Who Should We Fashion Or Rebuild Around?

[kehatch]

There is a lot of debate regarding how we should rebuild.  I thought it would be interesting to compare the teams that have had recent success in rebuilding and see who we think the Flames should model the team after.  

 

I have excluded teams:

• Whose rebuild haven't worked yet (Florida, Edmonton, NYI, Columbus, Winnipeg, Carolina, Buffalo, Toronto, Phoenix). 
• Who may have turned it around, but it is too early to tell (Colorado, Tampa)
• That haven't had to have a modern rebuild to make the playoffs (Detroit, Boston, San Jose, New Jersey, Ottawa, Philadelphia, Montreal)  
• Teams whose rebuild predates the salary cap (Vancouver, NYR, Nashville).  

I understand some of these teams have rebuilt on the fly.  But the Flames are five seasons out of the playoffs so that isn't an option available to us.  

 

Qualifying teams: 

 

Anaheim (05/06)

 

Top five players the season the team turned around:

• Selanne (Trade)
• McDonald (College free agent)
• Niedermayer (Free agent)
• Lupul (Drafted - 7)
• Beauchemin (Trade)

Other notes

• Won a cup in 06/07
• Were an expansion team and were out of the playoffs for 8 of the prior 11 years before turning it around.  Though they made it to the Cup finals in 02/03 with a very different roster.  
• Pronger was added via trade the following year and was a big part of the cup
• Perry, Getzlaf, and Fowler are leading the team today and were all first round picks
• Anaheim has been comfortable trading away prospects drafted high including Lupul, Ryan, and Gardiner.  

Chicago (08/09)

 

Top five players the season the team turned around:

• Havlat (Trade)
• Toews (Draft - 3)
• Kane (Draft - 1)
• Keith (Draft - 54)
• Seabrook (Draft - 14)

Other notes

• Won a cup in 09/10 and 12/13
• Were out of the playoffs 9 of the prior 10 seasons.
• The Hawks have the same leaders today minus Havlat and with the addition of: 
• Sharp and Hossa are a big part of the Blackhawks success.  Both came back via trade.  

LA (09/10)

 

Top five players the season the team turned around:

• Kopitar (Draft - 11)
• Doughty (Draft - 2) 
• Brown (Draft - 13)
• Quick (Draft - 3) 
• Johnson (Trade) 

Other notes

• Won a cup in 11/12
• Were out of the playoffs for six seasons before turning it around
• They traded for Carter and M Richards.  Both were part of their cup win (and current success).  
• Johnson was traded as part of that transaction.   

 

Minnesota (12/13)

 

Top five players the season the team turned around:

• Parise (Free agent)
• Suter (Free agent)
• Koivu (Draft - 6)
• Brodin (Draft - 10)
• Backstrom (European free agent)

Other notes

• Have never won a cup
• Were out of the playoffs for four seasons before turning it around
• Pominville (trade) and Granlund (Draft - 9) are two major players added this season.  

 

Pittsburgh (06/07)

 

Top five players the season the team turned around:

• Crosby (Draft - 1)
• Malkin (Draft - 2)
• Gonchar (Free agent)
• Staal (Draft - 2)
• Whitney (Draft - 5)

Other notes

• Won a cup in 08/09
• Were out of the playoffs for four seasons before turning it around
• Gonchar left for free agency and was replaced by Letang (Draft - 62).  Staal was traded to Carolina for Brandon Sutter.  

St Louis (11/12)

 

Top five players the season the team turned around:

• Backes (Draft - 2)
• Oshie (Draft - 24)
• Pietrangelo (Draft - 4)
• Shattenkirk (Trade)
• Elliot (Free agent)

Other notes

• Have never won a cup
• Were out of the playoffs for five of the previous six seasons before turning it around
• St Louis is about depth instead of stars.  Steen (trade) and Berglund (draft - 25) were already part of the core and have emerged as important players.  
• Bouwmeester was acquired in trade.
• Schwartz (draft - 14) and Tarasenko (draft - 16) are emerging as core players

Washington (07/08)

 

Top five players the season the team turned around:

• Ovechkin (Draft - 1)
• Backstrom (Draft - 4)
• Green (Draft - 29)
• Semin (Draft - 13)
• Laich (Trade)

Other notes

• Have never won a cup
• Were out of the playoffs for four of the previous five seasons before turning it around
• Semin has departed and Ward was added as a free agent.  
• Carlson has emerged as a big minutes D (draft - 27)
• Overall this remains a top heavy team relying primarily on Ovechkin and Backstrom. 

