What Is Best For Matthew Tkachuk

[cross16]

1 hour ago, robrob74 said:

 

What about 3M plus for4th liners?

 

The "4th liner" with 17 points in his last 35 games?

[cross16]

For me on Tkachuk I think You say it's between 6-8 years and 7-9 mill AAV. They can negotiate anywhere in between that and see what years they can get for what AAV. Anything outside that I wouldn't be happy with. 

[CheersMan]

I think I have seen enough of Tkachuk to conclude that BT needs to hammer out an 8 yr deal, so long as Tkachuk is willing. We are not the Leaf’s who are desperately trying to keep things together.  BT has us in great shape Cap wise. Tkachuk is a keeper, we need to lock him up max term because it won’t be any easier down the road. 8x8. BT will need to shed some existing contracts in the off season to make room.

[travel_dude]

1 hour ago, CheersMan said:

I think I have seen enough of Tkachuk to conclude that BT needs to hammer out an 8 yr deal, so long as Tkachuk is willing. We are not the Leaf’s who are desperately trying to keep things together.  BT has us in great shape Cap wise. Tkachuk is a keeper, we need to lock him up max term because it won’t be any easier down the road. 8x8. BT will need to shed some existing contracts in the off season to make room.

 

If he could get that done, I'm ffine with it.  Not sure it will happen, unless talks with Marner drag out.

5 x 6.9 for Nylander.

Matthews isn;t in the conversation.

Less money than Draisaitl signed for, but he's a C.

He also has scored more.

 

 

[pikey7883]

Tkachuk seems off tonight again as well, and is trying to engage in the scrums after the plays. Which I love, but he can’t do it with backs and Frolik. I think Bennett needs to be his center, so they can drag each other in and out of battles. 

[conundrumed]

14 hours ago, pikey7883 said:

Tkachuk seems off tonight again as well, and is trying to engage in the scrums after the plays. Which I love, but he can’t do it with backs and Frolik. I think Bennett needs to be his center, so they can drag each other in and out of battles. 

I agree. To me, it's his decision-making with the puck. Still forcing a lot of passes.

[robrob74]

19 hours ago, pikey7883 said:

Tkachuk seems off tonight again as well, and is trying to engage in the scrums after the plays. Which I love, but he can’t do it with backs and Frolik. I think Bennett needs to be his center, so they can drag each other in and out of battles. 

 

5 hours ago, conundrumed said:

I agree. To me, it's his decision-making with the puck. Still forcing a lot of passes.

 

Its  kind of why I see him around where Nylander has signed for. Most I would go is 7.5, but I am not the GM nor his agent. I see him as important but I also don’t see him as important as Gaudreau or even close to Matthews. I just can’t see him in 8.5-9 range. He doesn’t drive office like players in that range do. 

 

I am not questioning his ability or the fact he’s really good. He’s got a great hockey mind. Love the player! 

[travel_dude]

5 minutes ago, robrob74 said:

 

 

Its  kind of why I see him around where Nylander has signed for. Most I would go is 7.5, but I am not the GM nor his agent. I see him as important but I also don’t see him as important as Gaudreau or even close to Matthews. I just can’t see him in 8.5-9 range. He doesn’t drive office like players in that range do. 

 

I am not questioning his ability or the fact he’s really good. He’s got a great hockey mind. Love the player! 

 

The problem is that Nylander's deal was an outlier.  one year at 12m prorated, but included a 2m signing bonus.

So, it's approx 6.9m for 5 years and one year at 10.2m cap hits.

If we signed Tkachuk for 5, we would be buying exactly one year of UFA.

Maybe the proce is lower, but Tkachuk will only get better in that time.

In 3 years, JH's deal expires, and in 4 Monahan's.

In 5 years, Lindholm and Backlund.

Those first two are going to be trouble.

 

[robrob74]

1 hour ago, travel_dude said:

 

The problem is that Nylander's deal was an outlier.  one year at 12m prorated, but included a 2m signing bonus.

So, it's approx 6.9m for 5 years and one year at 10.2m cap hits.

If we signed Tkachuk for 5, we would be buying exactly one year of UFA.

Maybe the proce is lower, but Tkachuk will only get better in that time.

In 3 years, JH's deal expires, and in 4 Monahan's.

In 5 years, Lindholm and Backlund.

Those first two are going to be trouble.

 

 

I guess I feel he’d only be worth 7.5 x 8 years. I see the part of his game that makes him worth more deteriorating or he’s not doing as much of. 

[The_People1]

2 hours ago, robrob74 said:

 

I guess I feel he’d only be worth 7.5 x 8 years. I see the part of his game that makes him worth more deteriorating or he’s not doing as much of. 

 

If Tkachuk only costs 7.5 x 8, then that's a no brainer.  But 8 years is going to be more like 9-mil in my opinion.  It's buying 4 UFA years.  It's going to cost a lot.

[pikey7883]

As far as his contract is concerned, this little slump might be saving BT’s bacon right now, lol. I think a fair contract is 7 years, which allows him to go to UFA at 28, still young enough for one more good contract. And at that time frame I don’t see $7 - $7.25 out of the question. Percentage of the cap wise it’s the same as Gaudreaus, and Tkachuk gets paid, with the chance for one more big payday, especially if he has a couple cups to his name. 

