bosn111

Florida is the First team to clinch a playoff spot. Colorado is close, and in reality has clinched just not mathematically official yet. They have 104 points (Vegas maximum) but Dallas can hit 109 and are first team out of playoffs. LA can hit 106 and Edmonton can hit 109. I know realistically those numbers won’t happen, but it is the way the NHL goes about calling clinched or not. ( See Florida) Based on the tight race, the numbers to clinch playoffs and Division are very close for Calgary. 13 points (6.5 games) for playoffs (see Vegas), 18 points (9 games) for the Division title (See Edmonton). Flames have 2 games against Seattle, 1 against Arizona (both mathematically eliminated already), 1 Winnipeg, 1 Vancouver, 1 Anaheim, 1 San Jose, 2 Nashville, 1 Minnesota, 1 Chicago, 1 Vegas, 1 Dallas. (Not in order) The Vegas game may be the most important of them all based on Standings. Vegas is 4th in the division, so as long as the Flames remain ahead of them, they make playoffs ahead of Wildcard spot.

After the win tonight, it is now 17 points to clinch playoffs and 24 to clinch the division. So in baseball format that is 8.5 and 12 games respectively.

I know others on here are better at this than I am, especially making tables that are easily updated. With 18 games remaining in the regular season, I figured I would start this thread. Flames currently have 86 points in 64 games. Vegas is currently first spot out of the playoffs at 74 in 67 and Winnipeg second out with 72 in 66. So currently if both teams win out the season, they can each hit 104 points. This means the Flames need a 19 point differential to clinch a playoff spot. LA and Edmonton can each hit 111 points by winning out the season, so the Flames need a 26 point differential to clinch first in the division. Statistically the Flames have a better chance at both, but I don’t feel like doing the more in depth math lol.

Ok we have passed the quarter mark of the season. 24 games is enough games to look at trends and consider possible future outcomes. The Flames currently sit 1st in the pacific, 1st in the West though Edmonton and Minnesota have games in hand which could move them ahead. They have been great on the road, less so at home but far from bad. A great first quarter has them in a good position where they are not fighting from the back of the pack. Not winning many blowouts, lots of close games so they shouldn’t be feeling high and mighty rather we have worked hard to be here and need to keep working hard to stay here. I hope both goalies can stay hot, but we all knew their stats were unsustainable long term. As long as they can both stay near the top of tender stats the Flames will have a solid season. The forwards as a whole are having a good start to the season. Overcoming offseason and early season injuries has delayed performance by a few (Monahan, Pitlick, Richardson) but overall they are playing well regardless of line combinations. The defence has been very good to start. The goalies have been great and saved a bunch of mistakes by D men but in order to have so many shut outs already means the D has also supported the goalies. I would say that Kylington and Valimaki are a microcosm of the Flames over the past few seasons. While Valimaki jumped into a big league role directly, even after a serious injury, he had a lot of leash to work with and hasn’t had the expected results from the experience. Kylington was given a much tougher ride and needed to fight through challenges and disappointment before getting an opportunity and running with it. Now Kylington is playing top 4 and very well and Valimaki has been sent down to the AHL. The Flames a few seasons ago when they were best in the west regular season, they faced little disappointment and few challenges. Players were in roles that seemed to be given rather than earned (except Bennett). This year Monahan was pushed down to 4th line and has worked up to 3rd. Mangiapane playing 2nd line as earned. Kylington, Hanifin and Andersson playing top 4. Lewis, Richardson, Pitlick all bottom 6 and playing roles asked of them, Coleman not left in top 6 just because. Accountability under Sutter has been very important. If I look at Individual players ratings, I would say these would be them (I am taking into account cap hit and results). Great start Mangiapane on track for 60 goals. Not likely to hit that, but a career year with 40+ is not out of the question. Currently only 2 goals away from his career high of 18 which took him 56 games. Gaudreau has 27 points already with 9 goals. Likely ending with 30+ goals and might break 100 points. Beyond the offence he is also getting back defensively and I have seen him throw a couple of good body checks. He seems to be rounding out his game under Sutter and it is creating more space for him on offence. Lindholm is on track to be a PPG player and 30+ goals. He has been very steady at C and is doing everything he needs to do. At under 5 mil, he is exactly what the Flames need. Kylington already has a career high in goals, assists and points. Playing with Tanev has developed into a Giordano/Brodie caliber pairing. They just fit. He still makes the odd mistake, but he is greatly improved and has earned his spot. Tanev for steadying the D, helping anyone he plays with. He may never be an offensive dynamo and likely will never win the Norris for that reason, but it is no wonder that Flames D has improved the past 2 years while the Canucks have faltered. Markstrom is hard to argue with a 1.76 .939 start with a significant lead in shut outs. Hard to predict final stats, but if he can keep close, the Flames will be successful. Vladar has been the best backup Flames have had in years. 5-0-1 to start with shut outs and 1.78 .939. Again hard to predict but if he can maintain this pace or close it will help Flames chances for sure. Very good Start Tkachuk has had a very good start. Hasn’t been quite the same pest of the past and his offence is not as high as Johnny, or the same goals as Mangiapane. As top salary I can’t place him at excellent. On track for 40 goals (more likely 30 something) and around 80 points he should end up close to a PPG player. For his salary he should be over that in a contract year looking for 9 mil+. If he was under 5 mil I would consider this excellent. Andersson and Hanifin will sit at this spot together. They are a very good pair and are both double digit plus players. While their offence isn’t where we would hope, they are playing much better defensively and the offence should come. Lewis and Richardson both fit here as they are doing exactly what is needed from 4th liners making only 800 k. Good start Backlund is having a good start. Steady on 2nd line considering the revolving line mates, but at over 5 mil, his offence needs to be better to be ranked higher. Coleman for the same reasons as Backlund. Steadies his line mates but at his contract he needs to add more offence. Lucic is on track for 20+ goals which is great for him, but for his contract we should get more. If his cap hit was in the 2.5 - 3 range I would have him in the very good start level. Gudbranson is doing exactly what a bottom pair D needs to do. He is one of my good surprises as he is doing better than I expected. Average start Dube has been playing well but with limited offence he is not where he should be, especially when making over 2 mil. Pitlick hasn’t been bad, but also not doing a lot to stand out. If he was paid like Lewis and Richardson I would call his play good, but at almost 2 mil, I can only say average. Zadorov has been steady, but again 3.75 is very expensive for a bottom pair D who is not a special teams specialist. Disappointing start I don’t see Monahan staying at this level, and the off season surgery needs to be taken into account, but a former top line C known as a perennial 30+ goal getter to be down in the bottom 6, on track for 12 goals making over 6 mil is disappointing. Valimaki was a high draft pick. Playing on the big club last year he has spent a lot of time in the press box and recently demoted. Outplayed by 2 D who seemed to be questionable signings, this is definitely a disappointment. Not enough data Stone getting in only 1 game, he remains the perfect 7th D. Can’t complain as he makes so little. Thoughts?

