2022 Offseason

[travel_dude]

20 minutes ago, cross16 said:

Ya i'm in the camp this is about Philly and Philly vs Calgary. I think he'd be happy to play in either but obviously drawn to Philly but they need to clear cap room and are likely have problems doing that. 

 

It doesn't really make sense to me that this is about $. 

 

I get the sense that Philly has moved on, knowing full well they aren't signing Gaudreau.

They have no cap space and still have Tippett and Frost to sign.

Not that those are big money deals, but they would have a ton of work to get under.

Risto and Sanheim might give them a bit of room but not enough.

 

[cross16]

12 minutes ago, travel_dude said:

 

I get the sense that Philly has moved on, knowing full well they aren't signing Gaudreau.

They have no cap space and still have Tippett and Frost to sign.

Not that those are big money deals, but they would have a ton of work to get under.

Risto and Sanheim might give them a bit of room but not enough.

 

 

Been lots of suggestions they are still trying to move cap. 

[tmac70]

For me if JH is that competitive of a guy taking a home town discount to play for a team that is no where near being in contention in Philly is ridiculous. IMHO Johhny's agent is waiting for Tre to bump this to 10 Million and its done. I still beilve he signs and nothing in the media screrams major concern for me.  If he hits FA than its not about the money, right now its about the money, period. 

 

The one that does screams to be concerned with is Chucky. Matthew would sign an offer sheet in a heart beat, its well known its about the money, Daddy engrained that.  Matthew brings more to the table for NJ, than JG or any other club for that matter. NJ have a ton of small skilled guys, what they don't have is the power forward like Matthew. Is he worth the offer sheet price for NJ, YES. Love him or hate Matthew is a far bigger loss to this club than JG, however I belive JH signs, Matthew is gone. It was rumoured that NJ offered the 2nd overall and a roster player for MT, TRE said no. By him signing the offer sheet provides us no better ability to replace the player. The only other player in FA right now with similar tangibles is Evander Kane, thats a contract and player you do not want in your organization long term. 

[cross16]

I don't get the offer sheet concerns with Tkachuk. 

 

Up to 8.4 million the cost is a 1, 2 and a 3. I think a team would do that for Tkachuk but Flames would match in a heartbeat. 

8.4 to 10.5 is 2 1,s a 2 and a 3. Do we really see a team doing that? Even at 10.5 the Flames don't match? Also worth noting the only teams that can make this offer are: Anaheim, Arizona, Carolina, Chicago, CBJ, DET, EdM, LA, Mon, Nsh, NJ, NYI, Ott, SEA and VAN. I think it's safe to say that ANA, ARI, CHI, DET, MON are not going to make that offer. CBJ can't unless they are moving on from Laine. EDM can but that would really mess up their pursuit of a goalie. LA doesn't have the cap space, NSH likely doesn't have the budget, and the NYI would have to clear space to make that offer. 

So realistically you might have Carolina, NJ, OTT and SEA that are in a position to do this. I'd question why Tkachuk would want to sign in SEA (and honestly OTT for that matter) and this would be a very odd move for Carolina to make. End of the day we are not talking about a huge market here. 

If you are going past 10.5 your talking 4 1st round picks and I definitely do not see a team giving you 4 1sts for Tkachuk. 

 

I don't get the fear here. Not to mention that if Gaudreau walks those draft picks start to look pretty enticing

[travel_dude]

26 minutes ago, tmac70 said:

For me if JH is that competitive of a guy taking a home town discount to play for a team that is no where near being in contention in Philly is ridiculous. IMHO Johhny's agent is waiting for Tre to bump this to 10 Million and its done. I still beilve he signs and nothing in the media screrams major concern for me.  If he hits FA than its not about the money, right now its about the money, period. 

 

Why should he take a discount?  It's not going to be used to keep Monahan.

Last deal, he backed down and accepted a deal he really didn't like.

But pressure from his family made his take it.

 

I get the idea that FA is not about money, but really it's about annual salary.

He might be looking at close to $10M right now, over 8 years.

But a team has to outbid other teams for UFA's.

$10.5 x 7 sounds good, and he might get that offer from 2 teams.

Assuming Philly is ready to strip down the team to do it.

They would need to if it's $9M, $10M or $10.5M.

 

So, what I am getting at is that the deal's structure may be more important than the total $$.

Paying $15M now and $7.5 in the future or majority signing bonus may be the key.

The Flames get the 8th year to balance it out.

A 7 year deal has to balance it out in less time.

[tmac70]

8 minutes ago, cross16 said:

I don't get the offer sheet concerns with Tkachuk. 

 

Up to 8.4 million the cost is a 1, 2 and a 3. I think a team would do that for Tkachuk but Flames would match in a heartbeat. 

