So Where do we go from here? Analysis & Predictions

[MAC331]

17 minutes ago, tmac70 said:

We don't play with aggression, we have not since Gully has been here. I am all for playing a gritter game but it isn't happening. Everyone seems to believe the NHL now stands for NO HIT LEAGUE. If we some what even slightly resembled the style you recommend I could agree hell I am even for it. We are a butter soft poorly coached team that is couple guys short of making a run, I still stand by that theory.

No worries, we all have our own thoughts. We will see how this season goes with GG. I agree we are a few players shy of being the team we could be but I said that at the start of the season. I would love a 4th line that causes some havoc with the opposition, it is a good tactic to get them off their game or at least have them looking over their shoulders.

[robrob74]

Ok, so here we have LA, Vegas, The Sharks and the Nucks all doing better than expected. Even the Ducks are better than they should be and should have been bottom of the league with injuries...

 

Our team and fans were so arrogant to think we’d waltz to first in our division. We got slapped in the face and are just getting the wake up call now. 

 

We should have been better prepared from the start of the season and I don’t think that Versteeg should be that huge of a loss when we are talking the losses teams like Anaheim and SAN Jose had taken. They’re still getting through it. 

 

This is sure going to bet uhly if ugly if we do end up a lotto team and this team wins it. All those years of sucking will come back to us over stupid trades of all of our draft picks. 

[DirtyDeeds]

17 minutes ago, robrob74 said:

Ok, so here we have LA, Vegas, The Sharks and the Nucks all doing better than expected. Even the Ducks are better than they should be and should have been bottom of the league with injuries...

 

Our team and fans were so arrogant to think we’d waltz to first in our division. We got slapped in the face and are just getting the wake up call now. 

 

We should have been better prepared from the start of the season and I don’t think that Versteeg should be that huge of a loss when we are talking the losses teams like Anaheim and SAN Jose had taken. They’re still getting through it. 

 

This is sure going to bet uhly if ugly if we do end up a lotto team and this team wins it. All those years of sucking will come back to us over stupid trades of all of our draft picks. 

I think you are getting a bit ahead of yourself. We have not finished as a lotto team yet and our pick we traded has not defied all odds to become first overall. yet.. Way too soon to get all worked up over that...

[travel_dude]

3 hours ago, robrob74 said:

Ok, so here we have LA, Vegas, The Sharks and the Nucks all doing better than expected. Even the Ducks are better than they should be and should have been bottom of the league with injuries...

 

Our team and fans were so arrogant to think we’d waltz to first in our division. We got slapped in the face and are just getting the wake up call now. 

 

We should have been better prepared from the start of the season and I don’t think that Versteeg should be that huge of a loss when we are talking the losses teams like Anaheim and SAN Jose had taken. They’re still getting through it. 

 

This is sure going to bet uhly if ugly if we do end up a lotto team and this team wins it. All those years of sucking will come back to us over stupid trades of all of our draft picks. 

 

VGK and the Nucks are the teams playing above their expectations.  But the Nucks have Boeser, who is a rookie sensation that was expected to be good to great.  Expansion teams have zero expectations and can play loose.  They also have players that are able to score like Neal and , Reilly Smith, Perron and Marchessault.  When healthy they have MAF who is a decent enough starter.

 

The Ducks were expected to lead the Pacific, so being in contention with all their injuries is expected.  The Sharks have only lost Marleau.  LA is what they are.  When Quick is on, they can become unbeatable.  They have forwards that can score.  

 

I think most fans felt we have the players to be a top 3 Pacific team.  We're not that far off, and that includes being in the midst of a bad losing streak where we are playing good defensively with a terrible PP.  We are in the bottom of the league in SH%, which is not likely to last.  We are bottom 1/3 in PP, even with out recent struggles.  The PK is improving.  PDO is low, which tends to normalize.  

 

Fixing the PP is the 1st step.  It will make a difference in close games, which is how we have lost a lot of games, except for the blowouts.

[robrob74]

4 hours ago, DirtyDeeds said:

I think you are getting a bit ahead of yourself. We have not finished as a lotto team yet and our pick we traded has not defied all odds to become first overall. yet.. Way too soon to get all worked up over that...

 

Ya it is, but it is not too soon to. E upset with where we are at when most of the roster supposedly played this system and are having troubles playing to it and having success. I guess this is the time of year they got going last year and we have similar goaltending 

[Flyerfan52]

On 12/17/2017 at 0:04 PM, robrob74 said:

Ok, so here we have LA, Vegas, The Sharks and the Nucks all doing better than expected. Even the Ducks are better than they should be and should have been bottom of the league with injuries...

