2023 Calgary Flames NHL Draft

[cross16]

36 minutes ago, robrob74 said:

bit there in lies the need to take a chance that they weren't willing to take.

 

Which they did with Gaudreau. Think the baseline of what is safe and what is riskier isn't fair here. 

 

Every team in the NHL passed on Kucherov and almost every single team passed twice. 

[robrob74]

2 minutes ago, cross16 said:

 

Which they did with Gaudreau. Think the baseline of what is safe and what is riskier isn't fair here. 

 

Every team in the NHL passed on Kucherov and almost every single team passed twice. 

but they were going to wait another round with Gaudreau, but once Kuch was taken a round earlier they felt it was best to take Gaudreau when they did.

[robrob74]

3 minutes ago, cross16 said:

 

Which they did with Gaudreau. Think the baseline of what is safe and what is riskier isn't fair here. 

 

Every team in the NHL passed on Kucherov and almost every single team passed twice. 

passing is the gamble teams make when they think their guy is a round later than they think they'd go...

[cross16]

i don't really follow the logic here....

 

But either way we have perhaps 1 example of the Flames being "safe" but their MO is they always take the safe pick?

 

Doesn't add up for me. 

[conundrumed]

At the end of the day, there really aren't "safe" picks, just higher floors. It still doesn't matter until they progress. A "safe" pick is prolly better defined as a better all-around game which is a big plus. Lots of high end guys seem to have peaked at 17 and never made it. So playing the high risk game isn't all that it's cracked up to be. The DeBrincat's are outliers.

Gambling in the top 50 is not a great idea unless you already have prospects that allow you to take a flier. We seriously can't afford to take a gamble this time around. I'd call both Yager and Cristall gambles. That's just my opinion though not seeing their games translate well. I felt the same about DeBrincat for reference. But he's an exception, not the rule.

Galchenyuk and Yakupov taught me well.lol

[conundrumed]

This is a pretty good write-up that I like. Some things are just zany to me but he's offering his opinion and overall there's a ton of info. He has us landing at Moore and Bonk:

https://www.recruitscouting.com/2023-nhl-draft-rankings-gabriel-foleys-top-100/

[cross16]

10 hours ago, conundrumed said:

At the end of the day, there really aren't "safe" picks, just higher floors. It still doesn't matter until they progress. A "safe" pick is prolly better defined as a better all-around game which is a big plus. Lots of high end guys seem to have peaked at 17 and never made it. So playing the high risk game isn't all that it's cracked up to be. The DeBrincat's are outliers.

Gambling in the top 50 is not a great idea unless you already have prospects that allow you to take a flier. We seriously can't afford to take a gamble this time around. I'd call both Yager and Cristall gambles. That's just my opinion though not seeing their games translate well. I felt the same about DeBrincat for reference. But he's an exception, not the rule.

Galchenyuk and Yakupov taught me well.lol

 

Agreed. That term I think applies more to sports like football where you are drafting players for your immediate roster. i don't think there is a concept of "safe" in a draft where you are trying to project a minimum 2-3 years down the road. 

[Thebrewcrew]

3 hours ago, cross16 said:

 

Agreed. That term I think applies more to sports like football where you are drafting players for your immediate roster. i don't think there is a concept of "safe" in a draft where you are trying to project a minimum 2-3 years down the road. 

100%.

 

In the NFL you can take a guard with your first pick. It’s the “least noticeable” position on the field. It can fill a need, even if the upside isn’t that high. WR may be BPA, but if you’re the Bengals it doesn’t make sense.

 

Just look at the Flames. When Pelletier was drafted they were loaded on LW. Now that he’s ready to be an NHLer four years later it’s not quite the case.

 

The whole “safe” pick thing on these boards are fuelled by the trade down in 2020. Zary was viewed as having a projectable game, which earned him the label of “safe”. It also bothers some that Braden Schneider is already an NHLer, although I would agree he too was a safe pick as I don’t think the upside there is tremendous.
 

