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Realistic (and unrealistic) Trades - 2024 Edition


travel_dude

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2 hours ago, redfire11 said:

Would you consider Josh Norris from Ottawa. He is injury prone but is a great C. Ottawa might dump the 8m dollar 6 years left contract for Deuhr or Hunt.

 

That's a pretty tough contract to swallow.  He kind of scores like Kadri if he is healthy.  I would think he is a Monahan dumping.  Worth more than Monahan was at the time, but it's long term and not cheap.  Give us a 1st and we will think about it.  Future considerations.  Ok, we send Hunt.

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So what do you guys think of this list from the Athletic of 11 players Calgary should target…personally there are only a few that make sense to me, and others are a potential of being a locker room issue, which is a huge no off the start.

 

the few that are worth while I’m not convinced that it would be worth the cost of acquiring them.. 

 

here is the article:

 

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5537582/2024/07/04/rossi-zegras-protas-kakko-trade/

 

 

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In theory, Zegras makes sense.

 

He's dynamic, skilled and at his best, fun to watch.

 

Just don't think it makes sense

- the acquistion cost will be very high

- I think you're inviting another Tkachuk situation. Zegras has two years left. The Flames aren't winning anything in that time. Does he wanna be a Flame long term? I don't think so.

 

 

I get the idea and appeal of Zegras. Just don't think it's practical. I think the Flames are better off, taking their lumps and picking high for the next few seasons. Generally speaking, I think homegrown players are more likely to stick around than players acquired from markets like ANA.

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2 hours ago, Thebrewcrew said:

In theory, Zegras makes sense.

 

He's dynamic, skilled and at his best, fun to watch.

 

Just don't think it makes sense

- the acquistion cost will be very high

- I think you're inviting another Tkachuk situation. Zegras has two years left. The Flames aren't winning anything in that time. Does he wanna be a Flame long term? I don't think so.

 

 

I get the idea and appeal of Zegras. Just don't think it's practical. I think the Flames are better off, taking their lumps and picking high for the next few seasons. Generally speaking, I think homegrown players are more likely to stick around than players acquired from markets like ANA.

 

Zegras reminds me of Milano.  Never hit it here becauese we had Sutter and he never inpressed Sutter in the couple of games he played.  Perhaps a bit too much with the puck and not enough without.  Milano managed about 0.5 p/gp in 2 seasons with WAS.  How many of those did we have last year?  

 

Maybe we have enough C's to ice an okay team.  If not, perhaps we need to consider young players like Zegras, or someone else young enough to grow with this team.  

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7 minutes ago, travel_dude said:

 

Zegras reminds me of Milano.  Never hit it here becauese we had Sutter and he never inpressed Sutter in the couple of games he played.  Perhaps a bit too much with the puck and not enough without.  Milano managed about 0.5 p/gp in 2 seasons with WAS.  How many of those did we have last year?  

 

Maybe we have enough C's to ice an okay team.  If not, perhaps we need to consider young players like Zegras, or someone else young enough to grow with this team.  

I think Zegras is always going to be a guy that drives his fanbase crazy.

 

Tons of skill there. The consistency isn’t always there. Maybe it’s because Anaheim is bad but there are times where he looks like he’s on a Sunday afternoon skate.

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7 hours ago, travel_dude said:

 

Zegras reminds me of Milano.  Never hit it here becauese we had Sutter and he never inpressed Sutter in the couple of games he played.  Perhaps a bit too much with the puck and not enough without.  Milano managed about 0.5 p/gp in 2 seasons with WAS.  How many of those did we have last year?  

 

Maybe we have enough C's to ice an okay team.  If not, perhaps we need to consider young players like Zegras, or someone else young enough to grow with this team.  


yes we absolutely need young centres more than one, we need at least 2 and soon..Backlund is 34 and Kadri is 32 as our top 2 centres.  After that we really have nothing, a few hopes in Shar, Pos and Zary but none are natural Ctrs say for Zary.  Having said this, Zary has had his best year at wing. The other two Shar and Pos are RW’s and like Zary have had their best seasons at Wing positions.  Ctr is a tougher position, and really takes time to learn, especially FO’s which they all only have a limited amount of experience with.  throwing them into that position seems like a bad plan, say for Shar who is a bit older and has more NHL experience.

