2024 NHL draft - A New Hope

[Thebrewcrew]

@conundrumed

 

How about that O'Reilly hey? Player of the game tonght.

[robrob74]

1 hour ago, The_People1 said:

 

That's exactly it.  Helenius is absolutely not gone by then.  That's just his list.  Who in their right mind has Helenius 3oa?  And so, if that's also Tod Button's list, then we going to take Helenius over Dickinson, Buium, Silayev, etc.

I haven't seen him at 3OA but a few picks before the Flames, just not as high as Craig has him. 

[Thebrewcrew]

Not sure how close Craig and Tod Button evaluations of players are. Decided to take a look

 

Last few Flames 1sts

 

Honzek- Craig Button had him 22nd. 16th to Calgary 

 

Coronato- had him 11th. Flames took him 13th, but was the 12th player off the board. Arizona had a forfeited pick.

 

Zary- Button had him 12th. Flames took him 24th. Calgary clearly didn’t have him quite that high. If they did they would have never traded back once, let alone twice.

Pelletier- didn’t have him ranked as a first rounder. To be fair though he has a late first rounder .

 

I think it’s hard to read too much into Craig’s rankings and thinking that’s what the Flames board is.

[conundrumed]

4 hours ago, Thebrewcrew said:

@conundrumed

 

How about that O'Reilly hey? Player of the game tonght.

I wish he’d cut it out, everyone’s watching. lol I liked when everyone had him at 60. 60% at the dot to boot. Sweet goal. nice assist on the almost shorty-penalty just expired. I’ve been liking his game since about January and he keeps getting better it seems. Guess we know Toronto’s pick.😪

[conundrumed]

4 hours ago, Thebrewcrew said:

Not sure how close Craig and Tod Button evaluations of players are. Decided to take a look

 

Last few Flames 1sts

 

Honzek- Craig Button had him 22nd. 16th to Calgary 

 

Coronato- had him 11th. Flames took him 13th, but was the 12th player off the board. Arizona had a forfeited pick.

 

Zary- Button had him 12th. Flames took him 24th. Calgary clearly didn’t have him quite that high. If they did they would have never traded back once, let alone twice.

Pelletier- didn’t have him ranked as a first rounder. To be fair though he has a late first rounder .

 

I think it’s hard to read too much into Craig’s rankings and thinking that’s what the Flames board is.

When you have a team of scouts, it's impossible to present them with, "here's what my brother thinks". I'm positive Conroy would be hearing from his amateur scouts, and Tod would be going to join his brother.

That conversation would start with, "Well, I guess you have no reason to be paying us".

They'd have zero problem landing a job with a different team. They are not peons by any stretch of the imagination.

If Craig Button had an inkling of the Flames scouting, Tod would be in a room with their legal team pointing out non-disclosure agreements. Craig would know that. He'd be hanging his brother.

There is just no way they are dumb enough to test an oil magnate's business dealings.

If Craig were an actual scout, he'd be one. Go through his lists over the course of a season. He's blowing in the wind on recency bias. It's what he does and always does. That's your 1st indication that he is, by no means, close to being an NHL scout. He's a TV personality with a face for radio. lol This coming from someone that really likes him.

@robrob74, that autocorrect from Lindstrom to Windstorm is fantastic. You just gave him an epic nickname.

Dude owes you money!!

 

[conundrumed]

I don't love these assessments, but CF should eventually get better at this stuff.

3 reports on Sam O'Reilly. You have to scroll to the bottom and read up to follow the timeline.

He's a C/RW, RW is special teams, or used to be. I feel like CF is AI-mechanics. lol

But they show progression from report 1 to 3. It's kind of them not being great at scouting, but even they are picking up on progress in O'Reilly...although it's things they missed in the previous report.

It's missed, a lot, that the Knights are run as a pro team more than any other CHL team. O'Reilly and Dickinson don't go past Sr players. They're support players. Play D-sound, you'll get your chance next year type-thing.

This area used to be "Jr A", CHL, and Jr B, GOJHL, currently. The London Nationals are their AHL team. If the Hunter group grabs you and sends you to the Nationals, they are guiding you. Big time.