Hellybuck doing all he can for the Jets. Could easily be 5+ for the Flames if not for him.

The thing around trading Tkachuk has nothing at all to do with his skill or style of play. I wouldn’t want to have the Flames play against him. Last night he showed what he is capable of. As he matures he may get more consistent at doing that night in and night out. There are 3 main reasons why Tkachuk could / should be traded: 1. He is a high value asset that must bring back a high value return. You are looking at getting an equal player in return or a high impact player plus. Which leads to…. 2. Calgary currently has a glut of LW talent both on the team and in the pipeline. C is not top notch (no McDavid, MacKinnon etc.) but with Lindholm, Backlund, Monahan etc. it is above average. If Calgary were to trade Tkachuk for a top RW (I know he is currently there) or an upgrade at C then it would be a win. 3. The Flames are tight to the cap going into next season needing to re-sign Gaudreau, Tkachuk, Mangiapane and Kylington plus decide on keeping or replacing Pitlick, Lewis, Richardson, Zadorov, Gudbranson, Stone and Ritchie. If expectations stand that the cap remains flat, without making other trades, the Flames have just under 28.5 cap space to do the above. The way he is playing, Kylington gets no less than Valimaki at 1.5 and possibly more. Mangiapane likely in the Coleman plus range so around 5. Those are the easy ones. If both Gaudreau and and Tkachuk re-sign for 9 (Tkachuk may hold out for more), that leaves 4 mil to fill 6 spots (3F and 3 D). In theory could be 2 D but still. Each of the spots need to be filled essentially with league minimum including 1 middle 6 forward and 1 regular D. This makes it difficult to fill holes. So cap wise you are most likely needing to move 1 of Tkachuk or Gaudreau or risk losing at least 1 for nothing. If we had an extra year to see the Monahan and Lucic contracts going down, then it would be much easier. Lucic is still good at the 1.5-2 range and based on last year and so far this year, Monahan around 3 would be fair. That would be around 7 mil in cap savings with only Duehr, Valimaki and Vladar looking at negotiating but not likely needing big changes at this rate. Sadly that is a year too far to be useful in this case. Don’t forget also that the punishment Tkachuk takes for his style of play will likely shorten his career and he knows it, so looking to get max cash as soon as possible. So any thoughts around trading Tkachuk has nothing at all to do with the player himself but for what would be the best for the team moving forward due to cap issues and having a more balanced team (not following Edmonton or Toronto with a few high contracts and little to fill in the rest). I would love to be able to be loyal to all of our players, but that can’t always happen in a cap era. It can be done by trading Monahan or Lucic, but then where is our loyalty to them?

