Sven Baertschi

[JTech780]

Where will Baertschi end up?

 

I am not sure that Baertschi has much of a future in Calgary, I think he can be a solid NHLer, but I don't see it happening in Calgary. I think he will be traded at the draft.

[jjgallow]

I see him as an 80+ point player in his peak years.

 

I put him down for 80+ for this year as well, which is crazy, nutty, wishful thinking with little reason behind it.  But I felt the urge.

[DirtyDeeds]

45 points this coming year if he stays healthy for pretty much the full year.

[swtrooper]

Im hoping for the 45-60pts this year. As far as his peak, he better hit 80+ or I wouldnt consider him a franchise player. I do think he will easily do that if he s handled the right way.

[jjgallow]

I agree.  I think his peak years is a worthwhile discussion/debate.

 

This year isn't really.....I was being silly with my 80+ prediction but hey, you never know.

 

I think he has what it takes to be extremely effective in this league.   He will get opportunity given the Flames current roster.   He may have to wait for the likes of Monahan, Gaudreau, and others to finish their development before he has the players around him he needs to reach his peak.   But for a player his age, he is something exceptional.

 

So far in the NHL, he has paced himself for a 20-goal, 42-point season (if he plays 82 games, based on past NHL production.

 

That's with very limited ice time, as well as a long stretch earlier in the year where he was in a considerable slump and may have been injured.

 

He's bigger this year, he's better this year, he's healthier, and the Flames have far more minutes and opportunity for him.

 

25 goals and 60 points would be a realistic expectation.   I voted for 80+, lol.  Not sure why.

 

 

But more importantly, what kind of player averages for a 20-goal, 42-point season at the age of 20???

 

In his draft year?   Not RNH (although RNH probably will do this if he stays healthy).

 

Just Huberdeau, Andrew Shaw, and Brandon Saad (nice draft picks, Chicago).

 

There are 90 first-line positions in the NHL, with a career as a first-line player being generously 8 years.   

 

That means we can expect 11 first-liners out of every draft year.

 

If that is the case for 2011, Baertschi is Definitely, DEFINITELY one of them.   And one of the better ones.

 

He is, quite simply, the best left-winger of the 2011 draft so far.

 

So far, he is more productive than RNH.

 

A first-line 80+ point player...yes.  I think it's a realistic projection if he proves to stay healthy.

[Zirakzigil]

50 points and Calder this year. I expect him to be a PPG player once he hits his peak.

[cross16]

40ish points this year and the a 70 ish point player at his peak, just shy of a PPG. Sven reminds me of Hossa since he joined the Hawks. Not persee a dynamic offensive guy but a smart, solid all around player who is not going to have a weakness in any zone or area of the ice.

[jjgallow]

Hossa is an interesting comparison, but not just since they joined the Hawks.

 

Both started out with the Portland Winterhawks.  Both were good in their draft year, Hossa being exceptional.

 

Both stayed another year with the Winterhawks.  Baertschi was highly exceptional in his second year.

 

Both graduated to the NHL the year after that.  Both averaged one point every two games, both paced for roughly 20 goals per year.

 

Both had injury troubles during those years.

 

 

So.....following along that Path, Hossa got 56 points and 29 goals in what would be this year.

 

And, for the most part, the rest of his career was a healthy one.

 

And at his peak, 100 points.

[JTech780]

I am really surprised by how many 80+ votes there have been so far.

 

To me 80+ points in a season puts you amongst the elite of the elite in the NHL. In 2011-2012 there was all of 9 players to top the 80 point plateau. 

 

I like Baertschi and really hope he develops in to a player that will help Calgary win, I just don't see him as an elite player. He's very skilled, I just see him being closer to Jiri Hudler than I do to Hossa. Hossa is known as being one of the strongest players physically in the NHL, Baertschi will never have that same distinction. Hossa is a relentless backchecker as well, that is an aspect that Baertschi will have to work on.

[Flyerfan52]

I am just curious as to where everyone sees Baertschi this upcoming season and in his prime. 

 

I think he will put up aroung 30-45 points this year and will be around 45-60 point player in throughout his career. I think he will be a solid 2nd line player. 

Pretty much my thinking.

 

I see him being a solid player but 80+ would make him a franchise player.

[jjgallow]

Yes, I think we are all aware that being an 80+ point player makes you elite.   If ou compare Baertschi to other players when they were 20 years old, you will find that his production, so far, is in fact elite.  For his age.   Ahead of a lot of them, actually.  For pretense, I'm not saying I'm right.  Just to get that out of the way.

