Jakob Pelletier - 2019 1st round pick

[travel_dude]

47 minutes ago, cross16 said:

They don't appear to. Across the board Tanev was better with Gio than without. That being said it follows the same path of the team that all of the improvement can at the defensive side of the puck. Small change offensively, but I don't think it's fair to say he suffered. He continued his high level of play and Gio got better as a result. 

 

I can't locate the article, but what I had read was that Tanev's insane fancy stats dropped considerably when he was paired with Gio.

 

[rocketdoctor]

Pelltier is a finalist for QMJHL MVP honours

 

[zima]

SO Pelltier is 20 so is eligible to play AHL correct ? If so then will he go to the A or well they send him back for another season as an over ager to the Val? Since Mr P was traded to Val and they gave up a ton for him well that play a part in his and the teams decision on there next move for him? 

[jjgallow]

14 minutes ago, zima said:

SO Pelltier is 20 so is eligible to play AHL correct ? If so then will he go to the A or well they send him back for another season as an over ager to the Val? Since Mr P was traded to Val and they gave up a ton for him well that play a part in his and the teams decision on there next move for him? 

 

Pelletier is expected to play in the AHL, and at this point that is what will happen unless he has issues in training camp.

[zima]

So Val has just waisted a ton of picks for nothing so unfair. I know not Pells problem but that is so sad for Val to lose so many picks I know that the Covid thing is the reason behind this whole think saying that I hope Pell goes back to the Val for his over age just to make it worth what Val gave up. I also know this is a business and to bad so sad but I do fell for a team who has be flessed couldn't find proper spelling for flessed lol best I could come up with

[kehatch]

The AHL is the best bet, but he is my dark horse to make the Flames. 

[travel_dude]

4 hours ago, zima said:

So Val has just waisted a ton of picks for nothing so unfair. I know not Pells problem but that is so sad for Val to lose so many picks I know that the Covid thing is the reason behind this whole think saying that I hope Pell goes back to the Val for his over age just to make it worth what Val gave up. I also know this is a business and to bad so sad but I do fell for a team who has be flessed couldn't find proper spelling for flessed lol best I could come up with

 

They knew what age he was and the chance of not being there.

They were in win now mode and came close.

 

[zima]

15 hours ago, travel_dude said:

 

They knew what age he was and the chance of not being there.

They were in win now mode and came close.

 

So they only expected a yr out that trade? Wow to me that is so stupid so tell me was Pell a big part of the run?

[travel_dude]

1 hour ago, zima said:

So they only expected a yr out that trade? Wow to me that is so stupid so tell me was Pell a big part of the run?

 

I would imagine that since they brought him on as the captain, they had designs for the team this year.

They were not a contender until the trade.

He was 3rd overal in the Q entry draft, so it was trading for a top player in the leageu.

Why is this important to you?

Junior teams do it all the time.

At some point they lose the player regardless, so it's not like the NHL.

[zima]

To tell the truth more curiosity than anything else and I was very confused as to why a team would give up so much for him just for a yr. I'm happy to hear he helped them make it to the playoffs which means to me he will be a big part in the pro's no matter where he ends up. But at the same time why the heck did he drop so far? sounds like he wasn't worth much to most teams letting him go to the 25th and I guess I can say the same for Zary who most ppl here seem to believe has more up side than Pell? Unless I am reading some comments wrong which is not unusual for me.

[travel_dude]

2 minutes ago, zima said:

To tell the truth more curiosity than anything else and I was very confused as to why a team would give up so much for him just for a yr. I'm happy to hear he helped them make it to the playoffs which means to me he will be a big part in the pro's no matter where he ends up. But at the same time why the heck did he drop so far? sounds like he wasn't worth much to most teams letting him go to the 25th and I guess I can say the same for Zary who most ppl here seem to believe has more up side than Pell? Unless I am reading some comments wrong which is not unusual for me.

 

The drafts were both pretty good for players.

Connor McMichael went 24th, so Pelletier probably even went earlier than he could have. 