 

the big issues is, there is no fall back plan or safety net for them if they don’t have success at Ctr right out of the gate.  it’s obvious, that’s why Conroy loaded up on the wings at UFA.

 

as much as I like what Kadri did to help develop Pos and Zary, he’s not a great Ctr his FO’s are horrible, which is why he’s best suited as a 3rd line Ctr…or as I had been advocating, slide him to the Wing and I think you see a better Kadri and get a little longer runway out of his playing time.

 

Backlund is even older and he’s been slower, loosing about a 1/2 step every year.  He’s never really been matter than a top tire ideal #3 Ctr able to do short stints at #2 Ctr but not a legit #2 Ctr.  Granted one of the absolutely best possession Ctrs in the game, and after Monahan, has been arguably the best FO Ctr we have had over the years.

 

We badly need 2 young Ctrs now and TBH another 2 next year. I see what Conroy is doing, he’s testing who we can slot in at Ctr, if even only one of the three work it’s going to make things a lot easier to find 1 more

Ctr via trade vs 2…drafting additional Ctrs would be less tricky give we have plenty of picks and although we probably need to draft 2 more, if we had 2 now and drafted 2 over the next couple of years and phase them in, then there would be less pressure and urgency cause Conroy could slowly phase out Kadri and Backlund by letting their contracts expire and replacing them with the drafted Ctrs. It’s a smart plan but my only worry is messing up the development of Zary and Pos…and to a lesser degree Sage but he’s at about he same age as Lindholm was when we gave him a shot at Ctr, so that’s less of a risk…not saying Shar will have success at Ctr but less chance it sets him back in development, he’s at an age now where he can adjust to positional changes and his play is fairly consistent.

 

if I had my way, in that I could pick my ideal Ctrs for this team right now:

 

1. D.mercer

2.C.Ritchie 

3. J.Iginla 

 

Never gonna happen I know but these are the 3 Ctrs I’d love to see. 
 

J.Iginla is just never gonna happen he’s the face of the Utah franchise 100% guarantee.

 

Mercer may be obtainable, but it’s gonna cost more than we are willing to part with. I don’t think NJD needs much of anything now, unless they need D but I think they have addressed that too…maybe Anderson or Weegar + a 2026 first but this leave a huge hole in the D unless our new D are ready to step in now? Highly doubtful though.

 

Ritchie, same as Mercer, Col may be in need of D like Anderson or more so Weegar + a first rounder…again this hinges on our 2024 drafted D and our acquired D from TDL being ready.

 

the other thing is this year and next year looks good for drafting Ctrs so…

 

also I’m not a fan of trading Weegar, he’s the veteran D that every team

needs to help the younger D, and he’s not terribly old for a veteran D he’s almost ideal for that role.

 

anyway all this is to say we badly need Ctrs and i understand Conroy is just not paying insane prices for any player or position…its gonna be a frustrating year to watch some really good young player play exciting hockey but not be competitive…though TBH, that will also be a blessing in terms of draft position, and also promising that the team will only get better with experience 

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1 hour ago, MP5029 said:


yes we absolutely need young centres more than one, we need at least 2 and soon..Backlund is 34 and Kadri is 32 as our top 2 centres.  After that we really have nothing, a few hopes in Shar, Pos and Zary but none are natural Ctrs say for Zary.  Having said this, Zary has had his best year at wing. The other two Shar and Pos are RW’s and like Zary have had their best seasons at Wing positions.  Ctr is a tougher position, and really takes time to learn, especially FO’s which they all only have a limited amount of experience with.  throwing them into that position seems like a bad plan, say for Shar who is a bit older and has more NHL experience.

 

the big issues is, there is no fall back plan or safety net for them if they don’t have success at Ctr right out of the gate.  it’s obvious, that’s why Conroy loaded up on the wings at UFA.

 

as much as I like what Kadri did to help develop Pos and Zary, he’s not a great Ctr his FO’s are horrible, which is why he’s best suited as a 3rd line Ctr…or as I had been advocating, slide him to the Wing and I think you see a better Kadri and get a little longer runway out of his playing time.

 

Backlund is even older and he’s been slower, loosing about a 1/2 step every year.  He’s never really been matter than a top tire ideal #3 Ctr able to do short stints at #2 Ctr but not a legit #2 Ctr.  Granted one of the absolutely best possession Ctrs in the game, and after Monahan, has been arguably the best FO Ctr we have had over the years.

