kehatch
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Everything posted by kehatch
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You have your young unproven starter already JJ in Ortio. Your not asking for one. Your asking for two. At worst the vet is an insurance policy to give us passable tending if Ortio doesn't work out. But I disagree with your doom and gloom scenario regarding veterans. Halak has been a great compliment to Griess. Dubnyk turned things around in Minnesota. It's early but Reimer is looking like a strong tandem with Jones. There is a long list of success stories. There isn't any reason someone like Varlamov couldn't be a great tandem with Ortio. The Flames aren't going into next season with Ortio and another unproven rookie. Nor should they. Crawford is one of the top goalies in the league. Niemi was never fantastic. Plenty of goalies fail behind good rosters. I do agree that goaltending isn't our only problem. But this season it has been our greatest.
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One, we still need another goalie so talking about next season is fine. Two, no matter what happens for the rest of the season Ortio will still only have around 40 NHL games and be coming of an inconsistent season. No NHL GM is going to pair that with a rookie with a few (or no) games played. Three, there is value in a proven NHL goalie. Play Ortio with Varlamov and you have a good chance of getting good to great goaltending next season. Just as importantly you have the insurance of a proven NHL starter. You don't get that insurance in a rookie who you are not even sure can play consistently at this level. Like it or not the Flames will be talking about Ortio OR Gilles OR Murray OR one of the many rookies you have listed to play with a player like Ramo OR Varlamov OR one of the other proven starters in the league. Be happy that Ortio is cementing himself on top of the list of guys he is competing with.
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The thing about Kuemper is the price tag. Anderson is expensive to acquire and Varlamov comes with a big cap hit. If you can get Kuemper for decent value and sign him to a two year deal with a reasonable cap hit I don't mind him. He has been well coached and outside of last season he has consistently put up pretty impressive numbers. I agree he hasn't shown he can carry a workload, but at least he has 100 or so NHL games so you know he can play at this level. I definitely would be more comfortable with Anderson. I just don't see Anaheim trading him in division (if at all) and he will be expensive to get.
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Ortio is making a case for a contract. Barring a major derailment I think you can pencil him in as one of the two spots come next season. That gives you one goalie that will have around 40-games of NHL experience. The question now becomes who is number 2. I don't think the Flames will (or should) look at a rookie with a limited number of games played. Not to tandem with an inexperienced (and historically inconsistent) goalie like Ortio. I appreciate the appeal of two bright and shiny rookies. But it is impractical and I can’t think of an example of any NHL team doing that. I also don’t want the Flames to invest in a long term and older veteran. I think most will agree that doesn’t fit well with where we are in the rebuild. That limits your search to young goalies with at least some NHL experience or veteran goalies with shorter contracts. I would prefer a young goalie like Anderson or Kuemper. They have enough experience to give you confidence in net but they are young enough to factor into your long term plans. But if you can’t get someone like that I don’t mind looking at someone like Varlamov. He is (probably) cheap to acquire, relatively young, and his contract is short enough he isn’t blocking your prospects. Ramo is your fallback plan in my opinion. You are probably talking about 4.5 million X 2 to sign him to an extension. I prefer Varlamov at 5.9 X 3 to that, especially given the uncertainty around Ramo following his injury.
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I don't understand why some think you can't get a starter in trade or in free agency. Some of the top goalies right now that were acquired via trade or free agency (most cheap): Greiss (Free Agent) Elliot (Free Agent) Bishop (Trade: Conacher and a 4) Neuvirth (Free Agent) Luongo (Trade: Markstrom, Matthias) Schneider (Trade: 9 overall) Rask (Trade: Raycroft) Talbot (2, 3, and 7) Dubnyk (3) Jones (part of the Lucic deal) Sure you still want to develop your goalies if you can. Guys like Crawford, Lundqvist, and Price were drafted and developed by their teams. I also agree you aren't going to get an established top 10 starter so you are taking on a bit of risk that the player will evolve into that. But given the number of current starters that were acquired in a cheap trade or via free agency it is definitely possible for Treliving to find someone to tandem with Ortio or another.
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I don't disagree conundrumed. Finding a goalie that makes sense might not happen. In which case you are stuck with trying to sign Ramo to a reasonable deal. But I think the Flames will find someone. We should no around the draft. I doubt they want to go into July 1st with no goalies under contract.
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.919, .909, .899, .887, benched. That is his last five seasons. He is 38 and won't get more then a couple of games to finish the season (and he will be coming in cold). Even if he has something to show (doubtful imo) he won't be given much of an opportunity to show it. The guy was great for six years and has been bad for four. This was a camp dump. Salary exchanged to make the Jones move possible so we could get a pick.
