2024 NHL draft - A New Hope

[travel_dude]

Per Stathletes, current probability to make NHL playoff cut:

EAST Lightning: 88.1%

NYI: 69.7%

Flyers: 51.6%

Capitals: 41.7%

Red Wings: 29.0%

NJD: 11.7%

Sabres: 4.9%

Penguins: 3.6%

 

WEST Kings: 89.6%

Predators: 89.1%

VGK: 88.7%

Wild: 13.8%

Kraken: 12.1%

Flames: 6.0%

Blues: 0.8%

 

What does that prove for final standings - nothing.  I don't really get how they give us 6% and STL 0.8%.  The only thing I can figure is that STL can only really reach a WC spot, while we have 3rd in the Pacific and two WC spots to fight for.  I wouldn't say we have an easier schedule.  They have a B2B against SJS and ANA, while we have 2x B2B's; away VAN/home BUF and LA/ANA.

[redfire11]

Yakemchuk or Inginla and I would be happy

[Thebrewcrew]

3 hours ago, jjgallow said:

 

100%.  If Tij is gone, there's some fantastic D which will drop to us.

I think it would be tough to pass on Catton. Really high end skill. Gonna score 50 goals and 100pts on a team that’s not very talented.

 

 

I really like the defence at the top of this class though. Sam Dickinson is real high on my wish list 

[The_People1]

59 minutes ago, Thebrewcrew said:

 

I really like the defence at the top of this class though. Sam Dickinson is real high on my wish list 

 

There are several teams picking in top 8 that are starving for a RHS RD.

 

SJS and CHI need everything.

 

ANA might take the best RD available because they traded Drysdale this season.

 

OTT and BUF have messed up D pairings because no RD.  I bet they take a RD no matter what.  One will take Parekh if available and the other will take Yakemchuk.

 

ARZ was rumoured to be interested in Andersson.  They could target a RD as well to help with their D pairs.

 

What all this means is Sam Dickinson may fall to the 8-10 range because teams that need D want RD more than LD.

[Thebrewcrew]

45 minutes ago, The_People1 said:

 

There are several teams picking in top 8 that are starving for a RHS RD.

 

SJS and CHI need everything.

 

ANA might take the best RD available because they traded Drysdale this season.

 

OTT and BUF have messed up D pairings because no RD.  I bet they take a RD no matter what.  One will take Parekh if available and the other will take Yakemchuk.

 

ARZ was rumoured to be interested in Andersson.  They could target a RD as well to help with their D pairs.

 

What all this means is Sam Dickinson may fall to the 8-10 range because teams that need D want RD more than LD.

Makes sense.

 

Here's my take on the real bad teams.

 

CHI/SJ- I think both would prefer a forward. Especially, Chicago.

 

ANA- RHD, as you said. Set in the middle with Carlsson/McTavish and for now, Zegras.

 

CBJ- I think a centre. I could see them taking a homerun swing on a Cayden Lindstrom.

 

MTL/BUF/OTT- give me a ton of troubles trying to project. Buffalo's entire forward group is almost exclusively 1st rounders, RHD , makes sense like you said. MTL I would go with the highest skill guy available. 

 

There's a negative connotation with a "safe pick" but that's what I think Dickinson is and I mean it in the best way possible. I think the floor is a Hanifin type where you can roll him out there 20 mins a night. A reliable, top 4 guy at minimum. A guy like Parekh is either going to be an excellent player, or he won't stick in the league. There's so much variance with him. 

[jjgallow]

21 minutes ago, Thebrewcrew said:

Makes sense.

 

Here's my take on the real bad teams.

 

CHI/SJ- I think both would prefer a forward. Especially, Chicago.

 

ANA- RHD, as you said. Set in the middle with Carlsson/McTavish and for now, Zegras.

 

CBJ- I think a centre. I could see them taking a homerun swing on a Cayden Lindstrom.

 

MTL/BUF/OTT- give me a ton of troubles trying to project. Buffalo's entire forward group is almost exclusively 1st rounders, RHD , makes sense like you said. MTL I would go with the highest skill guy available. 

