5 Things to Be Contenders

[Flyerfan52]

22 minutes ago, travel_dude said:

 

This team is hard on goalies.  But they have to give back enough to keep the trust of the coach and players.  Elliott had the worse possible matchup in the playoffs (the team in front of him combined with how he played against them all season, especially his record against the Ducks), and that combined with his struggles through almost half a season caused the team to decide to move on.  

 

I don't think FF is happy about the Flyers signing Elliott at all.   

Totally correct. All I can make of signing him to a relatively cheap contract to go with Neuvirth is a very patient Hextall using them as a stopgap for up to 2 years if required as he waits for 1 of Lyon. Hart or Stolarz to prove ready.

There is also the young D prospects in the wings that will need a bit of time to hopefully be top 4 while the younger forwards will also come in.

It seems most of the Flyers fans I talk to are OK with this patience approach as Hex has re-filled an empty pipeline with goalie, D, centers & then wingers while keeping the Flyers respectable. Other than Prorolov (#7) & Patrick (moved from #13 to #2) all those good 1s came without a top 10 pick.

Unlike Pittsburgh, Edmonton, Buffalo & a few others most Philly fans wouldn't accept a full out tank but after years of Homer's incompetance as he tried to qualify @ all costs we do see Hex building our future while still icing a team that's entertaining & win fairly often so as to stay in the hunt.

 

Like Calgary since Kipper Philly has been a graveyard for goaies. I hope Elliott can handle the pressure.

[travel_dude]

22 minutes ago, jjgallow said:

No matter what happens, I don't like our odds of being a true contender with average goaltending.   I think most would agree you need something along the lines of above-average, to elite.

 

I can't even remember the last time we had above average goaltending.  Was that in some of the Kipper years?

What we have never had to prove or disprove the argument is a all of the facets of a playoff team at the same time:

Average to above average goaltending

A top 4D that is truly top 4 compared to top teams

3 good scoring lines and production from the defense

A 4th line that doesn't get the crap kicked out of it regularly

Top 10 PK and PP, combine to at least 100%

Top 10 goal scoring and goals against

 

This is just a random list of things we should strive for.  Doesn't guarantee you a cup final, but it gets you closer to it.  

 

[MAC331]

Really at the end of the day any GM wants to have good options for all positions. BT is familiar with Smith enough to have the confidence he can stabilize our net and bridge us to the quality prospect goalies. I think JJ has beat this "average" goaltending theme to death, if we get a good to great Mike Smith effort we should do well. Lack is on the rebound that only playing time will tell his story for us. The bottom line is the whole team needs to show marked improvement over last season in order for us advance further into the playoffs.

[robrob74]

My take on Smith is that he's a late bloomer, and a solid goalie. It's not a great idea to compare, but I will look at other late bloomers anyway.

 

Roloson was and was a quality goalie until he was 40. 

Brodeur is a guy that played late as well, but not a late bloomer. Some goalies have it in them. 

 

Hiller had health issues which seemed to kill his confidence. 

 

I think we are good good for two years.

[MAC331]

33 minutes ago, robrob74 said:

My take on Smith is that he's a late bloomer, and a solid goalie. It's not a great idea to compare, but I will look at other late bloomers anyway.

 

Roloson was and was a quality goalie until he was 40. 

Brodeur is a guy that played late as well, but not a late bloomer. Some goalies have it in them. 

 

Hiller had health issues which seemed to kill his confidence. 

 

I think we are good good for two years.

I think Smith will be here to kill it while he still can. I am sure he wants to win as much as the next guy that won't get many more opportunities. We may see the best of what Smith has these two seasons.

[The_People1]

BT reportedly visited the idea of getting Smith last summer but opted for Elliot/Johnson.  Not sure what the price was last year but Eric Francis claimed, perhaps, BT didn't want a lockeroom personality like Smith to disrupt the young core.  BT knows Smith well from his Coyotes days.

 

Some may recall Smith would break sticks after bad goals against with the Coyotes and Kelly Hrudy would say, "hey dude, you're not there only one frustrated.  Stop trying to make it like you are the only one who cares about winning."

 

Needless to say, Smith is a hyper intensive competitor which can be a good thing if things are going good.  But if they are not...

[jjgallow]

37 minutes ago, The_People1 said:

Needless to say, Smith is a hyper intensive competitor which can be a good thing if things are going good.  But if they are not...

 

Well then it's supposed to be a good draft year.

[The_People1]

1 hour ago, jjgallow said:

 

Well then it's supposed to be a good draft year.

 

Except, we have no picks.

[jjgallow]

22 minutes ago, The_People1 said:

Except, we have no picks.

