So Where do we go from here? Analysis & Predictions

[cccsberg]

1 hour ago, MAC331 said:

I think you will be disappointed if those are your expectations.

Bergevin is a terrible GM and ownership in MON doesn't seem to realize it. You might be able to trade Poirier for Beaulieu D as it appears Bergevin has soured on him.

Like I said, I don't "expect" much, BT seems to like small, incremental improvements and likely a bunch of tweaking is what we will get.  I may be in for a big surprise.  Time will tell.

[Carty]

16 hours ago, The_People1 said:

The evidence to support tanking as a viable rebuild strategy is there and backed up by empirical history.  It's too bad most fans brought emotions to a fact fight.  They only won the emotional argument but clearly lost the fact argument.  Fact is, tanking works more often to win Cups than not tanking.

 

          

[Cowtownguy]

17 hours ago, The_People1 said:

The evidence to support tanking as a viable rebuild strategy is there and backed up by empirical history.  It's too bad most fans brought emotions to a fact fight.  They only won the emotional argument but clearly lost the fact argument.  Fact is, tanking works more often to win Cups than not tanking.  Fact is also, going through the process of a tank emotionally sucks.

It saved the Penguin franchise, didn't it? The NHL has tried giving the best team the best pick, the worst team the best pick, and now favouring the worst teams, but somewhat randomized at the bottom. They have literally chosen the worst strategies of all. The obvious solution is to completely randomize the lottery. Teams already have an incentive to win - more profit. Now, eliminate the desire to tank. Jeebus, it is so easy.

 

Johnny is clearly an exciting player, but I sure would like to see some changes in his game. First, he needs to just stop yapping at the refs every time he leaves the ice. If he was charged for damages to box doors, the dude would owe the Flames money. Second, he needs to simplify a lot of plays to reduce those turnovers. Third, he needs to relax on the road. He gets a lot of chances on the road and pulls a Byron when we need him to bury them. He is a great player who needs some maturing is all. I just hope that GG is doing that work with him. Sometimes, I wonder if the best players get inadequate coaching direction.

 

 

[cross16]

18 hours ago, The_People1 said:

.

 

The evidence to support tanking as a viable rebuild strategy is there and backed up by empirical history.  It's too bad most fans brought emotions to a fact fight.  They only won the emotional argument but clearly lost the fact argument.  Fact is, tanking works more often to win Cups than not tanking.  Fact is also, going through the process of a tank emotionally sucks.

 

 

Well except for the fact that teams have failed more often than succeeded using that criteria. See Islanders, Lightning, Florida, Phoenix/Arizona, Avalanche, Columbus, St Louis, Capitals, 

But your right past is the past. Future is bright and that's all that should matter

[MAC331]

3 hours ago, cccsberg said:

Like I said, I don't "expect" much, BT seems to like small, incremental improvements and likely a bunch of tweaking is what we will get.  I may be in for a big surprise.  Time will tell.

If the moves are strategic towards making the team better is what's important. A move such as moving Stajan for two purposes, covering a possible need and opening a position for Jankowski. BT will need a good plan for the bottom 4 defenseman group. He will be active in sorting out our goaltending situation.

[Carty]

11 minutes ago, cross16 said:

Well except for the fact that teams have failed more often than succeeded using that criteria. See Islanders, Lightning, Florida, Phoenix/Arizona, Avalanche, Columbus, St Louis, Capitals, 

 

Don't forget the Oilers, tanking failed for them year after year...   11 seasons with no playoffs...   Then they just got lucky and won the lottery at the best time...

[The_People1]

11 minutes ago, cross16 said:

 

Well except for the fact that teams have failed more often than succeeded using that criteria. See Islanders, Lightning, Florida, Phoenix/Arizona, Avalanche, Columbus, St Louis, Capitals, 

But your right past is the past. Future is bright and that's all that should matter

 

The contrary is, only the Red Wings have won a Cup in the last 13 years without tanking (unless Yzerman counts).

[conundrumed]

4 hours ago, cccsberg said:

Like I said, I don't "expect" much, BT seems to like small, incremental improvements and likely a bunch of tweaking is what we will get.  I may be in for a big surprise.  Time will tell.

And we saw that with the 2 Dmen adds. We improved fairly significantly after that.

I'm fine with tweaks, personally.

With the hopes that further improved play by our current young forwards becomes enough improvement. Another year starting with a system they now understand, etc.

I also think that you have to grow as a team and can't rely on the big, sexy fa signing to cure all that ails you.

 

[MAC331]

19 minutes ago, conundrumed said:

And we saw that with the 2 Dmen adds. We improved fairly significantly after that.

I'm fine with tweaks, personally.

With the hopes that further improved play by our current young forwards becomes enough improvement. Another year starting with a system they now understand, etc.

I also think that you have to grow as a team and can't rely on the big, sexy fa signing to cure all that ails you.