 

There's a negative connotation with a "safe pick" but that's what I think Dickinson is and I mean it in the best way possible. I think the floor is a Hanifin type where you can roll him out there 20 mins a night. A reliable, top 4 guy at minimum. A guy like Parekh is either going to be an excellent player, or he won't stick in the league. There's so much variance with him. 

 

there is indeed a negative connotation with a "safe pick" but only if there is a lack of elite potential.

 

Dickinson's #s are good.   someone should ask him to start shooting rhs though

[The_People1]

1 hour ago, Thebrewcrew said:

Makes sense.

 

Here's my take on the real bad teams.

 

CHI/SJ- I think both would prefer a forward. Especially, Chicago.

 

ANA- RHD, as you said. Set in the middle with Carlsson/McTavish and for now, Zegras.

 

CBJ- I think a centre. I could see them taking a homerun swing on a Cayden Lindstrom.

 

MTL/BUF/OTT- give me a ton of troubles trying to project. Buffalo's entire forward group is almost exclusively 1st rounders, RHD , makes sense like you said. MTL I would go with the highest skill guy available. 

 

There's a negative connotation with a "safe pick" but that's what I think Dickinson is and I mean it in the best way possible. I think the floor is a Hanifin type where you can roll him out there 20 mins a night. A reliable, top 4 guy at minimum. A guy like Parekh is either going to be an excellent player, or he won't stick in the league. There's so much variance with him. 

 

I don't mind "safe pick" if the floor is top 4 D.  Because the ceiling is also very high.  

 

I feel Yakemchuk is also safe.  Floor is high but the ceiling might be a 2/3 at the NHL level.  But the most safe thing about Yakemchuk is he's a local boy from Calgary.  Plays for the Calgary Hitmen.  There shouldn't be a flight risk with Yakemchuk wanting out and playing closer to USA or wherever.  But again, I think OTT, BUF, and ARZ will draft a RD.  There's only 3 RHS RD in that range.  Levshunov, Parekh, and Yakemchuk.

[Thebrewcrew]

1 hour ago, jjgallow said:

 

there is indeed a negative connotation with a "safe pick" but only if there is a lack of elite potential.

 

Dickinson's #s are good.   someone should ask him to start shooting rhs though

I only consider Dickinson safe because he’s a guy you can pencil into your top 4 for ten seasons and feel good about it. I would be really surprised if he doesn’t have a long career. Not sure that he’s going to put up eye popping stats as an NHLer but you’re going to be getting a well-rounded defender. The way the game has shifted, it’s hard to find defenceman at the top of drafts that can actually defend.

 

11 minutes ago, The_People1 said:

 

I don't mind "safe pick" if the floor is top 4 D.  Because the ceiling is also very high.  

 

I feel Yakemchuk is also safe.  Floor is high but the ceiling might be a 2/3 at the NHL level.  But the most safe thing about Yakemchuk is he's a local boy from Calgary.  Plays for the Calgary Hitmen.  There shouldn't be a flight risk with Yakemchuk wanting out and playing closer to USA or wherever.  But again, I think OTT, BUF, and ARZ will draft a RD.  There's only 3 RHS RD in that range.  Levshunov, Parekh, and Yakemchuk.

 

I like Yakemchuk. Not the biggest fan of his skating,  but you can’t argue with the production. He also plays with an edge too. There’s value in that, he can play on any pair. Offensive touch with a little snarl. I think I would have him right there with Buium, just outside the top ten.Of course as you said, RD might elevate his stock.

[jjgallow]

35 minutes ago, Thebrewcrew said:

I only consider Dickinson safe because he’s a guy you can pencil into your top 4 for ten seasons and feel good about it. I would be really surprised if he doesn’t have a long career. Not sure that he’s going to put up eye popping stats as an NHLer but you’re going to be getting a well-rounded defender. The way the game has shifted, it’s hard to find defenceman at the top of drafts that can actually defend.

 

Defenders without flash are super important.  But, can be acquired later in the draft, or through trades, or free agency.    It's possible because not every team appreciates them.

 

The top 10 is really where you get your elite talent on reasonable contract, and sometimes the only place.   I would base it very heavily on achieving that.    Now, I'm not saying Dickinson isn't that.   Not sure yet.

[The_People1]

11 hours ago, jjgallow said:

 

Defenders without flash are super important.  But, can be acquired later in the draft, or through trades, or free agency.    It's possible because not every team appreciates them.