 

We can still watch it I guess?  :/

[conundrumed]

6 hours ago, The_People1 said:

BT reportedly visited the idea of getting Smith last summer but opted for Elliot/Johnson.  Not sure what the price was last year but Eric Francis claimed, perhaps, BT didn't want a lockeroom personality like Smith to disrupt the young core.  BT knows Smith well from his Coyotes days.

 

Some may recall Smith would break sticks after bad goals against with the Coyotes and Kelly Hrudy would say, "hey dude, you're not there only one frustrated.  Stop trying to make it like you are the only one who cares about winning."

 

Needless to say, Smith is a hyper intensive competitor which can be a good thing if things are going good.  But if they are not...

Eeew, don't get any Francis on me.

I've read around about Smith's emotions as well, but I'm not really buying it. Every goalie does it, emotions run high.

But if he does it 6-8 times a year, is that really very much? You can't 'tend frustrated, so I doubt it's much of a thing.

My bigger concern is they keep telling us Smith is the most athletic guy they've ever seen, that's an oversell I don't need.

He's one of the better puck-moving goalies we've had though.

It's a good match, as one thing GG did last year was stop having dmen fall too deep on rushers, make the challenge earlier just inside the blueline, not at the hashmark.

We added Hamonic to that style they were growing into last year.

No preseason drama/injury...*knock wood*

I'm eyebrow raised on the F support group, but GG's in his 2nd year, so the system isn't knew to the group.

 

[DirtyDeeds]

On 10/08/2017 at 1:57 PM, jjgallow said:

 

Fair enough, but ...yeah, Robin Lehner IS the better goalie, quite consistently.    So I wouldn't mind knowing...I keep seeing that stats screenshot on this forum lately, where's it from?    I've seen some pretty surprising stuff out of it.   I'd be interested in how they calculate "high danger", "low danger", etc.

 

It's a Really nice looking screenshot but I've never seen anybody reference it or include definitions.    Most stats are incredibly flawed if used incorrectly.  I've always found, the more colors, the more flaws

Colour coding. The scourge of humanity.

[DirtyDeeds]

On 10/08/2017 at 2:05 PM, cross16 said:

 

would be a pretty quick google JJ to find out the data. It's not like they hide it... https://www.dispellingvoodoo.com/ is the site that puts the data into the charts.

 

He isn't but you are going to draw your own conclusions and that's fine. But the more data you look at the more you see Lehenr really isn't all that good and smith is quite a bit better. See the last 3 years. 

Elliott has been the better overall goalie for the last 5 years. He put up top 10 numbers over consecutive years in St Louis. The only knock anyone can say is he didnt put up 60+ games in any of those seasons.

 

It was only learning a new system and new D in Calgary did his numbers drop. I dont see Smith / Laak as an upgrade over last year however if our new top D can perform even close to how good they look on paper then Smith should put up above average numbers. We will never know if Elliott would put up better numbers this year.

[DirtyDeeds]

On 10/08/2017 at 3:42 PM, MAC331 said:

Really at the end of the day any GM wants to have good options for all positions. BT is familiar with Smith enough to have the confidence he can stabilize our net and bridge us to the quality prospect goalies. I think JJ has beat this "average" goaltending theme to death, if we get a good to great Mike Smith effort we should do well. Lack is on the rebound that only playing time will tell his story for us. The bottom line is the whole team needs to show marked improvement over last season in order for us advance further into the playoffs.

I dont recall JJ beating the "avg goaltending" drum that much. It has been  the theme song of a lot of posters all over this forum. 

 

I have been seeing "Just gove us avg goaltending" for months...

 

We got avg goaltending from Elliott Johnson and it only got us into the playoffs. The problem is the avg goaltending for both was a combination of highs and lows with lows at wrong time.

 

We would be remiss if we did not recognize Elliott Johnson combined got us into the playoffs. It wasn' t exceptional play from any other area of our team.

[travel_dude]

The big reasons we got into the playoffs was the winning streak later and the play of CJ early on.  Not really average.  I get what you are saying.  For me average is less peaks and valleys.  The 7-3 losses, 5-0 and 4-0 losses and the 6-5 OTL are the frustrating part.  No, I don't blame the goalies entirely, but it gets harder and harder to come back when down by 2 or 3 in a game.

 

I think the only way we could have re-signed Elliott was if we had a Grubauer to be the other goalie.  Then you wouldn't be forced to play Elliott way more games than he is used to.

[jjgallow]

On 10/08/2017 at 2:05 PM, cross16 said:

 

would be a pretty quick google JJ to find out the data. It's not like they hide it... https://www.dispellingvoodoo.com/ is the site that puts the data into the charts.

