2023 Calgary Flames NHL Draft

[robrob74]

4 minutes ago, travel_dude said:

 

The thing that seems to favor Perreault (in rankings) is his seingle season scoring record.

My preference would be Wood, Barlow first, but those may not make it to us.

if he has a single season scoring record, how much could it be the line mates and how much is it him? Or if put with the right NHLers, can he do that in the bigs?

[travel_dude]

2 minutes ago, robrob74 said:

if he has a single season scoring record, how much could it be the line mates and how much is it him? Or if put with the right NHLers, can he do that in the bigs?

 

No doubt a lot.  Read what FN says about him, based on scouting reports...

 

https://flamesnation.ca/news/the-son-of-a-longtime-nhler-broke-auston-matthews-single-season-junior-scoring-record

[conundrumed]

17 hours ago, travel_dude said:

 

The thing that seems to favor Perreault (in rankings) is his seingle season scoring record.

My preference would be Wood, Barlow first, but those may not make it to us.

I'd be pretty choked if we chose Perrault with Musty on the board. Let someone else draft hype over ability. Perrault is very similar to his older brother, I've watched both enough to see the resemblance. Jacob is a great snipe and passer.
2020 27th oa. Likely about where Gabe should be also.

http://www.mynhldraft.com/2020-nhl-draft/player-profiles/Jacob-Perreault

 

Honestly they're great players at that level. The problem becomes going pro and needing to be bigger, faster, stronger, smarter. You don't have 5 seconds anymore, you've got 2, max.

I doubt Gabe has the size, hands or smarts to play in constant traffic, but he'll need them because he doesn't really have bottom 6 value. So that really needs to improve.

But if you want boom or bust, he's probably your guy. Just don't forget in 4 years that you wanted a 50/50 equation and start blaming mgmt while Musty never peaked and settled in as a solid 3rd line LW,

There will likely be about 6-8 guys available at 16 I'd take before Perrault. I do think that he's a fairly high risk pick in our current predicament. Drafts are so scary filled with hype/slander.lol

I trust our scouts.

[travel_dude]

2 hours ago, conundrumed said:

I'd be pretty choked if we chose Perrault with Musty on the board. Let someone else draft hype over ability. Perrault is very similar to his older brother, I've watched both enough to see the resemblance. Jacob is a great snipe and passer.
2020 27th oa. Likely about where Gabe should be also.

http://www.mynhldraft.com/2020-nhl-draft/player-profiles/Jacob-Perreault

 

Honestly they're great players at that level. The problem becomes going pro and needing to be bigger, faster, stronger, smarter. You don't have 5 seconds anymore, you've got 2, max.

I doubt Gabe has the size, hands or smarts to play in constant traffic, but he'll need them because he doesn't really have bottom 6 value. So that really needs to improve.

But if you want boom or bust, he's probably your guy. Just don't forget in 4 years that you wanted a 50/50 equation and start blaming mgmt while Musty never peaked and settled in as a solid 3rd line LW,

There will likely be about 6-8 guys available at 16 I'd take before Perrault. I do think that he's a fairly high risk pick in our current predicament. Drafts are so scary filled with hype/slander.lol

I trust our scouts.

 

I don't relish the job of the guys making the pick.

Unlike CBJ it's a brainer.

I just hope it's not a Janko type pick where the smartest person in room (so he thinks)  makes a choice like that.  I think we do well with some picks and fail at others.  I like Pelletier, but if the reason you pick him is he tells you that you would regret picking him, then I'm not sure that's a good enough reason.  He may still be a good pick and the best available at the time, but he has a long way to go to prove that.

[conundrumed]

5 hours ago, travel_dude said:

 

I don't relish the job of the guys making the pick.

Unlike CBJ it's a brainer.

I just hope it's not a Janko type pick where the smartest person in room (so he thinks)  makes a choice like that.  I think we do well with some picks and fail at others.  I like Pelletier, but if the reason you pick him is he tells you that you would regret picking him, then I'm not sure that's a good enough reason.  He may still be a good pick and the best available at the time, but he has a long way to go to prove that.

This will be his 22yo season. I think he'll be a good player. But we can't hold young players by the collar with zero leash. Being afraid to make a mistake is no way to be at ease and try to have fun with it. He looked like he was having a blast as a 4th liner.lol

"It's not supposed to be fun" - Sutter, probably.