[bosn111]

If I were to go by comparables of contracts based on points, goals, assists alone to base on dollar values, I can't honestly see over 8 mil per season for Tkachuk. He is playing a second line role who is very good, but he is not top on the Flames. For LW right now, guys like Giroux, Hall, Panarin and Gaudreau run about 75 - 80 thousand per point. goals range 150 - 280 and 110 - 120 per assist. If you account for what each player brings to their team, the others are all more valuable to their respective team than Tkachuk currently for the Flames. I am not trashing on Chucky, just pointing out comparables for value. We can assume that Gaudreau is looking for a raise, and so his numbers will likely be adjusted. But if we look at guys like Forsberg, Huberdeau, Landeskog, and E. Kane, the ranges are staying relatively the same with Kane hitting 98K per point on his recently signed contract. even if we extrapolate Chucky's numbers to a full 82 games, multiply his resulting points by 100K per point, then we hit 8.5 million per season. That is being a generous number in my opinion. I just don't see the Flames wiling to go higher, based on direct comparables (Kane). In all likelihood, they will likely push for less, even long term, as Kane is a proven commodity on multiple teams.

 

Gaudreau, based on average points per season should be in the 9 - 10 range. I simply can't justify Chucky getting even 8.5 with no trophies, no awards, no all star games etc. getting significantly more than his comparables. With Huberdeau, Kane, Panarin, Landeskog and Forsberg all making 6 or less, I just don't see it. The Flames will pass off Leaf and Oiler signings as outliers and not the norm, pushing Chucky likely closer to 7.5 - 8 range at most, even long term. The guys listed here will help bring the level headedness of contracts back down away from the Matthews', Marners and McDavid level contracts. Remember that Tarasenko is only 7.5 for 7 more years and Nylander (After this year) is only 6.9 and change for 5 more years. Taking into account inflation, I would max Chucky at 8 mil per. 

 

I don't see Monahan getting as big a raise as Johnny. Even though they work well together, it's Johnny that drives the line and Mony benefits. Likely he gets similar to Tkachuk in the 8 range, maybe as high as 8.5, but again, no trophies, no all star etc, I just don't see the same resume for Mony as Johnny.

 

Who knows, I could be wrong. I do hope contracts like those given by Leafs and Oilers get balanced by more level headed teams.

 

Just my thoughts though.

[travel_dude]

2 hours ago, pikey7883 said:

As far as his contract is concerned, this little slump might be saving BT’s bacon right now, lol. I think a fair contract is 7 years, which allows him to go to UFA at 28, still young enough for one more good contract. And at that time frame I don’t see $7 - $7.25 out of the question. Percentage of the cap wise it’s the same as Gaudreaus, and Tkachuk gets paid, with the chance for one more big payday, especially if he has a couple cups to his name. 

 

So Tkachuk is still over a point per game.  HE may not hit 82, but lets face it, you score that many and you get paid.

JH signed what?  6 years, only buying 2 years of UFA.  Even at the time it was a bargain.  In today's cap that is way more than 7 mil.

Comparing the two players isn;t really fair, because one was sheltered and played with our best C.  The other has played shutdown against the best.

We may not want to pay as much, but we don;t really have much choice.

The comps determine the paycheck for others.

Recency bias.

Other contracts signed 3 years ago mean nothing.

[imeubu]

Just a thought experiment. 

 

What could the possible "mix" be if Brady and Mathew ended up on the same team before the trade deadline... either here or Ottawa.  And yes I fully realize that the Flames are not even considering messing around with the Mathew contract now.

[Thebrewcrew]

Tkachuk has really struggled the last couple weeks. Coincidentally that’s when the talk regarding the Matthews talks and eventual deal being signed ramped up. I know how much Tkachuk loves playing and he’s a great pro but I can’t help but wonder if all the chatter about the Matthews signing and how it would effect the market for the other upcoming RFA’s has been weighing on him. He’s very plugged into what’s going on aroung the league so I could see it being on his mind 

 

We forget that he's still just a young kid and can't fault him if hes been maybe putting the cart before the horse recently. He will snap out of it

[JTech780]

So here's a question, what if a team such as Arizona comes in and offer sheets Tkachuk at $10.148m. Our compensation would be 2 1st's a 2nd and a 3rd. 

 

It would completely blow up our salary structure. Arizona has the cap space to do it. His dad played in Arizona. Chyaka seems like the type of GM who would pull off such a move. Tkachuk seems like a Chyaka type of player. Tocchet would probably be salivating at the chance to get his hands on Tkachuk.

 

Need to get Tkachuk signed and signed soon.

[redfire11]

I like Tkachuk but not at 10+ M and would jump all over the 2 1st's a 2nd and a 3rd from Ari as minimum 1 of the 2 picks will be lottery and both our selections would be protected from  the Seattle Snowflakes.