 

Well now that you've provided a link and a picture of the twitter handle, yes, it is lol.

 

Previous attempts at "very colorful hockey stat charts" provided mixed results...

 

Now that I'm there, not seeing a ton of explanation of how all the pretty colors are generated.  As in, not really saying any explanation.  Other than there used to be another website, now dead, which provided the data through some means in the past...

[cccsberg]

On 2017-08-09 at 9:02 AM, travel_dude said:

Comments to your top 5:

 

1) Agreed that Smith/Lack should at least provide average goaltending, so that alone is something that could save our bacon early on.  The two early tests will be EDM and ANA.  

 

2) Brouwer's biggest problem last year wasn't scoring, it was moving the puck in the right direction, so to speak.  I just don't see a fit in the top 9 as a RW.  Maybe playing him with Stajan-Janko will create the right circumstances for his play to return.

 

3) Bennett needs at least one impact winger.  Maybe it's Ferland or Tkachuk.  Maybe both.  Maybe Foo is just the right mix of speed and skill to provide him the right opportunities.

 

4) Every reason to get excited with the D we have for the coming season.  Kulak may be ready to take on a full time role as the number 6 guy.  He fare well with Engelland, so there is reason for hope.  But in reality, that is just the 3rd pair, so it just has to be stable.  Brodie with anyone other than Wideman or Grossmann or Engelland is cause for celebration.

 

5) The "da man" guy has to be a RW.  That was the biggest area of concern last season, and could make the biggest difference.  Chaisson, Brouwer, Hathaway, then Lazar....  Not exactly names that scream scoring leader.  We need a guy to step up on RW this year.  Either the 1st or 3rd line.    

1. Rittich pushes out Lack, who goes to AHL to rebuild his game.  Calgary has Top 10 goaltending overall.

 

2. Brouwer is off the team by November, replaced by an effective, fast scoring RW either Poirier or Foo playing with Bennett, and Pribyl comes back and gets some time later in the year as injuries occur over time.  The Bennett line becomes an effective third scoring line that's miserable to play against. 

 

3. Tkachuk plays with Bennett, Jankowski plays with Backlund.  Backlund's line becomes more of a shutdown line as Jankowski breaks in.

 

4. Kulak, Andersson and Valimaki (at least 9 games) rotate through as the #6D and #7D.  Bartkowski gets waived and plays in the AHL, filling in with injuries.  This is a major transition year for the Flames defence.  Next year (2018-19) there's a good chance we see Andersson, Kylington, Valimaki and Fox pushing hard for NHL spots giving management trade options if one or more impress and push out a vet.  Last chance for Kulak and Wotherspoon to obtain a spot.

 

5. Overall the team needs to continue to progress and keep away from massive injuries, though those would open opportunities for younger players... i.e. "next man up".  Management needs to be open to young guys pushing out the vets like Brouwer, Stajan, Lack, FHamilton and Versteeg.  Do or die years for Shinkaruk, Poirier, Pribyl, Kulak, Rittich and Wotherspoon.  The biggest breakout is Ferland as he finds his niche with Gaudreau/Monahan, followed by Bennett establishing his place as an important C on the team.  Failing that, he's likely going to wing or out via trade.

 

It will be fun!

[AlbertaBoy12]

12 hours ago, jjgallow said:

 

Well now that you've provided a link and a picture of the twitter handle, yes, it is lol.

 

Previous attempts at "very colorful hockey stat charts" provided mixed results...

 

Now that I'm there, not seeing a ton of explanation of how all the pretty colors are generated.  As in, not really saying any explanation.  Other than there used to be another website, now dead, which provided the data through some means in the past...

Here since you wont do any digging, usually shots inside the house is high danger, as its usually a quality chance, and then low danger is usually outside the dots. 

[jjgallow]

1 hour ago, AlbertaBoy12 said:

Here since you wont do any digging, usually shots inside the house is high danger, as its usually a quality chance, and then low danger is usually outside the dots. 

 

Um....you seem to have a serious misunderstanding of the issue.  The issue isn't whether someone can google "high danger scoring chances hockey".    The issue is that I keep seeing this extremely colorful chart on here now without any reference to how they define their categories, and how the data is gathered.

 

There are at least two dozen different definitions out there of "high danger" scoring chances.   If we don't even know what the chart means by "high danger", what are we all doing drawing conclusions from it?

 

If we don't know how accurate the information is or how it was collected, why are we drawing conclusions from it?

 

When nobody considers sample size or the statistical significance of the data, why?

 

When no proof has been done to show that the data has meaning...why? 