8.4 to 10.5 is 2 1,s a 2 and a 3. Do we really see a team doing that? Even at 10.5 the Flames don't match? Also worth noting the only teams that can make this offer are: Anaheim, Arizona, Carolina, Chicago, CBJ, DET, EdM, LA, Mon, Nsh, NJ, NYI, Ott, SEA and VAN. I think it's safe to say that ANA, ARI, CHI, DET, MON are not going to make that offer. CBJ can't unless they are moving on from Laine. EDM can but that would really mess up their pursuit of a goalie. LA doesn't have the cap space, NSH likely doesn't have the budget, and the NYI would have to clear space to make that offer. 

So realistically you might have Carolina, NJ, OTT and SEA that are in a position to do this. I'd question why Tkachuk would want to sign in SEA (and honestly OTT for that matter) and this would be a very odd move for Carolina to make. End of the day we are not talking about a huge market here. 

If you are going past 10.5 your talking 4 1st round picks and I definitely do not see a team giving you 4 1sts for Tkachuk. 

 

I don't get the fear here. 

Money!!! If anyonme is extrinsically motivated its the Tkachuks. If any one of the aforemetioned club offered that to him, why would he not sign it. The question is do the Flames match a 10-10.5 million dollar offer, I don't think they do unless JG is gone. You have to retain at least one of these guys. One is making 10-10.5 Million the other will be 9.5 or under. Can I see a team offfering this for Matthew, es, as a player whos about cashing in sign it yes. The guy checks a lot of boxes for a lot of the clubs you mentioned. If the rumors we true that NJ offered their 2nd and a roster player to CGY for MT, Tre just turned down a potential 1st line Center or at worst 2nd line center, why? IMHO because you can't repalce what this kid brings, so 100% he is worth the risk to the clubs you mention and I 100% belive he signs it if it does come in. 

[phoenix66]

18 minutes ago, cross16 said:

I don't get the offer sheet concerns with Tkachuk. 

 

Up to 8.4 million the cost is a 1, 2 and a 3. I think a team would do that for Tkachuk but Flames would match in a heartbeat. 

8.4 to 10.5 is 2 1,s a 2 and a 3. Do we really see a team doing that? Even at 10.5 the Flames don't match? Also worth noting the only teams that can make this offer are: Anaheim, Arizona, Carolina, Chicago, CBJ, DET, EdM, LA, Mon, Nsh, NJ, NYI, Ott, SEA and VAN. I think it's safe to say that ANA, ARI, CHI, DET, MON are not going to make that offer. CBJ can't unless they are moving on from Laine. EDM can but that would really mess up their pursuit of a goalie. LA doesn't have the cap space, NSH likely doesn't have the budget, and the NYI would have to clear space to make that offer. 

So realistically you might have Carolina, NJ, OTT and SEA that are in a position to do this. I'd question why Tkachuk would want to sign in SEA (and honestly OTT for that matter) and this would be a very odd move for Carolina to make. End of the day we are not talking about a huge market here. 

If you are going past 10.5 your talking 4 1st round picks and I definitely do not see a team giving you 4 1sts for Tkachuk. 

 

I don't get the fear here. 

On a positive note, seen a couple tweets now that the 2 sides are talking today..so maybe it's finally down to the contract itself.. we'll see.

 

 

I can totally see it ..if the rumors are to be believed , NJ was offering 2oa ++ already

I can see a scenario where he's not getting the number he wants from the flames.. signs an OS thinking they'll just match it and deal done ..  if that happens tho I hope they call his bluff and let him walk..  he's a young , scoring power forward. Wouid be top line on most teams .. seriously the kind of player you build around 

If Johnny does sign..and it's 10.5 or more ..we almost can't afford him or we become that watered down bottom 6 and D we see from teams like that ..

If Johnny doesn't sign.. i still wouldn't give him over 10..but a team like NJ I could see doing it in a heartbeat 

[conundrumed]

16 minutes ago, cross16 said:

I don't get the offer sheet concerns with Tkachuk. 

I don't get the fear here. 

My fear is non-existent, for what it's worth.

I get that this waiting game sucks, but there's a ton of talk all over that makes little sense.

As thin as it wears patience, we need to understand media needs "scoops" to keep listeners.

Whereas most aren't worth listening to.

If someone wants to throw everything at JG, oh well. The best place for him is with us. If it's beyond a markey value of $10per, let him go. We have to stay fiscally responsible. Barkov is $10 and deserves it. Is JG Barkov?

If we lose him, oh well. Let's do the same thing with Huberdeau next year. There are a lot of avenues.

[travel_dude]

43 minutes ago, conundrumed said:

My fear is non-existent, for what it's worth.

I get that this waiting game sucks, but there's a ton of talk all over that makes little sense.

As thin as it wears patience, we need to understand media needs "scoops" to keep listeners.