 

Any UFA signing should have a definite purpose towards advancing the team direction. Take last season and maybe the one before it with Brouwer and Frolik, ideally you would want those players at 3.5M but BT anted up another million in each case. Last season I think the focus was on getting some size and additional experience for our RWS, in came Brouwer and Chiasson. The season we picked up Frolik was a need to get better defensively and some support for a young core. Versteeg was to good a deal to pass up. I think we found out a lot of things this season as the systems were learned and carried out properly.

Chiasson was not the top line RW answer.

Ferland did well there but this spot remains a position we could upgrade.

Tkachuk shocked everyone but zima with his play and effect on this team. This guy only gets better IMO.

Bennett fought through the musical chairs scenario for wingers but emerge into the player we were waiting to see all season.

Brouwer was disappointing on ice but I have to believe he helped with bringing he attitude and room along to keep encouraging the younger players. I don't think he is a lost cause but I would sure like to see him on a line that brings out some effectiveness from him.

Gaudreau was as frustrating as he was exciting this season, we need him to mature into a confident force. He has to know his team mates have his back.

Monahan matured a lot this season IMO in the circle and carrying the puck but could still use some edge to out there.

[conundrumed]

Question: did JG go back to school last summer to complete his degree?

Outside of other factors, could that have played a role in his readiness this year?

I know most players don't take much time off in the offseason, maybe 3 weeks, before hitting the gym hard and working on their shortcomings. Unless, of course, they have injuries to deal with.

[phoenix66]

See, I think we need to ask ourselves, who do we want to be..Edmonton or Chicago?

 

Chicago.. build a system around 4 or 5 Immovable Core pieces, and by the time you have to seriously consider moving one or more of them , you have 3 cups under your belt and are still winning the conference

Edmonton-- live in shame and humility for 11 seasons, stock up on top picks, only to finally make the playoffs and have at best a 2 year window to win a cup before you have to lose a ton of key pieces due to salary concerns

 

Personally I want to be Chicago, so I have no issue with us not getting those top picks the last few years , we are trending upwards and regardless of differeing opinions many seriously see them as a force in the very near future. We manage our cap and continue to develop good talent we will be a contender for years after the Oilers have to blow it up again .. this year they have to Pay Draisaitl.. next year is Connor .. those 2 raises alone will eat the 10 M they have free right now . And lets not forget , PC's downfall in Boston was creating Cap Hell.. albeit after at least getitng one cup and another finals appearance ;.. he could realistically duplicate that feat in Edmonton 

 

Nope, you ride the core, improve the weak areas .. and throw a stud in net until the system provides you with the next goalie of the future 

[jjgallow]

1 hour ago, Carty said:

 

Don't forget the Oilers, tanking failed for them year after year...   11 seasons with no playoffs...   Then they just got lucky and won the lottery at the best time...

 

Sure...they got lucky....right after they got that new arena built

[conundrumed]

6 minutes ago, phoenix66 said:

Edmonton-- live in shame and humility for 11 seasons, stock up on top picks, only to finally make the playoffs and have at best a 2 year window to win a cup before you have to lose a ton of key pieces due to salary concerns

Excellent point, it will be interesting to see how they can adjust to that reality.

RNH and Eberle will definitely be gone and you're left to replace that.

All of the talk will be, "why did we give Lucic that ridiculous contract?"

[jjgallow]

5 minutes ago, phoenix66 said:

See, I think we need to ask ourselves, who do we want to be..Edmonton or Chicago?

 

Chicago.. build a system around 4 or 5 Immovable Core pieces, and by the time you have to seriously consider moving one or more of them , you have 3 cups under your belt and are still winning the conference

Edmonton-- live in shame and humility for 11 seasons, stock up on top picks, only to finally make the playoffs and have at best a 2 year window to win a cup before you have to lose a ton of key pieces due to salary concerns

 

Personally I want to be Chicago, so I have no issue with us not getting those top picks the last few years , we are trending upwards and regardless of differeing opinions many seriously see them as a force in the very near future. We manage our cap and continue to develop good talent we will be a contender for years after the Oilers have to blow it up again .. this year they have to Pay Draisaitl.. next year is Connor .. those 2 raises alone will eat the 10 M they have free right now . And lets not forget , PC's downfall in Boston was creating Cap Hell.. albeit after at least getitng one cup and another finals appearance ;.. he could realistically duplicate that feat in Edmonton 

 

Nope, you ride the core, improve the weak areas .. and throw a stud in net until the system provides you with the next goalie of the future 

 

That's the whole thing though:   Edmonton Created that situation by Trying to be Chicago.

 

They had all those failures riding their core.   Yes, at One time back in 2006, they tanked.  As did Chicago prior to their cup wins (2003-2006)

[rickross]

2 minutes ago, conundrumed said:

Excellent point, it will be interesting to see how they can adjust to that reality.

