So Where do we go from here? Analysis & Predictions

[cccsberg]

So we've come to the end of another season, out of the playoffs prior to the Draft Lottery and obviously in need of more.  What went wrong?  What tangible things need to be done?  Where will we be on July 15th, mid-Summer 2017?

[JTech780]

To me the glaring hole on this team, and it showed in 3 of the 4 games against Anaheim is goaltending. I don't think either goaltender will be back. I am not sure who they look too. Bishop, Darling, Howard, Grubauer, Mrazek, Fleury. That's the short list of goalies.

 

I think Stone impressed enough that Treliving will try hard to bring him back.

 

I think Versteeg showed enough skill and leadership to warrant bringing him back.

 

I don't think we need drastic changes, I think the coach has the team playing with an identity and playing at a very high level. All the young core will learn a lot from this playoff experience.

 

Outside of goaltending I think this team just needs a little tweaking, and we might have some the answers in house.

[MAC331]

13 minutes ago, cccsberg said:

So we've come to the end of another season, out of the playoffs prior to the Draft Lottery and obviously in need of more.  What went wrong?  What tangible things need to be done?  Where will we be on July 15th, mid-Summer 2017?

I would say the team had a very progressive season and gain some much needed experience. Unfortunately this season will be remembered as the season of the soft goal and will kick off the need for better goaltending once again. Oddly it was the play of both CJ early and Elliott later that made it even possible for this team to make it into the playoffs. Management will have some serious decisions to make this offseason.

1. Address the goaltending situation.

2. Address the bottom 4 defensemen after Giordano, Hamilton and Brodie

3. Address the forward group you want back and have a good game plan come the Draft and Expansion Draft.

[phoenix66]

Jtech is right , no overhauls required , just some tweaks in a couple areas.. you put a proven Elite #1 goalie back there , I wouldn't be upset if we iced the team that finished the season, ..but in a perfect world  ..

 

Re- sign:

Stone

Versteeg

Bennett

Johnson

Ferland

Gillies 

Lazar

 

Aquire:

Bishop or Fleury

 

Ok to Re-sign(at the right price), unless an upgrade can be acquired 

Engelland

Bartkowski

Chiasson

 

Move:

Stajan

Bouma

Brouwer

Best chances of being on the team next Year :(dependant on how the above situations shake out )

Jankowski

Culkin

Hathaway

Gillies

[cccsberg]

The Flames could not compete with Anaheim's toughness, speed nor their top players.  Perry, Kesler, Gibson, overall D, role players (e.g. Silfverberg) and Getzlaf were clearly better than the comparable Flames.  Although some of that is inexperience on the part of the Flames, some of that is they are just better.  I think we can get better in all those areas as Monahan, Tkachuk, Bennett, Gillies/? and Anderson/Kulak/etc mature and get better while the Ducks are pretty much at their peak and declining soon.

 

Immediate changes that need to be made prior to our 2017-18 mid-Summer look include the following:

 

UFA: Versteeg(re-sign), Wideman(drop), Engelland(drop), Stone(re-sign), Elliot(drop), Johnson(drop), Smid(drop), Bollig(drop), Kostka(drop)

 

RFA: Bennett(re-sign), Lazar(re-sign), Ferland(re-sign), Chiasson(release), Gillies(re-sign), Rittich(re-sign), Morrison(re-sign), Vey(release), Hathaway(re-sign), Culkin(release), Kulak(re-sign), Wotherspoon(release)

 

Expansion Draft: Protect 1G=?Bishop-3D=Giordano, DHamilton, TJBrodie-7F=Gaudreau, Monahan, Ferland, Backlund, Frolik, Bennett, Lazar; Expose 1G=-McCollum-1D=Bartkowski-2F=Brouwer, Stajan, Bouma

 

Trades post-Expansion Draft(Any reasonable offer/picks): Brouwer, Stajan, Bouma, Bartkowski, McCollum

Trades Anytime: FHamilton, Poirier, Pollock, Smith, Carroll, McDonald, Kanzig

 

Mega-Trade Consideration(Return in-Kind(e.g. Nieuwendyk-Iginla)): potentially any of Gaudreau, Backlund, Bennett, Giordano and Brodie to change the mix on the team.  Probably max of one of these, if any.

 

UFA Signings: BenBishop-G(4yrs,$6mm), TJOshie-RW(5yrs,$5.5-$6.5mm), MStone-D(4yrs,$4mm), KVersteeg-LW,RW(4yrs,$3.5mm)

[MAC331]

22 minutes ago, JTech780 said:

To me the glaring hole on this team, and it showed in 3 of the 4 games against Anaheim is goaltending. I don't think either goaltender will be back. I am not sure who they look too. Bishop, Darling, Howard, Grubauer, Mrazek, Fleury. That's the short list of goalies.

