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Brad Treliving, Advanced Stats, and Old School Thinking


kehatch

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Jim Corsi is the St Louis goalie coach. He developed the Corsi stat as a method to evaluate goalie workload. All it is is total shot attempts minus blocked shots.

Normally it is shown as a differential. Number of shot attempts for vs against while a player is on the ice. For example, in 60 minutes of even strength ice time Giordano is on the ice for 15 more shot attempts for versus against. Pretty remarkable given who he plays against.

Meanwhile, for every 60 minutes McGrattan plays there are over 50 more shot attempts against vs for. And he plays against fourth liners. (Still early though, but last season he finished at -27).

It isn't crazy voodoo or super hard to understand. It's pretty tough to argue that being out for more shot attempts for isn't a good thing. But for whatever reason some people dismiss it without any knowledge.

As a fan that is fine. Some people want to know what's under the hood of their car, others just want to drive it. But the Flames management can't afford to dismiss it. They would be dismissing information.

 

Thank you for this excellent explanation, kehatch.  Given how much people keep talking about "new stats", and seemingly coming up with new ones on the fly and categorizing it as a CORSI stat (even though they may be talking out of their checking from behind), I'm sure you can understand why most people tune out.

 

There's no question that every sport has its stats junkies (or "those who want to know what's under the hood of the car"), but I would counter with that segment of the hockey-loving fan is still relatively small.  And I would never dream of arguing against management needing to know these kinds of things...it would be completely irresponsible if they didn't use them.

 

This doesn't change my view on whether I want or need them in *my* enjoyment of the game, but I can see why some people would.  I'm fine knowing that my Silverado has a power engine, I just don't go so far as to want to know the intricacies of why :)

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Thank you for this excellent explanation, kehatch. Given how much people keep talking about "new stats", and seemingly coming up with new ones on the fly and categorizing it as a CORSI stat (even though they may be talking out of their checking from behind), I'm sure you can understand why most people tune out.

There's no question that every sport has its stats junkies (or "those who want to know what's under the hood of the car"), but I would counter with that segment of the hockey-loving fan is still relatively small. And I would never dream of arguing against management needing to know these kinds of things...it would be completely irresponsible if they didn't use them.

This doesn't change my view on whether I want or need them in *my* enjoyment of the game, but I can see why some people would. I'm fine knowing that my Silverado has a power engine, I just don't go so far as to want to know the intricacies of why :)

That's fair. I understand why some fans don't enjoy it. The advanced stats crowd hasn't done themselves any favours by simplifying it for the masses. For example, shot attempts would make more sense then Corsi. Plus there are dozens of ways to look at Corsi without an agreed on standard. Not to mention that his is just one of many metrics. There is an unfortunate barrier for entry.

Plus, as DD indicated there are some accuracy issues. Shot attempts are quantified differently at each arena making comparisons across different teams a bit of an issue.

But the technology is improving tracking and the NHL combined with media will make the stats more accessible. We aren't that far away from supposed advanced stats being part of www.nhl.com.

The purpose of the post isn't to suggest all fans should be on board. But that the Flames, at least to outside eyes, seem to be one of the last groups to the table. They haven't invested in analytics. Players like Engelland and Bollig were bad in prior seasons by metrics like Corsi yet we signed one to a big contract and gave up assets for the other. Plus they stick with a fourth line that gets demolished by the metrics.

Since these are the guys building the team of the future I have some concerns with that.

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The announcers were going nuts last night about corsi and stats and forgot to look at the scoreboard for most of the game.

Yes they were biased.

Yes, Hiller stole us a game.

 

My point is, as with Kulstad I don't care about the new stats. I don't even look at TSN.ca any more because it sucks. All stats, no flair. Dregger thinks he is a genius when in fact he became really boring. To fans like myself or my Dad, the only fact we care about is the scoreboard.

Grats is my favourite player. Why? Not because he wins fights, though that is cool beans. It's because he is a great guy! The other players love him. The fans love him. Is there room for enforcers in hockey? Not so much any more. Do I want to get rid of Grats for a defender who can kinda fight? Not really. He is at the top of his game simply because he is the best at what he does and more importantly, gives everything he has every single time he steps on the ice. 

Remember Bourque? Yeah, probably has great corsi stats. The guy sucks. Plays when he wants to. I'll take Grats over him any day.

 

I also notice they don't show every goal either. Well, a lot of the sports channels don't. "Let's pick it up at 1-1… HOw the boarding did it get to 1-1… . or skip to 4-4… hooking fest over. :)

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Is this team really our future team?