 

We badly need 2 young Ctrs now and TBH another 2 next year. I see what Conroy is doing, he’s testing who we can slot in at Ctr, if even only one of the three work it’s going to make things a lot easier to find 1 more

Ctr via trade vs 2…drafting additional Ctrs would be less tricky give we have plenty of picks and although we probably need to draft 2 more, if we had 2 now and drafted 2 over the next couple of years and phase them in, then there would be less pressure and urgency cause Conroy could slowly phase out Kadri and Backlund by letting their contracts expire and replacing them with the drafted Ctrs. It’s a smart plan but my only worry is messing up the development of Zary and Pos…and to a lesser degree Sage but he’s at about he same age as Lindholm was when we gave him a shot at Ctr, so that’s less of a risk…not saying Shar will have success at Ctr but less chance it sets him back in development, he’s at an age now where he can adjust to positional changes and his play is fairly consistent.

 

if I had my way, in that I could pick my ideal Ctrs for this team right now:

 

1. D.mercer

2.C.Ritchie 

3. J.Iginla 

 

Never gonna happen I know but these are the 3 Ctrs I’d love to see. 
 

J.Iginla is just never gonna happen he’s the face of the Utah franchise 100% guarantee.

 

Mercer may be obtainable, but it’s gonna cost more than we are willing to part with. I don’t think NJD needs much of anything now, unless they need D but I think they have addressed that too…maybe Anderson or Weegar + a 2026 first but this leave a huge hole in the D unless our new D are ready to step in now? Highly doubtful though.

 

Ritchie, same as Mercer, Col may be in need of D like Anderson or more so Weegar + a first rounder…again this hinges on our 2024 drafted D and our acquired D from TDL being ready.

 

the other thing is this year and next year looks good for drafting Ctrs so…

 

also I’m not a fan of trading Weegar, he’s the veteran D that every team

needs to help the younger D, and he’s not terribly old for a veteran D he’s almost ideal for that role.

 

anyway all this is to say we badly need Ctrs and i understand Conroy is just not paying insane prices for any player or position…its gonna be a frustrating year to watch some really good young player play exciting hockey but not be competitive…though TBH, that will also be a blessing in terms of draft position, and also promising that the team will only get better with experience 

We already have 4 active C, Backlund, Kadri(vets), Rooney(4th liner) and Zary plus Sharangovich(transitioning).  Other possibilities are Pospisil(Worlds example) and prospects.  Prospects Schwindt and Morton(?) look the most ready but still a whiles off from NHL players.  

 

Yes, Flames are definitely a bit light at C but if we go from the old maxim, build from the net out, it appears they are doing exactly what is needed.  We've got 2-3 years to obtain all the Cs we need going forward, if we traded for Cs now that would thwart appraisal of multiple prospects... time to embrace the rebuild, fully evaluating the kids before decisions on their careers... 

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The best route for Calgary to obtain 1st and 2nd line Centers is by drafting them. Even then the Flames would probably need to draft in the Top 10 in each of the next two seasons and pray for some luck in the lotteries.

 

On the rare occasions that #1 or #2 Cs become available via trade, the cost in assets is normally quite expensive.

 

Signing them as UFAs usually means that they will be older and very costly.

Just look at how much money Stamkos, Stephenson, and Lindholm received on their new contracts.

Looking at the depth charts from CapFriendly:

Stamkos is listed as Nashville's #2 LW, though he may trade off at #2 C with Sissons.

Stephenson will be Seattle's #2 C.

Lindholm is currently listed as Boston's #1, but he may have to compete with Coyle for that spot.

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Brayden Point, Ryan O'Reilly off the top of my head. You don't absolutely need a top 5 pick to acquire a top line center. Sebastian Aho anyone?

Need some savvy luck, sure. Nature of the beast. So many C's drafted end up fwds, so you need some good fortune regardless.

It takes a long time to develop players to their potential, get used to it. Tidy draft last year, great draft this year.

By November, we'll have forgotten half of their names. lol

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2 hours ago, conundrumed said:

Brayden Point, Ryan O'Reilly off the top of my head. You don't absolutely need a top 5 pick to acquire a top line center. Sebastian Aho anyone?

