Brad Treliving, Advanced Stats, and Old School Thinking

[tmac70]

We are not winning hockey games anyway with or without Mc Grattan. Look at the rest of the team, who do we have that says this is a playoff team. Like someone else pointed out, he is 1 of 23. A combined -8 over 90+ games is better than a lot of other players. I know he doesn't play as much, but without him, this team was pushed around so much that there was no flow to the game. Put that in the advanced stats.

We are still in a rebuild. We are growing our prospects and growing our prospect pool. This team is going to have a lot of bad games, and possession numbers are going to mean something, but the fact remains we are a relatively young team and that is going to drive those numbers down regardless of who we have in there.

Bollig played for Chicago, one of the most skilled teams in the league. Just throwing that out there. Did they not win the cup last year because of that Fact?

Yes we have a crappy fourth line, yes we have an okay 3rd line, but we don't really have a real 1st line. This team is going to drive our possession numbers down. The management is buying time and trying to ice a reasonably competitive team while we keep developing players. We all know that our possession numbers are low because we did a elbowing job of drafting up until very recent. We still have to find out what we have in these recent draft picks.

Picking a guy like Smith in this last draft helps with the replacement of the enforcers because he can play big, hit and pinch in a goal or two every now and then...

Also, some of us are using then for than.... We are not talking time when comparing two things... It's easy to do and then keep writing, but then, I prefer to have it right than it being wrong. I make mistakes too though.

No LA won the cup even without Regher their toughest guy. Pretty sure the debate is enforcers make you a better team. Everyone knows playoffs for now are something we will watch and not participate in. 

[CheersMan]

His PRESENCE allows for our physically challenged players to play hockey.  His PRESENCE also allows for our kids to skate on the same sheet of ice as some opposing predators.  The last time I checked he could play hockey.

The four teams you mention win with a considerable amount of all world talent.  It will be a while before the Flames get some of that.

LA, Kopitar, Gaborik, Brown, Richards, Carter, Doughty
CHI, Kane Toews, Keith, Sharp, Hossa, Seabrook
STL, Stastny, Backes, Oshie, Steen, Bouwmeester
ANA, Perry, Getzlaf, Kesler

CAL, Little Johnny, Byron, Hudler (plus 5 other kids if some of you had your own way)

 

Nobody disputes the fact that Grats is tough. What the irrefutable point is does he wins us hockey games, no, he wins fights. I agree with having physical guys on a team but they have to be able to play hockey. LA, CHI St Louis,ANA they wear teams out with physical play not by fighting. Does having a fighter on your bench intimidate me, no, playing a highly offensive/physical team is more intimidating than having a fighter on the bench. 

[robrob74]

No LA won the cup even without Regher their toughest guy. Pretty sure the debate is enforcers make you a better team. Everyone knows playoffs for now are something we will watch and not participate in. 

LA also has a team that throws their bodies around and can play a physical game. Are you saying those guys can't fight? I think they're physical enough that they don't have to? They have team toughness. The flames dont have that because our most skilled guys are small and finess players.

Maybe we should be discussing the merits of having a core of smaller skilled players. Get us big skilled players then we can get rid of Grats. Until then, we need him.

[tmac70]

His PRESENCE allows for our physically challenged players to play hockey.  His PRESENCE also allows for our kids to skate on the same sheet of ice as some opposing predators.  The last time I checked he could play hockey.

The four teams you mention win with a considerable amount of all world talent.  It will be a while before the Flames get some of that.

LA, Kopitar, Gaborik, Brown, Richards, Carter, Doughty

CHI, Kane Toews, Keith, Sharp, Hossa, Seabrook

STL, Stastny, Backes, Oshie, Steen, Bouwmeester

ANA, Perry, Getzlaf, Kesler

CAL, Little Johnny, Byron, Hudler (plus 5 other kids if some of you had your own way)

So you believe that having him on the bench actually intimidates people. Name me a game where Grats came to the aid of a player who was taken liberty on. Let me use Stemps last year with Ferrance, Clean hit and Stemps get taken liberty on with no help. His presence did nothing to stop the action. 

If they had to each one could hold there on in a fight, sure. They don't win games and cups by fighting,a strong physical game is there is motto. So being a strong checking team is team toughness now? I think your starting to understand now, enforcers don't make you intimidating the game you play does.  

LA also has a team that throws their bodies around and can play a physical game. Are you saying those guys can't fight? I think they're physical enough that they don't have to? They have team toughness. The flames dont have that because our most skilled guys are small and finess players.