Regardless, these reports leave out a really important aspect, compete-level. The thing that impresses me most, and I was really afraid that he would have a solid tourney. Here we are, the guy that consistently outworks everyone on the ice, imho.

https://www.capfriendly.com/scouting-reports/players/sam-oreilly

[The_People1]

Thoughts on Charlie Elick with the Flames 28th pick?  He's from Calgary.  6'-3" 200 lbs stay at home type.  Skates well.  Reads well.  Defends solid.  Just no offense.

[Thebrewcrew]

4 hours ago, The_People1 said:

Thoughts on Charlie Elick with the Flames 28th pick?  He's from Calgary.  6'-3" 200 lbs stay at home type.  Skates well.  Reads well.  Defends solid.  Just no offense.

Reminds me of Braden Schneider.

 

Schneider had more point production in 2020,  but he was an older player in that class. His production when he was the same age as Elick was quite similar.

[The_People1]

2 hours ago, Thebrewcrew said:

Reminds me of Braden Schneider.

 

Schneider had more point production in 2020,  but he was an older player in that class. His production when he was the same age as Elick was quite similar.

 

Not bad then.  Schneider is a 4/5/6.  No offense but I can see a solid 10-12 year NHL career as a shut down D.  Potentially in the Tanev mold.  Elick has NHL size and RHS RD.  Pretty good skating agility for defending.

[robrob74]

55 minutes ago, The_People1 said:

 

Not bad then.  Schneider is a 4/5/6.  No offense but I can see a solid 10-12 year NHL career as a shut down D.  Potentially in the Tanev mold.  Elick has NHL size and RHS RD.  Pretty good skating agility for defending.

 

I heard a commentator, I think one they have on from LA talk about how Schneider was a great pick and a big part of the run for them this year... underrated I guess?

[conundrumed]

Should be a great playoff in the Memorial Cup. You end up wishing these could be series. Moose Jaw got their legs under them. Do they have enough video of Parekh getting caught, "flat-footed", as they call it?

Winner vs London. Guessing the next lists put Dickinson in the top 5 and fairly big movement from O'Reilly.

O'Reilly has better numbers than Cowan in his draft year, for perspective.

[sak22]

13 hours ago, robrob74 said:

 

I heard a commentator, I think one they have on from LA talk about how Schneider was a great pick and a big part of the run for them this year... underrated I guess?

He's playing good as a #6, sure he could play more on other teams, but I don't really think he is anything special I was fine with Zary over him on draft day 2020 and still am.

[robrob74]

17 minutes ago, sak22 said:

He's playing good as a #6, sure he could play more on other teams, but I don't really think he is anything special I was fine with Zary over him on draft day 2020 and still am.

but I think that's the thing, people say nothing special for depth, but it's the depth that wins cups. When depth can't play, the players higher up in the roster play more and either get tired or injured due to fatigue...

 

not trying to say go him over Zary, although I wanted him over Zary at the time, just that that depth helps win. I am happy to have Zary. And hope he continues the trajectory.
 

I think when teams bandaid depth it isn't that great. The Flames used to do that, and I saw a shift when signing Hathaway... but still need to keep other holes filled.

[Thebrewcrew]

I think it’s a “beauty in the eye of the beholder” with players like Schneider and Elick.

 

I would be fine if Calgary took Elick 28th.  RHS D are so hard to acquire. 
 

I think it’s a matter of philosophy. It gets harder to find NHL players the further you get from the top ten of the draft. I think Elick will be an NHLer. I just don’t think the upside is crazy high. Probably getting a solid defensive defenceman, but I don’t think you’re getting much offence out of him. There’s still value in that. Ultimately it comes down to, what do you want? 

[The_People1]

14 hours ago, robrob74 said:

 

I heard a commentator, I think one they have on from LA talk about how Schneider was a great pick and a big part of the run for them this year... underrated I guess?

 

Those bottom pair D are always unsung heros.  You need them.  Can't overlook their importance.

[The_People1]

31 minutes ago, Thebrewcrew said:

I think it’s a “beauty in the eye of the beholder” with players like Schneider and Elick.

 

I would be fine if Calgary took Elick 28th.  RHS D are so hard to acquire. 
 

