Realistic (and unrealistic) Trades - 2024 Edition

[conundrumed]

Exceptional story. Apologies to those that don't understand ReadOnly/Readerview. It's the page-looking thing beside the url on a computer address bar, or the Aa icon on your device.

Great read. Bet you didn't expect Blake Coleman. lol

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/3398351/2022/07/04/flames-johnny-gaudreau-draft/

[travel_dude]

Confirmed by the Blue Jackets and NHL.

[Thebrewcrew]

Moved to other thread 

[travel_dude]

1 hour ago, Thebrewcrew said:

Moved to other thread 

 

Yeah, I didn't want to bring this up in the original JH thread.  As it was, we were unsure whether we should even talk about it.  We can leave the original JH thread as it was to those that regularly posted to it.  This entire business makes talking about hockey so small.  

[phoenix66]

5 hours ago, conundrumed said:

Exceptional story. Apologies to those that don't understand ReadOnly/Readerview. It's the page-looking thing beside the url on a computer address bar, or the Aa icon on your device.

Great read. Bet you didn't expect Blake Coleman. lol

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/3398351/2022/07/04/flames-johnny-gaudreau-draft/

I use archive.md just paste the link and get past any paywall... Exceptional story 

[cberg]

Keep seeing reports from different writers of rumoured trades, you know, the regulars… St Louis tried to get Weegar, before the offer sheets,  Kadri ‘open’ to something more east of here, but not the TML, Anderson anywhere.  You have to wonder how much truth behind the scenes or just writer fabricating lies for clickbait?  Conroy has said nothing more till he can evaluate what he has… is that preseason, 20 games, TDL?  I’m betting if 1-2 of the new guys slams it out of the park in preseason it could lead to an early, early trade.  Of course, if another, competitive team has a devastating injury to a key player it could also mean an early trade?
 

 

[robrob74]

1 hour ago, cberg said:

Keep seeing reports from different writers of rumoured trades, you know, the regulars… St Louis tried to get Weegar, before the offer sheets,  Kadri ‘open’ to something more east of here, but not the TML, Anderson anywhere.  You have to wonder how much truth behind the scenes or just writer fabricating lies for clickbait?  Conroy has said nothing more till he can evaluate what he has… is that preseason, 20 games, TDL?  I’m betting if 1-2 of the new guys slams it out of the park in preseason it could lead to an early, early trade.  Of course, if another, competitive team has a devastating injury to a key player it could also mean an early trade?
 

 

Ya, it's a tough one. I think  sometimes they're just stating the obvious. Flames are in a rebuild, I wonder if they go full rebuild? Then suddenly all of them think the flames are open to trading all the vets.

[conundrumed]

1 hour ago, robrob74 said:

Ya, it's a tough one. I think  sometimes they're just stating the obvious. Flames are in a rebuild, I wonder if they go full rebuild? Then suddenly all of them think the flames are open to trading all the vets.

That's how I view it.

It's not a race.

We need a "Rumour Roundup" thread. lol

All the bs rumours in one place. A place to castrate them in bulk. lol

[travel_dude]

1 hour ago, conundrumed said:

That's how I view it.

It's not a race.

We need a "Rumour Roundup" thread. lol

All the bs rumours in one place. A place to castrate them in bulk. lol

Good idea.

[The_People1]

DEFERRED STRUCTURE...?????

 

Never knew this existed but essentially, Seth Jarvis would be paid at the expiry of his 8-year-deal... in other words, the money after the contract is done doesn't count against the cap.  Wow, what?

 

So, is this a cap circumvention method moving forward?  Draisaitl for $1-mil-per X 8-years and then get a one time $100-mil paycheck after 8-years?

 

https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/news/sources-hurricanes-and-seth-jarvis-agree-to-63-2-million-contract-with-unique-deferred-structure

[robrob74]

19 minutes ago, The_People1 said:

DEFERRED STRUCTURE...?????

 

Never knew this existed but essentially, Seth Jarvis would be paid at the expiry of his 8-year-deal... in other words, the money after the contract is done doesn't count against the cap.  Wow, what?