             (so many articles last regular season about how Sid the Kid wasn't getting enough high danger scoring chances.   So he wins another cup and playoff MVP.  Whoops)

 

So Why?

 

Because this black and white text is boring, and has too many difficult questions.   People like Pretty  colors, and Simple Answers. 

 

(that last statement wasn't pointed at anyone.  I'm aware that it's a popular chart, and for that reason, is used frequently by many respected users.  I'm just questioning how it got so popular)

[travel_dude]

Perhaps we just need a new topic called Fancy Stats.  At least that way we have one place where those links and opinions can be hashed out.  Stats are great at showing things you want to justify.  And people will dispute even the most trivial of definitions.  BTW, the Flames hired a Fancy Stats guru, so one of the sources of free info is under contract.  

[AlbertaBoy12]

58 minutes ago, jjgallow said:

 

Um....you seem to have a serious misunderstanding of the issue.  The issue isn't whether someone can google "high danger scoring chances hockey".    The issue is that I keep seeing this extremely colorful chart on here now without any reference to how they define their categories, and how the data is gathered.

 

There are at least two dozen different definitions out there of "high danger" scoring chances.   If we don't even know what the chart means by "high danger", what are we all doing drawing conclusions from it?

 

If we don't know how accurate the information is or how it was collected, why are we drawing conclusions from it?

 

When nobody considers sample size or the statistical significance of the data, why?

 

When no proof has been done to show that the data has meaning...why? 

             (so many articles last regular season about how Sid the Kid wasn't getting enough high danger scoring chances.   So he wins another cup and playoff MVP.  Whoops)

 

So Why?

 

Because this black and white text is boring, and has too many difficult questions.   People like Pretty  colors, and Simple Answers. 

 

(that last statement wasn't pointed at anyone.  I'm aware that it's a popular chart, and for that reason, is used frequently by many respected users.  I'm just questioning how it got so popular)

Im not sure what 2 dozen definitions youre looking at, but ive never heard anyone refer to a high danger scoring chance as anything different then in the house.. While the definition of scoring chance might differ, the areas for high danger vs low danger do not.

 

I dont think it really matters what our definitions are either, the website probably uses the same defintion for all goalies, so the data on the table is still correct when comparing lehner vs smith, or any other goalies.

[cross16]

1 hour ago, jjgallow said:

 

If we don't know how accurate the information is or how it was collected, why are we drawing conclusions from it?

 

When nobody considers sample size or the statistical significance of the data, why?

 

)

 

What is funny about this is you can say the same thing about save % and yet you consistently draw conclusions based on that. 

 

I get not everyone likes analytics and that's fine, everyone should make their own conclusions. But I just find it very interesting when people completely dismiss them without any understanding and assume that numbers that are at worst equally flawed are a better means of comparison. 

[tincup1]

This is a good topic.  Who's the man ?  I'm going to say Dougie Hamilton.  IMO, he is ripe to break out and become a Norris calibre Dman...he might even win it if not for playing in Calgary.  I agree on the goalie situation as it's obviously the biggest risk this team has.  BT has gone the stop gap route for 3 incarnations now and it hasn't worked yet...here's to 3rd time's a charm !  If Bennett and Dougie break out, and we get average goaltending, this team could do some damage...my prediction is they'll win the Pacific.

[Cowtownguy]

1 hour ago, tincup1 said:

This is a good topic.  Who's the man ?  I'm going to say Dougie Hamilton.  IMO, he is ripe to break out and become a Norris calibre Dman...he might even win it if not for playing in Calgary.  I agree on the goalie situation as it's obviously the biggest risk this team has.  BT has gone the stop gap route for 3 incarnations now and it hasn't worked yet...here's to 3rd time's a charm !  If Bennett and Dougie break out, and we get average goaltending, this team could do some damage...my prediction is they'll win the Pacific.

I have been thinking the same thing. He looked more confident as the season progressed. I like the way he got shots through to the net. I noticed he used his body a bit too. If he increases his confidence and takes on more of a leadership role, he could be the man. I also like the way he goofs around a bit.

[tincup1]

 

hmmmm, The Hockey Writers has a new Flames article.  Flames' 5 keys  to contention !  Wonder were they got the idea ?

 

http://thehockeywriters.com/calgary-flames-keys-contention/

[Flyerfan52]

6 hours ago, tincup1 said:

 

hmmmm, The Hockey Writers has a new Flames article.  Flames' 5 keys  to contention !  Wonder were they got the idea ?

 

http://thehockeywriters.com/calgary-flames-keys-contention/

 

Pretty poor writing. The 1st paragraph makes it sound like Smith & Lack are either young forwards or mobile D.