I think it’s a matter of philosophy. It gets harder to find NHL players the further you get from the top ten of the draft. I think Elick will be an NHLer. I just don’t think the upside is crazy high. Probably getting a solid defensive defenceman, but I don’t think you’re getting much offence out of him. There’s still value in that. Ultimately it comes down to, what do you want? 

 

Yes but Tanev didn't have offense either yet, he was arguably the Flames MVP the past few seasons.  Brett Pesce, Brayden McNabb, Jake Muzzin, etc.  those types don't score but so hard to play against.  I don't know enough about Elick but if he's that type of D, then I would be really excited for the Flames to pick him.

[robrob74]

It would be nice to have a well-rounded team for once. Another Tanev type player the past few years would have done a lot. 
 

having Leopold on the Fan the other day talking about '04, he was like, loved playing with Reggie and we just seemed to get each other. It was a sort of offensive D with a defensive D. Would like to see balance like that. 
 

getting Hanifin away from Andersson helped him get some higher offensive numbers where he wasn't the defender of the pair. While decent on both sides, Hanifin isn't a true shut down D, but a really good D nonetheless. 
 

but I just think as we build, build both sides of a pair.

 

get a speedy offensive winger for Zary and they'll push the play on the second line. 
 

 

[conundrumed]

8 hours ago, robrob74 said:

getting Hanifin away from Andersson

I was always quite negative on that pairing. I don't dislike either player, but together just created imbalance.

Add Weegar, and suddenly you really need a solid 5th stay-at-home guy to balance Weegar, Andersson, Hanifin.

It never materialized. Tried Weegar-Andersson, but as always seems the case, never allow time to gel.

As for Elick at 28, I'm not interested. EJ Emery could be there, though. Maybe at 41 for Elick, but even there you may get Pulkkinen. I feel like you can get Danford or Strahan later and that's pretty Elick-equivalent imho. I'm just not that high on Elick.

And we have to stop suggesting every stay-at-home dman is Tanev. Are we building a shrine for Tanev now? Like wtf? This pedestal thing is getting way over-played.

[robrob74]

1 hour ago, conundrumed said:

I was always quite negative on that pairing. I don't dislike either player, but together just created imbalance.

Add Weegar, and suddenly you really need a solid 5th stay-at-home guy to balance Weegar, Andersson, Hanifin.

It never materialized. Tried Weegar-Andersson, but as always seems the case, never allow time to gel.

As for Elick at 28, I'm not interested. EJ Emery could be there, though. Maybe at 41 for Elick, but even there you may get Pulkkinen. I feel like you can get Danford or Strahan later and that's pretty Elick-equivalent imho. I'm just not that high on Elick.

And we have to stop suggesting every stay-at-home dman is Tanev. Are we building a shrine for Tanev now? Like wtf? This pedestal thing is getting way over-played.

think it's just a formula. Like Reghr... JBou was more of a defensive guy that a lot ran out of town and was mobile and really good, but the wrong timing where the team was at at the time. But I'm just using Tanev as the recent comp to what is needed. Depth and defensive depth. 
 

firm believer that a good D can make A goalie look good. They're all mostly really good at this level so, I think a lot depends on the style of play with the goalie style but also the defence. I believe a team game with good d wins.
 

But that's not to say no offence. That's needed too. Just going off your idea of a good balanced roster with depth. Real players where they are supposed to be inserted throughout the lineup.

[conundrumed]

24 minutes ago, robrob74 said:

think it's just a formula. Like Reghr... JBou was more of a defensive guy that a lot ran out of town and was mobile and really good, but the wrong timing where the team was at at the time. But I'm just using Tanev as the recent comp to what is needed. Depth and defensive depth. 
 

firm believer that a good D can make A goalie look good. They're all mostly really good at this level so, I think a lot depends on the style of play with the goalie style but also the defence. I believe a team game with good d wins.
 

But that's not to say no offence. That's needed too. Just going off your idea of a good balanced roster with depth. Real players where they are supposed to be inserted throughout the lineup.

In this draft, after Levshunov and Dickinson being the top physical/effective over-scouted dmen, Straham and Danford are more your Reggie style that will be available later.