Need some savvy luck, sure. Nature of the beast. So many C's drafted end up fwds, so you need some good fortune regardless.

It takes a long time to develop players to their potential, get used to it. Tidy draft last year, great draft this year.

By November, we'll have forgotten half of their names. lol

 

These are players that become that and aren't at that level initially.  SO the Point is to try to make smart trades recognizing the cap situation of teams and the future ability of younger players.  EDM traded McLeod, and while I don't think he is anything that special, he was a casualty of a reckless GM wannabe.  They chose age and went through stats to find guys that did something recently.  

 

Erat for Forsberg is one example of a restless GM.  I suppose you could say WAS won a cup and NAS didn't, but that's a little rich.  The moral of that story is GM make mistakes all the time and maybe we can stop being the guy having soup spilled on us and start being the guy that gets a free soup with sandwich.  Poor analogy.  

 

I can't view the list, but I am assuming that there might be someone available like Zegras or better.  No 1st going the other way.  Maybe a prospect they are asking about.  And a roster player that perhaps we can live without?  I would be reluctant to trade any player named Pospisil or Zary, but others may be expendable.

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3 hours ago, conundrumed said:

Brayden Point, Ryan O'Reilly off the top of my head. You don't absolutely need a top 5 pick to acquire a top line center. Sebastian Aho anyone?

Need some savvy luck, sure. Nature of the beast. So many C's drafted end up fwds, so you need some good fortune regardless.

It takes a long time to develop players to their potential, get used to it. Tidy draft last year, great draft this year.

By November, we'll have forgotten half of their names. lol

Eichel, Gretzky, Messier, multiple others…

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1 hour ago, cberg said:

Eichel, Gretzky, Messier, multiple others…

Fair enough, but it's not a do or die thing.

It's been fun watching stabilizing the farm in the past 2 drafts. It really, REALLY had to happen. Getting cap space because, well, everyone wanted out is probably ideal. No bad press, bad pub, etc.

Parted ways amicably, nobody hates us. Solid trade partners.

New arena in, what, 27-28?

Lots of positives. Conroy's doing great, he bleeds Calgary. Need a C? Don't get your panties in a bunch for the first ones to pop up. He'll figure it out. 

Keep giving prospects a chance. We've almost never had that and our patience wore thin a long time ago.

Conroy's being progressive, forced or not. What a breath of fresh air. I really support what he's doing.

I'm taking the easy out, and acquiescing to them. lol

Looking good.

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1 hour ago, conundrumed said:

Fair enough, but it's not a do or die thing.

It's been fun watching stabilizing the farm in the past 2 drafts. It really, REALLY had to happen. Getting cap space because, well, everyone wanted out is probably ideal. No bad press, bad pub, etc.

Parted ways amicably, nobody hates us. Solid trade partners.

New arena in, what, 27-28?

Lots of positives. Conroy's doing great, he bleeds Calgary. Need a C? Don't get your panties in a bunch for the first ones to pop up. He'll figure it out. 

Keep giving prospects a chance. We've almost never had that and our patience wore thin a long time ago.

Conroy's being progressive, forced or not. What a breath of fresh air. I really support what he's doing.

I'm taking the easy out, and acquiescing to them. lol

Looking good.

 

Some of the events that have taken place since January are by pure luck and not Connie genius.  Three players that they wanted to sign rejected the offers and wanted to go.  A 4th decided he would poison the water and announce he wanted out.  A 5th was kinda poisoned by leaked trade requests.  The returns and deals have been very well played by Connie.  We have a new crop of prospects, newly drafted players and a couple NHL ready players.  Not bad at all.

 

If you believe any noise out there, he is looking for a C.  UFA's not the best time is a shallow pool.  It's possible we won't like the target or maybe the deal.  If it happens.  But sometimes you need to pay to get the player you want.  There are too many teams out there that overpaid and will need to reduce their team payroll.  Others have big payrolls and are almost expected to start on a rebuild.  I'm interested to see who is made available aside from the quote insiders.  This may be a year that overspending teams will give up a player for less.  Waiting a year may not work out.

 

We have to be careful trading any picks this year.  We have too many conditions on 1st round picks, so I don't want to even touch those.