Maybe we should be discussing the merits of having a core of smaller skilled players. Get us big skilled players then we can get rid of Grats. Until then, we need him.

[cross16]

First, last season was exceptional. Hartley knew how to get under Torterellas skin and he did it. That isn't a plug for enforcers.

Second, being able to fight isn't a bad thing. It's like being big. Having big players helps. But the Flames over 200 pounds are McGrattan, Bollig, Engelland, Colborne, Jones, Bouma, Smid, and Setoguchi. I like Colborne and Bouma. Maybe Smid. But that list includes many recent acquisitions of some of our worst players.

Advanced stats don't say being big or being able to fight is bad. Personally my favourite players are the power forwards that can hit, score, and occasionally drop the gloves. LA is one of the poster teams for advanced stats and they are really big.

But they do show us that bad hockey players are liabilities. That should be obvious. But we keep loading the roster with bad hockey players because they can fight or are big.

I think some teams are still over rating size and toughness and are willing to forgive a lot to get it. The Flames appear to be one of those teams.

I think in a lot of ways we are saying the same thing. There is room and a need for enforcer types but they need to play as well and that the market for a Mcgratton type player is shrinking. I agree with all of that.

I don't think it's that special because yes it got under Torts skin but it also intimidated Vancouver players as well. They backed off and played a more conservative game IMO so it was not as simple as totes losing his cool.

I get what your saying but I guess where I disagree is saying that the flames are bucking the trend. I think the flame are rebuilding and with that comes two things- one a lack of skill and two- more youth. I think when you lack skill you better be tough to play against otherwise prepare to get blown out game in and game out. Everyone wants to be big and skilled that would be great but the reality is it's tough to find players that have the combination and they are not the ones the flames can easily acquire at this point. I happen to think Bolig was a finr acquisition and playing fine for his role, but the rest are roster filler for a team that is lacking in a other areas IMO. If the flames were holding back skill, or have more skill as a team and are still insisting on bigger but not great players then I will agree theg are stuck on the times but I don't believe that yk be the case.

[conundrumed]

I  don't know about the rest of you, but hockey stats should carry a "beware" imho.

Hockey isn't baseball.

A player's statline rarely carries over similar to another set of teammates and doesn't account for progression/digression beyond stats, in this day and age. That's why guys still come out of nowhere, because they defy the statline. Happens a few times/yr.

For the OP, I see value in it, but case by case, thats perhaps why you percieve we're behind. In our case at this moment, I see little value.

When our team is set, sure. The transition we're currently in, notsomuch.

[CheersMan]

Yes, having Grats on the bench intimidates the opposition.  It’s impossible to measure how much because having him PRESENT often prevents “an event” from ever happening. 

It would be similar to you and your buddies walking down 17 Ave late Friday night, wooping it up after a few pops, then you decide to pull into the last pub on the stroll for one last pop.  You and your loud friends enter the pub, realizing it’s still open but empty.  There are only 2 people sitting at the bar, which happen to be Hells Angels, wearing their colors.  You and your boyfriends suddenly sober up while having a very quiet beer.   

The Ferrance assault on Stemniak was unavoidable IMO.  Ferrance was in the infancy of his captaincy (game 21).  The Oil record was a dismal 4W and 17L.  Stempniak takes Ferrance hard into the boards and embarrasses him.  Ferrance was already at his boiling point prior to the hit, now some twerp in a Red Jersey takes him hard into the boards in his own building?  Ferrance would have dropped the gloves with anyone at this time (including Grats).  Fortunately for Ferrance, Grats was already serving time for a tilt with Gazdic just 3 minutes earlier.  Ferrance rag dolls Stemniak and shows some leadership in a winning cause.  Oilers then go 7W and 4L in the next 11 games.

 

So you believe that having him on the bench actually intimidates people. Name me a game where Grats came to the aid of a player who was taken liberty on. Let me use Stemps last year with Ferrance, Clean hit and Stemps get taken liberty on with no help. His presence did nothing to stop the action. 

[kehatch]

You can measure the impact. Are there fewer injuries when McGrattan is on the bench? Do they score more goals? Let in fewer goals. Win more games? No.

[CheersMan]

I’m not arguing for or against advanced stats.  I truthfully don’t know anything about them.  If advanced stats show a negative impact with McGratton in the lineup then I would argue that advanced stats do not capture the entire picture.

You can measure the impact. Are there fewer injuries when McGrattan is on the bench? Do they score more goals? Let in fewer goals. Win more games? No.