 

 

[zima]

19 hours ago, kehatch said:

The AHL is the best bet, but he is my dark horse to make the Flames. 

I do kinda feel he just might be another Mang with a 200 ft game hoping any way when he was drafted I was pretty upset the fact we passed on players I heard were suppose to be much better and we traded down to 26th for extra picks did the same for Zary. I never believe BT when he says they got the player they were hoping for but I guess they have a list and he was what they had at that pick. For what it's worth seems like Connor had better upside way more points last season he played

[jjgallow]

The AHL is 100% what would be best for the player, both in terms of proper development and in terms of minutes and role.

 

The Flames have a positional issue to resolve right now so I don't really see an NHL promotion as making sense even in the absolute best of circumstances, that said even without the positional issue a player like this imho would be best suited to playing a first line role in pro hockey for a year.   That would be a huge win.  A much bigger win than the role he would be given with the Flames.

[travel_dude]

10 hours ago, jjgallow said:

The AHL is 100% what would be best for the player, both in terms of proper development and in terms of minutes and role.

 

The Flames have a positional issue to resolve right now so I don't really see an NHL promotion as making sense even in the absolute best of circumstances, that said even without the positional issue a player like this imho would be best suited to playing a first line role in pro hockey for a year.   That would be a huge win.  A much bigger win than the role he would be given with the Flames.

 

Not arguing with the logic of playing a year in the AHL.

But, if he was paired with Backlund and Dube on a "3rd" line, he could develop much the same way as Mangiapane.

But that would get away from how I think Sutter wants to use players.

Dube-Backlund-Pitlick is probably a more realistic line.

 

[jjgallow]

1 hour ago, travel_dude said:

 

Not arguing with the logic of playing a year in the AHL.

But, if he was paired with Backlund and Dube on a "3rd" line, he could develop much the same way as Mangiapane.

But that would get away from how I think Sutter wants to use players.

Dube-Backlund-Pitlick is probably a more realistic line.

 

 

To develop the same way as Mangiapane, he would need to spend another full year in junior and then another two full years in the AHL (basically), and spend those entire three years getting first line minutes and experience.

 

If we're being completely realistic, while we all wish he would make an immediate NHL impact, that's actually a pretty good path.

[travel_dude]

5 minutes ago, jjgallow said:

 

To develop the same way as Mangiapane, he would need to spend another full year in junior and then another two full years in the AHL (basically), and spend those entire three years getting first line minutes and experience.

 

If we're being completely realistic, while we all wish he would make an immediate NHL impact, that's actually a pretty good path.

 

Mange played 3 season in the OHL to Pelletier's 4 in the Q.

Suggesting that Pelletier needs another 3 years of development to make the NHL isn't a realistic comp.

Mange also played one season before playing 10 games in the NHL.

And that wasn't 10 games at the start of a season as a tryout.

 

Look, all I am saying is that he's the type of player that could make the NHL this season.

Not every two players develop the same way.

Mangiapane only got 10 games in a year where we had players like Brouwer, Stajan, Frolik, Hathaway, Jagr, Versteeg, Lazar, etc. playing most ly full seasons.

Very tough for him to crack the lineup with Gully there doing such a "bangup" job.

 

[kehatch]

1 hour ago, jjgallow said:

 

To develop the same way as Mangiapane, he would need to spend another full year in junior and then another two full years in the AHL (basically), and spend those entire three years getting first line minutes and experience.

 

If we're being completely realistic, while we all wish he would make an immediate NHL impact, that's actually a pretty good path.

 

That isn't the path that Mangiapane took. He spent three seasons in junior and one full season in the AHL. Regardless, Mangiapane is one player. Every player develops differently.

 

Not many go the route you described though, especially first rounders. ELCs are too valuable in a cap system, as are the RFA seasons. 

 

Pelletier is already in his D+2 season. Your suggesting three more seasons of development before he plays. That brings him to his D+5 season. Look at a draft 4 or 5 seasons ago and peer through the players that don't have 100 or 200 NHL games played. Your not going to find too many to get excited about. 