[CheersMan]

38 minutes ago, JTech780 said:

So here's a question, what if a team such as Arizona comes in and offer sheets Tkachuk at $10.148m. Our compensation would be 2 1st's a 2nd and a 3rd. 

 

It would completely blow up our salary structure. Arizona has the cap space to do it. His dad played in Arizona. Chyaka seems like the type of GM who would pull off such a move. Tkachuk seems like a Chyaka type of player. Tocchet would probably be salivating at the chance to get his hands on Tkachuk.

 

Need to get Tkachuk signed and signed soon.

Then you let him go, Tkachuk ain’t worth 10. We can spend our $ elsewhere and ARI can have the messed up salary structure.

[The_People1]

41 minutes ago, JTech780 said:

So here's a question, what if a team such as Arizona comes in and offer sheets Tkachuk at $10.148m. Our compensation would be 2 1st's a 2nd and a 3rd. 

 

It would completely blow up our salary structure. Arizona has the cap space to do it. His dad played in Arizona. Chyaka seems like the type of GM who would pull off such a move. Tkachuk seems like a Chyaka type of player. Tocchet would probably be salivating at the chance to get his hands on Tkachuk.

 

Need to get Tkachuk signed and signed soon.

 

Arizona is in no financial position to be making enemies with RFA offer sheets.  Teams will gladly offer sheet Clayton Keller next summer.

 

Look at the Oilers who offer sheeted someone and freaked out about Draisatl years later fearing payback.  You can even argue Hall, Eberle, and RNH all benefitted with overpaid contracts because their agents scared the Oilers into submission.

 

But in regards to a general RFA offer, ya, it could happen.  But I think Mitch Marner could be the first in awhile to sign one.  He's a 100-point player. 

[The_People1]

19 minutes ago, redfire11 said:

I like Tkachuk but not at 10+ M and would jump all over the 2 1st's a 2nd and a 3rd from Ari as minimum 1 of the 2 picks will be lottery and both our selections would be protected from  the Seattle Snowflakes.

 

Agreed.  It depends on who offer sheets Tkachuk.  If it's a lottery team, then you take the picks. If it's a playoff team where Tkachuk could help them win a Presidents trophy, then no.

[cross16]

I think the Flames would be incredibly stupid to let Tkachuk walk for that type of return as the odds you would get a player close the caliber of Tkachuk with those picks is very small, let alone the fact that you wouldn't get the assets until Gaudreau/Monahan etc are all outside their prime years. I don't think Arizona is going to be a lottery pick team in the near future. 

 

If Ottawa wants to do it I'd think about it but I'd still lean towards keeping Tkachuk because odds are you aren't going to replace him with those picks. 

 

 

[The_People1]

35 minutes ago, cross16 said:

I think the Flames would be incredibly stupid to let Tkachuk walk for that type of return as the odds you would get a player close the caliber of Tkachuk with those picks is very small, let alone the fact that you wouldn't get the assets until Gaudreau/Monahan etc are all outside their prime years. I don't think Arizona is going to be a lottery pick team in the near future. 

 

If Ottawa wants to do it I'd think about it but I'd still lean towards keeping Tkachuk because odds are you aren't going to replace him with those picks. 

 

 

 

Ya true but it's also not smart to sign Tkachuk for $10-mil-per right?.. what if it's 4-years at $10per?

[travel_dude]

9 minutes ago, The_People1 said:

 

Ya true but it's also not smart to sign Tkachuk for $10-mil-per right?.. what if it's 4-years at $10per?

 

The OS rules make it almost impossible to sign a player worth it like Tkachuk.  You essentially have to pay 4x1st rounders to get it not matched, since you can only go 5 year average no matter how long.  A 5 year OS to Tkachuk only buys you a year of UFA.  $8m is a 1st, 2nd and 3rd.  CGY matches that, not happy but matches.  >$8.12m is 2x1st a 2nd and a 3rd.  CGY still matches and deals with the fallout.  Nobody is going to offer $10 x 5 years.

 

[The_People1]

Just now, travel_dude said:

 

The OS rules make it almost impossible to sign a player worth it like Tkachuk.  You essentially have to pay 4x1st rounders to get it not matched, since you can only go 5 year average no matter how long.  A 5 year OS to Tkachuk only buys you a year of UFA.  $8m is a 1st, 2nd and 3rd.  CGY matches that, not happy but matches.  >$8.12m is 2x1st a 2nd and a 3rd.  CGY still matches and deals with the fallout.  Nobody is going to offer $10 x 5 years.

 

 

Can they not offer 4 years?  Intentionally make it the most unpleasant situation to match.  Buy zero UFA years.

[cross16]

20 minutes ago, The_People1 said:

 

Ya true but it's also not smart to sign Tkachuk for $10-mil-per right?.. what if it's 4-years at $10per?

 

Of course it's not. It would be the choice of 2 bad decisions. Overpay the player or let him walking for potentially nothing. Pick your poison I guess, but for me losing the player of his caliber is the dumber of the 2 decisions. I'd rather have an overpaid Tkachuk then no Tkachuk at all, especially when the odds are pretty high the picks turn out to be nothing.