both will be gone. I think keeping Lazar makes some sense, he could probably replace Hathaway if Hathway prices himself out of Calgary. That being said if I am Lazar I would be looking for opportunities elsewhere.

I'd really like us to find a way to keep Hathaway in our line-up.. His play and dedication last year grew by leaps and bounds.. He is a prototypical flame bottom six player that is vital to team play and chemistry.. We have a long running history of players like Hathaway  such as jamie Hislop/Dave Hindmarsh/Richard Kromm etc that were felt greatly by their absences.. Hathaway falls into this group

[JTech780]

18 minutes ago, Horsman1 said:

I'd really like us to find a way to keep Hathaway in our line-up.. His play and dedication last year grew by leaps and bounds.. He is a prototypical flame bottom six player that is vital to team play and chemistry.. We have a long running history of players like Hathaway  such as jamie Hislop/Dave Hindmarsh/Richard Kromm etc that were felt greatly by their absences.. Hathaway falls into this group

 

I would like to keep Hathaway as well but anything more than $1m-1.25m or longer than 2 years is an overpayment for his role. So if he will re-sign within those boundaries than I am all for keeping him, if not we have to let him go.

[jjgallow]

 

Brodie is for Sure a first rounder.    

 

I really think we should look at two things:

 

1.  package deals.   What does,  Brodie+Gaudreau get us, for instance (just a random example).   Would be nice to actually get the better pick, or the better player, out of a deal.   That means you need to package.

 

2.   2020 draft.   It's strong.  real strong.  And cheaper.  Further out the pick, the cheaper they are.

[JTech780]

I know this goes against conventional wisdom, but I am really starting to think that signing Tkachuk to a 4 year deal might be the way to go.

 

I could be wrong on this but I think he would be an RFA after 4 years (if I am wrong please correct me). 

 

Our window is in the next 3-4 years after that we probably lose Gaudreau, Monahan and Giordano, which is a big chunk of our core.

 

So if we keep Tkachuk in that same time frame we make it easier to turn the ship in another direction of that's what we are up against.

 

Now this is all based on the idea that we can get Tkachuk's AAV down on 4 years, based on the fact we wouldn't be buying any UFA years.

 

I could be wrong but I think Gaudreau is gone when his contract is up, and right now we don't have the pieces to replace Gaudreau. 

 

To me that means we have to take our swings now and getting Tkachuk at a lower AAV gives us a much better chance at winning in the next 3 years.

[ABC923]

7 minutes ago, jjgallow said:

 

Brodie is for Sure a first rounder.    

 

I really think we should look at two things:

 

1.  package deals.   What does,  Brodie+Gaudreau get us, for instance (just a random example).   Would be nice to actually get the better pick, or the better player, out of a deal.   That means you need to package.

 

2.   2020 draft.   It's strong.  real strong.  And cheaper.  Further out the pick, the cheaper they are.

A package deal could work.  At risk of sounding like a broken record, I don’t think a Brodie+Gaudreau for Marner deal is all that crazy. The combined cap hit is probably fairly close, Toronto gets to fill a defensive position they need, Gaudreau and Marner have similar production values and skills, etc.  Marner is likely the better player, but the difference between them is not that large.  The main incentive for us is to extend our window by going younger. Could work for both teams.

[MAC331]

12 minutes ago, ABC923 said:

A package deal could work.  At risk of sounding like a broken record, I don’t think a Brodie+Gaudreau for Marner deal is all that crazy. The combined cap hit is probably fairly close, Toronto gets to fill a defensive position they need, Gaudreau and Marner have similar production values and skills, etc.  Marner is likely the better player, but the difference between them is not that large.  The main incentive for us is to extend our window by going younger. Could work for both teams.

Maybe sounds good here but TOR isn't going to lose Marner.

[travel_dude]

30 minutes ago, JTech780 said:

I know this goes against conventional wisdom, but I am really starting to think that signing Tkachuk to a 4 year deal might be the way to go.

 

I could be wrong on this but I think he would be an RFA after 4 years (if I am wrong please correct me). 

 

Our window is in the next 3-4 years after that we probably lose Gaudreau, Monahan and Giordano, which is a big chunk of our core.

 

So if we keep Tkachuk in that same time frame we make it easier to turn the ship in another direction of that's what we are up against.

 

Now this is all based on the idea that we can get Tkachuk's AAV down on 4 years, based on the fact we wouldn't be buying any UFA years.

 

I could be wrong but I think Gaudreau is gone when his contract is up, and right now we don't have the pieces to replace Gaudreau. 

 

To me that means we have to take our swings now and getting Tkachuk at a lower AAV gives us a much better chance at winning in the next 3 years.

 

IIRC, 7 years in the NHL puts you as a UFA.  So, that means a 4 year deal expires and he becomes a UFA.  

I don't think it's a given we lose Gaudreau, but his contract will be difficult to absorb if others start getting big money.

Same is true of Monahan.  The big question is what we have at the time besides them.

Gio will be done.

 

I think that BT will go for less years with Tkachuk to keep the AAV down a bit.

The lower AAV is more important right now, since we have to keep Gio and find a true #1G.

That and possibly bring in some talent to round out the top 6.

As well as the buyouts and potential Stone buyout we have to deal with.

 

I hate to say it, but we need to look at improving the roster now.

Some key free agents available this summer, and while I am afraid at what they will get, they are players that can make a difference.

If you were to sign Duchene, then you might be able to trade Backlund for another key piece.

Trade Brodie for a draft pick and/or high level prospect.

Heck, I would trade him for Puljujarvi.

At least in EDM, we know he would help them without hurting us.

Poolparty needs to play on a team where he is supported by a teaching coach.

His speed alone makes his valuable.

 

[jjgallow]

1 hour ago, MAC331 said:

Maybe sounds good here but TOR isn't going to lose Marner.

 

I've given up on doubting 5-player deals with Toronto

[robrob74]

The radio guys seem to think Toronto will lose Marner. Teams will let them know they’ll offer sheet him and give the Leafs a chance to get a choice of the compensation.