2022 Offseason

[cross16]

2 minutes ago, conundrumed said:

Which is all good and well, but what's the number?

"You may not get a Matthew Tkachuk type, but you might get an Alex DeBrincat type".

DeBrincat is currently $6.4.

 

 

If I had to guess, Mang and his camp are in the 6 range. Flames likely more like 5 to 5.5.

 

Pure guess though. I think 5.5-6 is around where this likely needs to be on a long term deal. 

[travel_dude]

1 hour ago, sak22 said:

Like our friends to the north did with Nurse?

 

Well, he's no Kenny Capmaster Holland, that's for sure.  Just saying that we ended up offering that much this year anyway, more actually.  Perhaps you say 9.5M and he says "start the car".  If the final offer before he shut it down was 7.5M, then he would be dumb to accept that. 

 

It really makes no matter.  He wasn't signed last year and walked this year.  He may have had the same opinion last year, though he may have been less down on the city/country then.  Best summer ever might have made him feel at home.

 

The two wild card factors that we couldn't do anything about this year were:

1) not resolving the arena issue (that came later but who knows)

2) Canada COVID rules; inability to travel freely between countries    

[travel_dude]

34 minutes ago, cross16 said:

 

 

If I had to guess, Mang and his camp are in the 6 range. Flames likely more like 5 to 5.5.

 

Pure guess though. I think 5.5-6 is around where this likely needs to be on a long term deal. 

 

I think he would sign tomorrow for 6.

Less than that and he might be a bit of a holdout.

[MP5029]

2 hours ago, travel_dude said:

 

I was just saying if you want to ensure you have a player signed, sometimes you have to do the offer you don't like.  If he wasn't going to sign, you may know sooner.  Who knows.

This is exactly true…also everyone knew he was really good…his offer is probably only about 1-2 mil higher after the career year…he was still good for 8-8.5 before hand…but like you said they should have thrown a 9 or 9.5 at him last summer, if he rejected it then they would have had a good idea he wasn’t coming back…then TDL regardless of the season he would have fetch’s some assets 

[MP5029]

1 hour ago, cross16 said:

 

 

If I had to guess, Mang and his camp are in the 6 range. Flames likely more like 5 to 5.5.

 

Pure guess though. I think 5.5-6 is around where this likely needs to be on a long term deal. 

Seems about right…I’d be ok with a 6x6 for Manj or even longer at 6 would be fine too, not Too off from the first Monahan and Gaudreau contracts and I’d say he’s every bit as good as they were then?

[cross16]

12 minutes ago, MP5029 said:

Seems about right…I’d be ok with a 6x6 for Manj or even longer at 6 would be fine too, not Too off from the first Monahan and Gaudreau contracts and I’d say he’s every bit as good as they were then?

 

Monahan yes but not sure Gaudreau. 

 

Either way I agree 6X6 is a no brainer. 

[Heartbreaker]

 

Love.

[cross16]

Flames have elected to take Tkachuk to arbitration, which is interesting. it extends the deadline and gives them a bit more leverage and time. 

 

 

[Thebrewcrew]

Since 10.5x8 for Gaudreau leaked, I think that's gonna be the number Tkachuk is looking for. I don't know if Tkachuk wants to sign for 8yrs, but I do think he will want 10.5

[The_People1]

33 minutes ago, cross16 said:

Flames have elected to take Tkachuk to arbitration, which is interesting. it extends the deadline and gives them a bit more leverage and time. 

 

 

 

"No longer eligible for offer sheet from a team"... Would this only apply to during the arbitration period?  Or even afterwards too?

[The_People1]

6 minutes ago, Thebrewcrew said:

Since 10.5x8 for Gaudreau leaked, I think that's gonna be the number Tkachuk is looking for. I don't know if Tkachuk wants to sign for 8yrs, but I do think he will want 10.5

 

Boy, let NJ sign him to $10.6-mil x 5 and we take the 4 first round picks.

[cross16]

7 minutes ago, Thebrewcrew said:

Since 10.5x8 for Gaudreau leaked, I think that's gonna be the number Tkachuk is looking for. I don't know if Tkachuk wants to sign for 8yrs, but I do think he will want 10.5

 

If Tkachuk's agents were smart (and they are) this is exactly what they should be doing. 

 

The optimism side of this, is if they are electing to extend the deadline and potentially cost themselves money (Tkachuk will get at least 9 or more in arbitration now) you would assume there is mutual interest on some kind of extension. 

 

The pessimistic side is it's not great that at this point they are not close enough on a long term deal that they need to push this deadline. I'm not sure they were worried about an offer sheet, this to me is to remove the chance of Tkachuk just taking his qualifying offer without the Flames knowing. 

[JTech780]

The risk I guess is that instead of getting the 1x$9m QO, Tkachuk is getting at least $9m on a 1 year deal in arbitration. That’s the minimum offer.  
 

Basically instead of the 22nd being the deadline they have bought themselves an extra week or two depending on when their hearing is scheduled. The earliest it can be is July 27th and the latest is Aug. 11th. 
 

This is a move that doesn’t get used too often, but I don’t think Treliving had much of a choice. I don’t think we can read into it too much to suggest how negotiations are going, it just moves the finish line back a bit.

[cross16]

5 minutes ago, The_People1 said:

 

"No longer eligible for offer sheet from a team"... Would this only apply to during the arbitration period?  Or even afterwards too?

 

I'm not sure what you mean by arbitration period. 