[travel_dude]

1 hour ago, conundrumed said:

This will be his 22yo season. I think he'll be a good player. But we can't hold young players by the collar with zero leash. Being afraid to make a mistake is no way to be at ease and try to have fun with it. He looked like he was having a blast as a 4th liner.lol

"It's not supposed to be fun" - Sutter, probably.

 

The mistake, I think, was not building them early in the season.

That's both Pelletier and Phillips.

Phillips actually had a decent camp not even playing with NHL'ers.

Get them in early on as the extras.

Don't throw them away when them make a mistake.

They know what they did.

Coach them to think it through.

Pelletier had a lot of ambition and lots of go to his game.

Blame one OTL on him and then jerk him in and out, up and down.

Oops, this is a family site.

 

Too many passengers got the pass.

Role players are just that if that's all you give them.

I don't know what role Lucic really had, but he seemed to be immune to poor game criticism.

 

[conundrumed]

Some decent quotes from Musty during this past season:

 

“For my OHL career. I’ve worked on being a complete 200-foot player,” Musty stated.  

“This year it’s a lot better than it was last year. I’m getting more chances from the D-zone out of transition. Making plays and picking pucks off. Most of the new offence is being created from the D-zone.”

 

“I use my one-timer only on the power play. I don’t get the chance to use it on 5-on-5 play. I think it’s a good attribute to have on the power play,” Musty said. “I play that off-wing flank where I get those chances. I take those one-timers on the power play. I’m more comfortable with the standard wrist shot. I’m pretty accurate with it too. I think it’s my wrist shot.”

Becoming a potent power play scorer takes time.

“Definitely, the more goals you score. There are some good goalies in this league, and they do pre-scouts on teams. When you start scoring from there. Teams will sit there on you. It gives opportunities to other players. It’s a good mix. When you’re scoring you’re scoring. When they start to key on you, you can set up different plays. And work it to the other side more.”

 

It shows a pretty good understanding of how the game works. Only Barlow had more pts than Musty of OHL-eligible draftees. 1 more point in 5 more games. Barlow with way more goals but Musty's 2-to-1 assist-to-goal ratio speaks to the better playmaker.

So the more I deep-dive into everyone that could be in our range, I keep coming back to Musty as the highest floor and ceiling. A C would be ideal, but I'm just not seeing a top 6 C unless Moore falls. I could see him becoming a Brayden Point-type at ceiling. Danielson and Ritchie I'd be okay with, I just don't see a high ceiling atm.

Power forwards with hands and skating still hold a lot of weight in this league imho. There just aren't a lot of them.

And realistically, Walker Duehr is our best power forward. The whole premise of Lucic on 2nd line was a complete lack of power forwards. We NEED a good one as much as other glaring holes. I also believe Musty could challenge for a spot as early as the '24 season and almost definitely in '25.

Hope he sucks at the combine.lol

[travel_dude]

6 hours ago, conundrumed said:

So the more I deep-dive into everyone that could be in our range, I keep coming back to Musty as the highest floor and ceiling. A C would be ideal, but I'm just not seeing a top 6 C unless Moore falls. I could see him becoming a Brayden Point-type at ceiling. Danielson and Ritchie I'd be okay with, I just don't see a high ceiling atm.

 

So, I have some questions about ranking.  He is ranked all over the map, from 12th to 36st.  Even 14th by NHL Central Scouting for NA skaters.  Where do you currently rank him.  I know it doesn't matter where he is ranked as such.  I do wonder if we would be picking a late 1st player at 16.  Does is make sense, depending on the risers and fallers, that we consider dropping down or maybe targeting a 2nd first rounder.  Ideally, you try to get more ammo.  Just asking your opinion.

[conundrumed]

I’ll post my final list very soon, before it looks like I’m influenced by other lists.

I have the usual 5 in Tier 1.

I’ve move Musty to 9 after Barlow, Benson and Stone.

Simashev still 16th.

Musty looks like his general rank will land around 22-24.

The U18 tourney influences waaaay more than it should. Always does. He wasn’t there. He snubbed the USNTDP by going OHL, as did Terrance whom they took. I guess Musty must have hurt their feelings more or maybe declined.

Waaay better than Terrance who will be a rd 2-3 pick.

