2022 Offseason

[cross16]

1 minute ago, JTech780 said:

Yes and if it does go to arbitration and he gets more than $9m it really doesn’t change anything for the Flames. He ends up with 1 year bonfire UFA either way $9m vs $10m isn’t going to effect his trade value.

 

ya it's a small leverage gain at no risk for the Flames so it makes sense. I'm certainly not trying to sell this as a game changing move as it's more procedural than anything but I do think it made sense for the Flames to do. 

[phoenix66]

19 minutes ago, cross16 said:

 

ya it's a small leverage gain at no risk for the Flames so it makes sense. I'm certainly not trying to sell this as a game changing move as it's more procedural than anything but I do think it made sense for the Flames to do. 

ya basically in a nutshell, he cant sign the QO, he cant sign an offer sheet and it extends their negotiation window to get the deal done .. takes 2 weapons away from his agent .. i forget too, cant they ask for a 2 year too?  or is it the player that can elect a 2 year 

[Thebrewcrew]

3 minutes ago, phoenix66 said:

ya basically in a nutshell, he cant sign the QO, he cant sign an offer sheet and it extends their negotiation window to get the deal done .. takes 2 weapons away from his agent .. i forget too, cant they ask for a 2 year too?  or is it the player that can elect a 2 year 

I don't believe that 2yrs is an option because it would buy a UFA year.

 

If Tkachuk had previously signed a 2yr deal rather than 3, then it could be a 1 or 2yr deal

[cross16]

Correct. Tkachuk can only receive a 1 year award in arbitration because he is 1 year away from UFA. 

 

it's not likely relevant anyway as it's the party who did not elect arbitration that gets to pick the term.  Tkachuk wouldn't likely take a 2 year award even if it were an option, which it isn't. 

[robrob74]

22 minutes ago, cross16 said:

Correct. Tkachuk can only receive a 1 year award in arbitration because he is 1 year away from UFA. 

 

it's not likely relevant anyway as it's the party who did not elect arbitration that gets to pick the term.  Tkachuk wouldn't likely take a 2 year award even if it were an option, which it isn't. 

 

doesnt that kind of play into his hands? 
 

i get Tkachuk didn't elect arbitration but I guess it just means he'd go one year regardless if we didn't elect it. 
 

 

[cross16]

20 minutes ago, robrob74 said:

 

doesnt that kind of play into his hands? 
 

i get Tkachuk didn't elect arbitration but I guess it just means he'd go one year regardless if we didn't elect it. 
 

 

 

Not really as it's really no different than him just taking his qualifying offer which i'm almost certain he would have done this week had they not got a longer term deal. 

[LouCifer]

I look at the move as indicative that there was a real belief Chucky was going to sign his QO. I’m not going to invest in the idea that things are moving along well and they just needed extra time. As far as I’m concerned, this move forces Chucky to negotiate his salary with BT instead of taking a hard stance, because if it goes to arbitration it’s out of his control anyway. 

[travel_dude]

All in all, we are left again wondering whether a player will be here the end of next year.  This is not quite the same as last summer with Gaudreau, but it's not that far off.  The difference is if we can't work a deal, we have to trade him.  Mange is a little more promising.  He shouldn't be as difficult to sign if we are willing to pay him the going rate.  Kylington is less of a risk because we won't be walking him to UFA.  He gets a reasonable award or a deal from us.  Or we trade him. 

 

 

[JTech780]

As annoying as Eric Francis is, he is right in the fact that if Tkachuk doesn’t want to sign long term here, it has nothing to do with money. Tkachuk most likely isn’t going to get more money anywhere else, Calgary is in a position where if they want to stay competitive they pretty much have to offer him the Gaudreau deal. Tkachuk also has to realize that without Gaudreau here his ability to recreate this season has to be decrease significantly, thus meaning he would be negotiating next season from a lesser stance.

 

I think this is about him forcing his way out of Calgary.

 

Calgary’s best chance of recouping any sort of return now, is to let teams negotiate with Tkachuk in this window to see if a deal can be worked out. Tkachuk at 8 years is worth a lot more than Tkachuk at 1.

