So Where do we go from here? Analysis & Predictions

[robrob74]

1 hour ago, cross16 said:

The Flames do have a very clear window with this current group. As you see it constructed, the Flames are going to have 2-3 years as the roster currently stands as a window to get someone done before big changes are going to have to be made and questions will arise. 

 

Smith is under contract for 2 years what happen then? Is he still viable? What if Gilles/Parsons hasn't made it or doesn't pan out?

Brodie and Hamonic have 3 years and Hamilton has 4. No way at their current projections you can keep all 3 plus Gio on your D core so change will have to be made. Sure maybe Valamaki, Kylington or Andersson is ready but what if they are not? What if they are not top pairing, how do you adjust? If Andersson doesn't pan out where does that leave your RH shot situation?

Tkachuk is up in 2 years and likely going to need to get paid. Where does that money come from? What is Bennet's contract situation.

 

No one is suggesting the Flames will fall off a cliff in 2-3 years but it's pretty clear that this group has a 2-3 window before changes need to be made. Changes may be for the better or for the worse we will have to see but I agree with Kehatch that it's overly optimistic to think the Flames are going to have that long a window for contention, especially if they can't hit on either Gilles or Parsons. 

 

Can we not be like a St. Louis who is always considered, up until last year, a team to be in contention. I think we've set ourselves up quite nicely and I feel like our window is ahead of schedule. Suddenly we're a team on the decline? I know you didn't say that specifically.

 

But we're set up to have our D, hopefully take over if need be. It's the forward groups that need work. If we can aim at some forwards to develop along side an aging core then we can keep it going. 

 

So so far the scouts are doing a better job, so let's hope they continue that trend!

[robrob74]

22 minutes ago, rickross said:

I too like many of you was caught off guard by Trelivings 2-3 win now mandate. I think many of us still don't believe we are Cup contenders with our current roster and I'd agree to an extent. I think BT was really just referring to our Defensive and goalie stability for the next 2-3 years. Ideally we should only have to tinker with our fwd group for the next 2-3 years, it's easier than finding new high end defensive pairings. 

 

On on paper we do seem to be closer to contenders then the pretenders of last year. I'm still not 100% convinced GG is the coach that leads us to the Cup, however he has improved on most of the team's metrics. 

 

MAC331 brings up a good point concerning the direction of this team after that 3 yr window closes. Our fwds our still young enough but we'd essentially be looking at rebuilding our D around Hamilton and D prospects on the come up if we don't resign our existing vets. As much as it appears as though Treliving may have jumped the gun with "win now" mandate...what are we waiting for? We're no longer a draft dependent team so why not put a little pressure on the team to succeed and go after the Cup now?

 

 

I see the "win now" as something to put the onus onto the players. "We built this team, we believe it has a great base from the D core out. There's enough offensive threats on the forwards to be dangerous. Now it's on you to do it!"

[rickross]

I think the biggest challenge for the Flames projection as a Cup contender is they're overly dependent on "bounce back" and "breakout" players this season. Lazar, Brouwer, Bennett, Smith And Lack, even Hamonic and Brodie to a degree. That's a lot of hope to be depending on! They might as well just ride a train filled with beer tubs for training camp ,maybe that's how they can avoid a slow start to the year

[Flyerfan52]

2-3 year window sounds possible & the best window we have in that we now have a great D (but the Brodie, Hamonic & Stone contracts all expire about the time we can realistically expect Gio to fade out of the top 4), a seemingly better tandem in goal & should be optomistic about growth from our youngster (both pending & those like Tkachuk, Bennett & hopefully Gaudreau/Monahan) .

In 3 years with a lesser Gio we have 2 top 4 D to re-sign (I don't see Stone as more than a dang good #5 that can be used as a #4), might or might not have retained Backlund & current hot shots (the 4 I mentioned) might/might not keep improving but if they did 2 will be eating more of the cap. We'll have 2 different goalies (again) & the cost will be dependant on if they come internally or we pay via trade or UFA.

After 2-3 years much of this roster will be changed so might as well strike while we can. The top dogs are changing so it's best to go big before the teams dropping get a chance to reload ( they won't take 10 years of hit & miss).

*****************************************************************************************************************

In the misunderstood interview Gaudreau gave he was also fairly clear on the window being open but that it'd get tougher after a few more years.