But we should be able to recoup a 3rd by dropping a bit maybe. or just take Simashev and focus on maybe Shaugabay in the 2nd. Kid’s got skills and solid background.

[jjgallow]

16 hours ago, conundrumed said:

I’ll post my final list very soon, before it looks like I’m influenced by other lists.

I have the usual 5 in Tier 1.

I’ve move Musty to 9 after Barlow, Benson and Stone.

Simashev still 16th.

Musty looks like his general rank will land around 22-24.

The U18 tourney influences waaaay more than it should. Always does. He wasn’t there. He snubbed the USNTDP by going OHL, as did Terrance whom they took. I guess Musty must have hurt their feelings more or maybe declined.

Waaay better than Terrance who will be a rd 2-3 pick.

But we should be able to recoup a 3rd by dropping a bit maybe. or just take Simashev and focus on maybe Shaugabay in the 2nd. Kid’s got skills and solid background.

 

I'll post mine after you've posted yours, I don't want my list influencing your rankings.

 

My list will absolutely be influenced by other lists and will leverage any and all forms of cheating that I am able to execute.

[travel_dude]

3 hours ago, jjgallow said:

 

I'll post mine after you've posted yours, I don't want my list influencing your rankings.

 

My list will absolutely be influenced by other lists and will leverage any and all forms of cheating that I am able to execute.

 

Don't want to influence how you present your list, but....

A draft ranking is just a moment in time view of where you see a player.

Or how you have been influenced to make it.

Why I have problems with just numbers and names is I don't see the justification for it.

Pyro used to do a really good job here with projections of the player for the top 10 at least.

Sometimes extended through the top 30.

They showed the comps to player types and ranking of their skills and strengths.

 

Saying that, I don't expect anyone to do that level of scouting.

There are enough scouting linked through Elite Prospects.

Some are free, some behind paywalls.

Overall they do a good job.

 

All I would expect you to do is say why you think player X fits us.

If you suggest which players you see as being the best fit, that is very helpful.

We know that no list will stand up to the actual picks, so that is perhaps helpful.

[jjgallow]

1 hour ago, travel_dude said:

 

Don't want to influence how you present your list, but....

A draft ranking is just a moment in time view of where you see a player.

Or how you have been influenced to make it.

Why I have problems with just numbers and names is I don't see the justification for it.

Pyro used to do a really good job here with projections of the player for the top 10 at least.

Sometimes extended through the top 30.

They showed the comps to player types and ranking of their skills and strengths.

 

Saying that, I don't expect anyone to do that level of scouting.

There are enough scouting linked through Elite Prospects.

Some are free, some behind paywalls.

Overall they do a good job.

 

All I would expect you to do is say why you think player X fits us.

If you suggest which players you see as being the best fit, that is very helpful.

We know that no list will stand up to the actual picks, so that is perhaps helpful.

 

 

I am super excited that we are already arguing about my list before it exists! 

 

This has huge potential!

 

 

So, I will do none of those things, because I believe in BPA and I will make absolutely zero effort at all to find a player that "fits" us, because I advocate strongly for BPA.

 

But also, if I were to project out based on the player's age and who they will play with, we essentially currently have a shoe-string right now.  blank slate, or close to it.   They all fit.

 

It will have no feelings, no emotions,    It will require AA batteries.

 

 

side note:

All of the above conflicts with my conviction that we should build out from G to D to F.     

  If you can draft that way great, but I would make no special efforts to do it.  Trades can do this.  In the same breath, D tends to get under-rated in drafts so  my lists will naturally gravitate to them.

 

side note:  I am super excited to see how the non-bpa crowd makes their case for downgrading our pick to a player that projects out as a third-line center.   Because tradition!

[travel_dude]

4 minutes ago, jjgallow said:

 

 

I am super excited that we are already arguing about my list before it exists! 

 

This has huge potential!

 

 

So, I will do none of those things, because I believe in BPA and I will make absolutely zero effort at all to find a player that "fits" us, because I advocate strongly for BPA.

 

But also, if I were to project out based on the player's age and who they will play with, we essentially currently have a shoe-string right now.  blank slate, or close to it.   They all fit.

 

It will have no feelings, no emotions,    It will require AA batteries.

 

 

side note:

All of the above conflicts with my conviction that we should build out from G to D to F.     