[kehatch]

I’m not arguing for or against advanced stats. I truthfully don’t know anything about them. If advanced stats show a negative impact with McGratton in the lineup then I would argue that advanced stats do not capture the entire picture.

I wasn't talking about advanced stats. I just don't agree with the argument that intimidation keeps players safer and makes them play better but is somehow not measurable. If it makes such a difference then results should be better with the enforcer and worse without. But that isn't the case.

Look at tonight. I don't see our Flames playing worse with McGrattan off the ice. What I see is a competent fourth line that is actually generating chances.

[phoenix66]

I wasn't talking about advanced stats. I just don't agree with the argument that intimidation keeps players safer and makes them play better but is somehow not measurable. If it makes such a difference then results should be better with the enforcer and worse without. But that isn't the case.

Look at tonight. I don't see our Flames playing worse with McGrattan off the ice. What I see is a competent fourth line that is actually generating chances.

Because, just like fighting, you pick your spots. Nashville is not a tough truculent team. Theres no need to play that card, you can get by with a Bollig and Engelland. Like I said earlier,some teams are known for cheap play. Thats when Grats needs to be there. Like in other sports, you don't throw the ball at the best corner, you walk the best hitter,..you dont cheap shot or rough up skill players with a mgrattan on the bench.

Many seem to forget why we went at got McGrattan back..because our goalies were getting run left and right.and nobody was doing anythibg about it, we were getting pushed around with only tim Jackman to do anything, he fought lots...and usually lost. And this was still when it was iggys team!

LA is a big tough team, they beat the rangers into submission, it could be argued the rangers were the more skilled team, but the tougher team won.

Until we can roll 4 lines of skilled big ornery players, players like grats makes every player bigger.. OMG you got michael backlund of all people willing to get into people's faces because he knows people have his back, and at the end of the day we got the tougher guy.

I love the analogy used earlier about the 2 hells angels in a bar.. could you probably take 2 of them? Quite possibly! Do you even try? Of course not.,

At the end of the day, its about presence..the best fighters dont need to fight anymore but having them there keeps other players honest..creates room for skill players to use skill..

We can argue all day long about fighting, useless goons, its place, etc...but I guarantee you there isnt one player on this team doesnt want grats there

[kehatch]

LA isn't a big tough team because they have a goon in the line up. Show me evidence that having McGrattan makes a positive difference. Otherwise it's just pages of talk siting traditional thinking that a majority of teams in the NHL are no longer using.

Having bad hockey players on your hockey team isn't a good thing. It's strange how many ways people attempt to justify it. But it isn't any more complicated than that.

[robrob1974]

has anyone taken to account McGrattan's leadership qualities and what he is like in the room? There's a reason Hartley is playing him. It may be to enforce, but it's also possible what does behind the scene.

[stubblejumper1]

Yes, having Grats on the bench intimidates the opposition.  It’s impossible to measure how much because having him PRESENT often prevents “an event” from ever happening. 

It would be similar to you and your buddies walking down 17 Ave late Friday night, wooping it up after a few pops, then you decide to pull into the last pub on the stroll for one last pop.  You and your loud friends enter the pub, realizing it’s still open but empty.  There are only 2 people sitting at the bar, which happen to be Hells Angels, wearing their colors.  You and your boyfriends suddenly sober up while having a very quiet beer.   

The Ferrance assault on Stemniak was unavoidable IMO.  Ferrance was in the infancy of his captaincy (game 21).  The Oil record was a dismal 4W and 17L.  Stempniak takes Ferrance hard into the boards and embarrasses him.  Ferrance was already at his boiling point prior to the hit, now some twerp in a Red Jersey takes him hard into the boards in his own building?  Ferrance would have dropped the gloves with anyone at this time (including Grats).  Fortunately for Ferrance, Grats was already serving time for a tilt with Gazdic just 3 minutes earlier.  Ferrance rag dolls Stemniak and shows some leadership in a winning cause.  Oilers then go 7W and 4L in the next 11 games.

A true enforcer would pull Ference out of the player's bench and lay a beating on him.  That will never happen because it would result in a five minute powerplay and a suspension.  Enforcer's can't do their job anymore...they just fight the other team's enforcer.  Ergo, the role of the enforcer is dwindling and is not a part of championship teams.

[conundrumed]

Don't know what the point of focusing on MacGrattan is. We have players up and down the lineup that are just keeping seats warm.

Shouldn't have to remind anyone we're buying time to progress.