Whereas most aren't worth listening to.

If someone wants to throw everything at JG, oh well. The best place for him is with us. If it's beyond a markey value of $10per, let him go. We have to stay fiscally responsible. Barkov is $10 and deserves it. Is JG Barkov?

If we lose him, oh well. Let's do the same thing with Huberdeau next year. There are a lot of avenues.

 

I think it comes down to the structure of the deal.  The expectation is that is 8 years.  The extra year helps BT manage the AAV.  It may even be set up to allow a buy out in the final year, since we know that BT builds those in on deals taking the player to 35 or 36.  In theory, you find out from the agent what types of things his client is looking for and structure it that way.  Don't know if that took place.

 

As far as insiders, they know nothing.  BT has never tipped his hand in other negotiations.  Insiders "suggest" we have a plan B of Kadri.  I will believe that if he signs.  We have lots of needs.  I would like to see us do more than just negotiate one contract.  Trades are possible, even now that the draft is done.  We had a group of players that took us to the 2nd round in the playoffs.  Should be looking to solidify the team.  They know Tkachuk is going to be a tough negotiation, so explore trade options there.  Doing nothing suggests that BT only thinks in one dimension.  Johnny wants to see improvements to help us get to the 3rd round.  The other teams are trying to get to the playoffs, so he would need to be wary of going to a rebuild team or a team stripping to sign him.

[sak22]

 

Only Kinnvall and Parsons went unqualified

[cross16]

59 minutes ago, tmac70 said:

Money!!! If anyonme is extrinsically motivated its the Tkachuks. If any one of the aforemetioned club offered that to him, why would he not sign it. The question is do the Flames match a 10-10.5 million dollar offer, I don't think they do unless JG is gone. You have to retain at least one of these guys. One is making 10-10.5 Million the other will be 9.5 or under. Can I see a team offfering this for Matthew, es, as a player whos about cashing in sign it yes. The guy checks a lot of boxes for a lot of the clubs you mentioned. If the rumors we true that NJ offered their 2nd and a roster player to CGY for MT, Tre just turned down a potential 1st line Center or at worst 2nd line center, why? IMHO because you can't repalce what this kid brings, so 100% he is worth the risk to the clubs you mention and I 100% belive he signs it if it does come in. 

 

58 minutes ago, phoenix66 said:

On a positive note, seen a couple tweets now that the 2 sides are talking today..so maybe it's finally down to the contract itself.. we'll see.

 

 

I can totally see it ..if the rumors are to be believed , NJ was offering 2oa ++ already

I can see a scenario where he's not getting the number he wants from the flames.. signs an OS thinking they'll just match it and deal done ..  if that happens tho I hope they call his bluff and let him walk..  he's a young , scoring power forward. Wouid be top line on most teams .. seriously the kind of player you build around 

If Johnny does sign..and it's 10.5 or more ..we almost can't afford him or we become that watered down bottom 6 and D we see from teams like that ..

If Johnny doesn't sign.. i still wouldn't give him over 10..but a team like NJ I could see doing it in a heartbeat 

 

#1 no I don't believe the "rumors"

#2. This is really simple IMO. The Flames would match at anything 10.5 or less and at 10.5 or above is when they would start to question it and as I said I don't think any team is giving up 4 st round picks for Tkacuk. 

 

The only reason to fear an offer sheet IMO is if a team gives your player one you cannot afford to match. I don't see that scenario playing out here. 

[travel_dude]

4 minutes ago, sak22 said:

 

Only Kinnvall went unqualified

 

With Kinnvall, there seemed to be a mutual lack of interest.

The other guy not qualified was Parsons.

I am a little surprised with Phillips and Poolman. 

Poolman, Phillips and Tuulola all have arbitration rights.

Not that that matters much.

[The_People1]

7 minutes ago, cross16 said:

 

 

#1 no I don't believe the "rumors"

#2. This is really simple IMO. The Flames would match at anything 10.5 or less and at 10.5 or above is when they would start to question it and as I said I don't think any team is giving up 4 st round picks for Tkacuk. 

 

The only reason to fear an offer sheet IMO is if a team gives your player one you cannot afford to match. I don't see that scenario playing out here. 

 

Ya I believe the 4 first round pick level is reserved for McDavid, MacKinnon, Matthews, etc level of player.  Tkachuk is not there.  $10.4 makes it very uncomfortable for us but I think we match it especially if it's for a one year.

[The_People1]

In less than 48 hours, Gaudreau either signs or leaves via UFA and the real offseason begins for us.

[tmac70]

4 minutes ago, The_People1 said:

In less than 48 hours, Gaudreau either signs or leaves via UFA and the real offseason begins for us.

Thats my point, the only way you can determine it isn't about the money is when he hits the FA market. 