 

Our team and fans were so arrogant to think we’d waltz to first in our division. We got slapped in the face and are just getting the wake up call now. 

 

We should have been better prepared from the start of the season and I don’t think that Versteeg should be that huge of a loss when we are talking the losses teams like Anaheim and SAN Jose had taken. They’re still getting through it. 

 

This is sure going to bet uhly if ugly if we do end up a lotto team and this team wins it. All those years of sucking will come back to us over stupid trades of all of our draft picks. 

Others may deny it but if you go back to pre-season threads many (including mtself) believed the Pacific came down to which Alberta based team outplayed the other.

We thought McPhee merely drafted for the long run & that Vegas was years away from competing.

LA based on the last few years should be trading away the good vets & commit to a long term rebuild.

Vancouver was toast & were gonna be "gimmee" points from day 1. Slipping now but started better than expected.

SJ too old & slow. Nope.

Anaheim had a core aging it's way out of contention. With that core injured but soon to return they are 1 point behind Calgary with a game in hand.

 

The Central was no longer that good. If the playoffs started today they'd have 5 of 8 positions in the west.

 

Edmonton has a very steep hill to climb but Calgary can salvage the season. IMO the Flames need to make some ballsy moves (none of this 4th liner for 4th liner stuff) to do that. Given Burke's fondness for extending the Christmas freeze expect nothing until 2018 but the longer things are held off the more dire the situation. 1 win from a team with a 0.500 record trying hard to stay near a wild card spot doesn't cut it. BT has his work cut out for him to make the playoffs & not pull a TML type mistake by having traded an unprotected 1st that became a top 2 pick.

 

(We look close to SJ but they've played 3 less games.)

 

[Thebrewcrew]

It's gonna be a dog fight in the west this season. If we wanna be a playoff team, we need to have winning records against other teams in the hunt. 

 

Who's out of it;

ARI- we lead the season series 1-0. We should sweep them, but at worst we NEED 6 or 7 of 8 points against ARI.

 

Who's got work to do;

EDM- we trail the season series 0-2. We have 3 remaining games, 2 of which are at home. 

VAN- we took the season series 3-1.

COL- we lead the season series 1-0. We have one more trip to Denver and they come here once.

 

Central

NSH- season series tied at 1-1. We travel to NSH once more

STL- season series tied 1-1. STL is here Wednesday 

WPG- we lead the season series 1-0. One home and one road game against WPG left.

 

Pacific

LA- we lead the season series 1-0. They come here twice and we have one more trip to LA

VGK- have yet to play them, 2 at home 2 in Vegas.

SJ- trail season series 1-0. 2 games in SJ, one more at home

 

WC spots;

CHI- we don't play them until NYE, we face them twice at home once in CHI

MIN- we have already lost the first 2 to MIN, but at 0-1-1 if we win the last game we can finish with 3 points in 3 games. We travel to MIN one more time.

DAL- we've dropped the season series to DAL already at 0-2. We travel to DAL one more time

ANA- lead season series 1-0. ANA comes here twice, our last regular season trip to ANA comes shortly after Christmas.

 

[MAC331]

Christmas Wish is for BT to get another high scoring Winger and have GG move Tkachuk off of the 3M line. Either put him with JG and SM or SB and MJ on RW.

Merry Christmas, Happy New Year, Go Flames Go !

[CheersMan]

45 minutes ago, MAC331 said:

Christmas Wish is for BT to get another high scoring Winger and have GG move Tkachuk off of the 3M line. Either put him with JG and SM or SB and MJ on RW.

Merry Christmas, Happy New Year, Go Flames Go !

I respectfully disagree.  I think Ferland compliments the top line nicely with his speed, shot and physicality.  He is also chipping in nicely with point production while showing steady improvement. 

Tkachuck is doing just fine where he is, I’m not moving him off the 3M line either.

As far as acquiring a top line RW’er, why?  Ferland is doing the job just fine at a reasonable cost.  If the opportunity for a RW’er does present itself, BT needs to sign or cut bait with Backlund first because the RW’er ppl are talking about won’t be cheap.

With the Cap increasing next season, Backlund now fits in no problem.  Question is, can we live with the term he will demand?  A couple years down the road we need to have room for pricey Tkachuk and Bennett re-signings.

[pcs]

52 minutes ago, CheersMan said:

  A couple years down the road we need to have room for pricey Tkachuk and Bennett re-signings.