[cross16]

30 minutes ago, robrob74 said:

 

Can we not be like a St. Louis who is always considered, up until last year, a team to be in contention. I think we've set ourselves up quite nicely and I feel like our window is ahead of schedule. Suddenly we're a team on the decline? I know you didn't say that specifically.

 

But we're set up to have our D, hopefully take over if need be. It's the forward groups that need work. If we can aim at some forwards to develop along side an aging core then we can keep it going. 

 

So so far the scouts are doing a better job, so let's hope they continue that trend!

 

Nor did i even hint it, in fact I specifically said there is no reason to assume by saying there is a window that it means they'll fall off a cliff once it's done. The only point of the window is that this current group is going to get 2-3 years and then changes will have to be made. Change can be for the better or for the worse but you don't know until you go through it so yes maybe they do wind up like a St Louis and they are there every year what if they are a team like the Flyers who can't find goaltending and even up having to make changes that don't pan out?

 

The only point is we don't know. All we know is this current group looks pretty good on paper, will get a 2-3 year shot and then we'll see what happens after. Their ability to be a team like St Louis is mostly going to be decided by goaltending. If Gilles, Parsons, Rittich pan out, or they are able to acquire someone else that can give them stability, it's more likely but if they cant they'll be in trouble. 

[Flyerfan52]

14 minutes ago, rickross said:

I think the biggest challenge for the Flames projection as a Cup contender is they're overly dependent on "bounce back" and "breakout" players this season. Lazar, Brouwer, Bennett, Smith And Lack, even Hamonic and Brodie to a degree. That's a lot of hope to be depending on! They might as well just ride a train filled with beer tubs for training camp ,maybe that's how they can avoid a slow start to the year

That is a lot of bounce back/breakout (& you omitted Stone) so we can hope that if only 1/2 do it's the most important 1s (i've high lighted the 1s I see as most needed to) do so.

I left out Lack as if he fails there are still unemployed goalies that could serve as backup. If Bennett starts slow/bad I see him getting moved around Christmas since by now he's had enough time to know he has to impress early to rise in the ranks (if he doesn't look like he'll make still pending next year UFA Backlund look disposable he becomes a disposable asset himself).

[kehatch]

1 hour ago, robrob74 said:

 

Can we not be like a St. Louis who is always considered, up until last year, a team to be in contention. I think we've set ourselves up quite nicely and I feel like our window is ahead of schedule. Suddenly we're a team on the decline? I know you didn't say that specifically.

 

But we're set up to have our D, hopefully take over if need be. It's the forward groups that need work. If we can aim at some forwards to develop along side an aging core then we can keep it going. 

 

So so far the scouts are doing a better job, so let's hope they continue that trend!

 

The plan is to always be in contention.  The simple reality is that due to cap, contracts, and aging the Flames team 4 years from now will look very different from the Flames team of today.  Hopefully that team is able to contend.  

[MAC331]

On ‎2017‎-‎08‎-‎09 at 2:01 PM, Flyerfan52 said:

2-3 year window sounds possible & the best window we have in that we now have a great D (but the Brodie, Hamonic & Stone contracts all expire about the time we can realistically expect Gio to fade out of the top 4), a seemingly better tandem in goal & should be optomistic about growth from our youngster (both pending & those like Tkachuk, Bennett & hopefully Gaudreau/Monahan) .

In 3 years with a lesser Gio we have 2 top 4 D to re-sign (I don't see Stone as more than a dang good #5 that can be used as a #4), might or might not have retained Backlund & current hot shots (the 4 I mentioned) might/might not keep improving but if they did 2 will be eating more of the cap. We'll have 2 different goalies (again) & the cost will be dependant on if they come internally or we pay via trade or UFA.

After 2-3 years much of this roster will be changed so might as well strike while we can. The top dogs are changing so it's best to go big before the teams dropping get a chance to reload ( they won't take 10 years of hit & miss).

*****************************************************************************************************************

In the misunderstood interview Gaudreau gave he was also fairly clear on the window being open but that it'd get tougher after a few more years.

The one maybe two interesting scenerios that will evolve surrounding replacement are Backlund and Giordano. Backlund is more immediate and I would like to see the team keep him for another few season but any new contract has to be marketable and moveable. In all honesty, I would give Giordano 2 more season and trade him. In addition to this I would be extending at least one of Brodie and Hamonic. Goalies appear to have a path in place, just a matter of competition and who comes out on top.