  If you can draft that way great, but I would make no special efforts to do it.  Trades can do this.  In the same breath, D tends to get under-rated in drafts so  my lists will naturally gravitate to them.

 

side note:  I am super excited to see how the non-bpa crowd makes their case for downgrading our pick to a player that projects out as a third-line center.   Because tradition!

 

BPA is fine, but you are talking about a conflagation of a multitude of sources for it.

Does a BPA that is slow skating benefit a team needing speed?

Does a BPA from the NY area who is committed to college cause you pause?

Anyway, that assumes that the player said to be BPA is actually BPA.

The only consensus BPA is Bedard, and some contrarion would likely say he is 2nd best.

The player choices by teams are seldom BPA for all teams.

So, you end up with a draft board that resembles all the playoff bracket guess that fail in round one.

 

[jjgallow]

4 minutes ago, travel_dude said:

 

BPA is fine, but you are talking about a conflagation of a multitude of sources for it.

Does a BPA that is slow skating benefit a team needing speed?

Does a BPA from the NY area who is committed to college cause you pause?

Anyway, that assumes that the player said to be BPA is actually BPA.

The only consensus BPA is Bedard, and some contrarion would likely say he is 2nd best.

The player choices by teams are seldom BPA for all teams.

So, you end up with a draft board that resembles all the playoff bracket guess that fail in round one.

 

 

 

Does a BPA that is slow skating benefit a team needing speed?

         

                it's very hard to tell.  Maybe the team needs to be slower?  😅

 

          We have zero ideas what we will need when this player starts to have a meaningful impact (~5 years).

             

           If we keep our current roster, all aged by 5 years then yes...we will be on the slow side lol.  Lucic forever!!!

 

           Seriously this is voodoo.  All we can say is:  "How important will speed be in the NHL 5 years from now?"

                                   And,  "How will the player's current skating speed factor into their projection?"

 

 

Does a BPA from the NY area who is committed to college cause you pause?

           

           Nope, because I would trade them long before it became an issue. like we should have done with both of ours.
           We also should have put a formal complaint in with Bettman with a hint of legal action if there was even a sniff of not getting full value.

           I also don't see this as a high value debate.  Erixon was just a bad pick period.  

           Fox was not a 1st rounder and unlikely to repeat.   I was fine with Coronato, as long as we handle it right.

            If we want to have a locality debate though, you could ask about local players.

                     Should we have gone out of our way to get Cale Makar?  Yes we should have.

 

 

The player choices by teams are seldom BPA for all teams.

 

   True, but this is because scouting and management is imperfect.   Teams don't typically know their needs 5 years out, and even if they did, they'd trade their way there.   The only exception might be a rebuilding team where most of their players are relevant in 5 years, and some holes can be projected.

 

Flames have been gutted, and we are old.   We project as a blank slate.

      

[conundrumed]

BPA is a fallacy until you do a redraft 5 yrs later and count the mistakes. Which only proves that after the first couple, nobody knows who the BPA is because they're all still developing. It's just a hollow catch-phrase.

Look at the '24 draft lists now and then next year. Why doesn't that bpa stay the same between 17 & 18yo?

But now it will between 18-19yo from jr leagues?

"Just draft the bpa" is nothing more than a cop out. As Mickey Redmond responded to Ken Daniels explaining eGF, "expected by whom"?lol

No 2 lists are consistent past 4-5, so it's nothing more than guessing who the bpa is. But the term is thrown around as a catch-all that makes no sense.

[conundrumed]

Without further ado, my list. I'll try to do a team-specific one later.

1. Bedard

2. Fantilli

3. Michkov

4. Carlsson

5. Smith

6. Benson

7. Barlow

8. Moore

9. Musty

10. Reinbacher

11. Leonard

12. Dvorsky

13. Sandin-Pellika

14. Sale

15. Wood

16. Simashev

17. Danielson

18. Honzek

19. Stenberg

20. Ritchie

21. Yager

22. Willander

23. Perrault

24. Brindley

25. Heidt

26. Cristall

27. Perron

28. Halttunen

29. Hrabel

30. Sawchyn

31. Gulyayev

32. Gauthier

[The_People1]

6 hours ago, conundrumed said:

 

8. Stone

 

 

Is this Oliver Moore's nickname?  

