5 Things to Be Contenders

[jjgallow]

My official last comments on "advanced" fancy stats in this thread, as per travel_dude's polite hint.

 

Quote

What is funny about this is you can say the same thing about save % and yet you consistently draw conclusions based on that. 

 

I get not everyone likes analytics and that's fine, everyone should make their own conclusions. But I just find it very interesting when people completely dismiss them without any understanding and assume that numbers that are at worst equally flawed are a better means of comparison. 

 

I actually put a lot of consideration into the statistical significance of save %.   True "high danger" scoring areas have very specific locality and rarity to them.  As such, total save percentage has roughly 20x more sample data to work with, lending to it's considerably higher reliability, which (I won't do this here) actually allows one to graph out correlations between things like Save Percentage and Stanley Cups.     

 

"Advanced" stats, from what I've seen, has failed to do this for the most part, and in several cases actually done the exact opposite as intended, as per my Sidney Crosby example above.  Lending to the arguement that these small sample sized "advanced stats" are far to subject to randomness.  For this reason, and for the reason I address below with AlbertaBoy12.

 

On 12/08/2017 at 0:34 PM, AlbertaBoy12 said:

Im not sure what 2 dozen definitions youre looking at, but ive never heard anyone refer to a high danger scoring chance as anything different then in the house.. While the definition of scoring chance might differ, the areas for high danger vs low danger do not.

 

I dont think it really matters what our definitions are either, the website probably uses the same defintion for all goalies, so the data on the table is still correct when comparing lehner vs smith, or any other goalies.

 

Do these all look the same to you?  https://www.google.ca/search?biw=1855&bih=966&tbm=isch&sa=1&q=hockey+danger+zone+scoring&oq=hockey+danger+zone+scoring

 

That's a fraction of the number of differing opinions.   For the record, I actually take exception to your definition of danger zone, as I believe what limited evidence we have of it suggets it's actually more localized to the low slot.  and when people define it as literally half the defensive zone, kind of like you've shown above, I would argue that it's very difficult to ascertain whether the numbers could ever reliably mean anything.   But that's just my opinion...again, we don't have good science on this to argue either way.

 

I have never seen such flagrant use of the words "stats" without any trained statisticians being involved.   The only people I've seen involved in advanced stats, to date, are:  Broadcasters, Fans, self described "Guru's", and a disturbingly high number of people from Edmonton.   If these were actual stats, there would probably be actual trained statisticians behind them.

 

On 12/08/2017 at 11:56 AM, travel_dude said:

Perhaps we just need a new topic called Fancy Stats.  At least that way we have one place where those links and opinions can be hashed out.  Stats are great at showing things you want to justify.  And people will dispute even the most trivial of definitions.  BTW, the Flames hired a Fancy Stats guru, so one of the sources of free info is under contract.  

 

We actually did have said topic...I'd posted on it a few times.   It's nowhere to be found now, from what I can tell.   I'd create one myself but when threads go missing I first defer to the mods

[AlbertaBoy12]

23 minutes ago, jjgallow said:

Do these all look the same to you?  https://www.google.ca/search?biw=1855&bih=966&tbm=isch&sa=1&q=hockey+danger+zone+scoring&oq=hockey+danger+zone+scoring

JJ no offense man but I looked at this image search you linked..and some of those are defensive zone coverage.

 

The rest of them while not all being the same generally refer to shots in close to the crease as being high danger, the shots outside of that area but still in the house as medium danger and the rest is low danger. I dont want to turn this into a huge arguement but at the same time those differences of inches between a medium danger and high danger, wouldnt lead to a huge discrepancy in statistics even if lehner and smith were judged by different standards on that website cross linked.

[zima]

TinCup1 I enjoyed the Vid on MrT fun to watch forgot about the doughty drama to funny.

[jjgallow]

31 minutes ago, AlbertaBoy12 said:

JJ no offense man but I looked at this image search you linked..and some of those are defensive zone coverage.

 

Looks like we need a new thread.

[tincup1]

40 minutes ago, zima said:

TinCup1 I enjoyed the Vid on MrT fun to watch forgot about the doughty drama to funny.

 

And the Burns stick stealing incident...that will never get old !  I also enjoyed the video and just another weapon the Flames have up front that could turn into a real difference maker. 

 

Regardless on how we evaluate goalie stats, the question remains, is our goaltending good enough for the Flames to be a contender ?  That question is no. 1 on the list. 

[Flyerfan52]

1 hour ago, tincup1 said:

 

And the Burns stick stealing incident...that will never get old !  I also enjoyed the video and just another weapon the Flames have up front that could turn into a real difference maker. 

 

Regardless on how we evaluate goalie stats, the question remains, is our goaltending good enough for the Flames to be a contender ?  That question is no. 1 on the list. 