Tkachuk yes. I think the jury is still out both on just how pricey Bennett will be, and whether he’ll be worth re-signing. if he keeps up what he’s doing now, I got no problem with either. If he struggles as much to find his form next year, for instance, or regresses again this year, he might be a necessary casualty.

[MAC331]

1 hour ago, CheersMan said:

I respectfully disagree.  I think Ferland compliments the top line nicely with his speed, shot and physicality.  He is also chipping in nicely with point production while showing steady improvement. 

Tkachuck is doing just fine where he is, I’m not moving him off the 3M line either.

As far as acquiring a top line RW’er, why?  Ferland is doing the job just fine at a reasonable cost.  If the opportunity for a RW’er does present itself, BT needs to sign or cut bait with Backlund first because the RW’er ppl are talking about won’t be cheap.

With the Cap increasing next season, Backlund now fits in no problem.  Question is, can we live with the term he will demand?  A couple years down the road we need to have room for pricey Tkachuk and Bennett re-signings.

Sorry but I have to respectfully disagree that Tkachuk is doing just fine where he is. If you want to see this team improve and get better you have to look to where you could improve it. I think by adding another quality winger allows some movement within the roster that would be a positive improvement. Also I didn't say anything about losing Backlund as I hope they find a way to keep him.

[Cowtownguy]

7 minutes ago, MAC331 said:

Sorry but I have to respectfully disagree that Tkachuk is doing just fine where he is. If you want to see this team improve and get better you have to look to where you could improve it. I think by adding another quality winger allows some movement within the roster that would be a positive improvement. Also I didn't say anything about losing Backlund as I hope they find a way to keep him.

I suspect that a good player like Tkachuk will play well on any line. He is just that versatile. I would like to see him have time with Monahan and JG to learn to work well together. I would not be surprised if our top line, with Tkachuk, becomes one of the top lines in the NHL. Ferland works reasonably well. I think that there is more potential on the first line.

[travel_dude]

2 hours ago, CheersMan said:

I respectfully disagree.  I think Ferland compliments the top line nicely with his speed, shot and physicality.  He is also chipping in nicely with point production while showing steady improvement. 

Tkachuck is doing just fine where he is, I’m not moving him off the 3M line either.

As far as acquiring a top line RW’er, why?  Ferland is doing the job just fine at a reasonable cost.  If the opportunity for a RW’er does present itself, BT needs to sign or cut bait with Backlund first because the RW’er ppl are talking about won’t be cheap.

With the Cap increasing next season, Backlund now fits in no problem.  Question is, can we live with the term he will demand?  A couple years down the road we need to have room for pricey Tkachuk and Bennett re-signings.

 

Ferland goes cold for stretches.  In December games he's gone a little cold, perhaps that is the end result of the line going cold or just Ferland going cold, but it's concerning to say the least.  The cost doesn't matter.  That's not part of the argument.  If we take on more salary on the wing, then we can look at the expensive 4th line as where to start cutting.  Or replacing a D-man with a prospect.

  

Anyway, I am more keen on moving Tkachuk off a shutdown line in favor of increasing offense.  Ferland playing on his correct wing with Backlund doesn't hurt the line.  He can be one of the better forecheckers, and he has the speed to turn a transition into a scoring chance.     

[robrob74]

40 minutes ago, travel_dude said:

 

Ferland goes cold for stretches.  In December games he's gone a little cold, perhaps that is the end result of the line going cold or just Ferland going cold, but it's concerning to say the least.  The cost doesn't matter.  That's not part of the argument.  If we take on more salary on the wing, then we can look at the expensive 4th line as where to start cutting.  Or replacing a D-man with a prospect.

  

Anyway, I am more keen on moving Tkachuk off a shutdown line in favor of increasing offense.  Ferland playing on his correct wing with Backlund doesn't hurt the line.  He can be one of the better forecheckers, and he has the speed to turn a transition into a scoring chance.     

 

Plus, Backlund has some dangle to his game which will make room for Ferland to show his skill as well. I see Ferland as a third liner who can play up. Every player is streaky, but we tend to be over critical with some, more than others. I think he’ll pick it up again, but we can’t be upset when he gets cold... 

 

although, playing him down the lineup might fire him up... get his feet moving. 

[CheersMan]

1 hour ago, travel_dude said:

 

Ferland goes cold for stretches.  In December games he's gone a little cold, perhaps that is the end result of the line going cold or just Ferland going cold, but it's concerning to say the least.  The cost doesn't matter.  That's not part of the argument.  If we take on more salary on the wing, then we can look at the expensive 4th line as where to start cutting.  Or replacing a D-man with a prospect.

