bosn111

I understand the criticism of Hanifin against Edmonton in the playoffs and yes he makes mistakes. He was also given a much bigger role this year, and it may be that he wasn’t able to keep up with expectations moving into the second round. Maybe McDavid and Draisaitl just were too good. I am not going to defend the mistakes that Hanifin made but I will bring up some questions that I mentioned in my longer post. Who exactly are you getting to replace Hanifin and how? UFA, the only LD even close are Leddy, DeKeyser, De Haan and Määttä. Hanifin was 10/38/48/+27 in 81 games at 25 years and 4.95 mil. Leddy 31 years 3/21/24/-30 in 75 games at 7 mil. DeKeyser 32 years 0/11/11 in 59 games at 5 mil. De Haan 31 years 4/4/8 in 69 games at 5.4 mil. Määttä at 27 years, 1/7/8 +17 in 66 games at just over 4 mil. You could maybe include Chiarot or Kulak but even then, Hanifin is younger and has better stats than all of them. So you are not replacing Hanifin via UFA. The above players may have similar stats to Hanifin with the Flames, but likely cost more cap wise. Any lower cap (Kulak) likely not at the same level. In stats, Hanifin is top 8 LD in points, 11 in goals, 7 in assists, 12 in p/gp, 5th in +\-, 29 in TOI and 31 in cap hit. Any active players that have similar stats: Werenski far worse +\- and double the cap hit, Shea Theodore higher cap hit, No way are you getting Josi, Hedman, Toews, Hughes. Krug, Chabot, Heiskanen and Reilly won’t fit in the cap. Those D who seem to fit with similar stats would cost more to acquire and may or may not provide any better results. Forsling and Chychrun as examples. I am happy to listen to suggestions about improving over moving Hanifin but it can’t cause cap issues, cost more than the upgrade is worth and needs to be a proven player (Not Valimaki should have the skills to do better for example). If you have a suggestion that is logical and makes sense, then I am listening. I am not seeing it at this time.