 

My Take

 

Teams I excluded from my personal consideration

• Pittsburgh (lottery) and Minnesota (two franchise players via free agency) due to luck we can't count on.  
• Washington. They haven't had playoff success and have been getting worse rather than better.
• Anaheim.  Rebuild used pre-cap tactics that aren't available to the Flames.  

What is left over: 

• To me it ends up with Chicago, LA, and St Louis.  
• Chicago: The top heavy approach.  Built around its stars. 
• St Louis: The depth approach.  Few stars, but lots and lots of very good players. 
• LA: The traditional approach.  Star goalie, star D, deep down the C.  

Final notes: 

• I find it interesting that every team but LA is having goalie issues and isn't built around a goalie.  (Minnesota perhaps being the exception other than this year).
• Calgary has been out of the playoffs longer than any of these teams except for Chicago (9) and LA (6). We are almost caught up to LA.  
• I think Feaster was trying to build a top heavy Chicago like team.  I think Burke is looking for a depth team like St Louis.  A core philosophical difference.  
• Four of these six teams won a cup within two seasons of turning it around.  This is Minnesota's first chance, and they are still in the playoffs.  Only St Louis failed.  Though they were favorites going into the playoffs.  

[baljflames13]

Flames should rebuild their team like Chicago has, and I think they are already. Chicago has four 30 goal scorers (Kane, Toews< Hossa, Sharp). I think maybe in the nearish future, we may have something close to that maybe...? (Gaudreau, Monahan, Backlund, Baertschi). Obviously not next season or anything, and maybe not at all, but that's what it's looking like. Also, with Porier, Klimcuk, Reinhart and Grandlund on the rise perhaps, we might have some scoring depth going on.

 

As far as defencemen, the Hawks have Keith, who I don't think anyone in the league can match, but maybe the Keith-Seabrook line may look a tiny bit like Gio-Brodie in the future?

[Crzydrvr]

I would build it like the Kings, but that's predicated on grabbing an elite goalie which would take optimism to an extreme.

 

The Hawks are probably the easiest to come close to replicating because they aren't built singularly on the backs of just 3 great players. If one of Kopitar, Doughty or Quick sinks, then it's game over for LA. Chicago meanwhile is still chugging along even though quite a few of their best players haven't been consistently big parts of their playoff run.

[DirtyDeeds]

Why do we have to fashion our rebuild after any of the above?  Our situation is unique to us.

 

Lets simply rebuild from the backend forward. This is a time tested formula for success that extends back for decades. This formula has survived through many rule changes and styles.

 

Lets set the example so that other teams say we want to rebuild like Calgary Flames did.

[kehatch]

I am not surprised Chicago is up by a four to nothing margin so far.  They have won two cups recently and they are one of the favorites for the cup this season.  The problem is it is really tough to find players like Toews and Kane outside of the top 3 of a draft.  Which is why I think the Flames are more likely to go for a team with lots of depth vs a top heavy team like Washington, Chicago, or Pittsburgh.  

 

That opinion is reinforced with the hiring of Treliving.  

 

Of course, Chicago is top heavy and has depth.  Tough team to beat.  

[Wreckening]

I agree with Deeds.  We've already established an identity so you draft the best players you think will buy into it.  There's more than just on ice performance that comes into play.  This is why the clubs also interview upcoming draftees.  A guy may have outstanding game play but may have a bad attitude or have to high expectations as a rookie.  You need to know these intangibles to see if a player is coach-able or not.  That's why I like Deed's statement when he says lets have other teams look towards Calgary to use as an example of how to build a successful franchise.

[Flyerfan52]

1 thing of note is all 4 of the Cup winners weren't so in love with former high picks they refused to trade them to fill needs. None of this worrying he might go on to success later.

 

I voted for the LA model because I like a very top end player in each of the 3 I view most important (G, 1D & 1C). They then added amazing depth where most players can fill in a line higher but all are dangerous so need to be defended.