 

I do think it's likely Pelletier will do a year in the AHL. But given his 2019 draft and the type of game he plays I think there is a real chance he makes the team this season.

[jjgallow]

1 hour ago, travel_dude said:

 

Mange played 3 season in the OHL to Pelletier's 4 in the Q.

Suggesting that Pelletier needs another 3 years of development to make the NHL isn't a realistic comp.

Mange also played one season before playing 10 games in the NHL.

And that wasn't 10 games at the start of a season as a tryout.

 

Look, all I am saying is that he's the type of player that could make the NHL this season.

Not every two players develop the same way.

Mangiapane only got 10 games in a year where we had players like Brouwer, Stajan, Frolik, Hathaway, Jagr, Versteeg, Lazar, etc. playing most ly full seasons.

Very tough for him to crack the lineup with Gully there doing such a "bangup" job.

 

 

For sure each player is different, but by age, Mangiapane did play another year.    Mangiapane was a late bloomer that was showing rapid improvement at this age.   Seeing that improvement in Pelletier, regardless of what league, is really what we should all be looking for right now imho.

 

When you think of the Flames development success stories, it is often players that they accidentally forgot to ruin because they weren't on their radar.  Mangiapane.   Gio.   Gaudreau.  Players who the Flames didn't initially take seriously but gave development opportunities to just to see what would happen.

 

Players who Are on their radar, the first rounders, are rarely given actual development opportunities.  They are shoved into the NHL, in garbage roles, and we wait to see whether they injure themselves (Monahan, Beartschi, Bennett) or remain healthy enough to stay in the game.

 

I agree with you that he could crack the NHL.  At least for the first few games.    A team with a good development system would be deciding whether he should be in junior or the AHL though, imho  (and yes, I think they Would side with the AHL in this case)

[jjgallow]

2 minutes ago, kehatch said:

 

That isn't the path that Mangiapane took. He spent three seasons in junior and one full season in the AHL. Regardless, Mangiapane is one player. Every player develops differently.

 

Not many go the route you described though, especially first rounders. ELCs are too valuable in a cap system, as are the RFA seasons. 

 

Pelletier is already in his D+2 season. Your suggesting three more seasons of development before he plays. That brings him to his D+5 season. Look at a draft 4 or 5 seasons ago and peer through the players that don't have 100 or 200 NHL games played. Your not going to find too many to get excited about. 

 

I do think it's likely Pelletier will do a year in the AHL. But given his 2019 draft and the type of game he plays I think there is a real chance he makes the team this season.

 

It is the path, you're forgetting he was an over-ager.

[kehatch]

The over-ager thing doesn't change the total number of years a player spent at each level or the fact that very few NHLer follow the lengthy development path you described. Is there a reason you specifically think Pelletier needs three seasons of pro? Most NHL players, especially first round players, don't spend that kind of time in the AHL. 

 

I also think you need to readjust your take that the Flames are a poor development and drafting team. It used to be true, but today 50% of the roster is made up of players drafted by the team, with most of the top spots filled by them. They range from the top 6 to round 6, with various paths to the NHL, and they cover just about every position. 

 

That is inline or ahead of all of the top teams in the NHL. We may not have quite as high of caliber of players as some of the top teams, but that is more to do with our lack of top 3 picks then anything else. It's even ahead of most teams that are fresh our of a rebuild. 

 

I know this is the hill your likely to die on, but are you sure your not adjusting the facts to fit your narrative? Every team has a high percentage of prospects that don't turn out. It's easy to point to one or two, or open up a draft magazine and point out the Flames didn't draft the guy you had circled.

 

But in terms of successfully getting drafted players into impact positions in the NHL, the Flames are hitting better then most. 

[jjgallow]

49 minutes ago, kehatch said:

The over-ager thing doesn't change the total number of years a player spent at each level or the fact that very few NHLer follow the lengthy development path you described. Is there a reason you specifically think Pelletier needs three seasons of pro? Most NHL players, especially first round players, don't spend that kind of time in the AHL. 