With the defense the goales have no excuses not to @ least make stops on the average shots they'll probably see. There's the odd decent shot that'll get by but if Smith/Lack don't let in the 1s of the beachball variety they should have it easy.

That's unless the forwards decide that with our D they can scrap any responsibility & not give a helping hand.

 

I've never considered Crawford a top 5 goalie but when he had Keith, Seabrook in their prime & a strong supporting cast in front of him he won a lot of games.

[DirtyDeeds]

On 13/08/2017 at 0:08 PM, Flyerfan52 said:

 

Pretty poor writing. The 1st paragraph makes it sound like Smith & Lack are either young forwards or mobile D.

Ryan pike was doing articles for Flames Nation. I found he wrote stuff that was to stir up people rather than good content.

[jjgallow]

15 minutes ago, DirtyDeeds said:

Ryan pike was doing articles for Flames Nation. I found he wrote stuff that was to stir up people rather than good content.

 

I always thought writing stuff to stir people up was good content?   Nobody ever told me otherwise and I'm already a few thousand posts in :/

 

[DirtyDeeds]

10 minutes ago, jjgallow said:

 

I always thought writing stuff to stir people up was good content?   Nobody ever told me otherwise and I'm already a few thousand posts in :/

 

Fred Flintstone solar heating panels. Good stuff JJ.

[kehatch]

8 hours ago, DirtyDeeds said:

Ryan pike was doing articles for Flames Nation. I found he wrote stuff that was to stir up people rather than good content.

 

Sure your not thinking of Lambert? He was/is the ultimate troll. He has an article somewhere about how the Flames will crash and burn this season. 

[AlbertaBoy12]

13 hours ago, kehatch said:

 

Sure your not thinking of Lambert? He was/is the ultimate troll. He has an article somewhere about how the Flames will crash and burn this season. 

Oh oilers media and their fans are ridiculous, everyone is so hyped about mcdavid that the oilers are 9-1 favorites to win the cup right behind the penguins at 6-1. I dont see how thats possible since the only thing they added was jokinen and their D is going to be worse to start the season unless benning can step into a top 4 role. 

 

That aside there is a bunch of teams that are ahead of us in the favorites to be contenders including toronto and im not quite sure why there is so many question marks surronding the flames. Their D got better, their forwards should get better, and the goaltending should be more consistent with mike smith, obviously those could all be question marks. But on paper this is the best flames team in years, and barring some sort of weird season I dont see how we wont be 1 or 2 in the division. 

[conundrumed]

15 minutes ago, AlbertaBoy12 said:

Oh oilers media and their fans are ridiculous, everyone is so hyped about mcdavid that the oilers are 9-1 favorites to win the cup right behind the penguins at 6-1. I dont see how thats possible since the only thing they added was jokinen and their D is going to be worse to start the season unless benning can step into a top 4 role. 

 

That aside there is a bunch of teams that are ahead of us in the favorites to be contenders including toronto and im not quite sure why there is so many question marks surronding the flames. Their D got better, their forwards should get better, and the goaltending should be more consistent with mike smith, obviously those could all be question marks. But on paper this is the best flames team in years, and barring some sort of weird season I dont see how we wont be 1 or 2 in the division. 

Lambert writes for Flames Nation, not the Oilers.

He's pretty much doomspeak. You know how that goes..."let's be controversial for traffic".

"Because it's really hard work to be informed and balanced". How we created this environment of Bruce Dowbigginses is beyond me.

When I moved to Calgary in '94, first thing I noticed was, "wow, do I hate your hockey media" - George Johnson aside.

I think the only thing that has changed, is that it has gotten worse.

Loved it when Cherry called out Dowbiggin on national TV. LOVED.

Don't bat an eye at the Francis' and Ryan Lambert's is my only advice, don't support it. When Francis comes on 960, I just turn the station.

[Flyerfan52]

39 minutes ago, AlbertaBoy12 said:

Oh oilers media and their fans are ridiculous, everyone is so hyped about mcdavid that the oilers are 9-1 favorites to win the cup right behind the penguins at 6-1. I dont see how thats possible since the only thing they added was jokinen and their D is going to be worse to start the season unless benning can step into a top 4 role. 

 

That aside there is a bunch of teams that are ahead of us in the favorites to be contenders including toronto and im not quite sure why there is so many question marks surronding the flames. Their D got better, their forwards should get better, and the goaltending should be more consistent with mike smith, obviously those could all be question marks. But on paper this is the best flames team in years, and barring some sort of weird season I dont see how we wont be 1 or 2 in the division. 

It's the media. McDavid is their new Crosby while even a garbage TML team is great in the eyes of the GTA media.

 

I'm fine starting as a dark horse & watching the media back pedal when we blow by their pets.