 

So, is this a cap circumvention method moving forward?  Draisaitl for $1-mil-per X 8-years and then get a one time $100-mil paycheck after 8-years?

 

https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/news/sources-hurricanes-and-seth-jarvis-agree-to-63-2-million-contract-with-unique-deferred-structure

yup, it sounds iffy to me. Like all those other deals that suddenly became illegal in which I think Jersey lost a pick for. If I were them, I'd sue the NHL lol as this seems a lot like that. I get that probably isn't possible or plausible.

[Thebrewcrew]

3 hours ago, The_People1 said:

DEFERRED STRUCTURE...?????

 

Never knew this existed but essentially, Seth Jarvis would be paid at the expiry of his 8-year-deal... in other words, the money after the contract is done doesn't count against the cap.  Wow, what?

 

So, is this a cap circumvention method moving forward?  Draisaitl for $1-mil-per X 8-years and then get a one time $100-mil paycheck after 8-years?

 

https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/news/sources-hurricanes-and-seth-jarvis-agree-to-63-2-million-contract-with-unique-deferred-structure

The player has to agree to that type of structure. Sure, Draisaitl could sign that type of deal? But why should he?

 

When you've earned the largest deal in NHL history, like Draisaitl will. You don't need to do the team any favors. That's not me hating on EDM, I'd feel that way if he was playing for Dallas. The hockey mentality of taking less is very flawed IMO. No other sport does it, the stars get paid, it's the middle-bottom of the roster players that have to take less. That's how it should be. 

[The_People1]

58 minutes ago, Thebrewcrew said:

The player has to agree to that type of structure. Sure, Draisaitl could sign that type of deal? But why should he?

 

When you've earned the largest deal in NHL history, like Draisaitl will. You don't need to do the team any favors. That's not me hating on EDM, I'd feel that way if he was playing for Dallas. The hockey mentality of taking less is very flawed IMO. No other sport does it, the stars get paid, it's the middle-bottom of the roster players that have to take less. That's how it should be. 

 

I was being a bit extreme with my example but Draisaitl can still sign the biggest contract in NHL history + deferred money.  So like for example, $10-mil-per for 8-years and then a $50-mil payout at the end... if that's not enough, then how about $75-mil payout?  Maybe $100-mil?  There's a dollar amount that makes it worth it for Draisaitl.  He just needs to name the number because EDM needs to get both him, Bouchard, and McDavid to all fit under the cap for the next 8 to 9 years to keep their window open.

 

I assume deferred money means deferred cap hit.  The cap will be applied in year 9 after the player is gone (somebody please tell me this is so).  The Oilers have nothing to lose.  They might as well go full rebuild in 8 years anyways and then use the deferred cap hit to reach the cap floor while they stink it out for 5 years in the basement.

[Thebrewcrew]

31 minutes ago, The_People1 said:

 

I was being a bit extreme with my example but Draisaitl can still sign the biggest contract in NHL history + deferred money.  So like for example, $10-mil-per for 8-years and then a $50-mil payout at the end... if that's not enough, then how about $75-mil payout?  Maybe $100-mil?  There's a dollar amount that makes it worth it for Draisaitl.  He just needs to name the number because EDM needs to get both him, Bouchard, and McDavid to all fit under the cap for the next 8 to 9 years to keep their window open.

 

I assume deferred money means deferred cap hit.  The cap will be applied in year 9 after the player is gone (somebody please tell me this is so).  The Oilers have nothing to lose.  They might as well go full rebuild in 8 years anyways and then use the deferred cap hit to reach the cap floor while they stink it out for 5 years in the basement.

It's been in the CBA for a long time. It just hasn't been used.

 

If Draisaitl agrees to it, good for him and the Oilers. 

 

Realistically, I think it's going to be a buyout proof contract. Like Huberdeau's but for significantly more money.

[robrob74]

6 minutes ago, Thebrewcrew said:

It's been in the CBA for a long time. It just hasn't been used.