[The_People1]

6 hours ago, conundrumed said:

Without further ado, my list. I'll try to do a team-specific one later.

1. Bedard

2. Fantilli

3. Michkov

4. Carlsson

5. Smith

6. Benson

7. Barlow

8. Stone

9. Musty

10. Reinbacher

11. Leonard

12. Dvorsky

13. Sandin-Pellika

14. Sale

15. Wood

16. Simashev

17. Danielson

18. Honzek

19. Stenberg

20. Ritchie

21. Yager

22. Willander

23. Perrault

24. Brindley

25. Heidt

26. Cristall

27. Perron

28. Halttunen

29. Hrabel

30. Sawchyn

31. Gulyayev

32. Gauthier

 

Great list though.  Appreciate it.  It would be great to land Simashev and build up our D prospect pool.  Seems like a smart big shutdown D. 

[flames-fan-in-jets-land]

So taking into consideration the supposed new direction of the team, like others I would like to not draft the safe pick this year. This seems like the most opportune time to draft a dynamic boom or bust player. I'm not sure if someone like that is available at 16 but you can sign or trade for safe players anyday. Try highest ceiling regardless of floor.

[The_People1]

8 hours ago, conundrumed said:

BPA is a fallacy until you do a redraft 5 yrs later and count the mistakes. Which only proves that after the first couple, nobody knows who the BPA is because they're all still developing. It's just a hollow catch-phrase.

Look at the '24 draft lists now and then next year. Why doesn't that bpa stay the same between 17 & 18yo?

But now it will between 18-19yo from jr leagues?

"Just draft the bpa" is nothing more than a cop out. As Mickey Redmond responded to Ken Daniels explaining eGF, "expected by whom"?lol

No 2 lists are consistent past 4-5, so it's nothing more than guessing who the bpa is. But the term is thrown around as a catch-all that makes no sense.

 

I tend to agree mostly because BPA is subjective.  So what does it even mean to go BPA?  Per who's standard?  Central Scouting?  Or each individual team's BPA?

 

Not to mention, when two players are too close to call in floor and ceiling, go with team's build theme.  ie. GM is aiming for small/skilled, then take the smaller skilled player over the bigger slower.

[sak22]

1 hour ago, flames-fan-in-jets-land said:

So taking into consideration the supposed new direction of the team, like others I would like to not draft the safe pick this year. This seems like the most opportune time to draft a dynamic boom or bust player. I'm not sure if someone like that is available at 16 but you can sign or trade for safe players anyday. Try highest ceiling regardless of floor.

Who is this years Jankowski?

[conundrumed]

3 hours ago, The_People1 said:

 

Is this Oliver Moore's nickname?  

Bahaha...yeah...I'm not really sure if Oliver Stone is eligible. Fixed.

[conundrumed]

54 minutes ago, sak22 said:

Who is this years Jankowski?

This is where the nightmares live. The Jankowski/Colborne pick. Could it be Wood? Danielson? Honzek? Sale?

[conundrumed]

2 hours ago, flames-fan-in-jets-land said:

So taking into consideration the supposed new direction of the team, like others I would like to not draft the safe pick this year. This seems like the most opportune time to draft a dynamic boom or bust player. I'm not sure if someone like that is available at 16 but you can sign or trade for safe players anyday. Try highest ceiling regardless of floor.

Not sure I agree, but Jayden Perron epitomizes that. The kid has unbelievable skill and smarts, but that 5'8" thing again. If he were 6'1" he'd be top 10 easy. Honzek maybe? Wood. Cristall likely fits that. Yager, but not as much. Basically, guys that are top 6 or nothing. I would really hate nothing, given the state of our prospect pool.

[travel_dude]

10 hours ago, conundrumed said:

Without further ado, my list. I'll try to do a team-specific one later.

1. Bedard

2. Fantilli

3. Michkov

4. Carlsson

5. Smith

6. Benson

7. Barlow

8. Moore

9. Musty

10. Reinbacher

11. Leonard

12. Dvorsky

13. Sandin-Pellika

14. Sale

15. Wood

16. Simashev

 

So, what is your feeling on Simashev vs Reinbacher, should he drop.

Reason I ask is some suggest that Simashev might go and Reinbacher drop.

Which would you prefer?