2022 Offseason

[sak22]

5 minutes ago, The_People1 said:

 

These things take time though

And deadlines exist, so if they are desperate enough to give up 4 firsts they would act quick enough to make it happen.

[The_People1]

8 minutes ago, JTech780 said:

It was on the table regardless, this just pushes the deadline back a week or two.

 

To me it signals the idea that initial talks went poorly and now the Flames needed to protect themselves by extending the negotiation period.

[cross16]

1 minute ago, The_People1 said:

 

Ya I don't see how Flames gain leverage if the result is a 1-year award from arbitration.  Flames only gain time.  Tkachuk still has the upper hand.

 

This won't change the result No but it is a small gain in leverage from the Flames because it removes the chance that Tkachuk took his qualifying offer this week. A qualifying offer is a contract offer so all Tkachuk would have had to do is sign it and he's locked in for 1 year and UFA next year, no notice to the Flames or anything. Now that is off the table. 

 

But agreed, he very much still has the upper hand but the Flames did take a card out of his deck. 

[The_People1]

1 minute ago, sak22 said:

And deadlines exist, so if they are desperate enough to give up 4 firsts they would act quick enough to make it happen.

 

No this is even better for NJ knowing Tkachuk is UFA next summer after arbitration.  They will keep their 4 first round picks and sign Tkachuk next summer.

[robrob74]

6 minutes ago, The_People1 said:

 

Ya I don't see how Flames gain leverage if the result is a 1-year award from arbitration.  Flames only gain time.  Tkachuk still has the upper hand.

the other thing it gets for the flames is a deal done so they know what they have to spend to add by the start of the season 

[The_People1]

Just now, robrob74 said:

the other thing it gets for the flames is a deal done so they know what they have to spend to add by the start of the season 

 

Trues.  It means Tkachuk can't skip training camp and hold out.  

[sak22]

3 minutes ago, The_People1 said:

 

No this is even better for NJ knowing Tkachuk is UFA next summer after arbitration.  They will keep their 4 first round picks and sign Tkachuk next summer.

Well, has to be mutual interest there.  Playing the cousin angle too much, if he hits UFA next summer there will be a few players in that race.  I wouldn't put NJ high on that list unless they start showing signs on the ice.

[JTech780]

Personally I think a deal gets done or a trade happens before this ever gets to arbitration. I am not worried about the arbitration situation at all. 
 

IMO this is all about giving themselves more time to figure out a deal or a trade.

[The_Tribal Chief]

Im thinking Chucky doesnt come back he is to picky on the dollar and i dont think calgary wqill give it

[Thebrewcrew]

I think it's going to end up being an AAV of 10.5 on a 3-5yr deal. Gets Tkachuk another chance at a payday with the cap rising at ages 27-29

[phoenix66]

1 hour ago, Heartbreaker said:

 

Love.

This tells me they were fearful or maybe had knowledge of a possible Offer sheet .. because thats al this does is take that off the table..  shrewd move on BTs part 

[JTech780]

Tkachuk’s agent is all about taking things down to the wire, the issue here is that they will have no issue with going to arbitration.

 

IMO this extra two weeks is about trying to see if there is a team that A: will trade the assets Calgary is looking for in return for Tkachuk, and B: Tkachuk will be willing to sign long term with before the arbitration deadline.

 

Calgary really needs there to be a long term deal in place either way, because if not they aren’t getting much for Tkachuk in a trade.

 

I doubt they get a 1st for Tkachuk if this gets to arbitration.

[Thebrewcrew]

3 minutes ago, JTech780 said:

 

I doubt they get a 1st for Tkachuk if this gets to arbitration.

I think it would certainly be underwhelming.

 

Debrincat and Fiala as RFA's didn't get as much ad you'd have thought two months ago.

 

If it was NJ it could very well look like a protected 1st, Shakir Mukhammadulin and maybe Tatar or Johnsson to balance money.

 

The Flames wouldn't be getting the return they'd hope for for a 100pt player, which is why I think they end up caving to Tkachuk's demands.

[robrob74]

5 minutes ago, JTech780 said:

Tkachuk’s agent is all about taking things down to the wire, the issue here is that they will have no issue with going to arbitration.

 

IMO this extra two weeks is about trying to see if there is a team that A: will trade the assets Calgary is looking for in return for Tkachuk, and B: Tkachuk will be willing to sign long term with before the arbitration deadline.

 

Calgary really needs there to be a long term deal in place either way, because if not they aren’t getting much for Tkachuk in a trade.

 

I doubt they get a 1st for Tkachuk if this gets to arbitration.

i think they'd get a 1st, but I don't know how much more than that. Maybe a 1st and a 2nd or just a touch more? They really should have traded with NJ if that rumour was true. 

[robrob74]

3 minutes ago, Thebrewcrew said:

I think it would certainly be underwhelming.

 

Debrincat and Fiala as RFA's didn't get as much ad you'd have thought two months ago.

 

If it was NJ it could very well look like a protected 1st, Shakir Mukhammadulin and maybe Tatar or Johnsson to balance money.

 

The Flames wouldn't be getting the return they'd hope for for a 100pt player, which is why I think they end up caving to Tkachuk's demands.

yikes! 
 

this makes me think the Flames management sucks. Very poor asset management. 
 

on years that they should have sold the farm and get what they could they end up with possibly nothing... 