 

I think Stone impressed enough that Treliving will try hard to bring him back.

 

I think Versteeg showed enough skill and leadership to warrant bringing him back.

 

I don't think we need drastic changes, I think the coach has the team playing with an identity and playing at a very high level. All the young core will learn a lot from this playoff experience.

 

Outside of goaltending I think this team just needs a little tweaking, and we might have some the answers in house.

How about one drastic change like trading Gaudreau to CAR for Brett Pesce and their #1 draft pick this year ?

There is a solid slate of goaltenders available this offseason, it will depend on how much BT wants to spend on the position.

I actually hope they don't bring back Versteeg or Chiasson and Brouwer gets taken by LV.

I also hope BT can find a way to unload Stajan and Bouma.

[phoenix66]

10 minutes ago, MAC331 said:

How about one drastic change like trading Gaudreau to CAR for Brett Pesce and their #1 draft pick this year ?

There is a solid slate of goaltenders available this offseason, it will depend on how much BT wants to spend on the position.

I actually hope they don't bring back Versteeg or Chiasson and Brouwer gets taken by LV.

I also hope BT can find a way to unload Stajan and Bouma.

ya know , this was actually crossing my mind the last few days ..just in general the thought of trading Johnny. You could get a major haul.  It's only been 2 attempts but its starting to become clear the playoffs he can be too easily shut down. If you replace him with a legitimate top line winger and picks /prospects you could sell the trade and temper the backlash that will happen.

eg: we could legitimately go shopping for a Backstrom , Drouin, Hall etc..

 - his often talked about attitude issues aside, can you imagine the BOA if Hall was suddenly in Red ???? 6-7 shots a year to feed a giant chip on his shoulder ?

Maybe he just had a rough time with the whole contract thing , but he seemed genuinely disinterested this season..rarely did he have that Johnny -like smile and excitement.. he may never say it , and I'm sure he genuinely likes it here , but I think he'd rather be out East

[cross16]

Agree with the idea of tweaking. Flames were definitely short a few assets against Anaheim, although I disagree that toughness had anything to do with it, so you do need to add a few pieces but nothing overly glaring.

 

I haven't done enough research to be able to name names in terms of who to go after but the general thoughts I thought have.

 

Re sign Stone if the price is under 4 mill and 4 years or less

Re sign Versteeg to another 1 year deal but not more

If Engelland is willing to do a 1 year deal at less than 2 mill that should be considered. I'd prefer to get more mobile in his spot but you cannot lose that toughness IMO. If you can get a 3rd pairing dman who is ideally a RH shot and bring the same toughness but all means but that's a thin market. 

If the can get a similar deal with Chad Johnson I would do that. 1-2 years at less than 2 million.

 

Outside of the obvious need in goal I think the Flames need some more goals. We can talk about goaltending, bounces, discipline, etc, but let's not lose sight of the fact that 5 on 5 this team scored 2 goals in the series. Their PP carried them too much during the regular season and playoffs so they need to find more 5 on 5 scoring. Part of that can be solved with maturation, both in terms of player and within the system, of the young guys on the team but I think acquiring a veteran presence that is good for 25 or more goals a year would really help take the pressure off of the young core. Oshie and Patrick Marleau (skeptical he is leaving SJ and skeptical he's the right guy anyway) are really the only fits in FA so this may have to come via trade. Again, I have no names to target but I that is the profile I think could really help this team get to the next level. 

 

so really only the 2 external needs (assuming Stone re-signs). Maybe 3 if you want to move on from Engelland. I think between guys like Lazar, Klimchuk, Jankowski etc you are to the point where you will have farm guys pushing for jobs too and creating a lot of depth. 

 

From a cap perspective they are in good shape but would be great if they could shed a bit. I'd personally buy out Bouma. It's not a horrendous buyout and I just can't tolerate watching him play anymore. Maybe they get lucky and Vegas takes someone like Stajan and they make room for the likes of Lazar. 

[cccsberg]

32 minutes ago, MAC331 said:

How about one drastic change like trading Gaudreau to CAR for Brett Pesce and their #1 draft pick this year ?

There is a solid slate of goaltenders available this offseason, it will depend on how much BT wants to spend on the position.

I actually hope they don't bring back Versteeg or Chiasson and Brouwer gets taken by LV.

I also hope BT can find a way to unload Stajan and Bouma.