 

If Draisaitl agrees to it, good for him and the Oilers. 

 

Realistically, I think it's going to be a buyout proof contract. Like Huberdeau's but for significantly more money.

I guess that is how Brown's contract works? But his is based on the amount of games played? Maybe it could be like, if you reach 1000 points by the end of the contract you can gain a bonus? 

[Thebrewcrew]

1 minute ago, robrob74 said:

I guess that is how Brown's contract works? But his is based on the amount of games played? Maybe it could be like, if you reach 1000 points by the end of the contract you can gain a bonus? 

Brown's contract was able to be bonus heavy because he missed a significant chunk of the previous season. 

 

I think Draisaitl's deal will be 800k-1 mill in salary during the hockey season, with a hefty bonus paid every July 1. 

[robrob74]

1 hour ago, Thebrewcrew said:

Brown's contract was able to be bonus heavy because he missed a significant chunk of the previous season. 

 

I think Draisaitl's deal will be 800k-1 mill in salary during the hockey season, with a hefty bonus paid every July 1. 

many times that bonus counts against current cap, but to have it after cap seems different or the Jarvis contract is one of the first used in this way? I dunno. Maybe the amount makes it more noticeable and other contacts have worked that way but if sizes get too much that drops cap hit, maybe the league will take more notice!

?

[conundrumed]

2 hours ago, robrob74 said:

many times that bonus counts against current cap, but to have it after cap seems different or the Jarvis contract is one of the first used in this way? I dunno. Maybe the amount makes it more noticeable and other contacts have worked that way but if sizes get too much that drops cap hit, maybe the league will take more notice!

?

I believe Jarvis' is the first. Jarvis' isn't saving a lot of cap. $400,000/yr. I'd be surprised if many players would want a deal like that. Who wants to get paid later when you can get paid now?

Perhaps I'm missing something as to why Jarvis' camp is okay with it.

Whomever Draisaitl signs with, I'm interested to see how it's structured. It will no doubt be his last contract as a player.

[MP5029]

I see Peyton Krebs is still unsigned.  I’m not suggesting an offer sheet but maybe he’s not willing to resign in Buf, if so ma trade option for Cgy?

 

if not, he's far too young to be UFA and still 2 years of NHL seasons away from it.

 

anyways would he be worth Conroy going after? What’s his value in both trade and contract extension? 

[cross16]

Deferred contracts have been around in the NHL, and in most of the pro sports leagues, for decades. This is not a new concept it's just the first time an NHL team has done it in the cap era but in the 90s this was more common. It's how Lemieux wound up as a part owner of the Penguins. 

 

See what happens but i'm not very convinced this is going to open up floodgates. Deferred money is a tool that teams and owners derive the primary benefit of, with risk to the player. Plus, the Canes did all of this to save 400K on their cap so it's like they cracked some magical code here. Because the NHL takes into account present vs future value, the structure of the deal would need to be drastic for a team to generate a significant cap savings. 

 

I'd be surprised if you see a star player do something like this. Ohtani did it this in MLB but what should be pointed out is that Ohtani makes up his deferrals in off field endorsements so the risk made sense to him. I don't think you going to see a lot of NHL players in that boat. 

[The_People1]

1 hour ago, cross16 said:

Deferred contracts have been around in the NHL, and in most of the pro sports leagues, for decades. This is not a new concept it's just the first time an NHL team has done it in the cap era but in the 90s this was more common. It's how Lemieux wound up as a part owner of the Penguins. 

 

See what happens but i'm not very convinced this is going to open up floodgates. Deferred money is a tool that teams and owners derive the primary benefit of, with risk to the player. Plus, the Canes did all of this to save 400K on their cap so it's like they cracked some magical code here. Because the NHL takes into account present vs future value, the structure of the deal would need to be drastic for a team to generate a significant cap savings. 

 

I'd be surprised if you see a star player do something like this. Ohtani did it this in MLB but what should be pointed out is that Ohtani makes up his deferrals in off field endorsements so the risk made sense to him. I don't think you going to see a lot of NHL players in that boat. 