 

The top 10 is really where you get your elite talent on reasonable contract, and sometimes the only place.   I would base it very heavily on achieving that.    Now, I'm not saying Dickinson isn't that.   Not sure yet.

 

Agreed.  I think defending studs like Tanev-types are super important and often a team's MVP.  But at the same time, they can be found in Round 2 and beyond.  Mostly all D and no offense.  Those 6'-2" to 6"-4" 215 to 230 lbs shut down D.  In the first round, you want to swing for elite offense.

[robrob74]

If the Flames drop in standings, I only think they can drop as far down as 8th overall. I dunno, a 7 point drop to where Montreal is can be doable, but I can only see them getting to where the Pens are. It's not that big of a drop, but I do think they can give Montreal a run for their money. 

 

It really depends on where Markstrom is with his injury and if he's out long. Although, not having Hanifin and Tanev really point to the need of having a real shut down D pair for the tougher teams, especially on the road.

[The_People1]

14 minutes ago, robrob74 said:

If the Flames drop in standings, I only think they can drop as far down as 8th overall. I dunno, a 7 point drop to where Montreal is can be doable, but I can only see them getting to where the Pens are. It's not that big of a drop, but I do think they can give Montreal a run for their money. 

 

It really depends on where Markstrom is with his injury and if he's out long. Although, not having Hanifin and Tanev really point to the need of having a real shut down D pair for the tougher teams, especially on the road.

 

Looking at the remaining schedule, Flames could potentially go 8W-9L for about 16-points.  Unfortunately the Flames schedule ends easy.  SJSx2, ANAx2, CHI,  ARZ, MTL, and BUF.  

 

My guess is we pick 10/11 overall.

 

[conundrumed]

20 hours ago, The_People1 said:

 

Agreed.  I think defending studs like Tanev-types are super important and often a team's MVP.  But at the same time, they can be found in Round 2 and beyond.  Mostly all D and no offense.  Those 6'-2" to 6"-4" 215 to 230 lbs shut down D.  In the first round, you want to swing for elite offense.

If this is regarding Dickinson, I'll weigh in. If Eiserman and Dickinson are available at our pick, I'll be shocked in a good way. Decision time. Do you want a potential top goal-scorer or a potential 1D?

For me at least, those 2 are the most potent picks in this draft. Eiseman is really getting talked down by most, which is fine. "He's kinda one-dimensional" they say, but that dimension is the most elite shot/scorer in the entire draft. So if we need one of those...I've seen him live a few times and tourneys/streaming U18. We've got Zary, Pelletier, maybe Kerins eventually, guys that can dart around fishing pucks or playmaking. If you want a finisher, he is definitely the guy. His shot has about 3 different dimensions of release, and all 3 are heavy, heavy shots. He can pull it to his skates and not lose much in velocity. All he wants to do is score and that shot is pretty accurate from anywhere.

Dickinson is the best Dman in this draft for me and I hope no one agrees. Although I've generally donated my Sting season's tix to Big Brothers/Sisters this year, I can still watch everything on TV. I use a secondary internet provider based in London so get all Knights games too. I dare anyone to tell me what Dickinson's shortcomings are. I hate when he steps onto the ice vs the Sting. He's exceptional at everything. His skating and IQ are elite. That's his calling card. He's NEVER in trouble anywhere on the ice. Rarely a bad pinch, great control on D. QBs the PP and PK with zero problems.

If he doesn't go as the 1st dman or within the top 10 there is no way we can't take him. I think he could make this roster by 20 and takeover any role he wants eventually. With his skating and IQ, I just don't think that it will take him long to transition to much higher competition. Canada not having him on the U20 roster was laughable. But they reward the older players. He should have been a top 4 at the very least. I have very little doubt that he'll end up the best Dman from this draft class.

I've read through his scouting reports, seeing him compared to Sergechev, which is fine. They worry about his offence. What I know, is defensively, sure, I get it. But he's smart. London has lots of offence. He makes sure they get the puck. When they need a goal, he's out there, creating a goal. Vs Sarnia in a game earlier this year, we were up by 1. He came out, joined/created the rushes and had 2 goals in no time.