RNH and Eberle will definitely be gone and you're left to replace that.

All of the talk will be, "why did we give Lucic that ridiculous contract?"

Yup..they are headed for salary cap hell in the next 2 years, once Drasaitl and McDavid are locked up they'll be in tough to fill out the rest of the teams depth. RNH has another 4 years on his contract so you're right, that likely leaves Eberle as the odd man out...but they'll still have to ride him out until his contract expires..$6mill isn't easy to move these days, not with his level of production. I doubt they can afford Maroon after his break out season even though he's got another year at a bargain price and Nurse will be looking for a raise soon too, not too mention they don't have a bonafide backup for when they run Talbot into the ground in a few years. I can't see McDavid signing for anything less than $8mill on his next contract, plus they still need to fill out some of their D. They won't have a clue how to draft outside of the top 5 so maybe they try and offload some assets to Vegas to free and space and maybe get a higher ranking pick?

[phoenix66]

19 minutes ago, jjgallow said:

 

That's the whole thing though:   Edmonton Created that situation by Trying to be Chicago.

 

They had all those failures riding their core.   Yes, at One time back in 2006, they tanked.  As did Chicago prior to their cup wins (2003-2006)

nope,, they tanked right up to Connor. they hid it well  by saying the right things(It will be different this year !),  but at the same time riding visibly inept management, coaching , even player personnel. They had better players on the farm at  times than on the main team. They win the right to draft Connor and suddenly they decide to hire Competent management and coaching ? nope I dont believe for one second they wanted to get any better until it was arena time .

[conundrumed]

6 minutes ago, rickross said:

Yup..they are headed for salary cap hell in the next 2 years, once Drasaitl and McDavid are locked up they'll be in tough to fill out the rest of the teams depth. RNH has another 4 years on his contract so you're right, that likely leaves Eberle as the odd man out...but they'll still have to ride him out until his contract expires..$6mill isn't easy to move these days, not with his level of production. I doubt they can afford Maroon after his break out season even though he's got another year at a bargain price and Nurse will be looking for a raise soon too, not too mention they don't have a bonafide backup for when they run Talbot into the ground in a few years. I can't see McDavid signing for anything less than $8mill on his next contract, plus they still need to fill out some of their D. They won't have a clue how to draft outside of the top 5 so maybe they try and offload some assets to Vegas to free and space and maybe get a higher ranking pick?

They have the same issue if they don't. If this is Talbot's norm, he has 2 more years at 4.17 to prove it.

If he does, he is just as important as McDavid and how much does that cost you?

[phoenix66]

11 minutes ago, rickross said:

. I can't see McDavid signing for anything less than $8mill on his next contract, plus they still need to fill out some of their D. They won't have a clue how to draft outside of the top 5 so maybe they try and offload some assets to Vegas to free and space and maybe get a higher ranking pick?

8???  I dont see him less than 10. The irony is, as Flames fans we almost want the Oliers to win a cup or at least come very close.. then they lose their only possible argument as to why he shouldn't be paid more than the Chicago Twins, Sid , and Geno

 

but yes..

Nurse, Draisaitl, Connor, Maroon, etc.. will wreak havoc.. will interesting to see what Draisaitl gets paid this off season.. if he gets anywhere near Johnny or Tarasenko money ,  their cap is in serious trouble the year after 

[rickross]

2 minutes ago, phoenix66 said:

8???  I dont see him less than 10. The irony is, as Flames fans we almost want the Oliers to win a cup or at least come very close.. then they lose their only possible argument as to why he shouldn't be paid more than the Chicago Twins, Sid , and Geno

 

but yes..

Nurse, Draisaitl, Connor, Maroon, etc.. will wreak havoc.. will interesting to see what Draisaitl gets paid this off season.. if he gets anywhere near Johnny or Tarasenko money ,  their cap is in serious trouble the year after 

I agree..the kid's worth 10 and likely getting paid accordingly but if the Oilers are dumb and try signing him to some shorter term bridge contract to avoid handcuffing the team so early on...just maybe they get him under $10m for a couple of years before extending him for life at $10mill+. It's unlikely but its the Oilers. I could see Draisatil getting his $6mill as he's already outperformed the likes of Nuge and Eberle so i'm sure his agent will push for that . Nurse is a bit harder to discern as to what he'll command, lets not forget they still have "Pool Party" to sign in a couple years so if he takes off they are just hooped. 