 

[The_People1]

3 minutes ago, Thebrewcrew said:

100%.

 

In the NFL you can take a guard with your first pick. It’s the “least noticeable” position on the field. It can fill a need, even if the upside isn’t that high. WR may be BPA, but if you’re the Bengals it doesn’t make sense.

 

Just look at the Flames. When Pelletier was drafted they were loaded on LW. Now that he’s ready to be an NHLer four years later it’s not quite the case.

 

The whole “safe” pick thing on these boards are fuelled by the trade down in 2020. Zary was viewed as having a projectable game, which earned him the label of “safe”. It also bothers some that Braden Schneider is already an NHLer, although I would agree he too was a safe pick as I don’t think the upside there is tremendous.

 

Flames are loaded on LW.  What are you talking about?  Hubderdeau doesn't want to play one more shift on RW ever again.  Mange, Dube, even Coleman and Ruzicka.  But I know what you mean, it's hard to see 4 years into the future.

 

In the NFL, kids are 22 when drafted.  They are ready and can jump right into the league.  In the NHL, they are 18 and need a year or four.

 

To me "safe" means "high floor and low ceiling"... like, mid-6 types.  These players are important when building a team through the draft but the high ceiling ones make or break a team.

[conundrumed]

10 hours ago, The_People1 said:

 

Flames are loaded on LW.  What are you talking about?  Hubderdeau doesn't want to play one more shift on RW ever again.  Mange, Dube, even Coleman and Ruzicka.  But I know what you mean, it's hard to see 4 years into the future.

To me "safe" means "high floor and low ceiling"... like, mid-6 types.  These players are important when building a team through the draft but the high ceiling ones make or break a team.

Safe is high floor. It only means if he can't quite cut it for top 6, should be a shoo-in for bottom 6. As opposed to high ceiling-low floor, which is top 6 or bust. My interpretation.

So Cristall would be high ceiling-low floor, Musty high ceiling-high floor. Maybe Phillips vs Coleman in a worst case scenario. Not a perfect comparison, but something like that.

Loaded on LW is a matter of opinion. We don't seem to have an effective 2LW. Coleman and Dube are both better at RW so why force that issue? Hopefully Pelletier can be a 2LW, but we're still lacking size with skill at wings which I think is why we have zero net presence.

Barlow would be ideal for us honestly, and amongst the after Carlsson picks is the closest to NHL ready. The problem with him is what's next? Hard to send back to jr, he threw up 30g in 59 games as a 16yo. 46 in 59 last year. I don't normally subscribe to not sending back to jr, but that's ridiculous.

He'll be gone, so I think I'm hanging my hat on Musty. Skilled size still matters a lot in this league and we just don't really have any. While D cores are getting bigger and better on many teams. Unfortunately, we need that too. Which is why I'd also champion Simashev. Just no more small wingers, we have too many.

[conundrumed]

TSN 2 showing the Centennial Cup at 2pm MST. Are the Brooks Bandits ever not in the finals?lol

 

[Thebrewcrew]

2 hours ago, conundrumed said:

TSN 2 showing the Centennial Cup at 2pm MST. Are the Brooks Bandits ever not in the finals?lol

 

 Just look at this roster. Absolutely loaded with commitments. They recruit essentially all of Canada and the US. The AJ is really hard to follow now. It’s Brooks in one tier, Spruce Grove and Okotoks in the next, then everyone else. Teams like the Canucks and Olds can’t even compete in this league anymore.

[conundrumed]

26 minutes ago, Thebrewcrew said:

 Just look at this roster. Absolutely loaded with commitments. They recruit essentially all of Canada and the US. The AJ is really hard to follow now. It’s Brooks in one tier, Spruce Grove and Okotoks in the next, then everyone else. Teams like the Canucks and Olds can’t even compete in this league anymore.

And a pair from Kyiv!😃

Celebrini bros will be together at BU.

Tight game, Brooks is all over them, but goalie battle. Oops, 1-0 Brooks.