That's him. So I hope everyone gets enamoured by Russians, because this kid is a top shelf Dman.

Skating, edges etc don't need work, defending, gap control, aggressive on the boards doesn't need work, smart outlet passing, pinching need very little work. He'll just have to get used to everything happening faster.

I doubt that will be a problem.

You don't get close to what he is in the 2nd rd. It wouldn't shock me if he's gone at our pick.

But those are the 2 guys that I want. Potential elite goal-scorer or 1D. If both are gone, I lean towards forwards with size. We have enough playmaking fwds, we need finishers.

[The_People1]

3 hours ago, conundrumed said:

If this is regarding Dickinson, I'll weigh in. If Eiserman and Dickinson are available at our pick, I'll be shocked in a good way. Decision time. Do you want a potential top goal-scorer or a potential 1D?

For me at least, those 2 are the most potent picks in this draft. Eiseman is really getting talked down by most, which is fine. "He's kinda one-dimensional" they say, but that dimension is the most elite shot/scorer in the entire draft. So if we need one of those...I've seen him live a few times and tourneys/streaming U18. We've got Zary, Pelletier, maybe Kerins eventually, guys that can dart around fishing pucks or playmaking. If you want a finisher, he is definitely the guy. His shot has about 3 different dimensions of release, and all 3 are heavy, heavy shots. He can pull it to his skates and not lose much in velocity. All he wants to do is score and that shot is pretty accurate from anywhere.

Dickinson is the best Dman in this draft for me and I hope no one agrees. Although I've generally donated my Sting season's tix to Big Brothers/Sisters this year, I can still watch everything on TV. I use a secondary internet provider based in London so get all Knights games too. I dare anyone to tell me what Dickinson's shortcomings are. I hate when he steps onto the ice vs the Sting. He's exceptional at everything. His skating and IQ are elite. That's his calling card. He's NEVER in trouble anywhere on the ice. Rarely a bad pinch, great control on D. QBs the PP and PK with zero problems.

If he doesn't go as the 1st dman or within the top 10 there is no way we can't take him. I think he could make this roster by 20 and takeover any role he wants eventually. With his skating and IQ, I just don't think that it will take him long to transition to much higher competition. Canada not having him on the U20 roster was laughable. But they reward the older players. He should have been a top 4 at the very least. I have very little doubt that he'll end up the best Dman from this draft class.

I've read through his scouting reports, seeing him compared to Sergechev, which is fine. They worry about his offence. What I know, is defensively, sure, I get it. But he's smart. London has lots of offence. He makes sure they get the puck. When they need a goal, he's out there, creating a goal. Vs Sarnia in a game earlier this year, we were up by 1. He came out, joined/created the rushes and had 2 goals in no time.

That's him. So I hope everyone gets enamoured by Russians, because this kid is a top shelf Dman.

Skating, edges etc don't need work, defending, gap control, aggressive on the boards doesn't need work, smart outlet passing, pinching need very little work. He'll just have to get used to everything happening faster.

I doubt that will be a problem.

You don't get close to what he is in the 2nd rd. It wouldn't shock me if he's gone at our pick.

But those are the 2 guys that I want. Potential elite goal-scorer or 1D. If both are gone, I lean towards forwards with size. We have enough playmaking fwds, we need finishers.

 

It's possible and probable that teams needing RD will take Levshunov, Parekh, and Yakemchuk ahead of Dickinson and that drops Dickinson down to 8/9... But hard to imagine Dickinson will be there at 10/11/12 for us.

 

Based on strength of schedule, the Flames have it easy so Flames might even pick 13/14th.

[robrob74]

1 hour ago, The_People1 said:

 

It's possible and probable that teams needing RD will take Levshunov, Parekh, and Yakemchuk ahead of Dickinson and that drops Dickinson down to 8/9... But hard to imagine Dickinson will be there at 10/11/12 for us.

 

Based on strength of schedule, the Flames have it easy so Flames might even pick 13/14th.

Flames are hard to read. They get up for tougher teams because they know they have to try. For the lower teams they take them for granted. I don't think we can have a good read on what they'll do. 
 

At this stage, I see them drafting between 8-10. Our D just isn't good without Hanifin and Tanev. Weegar and Andersson are a different breed but just not the kind of defensive that thrives against top lines. 