[The_People1]

28 minutes ago, JTech780 said:

As annoying as Eric Francis is, he is right in the fact that if Tkachuk doesn’t want to sign long term here, it has nothing to do with money. Tkachuk most likely isn’t going to get more money anywhere else, Calgary is in a position where if they want to stay competitive they pretty much have to offer him the Gaudreau deal. Tkachuk also has to realize that without Gaudreau here his ability to recreate this season has to be decrease significantly, thus meaning he would be negotiating next season from a lesser stance.

 

I think this is about him forcing his way out of Calgary.

 

Calgary’s best chance of recouping any sort of return now, is to let teams negotiate with Tkachuk in this window to see if a deal can be worked out. Tkachuk at 8 years is worth a lot more than Tkachuk at 1.

 

Ya but the catch is teams will give the value equal to Tkachuk at 1 instead of the Tkachuk at 8 knowing the Flames lose him next summer.  For example NJ can just wait one year to sign him.  They are in no rush to win this season anyways.

[JTech780]

10 minutes ago, The_People1 said:

 

Ya but the catch is teams will give the value equal to Tkachuk at 1 instead of the Tkachuk at 8 knowing the Flames lose him next summer.  For example NJ can just wait one year to sign him.  They are in no rush to win this season anyways.

Unless there is multiple suitors. Not to mention that if the plan is to stay competitive NJ isn’t in the running anyways.

 

I think Tkachuk is the type of personality where he is going to want to go somewhere where he can be on the big stage. I could also see him wanting to go to St. Louis to be close to home. I do wonder if Arizona is a team that would have interest to him just because that’s where he was born and I could totally see him and Matthews looking to go to Arizona and sort of making an NBA type super team. 
 

I do think there will be plenty of suitors either way, just because he is a unique talent, and teams will want to get ahead of the market and try and secure him before he goes to free agency.

 

 

[The_People1]

6 minutes ago, JTech780 said:

Unless there is multiple suitors. Not to mention that if the plan is to stay competitive NJ isn’t in the running anyways.

 

I think Tkachuk is the type of personality where he is going to want to go somewhere where he can be on the big stage. I could also see him wanting to go to St. Louis to be close to home. I do wonder if Arizona is a team that would have interest to him just because that’s where he was born and I could totally see him and Matthews looking to go to Arizona and sort of making an NBA type super team. 
 

I do think there will be plenty of suitors either way, just because he is a unique talent, and teams will want to get ahead of the market and try and secure him before he goes to free agency.

 

 

 

That NJ roster looks so ready though.  Just missing Tkachuk.

 

Added Palat and Marino.  Luke Hughes could play.  Nemec could play.  Hamilton healthy.  That D is looking good if not this season then the next.

 

Holtz could be rookie of the year candidate.  Mercer-Sharangovic combo was a promising young shut down duo for them.  Will only get better.

[JTech780]

2 minutes ago, The_People1 said:

 

That NJ roster looks so ready though.  Just missing Tkachuk.

 

Added Palat and Marino.  Luke Hughes could play.  Nemec could play.  Hamilton healthy.  That D is looking good if not this season then the next.

 

Holtz could be rookie of the year candidate.  Mercer-Sharangovic combo was a promising young shut down duo for them.  Will only get better.

I meant that there probably isn’t the type of pieces the Flames would want in return for Tkachuk if the plan is for Calgary to stay competitive.

[JTech780]

I will say that if there was a team out there willing to sign Tkachuk to a 1 year $8.4m deal with an extension in the bag, the Flames couldn’t match it because they wouldn’t be able to trade him and he would walk for nothing and the compensation would only be a 1st, a 2nd and a 3rd.

[MP5029]

I think this thing with Tachuck is just that BT didn’t want any outside interference and show Tachuck he’s committed to him.

 

also, this makes things very simple sign a long term deal or go to arbitration…simply put, Tachuck’s intentions will be known shortly….

 

good for BT, now he can’t  be taken advantage of likE he was with Gaudreau.