 

What this does is essentially remove the qualifying offer from the equation. Flames still retain his rights but Tkachuk can no longer just phone the Flames up and say " ok I'm taking my QO".  Between now and the hearing, which we won't hear about for probably 10 days or more, Tkachuk can't take his QO and cannot receive an offer sheet but can continue to negotiate with the Flames.

 

once you go to arbitration and the arbitrators makes their ruling that is a binding contract and because he would be under contract an offer sheet would not be an option. 

[robrob74]

2 hours ago, travel_dude said:

 

Well, he's no Kenny Capmaster Holland, that's for sure.  Just saying that we ended up offering that much this year anyway, more actually.  Perhaps you say 9.5M and he says "start the car".  If the final offer before he shut it down was 7.5M, then he would be dumb to accept that. 

 

It really makes no matter.  He wasn't signed last year and walked this year.  He may have had the same opinion last year, though he may have been less down on the city/country then.  Best summer ever might have made him feel at home.

 

The two wild card factors that we couldn't do anything about this year were:

1) not resolving the arena issue (that came later but who knows)

2) Canada COVID rules; inability to travel freely between countries    

my assumption is the Flames would have offered in the 70-80 point range, and maybe mid range. Maybe the mid 80's. And Johnny was probably like, I do so much for this team to only be worth 8-8.25.  I wonder if the flames offered in the 9's they'd have signed him. If they went with his ask, they could have always traded him. Oh well. We will never know the offer. 
 

any new rumours?

 

i actually feel better about the silence. I want something to happen but not signing a ludicrous contract is better than being anchored with one in a few years. 
 

 

[travel_dude]

4 minutes ago, cross16 said:

 

I'm not sure what you mean by arbitration period. 

 

What this does is essentially remove the qualifying offer from the equation. Flames still retain his rights but Tkachuk can no longer just phone the Flames up and say " ok I'm taking my QO".  Between now and the hearing, which we won't hear about for probably 10 days or more, Tkachuk can't take his QO and cannot receive an offer sheet. 

 

once you go to arbitration, whatever the arbitrator awards is binding. 

 

They must have been concerned about the QO to decide this.

I get this gives them more time without fear of a OS being signed.

But was any team goiing to offer something higher than $9M x 5?

5 years the max for averagng, so anything longer is more expensive.

 

Anyway, it's interesting to say the least.

[cross16]

2 minutes ago, travel_dude said:

 

They must have been concerned about the QO to decide this.

I get this gives them more time without fear of a OS being signed.

But was any team goiing to offer something higher than $9M x 5?

5 years the max for averagng, so anything longer is more expensive.

 

Anyway, it's interesting to say the least.

 

I don't think it was the offer sheet they feared. I think it was that at any point in time Tkachuk could just call them, take the QO and go to UFA. He had a lot of leverage. 

 

now he can't do that so the Flames gain a small part of leverage back and also extend the deadline. 

[sak22]

7 minutes ago, The_People1 said:

 

Boy, let NJ sign him to $10.6-mil x 5 and we take the 4 first round picks.

If it's what both sides wanted it could've been done by now

[robrob74]

5 minutes ago, cross16 said:

 

I don't think it was the offer sheet they feared. I think it was that at any point in time Tkachuk could just call them, take the QO and go to UFA. 

 

now he can't do that so the Flames gain a small part of leverage back and also extend the deadline. 

if an arbitrator rules, can the deal still only be a one year though? They can't provide duration only a number that is supposed to be good for both sides. No? 

[cross16]

Just now, robrob74 said:

if an arbitrator rules, can the deal still only be a one year though? They can't provide duration only a number that is supposed to be good for both sides. No? 

 

The arbitration award will only be 1 year. Arbitrators cannot give 2 year deals to players 1 year away from UFA

[cross16]

4 minutes ago, sak22 said:

If it's what both sides wanted it could've been done by now

 

Agreed. If an offer sheet was coming for Tkachuk it would have been presented by now IMO. With arbitration rights any team would know this was possible and if you are offering someone 10 mill you'd want to on your books right away, not wait until deep in the offseason IMO. 

 

[robrob74]

4 minutes ago, cross16 said:

 

The arbitration award will only be 1 year. Arbitrators cannot give 2 year deals to players 1 year away from UFA

 

they can still get a deal done before, but this seems like a bad play if it's only one year. I get he could just accept aQO anyway and it would be a 1 year, but, it means it walks him right to UFA anyway, and we basically lose him next off season. Yikes.

 

for me this just puts him in Gaudreau territory going into next off season. Can he be dealt at the trade deadline if it's only a one year, or are the flames obligated to keep him the full year if they have to honour any arb decisions?

[JTech780]

Just now, robrob74 said:

 

they can still get a deal done before, but this seems like a bad play if it's only one year. I get he could just accept aQO anyway and it would be a 1 year, but, it means it walks him right to UFA anyway, and we basically lose him next off season. Yikes.

It was on the table regardless, this just pushes the deadline back a week or two.

[The_People1]

13 minutes ago, sak22 said:

If it's what both sides wanted it could've been done by now

 

These things take time though

[The_People1]

6 minutes ago, robrob74 said:

 

they can still get a deal done before, but this seems like a bad play if it's only one year. I get he could just accept aQO anyway and it would be a 1 year, but, it means it walks him right to UFA anyway, and we basically lose him next off season. Yikes.

 

Ya I don't see how Flames gain leverage if the result is a 1-year award from arbitration.  Flames only gain time.  Tkachuk still has the upper hand.