I certainly give Chicago kudos for Keith & Seabrook. Toews is a gem not available every year & winning the lottery to get P Kane in a weak draft was a 1 of.

[CheersMan]

I agree with DD above. This will have to be done the Calgary way. I don't think you can fashion the RB around any past winner other than the fact core pieces must come from the draft. No two SC winning teams will ever look the same or be constructed the same. I think Kehatch has shown us that through his efforts in summarizing the data. The team that displays the best goaltending, stifling defence and lethal offence usually wins the SC each year. How you attain that is the million dollar question. The RB must be done one piece at a time by evaluating the piece, then acquire, then develop, then keep/trade until you have the best assembled team in the NHL.

[Carty]

Why do we have to fashion our rebuild after any of the above?  Our situation is unique to us.

 

Lets simply rebuild from the backend forward. This is a time tested formula for success that extends back for decades. This formula has survived through many rule changes and styles.

 

Lets set the example so that other teams say we want to rebuild like Calgary Flames did.

 

While Kehatch made some good points in his summary of what worked for other teams for their rebuilds and has brought them varying degrees of success, I agree with Deeds that the Flames rebuild situation is unique to the franchise, just the same as all of the teams given as examples had their own unique circumstances and opportunities to make decisions and changes...

 

I think that the poll would benefit by also adding an option for those that share that opinion seeing as a few others have already agreed with that viewpoint and it is a valid option...   The Flames could very well have circumstances and opportunities that have similarities to different teams that have had success with their rebuilds while undergoing their own, and not just one of them...   The process as a whole will be unique to the Flames as it develops over time...

[kehatch]

The examples aren't meant to be taken literally. Calgary will (hopefully) be our own entry on the list some day.  These are teams that rebuilt successfully.  Some had a bigger emphasis on draft, trade, or free agency.  Some focused on different positions.  The approaches were very different, as were the types of teams that resulted.  It is just meant to generate some discussion on the path that makes the most sense for the Flames.  

 

If you expand the list to include teams that haven't been successful there is more discussion.  What have the Oiler's or Florida failed to do that these other teams have done. What pitfalls should Calgary avoid.  

 

May (and August) are the dead times for non-playoff teams.  Just a point for discussion.  

[travel_dude]

1 thing of note is all 4 of the Cup winners weren't so in love with former high picks they refused to trade them to fill needs. None of this worrying he might go on to success later.

 

I voted for the LA model because I like a very top end player in each of the 3 I view most important (G, 1D & 1C). They then added amazing depth where most players can fill in a line higher but all are dangerous so need to be defended.

I certainly give Chicago kudos for Keith & Seabrook. Toews is a gem not available every year & winning the lottery to get P Kane in a weak draft was a 1 of.

 

I believe that two things cause this team to be successful very quickly after 1st round exits and non-playoff years; Sutter and aquiring Richards/Carter.  As much as their prior moves help set up the team for years to come, these two moves put them over the top. 

 

As far as the Flames go, we would need to find a suitable combination of goalies (Ramo + Halak wouldn't be a bad start), and trade a major asset for a 1/2 D.  That would mean a Backlund more than a Baertschi being traded.  Maybe both Hudler and Wideman have carreer years and would be sought after by a team needing them.  For a #1C, maybe we can sign Statsny to a $7m x 5 year deal.  A lot of maybes.  The loss of Backlund would be bigger than Hudler and Wideman in the long run.

[bosn111]

I think if you look at Anaheim, St. Louis and Minnesota you will more similarities than others and is more along the lines. If you look at the "other important information" parts of the OP post you will notice that there are extra players in there. Basically these teams have taken a more balanced approach of drafting high and well, trading for good players and signing quality UFA's. You will also notice that teams with more long term or currently increasing success like these teams is that they have / had veteran talent on the top end to allow the drafted players time to develop. If the team did not have those players they went out and grabbed them.

 

Calgary needs to come in with a balanced approach. They tried the trade / FA only route and that didn't work. Most just draft with very few additions don't work. The more balanced approach has already begun.