[cross16]

I haven't watch enough to comment on Elick specifically but I'm personally against the idea of drafting the stay at home type dman who struggle with offense. Not the Devon Toews of the world who can shut down and still move the puck that I'm all for but if I don't believe in drafting the guys who are not capable of offense. Nothing against the role or the important of it but rather you can always find guys like that. Drafting has to be based more on upside and ceiling and the more lower ceiling players you take the less of a chance it is your going to land an NHL player 

 

Don't get me wrong I loved Robyn Regehr when he played but I don't think he would thrive in the game today. 

[The_People1]

39 minutes ago, cross16 said:

I haven't watch enough to comment on Elick specifically but I'm personally against the idea of drafting the stay at home type dman who struggle with offense. Not the Devon Toews of the world who can shut down and still move the puck that I'm all for but if I don't believe in drafting the guys who are not capable of offense. Nothing against the role or the important of it but rather you can always find guys like that. Drafting has to be based more on upside and ceiling and the more lower ceiling players you take the less of a chance it is your going to land an NHL player 

 

Don't get me wrong I loved Robyn Regehr when he played but I don't think he would thrive in the game today. 

 

Fair enough.  At the end of the day, putting the puck in the net is the hardest thing to do in the NHL.  Pure shut down D are more of the 2nd round pick variety.

 

That said, based on Elick's highlight package, he moves well for a stay at home type.  His lateral/agility is good, balance is excellent, and his skating is smooth.  He's just passive on offense but there is puck moving abilities.

[travel_dude]

10 hours ago, conundrumed said:

I was always quite negative on that pairing. I don't dislike either player, but together just created imbalance.

Add Weegar, and suddenly you really need a solid 5th stay-at-home guy to balance Weegar, Andersson, Hanifin.

It never materialized. Tried Weegar-Andersson, but as always seems the case, never allow time to gel.

As for Elick at 28, I'm not interested. EJ Emery could be there, though. Maybe at 41 for Elick, but even there you may get Pulkkinen. I feel like you can get Danford or Strahan later and that's pretty Elick-equivalent imho. I'm just not that high on Elick.

And we have to stop suggesting every stay-at-home dman is Tanev. Are we building a shrine for Tanev now? Like wtf? This pedestal thing is getting way over-played.

 

I would prefer to look at Pulkkinen in the 2nd round.  If he is still there.  

[travel_dude]

9 hours ago, robrob74 said:

think it's just a formula. Like Reghr... JBou was more of a defensive guy that a lot ran out of town and was mobile and really good, but the wrong timing where the team was at at the time. But I'm just using Tanev as the recent comp to what is needed. Depth and defensive depth. 
 

firm believer that a good D can make A goalie look good. They're all mostly really good at this level so, I think a lot depends on the style of play with the goalie style but also the defence. I believe a team game with good d wins.
 

But that's not to say no offence. That's needed too. Just going off your idea of a good balanced roster with depth. Real players where they are supposed to be inserted throughout the lineup.

 

JBou was initially an offensive D-man, even when he entered the league.  He was used more as a defensive one once he got to CGY and later in STL, where they live on that.  With that in mind, JBou is what you should target if you want a stay-at-home D-man.  Has the offense if you needed it, but his puck moving and defensive skills win games.

 

Perhaps I remember him too fondly, but I felt we made one of the smartest decisions in trading for his rights.  Later, we started ruining the defense with dumb arse trades with EDM, TOR, etc.

[robrob74]

Really just highlighted Reggie and Leopold just to mention the balance. Not saying go for a Reggie, we tried that with getting that D guy in the trade that got us the extra pick in the Jankowski year. I don't think that player does as well in this NHL. Last thing I want is a slow D who can't keep up on rushes.

 

just mentioning building the roster with depth is more difficult than some suggest. Even with cross saying, those players can be added later, we saw how hard it was to fill those spots later with actual good depth for a

very long time. That good depth filler don't come to Calgary, they go to the Stanley Cup champs. Hathaway was a good depth add, but once he wanted $1.5M he left. Not sure if he wanted out or if we didn't want to sign him. Lomberg was a decent add that we didn't have patience to see through. But still, it's been tough to add good proper cup winning depth. 
 

I just don't see it as easy as many think. I'm not saying draft them in the first round. Just that there's value in finding guys that can play quality 3rd pair or 3rd/4th line minutes.