With our forward group I am excited and almost anticipating the time after Stajan, Backlund, Frolik and Brouwer are gone as we have some very interesting prospects coming soon.

[420since1974]

According to Cap Friendly, Giordano cannot be traded until 2020/2021.

At that time, he will have to list 19 teams that he can be traded to.

[MAC331]

40 minutes ago, 420since1974 said:

According to Cap Friendly, Giordano cannot be traded until 2020/2021.

At that time, he will have to list 19 teams that he can be traded to.

Does this mean at the end of the 2018/19 season he could be traded or after the 2020/21 season ? Either is OK for the consideration.

[travel_dude]

 

22 minutes ago, MAC331 said:

Does this mean at the end of the 2018/19 season he could be traded or after the 2020/21 season ? Either is OK for the consideration.

 

Hover over the NTC and it tells you.  It's the 20/21 season.

 

https://www.capfriendly.com/teams/flames

[The_People1]

On 8/9/2017 at 2:14 PM, Flyerfan52 said:

 If Bennett starts slow/bad I see him getting moved around Christmas since by now he's had enough time to know he has to impress early to rise in the ranks (if he doesn't look like he'll make still pending next year UFA Backlund look disposable he becomes a disposable asset himself).

 

I hope Bennett doesn't hold it like Johnny and miss camp.  That's a recipe for certain disaster.  Which means he won't get going until November.  Which means he will most likely get traded in favor of keeping Backlund long term.

[conundrumed]

24 minutes ago, The_People1 said:

 

I hope Bennett doesn't hold it like Johnny and miss camp.  That's a recipe for certain disaster.  Which means he won't get going until November.  Which means he will most likely get traded in favor of keeping Backlund long term.

Doesn't make sense that he would, lest BT lowballed him too much. I'd guess term may be between them, but there are still some fine young RFA's yet to be signed.

Happens every year, I'm not sweating it.

[420since1974]

Personally, I'm not going to stress out like I did last year with Monahan and Gaudreau.

Bennettt will sign when he signs.

My guess is 2 - 3 years at $2.5M - $3.5M.

I think that he is eligible for Salary Arbitration in 2018/2019, and could become a UFA as early as 2021/2022.

 

I have some faith that Treliving will be able to re-sign Backlund to a contract that does not cripple the team (4 years at $5M per?), but it will be darn tough.

If Stajan's replacement at 4C for 2018/2019 (Jankowski?) is on an ELC, there's an extra $2.2M+ to spare for at least one year.

They might be able to replace Versteeg with an ELC player (Klimchuk, Poirier, Shinkaruk?), but that would only save around $800k, and only for a year.

Maybe another $500k could be saved, if Gilles or Rittich can replace Lack at their Qualifying Offer price level.

Outside of that, they'd probably have to look at trading a roster player (Brouwer, Frolik, or Stone) for prospects/draft picks  and hope that someone else from Stockton can step up.

Last resort, pray that the Salary Cap rises a few M.

 

The tight spot in the Flame's Cap future might be in 2019/2020.

Tkachuk will likely need a substantial raise one year before Brouwer's "15 team NTC contract" expires.

Of course, if one of the goalie prospects can become the Flame's starter that season, Smith's $4.25M will be gone, which will free up a couple of M.

[MAC331]

13 hours ago, 420since1974 said:

Personally, I'm not going to stress out like I did last year with Monahan and Gaudreau.

Bennettt will sign when he signs.

My guess is 2 - 3 years at $2.5M - $3.5M.

I think that he is eligible for Salary Arbitration in 2018/2019, and could become a UFA as early as 2021/2022.

 

I have some faith that Treliving will be able to re-sign Backlund to a contract that does not cripple the team (4 years at $5M per?), but it will be darn tough.

If Stajan's replacement at 4C for 2018/2019 (Jankowski?) is on an ELC, there's an extra $2.2M+ to spare for at least one year.

They might be able to replace Versteeg with an ELC player (Klimchuk, Poirier, Shinkaruk?), but that would only save around $800k, and only for a year.

Maybe another $500k could be saved, if Gilles or Rittich can replace Lack at their Qualifying Offer price level.