[conundrumed]

Is there any chance that the arb filing pages can be clipped and made into it's own thread? My ADD gets tweaking on these megathreads. This thing is 3 pages already, it should be it's own thread.

But I was glad to read that @cross16 has been precise and correct in how this works.

If it gets to arb, it's 1yr and the minimum is $9mil.

But this should be a stand alone thread with still plenty to discuss. In this thread, other conversations are going to go by the wayside. Just my 2 shillings.

[phoenix66]

8 minutes ago, conundrumed said:

Is there any chance that the arb filing pages can be clipped and made into it's own thread? My ADD gets tweaking on these megathreads. This thing is 3 pages already, it should be it's own thread.

But I was glad to read that @cross16 has been precise and correct in how this works.

If it gets to arb, it's 1yr and the minimum is $9mil.

But this should be a stand alone thread with still plenty to discuss. In this thread, other conversations are going to go by the wayside. Just my 2 shillings.

Actually the minimum is gone too since the QO is now void...they could technically go in at least than 9 

That being said , if it does get to arb I highly doubt the intention is to lowball him..could be the most civil arbitration in history lol 

Now that I've had a chance to digest it, this is a very gutsy but smart move on the flames part. 

No holdout .. no offer sheet.. no one year QO.. and now an actual deadline for him to be signed ..  if they aren't close by deadline they can trade him so that team can negotiate. 

 

Anybody who feels the flames messed up not trading Johnny last year can't be saying this lowers Chuckys trade value now.. 

At the same time .  Let's assume Chucky does want out.. and it makes it to the hearing.. they won't be asking for the moon as that will hinder any chance of being moved ..

 

Personally I think the long deal gets done now .. but if it doesn't , it flushes out the truth that he intended to do a one year and done anyway .. 

I've said before , Brad makes mistakes ..but rarely the same one twice .. 100% tkachuk is Not walking for free .. he'll be traded for a good return or signed to a long term deal by a known date ..

 

 

 

 

[phoenix66]

9 hours ago, cross16 said:

 

Not really as it's really no different than him just taking his qualifying offer which i'm almost certain he would have done this week had they not got a longer term deal. 

You seem to have a handle on the rules.. if they trade him prior to the arbitration, does that cancel the arbitration or does the new team go into it?

[conundrumed]

36 minutes ago, phoenix66 said:

Actually the minimum is gone too since the QO is now void...they could technically go in at least than 9 

That being said , if it does get to arb I highly doubt the intention is to lowball him..could be the most civil arbitration in history lol 

Now that I've had a chance to digest it, this is a very gutsy but smart move on the flames part. 

No holdout .. no offer sheet.. no one year QO.. and now an actual deadline for him to be signed ..  if they aren't close by deadline they can trade him so that team can negotiate. 

 

Anybody who feels the flames messed up not trading Johnny last year can't be saying this lowers Chuckys trade value now.. 

At the same time .  Let's assume Chucky does want out.. and it makes it to the hearing.. they won't be asking for the moon as that will hinder any chance of being moved ..

 

Personally I think the long deal gets done now .. but if it doesn't , it flushes out the truth that he intended to do a one year and done anyway .. 

I've said before , Brad makes mistakes ..but rarely the same one twice .. 100% tkachuk is Not walking for free .. he'll be traded for a good return or signed to a long term deal by a known date ..

 

 

 

 

Not as I understand it. It starts at last year's salary, which was $9mil in actual salary (not cap hit).

And cross will correct me, but it's either because it is in Block 2 of arb filings, or, because it's team elected, not sure which, the starting point of 85% is off the table. The hearing starts at $9mil.

And yes, if he's traded the acquiring team goes to arb or signs him first.

You'd assume that would lessen the return we'd expect by reducing our leverage.

[phoenix66]

8 minutes ago, conundrumed said:

Not as I understand it. It starts at last year's salary, which was $9mil in actual salary (not cap hit).

And cross will correct me, but it's either because it is in Block 2 of arb filings, or, because it's team elected, not sure which, the starting point of 85% is off the table. The hearing starts at $9mil.

And yes, if he's traded the acquiring team goes to arb or signs him first.