Don't really know Brett Pesce so its hard to comment(hey, maybe he's the next Pronger?), but this kind of trade, a la Edmonton Oilers' Hall trade is giving up a huge piece of the offence for a D when D is a relative strength of the Flames, especially with multiple new guys on the cusp in the next year or two.  That would include Kulak/Culkin, Andersson, Kylington and Hickey, much less Morrison, Fox, Falkowski, Ollas-Matsson and others further down.  

 

I don't mind considering trading Gaudreau but probably for a grittier/tougher/larger scoring machine, like a Vorachek, Giroux or Simmonds off of Philadelphia.  We'd give up on age on all those deals but get an arguably better-rounded player suited to playoffs.  We've got some other small phenoms coming up e.g. Mangiapanne and Phillips so we might be able to replace Gaudreau's production in a year or two plus add whomever we got in a potential trade.  Trading younger would also work, might even be better, but I'd have to think on who that might be....

[phoenix66]

10 minutes ago, cross16 said:

 

Re sign Stone if the price is under 4 mill and 4 years or less

 

agree with all except this, he already makes 4.. dont see him taking a pay cut in UFA.. it was 1 yr deal though, you might stay at that if its longer term 

[CastleMania]

Gaudreau was awful this season in general. I really felt like he under produced and was a liability as much as he was a threat. I don't know what you do with him, but if he has another season like this one I think you look to move him.

[cross16]

Gaudreau for Pesce would be a horrible trade for the Flames. I get it, Gaudreau was terrible in the playoffs but you don't trade a top line player for a decent but not great top 4 blueliner. I don't think Pesce will ever be a top line blueliner and the Flames could not replace the scoring they will lose without Gaudreau.

 

I'm all for discussing the possibility of moving Gaudreau but it would have to be for another scorer, not a dman. I don't think the Flames can afford to lose that offence both in the short and long term. 

[JTech780]

The one thing that needs to be addressed before any of the on ice personnel is what they are doing with Treliving. I think Treliving deserves to be back 100%.

I get worried that Burke is looking at a guy like Dean Lombardi who is available and builds teams similar to the way Burke does. Lombardi did build a Stanley Cup winner, but he wasn't able to adjust to the way NHL has trended the last few years and he also gave out some horrendous contracts. I just don't see Burke as a patient guy and he might want to change the direction of this team.

 

As far as trading Gaudreau, I get the idea and in some ways it makes sense, but Gaudreau controls so much of our offense and guys like Monahan rely on Gaudreau to create opportunities for him, I wonder where that offense and creativity is going to come from.

[travel_dude]

I think we have some holes due to end of contracts, and some prospects that could be ready.

Have 3D.

Need 4D.

Have Ferland and Tkachuk as possible 1st line RW, though they might be better used with Bennett.  If that's the case, top line RW.

Need an upgrade to Bouma.  

Need to figure out the goalie situation; can be addressed by trade prior to expansion draft or re-signing one guy to a 1b or backup role.  

Need to know where Lazar fits.

Can Janko, Klimchuk, Shink or Mangiapane make the team out of camp?

How about Ollas-Mattson, Healey, Kylington, Andersson, and Kulak?

 

My opinion of the top line is that they need a guy to compliment JH and Monahan.  Mony has the hands, but doesn't always get the space.  No other options except a LHS on the RW with Ferland.  While that works, it's not ideal.  He has the shot, but still is better coming up the LW. 

[CastleMania]

Just now, cross16 said:

Gaudreau for Pesce would be a horrible trade for the Flames. I get it, Gaudreau was terrible in the playoffs but you don't trade a top line player for a decent but not great top 4 blueliner. I don't think Pesce will ever be a top line blueliner and the Flames could not replace the scoring they will lose without Gaudreau.

 

I'm all for discussing the possibility of moving Gaudreau but it would have to be for another scorer, not a dman. I don't think the Flames can afford to lose that offence both in the short and long term. 

Just so we're clear, that wasn't my suggestion (I don't think you're implying it was, but given the proximity of the response I want to clarify).

[cross16]

11 minutes ago, phoenix66 said:

agree with all except this, he already makes 4.. dont see him taking a pay cut in UFA.. it was 1 yr deal though, you might stay at that if its longer term 

 

He made 4 because he had arbitration rights and was coming off a 36 point season. He's now coming off a 15 point season...

 

That 36 point season sees to be the outlier so assigning his pay to that is not a smart way to go about business. 