I am happy that Kylington has made big strides this year. He is looking really good and fits well. He is earning his playing time and has really stepped up. In many ways I swish Valimaki had been put on the same path. Overcoming the disappointment of being sent down multiple times has lit a fire for Kylington and he is now proving himself. Would he be the same without that initial disappointment and learning in the A for a few years?

Philly really clogging up the blue line to start the game. Making it tough to enter the offensive zone.

I see Sutter as a earned not given coach. That being said it is different from what many fans consider this type of coach to be. The big difference with his earned is that it comes from paying your dues, putting in the work over multiple years not just one good camp showing. This is why he seems to be a veterans coach. If Duehr has a good AHL season, continues to develop and shows well again at camp next fall, he may stick with the big club. Veterans likely are considered to have paid their dues and that’s why they have earned their spot.

How does Kassian end up skating with 2 sticks from goal line to blue line and not have an instant penalty for holding the stick?

Having 7D, 1 being Gudbranson, against the Oilers wouldn’t require Valimaki and Kylington to split duties. Kylington could play as a forward some of the time and play D while Gudbranson is serving his fighting major and misconduct. Saves the other D some extra work. Also covers any other penalties Gudbranson or Zadorov take by being physically aggressive. Might be a smart move.

Coleman suspended for 1 preseason and 1 regular season game. Who gets the extra look from the team? Duehr? Gawdin? Froese? Kirkland?

It is one thing to have a 4th line winger like a Ritchie to need to sit out a 10 minute misconduct when he likely plays less than 20 minutes a game anyways. My issue specifically with Gudbranson doing that, is you are now down to 5 D instead of 6 which causes further exhaustion as they cover, plus you lose a forward for 2 minutes for the instigator. If Gudbranson gets beaten multiple plays leading to goals in a game on top of that doesn’t appeal to me at all. I would prefer Mackey who plays better defensively who won’t take those extra penalties any day. You can have a tough team that nobody messes with physically but that doesn’t mean you will win games if those tough guys can’t handle the rest of the game.

While Gudbranson stepping up is nice, his instigator put the Flames short for an extended period due to his misconduct. Thankfully it didn’t hurt the team on the scoreboard, but regular season against full NHL teams is completely different. If the only thing Gudbranson brings is that toughness, the fighting, that is not worth the spot. If he is a detriment on ice and getting regularly beat, then I would choose someone else.

Takes 2 attempts but Ritchie finally buries an empty net.

Watching much of the game last night, there was little that impressed me. As others have mentioned, the final results are unimportant, it is what individual players do that is the point of these games, especially for the prospects. The only players that had positive moments in the game for me at all were Dube, Mangiapane and Vladar consistently, Kylington had some flashes as did Ruzicka, Mackey and Duehr. Pospisil had a couple minor flashes as well. The biggest disappointment for me in the game was Valimaki. On one goal, he chose to drop to his stomach and slowly slide to the side of the goal as a player was pushing to the outside. Said player just skated by him, passed to the slot and goal scored. Admittedly Stone lost the goal scorer, but Valimaki leaving his feet was pointless. Later in the game he did the same thing on the other side of the net with zero effect on the play, luckily no goal. I just didn’t see anything all that impressive from Valimaki. What I liked most from Kylington was PP QB. He moves the puck very well, good vision and moves the pocket around as well. I was surprised at how well he did this. Defending was a bit more of an adventure but with the right D partner to cover for him, he may be fine. Mackey getting his feet back. I don’t see top 4 from him right now, but could be a solid bottom pair in the next few years.

Based on groupings and the presser by Treliving, the Flames may carry 3 goalies to avoid any issues in case of injury. Sounds like Parsons knew he has no shot at the big club so didn’t bother coming to camp. Just headed straight to Stockton to get ready for AHL duty.

The Thomas signing puts the Blues 1.2 ish mil over the cap. Demoting any one of Bozak, MacEachern or Clifford won’t clear enough cap. Likely Frolik and Neal, both on PTOs, will get cut. Sanford, Barbachev or Sundqvist need demotion to be compliant. If the Flames traded for either Barbachev or Sundqvist, the Blues would need to take back around 450 and 950k respectively at least to fit in Flames cap once demoting Froese. Should we do Ritchie and Phillips for Barbachev? I would prefer Sundqvist but Ritchie wouldn’t be enough and the next closest would be Dube who costs too much for The Blues. Maybe add in a third round pick for Salary retention on Sundqvist? Just thinking aloud.