You'd assume that would lessen the return we'd expect by reducing our leverage.

I'm not sure about that.. I think the 85 still is ..just because the initial and spirit of the option was for teams to get a players salary down.. maybe a player that they feel the qo is more than their worth . I know it can only be done once in a players career.. and it's only happened once maybe twice .can't even remember the players it was used on . Pretty sure it wasn't Calgary

 

That could be chaotic.. grind to the last minute ..then 5 minutes before , "you've been traded to Buffalo. Have a nice day " lol 

In a worst case, I don't think our leverage drops .. he's a stud player ..anybody trading for him is going to believe they can resign him...  If it affects the return and some team Is making a great offer contingent on talking to him i'm sure the flames will grant it if it's worth it .

Realistically he'd most likely get traded before the hearing..they'll know if they're gonna get it done or not 

 

 

 

 

[conundrumed]

Also, to reinforce what cross said, it's a 1 yr deal. Arbitration can not touch UFA years. It's only for RFA years.

Worst case scenario, it gets to arb, he's awarded $10 for a year, rather than the QO of $9.

But you get closure that he's already decided to test UFA.

In fairness, he has never once said that he's going to be easy to negotiate with.lol

This is a good move by BT. It's not about an offer sheet. At all. There is zero threat of that.

Need closure on Tkacuk's intentions. If the best you got isn't enough oh well.

If it comes down to "trade him", try to do it fast. This is the peak of his value imo.

[conundrumed]

1 minute ago, phoenix66 said:

I'm not sure about that.. I think the 85 still is ..just because the initial and spirit of the option was for teams to get a players salary down.. maybe a player that they feel the qo is more than their worth . I know it can only be done once in a players career.. and it's only happened once maybe twice .can't even remember the players it was used on . Pretty sure it wasn't Calgary

 

That could be chaotic.. grind to the last minute ..then 5 minutes before , "you've been traded to Buffalo. Have a nice day " lol 

In a worst case, I don't think our leverage drops .. he's a stud player ..anybody trading for him is going to believe they can resign him...  If it affects the return and some team Is making a great offer contingent on talking to him i'm sure the flames will grant it if it's worth it .

Realistically he'd most likely get traded before the hearing..they'll know if they're gonna get it done or not 

 

 

 

 

I'm pretty sure it has to do with when you file. File within the Block 1 timeline and 85% is on the table. File in Block 2 after the initial deadline and the 85% becomes 100%.

I could be wrong.

source: Not @cross16 lol

[phoenix66]

3 minutes ago, conundrumed said:

Also, to reinforce what cross said, it's a 1 yr deal. Arbitration can not touch UFA years. It's only for RFA years.

Worst case scenario, it gets to arb, he's awarded $10 for a year, rather than the QO of $9.

But you get closure that he's already decided to test UFA.

In fairness, he has never once said that he's going to be easy to negotiate with.lol

This is a good move by BT. It's not about an offer sheet. At all. There is zero threat of that.

Need closure on Tkacuk's intentions. If the best you got isn't enough oh well.

If it comes down to "trade him", try to do it fast. This is the peak of his value imo.

Exactly . Essentially they've eliminated all his weapons .. no offer sheet (tho I still believe it was a risk) no holdout..  bargain in good faith or tell us you want out ..simple as that 

 

And again ..I believe unless he wants out, they will get this done ..but now we know when (don't know the date yet .but there will be one ) .. just like Johnny the flames aren't here to lowball him.. or disrespect him .they just had an opportunity to install a deadline and they used it..kudos 

[phoenix66]

2 minutes ago, conundrumed said:

I'm pretty sure it has to do with when you file. File within the Block 1 timeline and 85% is on the table. File in Block 2 after the initial deadline and the 85% becomes 100%.

I could be wrong.

source: Not @cross16 lol

Will have to find out ..

That being said it's moot anyway..they aren't doing this to get him under 9 anyway ..

[conundrumed]

1 minute ago, phoenix66 said:

Will have to find out ..

That being said it's moot anyway..they aren't doing this to get him under 9 anyway ..

I don't even wanna think about if this gets to arbitration.