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When games matter again you will probably see Brodie back with Giordano. But now is the time to experiment. It is refreshing to see the coach doing it. I only wish we saw a few more kids in the line-up, but that is more a symptom of limited call ups and a lack of spots.
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That's a pretty serious leap imo. Backstrom numbers make Hiller look good and I don't see him recovering from his 5 year skid at 38. The Flames have access to Ramo and Hiller and Backstrom isn't an upgrade on either. I also don't think there are enough games to give him any sort of audition this season. He will be lucky to get three games. Pretty sure this was just a cap dump to get a pick for Jones.
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Nobody has suggested they know what they have in Ortio or suggested they don't give him an opportunity. But you are the one that just suggested they load the camp with a bunch of rookies with no NHL experience and put them in camp with Ortio (and his 40 games) and let them fight it out for the spots. It is neither ego or panic to suggest the Flames need more security then that.
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Do you realize you are advocating for a sub 900 goalie with 25 NHL games to be our starter next season because there is a possibility he could play well for the final dozen or so games he gets? Your suggesting that he competes with a bunch of other kids in camp with zero NHL games to see who gets to carry the load. And that's sticking to the rebuild plan? You seem to take it as a personal affront that others don't agree with you. Apparently this will be a travesty in development if the Flames don't give him the undisputed reigns. The Flames are also responsible for his poor play across the NHL and AHL this season. This is all based on 3 quality starts out of the last 4 games he has played. Sorry man, but even if he is solid for the rest of the season 40 or so games isn't enough to count on him to carry the load next season. Ortio's will and should get the bulk of the starts to finish the season. If he earns it he will be back next season and he should get a bunch of starts as one of the two roster goalies. Then we will know what we have in the guy and treat him accordingly. But it will be as one of two goalies and the intelligent approach is to bring on someone that serves as a legitimate starter option for the Flames. Now and into the future.
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Our top 3 centres are Backlund, Monahan, and Bennett. Top 3 D are Brodie, Giordano, and Hamilton. Gaudreau is an elite winger. Frolik is a very good top 6 two way winger. That's a great start. We have the worst goaltending in the league this season and it's likely the biggest difference between playoffs and bottom 3. So why are we waiting to find a goalie? We need another RW or LW first?
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Well this part we agree on. If those guys aren't available at a cost that makes sense though I have less confidence of going forward with a Ramo / Ortio tandem. I do respect the debate of Ramo vs someone like Varlamov. Ramo costs you nothing where Varlamov will probably cost you at least a second round pick. Ramo will probably come in around 4.5x2 where Varlamov is 6x3. Ramo is a .910 goalie and Varlamov has been for parts of his career (including this season.) But personally I think Varlamov is a much better goalie. At worst he is an adequate stop gap that buys us time to find a better option via development or trade. At best he has shown that he can be a high end starter in the NHL. He is only 27 years old. Ramo is what he is. He is below mediocre who can jump between long spaces of good and terrible. If you go with Ramo and Ortio your really going with Ortio, at least in so far as the future goes. I want a lot more confidence that we have a credible goalie in our system going into the future. It's not an analogue game. You don't ignore a clear area of weakness while you work on upgrading in another area. Especially not for a position as crucial as goal. Besides, it's not as doom and gloom as you make it out to be. We are looking good at centre and D and we have a couple of good pieces on wing. Fixing the bottom 2 / 6 and upgrading D are the easiest things to do.
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How many first round picks don't turn out? It doesn't mean we stop selecting in the first round. It should also improve your comfort in trading a couple of seconds (or something) for a goalie. You are correct though. Trading for a goalie doesn't always work out. (Does a lot though, look how many starters were acquired via trade). Just like developing a goalie doesn't always work out. What we do know if failure to find a starter WILL derail the rebuild. Which is why I want more options, not less. Ortio AND XXXX is much better then Ortio and fingers crossed. I will disagree with one thing you implied. The risk of Ortio not making it is much higher then the risk of a guy like Kuemper, Anderson, etc not making it. Just look at the comparison between him and Kuemper above. Would you trade for Ortio if he was on another team? He wouldn't even be on our radar. Most of us probably wouldn't even know his name.
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Look back on a majority of the young goalie trades. There were plenty of warts at the time of the trade. A good chunk of them worked out. The point isn't to find the perfect goalie. If he exists then your probably not getting him. I look at a guy like Kuemper. He has 4 seasons of being an NHL back-up with 80-games over that time (Ortio has 25). His SV% over that time is .912 (Ortio's is .897) and he is trending up (Ortio has been trending down for 3 seasons). I don't even know if he is available. But he is the kind of guy that is knocking on the door for the starter position. If he can be had for a decent price I would take it. Granted I would rather have him with a more established goalie. I would consider wiping the slate clean and going with something like Varlamov / Kuemper if we could. That would give us a great set-up in net without blocking Gilles. But Varlamov / Ortio or Kuemper / Ortio seems more practical IF Ortio plays well to finish the season.