[Thebrewcrew]

I think 4 D are going before 16th. Someone good is going to fall to the Flames. 

 

Just look at BUF, they are trading/out or they are taking a D. They have 10 NHLers/high end prospects aged 25 or younger at forward. 

 

Now you can argue the Flames need to take a D and I'll listen. They aren't in the spot where they have too many forward prospects like Buffalo though. They need to go BPA.

 

Zach Benson could be there for the Flames. Feels unlikely because he's an incredible talent, but there are size concerns.

[jjgallow]

4 hours ago, Thebrewcrew said:

I think 4 D are going before 16th. Someone good is going to fall to the Flames. 

 

Just look at BUF, they are trading/out or they are taking a D. They have 10 NHLers/high end prospects aged 25 or younger at forward. 

 

Now you can argue the Flames need to take a D and I'll listen. They aren't in the spot where they have too many forward prospects like Buffalo though. They need to go BPA.

 

Zach Benson could be there for the Flames. Feels unlikely because he's an incredible talent, but there are size concerns.

 

I think 4 D Should go before 16th.

 

But I don't think 4 D will go.   GMs have expiry dates often before D pay off.

 

So there is a good chance an excellent D will fall in our laps.

[robrob74]

11 hours ago, Thebrewcrew said:

I think 4 D are going before 16th. Someone good is going to fall to the Flames. 

 

Just look at BUF, they are trading/out or they are taking a D. They have 10 NHLers/high end prospects aged 25 or younger at forward. 

 

Now you can argue the Flames need to take a D and I'll listen. They aren't in the spot where they have too many forward prospects like Buffalo though. They need to go BPA.

 

Zach Benson could be there for the Flames. Feels unlikely because he's an incredible talent, but there are size concerns.

that could be something they do, trade down a few spots & get a D they want.

[The_People1]

12 hours ago, Thebrewcrew said:

I think 4 D are going before 16th. Someone good is going to fall to the Flames. 

 

Just look at BUF, they are trading/out or they are taking a D. They have 10 NHLers/high end prospects aged 25 or younger at forward. 

 

Now you can argue the Flames need to take a D and I'll listen. They aren't in the spot where they have too many forward prospects like Buffalo though. They need to go BPA.

 

Zach Benson could be there for the Flames. Feels unlikely because he's an incredible talent, but there are size concerns.

 

Which 4 D do you think it will be?  It's a weird draft where not many D are ranked top 15 consistently.  At most 2.  

[travel_dude]

3 hours ago, robrob74 said:

that could be something they do, trade down a few spots & get a D they want.

 

Unless there is a stud they really want, I would think they would go for a F first in that scenario.

[conundrumed]

5 hours ago, The_People1 said:

 

Which 4 D do you think it will be?  It's a weird draft where not many D are ranked top 15 consistently.  At most 2.  

For me, Reinbacher and Sandin-Pellikka are gone by 16. Simashev, Willander, Gulyayev are the other potential 1st rders. Someone could potentially reach on Strbak late.

The 2nd & 3rd rds will be D runs imho.

There are enough that a good prospect will still be available at 48. Lindstein or McCarthy could be there, that would be a solid add. Maybe a giant like Dvorak, but he's more of a project.

I'm not against a 2nd draft dman late, maybe a Luke Mittelstadt?

That no 3rd is painful though. An extra bullet for another dman in the top 20 dmen would be really nice.

But we've pissed away so many picks at this point that drafts become depressing.

That's why it's nice to have a fave Eastern team I guess...🫣

How loaded is Detroit going to get now?🥲

Edvinnson, Johansson, Wallinder, Soderblom, Kasper and Mazur could potentially join this year or next and still more beneath them. Then another 5 picks in the top 43 this year. The depth is insane. Yzerman's taking his sweet-assed time. Definitely could trade from prospects alone with not much impact on the pool.

I wish the Flames had half of that depth. We can't even afford to throw Zary in on a trade.

*end rant*

[Thebrewcrew]

19 hours ago, The_People1 said:

 

Which 4 D do you think it will be?  It's a weird draft where not many D are ranked top 15 consistently.  At most 2.  