Singling out any as it resonates in stats and corsi and all of that crap is impertinent.

The only stat that matters right now is we aren't very good.

Can't play billyball with that. So many games inside and out get driven by some particular passion from 1 or 2 players most nights.

If you get a team rolling with that kind of team motive, they can be a dangerous team no matter how bad they should be.

 

As you can likely see, I'm the polar opposite of a stats guy as they apply to hockey. You here a lot about momentum, and momentum is simply motivation. More than any sport, momentum in hockey comes mainly from emotions imho, and I've often pondered, "how do you average that"?

Stats are should, would, could individually. But the whole picture is far bigger to spend a lot of time mired in stats rather than simply coaching your team to play the way you want them to play.

[kehatch]

Not singling out McGrattan. Just pointing out the Flames are one of the few teams with a pure enforcer remaining on the roster. I think that's a fair point.

Honest question to the anti stats crowd. Have you actually looked into them? I remember boomer and Warrener a year ago all over Pinder about them. But it was really clear they didn't know anything about them. In my experience many of the biggest anti stat supporters couldn't tell you why they don't like them beyond the "this isn't baseball, can't quantify a game that is this fast or dynamic, etc" They just don't know anything about them.

It's the same with the enforcer argument. Lots of people will passionately tell you how they protect the kids and get them to play bigger. They prevent injuries. They keep the other team from running your players. Etc. But they can't actually put forward anything resembling proof.

[DirtyDeeds]

Corsi isn't proof of much..

 

I listened Fan 960 interview, to a Advanced stats grandfather guy who has been keeping them since the beginning.

 

He says they are mostly inaccurate unless you gather the stats yourself, because the NHL doesn't keep those stats. So if you go to one of the websites and just look at their figures you are likely getting garbage or not the full picture. eg: How can one guy in Boston do advanced stats on breakouts for a game played in Calgary? Near impossible to get it accurate with some TV coverage and camera angles.

 

Even to this day he claims you need to be in the stands with counters and doing the footwork yourself.

[tmac70]

Stats are just a nerd's way of trying to fit in an athletic game they can't play. I think BB stated that there is no proof that advance stats can win you a cup. Until someone designs a program to measure success via advance stats, it is all speculative.

 

The Oiler's and TO have are now in to analytics, not sure how it has helped them. So advance stats of EDM game and CAL game would have shown you reverse results. This is were people who do the science and math get no support. Their numbers show different results to the outcome of a game, hence the on going dispute.

[kehatch]

I agree one of the limitations of advanced stats is the accuracy of the data. Something being rectified through improved tracking. But despite an error threshold that this introduces they have been consistent in predicting results. Which is one of the reasons most teams are getting on board.

Personally I think many of the terms we hear today (ie Corsi) aren't going to be the backbone of analytics in the future. The principles will be, but the tracking and metrics will evolve as teams figure this stuff out.

[Kulstad]

Not singling out McGrattan. Just pointing out the Flames are one of the few teams with a pure enforcer remaining on the roster. I think that's a fair point.

Honest question to the anti stats crowd. Have you actually looked into them? I remember boomer and Warrener a year ago all over Pinder about them. But it was really clear they didn't know anything about them. In my experience many of the biggest anti stat supporters couldn't tell you why they don't like them beyond the "this isn't baseball, can't quantify a game that is this fast or dynamic, etc" They just don't know anything about them.

It's the same with the enforcer argument. Lots of people will passionately tell you how they protect the kids and get them to play bigger. They prevent injuries. They keep the other team from running your players. Etc. But they can't actually put forward anything resembling proof.

 

I'm not a big fan of "the new math", and never will be.  Here's my reply to your question:

 

"This isn't baseballl" - I know you already mentioned this, but it's true.  Baseball has always been the biggest user of stats in professional sports, and probably deservedly so.  Hockey has its share of stats....traditional stats....and to start introducing new stats to the average fan just seems pointless.  If management wants to use them, fine.  There's always been managerial stats and figures used in EVERY business.  Just don't try to pawn them off on Joe or Jane AverageFan.  They're not necessary.