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On 7/7/2024 at 7:16 PM, travel_dude said:

 

Some of the events that have taken place since January are by pure luck and not Connie genius.  Three players that they wanted to sign rejected the offers and wanted to go.  A 4th decided he would poison the water and announce he wanted out.  A 5th was kinda poisoned by leaked trade requests.  The returns and deals have been very well played by Connie.  We have a new crop of prospects, newly drafted players and a couple NHL ready players.  Not bad at all.

 

If you believe any noise out there, he is looking for a C.  UFA's not the best time is a shallow pool.  It's possible we won't like the target or maybe the deal.  If it happens.  But sometimes you need to pay to get the player you want.  There are too many teams out there that overpaid and will need to reduce their team payroll.  Others have big payrolls and are almost expected to start on a rebuild.  I'm interested to see who is made available aside from the quote insiders.  This may be a year that overspending teams will give up a player for less.  Waiting a year may not work out.

 

We have to be careful trading any picks this year.  We have too many conditions on 1st round picks, so I don't want to even touch those.

Agreed, those firsts in 2025 and 2026 could land a few really top

level C…so trading firsts for them they would need to be in the mold of

Mwrcer who is In and NHL ready but maybe needs a better opportunity to play higher in a different lineup or maybe even Ritchie who is probably only another year out, could expedite the development time vice drafting…the only catch 22 with that is giving away those first round picks there is the possibility of missing out on a franchise player…trading mah land you a star player in Mercer or Ritchie but they are not looking like a franchise player, something Cgy badly needs and has never had since Iginla and Kipper…both of which were traded in and never project to be franchise players, but developed in to being franchise players…since that extremely lucky break really all

we had was star and maybe a super

Superstar or two in Chucky,

Mony, JG, Lindhom and Hanifin…Even Marky was probably considered a star G…maybe superstar…maybe…

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There’s value in these models, but I question whether or not these folks actually watch the games. The comments on this tweet don’t seem to agree with him.

The analytical community doesn’t give enough credence to the idea that you need different types of players throughout your lineup. You can’t ice six Zayne Parekh’s on your blueline.

 

Even if Grushnikov doesn’t pan out. He was a late 2nd round pick. Wouldn’t be the first to

not pan out. He was traded for a 34yr old rental. It would have been amazing to get a 1st. But the Flames were never extracting a top prospect for Tanev

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25 minutes ago, Thebrewcrew said:

There’s value in these models, but I question whether or not these folks actually watch the games. The comments on this tweet don’t seem to agree with him.

The analytical community doesn’t give enough credence to the idea that you need different types of players throughout your lineup. You can’t ice six Zayne Parekh’s on your blueline.

 

Even if Grushnikov doesn’t pan out. He was a late 2nd round pick. Wouldn’t be the first to

not pan out. He was traded for a 34yr old rental. It would have been amazing to get a 1st. But the Flames were never extracting a top prospect for Tanev

Ya I laughed when I read this ..

 

First.. so if projects and pans out as a solid 3rd pair guy?  So what.. Great !  We need those ..every team does ..

Second ..we already knew he has no offense ..but if he can munch minutes and hold the fort at home when Brz or Parekh goes shooting up the ice ..well . We need that too.. 

Rhett Warrener made a pretty good living at being good at one thing .. off the glass and out .. 

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1 hour ago, Thebrewcrew said:

There’s value in these models, but I question whether or not these folks actually watch the games. The comments on this tweet don’t seem to agree with him.

The analytical community doesn’t give enough credence to the idea that you need different types of players throughout your lineup. You can’t ice six Zayne Parekh’s on your blueline.

 

Even if Grushnikov doesn’t pan out. He was a late 2nd round pick. Wouldn’t be the first to

not pan out. He was traded for a 34yr old rental. It would have been amazing to get a 1st. But the Flames were never extracting a top prospect for Tanev

 

I really like Byron and his stuff. I think his model is good at identifying where to focus your attention in the draft because I think it highlights talent and helps reduce/eliminate bias (ie size, birth certificate etc). But it's based entirely on production and you still need to acquire additional skill sets which is why Byron's takes and comments when it comes to prospects, current players or trades falls off a cliff. 

 

At the same time though analytics is like any source of information, if you lean into too heavy you'll expose other biases. Needs to be used as one of the tools and not thee tool. 