Most of them are on a bridge Contract. Bridge meaning the next two to three years. They need to keep the team competitive (well... Sort of), teach the prospects the work ethic, help them getting used to the NHL game.

I am really happy the Flames are not even thinking of rushing ANY prospect into the line up.

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  • 2 weeks later...

Is this team really our future team?

Most of them are on a bridge Contract. Bridge meaning the next two to three years. They need to keep the team competitive (well... Sort of), teach the prospects the work ethic, help them getting used to the NHL game.

I am really happy the Flames are not even thinking of rushing ANY prospect into the line up.

That may be true but keeping them all means our future team is already mostly in-hand. I'd rather several (4-6) get traded in-season. Will BT make the trades or is he going to be satisfied pushing the playoff envelope this year?
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  • 2 weeks later...

After the small sample size for the year, I think we can give a fair assement of how BT's signings has fair this season:

 

Hiller: Great Signing has been stellar this year. He looked shacky a few times but has been a rock for the club. Plus signing

 

Bollig and Engelland: With hopes that each player would elevate their games, they have been horrible. Poor Signings

 

Seto: Was hopeful that he and the above two stepped up but the experiment has failed.

 

Diaz:  I would have to chalk this up as a fail as well, He can't beat out Smid or Englelland for a roster spot says volumes.

 

Currently, the positive's on this club were from Feaster and CO. The players that have not given us any impact are BT's signings. We were to get bigger and more physical but have not. The saving grace is these are signings. I hope to hell he doesn't trade in the same manner. Looking at his current signings, outside of Hiller, he has failed miserably.

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After the small sample size for the year, I think we can give a fair assement of how BT's signings has fair this season:

 

Hiller: Great Signing has been stellar this year. He looked shacky a few times but has been a rock for the club. Plus signing

 

Bollig and Engelland: With hopes that each player would elevate their games, they have been horrible. Poor Signings

 

Seto: Was hopeful that he and the above two stepped up but the experiment has failed.

 

Diaz:  I would have to chalk this up as a fail as well, He can't beat out Smid or Englelland for a roster spot says volumes.

 

Currently, the positive's on this club were from Feaster and CO. The players that have not given us any impact are BT's signings. We were to get bigger and more physical but have not. The saving grace is these are signings. I hope to hell he doesn't trade in the same manner. Looking at his current signings, outside of Hiller, he has failed miserably.

As an option to an aging McGrattan, they provide a bit. Early yet to validate their overall usefullness, but early results are not good. Playing McGrattan is not anything better. Seto was an experiment at a low cost; easy to eliminate and no term to worry about. Diaz is a work in progress and still could have value; again low cost, no term. Potter is doing OK in the AHL, so he may have value; again, low cost no term. Hiller was good for value and term.

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You are correct, my bad. Forgot Potter who is now in the AHL. That stated are you fine with a 29% success rate. Hell Engleland is making more than Brodie and Russell this season

 

Early returns shouldn't bring a condemnation of the GM at this point. Moves to add to the cap and address needs, without killing our prospect pool and 2015 picks shouldn't be considered fails until the end of the year, when all results are in. Potter and Diaz could turn into Brodies or Russells. Seto could net a trade. Bollig could be a TDL trade if he doesn't step up. Engelland could give us that flexibility to dress rookies without falling below the cap, assuming he doesn't improve.

 

Give it some time to see what the results are.

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You are correct, my bad. Forgot Potter who is now in the AHL. That stated are you fine with a 29% success rate. Hell Engleland is making more than Brodie and Russell this season

I am not a big fan of our adds. That said, Treliving wasn't fixing this team in free agency. They were fillers.

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  • 1 month later...

Bumping this aged thread.

Here is a link showing someone taking Advanced Stats to the extreme. :rolleyes:

 

Panthers vs Flames: Mauled (Stats Recap) - matchsticksandgasoline.com

 

I like my stats but I would never dream of dissecting a game like this.

All the observations & conclusions pointed out can simply be reached just by watching the damn game! B)2256

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Bumping this aged thread.

Here is a link showing someone taking Advanced Stats to the extreme. :rolleyes:

 

Panthers vs Flames: Mauled (Stats Recap) - matchsticksandgasoline.com

 

I like my stats but I would never dream of dissecting a game like this.

All the observations & conclusions pointed out can simply be reached just by watching the damn game! B)2256

Agreed

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