 

I do actually agree with you that Baertschi is not Hossa.   But he's not 5'9 Hudler either.  At All.   Baertschi's physical and hockey development is way ahead of Hudler's.  At this point in Hudler's career, he had 12 NHL games, 1 goal, and 3 points.  Baertschi's pace much more closely resemble's Hossa's, not Hudler's.  And his physical play is definitely inbetween them, but closer to Hoss's than Hudler.

 

 And Baertschi is a tough customer...which is what's got him into trouble with health issues.  I would consider Baertschi Very tough for his age.  Maybe not Hossa tough.   But absolutley not Hudler.  Baertschi at 20 is already tougher than Hudler ever will be.  Of the three, imho, Baertschi is slightly more skilled than Hossa.  Open to debate, obviously.

 

I guess the question is....was Hossa one of the strongest physical players in the NHL when he was 20 years old?  Or right now, actually?  I think you would find them to be very similar in physicality at that age, with Hossa having a slight advantage being 6'2 out of junior.  However, in junior, Baertschi racked up more penalty minutes per game than Hossa did.   As Baertschi grows into his frame, I think we may see the same in the NHL.

 

In Hossa's first NHL season, he missed the first 22 games due to an injury suffered in junior.  Sounds a little familiar, doesn't it?

 

Both physical players, imho.

 

I don't have a good comparison to Baertschi.  Players like him are rare.

 

p.s....there may always be an Iggy comparison too.  Which we all know is bogus.   But, for the record, Baertschi's pace is literally the same as Iggy's pace when Iggy was 20.  In order for Baertschi to surpass Iggy this year, age for age, he need to beat 13 goals and 32 points in 70 games.   Quit honestly, if he's healthy, he could double that.  

 

I would not be "dissapointed" in Baertschi if he doesn't become an elite player, but he is on perfect pace.  And to Be on pace with Iggy, considering the strength of Iggy when he came into the league (look out Hossa)...speaks volumes.

[JTech780]

25 NHL games is not near enough of a sample size to predict what kind of production he is going to have.

 

I more than willing to admit I could be wrong and actually hope that I am wrong, if Baertschi turns into an elite player that will help Calgary turn around this rebuild that much quicker. I am just not sure that he will be an elite player.

[travel_dude]

If Baertschi plays 2nd line with some decent finishers, I think he gets about 0.7 PPG, putting him around 56 points.

Most of those will be assists, and a lot of them on the PP.  He will get about 18-20 goals in total.

[jjgallow]

25 NHL games is not near enough of a sample size to predict what kind of production he is going to have.

 

I think that was an assumption most realized before voting, and one that applies to both high and low predictions.

[403Loyalty]

Just for the record JTech, i think you are being rather hard on Baer and your expectations.. maybe your just trying to save yourself from any heartbreak lol but dont worry barring injuries I think Sven is going to impress a lot of people.

 

First off Baer is going to be on the reciving end of some high quality talent coming up due to us being at the bottom currently. His point production in the future will only grow as the chemistry with his line mates does as well. (its actually quite nice to potentially see either our #1 or #2 line develop under our roof.)

 

Now 25 NHL games makes it pretty tough to give an in depth evaluation of the player. But having been able to see a bunch of Abby's games and some of Portlands, im telling you guys this kid is the real deal, he gets the game and where he needs to be successful. He knows he has to get to those tough areas and he understands he needs some size and creativity to not only protect the puck but dish it, and lets not forget his shot, acurate and hard.

 

Some of our most creative give and go's last year where produced by Hudler and Baertschi. But the only thing Sven is missing is size and experiance. Both of which will come in time and i'm sure he understands he needs to be stronger every year he comes into camp.

[The_People1]

I voted 45-60 this coming season.  I think he can do it all by himself but it's difficult to imagine he'll get more than 60 because you really need good linemates to get into the 65-ish mark.  The Flames don't have high end talent for him to play with.  Give it another 3 to 4 years when other Flames prospects start to arrive.  Then, i think Baertschi can be a 60-80 point player.

[JTech780]

I will admit that he has shown glimpses but it is really hard to get a read on him, 9 of his 13 career points so far have come in a 7 game stretch to finish last season, so in his other 18 games he has put up 4 points. So was he just on a hot streak and the 1 point in the previous 13 games last year close to the norm. I think he will produce better than that but so far he has been really streaky, and hopefully that's just age and inexperience. 