 

i get we haven't gotten to that fully but it is really looking that way. 

[Thebrewcrew]

1 minute ago, robrob74 said:

yikes! 
 

this makes me think the Flames management sucks. Very poor asset management. 
 

on years that they should have sold the farm and get what they could they end up with possibly nothing... 

 

i get we haven't gotten to that fully but it is really looking that way. 

It's been a weird trade market for RFA's.

 

Debrincat has two 40 goal seasons under his belt and he went for less than the Dougie/Hamonic deals. 

I think CHI just wanted a top 10 pick badly. 

 

Fiala put up 85pts and went for a mid-ish 1st and someone that wasn't even a top 10 prospect for them.

 

The flat cap doesn't help. Just look at Johnny, 115pts and a very soft market for him. Now factor in teams having to give up assets, not a great recipe.

[The_People1]

16 minutes ago, phoenix66 said:

This tells me they were fearful or maybe had knowledge of a possible Offer sheet .. because thats al this does is take that off the table..  shrewd move on BTs part 

 

At the same time, Flames should let him sign an offer sheet.  Flames have the cap space to match and can lock him up for 5-years.

[robrob74]

7 minutes ago, The_People1 said:

 

At the same time, Flames should let him sign an offer sheet.  Flames have the cap space to match and can lock him up for 5-years.

 

yup! Or if the offer brings a bunch of 1sts, it's worth what they might get in a trade. 
 

i feel this might get a deal done faster, but it also gives Tkachuk a lot more leverage because they can say you aren't getting much for me now and it's better to sign  for more...

 

I dunno. 
 

if Tkachuk was as good as everyone here thought, I'd have traded him last year. But then, I'm in a small group here that wanted to trade everyone the last three or four years. Basically the year we lost to Colorado I felt this team could never win. They almost didn't win round one this year and got smoked by the oilers, with help by refs of course...

[JTech780]

11 minutes ago, The_People1 said:

 

At the same time, Flames should let him sign an offer sheet.  Flames have the cap space to match and can lock him up for 5-years.

I don’t think there is a team out there that was going to give him a big offer sheet. He isn’t worth $10.5m, and he certainly isn’t worth 2 1sts a 2nd and a 3rd on top of $10.5m.

[cross16]

18 minutes ago, The_People1 said:

 

At the same time, Flames should let him sign an offer sheet.  Flames have the cap space to match and can lock him up for 5-years.

 

Yup. 

 

Again the fear of an offer sheet doesn't make any sense. The Flames no have reason to fear an offer sheet IMO and I actually don't think the Tkachuk camp would pursue one.  Not as much to gain as people think. 

[robrob74]

1 minute ago, JTech780 said:

I don’t think there is a team out there that was going to give him a big offer sheet. He isn’t worth $10.5m, and he certainly isn’t worth 2 1sts a 2nd and a 3rd on top of $10.5m.

 

it is why I thought he'd not get an offer sheet.

 

is 9.5 or less too little compensation if he was offered?

[robrob74]

2 minutes ago, cross16 said:

 

Yup. 

 

Again the fear of an offer sheet doesn't make any sense. The Flames no have reason to fear an offer sheet IMO and I actually don't think the Tkachuk camp gains much by an offer sheet. 

 

same! To me this makes no sense other than to know what Tkachuk's camp thinks before the season starts instead of waiting another month. BT should know what he wants by now. Whether it is stay or go at least. 

[Thebrewcrew]

2 minutes ago, robrob74 said:

 

same! To me this makes no sense other than to know what Tkachuk's camp thinks before the season starts instead of waiting another month. BT should know what he wants by now. Whether it is stay or go at least. 

The Flames have been so hyper-focused on Gaudreau, the biggest thing club-elected arbitration does is buy time.

 

They've likely been in contact throughout the offseason, but they've had less than a week with him being priority #1.

[cross16]

8 minutes ago, robrob74 said:

 

same! To me this makes no sense other than to know what Tkachuk's camp thinks before the season starts instead of waiting another month. BT should know what he wants by now. Whether it is stay or go at least. 

 

That was likely going to happen anyway. I think it's highly unlikely that Tkachuk would not sign his qualifying offer so had the Flames NOT elected for arbitration they likely wouldn't have known that by Friday. Tkachuk holding out was not a likely outcome here. 

 

The leverage play here for the Flames is it takes his qualifying offer off the table and grants them more time to work on an extension or trade without the fear of Tkachuk's camp calling them up and taking the qualifying offer. 

[JTech780]

17 minutes ago, cross16 said:

 

That was likely going to happen anyway. I think it's highly unlikely that Tkachuk would not sign his qualifying offer so had the Flames NOT elected for arbitration they likely wouldn't have known that by Friday. Tkachuk holding out was not a likely outcome here. 

 

The leverage play here for the Flames is it takes his qualifying offer off the table and grants them more time to work on an extension or trade without the fear of Tkachuk's camp calling them up and taking the qualifying offer. 

Yes and if it does go to arbitration and he gets more than $9m it really doesn’t change anything for the Flames. He ends up with 1 year bonfire UFA either way $9m vs $10m isn’t going to effect his trade value.