 

Monahan (draft)

Backlund (draft)

Baertschi (draft)

Granlund (draft)

Brodie (draft)

Gaudreau (draft)

Bouma (draft)

Wotherspoon (draft)

Ortio (draft)

 

Hudler (FA)

Stajan (trade)

Glencross (FA)

Giordano (FA)

Wideman (FA)

Smid (trade)

Ramo (trade)

Byron (trade)

 

Basically the Flames have started with a balanced approach already. They have a lot of cap space to spend on some high end FA's and they should, plus they have some mid quality trade pieces they could use. With the right balance of asset management, the Flames could have a quick turnaround. 

[conundrumed]

I think for most teams, their key players are via draft and their bottom players are via other routes.

Having a good draft history really solidifies these teams as enduringly good teams.

Take the Ducks as an example:

G- Gibson

G- Anderson

G- Bobkov

D- Fowler

D- Lindholm

D- Vatanen

F- Smith-Pelly

F- Etem

F- Palmieri

 

That's only going back in the last 4 years so leaving out Getzlaf, Perry, Ryan, Jake Gardiner, Justin Schultz etc.

They can turn a prolific scorer like Ryan into Silfverberg and a 1st and not miss a beat. The Schultz fiasco = nothing to them.

Penner for a bag of pucks, they have drafted so well in all areas that they will stay competitive for a long time.

That's what I want us to do. Future stars and bonafide NHLers are in every draft. For me, that's our future top 6, D and G.

In the meantime, I would like us to just solidify the backend, bottom 6 and toy in FA for guys that can cover some top 6 minutes, but only for "in the meantime".

[MAC331]

Im not sure i would call where the Flames are right now a rebuild. The need to to change direction should have happened 3 years ago but really didn't until the decision was made to trade away Iginla. Serious moves need to be made if the Flames don't want to just hang in there year after year. I like some of the depth that has been building within the farm but feel the need to further back up the system so those prospect gain much needed development.

 

Building from the net out is off to a good start IMO.

Ramo and a solid back up will serve us well.

Defense has 5 good and some getting better in Giordano, Wideman, Brodie, Smid and Russell, add someone like Matt Greene.

Wotherspoon and a few other need more work but would be dependable call ups when injuries occur.

 

Lines 3 & 4 has all kinds of quality players inhouse and they have now signed this Wolf kid. Take your pick to build these two lines, Stajan, Glencross, D.Jones, Bouma, Reinhart, Knight, Granlund, McGrattan and now Wolf.

 

The top two lines is where the smart moves have to take place. We have a good start with Monahan centering the 2nd line. Colburne developed tons this past season, does he stay on the W or does he get his own line ? Are Backlund and Hudler keepers, I say not likely because the new GM will need them in any trades to get bigger better wingers for the two top lines.

[The_People1]

Might as well rename this thread to "The Five Guys".

 

No, not for the burger franchise but the examples of successful rebuilds seem to revolve around five core players for every team listed in the first post.  Depth players are just extra toppings. 

 

Right now, the Flames have One legitimate guy: 

• Giordano

We have one other guy looking to push his way into that group:

• Monahan

So really, to complete this rebuild, Monahan must continue to develop into a key player in the future.  After that, the Flames must find 3 more core guys who are superstar to all-star-level players.  All of these methods work:  the draft, trades, UFAs, etc.  Most ideally though, these three players peak at the same time as Monahan so we can come out of this rebuild with lasting success.

 

Potential:

• Poirier
• Gaudreau
• Klimchuk
• Baertschi
• 2014 1st round pick (4th overall)
• 2015 1st round pick (likely top 10 or higher)
• Ramo
• Ortio

At least 3 of these above must either become those core guys or they need to be traded to acquire these core guys.

[travel_dude]

Might as well rename this thread to "The Five Guys".

 

No, not for the burger franchise but the examples of successful rebuilds seem to revolve around five core players for every team listed in the first post.  Depth players are just extra toppings. 

 

Right now, the Flames have One legitimate guy: 

• Giordano

We have one other guy looking to push his way into that group:

• Monahan

So really, to complete this rebuild, Monahan must continue to develop into a key player in the future.  After that, the Flames must find 3 more core guys who are superstar to all-star-level players.  All of these methods work:  the draft, trades, UFAs, etc.  Most ideally though, these three players peak at the same time as Monahan so we can come out of this rebuild with lasting success.