 

"It over-complicates things" - I care about how many shots Player X has taken over the season.  I care that Goalie B has a 1.11 GAA and a .977 GAA.  I don't care about how long Player A has the puck on his stick in the offensive zone vs how long the puck is on his stick in the defensive zone. If I do, as Joe AverageFan, the most reaction it will garner from me is a "Really?  Huh"

 

"The stats themselves are complicated to understand" - I'm not an idiot, nor do I consider myself a genius.  I'm just an average guy who likes his beer, and likes his hockey.  I grew up listening to, and understanding, SOG, GAA, SV%, power play and penalty kill rankings, etc.  The "new stats" are confusing in that it requires that actual mental work be put into something that I partake in as a way to escape the mental assault I've been under all day.  To put it bluntly: me no want think bout hockey.....me want just watch hockey.

 

I know I probably hear about the new stats every day, but I couldn't even tell you what one of them would be.  And there seems to be new stats categories introduced every time someone talks about these new stats.  Why? 

 

And please...tell me please what CORSI stand for?  I truly don't know

 

============================================

 

Perhaps I'm just a "get off my lawn, you no-good kids" kinda guy, but with all the changes in the traditional game that I grew up with (many of which I don't always agree with) currently going on, the introduction of some new-fangled stats that, on the surface, nobody but management and the stereotypical nerd would care about seems like just another unnecessary complicated change.

[CheersMan]

Mr Corsi himself?

 

 

 

 

Brian Burke and ????

[Pyromancer]

Perhaps I'm just a "get off my lawn, you no-good kids" kinda guy

You know your getting older when.....

Welcome to the club

 

Jonas Hiller steals one for Calgary because hockey is a crazy, random game - Adam Gretz - sbnation.com

 

With advanced stats and shot-based metrics like Corsi and Fenwick becoming a staple of the hockey lexicon and teams going all in on analytics, games like this are going to get magnified as a shortcoming of the analytical side of the sport. But those numbers, as great, meaningful and important as they are over extended periods of time, mean relatively little when it comes a single game sampling.

[SheriforPM]

The announcers were going nuts last night about corsi and stats and forgot to look at the scoreboard for most of the game.

Yes they were biased.

Yes, Hiller stole us a game.

 

My point is, as with Kulstad I don't care about the new stats. I don't even look at TSN.ca any more because it sucks. All stats, no flair. Dregger thinks he is a genius when in fact he became really boring. To fans like myself or my Dad, the only fact we care about is the scoreboard.

Grats is my favourite player. Why? Not because he wins fights, though that is cool beans. It's because he is a great guy! The other players love him. The fans love him. Is there room for enforcers in hockey? Not so much any more. Do I want to get rid of Grats for a defender who can kinda fight? Not really. He is at the top of his game simply because he is the best at what he does and more importantly, gives everything he has every single time he steps on the ice. 

Remember Bourque? Yeah, probably has great corsi stats. The guy sucks. Plays when he wants to. I'll take Grats over him any day.

[conundrumed]

Honest question to the anti stats crowd. Have you actually looked into them? I remember boomer and Warrener a year ago all over Pinder about them. But it was really clear they didn't know anything about them. In my experience many of the biggest anti stat supporters couldn't tell you why they don't like them beyond the "this isn't baseball, can't quantify a game that is this fast or dynamic, etc" They just don't know anything about them.

 

 

Fair enough. I'm where Kulstad is at.

 

Baseball is basic. You hit certain pitche®s, certain situations well. You field the way you field. You get traded, your teammates don't have much to do with your attributes.

It's a different animal and you get, pretty much, your scouting report in a player.

I agree with stats in this regard, it's a far more individual sport where stats can be extremely relevant.

 

I know it's a passion of yours kehatch and enjoy some great stuff you show, I'm just of the mind that it's become convoluted and ever-adjusted/utilized to "prove" a point, which, of course, stems from an agenda. There's relevant stats, even those require consideration. But now there's even "crap goes in, crap comes back" stats.

[kehatch]

Jim Corsi is the St Louis goalie coach. He developed the Corsi stat as a method to evaluate goalie workload. All it is is total shot attempts.

Normally it is shown as a differential. Number of shot attempts for vs against while a player is on the ice. For example, in 60 minutes of even strength ice time Giordano is on the ice for 15 more shot attempts for versus against. Pretty remarkable given who he plays against.

Meanwhile, for every 60 minutes McGrattan plays there are over 50 more shot attempts against vs for. And he plays against fourth liners. (Still early though, but last season he finished at -27).

It isn't crazy voodoo or super hard to understand. It's pretty tough to argue that being out for more shot attempts for isn't a good thing. But for whatever reason some people dismiss it without any knowledge.

As a fan that is fine. Some people want to know what's under the hood of their car, others just want to drive it. But the Flames management can't afford to dismiss it. They would be dismissing information.