  

Anyway, I am more keen on moving Tkachuk off a shutdown line in favor of increasing offense.  Ferland playing on his correct wing with Backlund doesn't hurt the line.  He can be one of the better forecheckers, and he has the speed to turn a transition into a scoring chance.     

Every player in the league has hot and cold periods for one reason or another.  What I’m looking for is slow to moderate steady growth.  Ferland is on pace to become only our 10^th 30 goal scorer in the last 20 years.  I like the way he fires the puck and his wrister is comparable to Monahan’s, while his slap shot is harder.  

People call the 3M line a shut down line, they fail to mention that they also contribute in the offense regularily, with 50 something points already this season.  Tkachuk may find his way to the #1 line down the road but right now I’m investing in Ferland on that line.  I also think Tkachuk’s skating needs to improve before he starts logging 20 min a night playing against the highest skilled players.

For those who want to acquire the high profile top line RW’er, I think you need to choose between Backlund or the winger.  Can’t have both according to my Abacus.

[DirtyDeeds]

The Fan960 tossed out an interesting stat day before yesterday about Bennett. Seems since the end of November Sam has scored the 4th highest point in the league.

[Khrox]

3 hours ago, DirtyDeeds said:

The Fan960 tossed out an interesting stat day before yesterday about Bennett. Seems since the end of November Sam has scored the 4th highest point in the league.

Yeah, he's up there with a few big names (I think Kopitar and Tavares are on that list as well). Also note that most his points (all?) have come since he's been playing with Janko, and a lot of this hot streak (December) has been with Hathaway as well.

[travel_dude]

17 hours ago, CheersMan said:

Every player in the league has hot and cold periods for one reason or another.  What I’m looking for is slow to moderate steady growth.  Ferland is on pace to become only our 10^th 30 goal scorer in the last 20 years.  I like the way he fires the puck and his wrister is comparable to Monahan’s, while his slap shot is harder.  

People call the 3M line a shut down line, they fail to mention that they also contribute in the offense regularily, with 50 something points already this season.  Tkachuk may find his way to the #1 line down the road but right now I’m investing in Ferland on that line.  I also think Tkachuk’s skating needs to improve before he starts logging 20 min a night playing against the highest skilled players.

For those who want to acquire the high profile top line RW’er, I think you need to choose between Backlund or the winger.  Can’t have both according to my Abacus.

 

Need new abacus.

 

Brouwer and Stone are the two that are high priced for their usage.  $4.5m for a 4th liner and $3.5m for a 3rd pairing guy.  Great to have depth, but 4th line depth needs to be cheaper.  IMHO, you also don't keep $3.5m as depth on D.  Great for this year assuming we are playoff bound.

 

I don't have a problem with Ferland.  Where he needs to improve the most is when he isn't scoring, which is quite often.  

[tmac70]

If we can get a trade done is fantastic. Really with all the fancy stats and crap, hockey is still a simple game. If you look a the GF/GA every team in a playoff spot has a + stat for goals for. Pretty simple scoring more goals than your opposition gets you in to a playoff spot.

[Pyromancer]

The Py chart at the Xmas break:

 

 

[Flyerfan52]

Thanks Pyro. I always look forward to those.

The only 1 of my teams looking good is the #3 Jets.

Arizona & Buffalo seem to have bought their lottery tickets early.

[Heartbreaker]

In both the Pacific and the Atlantic, the disparity between the third and fourth place teams is very interesting. 

 

Love. 

[Cowtownguy]

I understand that Arizona is not going to make the playoffs. It cracks me up that they are not yet mathematically eliminated though. The way that teams accumulate points, it is hard to get into the playoffs and difficult to be eliminated (mathematically). The NHL marketing team clearly put a lot of effort into devising that scheme. Now, if they could only figure out when a puck crosses a line...

[Carty]

My Christmas wish...   For the Flames coaching staff to quit stubborningly banging their heads into a wall and come up with a solid "Plan B"...

[tmac70]

2 hours ago, Carty said:

My Christmas wish...   For the Flames coaching staff to quit stubborningly banging their heads into a wall and come up with a solid "Plan B"...

If something does change and drastically in the next few weeks we are not making the playoff's. The Coilers have more 2nd game b2b than us which translates to tired teams easier games. Us not making the playoffs with the club is 100% coaching. We lead the stats in all the wrong places currently. IMHO I think the NYI will get a very nice gift this year with our draft selection. As this club starts to fall it will fall fast.