Outside of that, they'd probably have to look at trading a roster player (Brouwer, Frolik, or Stone) for prospects/draft picks  and hope that someone else from Stockton can step up.

Last resort, pray that the Salary Cap rises a few M.

 

The tight spot in the Flame's Cap future might be in 2019/2020.

Tkachuk will likely need a substantial raise one year before Brouwer's "15 team NTC contract" expires.

Of course, if one of the goalie prospects can become the Flame's starter that season, Smith's $4.25M will be gone, which will free up a couple of M.

It is always hard to know how it will all go down but the players that will have to be rolled out at some points are Stajan (known), Versteeg (known), Backlund, Frolik, Brouwer, Giordano, Smith (known) and Lack. We have Goalies coming, it would be great to see BT keep Brodie, Hamilton, Hamonic longer and we have some very good Forward prospects coming within these replacement timeframes.

[travel_dude]

18 hours ago, The_People1 said:

 

I hope Bennett doesn't hold it like Johnny and miss camp.  That's a recipe for certain disaster.  Which means he won't get going until November.  Which means he will most likely get traded in favor of keeping Backlund long term.

 

From my understaning, Johnny's agent is also Draisaitl's agent.  Pity the Oilers.  Johnny's deal went to midnight of the 11th hour and was settled for a "bargain".  Draisaitl isn't any more deserving, but they seem to be stuck at $8m.  Pretty high for a sometimes winger, sometimes center.

[cccsberg]

On 2017-08-08 at 9:07 AM, MAC331 said:

I think our team is in a good position to build from within for a good stretch of time. We may not have some ideal situations this coming season however I can see where possible improvement begins to take shape. Now some of this always depends on the progress of certain individuals but I think BT has started to assemble the right pieces. Putting certain players with other players is never an exact science and this is why I really like this pairs strategy for our forward lines. If you can get two that are exceptional together chances are you can slot in another complimentary talent at various times for various reasons. A team will need some flexibility throughout a full season due to injuries or some situations getting stale. Going with the pairings that we know work so far and where we could take the strategy might resemble this below as early as part of this season and beyond.

Gaudreau, Monahan, _____________

__________, Backlund, Frolik

Tkachuk, Bennett, _______________

Ferland, Jankowski, ______________

This IMO starts to define your core and what need to happen with planning to replace certain players at the appropriate times.

Right now our fillers are Versteeg, Brouwer, Lazar, Hamilton, Hathaway, Poirier, Shinkaruk, Klimchuk, Mangiapane and Foo. Where all this goes will depend on who stays and who goes between now and the 2018/19 season but I expect Stajan, Versteeg and Brouwer to be gone by then.

I like the comment and thinking.  At least for the start of this season I would keep Ferland with Gaudreau/Monahan as they seemed to work well together both protection and production-wise and I believe Ferland can continue to develop into a true power forward in all aspects.  

 

Putting Tkachuk with Bennett I like.  Bennett doesn't seem to be strong on passing, he's more like a prototypical power forward too, without as much power, and I believe would do great with someone feeding him.  That could be Gaudreau, of course, but the team would be better if more lines were effective so I'd be looking to get someone like Mangiapanne or Foo or Lazar(?) on his other wing.

[cccsberg]

On 2017-08-08 at 5:39 PM, robrob74 said:

 

I feel like, even if Bennett improves only a bit on last season, it's a bonus for the team. He's a good penalty killer, he is a fairly decent two-way player. Let's say he gets 15-20 goals and 15-20 assists? That's decent third line contributions. 

 

Personally, if it were me coaching, I would have him on the pp as it's a boost for his morale. He might gain more confidence 5 vs 5. 

 

I agree, growth within is the way forward now.

Growth from within is pretty much the formula from all successful teams.  I can't recall the last team that won through trades or a UFA signing.  I guess PP with Kessel could be argued, however they were already a powerhouse and champions before he arrived.  This is the year to figure out our own internal prospects and we have not only an already full roster but many internal options.  Just on RW Foo, Poirier, Lazar and Pribyl come to mind immediately as possible breakout guys this year.  

[MAC331]

1 hour ago, cccsberg said:

I like the comment and thinking.  At least for the start of this season I would keep Ferland with Gaudreau/Monahan as they seemed to work well together both protection and production-wise and I believe Ferland can continue to develop into a true power forward in all aspects.  