Well the idea may be there, the offer is nuts. Tkachuk is young, a skilled player already with good results and intangibles. He has also been primarily healthy and currently is on an ok contract for next season. Yes Monahan had a down year, but has a cap friendly contract for 2 years. He also wants a 1st round pick? The 3 for an often and currently serious (neck needing surgery) injury a with 10 mil cap hit who openly requested a trade? No thank you. Tkachuk is close in value to Eichel, Monahan is not just a cap dump candidate and a 1st round pick? No way. I would expect Eichel plus for Tkachuk and Monahan without including a first from Calgary.

Big RHS power forward with a G, assist and a few big hits in his first BOA game who can skate, good hands and good hockey sense? Sounds like someone the Flames have needed for a while. One year of Walker Dueher in the AHL for extra seasoning and we could end up with a really solid piece in a couple years.

The allowed offer sheet could be interesting depending on what happens this season. No Gaudreau extension, no playoffs, no real success, it wouldn’t surprise me to see this done although we would need to qualify him at least which he might take which is a raise from his current 7. I guess we will see what happens, but I won’t be surprised if he is no longer a Flame with or without Gaudreau next season.

I get the whole balance thing and that is mostly my point. How can you have balance is you have 2 players eating a quarter of your salary cap? I agree that the Flames are LW heavy and could afford to move out one of Gaudreau, Tkachuk or Mangiapane without really missing a beat if it brings back a top C or RW. Brady is a LHS like Matthew and is listed as C/LW. Having both Tkachuk brothers does not create balance. If holding out in order to get more pay is a negotiating tactic, that doesn’t sound like a team leader move for me. Working only for personal benefit to possibly hurt the team does not a captain make.

Yep, Matt is basically saying he will play hardball and is happy to hold out again to get his way. I would be happy to move him for a good return. What would be value for him? Trading with the blues, they only have 1.5 million in cap space, once demoting 1 D man, so would need to send equal cap back as they can’t even sign Thomas. The biggest problem for the trade is that the blues love to give out NTCs. Only players over 5 mil with no NTC are O’Reilly (their Captain), Buchnevich (LSW) and Parayko (RD just re-signed) at least one of whom would need to be included. Tarasenko would be nice, but has an NTC and is an alternate captain. Flames have about 1.8 million in cap space once they send Froese down, likely not enough for a Thomas signing if he is included. Would 2.5 million do for Thomas? Kyrou had better O stats last season and makes 2.8 on their team. So the Flames would have a couple of choices to make a move with the Blues, but would it be worth it? They can trade in a way that uses Flames cap space to allow the Blues to sign Thomas, or take back less cap hit in order to have cap to sign Thomas if he is included. To St. Louis Tkachuk To CGY Buchnevich (5.8) Thomas (RFA) Or Kyrou On the fence with this option as Buchnevich is good, but does it do enough? Ottawa has plenty of cap space, but do they really want to negotiate with 2 Tkachuk brothers? They have over 24 million in space to sign Brady and a 13th. Especially since they can demote a D for a little more, so they could easily carry the Brothers moving forward. Stutzle, Brown and Zub are the contracts up in 2 seasons which could affect the cap. At least 1 would be needed in return and other pieces to balance things out. I am going to spitball an idea, not sure if it would fly but who knows. To Ottawa Tkachuk (7 mil, RFA) LW/RW Ritchie (900k, UFA) RW Phillips (750k, RFA) C minors To Calgary Brown (3.6 mil, 2 UFA) RW Lassi Thomson (863k, 3 RFA) RD minors Conditional 2022 1st round pick (2023) 2022 3rd round pick Sens have the cap, and without Brown have more space in 2 years for Stutzle and Zub, even with the brothers both in the 8-10 range. Ritchie gives them the extra forward with experience for this season. Phillips likely has a better chance with the Sens than Flames due to size and roster. Basically used to balance a bit. Flames get a top 6 RW, an almost ready RD prospect and a couple of picks plus almost 4 mil cap space for future trades. Neither trade is perfect, and some fans will argue Tkachuk is worth more, but Brown is a bargain contract and the Blues have little other choice. Both moves remove a future headache and pain in the wallet, brings back proven talent and young talent. Not sure either one is the way to go.

I think I have made my view clear with all the Eichel talk. M. Tkachuk is up for contract renewal and based off these comments, he will be looking for a raise. A combination of the brothers in the 8-10 mil range without a higher salary cap would handicap the Flames signing other players. For me, less than a tenth of the team should not make almost a quarter of the Salary cap. If Ottawa or St.Louis want to pull a Toronto or Edmonton, go ahead but I don’t want that in Calgary.

The goalies likely for the games and practices. One is going back to Red Deer. Without them, Wolf is the only prospect available in net. College players ineligible for the camp. Basically a way to see what they have without any commitment and backup for Wolf.