 

Potential:

• Poirier
• Gaudreau
• Klimchuk
• Baertschi
• 2014 1st round pick (4th overall)
• 2015 1st round pick (likely top 10 or higher)
• Ramo
• Ortio

At least 3 of these above must either become those core guys or they need to be traded to acquire these core guys.

 

Response for the "Sixth Man".  On Star Trek that was usually the guy that was eaten by some strange alien, or killed by a Klingon.

 

I would add Brodie as one of the star potential guys we currently have on D.  He has done nothing but make his linemates better and progress every year he has played.  He is young enough that his ceiling may not be known yet.

 

On forward, I would also add Granlund.  There is something special about him.  He has always lived in his brother's shadow, but could be a better player.  Like wahat I saw from his limited play on the Flames.

 

In nets, I think you have to consider Gillies as a potential star.  He had one bad stretch in the past two year, but htat was the exception.  He still has years of development ahead of him, but has shown great skills to this point.

[Wreckening]

Might as well rename this thread to "The Five Guys".

 

No, not for the burger franchise but the examples of successful rebuilds seem to revolve around five core players for every team listed in the first post.  Depth players are just extra toppings. 

 

Right now, the Flames have One legitimate guy: 

• Giordano

We have one other guy looking to push his way into that group:

• Monahan

So really, to complete this rebuild, Monahan must continue to develop into a key player in the future.  After that, the Flames must find 3 more core guys who are superstar to all-star-level players.  All of these methods work:  the draft, trades, UFAs, etc.  Most ideally though, these three players peak at the same time as Monahan so we can come out of this rebuild with lasting success.

 

Potential:

• Poirier
• Gaudreau
• Klimchuk
• Baertschi
• 2014 1st round pick (4th overall)
• 2015 1st round pick (likely top 10 or higher)
• Ramo
• Ortio

At least 3 of these above must either become those core guys or they need to be traded to acquire these core guys.

Of that list my hope is on Poirier, Gaudreau and Ortio. I'm not completely sold yet on Ramo but with that said I think he does possess a higher ceiling, its just a simple question, can he reach it.  I like where we sit this year with the number 4 pick.  I can see that pick being NHL ready in very short order no matter who it is (unless we go completely off the board which I don't see happening).

 

Now with that said, who knows what free agency will bring.  We could very well end up signing a core guy, its not out of the realm of possibility.  

[swtrooper]

Why do we have to fashion our rebuild after any of the above?  Our situation is unique to us.

 

Lets simply rebuild from the backend forward. This is a time tested formula for success that extends back for decades. This formula has survived through many rule changes and styles.

 

Lets set the example so that other teams say we want to rebuild like Calgary Flames did.

Totally agree with you! I really don't have much of a say as far as how to rebuild a NHL team, but would nt that be something 10 years down the road if teams are talking about building like we did.

 

If only we can find that new type of system unlike any other to put us on top for a change.

[conundrumed]

Might as well rename this thread to "The Five Guys".

 

No, not for the burger franchise but the examples of successful rebuilds seem to revolve around five core players for every team listed in the first post.  Depth players are just extra toppings. 

 

Right now, the Flames have One legitimate guy: 

• Giordano

 

I agree. It serves as a reminder that we've got a ways to go.

So let's sign Gaborik, Callahan and Orpik.

 

I hope we build a sustainable team, not an enduring problem.

[cross16]

I think it's impossibly to rebuild like another team because following their blueprint is very difficult. IMO Chicago and LA rebuilt the same way the big difference is hawks drafted Kane and the kings don't have a player like that so you have to gave more depth when you don't get the top end talent but you can't fault a team for not getting a player like Kane.

What I think the successful teams do is draft well, always supplement to keep competition in their lineups, and stay aggressive to fill other needs using a mix of free agency and trades. I think where rebuilds go awry is where teams get too passive, Edmonton, or two aggressive by overspending in free agency. Find your core establish your core and the booster the core.