[phoenix66]

1 minute ago, CastleMania said:

Gaudreau was awful this season in general. I really felt like he under produced and was a liability as much as he was a threat. I don't know what you do with him, but if he has another season like this one I think you look to move him.

i think if you move him , you do it now . Every bad season his stock drops. With his whole disinterested untypical demeanor this year , it actually wouldn't surprise me if that was the way they got the deal done finally . BT made a trip just before the signing ,  I'd be not suprised at all if the conversation included "look.. sign the deal, play the season and I promise I'll try and move you to the East next offseason"

Rumors always fly and a lot of it made up , but there were rumblings he'd rather play out east ..he's a pro, and a quality guy.. he'd never be public about it or admit it .. but his body language this year was very suspicious 

[CastleMania]

1 minute ago, JTech780 said:

As far as trading Gaudreau, I get the idea and in some ways it makes sense, but Gaudreau controls so much of our offense and guys like Monahan rely on Gaudreau to create opportunities for him, I wonder where that offense and creativity is going to come from.

Something needs to change with Gaudreau. I hope this season was just a slump but he's not playing up to his own standards.

[phoenix66]

1 minute ago, cross16 said:

 

He made 4 because he had arbitration rights and was coming off a 36 point season. He's not coming off a 15 point season...

 

That 36 point season sees to be the outlier so assigning his pay to that is not a smart way to go about business. 

ahh ok that makes more sense . thanks for clarifying 

[CastleMania]

1 minute ago, phoenix66 said:

i think if you move him , you do it now . Every bad season his stock drops. With his whole disinterested untypical demeanor this year , it actually wouldn't surprise me if that was the way they got the deal done finally . BT made a trip just before the signing ,  I'd be not suprised at all if the conversation included "look.. sign the deal, play the season and I promise I'll try and move you to the East next offseason"

Rumors always fly and a lot of it made up , but there were rumblings he'd rather play out east ..he's a pro, and a quality guy.. he'd never be public about it or admit it .. but his body language this year was very suspicious 

I've heard rumors, but I don't like spreading them.

 

That being said, his game and general disinterest were very apparent.

[cross16]

2 minutes ago, JTech780 said:

The one thing that needs to be addressed before any of the on ice personnel is what they are doing with Treliving. I think Treliving deserves to be back 100%.

I get worried that Burke is looking at a guy like Dean Lombardi who is available and builds teams similar to the way Burke does. Lombardi did build a Stanley Cup winner, but he wasn't able to adjust to the way NHL has trended the last few years and he also gave out some horrendous contracts. I just don't see Burke as a patient guy and he might want to change the direction of this team.

 

 

At every turn this season Burke publicly went to bat for Treliving and when the stores really heated up that the Flames may not re sign him, he came out publically to back him and say its their policy not to extend a deal until the off season.

 

Burke is generally a pretty honest guy to the media so if he goes to bat for you that hard I dont' think he is looking to move on from you behind the scenes. But I agree 100% you bring back Treliving. I expect they will but will be livid if they don't

[JTech780]

If we are going to trade Gaudreau I think has to be something like Gaudreau for Galchenyuk+. Galchenyuk doesn't seem happy in Montreal and might need a change in scenery and he loaded with size, skill and speed. Montreal loves their small skilled guys and Gaudreau would be closer to home.

[JTech780]

1 minute ago, cross16 said:

 

At every turn this season Burke publicly went to bat for Treliving and when the stores really heated up that the Flames may not re sign him, he came out publically to back him and say its their policy not to extend a deal until the off season.

 

Burke is generally a pretty honest guy to the media so if he goes to bat for you that hard I dont' think he is looking to move on from you behind the scenes. But I agree 100% you bring back Treliving. I expect they will but will be livid if they don't

 

Yeah and Burke has shown to be pretty loyal to his guys in the past. That being said the contract situation has to be taken care of pretty soon, with the two drafts in the near future you don't want any uncertainty.

[phoenix66]

1 minute ago, cross16 said:

 

At every turn this season Burke publicly went to bat for Treliving and when the stores really heated up that the Flames may not re sign him, he came out publically to back him and say its their policy not to extend a deal until the off season.

 

Burke is generally a pretty honest guy to the media so if he goes to bat for you that hard I dont' think he is looking to move on from you behind the scenes. But I agree 100% you bring back Treliving. I expect they will but will be livid if they don't

agree totally .. a GM change typically means you just set your plan back a few years..BT's team, BTs coach, is finally coming into view .. you don't go off the rails now , especially when its going well.  Only wild card that kind of worries me is after Buffalo cleaning house this morning , now you have an owner willing to spend money ..we may end up with a Bidding war .. but I think the only way BT doesnt come back is if we don't want him.,and i don't see that . I look for Lombardi and Sutter to land in Buffalo together

[The_People1]

If I move Gaudreau, then it would be for Carey Price.