[travel_dude]

10 minutes ago, The_People1 said:

 

Ya I believe the 4 first round pick level is reserved for McDavid, MacKinnon, Matthews, etc level of player.  Tkachuk is not there.  $10.4 makes it very uncomfortable for us but I think we match it especially if it's for a one year.

 

No team is going to offer one year in an OS.  It doesn't make sense.

Pay a 1,2,3rd for one year?

[cross16]

35 minutes ago, sak22 said:

 

Only Kinnvall and Parsons went unqualified

 

No surprises here. 

[The_People1]

17 minutes ago, travel_dude said:

 

No team is going to offer one year in an OS.  It doesn't make sense.

Pay a 1,2,3rd for one year?

 

Only his uncle will... Because they would have an 8-year deal lined up under the table.

[The_People1]

20 minutes ago, tmac70 said:

Thats my point, the only way you can determine it isn't about the money is when he hits the FA market. 

 

Well, he has held us up to this point.  BT needs to pivot if Gaudreau leaves... So our off season cannot even begin yet... For example, we could've traded Tkachuk for 2OA and drafted Wright.  

[zima]

14 minutes ago, cross16 said:

 

No surprises here. 

I thought Kinnvall was a big part of the playoffs this season ?

[sak22]

2 minutes ago, zima said:

I thought Kinnvall was a big part of the playoffs this season ?

Maybe in spirit, but not on the ice.  He didn't play at all in the playoffs.

[sak22]

9 minutes ago, The_People1 said:

 

Well, he has held us up to this point.  BT needs to pivot if Gaudreau leaves... So our off season cannot even begin yet... For example, we could've traded Tkachuk for 2OA and drafted Wright.  

[travel_dude]

4 minutes ago, zima said:

I thought Kinnvall was a big part of the playoffs this season ?

 

Played 19 games the entire season.

Was scratched most of the time.

He signed back in Europe and the Flames have better options.

[LouCifer]

1 hour ago, cross16 said:

#1 no I don't believe the "rumors"

#2. This is really simple IMO. The Flames would match at anything 10.5 or less and at 10.5 or above is when they would start to question it and as I said I don't think any team is giving up 4 st round picks for Tkacuk. 

 

The only reason to fear an offer sheet IMO is if a team gives your player one you cannot afford to match. I don't see that scenario playing out here. 

I want to be clear that I don’t fear the offer sheet - I encourage it. Also cross, the scenario you’re not considering is if we sign Gaudreau. If Johnny comes in at $10 or $10.5, you think the flames will match a 1 year $10.5 offer sheet for Chucky? They won’t. #1 it’s too much salary for 2 players. #2 it walks Chucky right into UFA after this season where he can sign with NJ (or anyone else for that matter) and the Flames get absolute ZERO for him. The flames will NOT match an offer sheet that walks Chucky into UFA, and this scenario - as I mentioned originally - is dependent on Gaudreau signing with us. If Gaudreau walks, the flames have a lot of options with Chucky. 

 

54 minutes ago, travel_dude said:

 

No team is going to offer one year in an OS.  It doesn't make sense.

Pay a 1,2,3rd for one year?

TD, what did Carolina do to Montreal? Didn’t they offer sheet Kotkaniemi a 1 year contract at a salary that MTL couldn’t match, and as soon as Kotkaniemi was Carolina’s, they signed him to a longer contract at a cheaper AAV. This is the game. This is the plan. This is how it’s done. The future contract is already decided when they put together the offer-sheet. 

[cross16]

20 minutes ago, LouCifer said:

I want to be clear that I don’t fear the offer sheet - I encourage it. Also cross, the scenario you’re not considering is if we sign Gaudreau. If Johnny comes in at $10 or $10.5, you think the flames will match a 1 year $10.5 offer sheet for Chucky? They won’t. #1 it’s too much salary for 2 players. #2 it walks Chucky right into UFA after this season where he can sign with NJ (or anyone else for that matter) and the Flames get absolute ZERO for him. The flames will NOT match an offer sheet that walks Chucky into UFA. 

 

TD, what did Carolina do to Montreal? Didn’t they offer sheet Kotkaniemi a 1 year contract at a salary that MTL couldn’t match, and as soon as Kotkaniemi was Carolina’s, they signed him to a longer contract at a cheaper AAV. This is the game. This is the plan. This is how it’s done. 

 

Nor will any team offer him one. No team is going to give up that type of draft capital for a player who is 1 year away from UFA. 

The difference in Kotkaniemi is he was still an RFA. Canes weren't giving up those assets with the risk of losing him 1 year later. 

Should also be pointed out that Montreal could have kept him if they wanted to. They chose not to accept the offer because they didn't feel he was worth it and they were also able to acquire Dvorak who they liked more (at the time)