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I don't know. Which is why I said they may not be available. You listed two of the obvious ones (25 is pretty young in goalie years). Markstrom might be in that boat as well, but I doubt Vancouver deals with us plus he is still pretty green. Hammond and Kuemper might both be options as well. I am looking for a deal like when Buffalo picked up Lehner. Something not super expensive but something that gives us a legitimate chance at finding a good young goalie. I would like to have two bullets in the gun in case we misfire on Ortio.
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These types of posts are silly. Not only is it full of error but even if taken at face value it doesn't actually say anything. I can point to someone that won the lottery but it doesn't mean I quit my job (how many goalies on the other end of the spectrum didn't make it?) Quick making it means nothing for Ortio. It doesn't change the facts that Ortio lost his AHL starting job, cleared waivers, and hasn't been good at either level. It misrepresents the fact that LA actually kept both goalies until one earned the spot because they weren't willing to take an irresponsible gamble on just one of them. Ironically it shows Toronto's failure for gambling on an unproven starter with a Ramo level back-up plan. Your entire argument boils down to "its possible". Which nobody disagrees with. But "its possible" doesn't pay the rent. "It" will be just as possible with another option in the house. I will agree that the Flames need to be responsible in acquiring the other option. I am willing to pay a fair bit for the right option. But paying too much for the right option or (worse) a desperate option isn't smart asset management. Having a Ramo/Ortio plan B (or better yet plan D) is fine. But it isn't the first avenue I would investigate. The Flames need to see what else is available before they gamble on something like that.
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Outside of JJ (who I think was ready to start Ortio 82-games next season without a back-up after Ortio played his second good game) I am not getting a good sense on what people expect the Flames to do next season. We have one goalie signed to an NHL contract next season and Gilles isn't ready. If the season was to start tomorrow we wouldn't have anyone in net. I look at the approach for each goalie differently. Below is my list for addressing each position sorted by preference (reason it might not happen in brackets): Goalie 1: Find a young NHL ready goalie via trade that can be another option along with Goalie 2 (might not be available, might be too expensive to acquire) Find an established NHL goalie in his mid to late 20s that can be a legitimate starter for no more then 3 seasons (might not be available, might be too expensive to acquire) Sign Ramo to a short term deal - no longer then two years (may not be willing to sign a short term deal) Acquire a veteran goalie on a short term deal - no longer then two years - via trade or free agency Goalie 2: Sign Ortio to an extension - assuming he plays well for the rest of the season (may not play well for the rest of the season, may not be willing to sign) Find a young NHL ready goalie to play 30 or so games (may not be available, may be to expensive) Find a veteran back-up It sounds like some of you are suggesting that finding goalie 1 isn't a requirement because of Ortio's play. Instead we should slot Ortio into that spot and get a cheap back-up for him to play with (or skip 1 and 2 and just go with Ramo). It seems silly I need to remind people that Ortio lost his starting job in the AHL and has posted a sub 900 record in both leagues (Poulin has been much better in the same number of starts). Ramo and Ortio BOTH cleared waivers this season. Sounds like a sure thing to me! I can't even imagine how quickly many of you will turn if we went that route and Ortio wasn't able to manage the starting job. I want Ortio to succeed. But there is nothing stopping him from being successful with another goalie present. There is plenty stopping the Flames from being successful if it is just Ortio present. Personally I am way more concerned with the latter then I am with the former. Giving an NHL starting job to an unproven goalie who hasn't been good this season = a TERRIBLE idea. Not sure how that is possibly up for debate.
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Your one of the few humans on the planet that would be comfortable putting all of the eggs in that basket. The guy is playing for a contract, not the undisputed starter position. Having more then one option in net is the only smart move. If Ortio is solid next season that is great. That isn't a bad thing. But expecting G him to be the starter with Joe Backup on the bench is a serious gamble that no GM would be willing to take.
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Well Hartley made us look sheepish for questioning his decision. Silly us.
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I am sure they have a reason. I am relatively sure that Hartley can be taken for face value in that they have developed a rotation. I am also sure that is ridiculous and flies in the face of "Always Earned." Not that Hartley has cared much about that this season.
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What he said.
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It's not a complicated debate. Ortio played well and earned the next start. He isn't getting it because Hartley decided they are going to be minor hockey and follow an arbitrary goalie rotation. It doesn't make sense and it is just one more pebble in the pile of Hartley nonsense.
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Indeed. Schedule now. Get goalie X going before that. Merit before that. Playing a developing goalie in an easier and meaningless game after a strong performance clearly doesn't make any sense.
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Those that are supporting Hartley, tell me this. If Hiller does well tonight (very possible against Buffalo) who do you think Hartley starts the next game?