[kehatch]

I think it's impossibly to rebuild like another team because following their blueprint is very difficult. IMO Chicago and LA rebuilt the same way the big difference is hawks drafted Kane and the kings don't have a player like that so you have to gave more depth when you don't get the top end talent but you can't fault a team for not getting a player like Kane.

What I think the successful teams do is draft well, always supplement to keep competition in their lineups, and stay aggressive to fill other needs using a mix of free agency and trades. I think where rebuilds go awry is where teams get too passive, Edmonton, or two aggressive by overspending in free agency. Find your core establish your core and the booster the core.

I disagree. One of Edmonton's many problems is that they didn't follow a blue print. They have a collection of parts and no team. They lack identify.

You can't just draft a bunch of players. You need to figure out what type of team your building. That influences the types of players you draft, the players you trade, etc.

I agree that St Louis and LA are similar teams that follow a similar identity. But teams like Chicago and Pittsburgh have a completely different identity.

What type of team are the Flames building? That's really the jist of the post.

[conundrumed]

Did Chicago "fashion" their rebuild? Or did Toews?

Same with Pittsburgh.

It's funny we all think this is some big "plan".

You got player x, you've got player Y, now go. And good luck.

There is no magic formula.

[cross16]

I disagree. One of Edmonton's many problems is that they didn't follow a blue print. They have a collection of parts and no team. They lack identify.

You can't just draft a bunch of players. You need to figure out what type of team your building. That influences the types of players you draft, the players you trade, etc.

I agree that St Louis and LA are similar teams that follow a similar identity. But teams like Chicago and Pittsburgh have a completely different identity.

What type of team are the Flames building? That's really the jist of the post.

I don't necessarily agree that Edmonton doesn't have an identity, I think they do but I think they went the wrong way about establishing that identity and didn't develop their guys they jusg handed everything to then.

I guess the point I was making is what comes first players or identity? Is Chicago built the way the are all by design or because they were able to draft certain players. I believe it's the later because I think without Kane, a rare player, I think Chicago would look very different. I get there are absolutely going to be core values you draft for and agree with that and I know there is an end goal in mind but I think the path to get there isn't set so I think it's tough to emulate another teams rebuild. To your point kehatch I think the LA model is the easier one yk follow because as I said you would need a Kane but what happens of the flames wind up with say McDavid or Eichel next year, that would change everything IMO. (FYI I'm not interested in debating whether or not that will happen I'm just using a hypothetical).

I think you have to adapt once you've established your core which you should get through trades and draft maybe a free agent it your are lucky. If the question is what type of team the flames should be I think ideally everyone would be a Chicago and I would do. Chicago is smart, fast, up tempo, exciting, reliable two ways and still physical. They are the blueprint I would follow in terms of style of play I like fast, physical, responsible hockey but who fills those roles is harder to predict.

[tmac70]

BB made mention awhile ago, a club should must be able to play 4 styles of hockey to make through the league.

 

1) Offensive

2) Defensive 

3) Physical

4) Special Teams 

 

Look at the top teams and tell me they can not play this style of hockey, especially in the West. Seems that Boston is designed the same way in the East.  I would have to say that BB assessment of the elements above are key to the success of any club. Really the success of any club is how you mix the ingredients.

[The_People1]

Response for the "Sixth Man".  On Star Trek that was usually the guy that was eaten by some strange alien, or killed by a Klingon.

Of that list my hope is on Poirier, Gaudreau and Ortio. I'm not completely sold yet on Ramo but with that said I think he does possess a higher ceiling, its just a simple question, can he reach it.  I like where we sit this year with the number 4 pick.  I can see that pick being NHL ready in very short order no matter who it is (unless we go completely off the board which I don't see happening).

 

Now with that said, who knows what free agency will bring.  We could very well end up signing a core guy, its not out of the realm of possibility.  

 

For all we know, we may already have the core from within and it's just a matter of time before they become impact players.  Then, it's just a matter of surrounding them with the right guys.

 

Like, if it turns out to be;

• Giordano
• Monahan
• Gaudreau
• Baertschi
• Klimchuk

Then we need to surround this group with size and toughness.

 

If it's;

• Giordano
• Ekblad
• Eichel
• Monahan
• Poirier

Then i think we have the size and toughness inside the core group.  We will need to surround this group with speed and finese to round out the team.