[taz89]

Based on the last 3 games, they have thrown in the towel.  I wouldn't be surprised if they go 4-12-1 or something like that the rest of the way.

[travel_dude]

6 minutes ago, taz89 said:

Based on the last 3 games, they have thrown in the towel.  I wouldn't be surprised if they go 4-12-1 or something like that the rest of the way.

 

Game 1 and 2 of the slide were both day games, in the East.  Pretty hard to say they threw in the towel considering they were coming off a big win against Tampa.  They start well against the Panthers and the AVS.  They looked lost against CAR.   

[The_People1]

10 minutes ago, taz89 said:

Based on the last 3 games, they have thrown in the towel.  I wouldn't be surprised if they go 4-12-1 or something like that the rest of the way.

 

The last 3 games were against the 3 best teams in the NHL though.  

 

SJS and ANA x2.  Gotta think that's 4-wins.  CHI we likely beat too... So that's 5-wins right there.  We probably best one of the good playoff teams too because that's what we do.

[travel_dude]

21 minutes ago, robrob74 said:

Flames are hard to read. They get up for tougher teams because they know they have to try. For the lower teams they take them for granted. I don't think we can have a good read on what they'll do. 
 

At this stage, I see them drafting between 8-10. Our D just isn't good without Hanifin and Tanev. Weegar and Andersson are a different breed but just not the kind of defensive that thrives against top lines. 

 

I think there is an idea that we take lower teams for granted.  What I believe is that we had issues with fast skating teams.  We slow the play down and when the teams use stretch passes and pressure the D in the O-zone it leads to fast breaks.  We play better against the better teams because they are predictable.  They play something similar to the way all good team play, so it's no mystery.  We struggled against the AVS because they have three players almost impossible to contain.  CAR is a team very difficult to score on, so if they get any lead at all, it's game over for us.

[travel_dude]

Do you folks think there is a benefit to trading a pick in this year for a pick in 2025?

For instance, trading a VAN pick to a team with no 2024 1st for a 2025 1st and a 2nd or 3rd in this year?

At worst we trade a late 1st for a late 1st.

 

We are losing a 2025 pick one way or the other. I think.

Reason why I am asking is whether there is enough talent late in the 1st to spend a 1st one.

[robrob74]

11 minutes ago, travel_dude said:

Do you folks think there is a benefit to trading a pick in this year for a pick in 2025?

For instance, trading a VAN pick to a team with no 2024 1st for a 2025 1st and a 2nd or 3rd in this year?

At worst we trade a late 1st for a late 1st.

 

We are losing a 2025 pick one way or the other. I think.

Reason why I am asking is whether there is enough talent late in the 1st to spend a 1st one.

If anyone thinks next years draft is better, its possible they'd want us to add for it...

[420since1974]

Depending on who you believe, there is a 63-74% chance that someone drafted in the first round plays any NHL games.

That drops to a 25-34% chance in the second round.

 

My opinion is that a late first has a one in three chance at making it to the NHL.

If any team is desperate enough to offer the Flames a 2025 first round pick and a 2nd or 3rd in 2024 in exchange for this year's Vancouver pick, I'd take it.

[travel_dude]

Per Stathletes, the current odds to make the Stanley Cup Playoffs:

 

EAST

Bolts: 89.3%

Flyers: 77.1%

NYI: 72.4%

Capitals: 28.0%

Red Wings: 19.2%

Sabres: 5.4%

NJD: 5.3%

Penguins: 3.6%

 

WEST

Kings: 90.9%

VGK: 88.5%

Predators: 85.6%

Wild: 21.6%

Kraken : 11.2%

Blues: 1.2%

Flames: 1.0%

[travel_dude]

7 minutes ago, 420since1974 said:

Depending on who you believe, there is a 63-74% chance that someone drafted in the first round plays any NHL games.

That drops to a 25-34% chance in the second round.

 

My opinion is that a late first has a one in three chance at making it to the NHL.

If any team is desperate enough to offer the Flames a 2025 first round pick and a 2nd or 3rd in 2024 in exchange for this year's Vancouver pick, I'd take it.

 

They only do it because that team sees an available player who won't last.

 

[420since1974]

Agreed.