I have been quiet on here for a while. I must say that there is some interesting discussion, but also stuff I don’t agree with. One thing that I a notice is a lot of pipe dreams that miss out on the reality of doing business, running a team, etc. with saying “do this and figure out the rest later”. This neither works in business, hockey or personal life. You can’t just make an average salary and choose to buy a Ferrari by saying, I will figure the money side of it later. Don’t forget insurance, gas, license plates, somewhere to keep it safe, house cost, food…. The Flames currently have committed 55,575,000 towards the cap. This is committed to 12 players. CapFriendly shows a cap limit of 82,500,000 so the Flames have just under 27,000,000 to split between 11 players. That can go up to 28,500,000 if Valimaki goes back to AHL. Flames have 3 of their top 4 offensive players needing new contracts in Gaudreau, Tkachuk and Mangiapane. Also 1 top 4 D man, 3 bottom 6 forwards and 3 6/7/8 D. I keep seeing people talking about how Valimaki is ready to step into top 4 D, even though he hasn’t actually shown that. With Stockton, one of the most offensive teams in the AHL, he had 2 goals and 18 points in 35 games with a +1 rating. In 6 playoff games he had 1 assist and a even rating to this point. Not exactly taking the league by storm. He was cut from the big team because he wasn’t doing enough to stick. I simply do not see how he is still the heir apparent at this time. That doesn’t mean he won’t make the NHL and be good, I just don’t see him currently taking a spot from any of the top 4. Kylington had better offensive stats in the AHL than Valimaki on a less potent team, and depending on the season had similar D stats. He had much better stats playing in the NHL with 9 goals and 31 points with +34. In playoffs 1 goal, 3 points and +5. Kylington is due a solid raise, though as RFA, he may get a show me the consistency contract. 1 year x 2 million. I don’t think Jarnkrok really had enough time to gel, nor had the correct line mates for his style. The Family/town connection with him, Lindholm and Markstrom cannot be denied. I would not be surprised to see him back at a discount for this reason. 2 year x 2 million. I think Gudbranson comes back. Likely tired of moving and his role is defined here. More term likely brings back lower $$, especially with modified NMC. Get the cap under 2.5 per using term of 4-5 years 3,3,2.5,2,2 takes him to 35 knowing he isn’t moving again for a while. Zadorov likely a different situation. I don’t think he takes the same discount so he is likely gone. I think Valimaki fits well here on the third line with Gudbranson. Similar to Tanev with Kylington, it gives a stable vet to teach him what it takes to be a regular, while covering to let him learn from mistakes. With Tanev out, I bring back Stone at league minimum. It is hard to beat Stone as a 7 D man. He can hold the fort until Tanev is healthy. Hanifin and Andersson play well together. Still both young at only 25 and they are both improving. Would it be nice to get an upgrade? Sure. But at what cost? Hanifin 10 goals, 48 points +27 regular season. Torched by the oilers in playoffs. Chychrun played half season, 7 goals, 21 points -20. Some will say “ya but Arizona”. Salary is only 350 difference, same length and Hanifin costs no assets to acquire. Chychrun would be expensive in assets. No UFA D in the same category. Leddy from St loo is closest offensively but -30 and 6 years older and likely higher cap hit. While Lewis and Ritchie are good foot soldiers in the trenches, they just don’t bring what the team needs to compete with the speed of guys like McDavid, Bennett, MacKinnon and many of the young up and comers. They don’t really bring toughness either because Ritchie is rarely on the ice and rarely does anything when he is. Nothing against either of them, just not the type of players that change the game. Rather have a young guy to bring energy than just grind the boards. Walker Duehr maybe. Issue with Mangiapane and Toffoli is that they are both shooters. We have seen how it works when C and wing are both shooters with a pass first wing (top line) but we do not have a playmaker C who can distribute the puck to both Mange and Toffee. They need to be split onto different lines to work better. Mange did better before playing with Toff since he was the only shooter. Maybe try Mange with Jarnkrok and Coleman who are both more balanced grinders. I think Backlund and Toffoli could work together if they had a more playmaker LW. D responsibility but with a passer and shooter would be an upgrade. Give Pelletier a shot here? Maybe a smaller line, but more balanced. I appreciate Dube but think he is the odd man out. Not the right passer for Toffoli, not hard enough on the boards, needs space to skate. I see him similar to Bennett as playing in the east where it is more open would be better for him. I also see Monahan being moved for cap reasons. At 34 I don’t see Lucic retiring unless his body is more broken than appears. Without salary retention, I don’t see other teams taking him without sending bad salary back. With so much movement, it is difficult to see Tkachuk, Gaudreau and Mangiapane all back without some big moves. Unless the team can move Dube, Monahan and likely someone else, there simply won’t be enough cap space for the 3. Rumour is that Dubois wants to play in a bigger market. Would the Flames count? Could PLD at C, move Backlund and fill RW be enough for letting Tkachuk go? Salary cap reasons only, not wanting to lose / trade him but sacrifices may be needed. Gaudreau / Lindholm / Toffoli Mangiapane / Dubois / xx Pelletier / Jarnkrok / Coleman Duehr / Ruzicka / Lucic or Gaudreau / Lindholm/ Tkachuk Pelletier / Dubois / Toffoli ?? / Ruzicka / Coleman Duehr / Jarnkrok / Lucic Or something like that. Not sure, just thinking things through.

Johnny with the D

As the commentators said, Dallas PP revolves around Klingberg. Big loss for them there. Andersson will hurt but not as much.

I meant Klingberg should get extra penalty for instigator. Sounds like both are getting game misconducts. Raffl got an extra unsportsmanlike minor.

Klingberg with the instigator against Andersson? He dropped the gloves and grabbed Andersson before Rasmus even considered fighting.

So Edmonton gets LA. Will Edmonton hold off LA for Home ice? Minnesota and St.Louis, but who gets Home ice? Nashville and Dallas fighting for position so don’t know who we get yet. Can Flames retain home ice in later rounds by holding off St.Louis and Minnesota? Florida gets Pittsburg or Washington Carolina gets Boston or Tampa. Can Carolina hold off New York for Home ice in later rounds? Even Florida and Colorado fighting for Presidents trophy so no meaningless games for playoff bound teams yet.

If Dallas beats Vegas tonight, both they and Nashville clinch. Vegas would no longer be able to catch Dallas in points (5 points back with 2 games remaining), would still be able to tie Nashville in points at 94, Tie for Regulation wins but Nashville holds the edge in overall wins. A Vegas win tonight keeps both their, and Vancouver’s hopes alive.

With clinching the division, but no chance of catching Colorado, what motivation do they really have for the last 4 games? Gaudreau and Lindholm May both press for 40 goals. A few other personal stats. Vladar likely makes at least 2 starts now to rest Markstrom a little, but not too much. Colorado and Florida both pushing for best regular season. Most of the east still playing for positions and pacific division still playing to make the playoffs. It seems like the Flames now have the least motivation to finish the last 4 games.