 

okay here we go lol.   

 

Take the time to read what I wrote, and you will see that I never said Pelletier will need three AHL seasons.

 

That would be insane.

 

You know what else is insane?    Hoping he gets zero AHL seasons.  

 

49 minutes ago, kehatch said:

I also think you need to readjust your take that the Flames are a poor development and drafting team. It used to be true, but today 50% of the roster is made up of players drafted by the team, with most of the top spots filled by them. They range from the top 6 to round 6, with various paths to the NHL, and they cover just about every position. 

 

Simply put, if that were true we wouldn't be picking 12th overall.   This is obviously a multi-faceted debate that has a life of its own.   Maybe not suitable for the Pelletier thread.    But I don't agree and I think the majority of fans are actually concerned right now, with good reason.   I have a unique opinion on many things, on this I think I'm in the majority at this point.

 

49 minutes ago, kehatch said:

 

That is inline or ahead of all of the top teams in the NHL. We may not have quite as high of caliber of players as some of the top teams, but that is more to do with our lack of top 3 picks then anything else. It's even ahead of most teams that are fresh our of a rebuild. 

 

I know this is the hill your likely to die on, but are you sure your not adjusting the facts to fit your narrative? Every team has a high percentage of prospects that don't turn out. It's easy to point to one or two, or open up a draft magazine and point out the Flames didn't draft the guy you had circled.

 

I am 100000% sure I am not adjusting facts to my narrative.  I want the Flames to do well.   The rebuild has already started and I would argue any team picking 12 or higher is basically at some stage of rebuild.   It's happening, and we're going to be picking higher.

 

Here's the only thing I think is worth debating at this point:   When we come out of it.     IMHO, we are here because we came out of our last rebuild a little too soon.

 

49 minutes ago, kehatch said:

 

But in terms of successfully getting drafted players into impact positions in the NHL, the Flames are hitting better then most. 

 

They are average in this area (developing players to NHL level).   Not the best and not the worst.

 

When it comes to developing core players, they are well below replacement rate.   Again they aren't the worst, I admit.  But it is below average.

[kehatch]

I am not trying to be a dick. I am very comfortable with alternate views. I guess what I am asking is for a bit of evidence to back up what you are saying. The Flames are a average at general development, but well below average at developing core player? Great, you said it. Now say something to show it. 

 

I don't see that. 

 

The Flames starting roster will have 4 top 6 and 2 middle 6 forwards drafted and developed, that is 66% of the top 9. 50% of the D will have been drafted by the Flames. That's more then Tampa, Washington, Boston, and on par or ahead of every team that I have looked at. Based on the players on the roster, I think the Flames have been well above average in this area. 

 

You mentioned core player development as a concern. I know we like to hate on some of our players, but compare them to their draft classes. Monahan is third in points. Gaudreau is fifth. Tkachuk is second. Backlund is thirteenth, and there aren't many above him I would want in his place. Monahan and Tkachuk are high picks, but not lottery picks. Everyone on that list has outplayed the majority of players drafted ahead of them. Those players have been asked to take on the role of a McKinnon etc, but that isn't fair Imo. 

 

I appreciate the Flames aren't next in line for a cup. I would suggest that has more with pick selection and being a smaller market team then anything else. The inability of the GM to fill vital positions, the cap investment in the bottom 6,and the poor coaching choices certainly contribute. But I think the drafting and development has been a positive thing in Treliving tenure. And I think the player results speak to that. 

[jjgallow]

15 minutes ago, kehatch said:

I am not trying to be a dick. I am very comfortable with alternate views. I guess what I am asking is for a bit of evidence to back up what you are saying. The Flames are a average at general development, but well below average at developing core player? Great, you said it. Now say something to show it. 

 

I don't see that. 

 

The Flames starting roster will have 4 top 6 and 2 middle 6 forwards drafted and developed, that is 66% of the top 9. 50% of the D will have been drafted by the Flames. That's more then Tampa, Washington, Boston, and on par or ahead of every team that I have looked at. Based on the players on the roster, I think the Flames have been well above average in this area. 