 

Does deferred money count against the cap at a deferred point in time?

[cross16]

58 minutes ago, The_People1 said:

 

Does deferred money count against the cap at a deferred point in time?

 

No, it counts during the contract time frame. 

 

All this strategy did was change the value of the contract. The deferred money still counts against the cap it just does at a lower value because a dollar today is worth more than a dollar in the future. So you apply that calculation to the deferred money and it lowers the value of the contract and thus the cap hit. Why it sounds like a big benefit, but only led to a 400K drop in the cap hit. 

 

But the deferred money is not taken out of the cap hit

[conundrumed]

20 hours ago, cross16 said:

But the deferred money is not taken out of the cap hit

 

This part confuses me. Likely because I have the IQ of a reasonably attractive nightstand table.

Is that bonus a cap hit in year 9?

Apologies @cross16, I could likely easily look it up. I just trust you more than the internet. Well, not to re-wire my basement advice, but the matter at hand. lol

I know you're a fan of Tulsky, so assume that you're all over this.😬

This isn't new, but 1st. Feel free to correct me.

 

[cross16]

10 minutes ago, conundrumed said:

 

This part confuses me. Likely because I have the IQ of a reasonably attractive nightstand table.

Is that bonus a cap hit in year 9?

Apologies @cross16, I could likely easily look it up. I just trust you more than the internet. Well, not to re-wire my basement advice, but the matter at hand. lol

I know you're a fan of Tulsky, so assume that you're all over this.😬

This isn't new, but 1st. Feel free to correct me.

 

 

No. no cap charged outside the duration of the deal because that deferred money is used to calculate the cap hit. Cap hits are always determined by total value of the contract divided by the total years. There is no mechanism, at least one that hasn't been found yet, to have money not included in a cap hit. 

 

What happened here, is the Canes changed the value of the contract. On the surface it's a 63.2 Million dollar deal over 8 years which math would show you should be a 7.9 mill cap hit. Catch here is that they chose to defer $15.6 million and the NHL says that a dollar in the future is worth less than today (they have a rate for this in the CBA). That drops the value of the contract to $59.36 and that over 8 years is a 7.42 cap hit or a savings of around 400K. 

 

That's all this deferral did, it changed the value of the contract used to calculate the cap hit but no changes to how the cap hit was calculated and no changes to how this hits the Canes cap. Just saves them 400K a season against the cap. 

 

This is the first one done in the cap era yes. 

 

Forbes does a good job breaking this out https://www.forbes.com/sites/carolschram/2024/09/01/the-carolina-hurricanes-get-creative-with-seth-jarvis-contract-structure/

[robrob74]

1 hour ago, cross16 said:

 

No. no cap charged outside the duration of the deal because that deferred money is used to calculate the cap hit. Cap hits are always determined by total value of the contract divided by the total years. There is no mechanism, at least one that hasn't been found yet, to have money not included in a cap hit. 

 

What happened here, is the Canes changed the value of the contract. On the surface it's a 63.2 Million dollar deal over 8 years which math would show you should be a 7.9 mill cap hit. Catch here is that they chose to defer $15.6 million and the NHL says that a dollar in the future is worth less than today (they have a rate for this in the CBA). That drops the value of the contract to $59.36 and that over 8 years is a 7.42 cap hit or a savings of around 400K. 

 

That's all this deferral did, it changed the value of the contract used to calculate the cap hit but no changes to how the cap hit was calculated and no changes to how this hits the Canes cap. Just saves them 400K a season against the cap. 

 

This is the first one done in the cap era yes. 

 

Forbes does a good job breaking this out https://www.forbes.com/sites/carolschram/2024/09/01/the-carolina-hurricanes-get-creative-with-seth-jarvis-contract-structure/

still seems like voodoo math, lol. A dollar today is worth more than a dollar tomorrow... shouldn't all contracts work that way? Or do they? Still seems odd.