Dallas didn’t get it done last night. They should be tired tonight hopefully. It is in the hands of the Flames now. Vegas pulled closer to Dallas as Washington could not win. The east is just jockeying for position while the west may come down to the wire just to get in. Oilers sitting at 96 points haven’t clinched. There are still 4 spots open. (Closer to 2 but officially 4)

Any win by the Flames or loss by the Oilers and the Flames clinch. Dallas beating Edmonton and Washington beating Vegas would almost guarantee, not quite, that Vegas misses out on playoffs.

It drops extra because the Flames won in regulation. If the Flames had won in overtime, it would have still been 2 because the regulation wins tie breaker would have been tied and need to move to the next tie breaker which is total wins. With the regulation win, a tie in points will now go to the Flames so 1.5. It is odd that it works in that way, but yeah. It is why things were so confusing earlier in this thread.

You are correct TD. I missed that when I posted last night. I repeated what the commentators said. Thank you for catching this. Magic number is 1.5

Magic number is now 2 to clinch the division.

Flames can do no worse than 2nd in the pacific so guaranteed home ice in the first round. Magic number to clinch the division is 3.0.

Need to stop trying to make highlight reel blind passes and just make a good, simple pass. Tkachuk wants to make the fancy play every shift, and Lindholm decided to follow suit.

No change in the magic numbers for Calgary. Colorado only needs 2 points to clinch the Western conference. Will they rest players to be ready for playoffs or keep up intensity? Vegas, Vancouver, and Winnipeg can still numerically make the playoffs so the race remains tight. In the east, it is almost complete for who is in the playoffs, magic numbers for Boston and Washington are .5 and 2 respectively, just need to determine final position. Lots of ability to move around.

With LA losing last night, clinch magic number is now .5 since LA can only hit 100 points and Flames win tie via Regulation Wins. A win tonight against Vegas, or any win going forward, would guarantee top 2 in the Pacific division. Still some work to do to clinch the division.

Sadly it is officially 1.5 to Clinch playoffs still. With 2 OT loss by Calgary and Vegas win out, regulation wins would be tied, would go to ROW which Vegas would be ahead. However if Vegas loses even 1 game, or Flames win 1 then they clinch. So the number at this time is slightly complex depending on situation.

TD, that is true with Vegas, but LA can also only get to 102 and they don’t have enough games to make up the regulation difference. So the magic number now changed to LA stats rather than Vegas. If both Vegas and LA win out the season, they end up tied and Vegas wins the regulation tie breaker. If Flames get 5 more points in that time to also hit 102, for a 3 way tie, Vegas would come first in the tie breaker, Calgary second and LA third. So the number in this case is 2.5. Ideally Calgary gets at least a 3.0 differential which would guarantee 2nd in the Pacific ahead of both LA and Vegas. Edmonton has been winning recently so yes, that number remains 6.

Clinch magic number is now 2.5. LA and Vegas can both hit 102 max, meaning Flames need a 5 point differential. With only 8 games remaining LA is 10 regulation wins behind Calgary so no way they can match that tie breaker even if they win out the season. (This was what I saw the other day… oops) Division remains 6.0 at this time.

Sorry my math was slightly off. There are only a couple of situations where Edmonton could overtake Calgary for the regulation wins tie breaker, it involves the Flames losing almost all remaining games in overtime. Edmonton needs to win 6 games in regulation of their final 10 games to pass the Flames for that tie breaker. Flames are currently 5 regulation wins up. In the case that the Flames went 0-5-6 in the final 11, they would end up tied and oilers would win tie breaker. For Vegas, they would need to win out their last 9 games with Flames not winning another game in Regulation to tie the regulation wins tie-breaker. So to create a tie situation, Flames would need to lose 7 in overtime and lose 4 outright for that situation to even come into play. Even 1 game going to overtime or lost in regulation and Vegas could no longer win that tie breaker. So officially possible, but really unlikely.

Thank you for adding in TD. I think your numbers are half game high due to tie breaker. As long as Flames end up with equal points to Edmonton and Vegas, they win the tie breaker based on more regulation wins. Getting that extra point would be nice, but is unnecessary to clinch. I could be wrong though.

After last night the Flames now need 7 points to clinch a playoff spot (they hold the tie breaker for regulation wins over Vegas, 9 reg wins ahead with Knights having 9 games remaining) meaning 3.5 games. Down to 14 points to clinch Division over Edmonton (again tie breaker goes to Calgary, 5 reg wins ahead with Oilers only having 10 games remaining) so 7.0 games.

Flames win, Knights lose. Max points for Oilers remains 109 but Knights are now down to 102. So being at 93 points Flames are 9/10 points from clinching playoffs and 16/17 from clinching the division depending on tie breakers. Colorado has clinched a playoff spot.