As conundrumed said, Willander/Gulyayev/Simashev. Still wouldn't rule out Dragicevic. RHD that produces and just recently started playing D.

 

These teams evaluate these players so much differently than the public.

 

Two recent examples.

2021 draft. There was lots of talk on here about Mason Mctavish being the Flames pick. He was ranked around that 12th pick by the public. Went 3rd to ANA.

2019 draft. Mo Seider.  6th overall. The public had him in the rated in the teens. Friedman even asked Yzerman if the pick was a reach lol.

[jjgallow]

16 hours ago, conundrumed said:

For me, Reinbacher and Sandin-Pellikka are gone by 16

🫣.....(stuff that was right).....

🥲

We can't even afford to throw Zary in on a trade.

*end rant*

 

I agreed with everything you wrote, completely, except the very start and the very end lol.

 

I think we get a surprise and one of these two becomes available.  My reasoning is that teams are dumb.

    So ...if one is...do we jump?  Or  should we also be dumb?   Sounds easy now but I bet it'll be hard in the moment.

 

Zary:  We can absolutely afford to throw him in on a trade.   Imho we can afford to trade almost anyone that doesn't project to first line.    I do agree, however, that we can't trade him for a vet.   Could only do prospect for prospect, or pick.

[travel_dude]

8 minutes ago, jjgallow said:

Zary:  We can absolutely afford to throw him in on a trade.   Imho we can afford to trade almost anyone that doesn't project to first line.    I do agree, however, that we can't trade him for a vet.   Could only do prospect for prospect, or pick.

 

So trade a prospect for a prospect because so many teams want to trade away their top prospects for a possible lower ceiling prospect?  Hows about you play him in the NHL forst and decide what his proection is and could be.  I'm sure there are players occupying the top 6 in the NHL that weren't top 10 picks.  

[jjgallow]

What about goalies yo?

 

No big standouts like some years, but hard to tell if that's the forwards this year making the goalies look bad (or the goalies making the forwards looking good).  

 

Either way, some of them gonna turn out.

 

 

https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/news/2023-nhl-draft-10-goaltenders-you-need-to-know

 

https://www.eliteprospects.com/ranking-portal/9f1af34d-020e-4bc7-9fed-0b7ee77fd401/2023-nhl-draft-october-goalie-rankings-at-tendycentral-on-instagram

 

 

 

[conundrumed]

It'll be interesting to see if we have a later pick goalie on tap. I could go either way, we need everything. Interested to see what Sergeev does this year, back to Connecticut...or?...

We're about 20 days away from the annual, "target a prospect and run him into the ground" game. Who will be this year's winner?

[jjgallow]

2 hours ago, conundrumed said:

It'll be interesting to see if we have a later pick goalie on tap. I could go either way, we need everything. Interested to see what Sergeev does this year, back to Connecticut...or?...

We're about 20 days away from the annual, "target a prospect and run him into the ground" game. Who will be this year's winner?

 

I'm guessing back to Connecticut to finish up his degree?  But who knows.

 

Either way, if Wolf can make the jump then we will have room with the Wranglers for a goalie prospect.  I mean the only way there wouldn't is if Wolf stayed back and Sergeev moved up.  Nobody we draft this year will solve that problem (that's a topic on its own about the merits of acquiring another 20 year old G) except possibly a very, very special over-ager, but imho it still makes a lot of sense to pick a goalie up every year as long as one pops up as bpa.   I mean really what's the worst case scenario?  too many good goalie prospects?  sounds aweful lol

 

There are some decent 19 year olds out there.   i never quite understand whether to draft them or pto  them.   But that actually could be a good way to acquire another prospect and possibly have someone for the Wranglers, maybe maybe.  Unlikely but possible

 

Lots of 6'0 goalies out there this year as well.   Would be nice to get 6'2 or taller and still talented, as a Wolf hedge, although I'm not seeing as many of these as in past years.