[DirtyDeeds]

5 hours ago, Carty said:

 

          

[CheersMan]

1 hour ago, rickross said:

Yup..they are headed for salary cap hell in the next 2 years, once Drasaitl and McDavid are locked up they'll be in tough to fill out the rest of the teams depth. RNH has another 4 years on his contract so you're right, that likely leaves Eberle as the odd man out...but they'll still have to ride him out until his contract expires..$6mill isn't easy to move these days, not with his level of production. I doubt they can afford Maroon after his break out season even though he's got another year at a bargain price and Nurse will be looking for a raise soon too, not too mention they don't have a bonafide backup for when they run Talbot into the ground in a few years. I can't see McDavid signing for anything less than $8mill on his next contract, plus they still need to fill out some of their D. They won't have a clue how to draft outside of the top 5 so maybe they try and offload some assets to Vegas to free and space and maybe get a higher ranking pick?

 

1 hour ago, phoenix66 said:

8???  I dont see him less than 10. The irony is, as Flames fans we almost want the Oliers to win a cup or at least come very close.. then they lose their only possible argument as to why he shouldn't be paid more than the Chicago Twins, Sid , and Geno

 

but yes..

Nurse, Draisaitl, Connor, Maroon, etc.. will wreak havoc.. will interesting to see what Draisaitl gets paid this off season.. if he gets anywhere near Johnny or Tarasenko money ,  their cap is in serious trouble the year after 

 

1 hour ago, rickross said:

I agree..the kid's worth 10 and likely getting paid accordingly but if the Oilers are dumb and try signing him to some shorter term bridge contract to avoid handcuffing the team so early on...just maybe they get him under $10m for a couple of years before extending him for life at $10mill+. It's unlikely but its the Oilers. I could see Draisatil getting his $6mill as he's already outperformed the likes of Nuge and Eberle so i'm sure his agent will push for that . Nurse is a bit harder to discern as to what he'll command, lets not forget they still have "Pool Party" to sign in a couple years so if he takes off they are just hooped. 

I see the Oilers window as today, then slipping off.  I think their cap troubles start this offseason.  Sure McD is two years away from cashing in but $’s and term spent on supporting players this offseason and certainly next offseason will start to bite into McD’s payday.  The CBA allows for a single player to take 20% of the cap.  If there is a player in todays game that could challenge that, it’s McD imo.  20% x $73M= $14M/season.  He is already the fastest player in the game and capable of handling the puck at full speed.  He seems to have a good head on his shoulders and is a natural leader.  If I’m his agent my ask will be max, $14 x 8yr, Cup or no Cup.  Now build your team Oilers, hope your cupboards are full of high end prospects on entry level deals.

[jjgallow]

4 hours ago, phoenix66 said:

nope,, they tanked right up to Connor. they hid it well  by saying the right things(It will be different this year !),  but at the same time riding visibly inept management, coaching , even player personnel. They had better players on the farm at  times than on the main team. They win the right to draft Connor and suddenly they decide to hire Competent management and coaching ? nope I dont believe for one second they wanted to get any better until it was arena time .

 

Lol.  I won't argue with you there. 

 

Just saying, they both stuck with their "core", lol.   And they both emerged from tanking, or failure of some kind.

 

But you're right, it's not fair of me to say Edmonton tried to copy Chicago's recipe.  Even though that's what they'd claim.

 

That said, and back to the point....  Chicago didn't patch things up.  They sucked for a while too (not 11 years), and did what they needed to do.   The Flames did patchwork.   They patchworked themselves through some of the most incredible drafts of our lives.

 

To answer the question of when tanking does/doesn't work...a lot of it has to do with the strength of those drafts.  

 

The last time we had such a string of strong drafts was 2003-2005.    The making of the Pittsburgh Penguins.   That was the opportunity we passed up.   And we could have done it Legimately.  Simply by not patchworking.

[The_People1]

If not tanking in a rebuild wins more Cups than tanking, then there should evidence of this everywhere.

[The_People1]

2 hours ago, CheersMan said:

 

 

I see the Oilers window as today, then slipping off.  I think their cap troubles start this offseason.  Sure McD is two years away from cashing in but $’s and term spent on supporting players this offseason and certainly next offseason will start to bite into McD’s payday.  The CBA allows for a single player to take 20% of the cap.  If there is a player in todays game that could challenge that, it’s McD imo.  20% x $73M= $14M/season.  He is already the fastest player in the game and capable of handling the puck at full speed.  He seems to have a good head on his shoulders and is a natural leader.  If I’m his agent my ask will be max, $14 x 8yr, Cup or no Cup.  Now build your team Oilers, hope your cupboards are full of high end prospects on entry level deals.

 

But that said, we should save up our draft picks and poach him.  Four 31st picks overall.  Good deal.

[Flyerfan52]

13 hours ago, Carty said:

 

Don't forget the Oilers, tanking failed for them year after year...   11 seasons with no playoffs...   Then they just got lucky and won the lottery at the best time...

The Oilers timed it wrong tanking for the others before lucking into McDavid.

The Pens were mentioned. They picked the right time to tank for Mario Lemieau (& after kissing his (.) getting him to sign) & later with Crosby. They have it down to an art.