 

You mentioned core player development as a concern. I know we like to hate on some of our players, but compare them to their draft classes. Monahan is third in points. Gaudreau is fifth. Tkachuk is second. Backlund is thirteenth, and there aren't many above him I would want in his place. Monahan and Tkachuk are high picks, but not lottery picks. Everyone on that list has outplayed the majority of players drafted ahead of them. Those players have been asked to take on the role of a McKinnon etc, but that isn't fair Imo. 

 

I appreciate the Flames aren't next in line for a cup. I would suggest that has more with pick selection and being a smaller market team then anything else. The inability of the GM to fill vital positions, the cap investment in the bottom 6,and the poor coaching choices certainly contribute. But I think the drafting and development has been a positive thing in Treliving tenure. And I think the player results speak to that. 

 

We kind of went down this road recently in the....Ryan Francis thread.  lol.

 

 

 

Not that either thread is more appropriate a home for it but there it is.   

 

Essentially if you take away the high first round picks, which you shouldn't have to rely on, the Flames have:

Gaudreau.

 

That's it.  In terms of core players, imho.   And he developed in US College.   But I'm not looking to go down a Pelletier bashing road if possible on this thread.

[travel_dude]

7 hours ago, jjgallow said:

 

To develop the same way as Mangiapane, he would need to spend another full year in junior and then another two full years in the AHL (basically), and spend those entire three years getting first line minutes and experience.

 

If we're being completely realistic, while we all wish he would make an immediate NHL impact, that's actually a pretty good path.

 

I don't follow.

On one hand you suggest that Pelletier needs 3 years to develop like Mangiapane.

That it's a good p;an.

Then you say that not every player is the same.

Then you say that you don't think Pelletier needs 3 years to develop.

 

If we are looking to be positive, then Pelletier could come into the NHL as late as next season and as early as this season.

It's not the same thing as Bennett being injured for most of his draft year and then starting immediately after the OHL season.

This is a player with somewhat less talent than a top 5 drafted player who has had 2 years extra in the Q and will have some time in the AHL.

Or they are just that good enough to make an immediate impact.

It took Gaudreau all of 6 games to prove it.

Different level player, but also difficult to base Q against NCAA.

Knight versus Wolf.

Yeah, I said it.

[jjgallow]

17 minutes ago, travel_dude said:

 

I don't follow.

On one hand you suggest that Pelletier needs 3 years to develop like Mangiapane.

That it's a good p;an.

Then you say that not every player is the same.

Then you say that you don't think Pelletier needs 3 years to develop.

 

You are describing what I said because if you quoted it, it wouldn't match your description (or come close to it).

 

Pelletier is far enough along that 1-2 years of AHL seems perfectly reasonable, even potentially 1 year.   0 years, to me, does not seem reasonable if the goal is to develop the player.

 

17 minutes ago, travel_dude said:

 

If we are looking to be positive, then Pelletier could come into the NHL as late as next season and as early as this season.

 

I would see coming in this early season as quite negative as he would almost without a doubt become a role player if he didn't get injured.  I mean, the Flames literally define LW.

 

17 minutes ago, travel_dude said:

It's not the same thing as Bennett being injured for most of his draft year and then starting immediately after the OHL season.

This is a player with somewhat less talent than a top 5 drafted player who has had 2 years extra in the Q and will have some time in the AHL.

Or they are just that good enough to make an immediate impact.

It took Gaudreau all of 6 games to prove it.

 

Bennett is an example of why you don't rush players.  Especially after an injury like that he needed first line minutes in the AHL.  He didn't need to become a crash bang guy on the 4th line up here.

Gaudreau is another example of why you don't rush players.   He got loads of experience in US College lol, he didn't get "6 games"

 

17 minutes ago, travel_dude said:

Different level player, but also difficult to base Q against NCAA.

Knight versus Wolf.

Yeah, I said it.

 

lol...too early, I can't comment.  We'll see soon enough