 

I just haven't seen enough for me to say that he's going to be amongst the Patrick Kane's or the Phil Kessel's of the NHL. As of right now I am more willing to say he will be closer to the Jiri Hudler's and David Perron's of the NHL.

[jjgallow]

 So was he just on a hot streak

 

You can just as easily argue that he had a stretch where he was in a slump, and possibly playing injured as well.

 

When evaluating young talent, I tend to place more value on the streaks than the slumps.  Iggy doesn't start scoring until the final 40 games either, and never has.  

 

Any player can be in a slump, but the number of players even capable of a 7-game point streak is very limited.

 

At the end of the day, if you look at his overal WHL, AHL, and NHL numbers and performance, you see a common theme.

[geos]

I think Baertschi has a ceiling around 70 points, which is solid for a 13th overall. However, I still have very big concerns about his awareness on the ice. He's ok in the offensive zone and can clearly put himself in the right position to score. My issue is his neutral zone transitions. He leaves himself vulnerable to big, dangerous hits with lazy play. Alot. All the time.

 

I've said it before. A couple of his injuries were 100% due to carelessness. When the Russian player decked him in the World Juniors, that was a preventable injury for a player that had his head in the game. The NHL is much more vicious. He really needs to wake up if he wants any longevity in this league or be able to play more than 70 games in a season.

 

Yes, players shouldn't head hunt. But there is an element of responsibility for yourself too and hopefully Baertschi can work on this before he takes too many more shots to the noggin.

[jjgallow]

I agree with the concern over his awareness (from a self-protective risk management perspective).

 

I don't see the 70 point ceiling, and I don't think he actually has a self-awareness problem.  He demonstrates his self awareness very well by some of his give and go's.

 

I think he just has risk-management issues.   Which is semantics, really.  I'm just trying to clarify that he does actually have excellent vision.   Unbelievable vision.  He just hasn't utilized it well to protect himself.

 

This is very common with teenaged players.   The average mortal doesn't fully understand safety until their mid-20's.   True story, with research to back it up.   In Baertschi's case, I thought he was "safer" in training camp than usual, and I see this as a good sign.  He still did take some hits, but did not sustain any hip or head injuries.

 

Anyway, the tools are there.   The maturity to play without injury has not been yet, but I think we will see a big change this year.

 

I think we will see an incredible player for the first 40 games.  If he makes it that far without injury, I think you'll see him put it into a whole other gear for the last 40 games.  Because, he is, For Sure, holding back.  Unsure after the concussions.  Still good enough to meet the 40-50 point targets posted on here.   But if he figures it all out, I don't see any ceilings.

 

fingers crossed.

[s4xon]

I agree with the concern over his awareness (from a self-protective risk management perspective).

 

I don't see the 70 point ceiling, and I don't think he actually has a self-awareness problem.  He demonstrates his self awareness very well by some of his give and go's.

 

I think he just has risk-management issues.   Which is semantics, really.  I'm just trying to clarify that he does actually have excellent vision.   Unbelievable vision.  He just hasn't utilized it well to protect himself.

 

This is very common with teenaged players.   The average mortal doesn't fully understand safety until their mid-20's.   True story, with research to back it up.   In Baertschi's case, I thought he was "safer" in training camp than usual, and I see this as a good sign.  He still did take some hits, but did not sustain any hip or head injuries.

 

Anyway, the tools are there.   The maturity to play without injury has not been yet, but I think we will see a big change this year.

 

I think we will see an incredible player for the first 40 games.  If he makes it that far without injury, I think you'll see him put it into a whole other gear for the last 40 games.  Because, he is, For Sure, holding back.  Unsure after the concussions.  Still good enough to meet the 40-50 point targets posted on here.   But if he figures it all out, I don't see any ceilings.

 

fingers crossed.

 

 

So in other words, watch out Connor McDavid huh?  Heck, we don't even need McDavid if Baertschi has no limits.

[CastleMania]

I personally think that what will set baertschi apart is his drive. This kid is determined to be one of the best and you can see it in him every time he speaks. It's actually rather impressive.

[jjgallow]

So in other words, watch out Connor McDavid huh?  Heck, we don't even need McDavid if Baertschi has no limits.

 

He still needs a linemate lol...."Ceiling" in terms of a limit we can define this early in his career.  I don't think he's shown one yet.  Surely he will, in time.

[s4xon]

Just some updates during an interview with Sven.  I like his answers, very mature kid...

 

 

 

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

 

Side note:  Why do we have 2 threads for the kid?  Why not just merge them?

[jjgallow]

we do?   recently?