 

I've only seen him play a couple games but i'll be surprised if you don't see Gurshnikov in the NHL. He's too natural a defender. 

 

 

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5 minutes ago, cross16 said:

 

I really like Byron and his stuff. I think his model is good at identifying where to focus your attention in the draft because I think it highlights talent and helps reduce/eliminate bias (ie size, birth certificate etc). But it's based entirely on production and you still need to acquire additional skill sets which is why Byron's takes and comments when it comes to prospects, current players or trades falls off a cliff. 

 

At the same time though analytics is like any source of information, if you lean into too heavy you'll expose other biases. Needs to be used as one of the tools and not thee tool. 

 

I've only seen him play a couple games but i'll be surprised if you don't see Gurshnikov in the NHL. He's too natural a defender. 

 

 

 

I like to hear takes on our AHL guys.  When you only see points, you don't get a good read on the player.  You may worry about a guy that isn't scoring before he gets to the NHL.  But if the rest of the game is solid and it's a skill that is sometimes neglected in favor of goals, then it's a good sign.

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5 hours ago, cross16 said:

 

I really like Byron and his stuff. I think his model is good at identifying where to focus your attention in the draft because I think it highlights talent and helps reduce/eliminate bias (ie size, birth certificate etc). But it's based entirely on production and you still need to acquire additional skill sets which is why Byron's takes and comments when it comes to prospects, current players or trades falls off a cliff. 

 

At the same time though analytics is like any source of information, if you lean into too heavy you'll expose other biases. Needs to be used as one of the tools and not thee tool. 

 

I've only seen him play a couple games but i'll be surprised if you don't see Gurshnikov in the NHL. He's too natural a defender. 

 

 

Maybe a bit off-topic, but I dealt with a lot of algorithm builds in my younger, more productive years when they were coming to light.

The conclusion, inevitably, and to keep it short, is they are great indicators. Once they tried to progress into being more specific, it just doesn't work.

So as they tried to adjust formulas to results, we started reporting back a catchphrase, "you're putting Satoshi Nakamoto data in, and getting Satoshi Nakamoto data back".

Great indicators, or better put, leading you to assess. Then the human assessments have to kick in. Software can't do that for you.

As I know I've been a bit outspoken about stats in the past, it's as cross says. It's just one tool in your toolbox, and it's no more important than being a hammer when you need a wrench. Every tool is of equal importance.

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As another aside, look at our draft Byron. Why not talk about that?

The days of raining Satoshi Nakamoto on Calgary are over. Get with the Blockchaining times.

We just absolutely crushed a draft where we're not a top 5 team in the draft. Crushed it.

And this is what you choose to post on July 9th. Satoshi Nakamototing on us.

That tells me everything that I need to know about you.

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9 hours ago, travel_dude said:

 

I like to hear takes on our AHL guys.  When you only see points, you don't get a good read on the player.  You may worry about a guy that isn't scoring before he gets to the NHL.  But if the rest of the game is solid and it's a skill that is sometimes neglected in favor of goals, then it's a good sign.

💯..   guys not getting points don't usually get much love . It's up to the development to hone him into shut down roles now .

It's like that goalie we drafted .. time will tell obviously but what stood out was he had very good stats on a very bad team .. likely got knocked down in his ranking due to not many wins and goals allowed..but he was getting peppered game after game 

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3 hours ago, conundrumed said:

As another aside, look at our draft Byron. Why not talk about that?

The days of raining Satoshi Nakamoto on Calgary are over. Get with the Blockchaining times.

We just absolutely crushed a draft where we're not a top 5 team in the draft. Crushed it.

And this is what you choose to post on July 9th. Satoshi Nakamototing on us.

That tells me everything that I need to know about you.

 

To be fair, he did. 

 

He is a Flames fan, or at least a follower of the Flames. 

 

 

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that tweet is particularly flawed, but, then, it's twitter, so...

 

nothing new there.

 

the lesson to be learned here is that not a lot of math geniuses have time to post trash on twitter.   

 

"6% of mid-2nd rounders make the NHL"?   false in all ways.  not even close.

 

"they always end up in a bottom-pairing role"    total garbage

 

 

His math isn't just bad, it's bad bad.   Even for twitter.    But you have to visit twitter to be subjected to that kind of thing.

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