 

Putting Tkachuk with Bennett I like.  Bennett doesn't seem to be strong on passing, he's more like a prototypical power forward too, without as much power, and I believe would do great with someone feeding him.  That could be Gaudreau, of course, but the team would be better if more lines were effective so I'd be looking to get someone like Mangiapanne or Foo or Lazar(?) on his other wing.

I don't think anyone should forget that Tkachuk himself is a good passer and playmaker. Lazar I know everyone is skeptical however he has some good qualities. He has good size, he thinks the game and is a positionally sound player much like Monahan. I think he deserves a chance to show what he can do when he also has some good talent to play with, something never offered in OTT. Perhaps as you point out Bennett's style is more that of a power forward, well that doesn't mean he can't be that as a C with the right partners.

I look at Ferland like this, if he plays with Gaudreau and Monahan and plays well the team benefits. If he plays average he likely learns and falls back to play with Backlund another good line and the team benefits.

Can Foo be the RW we are waiting for to round out Gaudreau and Monahan ? Right now this is a big MAYBE, I hope so but I also don't expect him to walk in and take the job. I would like to see a line of Poirier LW, Jankowski C and Foo RW in Stockton playing together and ready for NHL action when called upon.

[Flyerfan52]

3 hours ago, cccsberg said:

Growth from within is pretty much the formula from all successful teams.  I can't recall the last team that won through trades or a UFA signing.  I guess PP with Kessel could be argued, however they were already a powerhouse and champions before he arrived.  This is the year to figure out our own internal prospects and we have not only an already full roster but many internal options.  Just on RW Foo, Poirier, Lazar and Pribyl come to mind immediately as possible breakout guys this year.  

LA Kings.

For 2011-12 they traded for Mike Richards & Jeff Carter among others.

2013-14 Gaborik was 1 of those added.

 

In the intervening year between SCs they traded for Robyn Regehr.

[cccsberg]

1 hour ago, Flyerfan52 said:

LA Kings.

For 2011-12 they traded for Mike Richards & Jeff Carter among others.

2013-14 Gaborik was 1 of those added.

 

In the intervening year between SCs they traded for Robyn Regehr.

For 2011-12 I agree, big parts of their success.  Not sure how much either Reghyr or Gaborik contributed to their second Cup.....

[cccsberg]

The delay in the Bennett signing seems to be portending some difficulties between the two parties.  I expect BT is applying the screws to bring SB into line with the rest of the Flames, while Bennett's agent is trying to leverage some of the recent high signings.  It will be very disappointing if the deal doesn't get done in the next couple of weeks, before training camp.

 

Looking at training camp I'm wondering how much the Flames will be open to new prospects, especially considering little openness previously and the team's good success the later 2/3 of last season.  We did make the goalie changes, as well as dropped Wideman, Engelland and Bouma, but unless Lack bombs and opens the doors for Rittich I'm not sure what openings are available.  Clearly at least one D position and possibly 1 forward spot without some significant moves elsewhere.  

[Flyerfan52]

1 hour ago, cccsberg said:

The delay in the Bennett signing seems to be portending some difficulties between the two parties.  I expect BT is applying the screws to bring SB into line with the rest of the Flames, while Bennett's agent is trying to leverage some of the recent high signings.  It will be very disappointing if the deal doesn't get done in the next couple of weeks, before training camp.

 

My understanding is other than 2 points (term & $s) BT & Bennett are in complete agreement.

[cccsberg]

3 hours ago, Flyerfan52 said:

My understanding is other than 2 points (term & $s) BT & Bennett are in complete agreement.

As in pretty much every signing. 

 

[redfire11]

5 hours ago, cccsberg said:

The delay in the Bennett signing seems to be portending some difficulties between the two parties.  I expect BT is applying the screws to bring SB into line with the rest of the Flames, while Bennett's agent is trying to leverage some of the recent high signings.  It will be very disappointing if the deal doesn't get done in the next couple of weeks, before training camp.

 

 

If SB misses training and early into the season that could negatively impact his career. Look at how JG struggled at the beginning of last season after his hold out. I see SB getting a bridge deal 3 years and if he misses any part of training camp and early season his production numbers could be worse than last year. Plus he might not get a preferred role on the team which could hurt his cashing in in 3 years. Yes he still needs to prove himself but he won't get far on 4th line minutes.